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Welkom in Bulls, Bears & Bucks, de WGR reeks (begonnen in NWS) die is voortgekomen uit de topics mbt tot de val van de dollar en de koersval op de beurzen. In dit topic kun je dan ook alles kwijt over recente ontwikkelingen op de financiële markten. Komt die recessie er nu wel of niet? Wat doen de Europese en Amerikaanse centrale banken met de hoge inflatie? Waar ligt de bodem voor de AEX en de Dow? Gaat de olieprijs nu op weg naar de 200 dollar? Komt die val van de dollar er ooit, is het een sluipmoordenaar of is dit een tijdelijke dip voor een sterke munt? Bulls, Bears & Bucks is hèt topic voor iedereen die benieuwd is naar het antwoord op één van deze vragen...

Enkele definities.
quote:
Deflation – A fall in the general price of goods and services. This problem, seen during the Great Depression, hurts economic growth as consumers wait for prices to fall. By contrast, "disinflation" is a benign reduction in the inflation rate.

Inflation – A rise in the general price of goods and services. When out of control, it constrains saving and investment in the economy. The rate of inflation is most often measured by changes in the Labor Department's consumer price index.

Recession – A sharp contraction in economic activity and employment. A common but informal measure is two consecutive quarters with a decline of national output. A recession is officially declared by a committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Boston – this occurs after the fact when final data have arrived and been analyzed.

Stagflation – A combination of stagnation (manifested as significant unemployment and slow or negative economic growth) and entrenched inflation – a phenomenon that characterized the 1970s in America.

Eerdere topics

[NWS] Dollar
De dag dat de dollar viel #01: Gaat de VS failliet ?
De dag dat de dollar viel #02: Groei Amerikaanse economie valt bijna stil
De dag dat de dollar viel #03: De Fed en ECB springen bij
De dag dat de dollar viel #04: Bloedbad op beurzen Azie
De dag dat de dollar viel #05: op naar de $ 1.40 per ¤
De dag dat de dollar viel #06: spannende ontwikkelingen!
De dag dat de dollar viel #07: 1.4087 !!! 1.41??
De dag dat de dollar viel #08: Dollar zakt verder weg
De dag dat de dollar viel #09: 1.42 in zicht.
De dag dat de dollar viel #10: Spelen rond de 1.42 grens
De dag dat de dollar viel #11: $pel zonder grenzen.
De dag dat de dollar viel #12: Zhe crisis havs returned!
De dag dat de dollar viel #13: Nieuwe Dollars.
De dag dat de dollar viel #14: De 1.50 komt erg dichtbij
De dag dat de dollar viel #15: Geld is overgewaardeerd.

[WGR] Dollar
De dollar... Hoe diep gaat hij zinken?
De Amerikaanse dollar in verval: hoe diep zinkt-ie? deel 2.

[NWS] Huidige reeks
Wereldwijde koersval beurzen #01: Recessievrees.
Wereldwijde koersval beurzen #02: Fors herstel
Wereldwijde koersval beurzen #03: Fase two in de BEAR market
Wereldwijde koersval beurzen #04: Free money for the poor.
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #05: Einde financiële crisis nog niet in zicht
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #06: Dollar zakt verder; Beurzen roodgekleurd
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #07: FED regelt bail-out voor 'n koopje.
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #08: Rente -75bp; Wall Street door het dak
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #09: Euro weer 1,58 dollar waard
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #10: Consumentenvertrouwen VS laagste in 26 jaar
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #11: Euro 1,60 dollar waard
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #12: Trichet: Ergste van kredietcrisis moet nog komen
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #13: Amerikaanse financiele meltdown
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #14: Kredietcrisis nog niet over
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #15: 400 punten sneuvelt
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #16: Weer bloedbad op beurzen
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #17: Beren nemen het roer weer over
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #18: Fed laat rente ongewijzigd
Bulls, Bears & Bucks #19: Lehman Brothers aan de beurt?


Ook handig...

Achtergronden : De Kredietcrisis.
Tegenlicht: De dag dat de dollar viel
Yahoo: Europese indices
Yahoo: Aziatische indices
Yahoo: Amerikaanse indices
Marketwatch: laatste nieuws en koersen Amerikaanse markten
De Financiële Telegraaf: Nederlands nieuws en koersen
US Markets: live koersen meeste indices, commodities
FxStreet: streaming (live) valutakoersen
De belangrijkste banken/verzekeraars (trader grafieken)


Intraday en meerjarige grafieken

Euro/Dollar - 1 jaar


Euro/Dollar - intraday


Yen/Dollar


Pond/Euro


Dow Jones - 5 jaar


S&P 500 - 5 jaar


Dow Jones - intraday


Dow Jones, S&P 500 en Nasdaq - intraday


AEX - 3 jaar


AEX - intraday


AEX / Dow Jones - 2 jaar


Hang Seng - 2 jaar


Hang Seng - intraday



OP

De OP vind je hier.
Voeg wel steeds een link naar het net gesloten topic toe, onderaan bij "[NWS] Huidige reeks" (in de Wiki dus en dan kopiëren naar FOK!).

[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door ItaloDancer op 10-09-2008 09:49:03 ]
pi_61517345
#20
  woensdag 10 september 2008 @ 10:07:03 #3
36858 Semisane
Iemand nog een koekje?
pi_61517840
tvp, want ik ben eigenlijk nog steeds benieuwd over de val van het kapitalisme en vrijemarkt principe welke vooral de grote bedrijven in USA altijd zo voorstonden en nu masaal loslaten nu ze het moeilijk hebben.

Niet alleen Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac, maar ook opeens de "oer-industie van de USA, Autoproducenten vragen Washington om hulp

Ergens toch wel komisch dat ze geheel desperaat terug in de schoot van vadertje-overheid kruipen.
Putting the Fun back into Fundamentally Wrong since 1975.
"Yes, of course, I knew you would volunteer, Mr. Feynman, but I was wondering if there would be anybody else."
pi_61517846
tvp
  woensdag 10 september 2008 @ 10:38:28 #5
78918 SeLang
Black swans matter
pi_61518593
Iedereen wil nu geld van de staat.
Doe mij ook maar een paar miljard
Verkapte tvp
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
pi_61518645
omdat ik wil weten hoe het met de dollar gaat... tvp
pi_61518676
Ik las ergens op BBC dat de Lehman bros. ook in zwaar weer zit?
  woensdag 10 september 2008 @ 10:48:00 #8
48840 Xtreem
Minimalist in training
pi_61518848
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 10:41 schreef Freak187 het volgende:
Ik las ergens op BBC dat de Lehman bros. ook in zwaar weer zit?
Is dat wat nieuws dan?

tvp
The secret to happiness is freedom...
And the secret to freedom is courage.
Thucydides
pi_61519291
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 10:07 schreef Semisane het volgende:
tvp, want ik ben eigenlijk nog steeds benieuwd over de val van het kapitalisme en vrijemarkt principe welke vooral de grote bedrijven in USA altijd zo voorstonden en nu masaal loslaten nu ze het moeilijk hebben.

Niet alleen Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac, maar ook opeens de "oer-industie van de USA, Autoproducenten vragen Washington om hulp

Ergens toch wel komisch dat ze geheel desperaat terug in de schoot van vadertje-overheid kruipen.
ja die mag wel meedelen in het verlies maar niet in de winst
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
  woensdag 10 september 2008 @ 11:07:12 #10
36858 Semisane
Iemand nog een koekje?
pi_61519307
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 10:40 schreef ktnxbye het volgende:
omdat ik wil weten hoe het met de dollar gaat... tvp
Ik begreep dat Japan en de EU in samenspraak met de USA dollars aan het aankopen waren om de koers wat te beinvloeden, klopt dit? Of is de Euro wat gezakt tegenover de Dollar omdat we in economisch iets wat ruwer weer zijn beland?
Putting the Fun back into Fundamentally Wrong since 1975.
"Yes, of course, I knew you would volunteer, Mr. Feynman, but I was wondering if there would be anybody else."
  woensdag 10 september 2008 @ 11:07:55 #11
36858 Semisane
Iemand nog een koekje?
pi_61519324
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 11:06 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:

[..]

ja die mag wel meedelen in het verlies maar niet in de winst
Wel heel sociaal eigenlijk van al die grote bedrijven.
Putting the Fun back into Fundamentally Wrong since 1975.
"Yes, of course, I knew you would volunteer, Mr. Feynman, but I was wondering if there would be anybody else."
pi_61519352
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 10:48 schreef Xtreem het volgende:

[..]

Is dat wat nieuws dan?

tvp
het was de hele zomer nieuws
elke week opnieuw, dus misschien volgende week maar weer?

edit:
nu we het toch over lehman hebben: iemand nog een put?

[ Bericht 13% gewijzigd door simmu op 10-09-2008 11:15:54 ]
Your mind don't know how you're taking all the shit you see
Dont believe anyone but most of all dont believe me
God damn right it's a beautiful day Uh-huh
pi_61519487
13:30 onze tijd Lehman cijfers + hun plan.
pi_61519932
voor de oudgedienden onder ons is dit artikel ook oud, maar het stelt e.e.a. wel mooi helder, dus ik post hem lekker toch
quote:
Kevin Depew's Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:

As the ongoing debt crisis continues, we have transitioned from Stage 1, the initial Wall Street impact of debt deleveraging, to Stage 2, the Main Street impact, and on Sunday kicked off Stage 3, the coordinated Fiscal and Monetary response to the debt crisis. Before we get to the What Next? question, let's revisit the basics of what is happening and what it means.


1. What is a "Credit Crunch"?

The simple answer is that a "credit crunch" is a general decline in the the supply of, and demand for, credit.

Under certain circumstances, the market (and sometimes the Federal Reserve) can induce a decline in the supply of credit (or at least a decline in the growth rate of the supply of credit) by raising interest rates. This makes money more expensive for borrowers, and as a result slows the growth and demand for available credit. This is what a central bank attempts to do when the growth of inflation exceeds their "comfort level."

But a credit crunch occurs when banks become more risk averse - less willing to lend - even though interest rates may remain the same, and in extreme cases, even though interest rates may go lower.

This risk aversion on the part of lenders makes it more difficult for even the most credit-worthy borrowers to obtain money at reasonable terms. In effect, interest rates - the cost of money - can become infinitely high for many borrowers. As a result, it becomes difficult to fund projects and investments, which can slow economic growth, which in turn can make lenders even more unwilling to lend; a vicious cycle of economic pain.


2. Why does credit growth matter in the first place?

Because in our fiat-based monetary system, economic growth is dependent upon credit expansion.

What does that mean? And why is it a problem?

First, a "fiat-based monetary system" is simply the name economists give to an economic system where money is created through fractional reserve banking techniques. Fractional reserve banking is the practice of issuing more money than a bank holds in cash reserves. So, in a fiat-based monetary system, if risk appetites are supportive - that is, if borrowers are willing to take on debt - then credit expansion can feed into normal risk-seeking behavior, and if excessive can foster unsustainable booms; dot.coms, housing.

As long as credit expansion and demand for credit continues at an accelerating pace, the appearance of prosperity continues as asset prices increase.

The "accelerating pace" aspect is critical. It is the key to maintaining the boom. Access to capital and credit is essential to growth in our current economy, and if that access is restrained the cycle reinforces itself.

But there are two sides to the credit coin. Access to capital is one side, but demand for capital is the other side. That is the side the central bank cannot control. A central bank can make credit available, but there must be a demand for it or it's like throwing a party no one comes to.

As this debt crisis has now entered the second stage, where the impact on Main Street begins to intensify, there will be a kickback to Wall Street in the form of sluggish consumer spending, lower economic activity and a deceleration in credit demand and risk appetites. As the New York Times reported this morning, the Federal Reserve yesterday said consumer borrowing grew at an annual rate of just 2.1 percent in July, the slowest pace since last December. The category worst hit was auto loans, where credit demand fell to its lowest level in 16 years.


3. What do we mean by "credit expansion," anyway?

First, credit is not in and of itself necessarily a bad thing. Capitalism thrives on the productive use of credit. But what has transpired over the past decade is that credit has increasingly been used as a substitute for, or to mask, weak economic growth.

Since the early 1990s, new money was created by the banking system and offered at artificially low interest rates and, later, to borrowers with increasingly low credit quality. By offering willing borrowers money at artificially low rates, this encouraged increased time preferences among economic actors, which is to say that investment horizons were lengthened and risk tolerances were widened.

This is how debt was pyramided to such an extent that one small setback, in subprime borrowing for example, resulted in such a widespread problem, problems which quickly spread to other, supposedly safe credit risks.

By offering willing borrowers money at artificially low rates, this encouraged increased time preferences among economic actors, which is to say that investment horizons were lengthened and risk tolerances were widened. This money was then overinvested and misallocated by investors in dot.com ventures and houses.

In hindsight, once the herd has dispersed, it always seems as if these investors were simply dumb. After all, who could now believe that an "undertaking of great advantage; but nobody to know what it is" could be a reasonable investment? Probably, no one. However at the time, during the South Sea Bubble of 1720, quite a few investors figured just such a company made really good economic sense. Seriously.


4. How, then, did we transition from credit expansion to a credit crunch?

Because credit expansion distorts capital investments and spending by creating the "illusion" of prosperity, when the time comes to pay back what is borrowed investors and lenders discover that they have misallocated their capital. This leads to losses because the only way to turn a misallocation of capital into a gain is to sell it at a higher price to someone who still believes it will go up in the future.

This loss of capital creates risk aversion; lenders suddenly find they are not being repaid, say, by subprime borrowers who are defaulting on their mortgages. These lenders in turn - remember this is a fractional banking system - find that because they used the repayment of these loans as collateral for loans they took out to "malinvest," suddenly discover they are unable to repay some of their debts. The lender's lender is in the same boat, as is the lender's lender's lender. So, what do these lenders do? They "de-lever." In other words, they sell whatever they can - whatever is still liquid (say, U.S. stocks, for example) in order to raise capital to repay loans. This pressures asset prices.

We then have a situation where the fear of not having money (U.S. dollars) to pay down debt spreads. This deepens further risk aversion. Time preferences shrink. Lenders in many cases cannot, or are no longer willing to, extend credit beyond the very short term, for they fear not being repaid.


5. What Next?

So what happens next?

The Fed can (and is) making even more credit available; a monetary response. This response is designed to relieve tight credit conditions among financial institutions, but so far, despite an array of special lending programs created over the past year, the creation of weird acronyms and the opening of access to the Fed's discount window to broker-dealers, the response has been weak, largely because of the size of the housing market, the speed of the housing deflation and the leverage involved.

When monetary policy is insufficient to stop the credit crunch, government can step in and create any number of mechanisms to essentially bailout lenders and borrowers; a direct fiscal response. We are seeing this happen now with Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

But by targeting asset prices and attempting to "manage the economy" the Fed and the government ironically create the conditions for a market that is too large for it to control. As a result, crashes, unwindings of speculative bubbles, become more devastating, and affect far more people in the real economy.

The next step for the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary policy will probably be to follow up the FNM, FRE bailout with a series of short-term interest rate cuts, perhaps beginning as soon as the September 16 meeting. As a series of rate cuts will likely not (at first) appear to be sufficient to kickstart credit demand (with the psychology of deflation now beginning to firmly take hold), the Fed will have little choice but to adopt the quantitative easing policy the Bank of Japan used when the typical path of monetary expansion - reductions in target short-term interest rates - failed to increase the money supply.

On the fiscal side, one consequence of the debt crisis will be new, sweeping regulations for financial institutions, as well as increases in the balance sheet of the government. The regulatory changes, some of which are already being kicked around in Washington, will further impinge the earnings ability for banks and financials.

Presently, the market is most focused on which banks will survive the crisis. As monetary and fiscal policy combines to maintain at least the appearance of no large bank failures (local and smaller regionals will be left on their own), the shift will move by early next year from fear of failure to questions about how these banks will be able to make money under a strict regulatory environment.

Meanwhile, other fiscal policy will focus on increases in public works projects targeting infrastructure, as well as increases in military spending and other government programs to help Americans deal with the transition from boom to bust and back again.

This will play out over a long period of time, almost in slow motion. There will be many meaningless policy announcements and adjustments and the captains of financials, real estate and industry will make many, many more declarations that The Bottom is in until eventually no one listens anymore. But we must realize that even now, just when it appears it is over, it is really only beginning.
bron
Your mind don't know how you're taking all the shit you see
Dont believe anyone but most of all dont believe me
God damn right it's a beautiful day Uh-huh
pi_61522525
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 10:07 schreef Semisane het volgende:
tvp, want ik ben eigenlijk nog steeds benieuwd over de val van het kapitalisme en vrijemarkt principe welke vooral de grote bedrijven in USA altijd zo voorstonden en nu masaal loslaten nu ze het moeilijk hebben.

Niet alleen Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac, maar ook opeens de "oer-industie van de USA, Autoproducenten vragen Washington om hulp

Ergens toch wel komisch dat ze geheel desperaat terug in de schoot van vadertje-overheid kruipen.
Er was al amper kapitalisme, alles zit onder zware regulatie en vooral dat laatste is debet aan de huidige systematische problemen. Dit type structuur wordt quasi-liberalisatie genoemd en is uiteindelijk nog erger dan nationalisatie. De SEC, FDIC, FSIS, etc., kunnen heel leuk individuele kleine probleempjes oplossen en symptoombestijiden, maar er komt een extreme moral hazard door en dan krijg je de huidige problemen. Kapitalisme valt het niet te noemen iig.
  woensdag 10 september 2008 @ 13:36:39 #16
36858 Semisane
Iemand nog een koekje?
pi_61522833
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 13:22 schreef geenID het volgende:

[..]

Er was al amper kapitalisme, alles zit onder zware regulatie en vooral dat laatste is debet aan de huidige systematische problemen. Dit type structuur wordt quasi-liberalisatie genoemd en is uiteindelijk nog erger dan nationalisatie. De SEC, FDIC, FSIS, etc., kunnen heel leuk individuele kleine probleempjes oplossen en symptoombestijiden, maar er komt een extreme moral hazard door en dan krijg je de huidige problemen. Kapitalisme valt het niet te noemen iig.
Toch blijft het raar dat deze bedrijven uit markten en industriën die altijd het hardst hebben geroepen dat de overheid zich vooral niet moest bemoeien met hun en hun methodes Financiele markt en auto industrie, nu het hardst rennen naar die zelfde overheid voor hulp.

Het meest triest is uiteraard dat er idd niks zal veranderen, daar de overheid waarschijnlijk niets meer zal doen dan wat symptoombestrijding en kleine niet-er-toe-doen probleempjes oplossen en de maatschappij zal laten opdraaien voor de enorme kosten die men zal moeten maken om deze bedrijven te redden.
Putting the Fun back into Fundamentally Wrong since 1975.
"Yes, of course, I knew you would volunteer, Mr. Feynman, but I was wondering if there would be anybody else."
  woensdag 10 september 2008 @ 13:49:37 #17
78918 SeLang
Black swans matter
pi_61523130
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 13:36 schreef Semisane het volgende:

[..]

Toch blijft het raar dat deze bedrijven uit markten en industriën die altijd het hardst hebben geroepen dat de overheid zich vooral niet moest bemoeien met hun en hun methodes Financiele markt en auto industrie, nu het hardst rennen naar die zelfde overheid voor hulp.

Het meest triest is uiteraard dat er idd niks zal veranderen, daar de overheid waarschijnlijk niets meer zal doen dan wat symptoombestrijding en kleine niet-er-toe-doen probleempjes oplossen en de maatschappij zal laten opdraaien voor de enorme kosten die men zal moeten maken om deze bedrijven te redden.
Wat betreft Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac etc: dit is natuurlijk geen bailout voor de aandeelhouders.



"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
pi_61523599
quote:
Lehman posts $3.9 billion loss, selling assets

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Lehman Bros. Holdings on Wednesday said it lost $3.9 billion in the third quarter after taking a gross mark-to-market loss of $7.8 billion. The company also said it cut its quarterly dividend to 5 cents a share from 68 cents a share and will spin off its commercial real-estate holdings to shareholders while selling a majority stake in its Neuberger Berman investment-management division.

Lehman's third-quarter loss amounted to $5.62 a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research had been looking for the company to report a loss of $2.81 a share, while Morgan Stanley predicted the financial firm would post a loss of $2.80 a share, on the back of a $3.5 billion write-down.

The firm said late Tuesday that it would report third-quarter results before the open Wednesday, a week earlier than had been anticipated, in a bid to calm investors shaken by a session that wiped out nearly half of the brokerage firm's market. Shares of Lehman, which had been scheduled to report results on Sept. 18, fell about 45% on Tuesday, plunging to $7.79. It was the company's biggest one-day percentage decline ever, dragging the share price down 85% from where it stood a year ago.

Pressure has been building on Lehman to disclose its financial status as financial markets have grown increasingly concerned over its ability to raise capital and shed underperforming assets, against a backdrop of the government taking over Freddie Mae and Freddie Mac and, earlier this year, Bear Stearns collapsing. Underscoring concerns about the brokerage's financial health, Standard & Poor's put Lehman credit ratings under review for possible downgrade on Tuesday.
  woensdag 10 september 2008 @ 17:28:01 #19
78918 SeLang
Black swans matter
pi_61528237
Euro nu 1.4020.
Nog even en het is weer 1.39....
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
pi_61528504
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 13:49 schreef SeLang het volgende:


Wat betreft Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac etc: dit is natuurlijk geen bailout voor de aandeelhouders.
Nee dat niet, maar de topmensen die jaarlijks door hun "geniale" belleggingstrategien heel riante bonussen kregen blijven buiten schot.

Ik zou willen dat wij de fiscus zo kunnen oplichten totdat we falliet gaan en dat ze ons dan een aai over de bol geven en vervolgens in de schuld hulp verlening storten. De boten en andere dure bezitting die we nog hebben zijn in het buitenland en over 3 jaar zijn we weer klaar voor een volgende start.
pi_61528551
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 17:28 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Euro nu 1.4020.
Nog even en het is weer 1.39....
Waar halen europa / het midden oosten/ azie alle geld vandaan om die steunaankopen te financieren. Zijn wij nu om de VS te blijven steunen ook met hele wereld een volgende credit bubble aan het creeren?
pi_61529368
TVP
The problem is not the occupation, but how people deal with it.
pi_61530938
quote:
Op woensdag 10 september 2008 13:49 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Wat betreft Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac etc: dit is natuurlijk geen bailout voor de aandeelhouders.

[ afbeelding ]

[ afbeelding ]
Als de US overheid verstandig is dan brengt ze nieuwe zelfstandige hypotheek ondernemingen naar de beurs en laat ze het huidige pakket aflopen en bij verlenging elders oversluiten, anders komen ze nooit van die companys af
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