If El Niño develops during the summer, one of the biggest impacts could be on the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks in September.
"El Niño tends to increase the mid- to upper-level wind shear (stronger winds with height and change in direction) on a more frequent basis across portions of the Atlantic Basin," Pastelok said. "This can lead to less storm development: a roadblock to a hyperactive hurricane season this year."
Higher wind shear makes it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. As a result, El Niño years often feature fewer tropical storms and hurricanes compared to La Niña seasons. El Niño can also shift where storms are more likely to form, with activity sometimes favored farther out in the Atlantic rather than closer to the U.S. coastline.
Meanwhile, El Niño often has the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where hurricane activity typically increases.
“The strength of El Niño late in the season could have a dramatic impact on late October/November activity,” DaSilva said. “The stronger the El Niño gets, the greater the chance for a quieter end to the season.”
Beyond hurricanes, El Niño can significantly influence U.S. rainfall patterns. Parts of the West that have experienced prolonged dry conditions could get increased precipitation if the pattern strengthens later this year.
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