Hurricane Season 2009

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Op maandag 12 januari 2009 22:49 schreef aloa het volgende:
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Current Tropical Cyclones Australie

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With winds near 130 knots (150 miles per hour), Tropical Cyclone Hamish was a powerful Category 4 storm (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) as it paralleled the northeast coast of Australia at the end of the first week of March 2009. Initial predictions were that the storm would weaken and come ashore just north of Brisbane on March 9, but instead, the storm veered more east than south, drawing the eye of the still-powerful storm away from land.

This image of Hamish was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on March 9, 2009 at 3:30 Universal Time Coordinated. The storm was compact, with a ring of towering of thunderclouds surrounding the cloud-filled eye. A few hours before this image was taken, Hamish had maximum sustained winds near 110 knots (127 mph), with gusts up to 135 knots (155 mph). Northwest of the storm, the waters around the Great Barrier Reef were bright turquoise, a sign that winds and waves had churned up sediment.

Although the risk of a direct landfall had lessened, the dangers from strong winds and flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges remained. Thousands of residents of low-lying coastal communities north of Brisbane evacuated their homes, and forecasters warned that the storm’s path and intensity would remain uncertain until Wednesday.

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Op dinsdag 7 april 2009 15:08 schreef buachaille het volgende:
Tropische storm Jade heeft huisgehouden in Madagascar.

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2009 Atlantic Season prediction

MIAMI (Reuters) - The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to produce six hurricanes, the noted Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team said on Tuesday.

The storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 12 tropical storms and predicted that a weak El Nino event could form during that period.

El Nino, an unusual warming of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, tends to diminish Atlantic hurricane activity by contributing to strong wind shear that can tear apart nascent storms.

The CSU team lowered its forecast from December, when it predicted the 2009 season would see 14 storms and seven hurricanes.

The 2008 Atlantic season was one of the busiest on record, with 16 tropical storms. Eight of those became hurricanes, with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher.

Last season spawned five hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. A record number of consecutive storms hit the United States.

But Cuba got the worst of last season's destruction. Three major hurricanes hit the Caribbean island, destroying or damaging nearly half a million homes, flattening sugar cane and tobacco fields and causing an estimated $10 billion damage.

The long-term average for the Atlantic hurricane season is about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes. But experts said a period of heightened Atlantic hurricane activity started around 1995 and was expected to last 25 to 40 years.

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Tropical Storm Jade was coming ashore over Madagascar on April 6, 2009, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this photo-like image. The storm formed over the Indian Ocean on April 4, and briefly intensified into a Category 1 cyclone on April 5. The storm weakened before coming ashore. About the time that MODIS captured this image, Jade’s winds were decreasing from about 102 kilometers per hour (63 miles per hour or 55 knots) to 93 km/hr (58 mph or 50 knots).

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Tropical Cyclone Bijli came ashore over eastern Bangladesh on April 17, 2009. The storm caused little damage, according to news reports, but did dump heavy rain on Bangladesh and neighboring Burma (Myanmar). This image, made with data captured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite on April 17, shows the rainfall associated with the storm.
As much as 50 millimeters of rain fell per hour in the regions where rainfall was heaviest, shown in red. Outside the area of concentrated heavy rain, the rainfall was relatively light, as shown by the wide field of blue. The measurements shown in this image are from a variety of sensors on the TRMM satellite. Rain rates in the center of the swath (lighter area) are from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, the first precipitation radar in space, and those in the outer part of the swath are from the TRMM Microwave Imager. The rain rates were overlaid on infrared data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner.
Designed to measure rainfall from space, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite has been in service for over 11 years and continues to provide valuable images and information on tropical cyclones around the tropics using a combination of passive microwave and active radar sensors.

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Op maandag 27 april 2009 23:01 schreef aloa het volgende:
Hier alle namen op een rij

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Within a week’s time, the northern Philippines island of Luzon was hit by two tropical cyclones. On May 2 and May 3, 2009, Tropical Storm Kujira inundated parts of southern Luzon in the northeast-central Philippines with torrential rains. On May 7, Typhoon Chan-hom (known locally as "Emong") made landfall on the northwest coast of Luzon, bringing strong winds, heavy rains and yet more flooding to the beleaguered island. The distribution of rain from the two storms is shown in this image.
The image is based on data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, which was launched in November 1997 with the objective of measuring rainfall over the Tropics. In addition to making direct rainfall measurements, TRMM data are used to calibrate rainfall estimates from other satellites. This image was made with such TRMM-calibrated data from the near-real time Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) between May 1 and May 10.
The most extreme rainfall totals, located over southern Luzon, are associated with Tropical Storm Kujira. The storm lingered over the region, dumping 600 millimeters or more (about 24 inches) of rain, shown in dark blue. After pulling away from the island, Kujira developed into a powerful typhoon. The fast-moving Typhoon Chan-hom roared ashore over northern Luzon on May 7, where it dropped about 150 mm (6 inches) of rain (green). The large difference in rainfall between the two storms was due to the difference in their forward motion and not their intensity—Kujira was a slow-moving tropical storm at the time, while Chan-hom was a fast-moving typhoon.
The two storms together left at least 63 people dead, reported the AFP wire service on May 10. Most of the fatalities occurred as a result of landslides and floods. Additional images of the two storms are available on the TRMM web site.

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Aila moves towards coast
The cyclonic storm 'Aila' over north Bay and adjoining west central Bay moved northwards over the same area.

The storm is likely to intensify further and move in a northerly direction and cross West Bengal-Khulna coast by afternoon or evening.

It was centred at 9am on Monday about 435 km southwest of Chittagong port, 405 km southwest of Cox's Bazaar port and 285 km southsouthwest of Mongla port, said a special weather bulletin issued Monday morning said.

Maximum sustained wind speed within 54 km of the storm centre is about 70 kph rising to 90 kph in gusts or squalls. Sea will remain very rough, the bulletin said.

Maritime port of Mongla has been advised to keep hoisted danger signal number seven.

The coastal districts of Bhola, Barisal, Patuakhali, Barguna, Pirozpur, Jhalokathhi, Bagerhat, Khulna, Satkhira, Jessore and their offshore islands and chars will be under danger signal number seven.

Maritime ports of Chittagong and Cox's Bazaar have been advised to keep hoisted danger signal number six.

The coastal districts of Cox's Bazaar, Chittagong, Noakhali, Feni, laxmipur, Comilla, Chandpur and their offshore islands and chars will be under danger signal number six.

Under the influence of the storm, the coastal districts of Khulna, Bagerhat, Borguna, Satkhira, Barisal, Patuakhali, Bhola, pirozpur, Jhalokathhi, Laxmipur, Noakhali, Feni, Chandpur, Chittagong, Cox's Bazaar and their offshore islands and chars are likely to experience heavy to very heavy rain accompanied by squally winds of speed up to 90 kph with the passage of the storm.

The low-lying areas of the coastal districts of Khulna, Bagerhat, Borguna, Satkhira, Barisal, Patuakhali, Bhola, Pirozpur, Jhalokathhi, Laxmipur, Noakhali, Feni, Chandpur, Chittagong, Cox's Bazaar and their offshore islands and chars are likely to be inundated by storm surge of height of six to eight feet above normal astronomical tide.

All fishing boats and trawlers over north Bay have been advised to remain in shelter till further notice.

River traffic halted

The weather has forced suspension of ferry movement since 8am Sunday on all rivers routes, Patuakhali river port official Md Shahidul Mia said.

Fishermen are coming back from the sea because of high tide, said general secretary of fish traders committee Nimai Chandra from Kuakata.

The rivers in the costal areas are flowing in high tide because of the depression in the bay, said Ahsan Azim from Charkajal.

It had been raining sporadically in the coastal areas of Patuakhali since Saturday midnight, our correspondent said.

Barguna wary

The people of the coastal southern district of Barguna, hit by cyclone Sidr in late 2007, are living in constant fear on the news that a depression in the Bay of Bengal has deepened and still intensifying.

Our correspondent says it has been raining sporadically since Saturday midnight and the sun has remained behind the clouds.

Hundreds of fishing trawlers have returned to Pathorghata, Noli and Taltoli from the Bay until Sunday afternoon, said president of Barguna District Trawler Owners' Association Golam Mostafa Chowdhury.

"We will start calling people to shelter buildings through megaphones as soon as the level of the signal is increased," said the team leader of cyclone preparation activities and member of Borguna Red Crescent Unit Zakir Hossain Miraj.

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Aila maakt zeker 28 doden in India en Bangladesh

Na de doortocht van de cycloon Aila zijn in het oosten van India en buurland Bangladesh zeker 28 doden geteld. In de miljoenenmetropool Calcutta (Kolkata) alsook in andere delen van de deelstaat West-Bengalen lieten 19 mensen het leven. In Bangladesh kwamen negen mensen om het leven. Er zijn nog tientallen vermisten.

De cycloon kwam met windsnelheden tot 120 kilometer per uur aan land en zorgde voor aanzienlijke schade. Alleen in India werden zo'n 110.000 mensen uit hun huizen verdreven. Het leven in Calcutta viel maandag stil. De autoriteiten hadden de kustbewoners 's morgens voor de cycloon gewaarschuwd. De tropische storm vormde zich boven de Golf van Bengalen. In Bangladesh ligt de passage van cycloon Sidr in november 2007 nog vers in het geheugen: die eiste toen aan ongeveer 4.000 mensen het leven, tienduizenden personen raakten dakloos. (BEH)

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UPDATED: 12:50 pm EDT, July 1, 2009
MAJOR OUTBREAK OF DRY, STABLE AIR IN EAST ATLANTIC AS EAST PACIFIC IS ABOUT TO POP

SAL is back. In this case, the Saharan Air Layer. It is a blast of warm, dusty and very stable air that comes off of Africa and extends out in to the Atlantic. Check out the link below from the CMISS site. It shows very clearly the strong SAL outbreak. You can track its progress over the coming days as the air mass migrates westward. What does it mean for tropical development? A solid cap placed on convection in the east Atlantic- at least for now. While there is a forecast for less than average dust outbreaks over the Atlantic, we can expect to see bursts like the one today. It is fascinating to see and modern satellite technology allows easy tracking of these large scale features.

The Atlantic Basin is and will be very quiet for many days to come. No worries at all for coastal areas for this coming big weekend.

In the east Pacific, all is quiet for now but it appears that several areas of development may pop up in the coming days. The ECMWF model in particular is showing a string of storms developing in about 3 to 10 days. The good news is that it would appear that these potential developments would be far off the coast of Mexico and moving generally away from land. It is amazing to see computer model forecasts for something that is not there now, but very well could be several days out. We'll see. The east Pacific is primed for development right now so it would make sense at least.

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UPDATED: 10:15 am EDT, July 17, 2009
TROPICAL WAVES IN ATLANTIC GETTING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE

We are about a month away from the real meat of the hurricane season getting started. Signs of that are starting to appear as we see the tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic beginning to get a little stronger. One such wave is being "outlooked" by the NHC as having a low chance of development. It has by far the most impressive look to it of the season but has a long way to go before it would develop fully. Conditions are still quite hostile across much of the deep tropics and the Caribbean Sea. None the less, we'll obviously monitor it as it tracks steadily westward over the next week to 10 days. It won't go away, the energy will remain even if it does not develop right away. Where that energy ends up is important. The farther west these things make it before blossoming, then the closer they are to land areas.

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Typhoon Molave weakens to tropical depression, bringing heavy rain to south China

GUANGZHOU, July 19 (Xinhua) -- Typhoon Molave weakened into a tropical depression Sunday afternoon after it landed in south China's Guangdong Province early Sunday and then entered neighboring Guangxi.

The storm made landfall in Nan'ao Town in Shenzhen City at 12:50 a.m. with winds of up to 145 km per hour at its center.

From 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Sunday, downpours drenched Zhanjiang, Maoming, Jiangmen and Yangjiang in Guangdong, with 13 hydrological stations reporting precipitation of more than 100 mm, the Guangdong Hydrological Bureau said.

As of 5 p.m., no casualties were reported in Guangdong.

Maritime rescuers successfully pulled a stranded vessel off Shantou, Guangdong, to Haimen Port of Shantou amid high winds and saved seven crew members on it at 9:30 a.m. Sunday.

The storm left Guangdong and entered Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region at 1:40 p.m. and downgraded into a tropical depression at 3p.m. in Wuzhou City.

The National Meteorological Center forecast Sunday afternoon rainstorms would sweep parts of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and Guizhou Sunday night to Monday.

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Even though we are seeing a more active pattern with the emergence of stronger tropical waves in the Atlantic, thee is still no reason to be concerned that any of them will develop. The main reason is hostile upper level winds. While we are seeing a flare up of convection with the tropical wave about to move through the Windward Islands, and this will certainly bring its share of squally weather to the region, upper level winds will not allow for much more organization. This is fairly typical of this time of the year as we are still several weeks away from the start to the rapid ramp up in expected activity.

Another area to at least monitor over the coming days is a large and complex weather pattern well off the Southeast coast. It is a combination of mid to upper level energy interacting with a tropical wave and its heat and energy. All of this spells plenty of convection over the southwest Atlantic but nothing seems to be consolidating in to a surface low pressure. If you're heading to the Bahamas, depending on where you are, there is a chance of off and on showers and thunderstorms as this mess of weather persists over the week ahead. It should all lift out by the weekend.

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Though Typhoon Molave was still a tropical storm when it moved across the northern tip of Luzon, the largest of the Philippine Islands, on July 17 and July 18, 2009, its drenching rains caused widespread flooding. By July 20, the clouds had cleared enough to give the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite this view of the flooded island. The lower image, from July 15, 2009, shows the Cagayan River system in northern Luzon before the storm came ashore.
Both images contain a mixture of infrared light and visible light to increase the contrast between water and land. In this type of image, water is black. Sediment-laden water tends to be dark blue. The lush, plant-covered land of the tropical island is bright green, while clouds are pale blue and white.
In the wake of the storm, dark pools of water mark the land along the length of the Cagayan River and its tributaries. The flooding is most pronounced near the shore. Another sign of flooding is the plume of sediment that flows from the mouth of the Cagayan River. Floods sweep soil off the land and carry it into rivers and the ocean. The river plume contains more sediment than it had on July 15.
According to the AFP news service, Typhoon Molave caused at least three deaths in the Philippines. Much of the damage came from widespread flooding throughout Luzon. About 95,000 people were evacuated from their homes outside Manila in southern Luzon as a result of flooding, reported the AFP news.

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On July 17, 2009, when NASA’s QuikSCAT satellite captured the data used to make this image, Tropical Storm Molave hung over the northern Philippines, drenching the islands with heavy rain and causing widespread flooding. The image shows the structure of winds within the strengthening storm. Purple and red depict the highest wind speeds, while blues and greens point to calmer winds. Barbs indicate the direction of the wind, and white barbs indicate areas of heavy rain. The calm eye of the storm is a circle of blue surrounded by yellow and red. The strongest winds are close to the center on the east side of the storm.
QuikSCAT measures wind speeds over the ocean by sending pulses of microwave energy through the atmosphere to the ocean and measuring the energy that bounces back from the wind-roughened surface. The energy of the microwave pulses changes depending on wind speed and direction, giving scientists a way to monitor wind around the world. About the time that QuikSCAT acquired this image of Tropical Storm Molave over the Philippines, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated the storm’s maximum sustained winds to be about 110 kilometers per hour (70 miles per hour or 60 knots).

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UPDATED: 8:30 am EDT, July 22, 2009
COMPUTER MODELS POINTING TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OFF SOUTHEAST COAST SOON

As I mentioned in yesterday's evening post, I am increasingly confident that we will see a low pressure area form somewhere off the Southeast coast- probably later tomorrow. It is originating from what has been a somewhat complex weather pattern over the SW Atlantic. Arriving on the scene shortly is a tropical wave that will add energy to the system. Several of the global computer models indicate that a surface low will form and strengthen as it moves roughly parallel to the East Coast. It appears that it will be far enough off shore to keep the weather from being too adversely affected but boating interests should be aware of this developing situation. The NHC is showing a low chance of development as of now but I believe this will go up later today. If the low is tropical in nature, with a warm core and defined banding features, it could very well get a name- our first of the season. We'll have watch as this system evolves but it does not look to be a significant threat to land- more just an interesting feature to track. I'll post an update later this afternoon.

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NON-TROPICAL STORM LASHING NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT

Thought I would post a quick update on the non-tropical storm that is affecting a good deal of New England tonight. Checking the latest wind readings- I see wind gusting to 31mph in Montauk with an air pressure reading of 1009 mb. Elsewhere, in Bridgeport, CT, heavy rain is falling with winds steady at 20-25 mph out of the northeast. This is all due to a potent storm that has some of its energy derived from the tropical wave that emerged from Africa many days ago. This wave became quite active in the central Atlantic and looked like it might develop enough to become a tropical cyclone. It did not quite make it but the resulting ocean storm is packing quite a punch for late July! I was in this very region last September tracking hurricane Kyle and believe me, this will be quite a different story than Kyle- or any event of this nature in many years. The storm should pass quickly in to Canada tomorrow but not before dumping very heavy rains and bringing gusty winds and coastal flooding to the remainder of New England

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As far as the tropics go- we will end July without any issues what so ever. All is quiet and should remain that way for another week to perhaps 10 days. After the first week of August, I see a pattern change in the upper level wind flow that could allow for organized deep convection to begin flaring up in the Atlantic Basin. The tropical waves over Africa are strong and robust but the atmosphere over the eastern Atlantic has not been favorable to allow them to develop. There are signs in the longer range modeling that suggest this will change for a time beginning close to mid-August. For now, no problems exist in either the Atlantic or the east Pacific- so far so good.

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TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES LIKELY TO BE SCARCE FOR A WHILE

From the looks of things, we will not see any tropical storms or hurricanes anytime soon. The pattern is still simply not conducive for any significant development. We are seeing quite a robust line of tropical waves emerge from the coast of Africa but hostile upper level winds and other factors are keeping them in check and not allowing them to grow and develop. I see nothing in the long range computer models to suggest a change anytime soon. After about August 10 or so, there may be a period of more favorable conditions but this remains to be seen

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Op maandag 3 augustus 2009 23:01 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Het is druk op de kaart

[ afbeelding ]

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DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE AS PATTERN READIES FOR DEVELOPMENT

Things are changing. The east Pacific is getting quite active and the reasons for it are coming east with time. Right now we have TS Enrique and TD 8-E in the waters well off the coast of Mexico- neither system poses an immediate threat to land. What it appears to indicate however, is that a more favorable pattern is migrating west to east and should be in the Atlantic Basin within the next few days. We are already seeing a very impressive tropical wave far out in the east Atlantic that has the NHC calling for a low chance of development. Some of the computer models pop in and out with latching on to this feature as it moves steadily west. Water temps are certainly warm enough but upper level conditions and even the moisture content of the atmosphere may limit development for a while longer. None the less, as we progress through the next week to 10 days, I expect that we will see a gradual increase in the chances of getting a named storm somewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

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NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image that showed a huge cyclone named Morakot tracking through the East China Sea, on the way to a landfall in mainland China. Morakot is a large storm with maximum sustained winds near 69 mph (60 knots), just 5 mph shy of a category one hurricane strength. It's currently located in the East China Sea, near 23.2 north and 130.4 east. That's about 300 miles southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Its moving west near 14 mph. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder is an instrument used in tropical storm research that flies on Aqua. AIRS provides visible, infrared and microwave images of tropical storms. AIRS also measures cloud top temperature and pressure and the profile of water vapor as functions of height. Infrared imagery shows the temperature of the cloud tops which gives a hint about the power of the thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone. The colder the clouds are, the higher they are, and the more powerful the thunderstorms are that make up the cyclone. Morakot will keep moving westward, and it will remain in warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the next 72 hours, which will enable it to maintain its strength. Morakot's forecast track takes the center north of Taiwan and predicts a landfall almost directly between Hong Kong and Shanghai on August 6.

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A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY AS WE GET DEEPER IN TO AUGUST

Even though it has been a very quiet hurricane season for the Atlantic, things are about to change and in a hurry. First up however, is TS Felicia in the Pacific. The good news, and it really is considering how strong Felicia was recently, is that the storm is on its way down in terms of overall impacts to Hawaii. The latest forecast track from the CPHC shows Felicia passing to the north of the Big Island with the storm quickly fading while it does so. Effects should be quite minimal with the exception of increased seas along the north facing beaches. Not sure if they are filming LOST out there now or not (huge fan here), but it could make for some incredible sunsets coming up. Other than that, Hawaii will not sustain any serious negative impacts from Felicia.

In the Atlantic, the pattern change to a more favorable environment seems to be well on its way. We have what looks to be a developing depression way out near the Cape Verde Islands and even more energy lining up over Africa. These next two weeks or so could very well be the most active part of the hurricane season if forecasts for a hostile peak in September hold true. The long range computer models are latching on and developing multiple systems over the next several days. This is all very much expected and is by no means a surpise- even in the face of such a slow start to the season. There is absolutely nothing to be alarmed about right now. The season is coming to life and people all along the coastal areas of the U.S. and adjacent land masses should simply pay attention and be ready to act if one of these potential developments poses a problem down the road. It's all about being aware. We are very busy these days and life moves fast. The tropics can change just as fast but still give us plenty of warning. So far, we are looking really good this season- the hope is that it continues. But hope alone will not prepare people for what may lie ahead.

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UPDATED: 8:10 pm EDT, August 10, 2009

I do not have much in the way of new information tonight since nothing dramatic has really taken place since this morning. In the Pacific, Felicia is still winding down and should pass through Hawaii without much fanfare. In fact, the storm is basically just a swirl of low clouds with sparse convection at best.

In the Atlantic, we'll be watching 99L way out near the Cape Verde Islands for slow development. It could take a while and of course, there is no guarantee it will ever really get cranking. However, its energy will remain in tact even though it may not become a tropical cylcone right away. We must always watch these kinds of features as the progresses steadily westward. Elsewhere, tropical waves at around 47 west and 62 west also bear close monitoring as they too try and organize slowly. The pattern is becoming more and more favorable for us to see perhaps several named storms over the coming two to three weeks. Nothing out there just yet but it's getting close.

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Op dinsdag 11 augustus 2009 18:08 schreef Vogue het volgende:
TVP.... Blijft een boeiende topicreeks dit

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Op dinsdag 11 augustus 2009 18:08 schreef Vogue het volgende:
TVP.... Blijft een boeiende topicreeks dit

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UPDATED: 9:15 am EDT, August 12, 2009
TROPICS GOING TO BE BIG NEWS OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS

It is time to pay closer attention to the Atlantic Basin and its growing areas of concern. I say concern because it is time to take notice of what is going on out there and be prepared for it. I am not talking about just the United States either- remember, we have quite a few land masses out there in the Basin. Here's what we have...

TD2 should become a tropical storm later today if it is not one already. It is not of much concern right now and should avoid the Lesser Antilles as it moves west over the next five days. Beyond that time period, we will just have to see if it survives a trip through some stronger upper level winds before worrying where it ends up. There's plenty of time to monitor its progress and thus far, it looks to remain fairly weak.

The other developing story will be a new tropical cyclone taking shape right now off the coast of Africa. The GFS computer model in particular has been remarkably consistent with its forecast of a long-track system in the Atlantic. The tropical wave that would be "the one" is now off the coast of western Africa and is already looking better organized as each hour passes. It should become a tropical depression within the next two days and rapidly strengthen beyond that. My first concern is for the Lesser Antilles. From the looks of the steering patterns, an almost due-west track seems likely for this system once it gets going. This would put it in the vicinity of the Windwards and Leewards in about a week- maybe less. I figured people would want as much notice as possible just in case the computer modeling is even close to spot on. Run after run after run of the GFS shows this system plowing through the eastern Caribbean. Perhaps the model will be wrong, but it did a similar job of accurately forecasting the genesis and track of powerful hurricane Dean in 2007. So if you live in or are planning a trip to the Lesser Antilles and surrounding region, pay close attention to the tropics from now on. We have the luxury of seeing the possible future with computer guidance and related technology, there should be no suprises in this day and age.

Lastly, a tropical wave crossing the Antilles now should continue generally WNW and in to the Gulf of Mexico early next week. We'll see if it blossoms and develops more. This is where model guidance is tough because some show development, others do not. It is a feature to watch until it interacts with land and dies away. Its passage through the Caribbean will bring sporadic showers and thunderstorms but otherwise not much more than that.

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Op donderdag 13 augustus 2009 14:22 schreef Party_P het volgende:

[..]

Volgende week woensdag zit die bij domicaanse republiek/cuba als het zo doorgaat....laat ik nou net volgende week woensdag een tussenlanding hebben op cuba, haha

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Op donderdag 13 augustus 2009 21:42 schreef Party_P het volgende:

[..]

Nja hij kan aan kracht winnen

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Op donderdag 13 augustus 2009 21:42 schreef Party_P het volgende:

[..]

Nja hij kan aan kracht winnen

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 10:56 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
De golf van Mexico is al aardig opgewarmd naar een dikke 30-32 graden

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Op zaterdag 15 augustus 2009 18:00 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
En de tweede is er nu ook zo te zien word dat een cat2
[ afbeelding ]

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ANA, BILL AND 91L ALL KEEPING US PLENTY BUSY

There is quite a lot going on tonight as the tropics have sprung to life in grand fashion. We have TS Ana, TS Bill and now 91L in the eastern Gulf of Mexico- plus a new tropical wave off of Africa that could develop over the next few days.

First, let's discuss the system in the Gulf. It is in association with a tropical wave that we have tracked for the last week or so. It is now trying to flare up in a small area just to the west of Florida. Tampa radar can clearly see a counter-clockwise spin to the feature out over the open Gulf. Hopefully it will move inland later tomorrow or Monday before much more organization can take place. But, let's remember Humberto two years ago off the Texas coast. It was small and was able to ramp up very quickly. Do not be suprised to see this do something similar- perhaps not that dramatic but there is a chance that this becomes a tropical depression or even a tropical storm before reaching the coast along the Florida Panhandle or nearby. We'll watch it closely and people visiting/living in the area need to be ready for a quick change to the weather as this system comes rolling in. It will have squally weather with gusty winds and rough seas. It will be interesting to see what the NHC says about it tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, Ana is struggling to keep its existence going against dry air and a fairly quick forward pace. Odds favor this one falling short of its potential which is great news for areas to its west. This is not say that nothing will happen but the intensity forecast is looking better with each update. Still, people in the northern Leewards through Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should pay close attention to the future progress of Ana. Remember- rain fall can be deadly if too much falls too soon or over terrain that cannot handle it.

Bill continues to demonstrate to us that it will become a powerful hurricane over the next few days. It is large and steadily getting better organized over the deep tropical Atlantic. The latest forecast suggests more good news for the islands of the NE Caribbean as Bill should pass by to the north and east. The models are trending towards a more northwesterly course towards the five day time period. How much so and then what happens after that remains to be seen. Obviously, we will keep up with the latest model runs to see what guidance they can provide.

Farther east and off the west coast of Africa we are monitoring another tropical wave with potential for development as it too moves west. Things will be quite busy over the next several days with a lot of information coming out of many sources.

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Op maandag 17 augustus 2009 17:07 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Wel jammer dat Bill afbuigt naar het noordwesten...

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UPDATED: 10:55 pm EDT, August 17, 2009
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BILL

This will be kind of short since there are no earth-shattering changes in the forecast for Bill. Top winds are now 100 mph and are expected to easily go higher and make Bill a solid category three hurricane. It is interesting too that the NHC mentions the fact that computer models suggest that Bill will grow in size as well- covering more ocean. That should be amazing to see- hopefully not at the expense of it hitting land somewhere.

So what about that? Where is Bill headed? The NHC continues to project a track more to the north over time as a break in the large ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic allows Bill to slip in- like water finding its way in to a crack in a large rock. From there, it is possible that Bill could turn east of north and never affect land or it could turn too late and clip Bermuda, the East Coast of the U.S. and/or the Canadian Maritimes. None of the models are really reliable enough to project that far in to the future to determine where Bill will end up. I will say this, if it makes it past 70 west longitude, then it would have to turn east of north to miss the East Coast of the U.S.- right now, the 5 day plot is 68.5 or 1.5 degrees east of that essential spot (in my mind). So as you can see, every degree west that this thing tracks is critical down the road. Folks in Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast and particularly the Canadian Maritimes should stay on top of this. I am sure you would even without me saying so- but this is an August hurricane with potential to deal quite a punch should it hit land.

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Op dinsdag 18 augustus 2009 11:19 schreef kidkash19 het volgende:
Mooie site

www.stormpulse.com

Leuk ook dat als je het tabje clouds aanzet je precies alle wolken ziet opgelijnd vanaf Egypte tot Florida

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UPDATED: 10:30 am EDT, August 18, 2009
FORECAST FOR BILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE U.S. BUT NOT SO MUCH PERHAPS FOR BERMUDA- REMNANTS OF ANA KICKING BACK TO LIFE AS WELL

Things are looking better and better in regards to hurricnae Bill and its possible impact on the United States. The forecast models are showing a high probability that Bill will turn north and then northeast away from the East Coast later in the week. It should also miss the Lesser Antilles as well but will bring increased surf there. Speaking of surf, this should be a surfer's dream come true for the East Coast as Bill is likely to pass between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras. More on that in a day or two. The real threat appears to be to the island of Bermuda and people there need to obviously keep a close eye on the future progress of Bill. It is forecast to be a major hurricane and a large one at that. Once past Bermuda, we'll have to see how close it cuts to the Canadian Maritimes. But unless something unexpected happens, I see no way for Bill to get over to 70 degrees west or more and affect the U.S. East Coast.

We are also watching the remnants of Ana as they pass over and around Cuba and the Bahamas today. There is a considerable flare up of convection and once in to the SE Gulf, this could have a chance to come back. Remember how quickly Claudette ramped up- let that be a guide to what could happen with former Ana if conditions favor. Either way, squally weather is on the way to south Florida and the Keys as this wave passes through en route to the Gulf of Mexico.

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Op woensdag 19 augustus 2009 07:02 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Het gaat hard met Bill! Nu al cat.2. Cat. 5 is niet ondenkbaar met 10% binnen 48 uur. Heftig!

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BILL NOW UP TO 140 MPH- A CATEGORY FOUR - WITH ROOM TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING BUT WILL IT HIT LAND?

Bill has ramped up its intensity since yesterday and is now a sold category four hurricane. Top winds are near 140 mph and are forecast to reach a little higher. It will not be until Bill interacts with an upper level trough and cooler sea surface temps that it will begin to weaken. For now, it will continue to generate enormous waves and send them out across the Atlantic.

Obviously everyone wants to know where Bill is headed. For now, it looks very promising that it will not directly impact the Lesser Antilles as it should move past their latitude later today. Bermuda is seemingly next in line to have to potentially deal with Bill but the latest track models have shifted west even more- taking Bill WEST of Bermuda and closer to the NC Outer Banks.

One of the models, the UKMET, puts Bill at 70.7W and 32.8N over the weekend as the hurricane feels the effects of a rather deep low pressure area carved out in the upper atmosphere. This will more than likely turn Bill north and then northeast. The big issue is when this happens and how sharp a turn away from the coast Bill will have.

Other models are out near 68W and keep the hurricane far enough off New England to spare them a direct hit. However, Bill will likely grow in size and could still bring strong winds and dangerous seas to the Northeast and the Canadian Maritimes. I would be most concerned about Nova Scotia and Newfoundland right now but Cape Cod and vicinity is within the 5-day cone of uncertainty. It is still possible for Bill to adversely affect New England or even points south. The key will be the next 48 hours and how far west Bill gets before it stops gaining longitude. If it gets back as far as 72 or 73 west at 35 north, then we are in for some major problems along the U.S. coast. As it stands now, the odds still favor a good miss but those odds are dwindling just a little with each passing day.

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Op woensdag 19 augustus 2009 15:28 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

[..]

Ik lees overal tussen een 6 meter en 12 meter

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BILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NOVA SCOTIA AFTER PASSING FAIRLY CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND- BUT HOW CLOSE?

There is not a lot of new info tonight, nothing unexpected, concerning Bill. The latest forecast brings the hurricane inland over Nova Scotia Sunday and then Newfoundland on Monday. This would likely be a very bad event for them as Bill will pass over very warm water even as it turns north in a couple of days. People in the Canadian Maritimes need to begin thinking about their hurricane preparedness plans now. This has the potential of being a severe event for that region.

First Bill must pass Bermuda and should do so to the west- hopefully enough so that the worst effects are kept over the ocean. From there, it all depends on how far north and west Bill tracks before fading east towards the Maritimes. Only a small portion of New England is within the cone of uncertainty now which is good news. I think we have about 48 more hours until we will know whether or not New England will have to deal with hurricane conditions or just a breezy day. One thing is certain, large and dangerous waves are heading for land. Surfers will like this but everyone should be very careful out there. Please be sure to monitor your LOCAL beach conditions- when in doubt, ask a lifeguard or call your local NWS office. I'll have more here tomorrow morning and will decide at that point whether or not we will be taking a trip to Cape Cod for a meeting with Bill this weekend

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Op donderdag 20 augustus 2009 11:40 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Ik denk dat een gedeelte van de Oostkust van de U.S. ook het nodige gaat mee krijgen. New York etc...daar gaat ie bijna net zo rakelings langs als langs Bermuda.

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Op donderdag 20 augustus 2009 16:14 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Zou het nog kunnen dat Bill zich bedenkt en alsnog over de golf van mexico gaat?

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Bill's waves

Hurricane Bill is generating huge waves, thanks to its enormous size and major hurricane intensity. Bill passed about 75 miles southwest of Buoy 41044 this morning, and the buoy recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 92 mph, with a significant wave height (the height of the average 1/3 highest waves) of 38.8 feet. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 50 feet by Saturday. Large swells from Bill will reach Bermuda this afternoon, increasing seas to 5 - 9 feet, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Seas will increase to 10 - 20 feet on Friday and 20 - 30 feet on Saturday as Bill makes its closest approach to the island.

In the U.S., Bill's swells will reach New York's Long Island on Friday afternoon, and seas will build to 7 - 10' on Saturday and 12 - 16' on Sunday in the near shore waters. By Friday night, Bill's swells will be affecting the entire U.S. East Coast from Florida to Cape Cod. Maximum sea heights in near shore waters over the weekend will be about 7' from Florida to South Carolina, 11 - 14' along the North Carolina coast, 8 - 11' along the mid-Atlantic coast, and 10 - 11' along the coast of Maine. The highest waves along the U.S. coast will occur at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where waves of 18 - 23' are being forecast by NOAA for Sunday. Bill's high waves are going to cause millions of dollars in erosion damage and create very dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions along the coast.

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AMAZING FORECAST FOR BILL SO FAR BUT THE EFFECTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD

The NHC has done quite an incredible job with the forecast for Bill. It has not pulled any suprises and seems to be following pretty much what was predicted by the folks in Miami. The hope is, obviously, that this will continue and Bill will not have the kind of impact that it is capable of. None the less, [b]the effects from Bill will be felt far and wide and I am not kidding about this.

Huge waves will impact Bermuda soon followed by a great deal of the Atlantic side of North America. In some place that typically have erosion problems, ocean overwash is coming. Houses and other structures already too close to the water will be in even more peril. All of this without the hurricane making a direct hit. It is that kind of hurricane that we are dealing with. For folks in Bermuda, Bill will pass well to the west but its huge size will still spread rain and wind with flooding storm surge-like wave action. I have not seen an Atlantic hurricane like this in a long time.

Once past the latitude of Bermuda, Bill should start to turn more northward and then east of north. When this happens is so critical to what effects are felt in New England and the Canadian Maritimes. So far, the NHC track has remained well offshore of New England but even there, large waves will do damage to the coastline.

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Op vrijdag 21 augustus 2009 16:46 schreef Vogue het volgende:
Bill is een rare orkaan... Als hij landfall maakt in Nova Scotia is het nog steeds een categorie 1 als ik het goed zie. Is er ooit wel eens een orkaan categorie 1 in Canada geweest? En wij krijgen volgende week donderdag en vrijdag ook rotweer, zelfs als hij in Ierland / Noord Engeland aan land komt schijnt het nog een (sub)tropische storm te zijn!

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Orkaan Bill in Canada

MIAMI - De orkaan Bill heeft maandagochtend de kust van de provincie Newfoundland in het uiterste oosten van Canada bereikt. Dat heeft het Amerikaanse orkanencentrum in Miami gemeld. De stormwind trekt nu over het zuidoostelijke deel van Newfoundland

De golven die met de hevige wind gepaard gingen, hebben in de staat Maine in het noordoosten van de Verenigde Staten een meisje van 7 jaar het leven gekost. President Barack Obama stelde zondag zijn vakantie op het eiland Martha's Vineyard voor de Amerikaanse oostkust enkele uren uit, totdat de orkaan was voorbijgetrokken.

Bill is de eerste Atlantische orkaan van dit jaar. De wervelstorm valt in categorie 1 van de zogeheten Saffir-Simpsonschaal, die wordt gebruikt om de kracht van orkanen te meten. Dat betekent dat de orkaan zwak is en lichte schade aanricht. Vorige week was Bill nog een orkaan van de vierde categorie, het op een na hoogste niveau.

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NOW THAT BILL IS GONE, WHAT'S NEXT?

The NHC is no longer issuing advisories on Bill as the system has transformed in to a non-tropical type of ocean storm. The one-time category four hurricane certainly left its mark throughout the western Atlantic Basin and will be remembered for a while to come I am sure. So what's next?

It is still only late August and we have a lot of hurricane season left to deal with. In fact, there is likely more activity brewing now that could impact the weekend ahead. A large area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms is slowly organizing a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This is associated with a tropical wave that flared up several days ago and then died off.

Now that Bill has cleared the pattern, the tropics are conducive for development again. A look at the usual global computer models suggests that we will see the development of a tropical depression somewhere near the Bahamas in about 72 hours- maybe less. None of the models show the system getting very strong which is good news.

As is always the case, we'll just have to watch and see how things unfold with the upper air pattern and steering currents. I would say it is a safe bet that unsettled weather will be the rule in the SW Atlantic by mid-week. Water temps in the region are very warm and mostly undisturbed so there is potential for tropical cyclone formation in this region. Also of note, the GFS, which handled the genesis of Bill to near perfection, is showing another Cape Verde system getting organized over the next 3-5 days. Other models are not as aggressive as the GFS but its run to run consistency is picking up a little.

We would expect to see development just about anywhere in the Atlantic at this point so it is nothing to be alarmed about. We remain in an active pulse period with favorable conditions in many areas. Just keep aware of the latest goings on and we'll keep posting new info as it comes in

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Dodental in Taiwan blijft oplopen

TAIPEI - De tyfoon Morakot, die Taiwan eerder deze maand trof, heeft inmiddels aan 376 mensen het leven gekost. Meer dan 250 mensen worden nog altijd vermist. Dat heeft de Taiwanese regering dinsdag gezegd.
Maandag ging Taiwan nog uit van 292 doden en bijna vierhonderd vermisten. Bijna alle slachtoffers komen uit het zuidelijke dorp Hsiaolin, dat tijdens het noodweer werd bedolven onder een modderstroom.

Op de puinhopen zal een herdenkingspark worden aangelegd. Het dorp zelf zal niet worden opgegraven, maakte de burgemeester maandag bekend.

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Tropical wave (92L) with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is located a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico, and is tracking west-northwest at 20 mph. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some increased organization of the storm, with upper-level outflow on the north side and a hint of a surface circulation trying to form near 22N 62W. However, the disturbance is moving underneath an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this upper-level low is generating 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. The upper low is also dumping cold, dry air into 92L, and this is retarding development of the storm. Dry air is getting ingested into 92L's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface (Figure 1). Nevertheless, 92L appears determined to become a tropical depression over the next day or two, and NHC is giving 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning

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92L CLOSE TO BECOMING A DEPRESSION AND MOST LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM

The first good visible satellite photos of 92L show that it has developed a low level circulation but lacks deep thunderstorms all the way around that center. Strong winds are blowing the convection off to the west but this is likely to let up just enough to allow this to become our next named storm: Danny. The Hurricane Hunters are out there now investigating and we may have a new storm to track within the next couple of hours. The forecast from the various computer models is interesting to say the least. It is possible that this system will have a direct impact on the North Carolina coast and then farther north this weekend. The UKMET, ECMWF and Canadian CMC all show this coming far enough west to either clip Cape Hatteras or maybe go just west of there as it heads northward. People from the NC coast all the way to New England need to be watching this closely- a weekend tropical storm threat in late August is nothing to take lightly. In fact, some of the intensity guidance strongly suggests that this could make it to hurricane strength WHILE MOVING NORTH past the NC Outer Banks. Water temps are very warm all the way up to just off the coast of New York- so it would not suprise me at all to see this become a serious threat to the East Coast. How much so remains tough to call right now.

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Op donderdag 27 augustus 2009 01:03 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:
Volgend jaar ligt El Nino toch in Atlantic?
Dat wordt nog leuk dan.

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I THINK IT IS PRETTY MUCH ALL OVER FOR DANNY- GREAT NEWS FOR THE EAST COAST

A quick update here after looking over some of the very latest data on Danny. I think the NHC is right on track with forecasting what will amount to be a very weak tropical storm moving roughly parallel to the East Coast of the U.S. It will probably induce some pretty good rains as all of the energy from the tropics and the upper level support coming in from the Midwest all combine/interact this weekend. There will be some waves and the threat of rip currents once again so please be careful out there. Otherwise, Danny will most likely go down as a major underachiever- which ends up spelling great news for residents and visitors to the East Coast. It could transition in to quite the summertime Nor'easter and folks in Nova Scotia should be ready for some foul weather this weekend. Our attention will quickly turn to 94L which has all the makings of becoming our next named storm- but it poses absolutely no threat to land areas anytime soon.

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Orkaan Jimena op weg naar Mexico

LOS CABOS - Orkaan Jimena is in de nacht van maandag op dinsdag aangezwollen tot een storm van categorie vijf, de zwaarste schaal om de kracht van orkanen te meten. Dat heeft het Amerikaanse orkanencentrum in Miami gemeld.

Jimena is met windsnelheden van 250 kilometer per uur op weg naar Mexico, maar zal naar verwachting niet meer zo sterk zijn als de storm dinsdagavond aan land komt. Dat gebeurt vermoedelijk in Baja California.
Toeristen in dat gebied besluiten veelvuldig hun vakantie vroegtijdig af te breken. De vakantiegangers vrezen dagen vast te zullen zitten zodra de orkaan aan land komt. De autoriteiten hebben de inwoners van het gebied opgeroepen zich zo goed mogelijk voor te bereiden op de komst van Jimena. Tienduizend mensen zijn geëvacueerd.

Overstromingen

Er wordt naast de stevige wind ook veel regen voorspeld. Door de droogte van de afgelopen tijd kan de grond de regenval waarschijnlijk niet aan, waardoor ook gewaarschuwd wordt voor overstromingen.
De haven van Cabo San Lucas is uit voorzorg gesloten, hoewel de orkaan daar waarschijnlijk niet overheen zal razen. Ook is een top van de de Organisatie voor Economische Samenwerking en Ontwikkeling (OECD) verplaatst van Los Cabos naar Mexico-Stad.

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Op dinsdag 1 september 2009 15:34 schreef Tokamak het volgende:
El Niño was ongunstig voor orkanen toch ?