Hurricane Season 2011

quote:

Bureau warns cyclone season far from over

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a very good chance that more cyclones will hit Australia before the season is out.

Communities in north-west Queensland are preparing for category one Cyclone Yasi, which crossed the coast as a category five storm overnight and left a trail of destruction.

The towns of Tully, Mission Beach, Cardwell, Silkwood and Innisfail bore the brunt of the monster storm's 285kph winds but there are no reports of deaths or serious injuries.

The director of the bureau's National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre, Chris Ryan, says Cyclone Yasi has generally behaved as predicted so far.

He says Yasi was more intense than both Cyclone Tracy and Cyclone Larry.

"For the Queensland coast this is an exceptional storm. Its intensity looks like it's the most intense for many decades, perhaps going back before we had satellite imagery to properly measure the intensity of cyclones," he said.

The La Nina system which sparked the cyclone season is still well and truly kicking and Mr Ryan says more cyclones could be on the way.

"The waters all around tropical Australia are still abnormally warm," he said.

"The predictions for the general activity and the monsoon that covers northern Australia at this time of year are that it will actually intensify to some extent over the next couple of weeks.

"So there's certainly every chance that we will see one or more cyclones on either or both sides of the continent over the next couple of months."

He says he would not be surprised if another big cyclone forms.

"The situation hasn't changed to make it any less susceptible to severe cyclones developing again," he said.

As emergency crews and residents begin to assess the damage in coastal regions, Mr Ryan says the bureau is conscious of the risk of false alarms, but at this stage the warnings have matched people's experiences.

"The problem of false alarms and crying wolf is one that we're very conscious of with all of the warnings that we issue," he said.

"In this case we'll have to see how it's perceived. But from everything that I've heard, people who were in the midst of this have all said it was the worst they've ever experienced.

"It was terrifying. And that matches what we were leading them to believe would happen."

Mr Ryan says while the bureau is not yet able to retrieve wind speed measurements, it has estimated speeds of up to 290kph on the coast.

He says it is unusual for a cyclone to remain a category three once it has moved inland for as long as Yasi did.

"Cyclones tend to start to deteriorate very quickly once they lose that energy source from the ocean," he said.

"Yasi, being so big, and to some extent more self-contained, has lasted longer. It was still category two... some 11 or so hours after it crossed the coast. That's pretty unusual. And we're not expecting it to drop below category one until late [Thursday]."

Bij Sri Lanka is een invest. Daar krijgen ze ook weer veel neerslag.

14 doden door overstromingen op Sri Lanka.

Een miljoen mensen op de vlucht voor het water in Sri Lanka

Misschien een nieuw systeem bij de Tonga eilanden.

quote:

Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:02 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Bij Madagascar lijkt zich ook wat te ontwikkelen nu, redelijke kans tot ontwikkeling

[ afbeelding ]

Kaartje voor 14 februari laat een systeem bij Madagascar zien

quote:

Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:35 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

[..]

Golf van Carpentaria. 14 februari lijkt er ook wat te ontstaan.

Gebied bij Madagascar ontwikkeld zich goed

Systeem bij Madagascar. Volgens de verwachting gaat het een categorie 2 worden.
Naam van deze orkaan is BINGIZA



[ Bericht 4% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 09-02-2011 22:36:57 ]

Volgens onderstaande plaatje gaat het wel een categorie 2 worden. Systeem ligt haast stil. Het verplaatst zich met minder dan 2 km/uur.

Australie krijgt ook weer te maken met een cycloon. Deze ontstaat boven de golf van Carpentaria en gaat landfall maken in Queensland.

kaartje van 15 februari

Bingiza gaat landfall maken als een categorie 3.
Nu een windveld van 185 km met windstoten tot 231 km/uur.

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza roared ashore over Northern Madagascar early today as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Recent microwave imagery from NASA's TRMM satellite shows that Bingza had a large region of heavy rains of 0.4 - 0.7 inches per hour in the eyewall and inner spiral bands at landfall. Rainfall amounts of up to 8 inches are being predicted along Bingza's path over northern Madagascar for the coming 24 hours by NOAA's automated tropical cyclone rainfall prediction system. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing dangerous flooding in Madagascar, and the storm's winds and storm surge likely caused serious damage in the moderately populated area where the storm came ashore. Bingiza will weaken today as it traverses the island, but is expected to re-intensify once it emerges over the Mozambique Channel between Africa and Madagascar on Tuesday, where sea surface temperatures are about 0.4°C above average. As the storm skirts the western coast of Madagascar Tuesday and Wednesday, the island will receive additional very heavy rains on its mountainous slopes. Madagascar suffers from extensive deforestation, and a storm like Bingiza is capable of causing very dangerous floods.



Bingiza is just the second tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90E) during the 2010 - 2011 season; this is an unusually low amount of activity for the basin. The only other storm so far this season has been Tropical Cyclone Abele (29 Nov - 4 Dec 2010), a Category 1 storm that stayed out to sea. Bingiza is the 4th major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclone world-wide this year.

Wunderground

[ Bericht 2% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 14-02-2011 19:41:04 ]

2 systemen bij Australie. Hoge kans dat deze een cycloon gaan worden.

quote:

Potential Cyclones:
At 2pm WST a developing tropical low [16U] was located near 19.1S 112.7E, about
350 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and moving towards the west southwest
at 24 kilometres per hour. Refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Advice
[IDW24100] for details.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
Friday :High

quote:

Potential Cyclones:
A developing Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, was located over the western Top End near
13.2S 130.5E, approximately 100km south southwest of Darwin at 12:30 pm CST on
15 February and moving slowly west northwest. The low is expected to move north
or north northwest into the Beagle Gulf and may develop into a tropical cyclone
during Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region on:
Wednesday: High.
Thursday: High.
Friday: High.

Radar laat al veel neerslag zien bij Darwin

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR633.loop.shtml#skip

Orkaanseizoen in één minuut

Het was vorig jaar een druk orkaanseizoen in de Atlantische regio. Sinds 2005 - het jaar van orkaan Katrina - waren er nooit meer orkanen. Liefst twaalf stormen werden in 2010 tot orkaan uitgeroepen. Dit filmpje toont het hele seizoen in één minuut.

Het orkaanseizoen was vorig jaar ook opmerkelijk, omdat voor het eerst sinds 1998 nog eens drie orkanen tegelijk actief waren. Igor, Julia en Karl kregen die eer. Igor en Julia waren zelfs samen een orkaan van categorie 4 en dat was sinds 1926 niet meer gebeurd. (gb)



hln

[ Bericht 15% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 15-02-2011 19:14:11 ]

2 sytemen bij Australie
Deze krijgen de namen Carlos en Dianne.

Nieuwe cycloon raast over Noord-Australië

(Novum/AP) - De cycloon Carlos heeft in de Noord-Australische stad Darwin voor hevige regenval en windstoten met snelheden tot 130 kilometer per uur gezorgd. Bomen en elektriciteitspalen gingen tegen de vlakte.

Verscheidene mensen moesten uit hun auto gered worden en één man raakte gewond toen hij door een vallende boom werd geraakt. Scholen en overheidsgebouwen sloten hun deuren, maar evacuaties waren niet nodig, aldus de autoriteiten.

Het oog van de storm liep op drie kilometer langs de stad, maar bleef wel boven zee. Volgens de nationale meteorologische dienst kan de cycloon donderdag terugkeren naar Darwin.

Twee weken geleden verwoestte de veel krachtigere cycloon Yasi meerdere steden in de noordoostelijke staat Queensland.

Nieuws.nl

Cycloon Carlos raast door Australische stad Darwin

De Australische stad Darwin, in het noorden van het land, is vandaag getroffen door de cycloon Carlos. Rukwinden van 110 kilometer per uur en hevige regen teisterden de stad.

Verschillende scholen en de luchthaven werden gesloten terwijl de stad met 120.000 inwoners getroffen werd door overstromingen en stroomonderbrekingen, zo melden lokale media. Volgens tv-zender ABC liepen de straten onder water en werden bomen uit de grond gerukt. Naar verluidt vielen er geen gewonden.

Op een schaal van een tot vijf werd Carlos geklasseerd als een categorie 1, aldus de meteorologische diensten. De cycloon volgt twee weken na de gelijkaardige storm Yasi, die voor 1 miljard Australische dollar aan schade veroorzaakt heeft. (afp/adv)

HLN

564 mm in 56 uur tijd

quote:

Darwin residents warned to prepare but not panic

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is continuing to dump record levels of rain on Darwin as the city's residents deal with cyclonic weather.

More than 400 millimetres of rain fell on the city overnight, forcing the evacuation of 11 houses, and emergency services are preparing to use sandbags to protect more houses which face flooding when the tide peaks tonight.

At this stage the cyclone isn't expected to intensify above category two but the Top End does have a reputation for unpredictable cyclones. Michael Coggan reports from Darwin.

MICHAEL COGGAN: Darwin is familiar with cyclones; rarely does a wet season go by without one or two cyclones reminding Top Enders of the destruction caused by Cyclone Tracy in 1974. But Cyclone Carlos is different, even before it was officially declared a cyclone the weather system cut a swath through the Top End capital.

The combination of more than 400 millimetres of rain and winds, in excess of 100 kilometres per hour, have knocked down trees and powerlines across the city. Main roads have been cut by floodwaters and a 6.6 metre high tide this afternoon is expected to add to the 11 homes inundated overnight.

bron

[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 16-02-2011 14:55:59 ]

quote:

Tropical Cyclone Dumps Feet of Rain on Australia

Feet of rain from Tropical Cyclone Carlos have already inundated Australia's Top End with more rain to come before the cyclone finally departs later this week.
Carlos unleashed 22.24 inches of rain on Darwin, the capital city of Australia's Northern Territory, in 56 hours, ending at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday local time (3 a.m. EDT).
The 13.37 inches that fell in 24 hours, ending at 6:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday, set a new all-time daily rainfall record. The old record was held by Jan. 3, 1997 and its 11.43 inches.
The torrential rain has inundated homes and streets in and around Darwin. The Associated Press reports that several people had to be rescued from cars that became stalled in flood waters.
Gusty winds, which peaked at 61 mph in Darwin Tuesday morning EDT, worsened the situation by downing trees and power lines.
One man sustained injuries after being struck by a falling tree.

Darwin and other locations across Australia's Top End will be faced with more flooding problems over the next couple of days as Carlos slowly meanders southwestward and unleashes additional torrential rain.
The heavy rain will finally end Friday into Saturday as Carlos shifts into northern Western Australia.
Interaction with land will prevent Carlos from strengthening into a powerful cyclone. However, more damage to trees and power lines may ensue as tropical storm-force wind gusts continue to accompany the cyclone.

quote:

Carlos, and Now a New Australia Cyclone Threat

Even as Carlos continues to inundate Darwin, a new tropical cyclone, dubbed Dianne, has taken shape off northwestern Australia, from whence it will eventually threaten the nation's west with damaging winds and flooding rain.
Wednesday morning, EST, the center of T.C. Dianne lay about 300 miles northwest of Learmonth, near Cape North West, Western Australia. Highest sustained winds were at least 40 mph. The storm was nearly stationary.

The atmospheric setting will favor intensification, even rapidly so, during the next two days, so Dianne could become the equivalent of a strong hurricane.
Storm movement will become southward, maybe on a path intersecting the west coast of Australia near the end of the week.
Direct high wind impact will be confined to open seas for at least the next two days. However, moisture linked to Dianne will trigger local flooding downpours over far-western Australia, most of which is sparsely settled desert.
Depending on track, Dianne could eventually spark an outbreak of widespread flooding rain and even damaging winds.

Accuweather

[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 16-02-2011 14:53:25 ]

quote:

Darwin sets its all-time 24-hour rainfall record

Darwin, Australia suffered its greatest 24-hour rainfall in its history on Wednesday, when a deluge of 13.4 inches (339.4 mm) hit the city when Tropical Cyclone Carlos formed virtually on top of city and remained nearly stationary. Over the past three days, Carlos has dumped a remarkable 25.37" (644.6 mm) of rain on the Darwin (population 125,000), capital of Australia's Northern Territory. Carlos has moved slowly inland today, and continues to dump rain on Darwin, but these rains will gradually subside over the next few days as the storm weakens and moves farther inland. Not surprisingly, the rains have triggered major flooding in the Darwin area. The heavy rains in Darwin are due to the very slow motion of the storm, which has been able to keep a significant portion of its circulation over the warm 30°C (86°F) waters off the coast. These water temperatures are near normal for this time of year. Australia's west coast is also watching Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which is expected to remain offshore as it moves southwards, parallel to the coast.

quote:

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza makes a 2nd landfall in Madagascar

On Monday, Tropical Cyclone Bingiza roared ashore over Northern Madagascar as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for six deaths, has left 15,000 homeless, and has destroyed 8,500 buildings. After re-emerging over the waters of the Mozambique Channel between Africa and Madagascar on Tuesday, Bingiza re-intensified, and made a second landfall along the southwest coast of Madagascar early today as a tropical storm. Bingiza is expected to dissipate over Madagascar tomorrow, but not before dumping very heavy rains capable of causing additional flooding problems on Madagascar's deforested mountain slopes.

Bingiza is just the second tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90E) during the 2010 - 2011 season; this is an unusually low amount of activity for the basin. According to an email I received from Sebastien Langlade of the tropical cyclone forecasting office on La Reunion Island, January 2011 was the first January since accurate records began in 1998 that the Southwest Indian Ocean failed to record a single tropical storm. The only other storm in the basin so far this season has been Tropical Cyclone Abele (29 Nov - 4 Dec 2010), a Category 1 storm that stayed out to sea. Bingiza was the 4th major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclone world-wide this year.

Als je naar de kaarten van gfs kijkt is Australie ook nog lang niet verlost van Carlos. Dit systeem trekt volgens dit model nog langs de noordkust en westkust.

kaartje van volgende week vrijdag. Carlos ligt dan aan de westkust


[ Bericht 4% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 17-02-2011 20:30:05 ]

Bij de Vanuatu eilanden lijkt ook weer een storm te ontstaan.

Nieuwe tropische depressie voor Australie

Nummer 18 in de Indische Oceaan.

Een klein eilandje (Rodrigues met ongeveer 35000 inwoners) ligt op het pad van deze storm.

Tropical Storm CHERONO gaat een cat 1 worden.

Japan Typhoon Season: Will Disaster Areas be Hit?

While typhoon season doesn't typically ramp up around Japan until late summer, the threat of a tropical system affecting the fragile nation as it slowly recovers from the devastating earthquake and tsunami is a major concern.
Japan is located in the most active tropical basin in the world. Historically, tropical systems passing within 100 miles (160 km) of Sendai, Japan, an area hit hard by the earthquake and tsunami, have been observed as early as mid-June.
However, the threat of a tropical system affecting Japan usually becomes greatest in August and September, when ocean waters that far north are warmest, according to AccuWeather.com Expert Tropical Forecaster Dan Kottlowski.
In the western North Pacific Basin as a whole, typhoons and tropical storms can develop any time of the year, but the period from July through October is normally the most active.


This graphic displays the total number of tropical storms, as well as the number of those forecast to develop into typhoons and super typhoons, expected in the western North Pacific Basin in 2011 compared to the average number per year.

This year in the western North Pacific Basin, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is forecasting a fairly average typhoon season with a total of 27 tropical storms, 16 of which will become typhoons and 4 of which will strengthen into super typhoons.
The definitions of a typhoon, super typhoon, tropical storm and tropical depression are given at the bottom of this page.
Odds of a Typhoon Hitting Japan Disaster Areas this Year
There are several good things going for the disaster areas of Japan in terms of the risk of impact from a typhoon. However, despite these positives, tropical systems do affect northern Japan with some regularity, and flooding rain tends to be the biggest problem.
One of the positives is that only a small percentage of tropical systems that develop in the western North Pacific basin impact northeastern Japan.
Out of the estimated 1,757 tropical storms and typhoons that have formed in the western North Pacific basin between 1945 and 2008, approximately 40 (2 percent) have tracked within 100 miles (160 km) of Sendai. Storm tracks are based on the movement of the center or eye of the storm.
The other positive is that, historically, typhoons that do affect northern Japan tend to be in a weakening phase and do not pose a significant damaging wind threat.
This is due in part to the fact that these typhoons have often already made landfall either in southern Japan or somewhere else in the western North Pacific basin. It is also due in part to the fact that waters over which these systems track are cooler offshore of northern Japan.
Of the 40 tropical systems that passed within 100 miles of Sendai between 1945 and 2008, 16 were of typhoon strength at some point within 100 miles of Sendai. None of those typhoons were stronger than a Category 2 hurricane when they entered the 100-mile radius.
In fact, all but one of those 16 typhoons had a strength equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane during that time.


This image, courtesy of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Historical Hurricane Tracks database, shows the tracks of tropical systems that moved within a 100-mile radius of Sendai, Japan, between 1945 and 2008. Light blue represents systems in the stage of a tropical depression, while green depicts a stage as a tropical storm. The other colors represent typhoons, with yellow being Category-1 hurricane strength, orange Category-2 hurricane strength and red Category-3 hurricane strength.

Because tropical systems that affect northern Japan tend to be weaker, the threat of wind damage is not a major concern. This is especially true for the earthquake and tsunami-ravaged areas of northeastern Japan, where the topography is such that these areas tend to be protected from damaging winds.
While the chance of any given typhoon, especially one stronger than a Category 2 hurricane, impacting Sendai (and other locations throughout the disaster area) is extremely small, tropical systems do affect that area with some regularity.
From 1945 to 2008, tropical systems have passed within 100 miles of Sendai 29 out of the 64 years, which is almost half the total number of years. The longest period of time that went by without a tropical system passing within 100 miles of Sendai was 4 years.
So even if the disaster areas of Japan were to escape impact from a tropical system this year, history would suggest that a system will affect these fragile areas within the next several years.
The last time a tropical system tracked significantly close to Sendai was in 2009. So if history repeats itself, one would expect another system to affect that area by 2013.
If or when that happens, flooding rain will be the biggest threat.
What is a Typhoon?
A typhoon is essentially the same thing as a hurricane. Both terms are regionally specific names for a strong tropical cyclone with sustained winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph).
A super typhoon, as defined by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center, is a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of at least 150 mph (241 kph), which would be equivalent to strong Category 4 or a Category 5 hurricane.
The term tropical storm is a name for a weaker tropical cyclone with sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph (62-117 kph). A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone with sustained winds less than 39 mph.

Accuweather

Ten oosten van Fiji lijkt weer een tropische storm te ontstaan

Tropical storm BUNE



[ Bericht 11% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 24-03-2011 08:43:24 ]

Tropical Cyclone Bune

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be Active, Have more US Landfalls



AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Paul Pastelok, are predicting an active season for 2011 with more impact on the U.S. coastline than last year.
The team is forecasting a total of 15 named tropical storms, eight of which will attain hurricane status and three of which will attain major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
In a normal year, there are 10 tropical storms, six of which become hurricanes and two of which become major hurricanes, or attain winds that exceed 110 mph.
2010's historic season had a total of 19 named storms and ranks as the third most active season on record, but there was little impact on the United States coastline. Twelve of these storms became hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes. Two names from the 2010 season were retired on March 16.
"It looks like we're going to have more impact on the mainland of the U.S. coming up this year compared to last year," Pastelok said. "We had a lot of storms last year, but not a lot of impact [on the U.S.]."
In order to project the number of storms and impacts, the team looks at past years that have similar weather variables and patterns that closely resemble the most recent fall, winter and early spring months.

Factors for this Season
There are a number of physical drivers that have the team concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:
--The orientation and position of the Azores and Bermuda high-pressure areas in the Atlantic
The Azores high is one of the bigger influences on the movement of tropical cyclones. High pressure systems alter the direction of a storm by steering the storm, a low pressure system, around it. This is one way forecasters can predict the track of a hurricane.
"The forecast position and strength of the Azores or Bermuda high is always a challenging forecast," Pastelok said. "An unexpected change could greatly alter where both early season and mid season storms track."
AccuWeather.com Expert Tropical Forecaster Dan Kottlowski added, "We do see some changes in the overall pattern across the Atlantic."
Kottlowski continued, "The water temps are not nearly as warm as they were last year, and also the upper air pattern looks slightly different... than last year, so that could have an impact as to where that subtropical high, that big high pressure area that helps guide tropical storms, sets up."
"It may weaken or actually reposition itself a little bit to the northeast as we get later in the season, which would allow more of a storm track closer to Florida and also up the East Coast," Kottlowski concluded.
--The future state of the ongoing La Niņa
La Niņa is a phenomenon that occurs when the surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are colder than normal. La Niņa results in low wind shear, especially in the main tropical development area in the Atlantic. Shear refers to strong winds that are high in the atmosphere. Wind shear is a "hurricane killer," in that it can hinder storm development as well as break up existing storms.
"Currently, right now we still are in a La Niņa scenario, but it is starting to weaken," Pastelok said. "The signal is starting to show some signs of going neutral. That could have an impact on the westerly wind component down in the tropical Atlantic as well as the Caribbean. Stronger westerlies would prohibit major storms or a lot of storms, so it is a critical factor."
--The frequency and amount of dust that accompanies disturbances moving off the African coast
The presence of dust indicates dry air, which can hinder tropical development in the eastern Atlantic.
"Current projections on the weather pattern over Africa for this coming tropical season suggests there will be episodes of dust affecting development, but no more than normal," Pastelok said.
--A phenomenon known as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
AMO refers to the sea surface temperature in the northern Atlantic, and the temperature fluctuates from colder than average to warmer than average every few decades. Currently, the sea surface temperature is in the warm phase, and warm water is "hurricane fuel," in that it supports the development of tropical systems.
"We continue to observe the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation," said Paul Pastelok. "This will help to maintain warmer-than-normal water temperatures across most of the Atlantic Basin."



This Season's Concern Areas
As with most Atlantic hurricane seasons, the areas where storms are most likely to make landfall shift as the season progresses.
This year, the early season threat area will be the western Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Caribbean. Within this zone, the higher concern for landfalls will be along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.
As for the mid-to-late season zones, the eastern Gulf and Caribbean will be the focus. The higher concern areas will be the Florida Peninsula to the Carolinas.
"What we see is there is a clustering of storm impacts over the southeastern US, and that's the reason why we earmarked this as a concern area," said Kottlowski.
Another mid-to-late season concern for landfalls will be northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes.
"We feel that this season, there will be a higher potential for impacts across the southern part of the Basin into the Gulf of Mexico during the first part of the season," Pastelok stated. "This higher potential for impacts shift farther north into the southeast U.S. during the latter half of the season."
Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
For all the latest tropical information, be sure to check the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for the most up-to-date videos, information and storm tracks.

Doden door tropische stormen in Bangladesh

(Novum/AP) - Noodweer heeft in Bangladesh aan zeker dertien mensen het leven gekost. Daarnaast hebben rond de honderd mensen verwondingen opgelopen toen zes districten in het noorden van het land maandagavond door tropische stormen geteisterd werden.

In het getroffen gebied werden honderden onderkomens door de krachtige slagregens verwoest. Enkele duizenden mensen zijn dakloos geraakt. Dit hebben de Bengalese media dinsdag gemeld.

Nieuws.nl

Nieuwe tropische storm bij Australie

De namen die gebruikt gaan worden aankomend seizoen

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 14:06 schreef Floxxx het volgende:
Hmm, heeft iemand een idee wanneer ze de eerste (echte) orkaan verwachten? kan er niet veel over vinden (ja, ik weet het, officieel begint het orkaan seizoen op 1 juni, maar wanneer verwachten ze de eerste orkaan?)

Dat is moeilijk te zeggen. Het seizoen kan vroeg beginnen, maar kan ook net als vorig jaar pas laat op gang komen.
Aan de zeewatertemperatuur zal het niet liggen...

quote:

Op dinsdag 3 mei 2011 18:33 schreef Floxxx het volgende:

[..]

Ik doelde inderdaad op minimaal Cat 1, tropische stormen zijn niet zo interessant
Ik woon namelijk in Florida en probeer er meestal wel een oogje op te houden, maar heb nooit echt nagekeken wanneer het nou echt begint :p

Een tropische storm kan voor flink wat ellende zorgen.
Goed voorbeeld zijn de overstromingen in Australie begin dit jaar. Die werden veroorzaakt door een Tropische Storm...

Overstromingen Australie: Ergste in honderd jaar

Gebied bij de Filipijnen. Tijd geleden dat hier een serieuze orkaan is geweest.

quote:

Op donderdag 5 mei 2011 15:28 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Yasi, een monsterorkaan, kwam er toch ook nog overheen?

Die kwam inderdaad ook nog een aantal weken later.

quote:

Op donderdag 5 mei 2011 14:38 schreef thijsdetweede het volgende:

[..]

Zo dan. Da's een nog grotere resevoir aan 30+ water dan in 2010. En uiteindelijk is dat toch de bak met energie die de orkanen moeten ledigen...
Stiekem hoop ik op nog een Thomas die over Barbados heen scheert, en dat de instrumenten die we daar hebben staan het dan wel uithouden

En het is nog maar mei. Water is volgens mij vroeg op temperatuur.

Tropical Depression Develops, Threatens Philippines



An early-season tropical depression has formed east of the Philippines. Very heavy rain has begun to fall over central and northern areas of the nation and will continue to do so over the next several days.
Nearly 10 inches (250 mm) of rain has already fallen at Catarman as the center of the tropical depression remained just off the east coast.
The depression was moving slowly to the northwest at around 5 mph. Some slow strengthening into a tropical storm is likely over the next day or two before the center of the storm passes over northern Luzon Island in the northern Philippines early next week.
The main impact from this system will be localized flooding and strong winds, especially across eastern Luzon and eastern Visayas.
Daily rainfall totals can exceed 5 inches (125 mm) in many areas of central and northern Philippines, and could exceed 10 inches (250 mm) in a few locations. Widespread flooding will result, and could produce deadly mudslides.
Wind gusts can exceed 60 mph (95 kph) at the time of landfall over eastern Luzon Island. Landfall is expected late morning or early in the afternoon Monday, local time.

Accuweather

Tropical Storm AERE

Tropische storm eist minstens negen levens in Filipijnen

De tropische storm Aere heeft vandaag zeker negen levens geëist in het oosten van de Filipijnen. Vanwege de zware regenval en landverschuivingen zijn meer dan honderdduizend mensen geëvacueerd. Dat hebben de lokale autoriteiten bekendgemaakt.

Aere is de eerste grote storm dit jaar die het Zuidoost-Aziatische land aandoet. De storm trekt de komende uren naar Luzon, het grote eiland in het noorden. (anp/adv)

hln

Meer doden in Filipijnen door noodweer

(Novum/AP) - MANILLA - De tropische storm Aere heeft in het noordoosten van de Filipijnen aan zeker elf mensen, onder wie een baby, het leven gekost. Meer dan honderdduizend mensen zijn op de vlucht geslagen uit angst voor aardverschuivingen.

De storm kwam zondag in de provincie Catanduanes aan land en bereikte windsnelheden tot 85 kilometer per uur. Op sommige plekken werden windstoten van meer dan 100 kilometer per uur gemeten.

Het noodweer veroorzaakte aardverschuivingen en overstromingen en zorgde voor stroomstoringen in verschillende steden. Bijna vijfduizend forenzen strandden in havens, omdat veerboten niet uitvoeren. Een groot aantal wegen was gesloten, omdat ze waren overstroomd of omdat er aardverschuivingen dreigden. Tevens werd een aantal binnenlandse vluchten geannuleerd.

De storm verplaatst zich naar verwachting richting het noordwesten om de archipel vervolgens te verlaten, aldus de meteorologische dienst.

nieuws.nl

Dodental noodweer Filipijnen loopt op

MANILA (ANP/EFE) – Het dodental als gevolg van de tropische storm Aere op de Filipijnen is opgelopen tot dertien. Onder de slachtoffers zijn drie kinderen. Twee mensen worden vermist. Dat hebben de autoriteiten in het Aziatische land maandag gemeld. Eerder was melding gemaakt van negen doden.

De storm heeft vooral het oosten van de eilandengroep zwaar getroffen. Meer dan honderdduizend mensen daar zijn uit hun huizen verdreven door overstromingen en aardverschuivingen.

Het orkaanseizoen in Zuidoost-Azië begint doorgaans in mei of juni en houdt aan tot en met oktober of november. Gemiddeld krijgen de Filipijnen in die periode te maken met vijftien tot twintig gevaarlijke tyfonen.

bron

This graphic displays the total number of tropical storms, as well as the number of those forecast to develop into typhoons and super typhoons, expected in the western North Pacific Basin in 2011 compared to the average number per year.

Tropische storm eist 24 doden op Filipijnen

De tropische storm Aere heeft 24 levens geëist op de Filipijnen. Dat hebben de autoriteiten laten weten.

De storm geselde de Filipijnen zondag en ging gepaard met stortregens.
Op het grote eiland Luzon moesten bijna 70.000 mensen hun huizen verlaten. Er is zware schade aan de landbouw: een eerste schatting spreekt van 2,7 miljoen dollar, of zo'n 1,87 miljoen euro.

De Filipijnen krijgen elk jaar een twintigtal tyfoons te verwerken. Sommigen richten veel schade aan en zorgen ook voor doden. (belga/vsv)

hln

[ Bericht 1% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 11-05-2011 09:20:54 ]

Zondag 15 mei begint het orkaan seizoen in de Eastern Pacific. Er worden meer stormen met een naam verwacht dan vorig jaar. Vorig jaar waren er maar 7 stormen die een naam kregen.

Dit jaar worden er 15 stormen verwacht waarvan er 9 een naam zullen krijgen. 4 van deze stormen bereiken volgens de verwachting de major hurricane status. (Categorie 3 of meer)

quote:

Hurricane Season Starts Sunday in Eastern Pacific

"Fifteen named storms would more than double the total from last year"


Sunday marks the official start of the 2011 hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, a season which is expected to exceed the amount of named tropical systems from last year by twofold.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are predicting an average number of tropical systems to develop in the Eastern Pacific this year.
The basin averages 15 tropical storms each season. Out of those, nine become hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane status.
Fifteen named storms would more than double the total from last year. Only seven named storms formed in the Eastern Pacific in 2010, with three reaching hurricane status.
"Last year was... about as quiet as it can get," stated AccuWeather.com Western Expert Meteorologist Ken Clark.
"A strengthening La Niņa can be partially attributed to the lack of tropical storms [last year]," reported AccuWeather.com Staff Writer Gina Cherundolo in her recap of the 2010 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
A weakening La Niņa, on the other hand, will bring the basin's hurricane season back to normal this year.
"The water [in the Eastern Pacific] will steadily warm, which will lead to lower pressure," stated AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck. Lower pressure will then open the door for the development of tropical systems.
"Since the pressure will remain slightly above average early in the season, we are not expecting a quick start," Smerbeck added.
There are clusters of thunderstorms currently streaming across the Eastern Pacific, but none show signs of future development.
The first tropical storm to develop in the Eastern Pacific this year will acquire the name "Adrian."
Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific will run until November 30, which coincides with the end of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
The 2011 Atlantic Basin hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1. The earlier start time in the Eastern Pacific reflects how this basin typically turns active faster than the Atlantic.
On average, June 9 is when the first tropical storm is named in the Eastern Pacific. In the Atlantic, that date is July 10.
Hurricanes typically develop much quicker in the Eastern Pacific than the Atlantic. The average first date for a hurricane to form in the Eastern Pacific is June 24, but not until August 14 in the Atlantic.
Despite the Eastern Pacific being rather active, the majority of tropical storms and hurricanes never threaten land. A typical Eastern Pacific tropical system will head westward into open and progressively cooler ocean waters, dissipating in the process.
Occasionally, tropical storms and hurricanes will target Mexico and parts of Central America. Though less frequently, some tropical systems have threatened Hawaii. Hurricane Felicia approached Hawaii in 2009, but weakened below tropical depression status prior to reaching the islands.
Since records began, the cool water that lies offshore of California has protected the state from direct hits by tropical storms and hurricanes in every year but one. In September 1939, an unnamed tropical storm pressed onshore at Long Beach, California with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
Two other storms have moved into Arizona at tropical storm strength. The first was once-Hurricane Joanne in October 1972, followed by once-Hurricane Kathleen in September 1976.
No systems have reached the Southwest at hurricane strength.

Dodental op de Filipijnen is opgelopen tot 31.

quote:

Tropische storm Aere eist 31 levens op Filipijnen

De tropische storm Aere heeft op de Filipijnen al 31 mensen het leven gekost, zo hebben de autoriteiten laten weten.

De storm geselde de Filipijnen afgelopen zondag en ging gepaard met stortregens. Op het grote eiland Luzon moesten bijna 70.000 mensen hun huizen verlaten.

De Filipijnen krijgen elk jaar een twintigtal taifoens te verwerken. Sommige richten veel schade aan en zorgen ook voor doden.

hln

De namen die worden gebruikt in de Eastern Pacific

quote:

First tropical wave of the year over the Atlantic
The first tropical wave of 2011 is now over the tropical Atlantic near 6°N 46°W, according to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion. The wave will bring heavy rain to the northeast coast of South America over the next two days, but is too far south to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. The Atlantic hurricane season is just two weeks away, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began yesterday. So far, the models are not predicting any tropical storm development in the East Pacific or Atlantic over the next six days.

wunderground

PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niņo/La Niņa oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niņa event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niņo/La Niņa conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

Wunderground

Weer een cycloon voor de Filipijnen?