Hurricane Season 2009

quote:

As far as the tropics go- we will end July without any issues what so ever. All is quiet and should remain that way for another week to perhaps 10 days. After the first week of August, I see a pattern change in the upper level wind flow that could allow for organized deep convection to begin flaring up in the Atlantic Basin. The tropical waves over Africa are strong and robust but the atmosphere over the eastern Atlantic has not been favorable to allow them to develop. There are signs in the longer range modeling that suggest this will change for a time beginning close to mid-August. For now, no problems exist in either the Atlantic or the east Pacific- so far so good.

quote:

TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES LIKELY TO BE SCARCE FOR A WHILE

From the looks of things, we will not see any tropical storms or hurricanes anytime soon. The pattern is still simply not conducive for any significant development. We are seeing quite a robust line of tropical waves emerge from the coast of Africa but hostile upper level winds and other factors are keeping them in check and not allowing them to grow and develop. I see nothing in the long range computer models to suggest a change anytime soon. After about August 10 or so, there may be a period of more favorable conditions but this remains to be seen

quote:

Op maandag 3 augustus 2009 23:01 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Het is druk op de kaart

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE AS PATTERN READIES FOR DEVELOPMENT

Things are changing. The east Pacific is getting quite active and the reasons for it are coming east with time. Right now we have TS Enrique and TD 8-E in the waters well off the coast of Mexico- neither system poses an immediate threat to land. What it appears to indicate however, is that a more favorable pattern is migrating west to east and should be in the Atlantic Basin within the next few days. We are already seeing a very impressive tropical wave far out in the east Atlantic that has the NHC calling for a low chance of development. Some of the computer models pop in and out with latching on to this feature as it moves steadily west. Water temps are certainly warm enough but upper level conditions and even the moisture content of the atmosphere may limit development for a while longer. None the less, as we progress through the next week to 10 days, I expect that we will see a gradual increase in the chances of getting a named storm somewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

quote:

NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image that showed a huge cyclone named Morakot tracking through the East China Sea, on the way to a landfall in mainland China. Morakot is a large storm with maximum sustained winds near 69 mph (60 knots), just 5 mph shy of a category one hurricane strength. It's currently located in the East China Sea, near 23.2 north and 130.4 east. That's about 300 miles southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Its moving west near 14 mph. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder is an instrument used in tropical storm research that flies on Aqua. AIRS provides visible, infrared and microwave images of tropical storms. AIRS also measures cloud top temperature and pressure and the profile of water vapor as functions of height. Infrared imagery shows the temperature of the cloud tops which gives a hint about the power of the thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone. The colder the clouds are, the higher they are, and the more powerful the thunderstorms are that make up the cyclone. Morakot will keep moving westward, and it will remain in warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the next 72 hours, which will enable it to maintain its strength. Morakot's forecast track takes the center north of Taiwan and predicts a landfall almost directly between Hong Kong and Shanghai on August 6.