quote:

CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:

1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

quote:

Wederom een druk orkaanseizoen verwacht

Het Atlantisch orkaanseizoen van 2011 zal na verwachting net zo druk gaan verlopen als in 2010, dat hebben meteorologen van het Colorado State University bekend gemaakt. Er wordt verwacht, dat er 17 tropische stormen gaan ontstaan waarvan er negen zullen uit groeien tot orkaan. Vijf van de negen orkanen zullen uitgroeien tot "major hurricane" van categorie 3 of hoger, met windsnelheden van minstens 178 km per uur of hoger. Het Atlantisch orkaanseizoen loopt van 1 juni tot en met 30 november.

Vorig orkaanseizoen kwamen er 19 tropische stormen voor, waarvan er 12 uitgroeiden tot orkaan. Van deze twaalf orkanen kregen er vijf de status major hurricane. Het orkaanseizoen van 2010 staat op de derde plaats wat betreft de activiteit, alleen in de jaren 1887 en 1995 werden er meer stormen geregistreerd. In een gemiddeld orkaanseizoen brengt ongeveer elf stormen voort. Zes hiervan bereiken orkanen status. Twee orkanen groeien uit tot major hurricane in de Atlantische Oceaan, het Caribisch gebied en de Golf van Mexico.

Boven de Atlantische Oceaan, de Caribische Zee en de Golf van Mexico komen tijdens El Niño gemiddeld minder orkanen voor in tegenstelling tot de periode van La Niña, waarin er meer orkanen onstaan. Aan de westkust van Mexico en de Verenigde staten komen bij El Niño juist meer orkanen aan land. Men verwacht, dat het onwaarschijnlijk is, dat er een El Niño zich zal gaan ontwikkelen. Dit houdt in, dat er een actief orkaanseizoen aan zit te komen, aldus Philip Klotz, hoofd van Colorado State Universiteit.

Er is een grote mate van onzekerheid in de prognoses, maar meteorologen zijn nauwkeuriger geworden in het analyseren van grootschalige patronen en het voorspellen van een orkaanseizoen. Dit kan nuttig zijn voor het bedrijfsleven waaronder verzekeraars, boeren en energiemaatschappijen, die getroffen kunnen gaan worden door orkanen.

Op korte termijn zijn de weerpatronen bepalend, net zoals afgelopen jaar. Niemand voorzag, dat de droge lucht massa's en de straalstroom ervoor zorgden, dat de stormen en orkanen zich verwijderden van het vaste land van de Verenigde Staten. Vorig haar heeft geen enkele van de 12 gevormde orkanen de kust van de Verenigde Staten bereikt, waardoor de inwoners voor grote rampen bespaard zijn gebleven. Gemiddeld komt één op de vier orkanen aan land. Dit jaar verwachten de meteorologen, dat enkele orkanen wel het vaste land gaan bereiken.

quote:

En natuurlijk volgen we ze allemaal op de voet! Voor zowel Atlantische, Indische als Pacifische stormen kan je hier terecht

quote:

Zes cyclonen
De ellende is nog lang niet voorbij in Australië. In Queensland vrezen specialisten dat het stormseizoen nog een grote cycloon in petto heeft. Het seizoen duurt nog drie maanden en dus zou er nog veel neerslag uit de lucht kunnen vallen. Zeker tot woensdag zal het waterniveau blijven stijgen.

In november hadden weerkundigen een seizoen met zes cyclonen voorspeld

quote:

Tropical disturbance NE of Vanuatu now upgraded to FAIR by JTWC. Forecast to be slow moving, big rain threat for New Caledonia and Vanuatu!

quote:

At 9am Monday another low was located near 15S 112E and was nearly stationary.
This low is currently in an unfavourable environment but conditions for
development are likely to improve by Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High

quote:

Op dinsdag 11 januari 2011 16:29 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Gaat die dan die bosbranden daar blussen?

quote:

At 8am WST Tuesday a low [09U] was located near 14.9S 108.3E and was moving west
at 19 kilometres per hour. This low is likely to develop into a tropical
cyclone on Wednesday, by which time it will be tracking eastwards towards the
Pilbara coast. It is not expected to affect the coast on Wednesday or Thursday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
Friday :High

quote:

Tropical Cyclone Vania may hit New Zealand
A tropical cyclone may be heading for New Zealand as a tropical depression continues to deepen.

According to WeatherWatch.co.nz, the tropical depression is currently lying over warm waters between Vanuatu and New Caledonia.

And the conditions are favourable for it to become a tropical cyclone, with New Caledonia likely to take a direct hit.

"A direct hit to New Zealand is not out of the question,” says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

He says the storm may have an impact on the upper half of New Zealand.

"We still have no clear path on where this tropical storm will track but the North Island does look as though it will be in its sights.

"One model shows the low drifting across the North Island from the Taranaki region, while the other two models favour a Northland or East Cape strike.

“It's possible there's a fourth option where the low is pushed further east of the country, but either way it's something we should be aware of,” says Mr Duncan.

On the up side, Mr Duncan says heavy rain appears to be the main feature with this low, which may bring much needed water to dry parts of the North Island, but potentially a wet and windy time for campers in Northland and Coromandel Peninsula.

"The low is likely to start impacting New Zealand at the weekend. It's too early to be sure of its exact path so we advise people to keep up to date with WeatherWatch.co.nz news updates over the coming days.”

Mr Duncan says there is currently a moderate chance of New Zealand being impacted by the low.

quote:

WA operators on Cyclone alert

Tropical cyclone Vince is headed towards Australia's north-west coast, home to some of the country’s largest oil and gas facilities.

The weather bureau said the cyclone was currently 1050 km north-west of the town of Exmouth and is expected to move south-east for the next 48 hours and then curve back to the south-west, moving parallel to the coast.

Much of Australia's offshore oil and gas production, including the A$20 billion (US$19.742 billion) North West Shelf liquefied natural gas export project operated by Woodside , are located off the north-west coast.

Apache Energy is currently monitoring the cyclone movement, which may approach Apache facilities in the area over the next two to three days, but has taken no further action, Reuters reported.

Woodside said that it was preparing its facilities, but that there was currently no impact to production.

Woodside, Apache Energy, and BHP Billiton have all been forced to shut offshore operations as a precaution for brief periods since the beginning of the current cyclone season.

Cyclones off Australia's north-west annually force offshore oil and gas platforms to shut down temporarily.

Australia is facing almost double the usual number of destructive tropical cyclones, possibly as many as 22, during the current cyclone season, the weather bureau said in October.

The largest increase in cyclones is expected off the north-west, with 11-12 cyclones predicted, compared with an average of seven.

quote:

Op donderdag 6 januari 2011 18:55 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Interessant... voor 2010 werd een boven gemiddeld orkaanseizoen voorspeld... toch leek dat eigenlijk niet zo, want de US werd zo goed als niet getroffen, maar toch waren er aardig wat stormen.

quote:

Op woensdag 12 januari 2011 19:57 schreef cynicus het volgende:

[..]

Eh, is de definitie van "een bovengemiddeld orkaanseizoen" dat de USA vaak getroffen dient te worden? Lijkt me niet.

Dat de USA afgelopen jaar niet vaak geraakt is komt door heersende windstromingen en niet doordat er weinig orkanen of stormen waren, imho.

NOAA noemt 2010 zelfs een extreem druk Atlantisch orkaanseizoen...

quote:

New Caledonia on cyclone alert

New Caledonia's Loyalty Islands were on maximum alert for Cyclone Vania after it brought gale-force winds to Vanuatu.

The New Caledonian domestic airline grounded all flights until further notice.

The category 2 storm damaged food crops and small buildings in Vanuatu.

The weather bureau said it received widespread reports of low-level damage but communication with some islands, including Tanna, was cut after a phone tower was blown over.

New Caledonian officials say it could bring winds of up to 110 kilometres an hour to the Loyalty Islands and to the main island later.

Low-lying areas have been evacuated, businesses and schools are closed, and residents have been warned to take shelter and avoid coastal areas.

quote:

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal five south (13.5S)
longitude one hundred and forty nine decimal six east (149.6E)
Recent movement : north northwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 997 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 15/25 knots, increasing to 25/35 knots over the northern half.

Very rough seas developing.


Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 14 January: Within 150 nautical miles of 13.2 south 150.8 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 14 January: Within 180 nautical miles of 14.4 south 152.1 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

quote:

Norfolk Island spared cyclone's wrath

Norfolk Island has been spared the full force of Tropical Cyclone Zelia, which is now moving to the east of the island.

Earlier, it was predicted to move directly across the island but it is currently about 60 kilometres to the north-east and is rapidly moving further off shore.

The weather bureau says it has been downgraded to a category two cyclone and is unlikely to cause any significant damage.

The bureau says winds could reach gale force in the next few hours and seas could rise up to seven metres.

quote:

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Tropical Cyclone Anthony is moving east in the northern Coral Sea and slowly
strengthening. Likelihood of TC Anthony remaining a tropical cyclone in Eastern
Region on:

Monday: High
Tuesday: High
Wednesday: High

quote:

Potential Cyclones:
At 8am WST a tropical low was located just off the Kimberley coast near latitude
14.3S longitude 128.8E, about 75 kilometres west of Port Keats, moving north at
6 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move in a generally westwards
direction and be in the Western region [west of 125E] just off the Kimberley
coast on Tuesday. During the week the low is expected to move towards the
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone late on Tuesday or more likely on Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Monday :Low
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High

quote:

Op zondag 23 januari 2011 13:31 schreef aloa het volgende:
Anthony gaat rechtsomkeer maken en lijkt (volgens GFS) over een aantal dagen aan land te gaan in het noorden van Queensland. Wat voor nieuwe overstromingen kan gaan zorgen.

[ afbeelding ]

Wilma ligt nu boven de Samoa eilanden en zal koers zetten richting de Tonga eilanden.

[ afbeelding ]

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Tropical Cyclone Anthony is moving east southeast over the central Coral Sea.
Likelihood of Tropical Cyclone Anthony remaining as a cyclone in the Eastern
Region on:

Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate

quote:

Wilma has hit American Samoa
Tropical Cyclone Wilma has hit American Samoa and triggered alerts in other island countries in the central South Pacific, Radio New Zealand International reported on Monday.

American Samoa's Emergency Center said the Category 1 storm has winds of up to 110 km/h and gusts in excess of 130 km/h.

The storm has hit eastern villages, downing power lines, and is due to sweep over the western island of Tutuila.

So far there have been some landslides and debris on the road reported, as well as minor damage to some roofs and houses.

A marine warning said there was a hazardous surf up to 5 meters high throughout the storm, causing some flooding.

Pago Pago International Airport is still closed and it's not clear when inter island flights can resume.

American Samoa Governor, Togiola Tulafono, has activated the Emergency Operations Center, bringing together ten government agencies for a coordinated response.

As the cyclone heads south, it will also affect Samoa's main island, Upolu.

An alert is also in place for Tonga's northern islands.

For Tokelau, an alert is still in force, but winds there are expected to ease.

quote:

A Tropical Cyclone Advice [IDW24100] is current for a developing tropical low.
At 8am WST Monday a tropical low was located over the north Kimberley near
latitude 14.7S longitude 127.1E, about 65 kilometres southeast of Kalumburu,
moving west at 16 kilometres per hour. Please refer to the latest Advice. The
low is expected to move in a generally westwards direction and be in the Western
region [west of 125E] just off the Kimberley coast on Tuesday. During the week
the low is expected to move towards the southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Tuesday or more likely on
Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High

quote:

Tropical Cyclone Brings Heavy Rain to Western Australia


A tropical cyclone will continue to affect northwestern Australia over the next few days. The cyclone formed Sunday over the Timor Sea and quickly moved inland across the Kimberley area of Western Australia. It is expected to reemerge offshore, gain strength, and brush much of the northern coast of Western Australia over the next few days.
Heavy rainfall has affected areas along the track of the cyclone. Kalumburu had 6.42 inches Monday, and Theda had nearly 7 inches.
The cyclone is maintaining good organization despite being over land. It will emerge back into the Indian Ocean early Tuesday, local time. It should quickly gain tropical storm strength, then parallel the Kimberley coast through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are most likely in the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, and Kuri Bay. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the towns of Port Hedland and Exmouth Wednesday and Thursday.
Port Hedland is Australia's busiest port. It serves as an export point for iron ore, and other minerals mined across Western Australia. However, Port Hedland should not suffer a direct hit by the cyclone.
Fortunately, Western Australia has been spared the devastating flooding that has affected much of the rest of the country.

quote:

Tropical Cyclone activity heats up near Australia
The year's first Category 4 tropical cyclone is Tropical Cyclone Wilma, which is churning the waters near Tonga in the Southern Hemisphere with sustained winds of 135 mph (minimum Category 4 strength.) Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm. Substantial damage has been reported on Tonga, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is recurving out to sea, and will not affect Australia.

Australia is keeping an eye on Tropical Cylone Bianca, which is expected to skirt the northwest coast of the country over the next few days. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm late this week and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. This is potentially terrible news for Australia, which is attempting to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.

quote:

Op woensdag 26 januari 2011 15:37 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

quote:

SITUATION

At 0600 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal four south (17.4S)
longitude one hundred and fifty four decimal eight east (154.8E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony may redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the
next 6 to 18 hours.

quote:

Cyclone Wilma to rock north


Parts of the upper North Island are in for a gusty weekend with exceptionally strong winds and possible flooding forecast as a cyclone moves past the country.

Tropical Cyclone Wilma is near New Caledonia and is due here late tomorrow night, the MetService says.

"It should sideswipe the northeastern parts of Northland on Saturday morning, then get pushed off to the southeast and sideswipe Gisborne on Sunday evening. Then it will move way off to the east of us," said MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt.

The MetService has issued severe rain warnings for Auckland, eastern Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne for tomorrow morning, saying slips or flooding are possible.

The heaviest rainfall is expected in Northland where 150mm to 200mm may fall within 24 hours. Mr McDavitt said the rain would be accompanied by gales.

"The cyclone has very tight isobars around it which makes the winds very strong."

Weather Watch chief analyst Philip Duncan said the upper North Island might have flooding similar to last Sunday's.

"Because it's a tropical storm it has very, very heavy rain which is not too good for the long weekend. And the winds will be gale force further north which is exceptionally strong ...

"But the good news is that when the winds pick up you know the rain's about to stop."

He said the cyclone would not affect the temperature and he has forecast between 24C and 26C for most of the upper North Island.

"The humidity may increase a little bit, but it won't get as bad as we've had recently."

Mr Duncan said the severe wind and rain would move off the country quickly with the promise of clear weather on Sunday and Monday.

"It's a quite a fast-moving weather system."

quote:

Cyclones menace WA, north Queensland

Emergency services are keeping a close eye on three cyclones approaching the coasts of North Queensland and Western Australia's south-west respectively.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony has reformed into a category one system off North Queensland and has turned back towards land.

The weather bureau says the cyclone reformed this morning and is about 950 kilometres north-north-east of Townsville.

Forecaster Greg Connor says it is likely to cross the coast between Cooktown and Mackay sometime early Monday morning.

"We do expect it to intensify. It's probable that it will get to category one or two, but there is the possibility it will get to category three before it gets to the coast," he said.

"The big danger with Anthony is that it's starting to move now towards the coast and we're likely to be putting out a cyclone watch for the coastal listening area for this evening from 5:00pm onwards."

Another system is off Fiji and could hit Queensland as a category four or five cyclone as early as next Thursday.

This system potentially poses the bigger threat to Queensland.

Premier Anna Bligh says she has reactivated the state's disaster management group to deal with the threat.

Ms Bligh also says the associated rain could bring more flooding.

And authorities along the south-west coast of Western Australia are preparing for possible damage from Cyclone Bianca.

The bureau says there is a significant risk that Bianca, a category three system, could maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday.

Forecasters have issued a cyclone watch for areas including Perth, Bunbury and Busselton. The cyclone passed Exmouth overnight, bringing strong winds but no reports of damage.

Wild weather

Bureau regional director Mike Bergin says although Bianca is expected to weaken to a category one system overnight, there will likely be very wild weather on Sunday.

"[There will be] damaging wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour, so that will see severe to extreme fire danger with the northerly winds," he said.

"We'll be seeing very rough seas, increasing swells, significant wave heights probably up towards four metres. We'll probably see beach erosion as well."

The United States Navy website suggests the cyclone will cross the coast very close to Perth.

Fire and Emergency Services spokesman Allen Gale says the cyclonic activity will bring a mixture of problems.

"One of the big effects is the fire danger weather on Sunday - that will be a very significant, possibly up to a catastrophic [level warning]," he said.

Mr Bergin describes the cyclone as an "evolving story" and says people in the area should keep informed.

"Bianca still has a considerable distance to travel, better than 1,500 kilometres across the Indian Ocean," he said.

"So the uncertainties in the time of arrival are significant but the risk is very high."

The bureau has also warned low-lying coastal areas may be flooded.

But it says Bianca is not expected to be as bad as Cyclone Alby which hit Perth in 1978.

Alby claimed five lives and caused widespread damage in the Perth metropolitan area.

Earlier today a red alert was lifted for Exmouth and Coral Bay as the cyclone headed away from the coast.

Queensland Deputy Police Commissioner Ian Stewart says residents in the danger zone need to be prepared.

"I'd be asking people to think about stocking up on essential items, but there is no need for panic buying," he said.

"Make sure they have fuel in their vehicles, items in their yards and around their houses that could become missiles are put away or tied down."

quote:

Rough night ahead for North Islanders

Much of the North Island is in for a night of strong winds and heavy rain as the tail of a cyclone passes over.
And there are severe weather warnings in place.
The low causing the conditions used to be known as tropical cyclone Wilma. It has weakened on its way here, so it is no longer a cyclone. But it is still bringing plenty of rain down across Northland, through Auckland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty, and out to the East Coast.
Northland has already been getting drenched since this afternoon, and with the ground up there already wet, the heavy rain is bound to cause flooding, although conditions should ease by the morning.
There is also a strong wind warning for eastern areas.
The torrential rain and strong winds are going to carry on throughout the night in Northland, Auckland and in the central and eastern North Island.
Many areas are looking at getting at least 100 millimetres of rain overnight.
These conditions can cause flooding and wind damage, and will certainly make driving conditions dangerous.
Most of the rain should have cleared by tomorrow afternoon, but if the forecasts are correct, there's likely to be a bit of mopping up to do over the weekend.

quote:

Op vrijdag 28 januari 2011 11:51 schreef aloa het volgende:
Het noorden van Nieuw Zeeland mag zich gaan opmaken voor de restanten van cycloon Wilma. Vooral de regen zal het grootste probleem gaan worden.

[..]

quote:

Op vrijdag 28 januari 2011 12:02 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

[..]

Ja in noorden vanmorgen al 100mm, zijn ook meldingen gedaan vanuit Aukland en komt meer aan, had er nog een stukje over geschreven

quote:

Op vrijdag 28 januari 2011 12:02 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

[..]

Ja in Auckland vanmorgen al meer dan 100mm en komt meer aan, had er nog een stukje over geschreven

quote:

Wilma is expected to be reclassified as an Ex-Tropical Cyclone as it passes by northern New Zealand overnight, but will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern parts of the North Island.

Another 80 to 150mm of rain is likely in these areas on top of what has already fallen, with rainfall rates possibly reaching 25 to 40mm per hour for a time.

Rainfalls of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding,
lead to slips and will cause rivers and streams to rise quickly, says MetService.

quote:

Op vrijdag 28 januari 2011 12:17 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Ik heb het net gelezen.
Er wordt nog zo'n 80 - 150 mm verwacht.

[..]

quote:

Op vrijdag 28 januari 2011 12:25 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

[..]

Zodan dat is dan aardig wat, de neerslagkaart hierboven is van de afgelopen 12 uur, mss 200+mm. Moet er niet aan denken, vriendin van mijn broertje gaat vandaag terug naar Auckland, zal een drama zijn daar

quote:

Cyclone Wilma hits Northland

Flooding has trapped two Kaeo families in their homes and another two people in their car as the remnants of Cyclone Wilma cause havoc across Northland.

Police Inspector Shawn Rutene said slips, flooding and fallen trees had caused a number of road closures.

Emergency services were working to rescue two families were trapped in their homes by the rising Kaeo River, he said.

Elsewhere in Northland, police were trying to rescue two people trapped after logs blocked the road at Okaihau and in the Coromandel two people were trapped in a car.

Emergency services throughout Northland were stretched and police were asking people to keep off the roads, Rutene said.

Police expected when high tide hit around 4am some low lying roads would be impassable due to water.

There was also understood to be flooding in Matakana, Mangawhai and along the waterfront at Paihia.

Earlier, MetService warned that Wilma's remnants would bring heavy rain to Northland, Auckland, Waikato, the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne.

Rainfall rates were forecast to reach up to 25 to 40mm per hour for a time.

Strong or gale force winds were also forecast. Winds were forecast to reach severe gale overnight in parts of eastern Northland and Great Barrier Island where gusts of 130 km/h were possible, MetService said.

Northeast swells and very rough seas were forecast for eastern coastal areas from Northland to East Cape.

Rain should clear from most areas by midday tomorrow, though it may continue into the afternoon for Gisborne, MetService said.

quote:

The Bay of Plenty, Northland and the Coromandel have a clean up job on their hands after tropical cyclone Wilma battered the regions over night.
For the second weekend in a row coastal towns and rivers were flooded, closing roads and causing evacuations.
The bucketing rain left roads up north underwater, and homes, as well as water and sewage treatment plants were damaged.
State Highway One heading north from Auckland was closed with traffic having to be diverted.
The New Zealand Transport Authority says people should only drive if absolutely necessary, and if they do they should take extreme care.
The Bay of Plenty also copped it again after being soaked last weekend.
On State Highway 2 between Tauranga and Whakatane there were three slips within two kilometres. Trucks were trapped in between them, drivers couldn't get out but they were lucky just to be able to stop in time.
Campers at the Mt Maunganui campground were woken at 4am by the flooding.
Despite the rain, Tauranga City residents are being urged to conserve water for the next 24 hours.
Both of the city's water processing plants have been shut down because of the heavy rain, and a major water main's broken meaning the city's relying on reservoir storage.
Some campers though have still been able to enjoy themselves.
I thought better transport kayaking down than walking down so I thought I would give it a go, says camper Shaun Middleton.
In Waipuna nine patients were evacuated from a hospice as river water surged from the Kaimai Ranges.
We had volunteers with four wheel drives ferrying people back and forwards across the flood, they became our ferry for the day, says Waipuna Hospice CEO Richard Thurlow.
Further north in the Coromandel it was a similar story.
A slip on the Thames Coast road forced the evacuation of two houses, one of which could still come down with the moving earth.
Some of the boulders that have come through are the size of cars. There's a pine tree on the beach that was on the front yard of one of the houses that was evacuated, so it's reasonably dangerous, says Thames volunteer fire brigade station officer Ken Brokenshire.
Tropical cyclone Wilma has now passed over the North Island, however the MetService is warning that gale force winds will hit exposed places in the Far North, Auckland, East Coast and Taranaki.

quote:

Two cyclones threaten flood-ravaged Qld

Communities along almost 2000 kilometres of Queensland coastline are preparing for the first of two tropical cyclones to hit.

By 7pm (AEST) on Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Anthony was about 830 kilometres northeast of Townsville and was expected to cross the coast late on Sunday or early Monday as a category one or low category two system.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is expecting high rainfall for north and central Queensland and abnormally high tides are expected between Townsville and Bowen.

It comes amid concern a second cyclone, named Yasi, will develop from an intense tropical low currently near Fiji and hit the Queensland coast next Thursday.

The area of concern extends 1700 kilometres from Cooktown down to Hervey Bay, including several major population centres - Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton, Gladstone and Bundaberg.

State disaster management coordinator Ian Stewart urged people living in these areas to prepare.

"The reason we are considering this broader area, is to ensure that the preparations of the community and emergency service personnel are adequate for Tropical Cyclone Anthony ... and a further cyclone Yasi, later in the week," he said.

quote:

Cycloon Anthony nadert Queensland

De cycloon Anthony nadert langzaam richting de kust van Queensland, momenteel gelden er al waarschuwingen voor voor de kustplaatsen van Innisfail tot aan Saint Lawrence. Anthony is al de gehele week Queensland aan het "teisteren", nadat hij zich eerst ontwikkelde voor de noordoost kust in de buurt van Willis Island. Terwijl velen al dachten de cycloon uit beeld was, had Anthony andere plannen en maakte een drastische ommezwaai.



De categorie een cycloon is nog steeds meer dan 900 kilometer ten oost-noordoosten van Townsville en trekt langzaam naar het zuidwesten. Doordat de cycloon eerst nog door de warme wateren van de Coral Sea trekt, kan het zijn dat de cycloon Anthony nog licht gaat intensiveren als hij de kust nadert van Queensland. Tegen het eind van zondag kunnen er zware wind en windstoten zich ontwikkelen aan de kustgebieden en eilanden tussen Innisfail en St Lawrence. De verwachting is dat Anthony in de buurt van Townsville vanaf zondagavond of in de vroege ochtenduren van maandag aan land komt.

Zware regenval wordt er ook verwacht in het noordoosten, voornamelijk in Herbert en Neder-Burdekin districten. Overstromingen zijn niet uitgesloten. Queensland is momenteel nog herstellende van de overstromingen die zich eind vorig jaar en begin dit jaar voordeden.

quote:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony has been downgraded to a tropical low after crossing the Queensland coast but is still causing severe conditions in the state's north.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony crossed the coast near Bowen about 10pm (AEST) as a category two system.

It was packing winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour near its core.

Weather bureau senior forecaster Ben Annells says there has been falls of up to 300 millimetres in the Pioneer River catchment near Mackay.

"That heavier rain is starting to move inland as well and we're starting to see some falls above 50 millimetres through parts of the central interior of Queensland," he said.

Even though the system has since been downgraded to a tropical low, the bureau is still warning of heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts about the central coast, the Whitsundays, and the northern parts of the Central Highlands and coalfields.

quote:

People in north Queensland have been warned to expect wind speeds of up to 260 kilometres per hour when a "big, ugly sister" cyclone makes landfall later this week.
Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ), police and weather officials are meeting across the state's far north today to discuss the possible threat of Tropical Cyclone Yasi.
The category-one system is north-west of Vanuatu but is expected to intensify before crossing the Queensland coast on Wednesday or Thursday.
Authorities fear the massive cyclone could be as intense as Cyclone Larry, which devastated parts of far north Queensland in 2006.
Queensland Police says it is the "big, ugly sister" to Cyclone Anthony, which caused only minor damage as it crossed the state's north coast near Bowen, south of Townsville, overnight.

quote:

Thursday's cyclone to be 'a state event'

North Queensland has endured the destructive winds of Cyclone Anthony, but the weather bureau is warning a bigger cyclone that's likely to affect a much larger area of the state is on the way.

Cyclone Yasi is just north of Vanuatu, about 2000 kilometres east-northeast of Bowen, which suffered only minor damage when Anthony crossed the coast on Sunday night.

Unlike Anthony, which weakened into a low pressure system after crossing land, Yasi is expected to menace Queensland as a strong cyclone even after crossing the coast.
Advertisement: Story continues below

Queensland's Bureau of Meteorology says it's likely to cross the north coast either on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

The bureau's senior forecaster Gordon Banks said Yasi would be big and intense, bringing destructive winds and heavy rain across the state.

He said like January's devastating floods, Yasi will most likely be a state event.

"It's going to affect a much larger area [than Anthony] both with rainfall and wind and because of its size and strength, it's likely to persist as a cyclone even after it crosses land," Mr Banks told ABC Radio.

"I think eventually Yasi will be a whole state event."

quote:

Bureau warns cyclone season far from over

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a very good chance that more cyclones will hit Australia before the season is out.

Communities in north-west Queensland are preparing for category one Cyclone Yasi, which crossed the coast as a category five storm overnight and left a trail of destruction.

The towns of Tully, Mission Beach, Cardwell, Silkwood and Innisfail bore the brunt of the monster storm's 285kph winds but there are no reports of deaths or serious injuries.

The director of the bureau's National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre, Chris Ryan, says Cyclone Yasi has generally behaved as predicted so far.

He says Yasi was more intense than both Cyclone Tracy and Cyclone Larry.

"For the Queensland coast this is an exceptional storm. Its intensity looks like it's the most intense for many decades, perhaps going back before we had satellite imagery to properly measure the intensity of cyclones," he said.

The La Nina system which sparked the cyclone season is still well and truly kicking and Mr Ryan says more cyclones could be on the way.

"The waters all around tropical Australia are still abnormally warm," he said.

"The predictions for the general activity and the monsoon that covers northern Australia at this time of year are that it will actually intensify to some extent over the next couple of weeks.

"So there's certainly every chance that we will see one or more cyclones on either or both sides of the continent over the next couple of months."

He says he would not be surprised if another big cyclone forms.

"The situation hasn't changed to make it any less susceptible to severe cyclones developing again," he said.

As emergency crews and residents begin to assess the damage in coastal regions, Mr Ryan says the bureau is conscious of the risk of false alarms, but at this stage the warnings have matched people's experiences.

"The problem of false alarms and crying wolf is one that we're very conscious of with all of the warnings that we issue," he said.

"In this case we'll have to see how it's perceived. But from everything that I've heard, people who were in the midst of this have all said it was the worst they've ever experienced.

"It was terrifying. And that matches what we were leading them to believe would happen."

Mr Ryan says while the bureau is not yet able to retrieve wind speed measurements, it has estimated speeds of up to 290kph on the coast.

He says it is unusual for a cyclone to remain a category three once it has moved inland for as long as Yasi did.

"Cyclones tend to start to deteriorate very quickly once they lose that energy source from the ocean," he said.

"Yasi, being so big, and to some extent more self-contained, has lasted longer. It was still category two... some 11 or so hours after it crossed the coast. That's pretty unusual. And we're not expecting it to drop below category one until late [Thursday]."

quote:

Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:30 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Ik las vanmorgen dat op de lange termijn Australie weer te maken gaat krijgen met een cycloon

quote:

New Cyclone threat for Australia?

The GFS long range weather maps, used by New Zealand and Australian forecasters but produced in America, are picking that a new cyclone may hit northern Australia early next week says WeatherWatch.co.nz.

The long range models, which have been highly accurate this summer, predict a weak low will cross the northern tip of Queensland on Friday then rapidly intensify into a cyclone by Monday in the Gulf of Carpentaria. While this part of Australia is not heavily populated the tropical storm could then head south, dumping more torrential rain on normally dry inland parts, such as Alice Springs, which is this year receiving huge amounts of rain.

Flooding from ex-cyclone Yasi has already caused problems across inland/western Queensland and the Northern Territories. Of short term interest the Bureau of Meteorology have "high" confidence that another cyclone will form west of Western Australia in the coming days. The good news is that the predicted cyclone is expected to travel well west of the continent and away from land.

However the long range models show plenty of unstable weather conditions along Australia's north western coastline with one model predicting another low developing west of Darwin and heading inland at the end of next week. Again, this part of Australia isn't heavily populated but the lows have the potential to continue to string of flash flooding across inland regions says WeatherWatch.co.nz.

quote:

Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:02 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Bij Madagascar lijkt zich ook wat te ontwikkelen nu, redelijke kans tot ontwikkeling

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:35 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

[..]

quote:

Potential Cyclones:
At 2pm WST a developing tropical low [16U] was located near 19.1S 112.7E, about
350 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and moving towards the west southwest
at 24 kilometres per hour. Refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Advice
[IDW24100] for details.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
Friday :High

quote:

Potential Cyclones:
A developing Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, was located over the western Top End near
13.2S 130.5E, approximately 100km south southwest of Darwin at 12:30 pm CST on
15 February and moving slowly west northwest. The low is expected to move north
or north northwest into the Beagle Gulf and may develop into a tropical cyclone
during Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region on:
Wednesday: High.
Thursday: High.
Friday: High.

quote:

Op dinsdag 15 februari 2011 19:11 schreef aloa het volgende:
Orkaanseizoen in één minuut

Het was vorig jaar een druk orkaanseizoen in de Atlantische regio. Sinds 2005 - het jaar van orkaan Katrina - waren er nooit meer orkanen. Liefst twaalf stormen werden in 2010 tot orkaan uitgeroepen. Dit filmpje toont het hele seizoen in één minuut.

Het orkaanseizoen was vorig jaar ook opmerkelijk, omdat voor het eerst sinds 1998 nog eens drie orkanen tegelijk actief waren. Igor, Julia en Karl kregen die eer. Igor en Julia waren zelfs samen een orkaan van categorie 4 en dat was sinds 1926 niet meer gebeurd. (gb)

2010 Hurricane Season in 1 Minute

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

hln

quote:

Darwin residents warned to prepare but not panic

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is continuing to dump record levels of rain on Darwin as the city's residents deal with cyclonic weather.

More than 400 millimetres of rain fell on the city overnight, forcing the evacuation of 11 houses, and emergency services are preparing to use sandbags to protect more houses which face flooding when the tide peaks tonight.

At this stage the cyclone isn't expected to intensify above category two but the Top End does have a reputation for unpredictable cyclones. Michael Coggan reports from Darwin.

MICHAEL COGGAN: Darwin is familiar with cyclones; rarely does a wet season go by without one or two cyclones reminding Top Enders of the destruction caused by Cyclone Tracy in 1974. But Cyclone Carlos is different, even before it was officially declared a cyclone the weather system cut a swath through the Top End capital.

The combination of more than 400 millimetres of rain and winds, in excess of 100 kilometres per hour, have knocked down trees and powerlines across the city. Main roads have been cut by floodwaters and a 6.6 metre high tide this afternoon is expected to add to the 11 homes inundated overnight.

quote:

Tropical Cyclone Dumps Feet of Rain on Australia

Feet of rain from Tropical Cyclone Carlos have already inundated Australia's Top End with more rain to come before the cyclone finally departs later this week.
Carlos unleashed 22.24 inches of rain on Darwin, the capital city of Australia's Northern Territory, in 56 hours, ending at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday local time (3 a.m. EDT).
The 13.37 inches that fell in 24 hours, ending at 6:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday, set a new all-time daily rainfall record. The old record was held by Jan. 3, 1997 and its 11.43 inches.
The torrential rain has inundated homes and streets in and around Darwin. The Associated Press reports that several people had to be rescued from cars that became stalled in flood waters.
Gusty winds, which peaked at 61 mph in Darwin Tuesday morning EDT, worsened the situation by downing trees and power lines.
One man sustained injuries after being struck by a falling tree.

Darwin and other locations across Australia's Top End will be faced with more flooding problems over the next couple of days as Carlos slowly meanders southwestward and unleashes additional torrential rain.
The heavy rain will finally end Friday into Saturday as Carlos shifts into northern Western Australia.
Interaction with land will prevent Carlos from strengthening into a powerful cyclone. However, more damage to trees and power lines may ensue as tropical storm-force wind gusts continue to accompany the cyclone.

quote:

Carlos, and Now a New Australia Cyclone Threat

Even as Carlos continues to inundate Darwin, a new tropical cyclone, dubbed Dianne, has taken shape off northwestern Australia, from whence it will eventually threaten the nation's west with damaging winds and flooding rain.
Wednesday morning, EST, the center of T.C. Dianne lay about 300 miles northwest of Learmonth, near Cape North West, Western Australia. Highest sustained winds were at least 40 mph. The storm was nearly stationary.

The atmospheric setting will favor intensification, even rapidly so, during the next two days, so Dianne could become the equivalent of a strong hurricane.
Storm movement will become southward, maybe on a path intersecting the west coast of Australia near the end of the week.
Direct high wind impact will be confined to open seas for at least the next two days. However, moisture linked to Dianne will trigger local flooding downpours over far-western Australia, most of which is sparsely settled desert.
Depending on track, Dianne could eventually spark an outbreak of widespread flooding rain and even damaging winds.

quote:

Darwin sets its all-time 24-hour rainfall record

Darwin, Australia suffered its greatest 24-hour rainfall in its history on Wednesday, when a deluge of 13.4 inches (339.4 mm) hit the city when Tropical Cyclone Carlos formed virtually on top of city and remained nearly stationary. Over the past three days, Carlos has dumped a remarkable 25.37" (644.6 mm) of rain on the Darwin (population 125,000), capital of Australia's Northern Territory. Carlos has moved slowly inland today, and continues to dump rain on Darwin, but these rains will gradually subside over the next few days as the storm weakens and moves farther inland. Not surprisingly, the rains have triggered major flooding in the Darwin area. The heavy rains in Darwin are due to the very slow motion of the storm, which has been able to keep a significant portion of its circulation over the warm 30°C (86°F) waters off the coast. These water temperatures are near normal for this time of year. Australia's west coast is also watching Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which is expected to remain offshore as it moves southwards, parallel to the coast.

quote:

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza makes a 2nd landfall in Madagascar

On Monday, Tropical Cyclone Bingiza roared ashore over Northern Madagascar as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for six deaths, has left 15,000 homeless, and has destroyed 8,500 buildings. After re-emerging over the waters of the Mozambique Channel between Africa and Madagascar on Tuesday, Bingiza re-intensified, and made a second landfall along the southwest coast of Madagascar early today as a tropical storm. Bingiza is expected to dissipate over Madagascar tomorrow, but not before dumping very heavy rains capable of causing additional flooding problems on Madagascar's deforested mountain slopes.

Bingiza is just the second tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90E) during the 2010 - 2011 season; this is an unusually low amount of activity for the basin. According to an email I received from Sebastien Langlade of the tropical cyclone forecasting office on La Reunion Island, January 2011 was the first January since accurate records began in 1998 that the Southwest Indian Ocean failed to record a single tropical storm. The only other storm in the basin so far this season has been Tropical Cyclone Abele (29 Nov - 4 Dec 2010), a Category 1 storm that stayed out to sea. Bingiza was the 4th major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclone world-wide this year.

quote:

Carlos hits North Australia
River Daly peaked early in the day, flooding homes in the small town of Nauiyu, south of Darwin.

Local reports state animals in the area were snatched by crocodiles swimming in flood waters.

Authorities predict flood levels will not recede for at least four days. Makeshift shelters have been set up to house the community.

The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that Cyclone Carlos has now intensified into a Category One cyclone.

quote:

Op donderdag 17 maart 2011 08:55 schreef aloa het volgende:
Nummer 18 in de Indische Oceaan.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op donderdag 17 maart 2011 09:36 schreef Jumparound het volgende:

[..]

dan die japan nog raken?
Dan is het feest compleet daar

quote:

Igor and Tomas retired Atlantic Huricane names
The hurricane committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which issues the list of potential names for tropical cyclones to be used every six years for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins, has decided to retire the Atlantic names Igor and Tomas.

Igor was a classic Cape Verde hurricane, reaching Category 4 strength with 155 miles per hour (250 kilometers per hour) winds on September 14, 2010, while located about 600 miles (965 kilometers) east of the northern Leeward Islands. The storm weakened to a Category 1 hurricane when it struck Bermuda on September 19.

Igor grew in size, with the area of tropical-storm-force winds becoming roughly 750 nautical miles (1389 kilometers) wide and made landfall on September 21 near Cape Race in Newfoundland. It was the most damaging hurricane on that island in 75 years and killed three people along its path. Damage in Newfoundland was placed at almost $200 million U.S. dollars.

Tomas, meanwhile, became a hurricane on October 30, shortly after striking Barbados. It strengthened to a Category 2 storm striking St. Vincent and St. Lucia, becoming the latest hurricane on record to strike the Windward Islands.

After weakening to a tropical depression over the central Caribbean Sea, Tomas regained Category 1 strength on November 5 and moved between Jamaica and the southwest peninsula of Haiti, through the Windward Passage. It weakened just below hurricane strength before reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fourteen people are confirmed as dead, or missing, on St. Lucia. Total damage there is estimated to be around $500 million U.S. dollars. Heavy rains associated with Tomas triggered floods and landslides in Haiti, where meteorological services state that the death toll was 35.

If the WMO hurricane committee had not decided to scrap the names, Igor and Tomas in the Atlantic would have appeared again in 2016. Ian and Tobias will now take their place instead.

The only time that there is a change in the list of names is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee, the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.

The lists are re-cycled every six years, i.e., the 2010 list will be used again in 2016.

quote:

An area of thunderstorms about 1,200 miles from Southwest Florida — which has the official name of Invest 91— is highly unlikely to develop into any kind of named storm.

So says Jim Farrell, WINK News chief meteorologist. “Could even be gone by tomorrow,” Farrell said. “I don’t anticipate much happening.”

If history is any guide, the weather system will most certainly die out. Since 1851 there has been only one named storm in April, Tropical Storm Ana in 2003.

The storm is in an area of high wind shear.

“A very hostile upper air environment,” Farrell said.

At higher altitudes, winds are racing west to east, a strong inhibitor to further development.

“This is very typical for this time of the year,” Farrell said.

The storm is about 460 miles northeast of Puerto Rico in the Atlantic Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami gives the storm only a 20 percent chance for further intensification. The NHC reported that ships in the storm’s area reported gale-force winds near the center of the disturbance. That would put wind gusts in the 45-to-50 mile-per-hour range.

quote:

A tropical disturbance (91L) near 24N, 63W, midway between the Virgin Islands and Bermuda, is moving north-northwest at about 8 mph. The system's heavy thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but 91L has an elongated and poorly-organized circulation, thanks to a hefty 80 knots of wind shear. The storm is over waters of 25°C, and these waters will cool to 24°C by Friday as the storm continues to the north-northwest. Before 91L reaches Bermuda, steering currents will reverse and force 91L to the south-southwest on Saturday, into a region of higher wind shear. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will drop to 50 knots over 91L by Friday, then increase again to 70 knots by Sunday. The high shear and relatively cool water temperatures will make it difficult for 91L to organize into a subtropical depression. I give 91L a 10% of becoming a subtropical depression. Climatology argues against 91L becoming the first named storm of the year; there has only been once named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003. The formation of a tropical disturbance at this location this time of year is unusual, but is not necessarily a harbinger of a active season ahead.

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 14:06 schreef Floxxx het volgende:
Hmm, heeft iemand een idee wanneer ze de eerste (echte) orkaan verwachten? kan er niet veel over vinden (ja, ik weet het, officieel begint het orkaan seizoen op 1 juni, maar wanneer verwachten ze de eerste orkaan?)

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 14:06 schreef Floxxx het volgende:
Hmm, heeft iemand een idee wanneer ze de eerste (echte) orkaan verwachten? kan er niet veel over vinden (ja, ik weet het, officieel begint het orkaan seizoen op 1 juni, maar wanneer verwachten ze de eerste orkaan?)

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 16:47 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Er van uit gaande dat je orkaan bedoeld (je schrijft ook (echte) erbij) en dus een Categorie 1 orkaan en geen tropische storm en/of depressies die ook namen krijgen dan is het volgens mij in de laatste dertig jaar niet voorgekomen dat er een Categorie 1 orkaan ontstond voor één juni. Misschien wel langer.

Ik zou op inzetten op de laatste week van juni voor de eerste Cat.1 Orkaan er is.

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 19:20 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Laatste jaren is florida er redelijk ongeschonden vanaf gekomen denk ik?
wat dat betreft wordt het wel weer eens tijd

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 19:35 schreef Floxxx het volgende:

[..]

Laatste zware orkaanseizoen voor Florida was in 2005 geloof ik, ik hoop dat het nog even uitblijft, maar ze verwachten een zwaar seizoen dit jaar, dus ben bang dat dat er niet in zit...

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 19:38 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Dachten ze vorig jaar ook... toen werd het nada, noppes enzo

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 18:33 schreef Floxxx het volgende:

[..]

Ik doelde inderdaad op minimaal Cat 1, tropische stormen zijn niet zo interessant
Ik woon namelijk in Florida en probeer er meestal wel een oogje op te houden, maar heb nooit echt nagekeken wanneer het nou echt begint :p

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 14:49 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Dat is moeilijk te zeggen. Het seizoen kan vroeg beginnen, maar kan ook net als vorig jaar pas laat op gang komen.
Aan de zeewatertemperatuur zal het niet liggen...

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 19:57 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Een tropische storm kan voor flink wat ellende zorgen.
Goed voorbeeld zijn de overstromingen in Australie begin dit jaar. Die werden veroorzaakt door een Tropische Storm...

Overstromingen Australie: Ergste in honderd jaar

quote:

Op donderdag 5 mei 2011 15:28 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Yasi, een monsterorkaan, kwam er toch ook nog overheen?

quote:

Op donderdag 5 mei 2011 14:38 schreef thijsdetweede het volgende:

[..]

Zo dan. Da's een nog grotere resevoir aan 30+ water dan in 2010. En uiteindelijk is dat toch de bak met energie die de orkanen moeten ledigen...
Stiekem hoop ik op nog een Thomas die over Barbados heen scheert, en dat de instrumenten die we daar hebben staan het dan wel uithouden

quote:

Op donderdag 5 mei 2011 18:53 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

En het is nog maar mei. Water is volgens mij vroeg op temperatuur.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Hurricane Season Starts Sunday in Eastern Pacific

"Fifteen named storms would more than double the total from last year"


Sunday marks the official start of the 2011 hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, a season which is expected to exceed the amount of named tropical systems from last year by twofold.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are predicting an average number of tropical systems to develop in the Eastern Pacific this year.
The basin averages 15 tropical storms each season. Out of those, nine become hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane status.
Fifteen named storms would more than double the total from last year. Only seven named storms formed in the Eastern Pacific in 2010, with three reaching hurricane status.
"Last year was... about as quiet as it can get," stated AccuWeather.com Western Expert Meteorologist Ken Clark.
"A strengthening La Niña can be partially attributed to the lack of tropical storms [last year]," reported AccuWeather.com Staff Writer Gina Cherundolo in her recap of the 2010 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
A weakening La Niña, on the other hand, will bring the basin's hurricane season back to normal this year.
"The water [in the Eastern Pacific] will steadily warm, which will lead to lower pressure," stated AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck. Lower pressure will then open the door for the development of tropical systems.
"Since the pressure will remain slightly above average early in the season, we are not expecting a quick start," Smerbeck added.
There are clusters of thunderstorms currently streaming across the Eastern Pacific, but none show signs of future development.
The first tropical storm to develop in the Eastern Pacific this year will acquire the name "Adrian."
Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific will run until November 30, which coincides with the end of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
The 2011 Atlantic Basin hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1. The earlier start time in the Eastern Pacific reflects how this basin typically turns active faster than the Atlantic.
On average, June 9 is when the first tropical storm is named in the Eastern Pacific. In the Atlantic, that date is July 10.
Hurricanes typically develop much quicker in the Eastern Pacific than the Atlantic. The average first date for a hurricane to form in the Eastern Pacific is June 24, but not until August 14 in the Atlantic.
Despite the Eastern Pacific being rather active, the majority of tropical storms and hurricanes never threaten land. A typical Eastern Pacific tropical system will head westward into open and progressively cooler ocean waters, dissipating in the process.
Occasionally, tropical storms and hurricanes will target Mexico and parts of Central America. Though less frequently, some tropical systems have threatened Hawaii. Hurricane Felicia approached Hawaii in 2009, but weakened below tropical depression status prior to reaching the islands.
Since records began, the cool water that lies offshore of California has protected the state from direct hits by tropical storms and hurricanes in every year but one. In September 1939, an unnamed tropical storm pressed onshore at Long Beach, California with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
Two other storms have moved into Arizona at tropical storm strength. The first was once-Hurricane Joanne in October 1972, followed by once-Hurricane Kathleen in September 1976.
No systems have reached the Southwest at hurricane strength.

quote:

Tropische storm Aere eist 31 levens op Filipijnen

De tropische storm Aere heeft op de Filipijnen al 31 mensen het leven gekost, zo hebben de autoriteiten laten weten.

De storm geselde de Filipijnen afgelopen zondag en ging gepaard met stortregens. Op het grote eiland Luzon moesten bijna 70.000 mensen hun huizen verlaten.

De Filipijnen krijgen elk jaar een twintigtal taifoens te verwerken. Sommige richten veel schade aan en zorgen ook voor doden.

hln

quote:

Op maandag 16 mei 2011 00:51 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:
GREG en IRWIN klinken echt als cat.5 orkanen.

quote:

First tropical wave of the year over the Atlantic
The first tropical wave of 2011 is now over the tropical Atlantic near 6°N 46°W, according to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion. The wave will bring heavy rain to the northeast coast of South America over the next two days, but is too far south to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. The Atlantic hurricane season is just two weeks away, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began yesterday. So far, the models are not predicting any tropical storm development in the East Pacific or Atlantic over the next six days.

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Tropical Storm Aere formed in early May 2011, just east of the Philippines. Channel News Asia and Unisys Weather reported that the storm made landfall on May 8. By May 13, the Philippine government reported that the storm’s death toll in that nation stood at 31. Besides strong winds, the storm brought torrential rains that caused flash floods and landslides.

A color-coded image was created using data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite by Jesse Allen at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. The image shows estimated rainfall amounts from May 5 to 12, 2011. In the image, the lowest rainfall amounts (less than 75 millimeters, or 3 inches) appear in pale green, and the heaviest amounts (more than 600 millimeters, or 24 inches) appear in dark blue. The heaviest rainfall forms a kind of bull’s eye over the easternmost islands, southeast of Manila. Rainfall amounts fall farther away from this area, but rain still affects a broad swath across the central Philippines.

Over the course of its existence, Tropical Storm Aere traveled in a large arc. The storm passed over the northern Philippines, and passed east of Taiwan before curving back toward the northeast. Aere dissipated south of Japan.

Tropical storms and damaging rains frequently affect the Philippines, Typhoon Megi, Tropical Storm Conson, and Tropical Storm Ketsana being just a few of the storms to cause widespread damage. Torrential rains can also affect the islands even without the influence of named storms, such as heavy rains in January 2011.

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First typhoon of 2011 coming?
In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Four has formed, and appears poised to become the first typhoon of 2011 by early next week. The storm is expected to head west-northwest or northwest towards the Philippines. While the GFS model predicts Tropical Storm Four will miss the Philippines and recurve northwards towards Japan late next week, it is too early to be confident of this forecast.

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Op zaterdag 21 mei 2011 23:19 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Lijkt er op dat ie toch dichter bij de kust komt dan eerst?

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Op zondag 22 mei 2011 12:16 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
inmiddels hernoemd naar Songda
Draait hij nu nog verder weg of krijgt Taiwan de volle laag?

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Op zondag 22 mei 2011 22:07 schreef Jumparound het volgende:
dat kunnen ze nog wel hebben daar, een orkaantje...

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an early start to hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.

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Op woensdag 1 juni 2011 10:04 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
EN HET SEIZOEN IS OFFICIEEL GEOPEND

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THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

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Op zaterdag 4 juni 2011 16:34 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Afwachten inderdaad... Ze komen niet vaak voor daar. Misschien dat ze wat piratenbootjes laten omslaan

Zat me net af te vragen waarom ze het altijd invest 93 en 94 noemen daar in de Atlantic... ik heb het ooit geweten maar weet het niet meer, Ik word oud

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Op zaterdag 4 juni 2011 16:37 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Volgens mij als ze eenmaal weg zijn en er duiken nieuwe op noemen ze ze ook weer invest 93 of 94 ?

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Tropics Activating in Both Caribbean, East Pacific

"The formation of the first named storm in both...basins in the same week would be rather unusual."

The first depression or named storm of this year may not just come to life in the Caribbean this week, but also the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is busy as the workweek begins, closely monitoring two areas of low pressure for tropical development.
One low is located in the central Caribbean, roughly 175 miles south of Grand Cayman. The other is spinning about 450 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, in the eastern Pacific.
Both lows have become better organized over the past 36 hours as each churns over warm water.
Due to being in an environment that is more conducive to development, the low in the eastern Pacific will likely win the race and become a tropical depression before the low in the Caribbean.

The eastern Pacific low could strengthen into a depression within the next 24 hours, then should further intensify into Tropical Storm Adrian. Latest computer models even show the low reaching hurricane strength.
The projected path of the strengthening low keeps it over the open waters of the eastern Pacific. However, a track toward the western tip of central Mexico cannot be ruled out.
As wind shear (strong winds high in the atmosphere) lessens, the low in the Caribbean may eventually follow suit and strengthen into a tropical depression this week.
If the low can then continue to strengthen, it would acquire the name "Arlene."
At this point, a range of solutions exists as to where the low will track this week. Some signs point toward the low heading into the south-central Gulf of Mexico, while a track directed at either eastern Cuba or Hispaniola is possible.
Regardless of what the future holds for the low, flooding rain and mudslides poses an immediate danger to Jamaica, southeastern Cuba and Hispaniola.
The formation of the first named storm in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins in the same week would be rather unusual.
On average, June 9 is when the first tropical storm is named in the Eastern Pacific. In the Atlantic, that date is July 10.

bron: Accuweather

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Op maandag 6 juni 2011 11:45 schreef aloa het volgende:
In de Atlantische Oceaan is de invest opgehoogd naar 40%. Er is een kans dat dit Arlene gaat worden.
[..]

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Evacuaties door noodweer in Dominicaanse Republiek

AMSTERDAM - Meer dan vierduizend mensen zijn in de Dominicaanse Republiek geëvacueerd vanwege noodweer ten zuiden van Jamaica. Hierdoor wordt de Dominicaanse Republiek geteisterd door zware regenbuien.

Twaalf huizen zijn door overstromingen vernield. Nog eens 540 woningen staan blank. Ook in Haïti, Jamaica en Puerto Rico leidde het noodweer tot overstromingen.
De afgelopen dagen zijn er in de Dominicaanse Republiek één en in Haïti twee doden gevallen.

nu.nl

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Op dinsdag 7 juni 2011 13:40 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
verkeerde topic?

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Op dinsdag 7 juni 2011 14:43 schreef Jumparound het volgende:

[..]

dan verplaats je hem toch?

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23 doden in Haiti
Zware regenval in Haïti heeft gisteren geleid tot overstromingen en aardverschuivingen. Daardoor zijn zeker 23 mensen om het leven gekomen. Dat hebben de autoriteiten in het Caraïbische land laten weten.

De doden vielen onder meer in het tentenkamp bij het ingestorte presidentiële paleis in de hoofdstad Port-au-Prince. Daar wonen nog altijd veel mensen die bij de zware aardbeving van januari vorig jaar dakloos zijn geraakt. Ook in de luxewijk Petionville zijn veel mensen omgekomen.

Het noodweer wordt veroorzaakt door een lagedrukgebied boven de Caraïbische Zee. Dat kan ook overstromingen en aardverschuivingen veroorzaken in de Dominicaanse Republiek, Jamaica en Cuba, aldus het Amerikaanse orkaancentrum NHC. (anp/adv)
08/06/11 07u27

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Adrian Becomes Category 3 Hurricane



Satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken early this morning shows signs of further strengthening.

Tropical Storm Adrian, the first hurricane of 2011, is now a Category 3 storm in the eastern Pacific.
Adrian was upgraded to a hurricane Wednesday evening and was upgraded to Category 3 status at 8 a.m. PDT.
After organizing into the first tropical depression of the 2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season on Tuesday morning, rapid strengthening continued throughout the day. The depression was named

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has the latest stats on Hurricane Adrian, which is sitting southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Satellite images continue to show further strengthening and organization.
"The rapid strengthening occurred due to very little wind shear in the area. This is allowed showers and thunderstorms to blow up and wrap around the tropical storm's center," said AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck.
According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The hurricane is expected to continue on a northwest track through the eastern Pacific over the next few days, keeping the system away from Mexico."
"s Adrian continues on this course, it will eventual wander over much cooler waters, which will cause the storm to weaken," Kottlowski added.

Battering surf will affect the coastline. There could be some beach erosion and minor coastal flooding with the storm passing a couple hundred miles away from the coast.
Depending on how closely Adrian hugs the Mexico Coast as it shifts northwest, some outer bands of rain and thunderstorms as well as gusty winds could also lash westernmost Mexico in the coming days.
There are a couple of computer models that are still indicating a track farther to the north, which would take the system toward Mexico. These models are showing the storm approaching Mexico somewhere between Jalisco and Michoacan or northern Guerro.
The northern track would mean more impact as far as heavy rain, damaging winds, rough surf and storm surge goes. There would even be the threat of violent thunderstorms and tornadoes to the north and east of the storm's center at landfall if this scenario were to play out.
People who live along the west coast of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of the storm. Keep checking back for the latest updates on AccuWeather.com.

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Tropical Depression Douses Philippines

Torrential rain triggered flooding in parts of the Philippines as a tropical depression spun up nearby.
According to the Straits Times of Singapore, at least three people have been killed by floods following days of heavy rain as of Thursday. Nearly 200,000 people have been adversely affected, as schools have shut and traffic was disrupted.
Two teenagers died in North Cotabato province, the Times said. North Cotabato is on the southern island of Mindanao.
In Manila, there were school closings and flight cancelations Thursday.
Weather data accessed by AccuWeather.com show that rainfall in and about Manila was 4 to at least 8 inches within 24 to 36 hours as of Thursday. June, which marks the start of the rainy season in Manila, has about 10 inches of rain through the month, on average, in the Philippine capital city.
Meanwhile, the tropical depression, designated TD 05W (Five) by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, was drifting northwestward off western Luzon Island Thursday. TD Five could become a tropical storm prior to making landfall in southeastern China before the end of the week.


Joint Typhoon Warning Center Image shows TD Five near Luzon Island, Philippines, June 9, 2011.

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Op dinsdag 7 juni 2011 13:40 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
verkeerde topic?

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Op dinsdag 7 juni 2011 14:43 schreef Jumparound het volgende:

[..]

dan verplaats je hem toch?

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Hurricane Adrian is a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 knots off the west coast of Mexico. Conditions are favorable for further strengthening in the next 24 hours before the storm begins to be affected by stable air and cooler waters. Adrian is moving west northwest and should pose no problems for land. This image was taken by GOES East on June 9, 2011 at 1345Z.

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Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

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Monsoon Rain to Continue Across India

Vehicles and pedestrians find their way through a waterlogged street as it rains in Mumbai, India, Saturday, June 11, 2011. Heavy rains continued to lash the city for the third consecutive day Saturday, causing floods in several parts of the city. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)
Monsoon moisture will continue to produce localized heavy rain across western India over the next few days.
Aided by the short-lived Tropical Cyclone 01A, localized rain amounts of 3-5 inches (75-125 mm) occurred across northwestern India since Friday.
In the heavily populated city of Mumbai, 1.18 inches (29.9 mm) of rain fell between 8:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. on Saturday (local time), while up to 2.63 inches (66.7 mm) of rain fell in the western suburbs.
The heavy rain resulted in standing water on roadways and on some rail lines. Officials also reported numerous down trees across the area.
While the cyclone has dissipated, the remnant swirl will continue to draw very moist, tropical air inland over western India over the next few days.
As is typical for June, daily rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will occur across western India, while local amounts may near 8 inches (200 mm) in a few locations in the more intense cloud bursts.

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Op woensdag 15 juni 2011 23:47 schreef PiRANiA het volgende:
Dit topic is verreekst . Bij een nieuw topic worden volgers meegenomen.

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Op woensdag 15 juni 2011 23:47 schreef PiRANiA het volgende:
Dit topic is verreekst . Bij een nieuw topic worden volgers meegenomen.

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Watching the Eastern Pacific for Tropical Development

"Flash flooding will be possible with these tropical downpours."


The current Infrared satellite imagery courtesy the National Hurricane Center shows a disorganized area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepac.

The tropical Eastern Pacific is beginning to heat up as an area of low pressure off the coast is becoming better organized.
The area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepac at the present time.
The latest satellite imagery shows that showers and thunderstorms associated with the system remain disorganized.
However, environmental conditions are currently somewhat favorable for development.
Water temperatures off the southern coast of Mexico are close to 30 degrees celsius or 86 degrees fahrenheit, which is plenty warm for sustaining a tropical system.
The amount of wind shear or change in the winds as you go up in the atmosphere isn't all that strong in the vicinity of the area of low pressure either.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are forecasting the feature to continue to track toward the northwest the next couple of days, generally paralleling the western coast of Mexico.



Regardless of development, locally drenching showers and thunderstorms will affect coastal locations into early next week. Flash flooding will be possible with these tropical downpours. Residents are urged to turn around and not drive through flooded waters as you never know how deep the water is.
Cities such as Acapulco, Zihuatanejo, and eventually Manzanillo can expect locally flooding downpours as showers and thunderstorms move onshore.
Should the feature strengthen into an organized tropical system, strong wind gusts will become possible, especially with the center of the system being relatively close to the coast.
Residents of the western coast of Mexico should pay attention to this feature and stay tuned to local media outlets for potential tropical watches or warnings should the system develop further.

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Op dinsdag 21 juni 2011 21:49 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Die volgt ook zowaar de hele strook bizar om dat te zien.

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Beatriz kills 3 in Acapulco
The second Pacific hurricane of 2011 brought high winds and heavy rains to beach resorts from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, forcing thousands of tourists to hole up in their hotels as it uprooted trees and flooded roads.

In Acapulco, the main port on Mexico's Pacific coast and a popular tourist spot, three members of the same family drowned after falling into a septic tank while trying to rescue two women, public safety officials said.

Another person was reported missing and dozens of homes were seriously damaged. "Undoubtedly, Acapulco was the hardest hit," said Guerrero state public safety spokesman Ramon Almonte.

Top winds of 80 miles per hour died down by Tuesday afternoon to 60 miles per hour and Beatriz was forecast to track into the Pacific and fizzle out.

"There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect," the US National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.

The western state of Jalisco was also hit hard by the storm, with heavy rain recorded in Tomatlan, Cabo Corrientes, La Huerta and Puerto Vallarta, another of Mexico's biggest tourist destinations.

Red flags dotted the beaches to keep swimmers out of the high seas and local authorities urged caution when driving through mountainous interior roads due to the risk of landslides.

The 2011 storm season is expected to be worse than usual, US experts have said. Adrian, the first Pacific hurricane of the 2011 season, was downgraded to a tropical storm over a week ago and never made landfall.