Bulls, Bears & Bucks #65 : Vastgoed of straks in je ondergoed

(bonuspunten voor creatieve associatie, maar bouillabaisse is vissoep..)

it ain't over 'till the fat lady sings.

voor nu speel ik de rol van fat lady wel. ik ben met zn drieen tenslotte. _{je moet toch wat blaten als tvp}

nee, serieus. voor zover ik het kan interpreteren is er gewoon nog geen zak veranderd sinds de hele ellende begon, dus waarom zou het dan nu over moeten zijn?

Goud nieuwe records en Dollar index weer onder 74.9

Something isn't right

quote:

Op woensdag 11 november 2009 10:06 schreef simmu het volgende:

nee, serieus. voor zover ik het kan interpreteren is er gewoon nog geen zak veranderd sinds de hele ellende begon, dus waarom zou het dan nu over moeten zijn?

Dat is de kern van het probleem, goed samengevat. De Grote Problemen zijn alleen maar uitgesteld, niet opgelost. Als de bom de volgende keer barst is het echt goed ellendig. Kwestie van hooguit een paar jaar.

Geithner: sterke dollar belangrijk

quote:

Op woensdag 11 november 2009 06:05 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

.

quote:

Op woensdag 11 november 2009 16:37 schreef Q. het volgende:

[..]

Dat is de kern van het probleem, goed samengevat. De Grote Problemen zijn alleen maar uitgesteld, niet opgelost. Als de bom de volgende keer barst is het echt goed ellendig. Kwestie van hooguit een paar jaar.

ik ben zelfs weer zwanger, net als in het begin

As many of you must have noted, Goldman Sachs
has been producing some truly stellar trading results
over the last two quarters. In 2Q09, the bank had only
TWO losing days. Of the winners, 45 days were days
in which Goldman cleared $100 million in profits.

That’s PER DAY.

In the 3Q09, Goldman managed to beat even its statistically
impossible second quarter performance by posting only one
(1) losing day. Yes, that’s correct, out of roughly 90 days of
trading, Goldman managed to lose money only one day.

All told, of the 199 trading days since the start of 2009,
Goldman Sachs has made more than $100 million on 116
of them. Put another way, three days out of every week of
trading, Goldman cleared $100 million in profits.

Some people might look at these numbers and suspect some
kind of foul play. After all, it’s statistically impossible to
maintain a winning streak for roughly six months straight
with only three losing days among them (which Goldman
did in 2Q09-3Q09).

The more suspicious among us might even see these data
points and remember that earlier this year one of Goldman’s
prosecutors admitted that the firm’s trading programs could
potentially be used to “manipulate markets” during a lawsuit
earlier this year.

quote:

Op donderdag 12 november 2009 19:11 schreef edwinh het volgende:
As many of you must have noted, Goldman Sachs
has been producing some truly stellar trading results
over the last two quarters. In 2Q09, the bank had only
TWO losing days. Of the winners, 45 days were days
in which Goldman cleared $100 million in profits.

That’s PER DAY.

In the 3Q09, Goldman managed to beat even its statistically
impossible second quarter performance by posting only one
(1) losing day. Yes, that’s correct, out of roughly 90 days of
trading, Goldman managed to lose money only one day.

All told, of the 199 trading days since the start of 2009,
Goldman Sachs has made more than $100 million on 116
of them. Put another way, three days out of every week of
trading, Goldman cleared $100 million in profits.

Some people might look at these numbers and suspect some
kind of foul play. After all, it’s statistically impossible to
maintain a winning streak for roughly six months straight
with only three losing days among them (which Goldman
did in 2Q09-3Q09).

The more suspicious among us might even see these data
points and remember that earlier this year one of Goldman’s
prosecutors admitted that the firm’s trading programs could
potentially be used to “manipulate markets” during a lawsuit
earlier this year.

je zo maar die systeem trade code hebben, slapend rijk worden

De recessie is dood! Lang leve de recessie!

_{(tevens tvp)}

Amerikanen leven fors meer op de pof

quote:

Op vrijdag 13 november 2009 15:00 schreef pberends het volgende:
Amerikanen leven fors meer op de pof

Je bent actiever op de FP dan hier in AEX. What's up?

quote:

Op vrijdag 13 november 2009 15:00 schreef pberends het volgende:
Amerikanen leven fors meer op de pof

Is die trend niet te wijten aan het opbouwen van voorraden van winkels voor de kerstinkopen?

quote:

Op vrijdag 13 november 2009 15:28 schreef Mendeljev het volgende:

[..]

Je bent actiever op de FP dan hier in AEX. What's up?

Zoveel boeiends is er op dit moment niet te melden. Extreem hoge volatiliteit op de markten is er (even) niet meer en er vallen ook niet elke dag grote banken om, right? Het is even wachten op de volgende domino-stenen die gaan omvallen, maar dat kan net zo goed nog een jaar duren.

quote:

Op vrijdag 13 november 2009 15:44 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Zoveel boeiends is er op dit moment niet te melden. Extreem hoge volatiliteit op de markten is er (even) niet meer en er vallen ook niet elke dag grote banken om, right? Het is even wachten op de volgende domino-stenen die gaan omvallen, maar dat kan net zo goed nog een jaar duren.

Vanavond op SBS6 toch?

quote:

Op vrijdag 13 november 2009 19:16 schreef freud het volgende:

[..]

Vanavond op SBS6 toch?

.

quote:

Op vrijdag 13 november 2009 19:28 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

.

Het zou pas echt humor zijn als ze de logo's van een aantal grote banken met steentjes aan elkaar linken en om laten donderen .

http://www.colbertnation.(...)ord---the-money-shot

November 12, 2009: The Word - The Money Shot

http://www.colbertnation.(...)achs-does-god-s-work

November 11, 2009: Goldman Sachs Does God's Work

http://www.thedailyshow.c(...)9/crash-for-clunkers

November 11, 2009: Crash for Clunkers

[ Bericht 26% gewijzigd door pberends op 14-11-2009 13:38:56 ]

Even spammen: Don't be economic girlie men! - Waarom een deflationaire crash onvermijdelijk lijkt

quote:

Op zondag 15 november 2009 23:05 schreef pberends het volgende:
Even spammen: Don't be economic girlie men! - Waarom een deflationaire crash onvermijdelijk lijkt

boeie

en bovendien een volstrekt gebrek aan kennis hoe politiek en bankwezen met elkaar vervlochten zijn, en hoe ze elkaar gebruiken

quote:

Op zaterdag 14 november 2009 17:28 schreef pberends het volgende:

Willem Middelkoop : Het financiële systeem moet op de schop Deel 1

wow...

Wat mij opvalt hoe degene om hem heen zo laconioek reageren: swa, what's the problem? Na de regen komt wel weer zonneschijn! Bah, babyboomers!

[ Bericht 12% gewijzigd door Demophon op 16-11-2009 05:27:49 ]

Obama: China goed voor welvaart

Japanse economie 'groeit'

quote:

Op zondag 15 november 2009 23:58 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:
boeie

en bovendien een volstrekt gebrek aan kennis hoe politiek en bankwezen met elkaar vervlochten zijn, en hoe ze elkaar gebruiken

Zonder tegenreactie ook weer een beetje een overbodige opmerking..

Wall Street op hoogste niveau dit jaar

quote:

De dollar kwam verder onder druk te staan nadat gesprekken over valuta tussen de VS en China in Singapore op niets waren uitgelopen. Bernanke zei in zijn toespraak in New York dat de Fed 'attent' is op veranderingen in de koers van de dollar en dat de Fed ervoor zal zorgen dat de dollar een sterke munt blijft.

Het ene zeggen... .

quote:

en dat de Fed ervoor zal zorgen dat de dollar een sterke munt blijft.

"Als de koers omlaag gaat gaan we NOG meer printen!"

Handelsoverschot eurozone stijgt fors

quote:

Op maandag 16 november 2009 20:42 schreef Q. het volgende:

[..]

"Als de koers omlaag gaat gaan we NOG meer printen!"

Misschien gaat Bernanke duurder papier/katoen gebruiken voor de dollar... zodat de intrinsieke waarde hoger wordt.

Meredith Whitney: "I Haven't Been This Bearish In A Year"

Meredith Whitney verwacht een double dip (inclusief filmpje).

Goldman Sachs heeft spijt

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 17:13 schreef pberends het volgende:
Goldman Sachs heeft spijt

Goldman heeft extreem grote short posities ingenomen!




Paints quite a picture, doesn’t it?

This alone, explains in no uncertain terms that the Financial Crisis is anything but over. Sure the Federal Reserve may have pumped $800+ billion into the financial system, yes the Fed is buying some $1.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and of course there are the Fed’s off balance sheet arrangements, which we cannot even begin to quantify.

But ALL OF THESE efforts amount to diddily-squat in the face of TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS in potential losses in the derivatives market.

Sure, the banks may not publicly state how much of their derivatives are “at risk” but when you’re talking about $200+ TRILLION (an amount equal to four times GLOBAL GDP) it doesn’t really matter how much is “at risk.” As I said before, if even 4% of this is “at risk” and 10% of that 4% goes bad, you’re talking $800 billion in equity wiped out (that’s the entire equity of the five largest commercial banks).

I know this… as does anyone who does a little homework on the banking industry. Including… THE BANKS THEMSELVES.

Goldman Sachs recently published its 13F, a quarterly filing in which all asset managers reveal their largest holdings. In it, Goldman’s asset management group reveals their largest long positions and their largest short positions.

Now, Goldie is widely held to be the “smartest” guys on Wall Street (not my opinion) so their net shorts (the stocks or companies they’re betting AGAINST) were particularly interesting to me:





The above positions combine Goldman’s long and shorts (stock and option based positions) for the NET short positions. In simple terms, Goldman MAY be long these companies, but because the bank is ALSO shorting them (and shorting more shares than it is going long) it has NET short positions. Put another way, these are the companies or positions that Goldman is betting the most money on falling in the future.

For starters, FOUR of the top 10 are financial companies. The largest financial short is Wells Fargo, which Goldman has committed $289 million to betting against. After that it’s Mastercard ($266 million), then PNC ($202 million), and finally AIG ($152 million).

Looking at Goldman’s positions, it’s plain as day that Wall Street’s “finest” do NOT believe the financial crisis is over (why are they betting against the banks if they do?). It’s also clear that Goldman’s analysts have noted as I have that both Wells Fargo and PNC both have massive exposure to the derivatives market (the fact that Goldman ALSO has massive derivative exposure is beyond ironic).

However, where things get absolutely absurd is Goldman’s short position of AIG. Goldman, as has been widely documented, was one of the largest benefactors of AIG’s bailout (the then investment bank had MASSIVE counter party exposure to AIG’s toxic balance sheet). To see Goldman now betting AGAINST AIG after receiving $13 billion in tax payer money to insure the former didn’t go under along with the latter is outrageous (if not infuriating) to say the least.

On a final note, I wanted to point out Goldman is also shorting a Euro index (betting against that currency) as well as two gold mining companies (Barrick and Agnico Eagle Mines). This indicates that Goldie is bearish on both the euro and gold which hints that Wall Street’s finest are likely betting on a US Dollar rally (that would, after all, be the most obvious catalyst for a correction in gold and the euro).

To be blunt, it’s clear that Goldman (like me) believes the financial crisis is nowhere near over: four of its top ten largest shorts are financial companies. It’s also worth noting that Goldman is betting against gold and the euro. Given Goldman’s incredible access to and close relationship with the regulators and federal government, I see this as further proof that we may be seeing another stock crisis triggered by a Dollar rally in the near future.

Indeed, if the Dollar rallies we could very well see stocks AND commodities COLLAPSE.

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 19:38 schreef edwinh het volgende:

[..]

Goldman heeft extreem grote short posities ingenomen!

[ afbeelding ]


Paints quite a picture, doesn’t it?

This alone, explains in no uncertain terms that the Financial Crisis is anything but over. Sure the Federal Reserve may have pumped $800+ billion into the financial system, yes the Fed is buying some $1.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and of course there are the Fed’s off balance sheet arrangements, which we cannot even begin to quantify.

But ALL OF THESE efforts amount to diddily-squat in the face of TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS in potential losses in the derivatives market.

Sure, the banks may not publicly state how much of their derivatives are “at risk” but when you’re talking about $200+ TRILLION (an amount equal to four times GLOBAL GDP) it doesn’t really matter how much is “at risk.” As I said before, if even 4% of this is “at risk” and 10% of that 4% goes bad, you’re talking $800 billion in equity wiped out (that’s the entire equity of the five largest commercial banks).

I know this… as does anyone who does a little homework on the banking industry. Including… THE BANKS THEMSELVES.

Goldman Sachs recently published its 13F, a quarterly filing in which all asset managers reveal their largest holdings. In it, Goldman’s asset management group reveals their largest long positions and their largest short positions.

Now, Goldie is widely held to be the “smartest” guys on Wall Street (not my opinion) so their net shorts (the stocks or companies they’re betting AGAINST) were particularly interesting to me:


[ afbeelding ]


The above positions combine Goldman’s long and shorts (stock and option based positions) for the NET short positions. In simple terms, Goldman MAY be long these companies, but because the bank is ALSO shorting them (and shorting more shares than it is going long) it has NET short positions. Put another way, these are the companies or positions that Goldman is betting the most money on falling in the future.

For starters, FOUR of the top 10 are financial companies. The largest financial short is Wells Fargo, which Goldman has committed $289 million to betting against. After that it’s Mastercard ($266 million), then PNC ($202 million), and finally AIG ($152 million).

Looking at Goldman’s positions, it’s plain as day that Wall Street’s “finest” do NOT believe the financial crisis is over (why are they betting against the banks if they do?). It’s also clear that Goldman’s analysts have noted as I have that both Wells Fargo and PNC both have massive exposure to the derivatives market (the fact that Goldman ALSO has massive derivative exposure is beyond ironic).

However, where things get absolutely absurd is Goldman’s short position of AIG. Goldman, as has been widely documented, was one of the largest benefactors of AIG’s bailout (the then investment bank had MASSIVE counter party exposure to AIG’s toxic balance sheet). To see Goldman now betting AGAINST AIG after receiving $13 billion in tax payer money to insure the former didn’t go under along with the latter is outrageous (if not infuriating) to say the least.

On a final note, I wanted to point out Goldman is also shorting a Euro index (betting against that currency) as well as two gold mining companies (Barrick and Agnico Eagle Mines). This indicates that Goldie is bearish on both the euro and gold which hints that Wall Street’s finest are likely betting on a US Dollar rally (that would, after all, be the most obvious catalyst for a correction in gold and the euro).

To be blunt, it’s clear that Goldman (like me) believes the financial crisis is nowhere near over: four of its top ten largest shorts are financial companies. It’s also worth noting that Goldman is betting against gold and the euro. Given Goldman’s incredible access to and close relationship with the regulators and federal government, I see this as further proof that we may be seeing another stock crisis triggered by a Dollar rally in the near future.

Indeed, if the Dollar rallies we could very well see stocks AND commodities COLLAPSE.

yeah sure, als ie er nou ook nog eens een overzicht van de
"The above positions combine Goldman’s long and shorts (stock and option based positions) for the NET long positions" bij had gedaan, had er nog enige conclusie uit getrokken kunnen worden. Hypertenditieus weer dit. Als Goldman short AMEX gaat, en long VISA, omdat ze VISA een beter creditcard company vinden dan AMEX, dan had de conclusie van bovenstaand artikel alleen geluid dat Goldman short AMEX is gegaan. Alleen kijken naar de net short posities zegt dus he_le_maal niks. Dat is één oog afdekken, en dan constateren dat je geen diepte ziet.

Dinosaur, wat stond er nu in het ED? Je hoeft het alleen maar kort samen te vatten hoor!

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 19:52 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Dinosaur, wat stond er nu in het ED? Je hoeft het alleen maar kort samen te vatten hoor!

meneer heeft mail

quote:

World economy setting itself up for a bigger bust, says Marc Faber



By Ryan Huang, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 19 November 2009 0321 hrs

SINGAPORE: Marc Faber - the man commonly referred to as Dr Doom by the investment community – said that the real financial crisis has yet to come for the global economy.

Speaking at a conference in Singapore on Wednesday, he said there will be another big bust stemming from credit expansion.

Mr Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report and famed for his bearish and contrarian views, is bullish about commodities and gold.

Mr Faber said: "The crisis has not solved anything. On the contrary there is less transparency today than there was before. The government's balance sheet is expanding, and the abuses that have led to the one cause of the crisis have continued.

"I think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end. But before that happens, they will print money, and they will grow into very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond.

"The average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to war. People ask me against whom? Well, they will invent an enemy."

Despite the gloom, Dr Faber is upbeat about commodities in the long term because of competition for natural resources.

"At some stage, somewhere in future, we will have a war - that you have to be prepared for. And during war times, commodities go up strongly,” said Mr Faber.

"If you want to hedge against war, you don't want to own derivatives in UBS and AIG, but you have to own them physically, like farmland and agricultural commodities. That is something to consider for you as a personal safety and hedge. You have to own some commodities," he added.

http://www.channelnewsasi(...)view/1019119/1/.html

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 20:11 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

[..]

meneer heeft mail

Bedankt!

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 19:52 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Dinosaur, wat stond er nu in het ED? Je hoeft het alleen maar kort samen te vatten hoor!

ED? Erectile dysfunction?

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 19:38 schreef edwinh het volgende:

[..]

Goldman heeft extreem grote short posities ingenomen!

[ afbeelding ]


Paints quite a picture, doesn’t it?

This alone, explains in no uncertain terms that the Financial Crisis is anything but over. Sure the Federal Reserve may have pumped $800+ billion into the financial system, yes the Fed is buying some $1.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and of course there are the Fed’s off balance sheet arrangements, which we cannot even begin to quantify.

But ALL OF THESE efforts amount to diddily-squat in the face of TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS in potential losses in the derivatives market.

Sure, the banks may not publicly state how much of their derivatives are “at risk” but when you’re talking about $200+ TRILLION (an amount equal to four times GLOBAL GDP) it doesn’t really matter how much is “at risk.” As I said before, if even 4% of this is “at risk” and 10% of that 4% goes bad, you’re talking $800 billion in equity wiped out (that’s the entire equity of the five largest commercial banks).

I know this… as does anyone who does a little homework on the banking industry. Including… THE BANKS THEMSELVES.

Goldman Sachs recently published its 13F, a quarterly filing in which all asset managers reveal their largest holdings. In it, Goldman’s asset management group reveals their largest long positions and their largest short positions.

Now, Goldie is widely held to be the “smartest” guys on Wall Street (not my opinion) so their net shorts (the stocks or companies they’re betting AGAINST) were particularly interesting to me:


[ afbeelding ]


The above positions combine Goldman’s long and shorts (stock and option based positions) for the NET short positions. In simple terms, Goldman MAY be long these companies, but because the bank is ALSO shorting them (and shorting more shares than it is going long) it has NET short positions. Put another way, these are the companies or positions that Goldman is betting the most money on falling in the future.

For starters, FOUR of the top 10 are financial companies. The largest financial short is Wells Fargo, which Goldman has committed $289 million to betting against. After that it’s Mastercard ($266 million), then PNC ($202 million), and finally AIG ($152 million).

Looking at Goldman’s positions, it’s plain as day that Wall Street’s “finest” do NOT believe the financial crisis is over (why are they betting against the banks if they do?). It’s also clear that Goldman’s analysts have noted as I have that both Wells Fargo and PNC both have massive exposure to the derivatives market (the fact that Goldman ALSO has massive derivative exposure is beyond ironic).

However, where things get absolutely absurd is Goldman’s short position of AIG. Goldman, as has been widely documented, was one of the largest benefactors of AIG’s bailout (the then investment bank had MASSIVE counter party exposure to AIG’s toxic balance sheet). To see Goldman now betting AGAINST AIG after receiving $13 billion in tax payer money to insure the former didn’t go under along with the latter is outrageous (if not infuriating) to say the least.

On a final note, I wanted to point out Goldman is also shorting a Euro index (betting against that currency) as well as two gold mining companies (Barrick and Agnico Eagle Mines). This indicates that Goldie is bearish on both the euro and gold which hints that Wall Street’s finest are likely betting on a US Dollar rally (that would, after all, be the most obvious catalyst for a correction in gold and the euro).

To be blunt, it’s clear that Goldman (like me) believes the financial crisis is nowhere near over: four of its top ten largest shorts are financial companies. It’s also worth noting that Goldman is betting against gold and the euro. Given Goldman’s incredible access to and close relationship with the regulators and federal government, I see this as further proof that we may be seeing another stock crisis triggered by a Dollar rally in the near future.

Indeed, if the Dollar rallies we could very well see stocks AND commodities COLLAPSE.

Bron: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15105.html

Ik vraag me altijd af waar die lui van zo'n weblog hun betrouwbare info vandaan halen. Die "13F filings", zijn die openbaar? Lijkt me sterk.

Wel kan ik me voorstellen dat GS er belang bij heeft dat zoiets uitlekt, maar dan kunnen ze net ze goed meteen hun hele portefeuille online zetten.

Volgens mij handelt Goldman helemaal niet zoveel in aandelen, meer in grondstoffen en valuta.

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 22:02 schreef pberends het volgende:
Volgens mij handelt Goldman helemaal niet zoveel in aandelen, meer in grondstoffen en valuta.

Nou, toch wel meer dan ik hoor!

Maareh, wat is nou die ED?

Eindhovens Dagblad!