Hurricane Season 2011

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Bureau warns cyclone season far from over

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a very good chance that more cyclones will hit Australia before the season is out.

Communities in north-west Queensland are preparing for category one Cyclone Yasi, which crossed the coast as a category five storm overnight and left a trail of destruction.

The towns of Tully, Mission Beach, Cardwell, Silkwood and Innisfail bore the brunt of the monster storm's 285kph winds but there are no reports of deaths or serious injuries.

The director of the bureau's National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre, Chris Ryan, says Cyclone Yasi has generally behaved as predicted so far.

He says Yasi was more intense than both Cyclone Tracy and Cyclone Larry.

"For the Queensland coast this is an exceptional storm. Its intensity looks like it's the most intense for many decades, perhaps going back before we had satellite imagery to properly measure the intensity of cyclones," he said.

The La Nina system which sparked the cyclone season is still well and truly kicking and Mr Ryan says more cyclones could be on the way.

"The waters all around tropical Australia are still abnormally warm," he said.

"The predictions for the general activity and the monsoon that covers northern Australia at this time of year are that it will actually intensify to some extent over the next couple of weeks.

"So there's certainly every chance that we will see one or more cyclones on either or both sides of the continent over the next couple of months."

He says he would not be surprised if another big cyclone forms.

"The situation hasn't changed to make it any less susceptible to severe cyclones developing again," he said.

As emergency crews and residents begin to assess the damage in coastal regions, Mr Ryan says the bureau is conscious of the risk of false alarms, but at this stage the warnings have matched people's experiences.

"The problem of false alarms and crying wolf is one that we're very conscious of with all of the warnings that we issue," he said.

"In this case we'll have to see how it's perceived. But from everything that I've heard, people who were in the midst of this have all said it was the worst they've ever experienced.

"It was terrifying. And that matches what we were leading them to believe would happen."

Mr Ryan says while the bureau is not yet able to retrieve wind speed measurements, it has estimated speeds of up to 290kph on the coast.

He says it is unusual for a cyclone to remain a category three once it has moved inland for as long as Yasi did.

"Cyclones tend to start to deteriorate very quickly once they lose that energy source from the ocean," he said.

"Yasi, being so big, and to some extent more self-contained, has lasted longer. It was still category two... some 11 or so hours after it crossed the coast. That's pretty unusual. And we're not expecting it to drop below category one until late [Thursday]."

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Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:02 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Bij Madagascar lijkt zich ook wat te ontwikkelen nu, redelijke kans tot ontwikkeling

[ afbeelding ]

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Op woensdag 9 februari 2011 10:35 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

[..]

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Potential Cyclones:
At 2pm WST a developing tropical low [16U] was located near 19.1S 112.7E, about
350 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and moving towards the west southwest
at 24 kilometres per hour. Refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Advice
[IDW24100] for details.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
Friday :High

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Potential Cyclones:
A developing Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, was located over the western Top End near
13.2S 130.5E, approximately 100km south southwest of Darwin at 12:30 pm CST on
15 February and moving slowly west northwest. The low is expected to move north
or north northwest into the Beagle Gulf and may develop into a tropical cyclone
during Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region on:
Wednesday: High.
Thursday: High.
Friday: High.

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Darwin residents warned to prepare but not panic

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is continuing to dump record levels of rain on Darwin as the city's residents deal with cyclonic weather.

More than 400 millimetres of rain fell on the city overnight, forcing the evacuation of 11 houses, and emergency services are preparing to use sandbags to protect more houses which face flooding when the tide peaks tonight.

At this stage the cyclone isn't expected to intensify above category two but the Top End does have a reputation for unpredictable cyclones. Michael Coggan reports from Darwin.

MICHAEL COGGAN: Darwin is familiar with cyclones; rarely does a wet season go by without one or two cyclones reminding Top Enders of the destruction caused by Cyclone Tracy in 1974. But Cyclone Carlos is different, even before it was officially declared a cyclone the weather system cut a swath through the Top End capital.

The combination of more than 400 millimetres of rain and winds, in excess of 100 kilometres per hour, have knocked down trees and powerlines across the city. Main roads have been cut by floodwaters and a 6.6 metre high tide this afternoon is expected to add to the 11 homes inundated overnight.

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Tropical Cyclone Dumps Feet of Rain on Australia

Feet of rain from Tropical Cyclone Carlos have already inundated Australia's Top End with more rain to come before the cyclone finally departs later this week.
Carlos unleashed 22.24 inches of rain on Darwin, the capital city of Australia's Northern Territory, in 56 hours, ending at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday local time (3 a.m. EDT).
The 13.37 inches that fell in 24 hours, ending at 6:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday, set a new all-time daily rainfall record. The old record was held by Jan. 3, 1997 and its 11.43 inches.
The torrential rain has inundated homes and streets in and around Darwin. The Associated Press reports that several people had to be rescued from cars that became stalled in flood waters.
Gusty winds, which peaked at 61 mph in Darwin Tuesday morning EDT, worsened the situation by downing trees and power lines.
One man sustained injuries after being struck by a falling tree.

Darwin and other locations across Australia's Top End will be faced with more flooding problems over the next couple of days as Carlos slowly meanders southwestward and unleashes additional torrential rain.
The heavy rain will finally end Friday into Saturday as Carlos shifts into northern Western Australia.
Interaction with land will prevent Carlos from strengthening into a powerful cyclone. However, more damage to trees and power lines may ensue as tropical storm-force wind gusts continue to accompany the cyclone.

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Carlos, and Now a New Australia Cyclone Threat

Even as Carlos continues to inundate Darwin, a new tropical cyclone, dubbed Dianne, has taken shape off northwestern Australia, from whence it will eventually threaten the nation's west with damaging winds and flooding rain.
Wednesday morning, EST, the center of T.C. Dianne lay about 300 miles northwest of Learmonth, near Cape North West, Western Australia. Highest sustained winds were at least 40 mph. The storm was nearly stationary.

The atmospheric setting will favor intensification, even rapidly so, during the next two days, so Dianne could become the equivalent of a strong hurricane.
Storm movement will become southward, maybe on a path intersecting the west coast of Australia near the end of the week.
Direct high wind impact will be confined to open seas for at least the next two days. However, moisture linked to Dianne will trigger local flooding downpours over far-western Australia, most of which is sparsely settled desert.
Depending on track, Dianne could eventually spark an outbreak of widespread flooding rain and even damaging winds.

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Darwin sets its all-time 24-hour rainfall record

Darwin, Australia suffered its greatest 24-hour rainfall in its history on Wednesday, when a deluge of 13.4 inches (339.4 mm) hit the city when Tropical Cyclone Carlos formed virtually on top of city and remained nearly stationary. Over the past three days, Carlos has dumped a remarkable 25.37" (644.6 mm) of rain on the Darwin (population 125,000), capital of Australia's Northern Territory. Carlos has moved slowly inland today, and continues to dump rain on Darwin, but these rains will gradually subside over the next few days as the storm weakens and moves farther inland. Not surprisingly, the rains have triggered major flooding in the Darwin area. The heavy rains in Darwin are due to the very slow motion of the storm, which has been able to keep a significant portion of its circulation over the warm 30°C (86°F) waters off the coast. These water temperatures are near normal for this time of year. Australia's west coast is also watching Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which is expected to remain offshore as it moves southwards, parallel to the coast.

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Tropical Cyclone Bingiza makes a 2nd landfall in Madagascar

On Monday, Tropical Cyclone Bingiza roared ashore over Northern Madagascar as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for six deaths, has left 15,000 homeless, and has destroyed 8,500 buildings. After re-emerging over the waters of the Mozambique Channel between Africa and Madagascar on Tuesday, Bingiza re-intensified, and made a second landfall along the southwest coast of Madagascar early today as a tropical storm. Bingiza is expected to dissipate over Madagascar tomorrow, but not before dumping very heavy rains capable of causing additional flooding problems on Madagascar's deforested mountain slopes.

Bingiza is just the second tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90E) during the 2010 - 2011 season; this is an unusually low amount of activity for the basin. According to an email I received from Sebastien Langlade of the tropical cyclone forecasting office on La Reunion Island, January 2011 was the first January since accurate records began in 1998 that the Southwest Indian Ocean failed to record a single tropical storm. The only other storm in the basin so far this season has been Tropical Cyclone Abele (29 Nov - 4 Dec 2010), a Category 1 storm that stayed out to sea. Bingiza was the 4th major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclone world-wide this year.