quote:Tomas zet koers richting Haiti
Tropische storm Tomas zet koers richting Haïti en neemt in kracht toe. Naar verwachting trekt Tomas morgen net langs het land. Er wordt gevreesd voor windstoten tot 120 kilometer per uur en zware regenbuien.
De verwachting is dat er een halve meter regen valt en dat zou voor grote overstromingen kunnen zorgen. In Haïti zitten nog steeds meer dan 1 miljoen mensen in vluchtelingenkampen na de zware aardbeving van afgelopen januari.
De Haïtiaanse regering wil al die mensen evacueren en tijdens de storm in gebouwen onderbrengen. Maar veel Haïtianen weigeren. Ze willen de bezittingen die ze hebben niet verlaten omdat ze bang zijn nog eens alles kwijt te raken.
Cholera
En ook de cholera-epidemie in het land is nog niet onder controle. Het aantal nieuwe gevallen is de laatste dagen weer toegenomen. Deze week zijn 105 mensen overleden.
Hulporganisaties vrezen dat Tomas de cholera-epidemie alleen maar zal verergeren.
Tomas zal niet alleen Haïti treffen, ook in de Dominicaanse Republiek, Jamaica en de Bahama's wordt zwaar weer verwacht.
Lijkt weer wat te ontstaan op dinsdag. Even afwachten wat dat gaat worden.quote:Op donderdag 4 november 2010 15:23 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Staat nog niks op de kaart toch aloa? Ik ben benieuwd, Thomas wordt ook weer een lachertje, dus hoop nog steeds op een cat. 4 of 5 in de Golf.
quote:Jal to intensify further, cross TN, AP coast on Sunday night
The severe cyclonic storm Jal, stationary about 550 kms from Chennai, would further intensify and cross the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast tomorrow night, the regional weather office said here today.
JAL remained stationary and lay centered over southwest Bay of Bengal at about 450 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 550 km east-southeast of Chennai and 700 km southeast of Nellore, they said.
The cyclone would intensify further, move in a west-northwestwards direction and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by Sunday night, they said.
Rain or thundershowers would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rain fall over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh in the next 24 hours, beginning 8.30 AM today.
South coastal Tamil Nadu would witness widespread rain over the next 48 hours, the weather office said.
Wind speed reaching between 60-80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from today and it might increase to 120-130 kmph to 140 kmph at the time of landfall, it said.
Sea conditions would be very rough to high. Storm surge may inundate low lying areas of Nellore and Prakasam districts of Andhra Pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai and Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall, it said.
'The system is under constant surveillance and concerned state governments are being informed,' the weather office said.
quote:Last Monday, AccuWeather.com first warned that southeastern India would become the target of another tropical cyclone this week. Signs continue to point toward this scenario unfolding.
The system that bears watching by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is churning over the Bay of Bengal. The system will likely continue to track westward, reaching the southeastern coast of India during the first half of this week.
Prior to moving into India, the system should gain at least tropical depression or storm strength. This system is becoming better organized; however, moderate wind shear (strong winds high in the atmosphere) to the northwest of the system continues to prevent tropical development.
The waters of the Bay of Bengal are more than sufficiently warm enough to support tropical development. Wind shear is expected to decrease slightly over the next 24-48 hours and this will also prove conducive for tropical formation.
Since the exact track of this system is not set in stone, all residents along the southeastern coast of India should remain on alert.
The threat zone includes the same area struck by Tropical Cyclone Jal only a week ago.
At the very least, the system this week will endanger southeastern India with heavy rainfall. As the system's strength increases, so will the threat of damaging winds.
Lees hier meer over deze voorspellingquote:CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season
A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:
1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)
2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.
2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.
I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.
Die voorspelling is mooi op tijd.quote:Op donderdag 9 december 2010 14:37 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Interessant... voor 2010 werd een boven gemiddeld orkaanseizoen voorspeld... toch leek dat eigenlijk niet zo, want de US werd zo goed als niet getroffen, maar toch waren er aardig wat stormen.
Voor 2011 voorspellen ze nu een zeer agressief orkaanseizoen
[..]
Lees hier meer over deze voorspelling
quote:Cyclone Threat to Northwest Australia
Broad tropical low pressure disturbing the Indian Ocean off northwestern Australia will pose a tropical cyclone threat to the region during the next few days.
As of Wednesday, eastern time, the center of tropical low pressure lay about 400 miles, or less than 700 km, off North West Cape, Australia.
Warm surface waters will allow this weather system to organize further as it drifts southeastward. It could hold tropical cyclone status as it bears down on the coast late in the week.
A tropical weather system off northwestern Australia on Dec. 15, 2010. (credit: Navy Research Lab Monterey)
The area most likely to have a landfall by this weather system is rather sparsely settled. Nonetheless, it will be subject to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as damaging winds.
Seas off northwestern Australia yield oil and natural gas, so operators of offshore petroleum structures will be eyeing this weather system.
This evolving weather system may have already played a part in a tragic mishap that happened far to the northwest on Wednesday.
Rough seas whipped up by northwesterly winds spiraling toward this low pressure may have been instrumental in the deadly crash of a boat against rocky shore of Christmas Island.
quote:Vluchtelingenboot slaat stuk op Australisch eiland
Op een Australisch eiland zijn zeker 27 asielzoekers om het leven gekomen, nadat hun schip op de rotsen was stukgeslagen. De vluchtelingen waren van Indonesië op weg naar Christmas Island. Door het slechte weer kon de houten boot niet aanleggen en sloeg hij op de rotsen kapot. Er is weinig meer van de boot over.
Er waren waarschijnlijk zo'n 70 mensen aan boord, die allemaal in zee terechtkwamen. Er konden 42 mensen uit zee worden gehaald. Enkele asielzoekers worden nog vermist.
Ooggetuigen
Vlak na het ongeluk probeerden bewoners van Christmas Island mensen te redden door touwen en reddingsvesten over de kliffen te gooien.
Volgens ooggetuige Simon Prince, die vlak bij de plaats van het ongeluk woont, werd hij wakker van hulpgeroep, waarna hij naar de kliffen rende om te zien wat er aan de hand was.
"Er lagen lichamen in het water, kinderen, allemaal rommel. Dat beeld zal me nog wel een tijd bijblijven."
Irakezen
De asielzoekers zijn waarschijnlijk Irakezen. Vluchtelingen die naar Australië willen, kiezen vaak voor de oversteek naar Christmas Island, omdat die relatief kort is.
nos
quote:Weakening Tasha offers brief respite
Authorities are urging motorists to avoid road travel as much as possible in northern Queensland due to flooding from ex tropical cyclone Tasha, despite an easing of the conditions in the state.
The category one system crossed the coast just south of Cairns about 5.30am this morning, but has now weakened into a monsoonal low.
Flash flooding is still predicted in some areas, but Wayne Coutts from Queensland's Emergency Management says conditions are easing.
"There's been flash flooding occurring for the last few hours and probably I'm hoping right at the moment we're on the cusp of the downfall of the rain. So the SES groups are reporting that it's not as heavy," he said.
But Emergency Management Queensland says flooding is the biggest concern for authorities over the next few days with between 100 and 200 mm of rain expected to cause more flooding.
Queensland's Emergency Services Minister, Neil Roberts, says about 2,000 people are affected by power blackouts and the SES is responding to more than 140 calls for help.
"Thankfully there have been no reports of injury, but we have had reports of house damage to at least one home in the mission beach area however," he said.
"There is still heavy rain in the area, lots of roads cut and we expect the rain to continue particularly in the far north over the next few days, and increasing at the system moves into the south-west in the southern parts of Queensland in the next few days as well."
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