Hurricane Season 2011

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Zes cyclonen
De ellende is nog lang niet voorbij in Australië. In Queensland vrezen specialisten dat het stormseizoen nog een grote cycloon in petto heeft. Het seizoen duurt nog drie maanden en dus zou er nog veel neerslag uit de lucht kunnen vallen. Zeker tot woensdag zal het waterniveau blijven stijgen.

In november hadden weerkundigen een seizoen met zes cyclonen voorspeld

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At 9am Monday another low was located near 15S 112E and was nearly stationary.
This low is currently in an unfavourable environment but conditions for
development are likely to improve by Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High

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At 8am WST Tuesday a low [09U] was located near 14.9S 108.3E and was moving west
at 19 kilometres per hour. This low is likely to develop into a tropical
cyclone on Wednesday, by which time it will be tracking eastwards towards the
Pilbara coast. It is not expected to affect the coast on Wednesday or Thursday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
Friday :High

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SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal five south (13.5S)
longitude one hundred and forty nine decimal six east (149.6E)
Recent movement : north northwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 997 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 15/25 knots, increasing to 25/35 knots over the northern half.

Very rough seas developing.


Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 14 January: Within 150 nautical miles of 13.2 south 150.8 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 14 January: Within 180 nautical miles of 14.4 south 152.1 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

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Norfolk Island spared cyclone's wrath

Norfolk Island has been spared the full force of Tropical Cyclone Zelia, which is now moving to the east of the island.

Earlier, it was predicted to move directly across the island but it is currently about 60 kilometres to the north-east and is rapidly moving further off shore.

The weather bureau says it has been downgraded to a category two cyclone and is unlikely to cause any significant damage.

The bureau says winds could reach gale force in the next few hours and seas could rise up to seven metres.

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Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Tropical Cyclone Anthony is moving east in the northern Coral Sea and slowly
strengthening. Likelihood of TC Anthony remaining a tropical cyclone in Eastern
Region on:

Monday: High
Tuesday: High
Wednesday: High

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Potential Cyclones:
At 8am WST a tropical low was located just off the Kimberley coast near latitude
14.3S longitude 128.8E, about 75 kilometres west of Port Keats, moving north at
6 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move in a generally westwards
direction and be in the Western region [west of 125E] just off the Kimberley
coast on Tuesday. During the week the low is expected to move towards the
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone late on Tuesday or more likely on Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Monday :Low
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High

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Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Tropical Cyclone Anthony is moving east southeast over the central Coral Sea.
Likelihood of Tropical Cyclone Anthony remaining as a cyclone in the Eastern
Region on:

Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate

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A Tropical Cyclone Advice [IDW24100] is current for a developing tropical low.
At 8am WST Monday a tropical low was located over the north Kimberley near
latitude 14.7S longitude 127.1E, about 65 kilometres southeast of Kalumburu,
moving west at 16 kilometres per hour. Please refer to the latest Advice. The
low is expected to move in a generally westwards direction and be in the Western
region [west of 125E] just off the Kimberley coast on Tuesday. During the week
the low is expected to move towards the southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Tuesday or more likely on
Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High

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Tropical Cyclone Brings Heavy Rain to Western Australia


A tropical cyclone will continue to affect northwestern Australia over the next few days. The cyclone formed Sunday over the Timor Sea and quickly moved inland across the Kimberley area of Western Australia. It is expected to reemerge offshore, gain strength, and brush much of the northern coast of Western Australia over the next few days.
Heavy rainfall has affected areas along the track of the cyclone. Kalumburu had 6.42 inches Monday, and Theda had nearly 7 inches.
The cyclone is maintaining good organization despite being over land. It will emerge back into the Indian Ocean early Tuesday, local time. It should quickly gain tropical storm strength, then parallel the Kimberley coast through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are most likely in the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, and Kuri Bay. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the towns of Port Hedland and Exmouth Wednesday and Thursday.
Port Hedland is Australia's busiest port. It serves as an export point for iron ore, and other minerals mined across Western Australia. However, Port Hedland should not suffer a direct hit by the cyclone.
Fortunately, Western Australia has been spared the devastating flooding that has affected much of the rest of the country.

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Op woensdag 26 januari 2011 15:37 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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SITUATION

At 0600 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal four south (17.4S)
longitude one hundred and fifty four decimal eight east (154.8E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony may redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the
next 6 to 18 hours.

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Cyclone Wilma to rock north


Parts of the upper North Island are in for a gusty weekend with exceptionally strong winds and possible flooding forecast as a cyclone moves past the country.

Tropical Cyclone Wilma is near New Caledonia and is due here late tomorrow night, the MetService says.

"It should sideswipe the northeastern parts of Northland on Saturday morning, then get pushed off to the southeast and sideswipe Gisborne on Sunday evening. Then it will move way off to the east of us," said MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt.

The MetService has issued severe rain warnings for Auckland, eastern Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne for tomorrow morning, saying slips or flooding are possible.

The heaviest rainfall is expected in Northland where 150mm to 200mm may fall within 24 hours. Mr McDavitt said the rain would be accompanied by gales.

"The cyclone has very tight isobars around it which makes the winds very strong."

Weather Watch chief analyst Philip Duncan said the upper North Island might have flooding similar to last Sunday's.

"Because it's a tropical storm it has very, very heavy rain which is not too good for the long weekend. And the winds will be gale force further north which is exceptionally strong ...

"But the good news is that when the winds pick up you know the rain's about to stop."

He said the cyclone would not affect the temperature and he has forecast between 24C and 26C for most of the upper North Island.

"The humidity may increase a little bit, but it won't get as bad as we've had recently."

Mr Duncan said the severe wind and rain would move off the country quickly with the promise of clear weather on Sunday and Monday.

"It's a quite a fast-moving weather system."

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Cyclones menace WA, north Queensland

Emergency services are keeping a close eye on three cyclones approaching the coasts of North Queensland and Western Australia's south-west respectively.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony has reformed into a category one system off North Queensland and has turned back towards land.

The weather bureau says the cyclone reformed this morning and is about 950 kilometres north-north-east of Townsville.

Forecaster Greg Connor says it is likely to cross the coast between Cooktown and Mackay sometime early Monday morning.

"We do expect it to intensify. It's probable that it will get to category one or two, but there is the possibility it will get to category three before it gets to the coast," he said.

"The big danger with Anthony is that it's starting to move now towards the coast and we're likely to be putting out a cyclone watch for the coastal listening area for this evening from 5:00pm onwards."

Another system is off Fiji and could hit Queensland as a category four or five cyclone as early as next Thursday.

This system potentially poses the bigger threat to Queensland.

Premier Anna Bligh says she has reactivated the state's disaster management group to deal with the threat.

Ms Bligh also says the associated rain could bring more flooding.

And authorities along the south-west coast of Western Australia are preparing for possible damage from Cyclone Bianca.

The bureau says there is a significant risk that Bianca, a category three system, could maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday.

Forecasters have issued a cyclone watch for areas including Perth, Bunbury and Busselton. The cyclone passed Exmouth overnight, bringing strong winds but no reports of damage.

Wild weather

Bureau regional director Mike Bergin says although Bianca is expected to weaken to a category one system overnight, there will likely be very wild weather on Sunday.

"[There will be] damaging wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour, so that will see severe to extreme fire danger with the northerly winds," he said.

"We'll be seeing very rough seas, increasing swells, significant wave heights probably up towards four metres. We'll probably see beach erosion as well."

The United States Navy website suggests the cyclone will cross the coast very close to Perth.

Fire and Emergency Services spokesman Allen Gale says the cyclonic activity will bring a mixture of problems.

"One of the big effects is the fire danger weather on Sunday - that will be a very significant, possibly up to a catastrophic [level warning]," he said.

Mr Bergin describes the cyclone as an "evolving story" and says people in the area should keep informed.

"Bianca still has a considerable distance to travel, better than 1,500 kilometres across the Indian Ocean," he said.

"So the uncertainties in the time of arrival are significant but the risk is very high."

The bureau has also warned low-lying coastal areas may be flooded.

But it says Bianca is not expected to be as bad as Cyclone Alby which hit Perth in 1978.

Alby claimed five lives and caused widespread damage in the Perth metropolitan area.

Earlier today a red alert was lifted for Exmouth and Coral Bay as the cyclone headed away from the coast.

Queensland Deputy Police Commissioner Ian Stewart says residents in the danger zone need to be prepared.

"I'd be asking people to think about stocking up on essential items, but there is no need for panic buying," he said.

"Make sure they have fuel in their vehicles, items in their yards and around their houses that could become missiles are put away or tied down."

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Rough night ahead for North Islanders

Much of the North Island is in for a night of strong winds and heavy rain as the tail of a cyclone passes over.
And there are severe weather warnings in place.
The low causing the conditions used to be known as tropical cyclone Wilma. It has weakened on its way here, so it is no longer a cyclone. But it is still bringing plenty of rain down across Northland, through Auckland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty, and out to the East Coast.
Northland has already been getting drenched since this afternoon, and with the ground up there already wet, the heavy rain is bound to cause flooding, although conditions should ease by the morning.
There is also a strong wind warning for eastern areas.
The torrential rain and strong winds are going to carry on throughout the night in Northland, Auckland and in the central and eastern North Island.
Many areas are looking at getting at least 100 millimetres of rain overnight.
These conditions can cause flooding and wind damage, and will certainly make driving conditions dangerous.
Most of the rain should have cleared by tomorrow afternoon, but if the forecasts are correct, there's likely to be a bit of mopping up to do over the weekend.

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Op vrijdag 28 januari 2011 12:02 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

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Ja in Auckland vanmorgen al meer dan 100mm en komt meer aan, had er nog een stukje over geschreven

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Wilma is expected to be reclassified as an Ex-Tropical Cyclone as it passes by northern New Zealand overnight, but will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern parts of the North Island.

Another 80 to 150mm of rain is likely in these areas on top of what has already fallen, with rainfall rates possibly reaching 25 to 40mm per hour for a time.

Rainfalls of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding,
lead to slips and will cause rivers and streams to rise quickly, says MetService.

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Op vrijdag 28 januari 2011 12:25 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

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Zodan dat is dan aardig wat, de neerslagkaart hierboven is van de afgelopen 12 uur, mss 200+mm. Moet er niet aan denken, vriendin van mijn broertje gaat vandaag terug naar Auckland, zal een drama zijn daar

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Cyclone Wilma hits Northland

Flooding has trapped two Kaeo families in their homes and another two people in their car as the remnants of Cyclone Wilma cause havoc across Northland.

Police Inspector Shawn Rutene said slips, flooding and fallen trees had caused a number of road closures.

Emergency services were working to rescue two families were trapped in their homes by the rising Kaeo River, he said.

Elsewhere in Northland, police were trying to rescue two people trapped after logs blocked the road at Okaihau and in the Coromandel two people were trapped in a car.

Emergency services throughout Northland were stretched and police were asking people to keep off the roads, Rutene said.

Police expected when high tide hit around 4am some low lying roads would be impassable due to water.

There was also understood to be flooding in Matakana, Mangawhai and along the waterfront at Paihia.

Earlier, MetService warned that Wilma's remnants would bring heavy rain to Northland, Auckland, Waikato, the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne.

Rainfall rates were forecast to reach up to 25 to 40mm per hour for a time.

Strong or gale force winds were also forecast. Winds were forecast to reach severe gale overnight in parts of eastern Northland and Great Barrier Island where gusts of 130 km/h were possible, MetService said.

Northeast swells and very rough seas were forecast for eastern coastal areas from Northland to East Cape.

Rain should clear from most areas by midday tomorrow, though it may continue into the afternoon for Gisborne, MetService said.

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The Bay of Plenty, Northland and the Coromandel have a clean up job on their hands after tropical cyclone Wilma battered the regions over night.
For the second weekend in a row coastal towns and rivers were flooded, closing roads and causing evacuations.
The bucketing rain left roads up north underwater, and homes, as well as water and sewage treatment plants were damaged.
State Highway One heading north from Auckland was closed with traffic having to be diverted.
The New Zealand Transport Authority says people should only drive if absolutely necessary, and if they do they should take extreme care.
The Bay of Plenty also copped it again after being soaked last weekend.
On State Highway 2 between Tauranga and Whakatane there were three slips within two kilometres. Trucks were trapped in between them, drivers couldn't get out but they were lucky just to be able to stop in time.
Campers at the Mt Maunganui campground were woken at 4am by the flooding.
Despite the rain, Tauranga City residents are being urged to conserve water for the next 24 hours.
Both of the city's water processing plants have been shut down because of the heavy rain, and a major water main's broken meaning the city's relying on reservoir storage.
Some campers though have still been able to enjoy themselves.
I thought better transport kayaking down than walking down so I thought I would give it a go, says camper Shaun Middleton.
In Waipuna nine patients were evacuated from a hospice as river water surged from the Kaimai Ranges.
We had volunteers with four wheel drives ferrying people back and forwards across the flood, they became our ferry for the day, says Waipuna Hospice CEO Richard Thurlow.
Further north in the Coromandel it was a similar story.
A slip on the Thames Coast road forced the evacuation of two houses, one of which could still come down with the moving earth.
Some of the boulders that have come through are the size of cars. There's a pine tree on the beach that was on the front yard of one of the houses that was evacuated, so it's reasonably dangerous, says Thames volunteer fire brigade station officer Ken Brokenshire.
Tropical cyclone Wilma has now passed over the North Island, however the MetService is warning that gale force winds will hit exposed places in the Far North, Auckland, East Coast and Taranaki.

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Two cyclones threaten flood-ravaged Qld

Communities along almost 2000 kilometres of Queensland coastline are preparing for the first of two tropical cyclones to hit.

By 7pm (AEST) on Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Anthony was about 830 kilometres northeast of Townsville and was expected to cross the coast late on Sunday or early Monday as a category one or low category two system.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is expecting high rainfall for north and central Queensland and abnormally high tides are expected between Townsville and Bowen.

It comes amid concern a second cyclone, named Yasi, will develop from an intense tropical low currently near Fiji and hit the Queensland coast next Thursday.

The area of concern extends 1700 kilometres from Cooktown down to Hervey Bay, including several major population centres - Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton, Gladstone and Bundaberg.

State disaster management coordinator Ian Stewart urged people living in these areas to prepare.

"The reason we are considering this broader area, is to ensure that the preparations of the community and emergency service personnel are adequate for Tropical Cyclone Anthony ... and a further cyclone Yasi, later in the week," he said.

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Tropical Cyclone Anthony has been downgraded to a tropical low after crossing the Queensland coast but is still causing severe conditions in the state's north.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony crossed the coast near Bowen about 10pm (AEST) as a category two system.

It was packing winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour near its core.

Weather bureau senior forecaster Ben Annells says there has been falls of up to 300 millimetres in the Pioneer River catchment near Mackay.

"That heavier rain is starting to move inland as well and we're starting to see some falls above 50 millimetres through parts of the central interior of Queensland," he said.

Even though the system has since been downgraded to a tropical low, the bureau is still warning of heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts about the central coast, the Whitsundays, and the northern parts of the Central Highlands and coalfields.

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People in north Queensland have been warned to expect wind speeds of up to 260 kilometres per hour when a "big, ugly sister" cyclone makes landfall later this week.
Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ), police and weather officials are meeting across the state's far north today to discuss the possible threat of Tropical Cyclone Yasi.
The category-one system is north-west of Vanuatu but is expected to intensify before crossing the Queensland coast on Wednesday or Thursday.
Authorities fear the massive cyclone could be as intense as Cyclone Larry, which devastated parts of far north Queensland in 2006.
Queensland Police says it is the "big, ugly sister" to Cyclone Anthony, which caused only minor damage as it crossed the state's north coast near Bowen, south of Townsville, overnight.

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Bureau warns cyclone season far from over

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a very good chance that more cyclones will hit Australia before the season is out.

Communities in north-west Queensland are preparing for category one Cyclone Yasi, which crossed the coast as a category five storm overnight and left a trail of destruction.

The towns of Tully, Mission Beach, Cardwell, Silkwood and Innisfail bore the brunt of the monster storm's 285kph winds but there are no reports of deaths or serious injuries.

The director of the bureau's National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre, Chris Ryan, says Cyclone Yasi has generally behaved as predicted so far.

He says Yasi was more intense than both Cyclone Tracy and Cyclone Larry.

"For the Queensland coast this is an exceptional storm. Its intensity looks like it's the most intense for many decades, perhaps going back before we had satellite imagery to properly measure the intensity of cyclones," he said.

The La Nina system which sparked the cyclone season is still well and truly kicking and Mr Ryan says more cyclones could be on the way.

"The waters all around tropical Australia are still abnormally warm," he said.

"The predictions for the general activity and the monsoon that covers northern Australia at this time of year are that it will actually intensify to some extent over the next couple of weeks.

"So there's certainly every chance that we will see one or more cyclones on either or both sides of the continent over the next couple of months."

He says he would not be surprised if another big cyclone forms.

"The situation hasn't changed to make it any less susceptible to severe cyclones developing again," he said.

As emergency crews and residents begin to assess the damage in coastal regions, Mr Ryan says the bureau is conscious of the risk of false alarms, but at this stage the warnings have matched people's experiences.

"The problem of false alarms and crying wolf is one that we're very conscious of with all of the warnings that we issue," he said.

"In this case we'll have to see how it's perceived. But from everything that I've heard, people who were in the midst of this have all said it was the worst they've ever experienced.

"It was terrifying. And that matches what we were leading them to believe would happen."

Mr Ryan says while the bureau is not yet able to retrieve wind speed measurements, it has estimated speeds of up to 290kph on the coast.

He says it is unusual for a cyclone to remain a category three once it has moved inland for as long as Yasi did.

"Cyclones tend to start to deteriorate very quickly once they lose that energy source from the ocean," he said.

"Yasi, being so big, and to some extent more self-contained, has lasted longer. It was still category two... some 11 or so hours after it crossed the coast. That's pretty unusual. And we're not expecting it to drop below category one until late [Thursday]."

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Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:02 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Bij Madagascar lijkt zich ook wat te ontwikkelen nu, redelijke kans tot ontwikkeling

[ afbeelding ]

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Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:35 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

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