quote:
Weber Says ECB May Need `Restrictive' Interest Rates
European Central Bank governing council member Axel Weber said the bank may need to raise interest rates to a level that restricts economic growth to keep inflation under control.
``If risks to price stability are threatening to materialize, monetary policy can't lose sight of its primary mandate -- even if that means no longer supporting the robust economy or becoming restrictive,'' Weber, who also heads Germany's Bundesbank, said in the text of a speech in Munich late yesterday. There may be an ``additional need'' to raise interest rates, given the ``expected acceleration in euro-region inflation over the coming months.''
The ECB stepped back from plans to raise rates in September, saying it wanted to assess the economic impact of rising credit costs and financial-market turbulence caused by the U.S. housing slump. Signs of discord are starting to emerge among ECB policy makers on the best way forward, with Weber the strongest advocate for another rate increase.
Weber's comments may help the euro test a record today, said Yuji Saito, head of foreign-exchange sales at Societe Generale SA in Tokyo. The euro, which has gained 9 percent against the dollar this year, rose to an all-time high of $1.4283 on Oct. 1. as investors bet the ECB won't follow the U.S. Federal Reserve in cutting rates. It traded at $1.4188 at 8:57 a.m. in Frankfurt.
Council Split?
Council members Vitor Constancio of Portugal and Klaus Liebscher from Austria have noted that the euro's appreciation is helping contain prices on imported goods such as oil, while Ireland's John Hurley and Finland's Erkki Liikanen have stressed the need to gather more information before deciding what to do with interest rates.
ECB council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez told the Spanish Parliament on Oct. 9 that market turmoil caused by defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages ``suggests an increase in downside risks or economic activity.'' It ``may also have mitigated, to a certain extent, the risks, which are still on the upside, for price stability,'' he said.
While Weber acknowledged ``increased uncertainty,'' he said the ECB needs to remain focused on fighting inflation. ``Price increases are taking place on a broad front and are no longer limited to energy and volatile food prices.''
Accelerating Inflation
Inflation accelerated beyond the ECB's 2 percent limit for the first time in over a year in September. The bank expects inflation to remain ``significantly'' above 2 percent into next year, even after eight interest-rate increases since late 2005.
The ECB left its key interest rate at 4 percent last week and dropped a phrase used in previous months that its monetary policy ``is still on the accommodative side,'' suggesting the bank no longer considers interest rates are boosting economic growth. That also suggests another increase would take rates to a level that starts to slow growth.
Weber said the economic outlook ``continues to be favorable overall for the euro region'' and the ECB's main scenario for ongoing expansion ``remains valid.''
In September the ECB forecast economic growth of about 2.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year after 2.8 percent in 2006, which was the fastest expansion since 2000.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Oct. 9 there are ``some signs'' that financial markets are returning to normal and the Frankfurt-based central bank ``stands ready to counter upside risks to price stability.''
Bloomberg.comIk vraag me af of we gaan zien dat de ECB de rente verhoogd en de FED de rente verlaagd
It is important to distinguish between a stupid person and a shit head. A stupid person simply can't process the information , a shit head is intelligent but his mind is full of garbage.