Bulls, Bears & Bucks #14: Kredietcrisis nog niet over

quote:

indahnesia.com - zondag 1 juni 2008 @ 16:48
quote:Op zondag 1 juni 200815:35 schreef vastgoedzeepbel het volgende:
Er is helemaal niets aan de hand, geloof me.. [afbeelding]
* indahnesia.com insert plaatje voormalige minister van informatie van Irak.

quote:

Op zondag 1 juni 200821:37 schreef freud het volgende:
Ben benieuwd wat er gaat gebeuren. Ik heb niet meer het idee dat de markt nog reageert op het nieuws, maar dat het danst naar hele andere touwtjes...

quote:

Op zondag 1 juni 2008 21:29 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
Maandag: construction spending, ISM
Dinsdag: autoverkopen, fabrieksorders
Woensdag: ISM services, olievoorraden
Donderdag: uitkeringsaanvragen
Vrijdag: banenrapport, groothandelsvoorraden, consumentenkrediet

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 juni 2008 03:46 schreef Bolkesteijn het volgende:

De heren statistici/macro-economen weten zich wel aan het werk te houden zeg.

quote:

Continental European countries created legislation that made speculation harder: forbidding futures contracts in agricultural products, which were blamed for making prices swing wildly, and setting a high minimum value for shares. The German stock exchange law of 1896 made it possible for investors to sue their brokers if they had been given advice that led to losses.

quote:

Lehman Options Show Investors Bet on Further Drop (Update1)

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Investors in the options and debt- derivatives markets are betting Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has further to fall amid concern the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm may need a capital injection.

Options traders increased their bearish positions to a two- month high yesterday, after analysts said Lehman may report its first quarterly loss since going public in 1994. Credit-default swaps on the New York-based firm jumped 19 basis points to 275 today, according to CMA Datavision prices. The contracts rise when investors' perceptions of credit quality decline.

Lehman, which dropped to an almost five-year low on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, declined 6 percent in early New York trading to $28.80. They are down 53 percent this year, the worst performance on the 11-company Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index. Lehman may seek funds from overseas investors, including at least one in South Korea, the Wall Street Journal reported today without citing sources.

``Lehman may need to raise equity capital,'' said Bank of America Corp. analyst Michael Hecht in a report to clients. He estimates the company will report a second-quarter loss of about 50 cents a share during the week of June 16.

Trading of Lehman put options rose to 283,676 contracts, or quadruple the 20-day average, and bearish bets on the company exceeded bullish ones by 1.6-to-1. The most-active contracts were June $30 puts, which gained 68 percent to $3.35. Trading in put options that give investors the right to sell the stock at $17.50 by June 21 rose to almost 14,000 contracts yesterday.

Bondholder Risk

``If there is a risk, and we do not think so, it is for shareholders and not bondholders,'' Andrea Crepaz, a Munich- based credit analyst at UniCredit, wrote in a note to investors today.

Lehman shares fell yesterday by the most since March 17, the day after Bear Stearns Cos. agreed to be acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in order to stave off potential bankruptcy. The decline occurred even after Lehman denied borrowing from the Federal Reserve and said the firm's cash holdings have increased.

The company had more than $40 billion of liquid assets at the end of the quarter, up from $34 billion three months earlier, Treasurer Paolo Tonucci said in an e-mailed statement. The last time Lehman borrowed from the Fed was on April 16, he said.

Lehman was the most actively traded stock on U.S. exchanges yesterday, with more than 136 million shares changing hands.

Hedging Losses

The firm lost $500 million to $700 million on hedging positions in the second quarter, which may prompt it to seek more capital by selling a stake to an outside investor, the Financial Times reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

The Wall Street Journal said Lehman may seek capital from Seoul-based Korea Development Bank and Woori Financial Group. Officials at the South Korean companies declined to comment.

``Korean banks have ample capital to make investments in the U.S., which may provide good opportunities for them,'' said Ko Seoung Pil, who helps oversee the equivalent of $2 billion at CJ Asset Management Co. in Seoul.

Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld said at the annual shareholders meeting in April that ``the worst is behind us'' in the credit-market contraction that has cost the world's biggest banks and brokerages more than $387 billion.

Writedowns and Losses

Financial-services firms have been forced to raise $283 billion to cover the losses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, has raised the most, pulling in more than $44 billion with a combination of stock sales and private offerings to investment funds controlled by foreign governments including Abu Dhabi.

Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of Lehman and bigger New York-based competitors Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co. two days ago, saying they may disclose more writedowns for devalued assets. Lehman's credit rating was cut to A from A+, as was Merrill's.

quote:

Moody's may downgrade Ambac, MBIA ratings

Moody's places Ambac, MBIA ratings on review for possible downgrade

NEW YORK (AP) -- Moody's Investors Service said Wednesday it may cut its 'AAA' ratings on bond insurers MBIA and Ambac -- which are essential to ensuring the companies can book new business.

The ratings service said it is reviewing its 'AAA' insurance financial strength ratings on Ambac Assurance Corp. and MBIA Insurance Corp. and that the "most likely" outcome of the review will be a downgrade. Such a move could increase borrowing costs for cities and counties already struggling with lower tax revenue amid the housing crisis and weak economy.

ADVERTISEMENT
Moody's said its prior analysis of MBIA indicated that its capital position was sufficient to maintain a triple-A rating. However, the company's diminishing new business prospects, combined with the potential for higher losses within its insurance portfolio, have raised concerns over whether the ratings are consistent with MBIA's current credit profile, Moody's said.

"MBIA's new business volume has been severely hampered by heightened uncertainty surrounding mortgage-related portfolio losses and the impact that such losses could have on the company's claims-paying ability," Moody's said.

In a statement, MBIA Chairman and Chief Executive Jay Brown said he is surprised by the ratings action. He said there have been no material adverse changes in the environment, nor has the company's capital position changed materially, since the ratings were given a negative outlook in February.

"Our policyholders and shareholders should understand that Moody's decision to review our ratings is not motivated by concerns over our solvency or our ability to pay claims as they come due," said Brown. "There is no question about our ability to cover all policyholder claims, from a regulatory or any other standpoint."

Despite raising $1.5 billion in new capital in March, Ambac's financial flexibility has deteriorated, Moody's said. A decline in the firm's market capitalization and high spreads on its debt securities makes it difficult for the company to address potential capital shortfalls.

"We are disappointed by the Moody's announcement, particularly in light of the significant progress we have made to strengthen our capital position and refocus our business," Ambac said in a statement.

The company anticipates a $500 million capital cushion by the end of the second quarter and said it has no current plans to raise additional capital.

"Our highest priority is to build a capital cushion that will further solidify our balance sheet and protect our policyholders," Ambac said, adding that the board and management continue to explore all strategic alternatives.

As defaults among mortgages skyrocketed beginning last year, ratings agencies and investors worried bonds backed by pools of the troubled loans would increasingly default as well. That would then lead to a spike in claims for insurers that would sap their capital reserves.

In recent quarters, bond insurers have been increasing loss reserves and trying to raise new capital to cover a potential spike in claims and maintain adequate reserves.

Downgrades to bond insurers can also make it more expensive for municipalities and other institutions to borrow money for an array of projects, ranging from the construction of new schools to updating sewer systems.

Bond insurers essentially back a bond by agreeing to pay principal and interest if the bond issuer misses payments. In return for the insurance, a municipality typically will be able to use the insurer's "AAA" rating to get a lower interest rate and thus save money.

Without that "AAA" rating on a bond pledged by the insurer, investors will charge municipalities more to borrow money. Those higher costs can be passed down to taxpayers in the form of higher taxes.

Ambac shares plunged 50 cents, or 16.7 percent, to $2.50 in afternoon trading, while MBIA shares dropped $1, or 15 percent, to $5.69.

quote:

'Fed-bankier uit bezorgdheid over eigen beleid'
5 juni 2008, 17:43 | FD.nl/Betten

Amsterdam (BETTEN FINANCIAL NEWS) - Stappen die de Federal Reserve heeft genomen om de kredietcrisis te bestrijden, verstoren de privemarkten, moedigen riskant gedrag aan en kunnen de onafhankelijkheid van de Fed in gevaar brengen. Dat heeft president Jeffrey Lacker van de Federal Reserve Bank van Richmond donderdag gezegd tijdens een toespraak in Londen, zo schrijft The Wall Street Journal.

De uitspraken van Lacker tonen aan dat de bezorgdheid van buitenstaanders, vooral over de reddingsactie rond Bear Stearns, gedeeld worden binnen de Fed. Onder andere voormalig Fed-voorzitter Paul Volcker uitte eerder al kritiek op de acties van het Amerikaanse stelsel van centrale banken.

quote:

Voortbestaan_MBIA_en_Ambac_onzeker

6 juni 2008, 9:26 uur | FD.nl
Het voortbestaan van de Amerikaanse obligatieverzekeraars MBIA en Ambac hangt aan een zijden draadje. Dat zeggen analisten in een reactie op kritische rapporten van kredietbeoordelaars Moody’s en S&P.


Moody’s heeft de twee bedrijven woensdag op de lijst gezet om te worden afgewaardeerd. Als Ambac en MBIA hun balansen niet versterken, verliezen zij binnen zestig dagen hun eersteklas kredietoordeel AAA. S&P verlaagde gisteren zijn rating voor de bedrijven AA, maar laat weten dat die wijziging nog niet definitief is.

De obligatieverzekeraars zijn van hun AAA-status afhankelijk. De obligaties die zij garanderen, krijgen ook het predicaat ‘superveilig’. Hierdoor kunnen bedrijven die obligaties uitgeven goedkoper lenen. Daarvoor betalen zij de obligatieverzekeraars. Samen verzekeren Ambac en MBIA voor meer dan $ 1000 mrd aan obligaties. ‘De mogelijkheid voor Ambac en MBIA om als geloofwaardige bedrijven door te gaan, is hoogst twijfelachtig’, aldus een analist van researchbureau CreditSights.

Eind 2007 kwamen de obligatieverzekeraars in de problemen. Toen werd duidelijk dat de ‘monoline insurers’ niet genoeg kapitaalbuffers hebben voor de obligaties die zij hebben verzekerd. De afgelopen jaren zijn de monolines namelijk steeds riskantere leningen gaan verzekeren, waaronder hypotheekobligaties, die hard zijn getroffen door de kredietcrisis.

Uit het rapport van Moody’s blijkt echter dat Ambac en MBIA, de twee grootste monoline insurers, al maanden nauwelijks nieuwe opdrachten krijgen. Begin dit jaar deden MBIA en Ambac nog hun uiterste best om een afwaardering te voorkomen. Samen trokken ze voor meer dan $ 4 mrd aan vers kapitaal aan.

Nu lijken de bestuursvoorzitters van de twee bedrijven zich in hun lot te schikken. Vers kapitaal aantrekken is erg moeilijk, omdat de aandelen van de bedrijven hard zijn gedaald op de beurs.

quote:

Werkloosheid VS stijgt sterker dan verwacht
06-06-2008 15:03:11

Amsterdam (BETTEN FINANCIAL NEWS) - In de Verenigde Staten is de werkloosheid in mei gestegen met 5,5%, de scherpste maandelijkse stijging in 22 jaar. Dit heeft Amerikaanse Bureau of Labor Statistics vrijdag bekendgemaakt.

De toename is groter dan verwacht door economen, die rekenden op een percentage van 5,1%. Een maand eerder bedroeg de werkloosheid nog 5,0%.

Het aantal banen nam in de maand mei minder sterk af dan verwacht. Het Bureau of Labor Statistics meldde een daling van 49.000, waar economen waren uitgegaan van een daling met 60.000 banen.

In april daalde het aantal banen nog met 28.000, herzien van een eerder gemelde afname van 20.000.

Het gemiddeld uurloon, een belangrijke indicator voor de inflatie, steeg op maandbasis met 0,3%. In april steeg het gemiddeld uurloon nog met 0,1%.

De cijfers over de Amerikaanse banenmarkt worden gezien als een belangrijke indicator voor de ontwikkeling van de Amerikaanse economie. Zo is de banengroei een belangrijke aanjager voor de consumentenbestedingen. Zo'n tweederde van de Amerikaanse economie bestaat uit consumentenbestedingen.

Ben Zwirs
ben@bfn.com