Hurricane Season 2009

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As far as the tropics go- we will end July without any issues what so ever. All is quiet and should remain that way for another week to perhaps 10 days. After the first week of August, I see a pattern change in the upper level wind flow that could allow for organized deep convection to begin flaring up in the Atlantic Basin. The tropical waves over Africa are strong and robust but the atmosphere over the eastern Atlantic has not been favorable to allow them to develop. There are signs in the longer range modeling that suggest this will change for a time beginning close to mid-August. For now, no problems exist in either the Atlantic or the east Pacific- so far so good.

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TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES LIKELY TO BE SCARCE FOR A WHILE

From the looks of things, we will not see any tropical storms or hurricanes anytime soon. The pattern is still simply not conducive for any significant development. We are seeing quite a robust line of tropical waves emerge from the coast of Africa but hostile upper level winds and other factors are keeping them in check and not allowing them to grow and develop. I see nothing in the long range computer models to suggest a change anytime soon. After about August 10 or so, there may be a period of more favorable conditions but this remains to be seen

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Op maandag 3 augustus 2009 23:01 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Het is druk op de kaart

[ afbeelding ]

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DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE AS PATTERN READIES FOR DEVELOPMENT

Things are changing. The east Pacific is getting quite active and the reasons for it are coming east with time. Right now we have TS Enrique and TD 8-E in the waters well off the coast of Mexico- neither system poses an immediate threat to land. What it appears to indicate however, is that a more favorable pattern is migrating west to east and should be in the Atlantic Basin within the next few days. We are already seeing a very impressive tropical wave far out in the east Atlantic that has the NHC calling for a low chance of development. Some of the computer models pop in and out with latching on to this feature as it moves steadily west. Water temps are certainly warm enough but upper level conditions and even the moisture content of the atmosphere may limit development for a while longer. None the less, as we progress through the next week to 10 days, I expect that we will see a gradual increase in the chances of getting a named storm somewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

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NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image that showed a huge cyclone named Morakot tracking through the East China Sea, on the way to a landfall in mainland China. Morakot is a large storm with maximum sustained winds near 69 mph (60 knots), just 5 mph shy of a category one hurricane strength. It's currently located in the East China Sea, near 23.2 north and 130.4 east. That's about 300 miles southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Its moving west near 14 mph. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder is an instrument used in tropical storm research that flies on Aqua. AIRS provides visible, infrared and microwave images of tropical storms. AIRS also measures cloud top temperature and pressure and the profile of water vapor as functions of height. Infrared imagery shows the temperature of the cloud tops which gives a hint about the power of the thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone. The colder the clouds are, the higher they are, and the more powerful the thunderstorms are that make up the cyclone. Morakot will keep moving westward, and it will remain in warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the next 72 hours, which will enable it to maintain its strength. Morakot's forecast track takes the center north of Taiwan and predicts a landfall almost directly between Hong Kong and Shanghai on August 6.

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A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY AS WE GET DEEPER IN TO AUGUST

Even though it has been a very quiet hurricane season for the Atlantic, things are about to change and in a hurry. First up however, is TS Felicia in the Pacific. The good news, and it really is considering how strong Felicia was recently, is that the storm is on its way down in terms of overall impacts to Hawaii. The latest forecast track from the CPHC shows Felicia passing to the north of the Big Island with the storm quickly fading while it does so. Effects should be quite minimal with the exception of increased seas along the north facing beaches. Not sure if they are filming LOST out there now or not (huge fan here), but it could make for some incredible sunsets coming up. Other than that, Hawaii will not sustain any serious negative impacts from Felicia.

In the Atlantic, the pattern change to a more favorable environment seems to be well on its way. We have what looks to be a developing depression way out near the Cape Verde Islands and even more energy lining up over Africa. These next two weeks or so could very well be the most active part of the hurricane season if forecasts for a hostile peak in September hold true. The long range computer models are latching on and developing multiple systems over the next several days. This is all very much expected and is by no means a surpise- even in the face of such a slow start to the season. There is absolutely nothing to be alarmed about right now. The season is coming to life and people all along the coastal areas of the U.S. and adjacent land masses should simply pay attention and be ready to act if one of these potential developments poses a problem down the road. It's all about being aware. We are very busy these days and life moves fast. The tropics can change just as fast but still give us plenty of warning. So far, we are looking really good this season- the hope is that it continues. But hope alone will not prepare people for what may lie ahead.

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UPDATED: 8:10 pm EDT, August 10, 2009

I do not have much in the way of new information tonight since nothing dramatic has really taken place since this morning. In the Pacific, Felicia is still winding down and should pass through Hawaii without much fanfare. In fact, the storm is basically just a swirl of low clouds with sparse convection at best.

In the Atlantic, we'll be watching 99L way out near the Cape Verde Islands for slow development. It could take a while and of course, there is no guarantee it will ever really get cranking. However, its energy will remain in tact even though it may not become a tropical cylcone right away. We must always watch these kinds of features as the progresses steadily westward. Elsewhere, tropical waves at around 47 west and 62 west also bear close monitoring as they too try and organize slowly. The pattern is becoming more and more favorable for us to see perhaps several named storms over the coming two to three weeks. Nothing out there just yet but it's getting close.

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Op dinsdag 11 augustus 2009 18:08 schreef Vogue het volgende:
TVP.... Blijft een boeiende topicreeks dit

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Op dinsdag 11 augustus 2009 18:08 schreef Vogue het volgende:
TVP.... Blijft een boeiende topicreeks dit

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UPDATED: 9:15 am EDT, August 12, 2009
TROPICS GOING TO BE BIG NEWS OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS

It is time to pay closer attention to the Atlantic Basin and its growing areas of concern. I say concern because it is time to take notice of what is going on out there and be prepared for it. I am not talking about just the United States either- remember, we have quite a few land masses out there in the Basin. Here's what we have...

TD2 should become a tropical storm later today if it is not one already. It is not of much concern right now and should avoid the Lesser Antilles as it moves west over the next five days. Beyond that time period, we will just have to see if it survives a trip through some stronger upper level winds before worrying where it ends up. There's plenty of time to monitor its progress and thus far, it looks to remain fairly weak.

The other developing story will be a new tropical cyclone taking shape right now off the coast of Africa. The GFS computer model in particular has been remarkably consistent with its forecast of a long-track system in the Atlantic. The tropical wave that would be "the one" is now off the coast of western Africa and is already looking better organized as each hour passes. It should become a tropical depression within the next two days and rapidly strengthen beyond that. My first concern is for the Lesser Antilles. From the looks of the steering patterns, an almost due-west track seems likely for this system once it gets going. This would put it in the vicinity of the Windwards and Leewards in about a week- maybe less. I figured people would want as much notice as possible just in case the computer modeling is even close to spot on. Run after run after run of the GFS shows this system plowing through the eastern Caribbean. Perhaps the model will be wrong, but it did a similar job of accurately forecasting the genesis and track of powerful hurricane Dean in 2007. So if you live in or are planning a trip to the Lesser Antilles and surrounding region, pay close attention to the tropics from now on. We have the luxury of seeing the possible future with computer guidance and related technology, there should be no suprises in this day and age.

Lastly, a tropical wave crossing the Antilles now should continue generally WNW and in to the Gulf of Mexico early next week. We'll see if it blossoms and develops more. This is where model guidance is tough because some show development, others do not. It is a feature to watch until it interacts with land and dies away. Its passage through the Caribbean will bring sporadic showers and thunderstorms but otherwise not much more than that.

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Op donderdag 13 augustus 2009 14:22 schreef Party_P het volgende:

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Volgende week woensdag zit die bij domicaanse republiek/cuba als het zo doorgaat....laat ik nou net volgende week woensdag een tussenlanding hebben op cuba, haha

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Op donderdag 13 augustus 2009 21:42 schreef Party_P het volgende:

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Nja hij kan aan kracht winnen

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Op donderdag 13 augustus 2009 21:42 schreef Party_P het volgende:

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Nja hij kan aan kracht winnen

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 10:56 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
De golf van Mexico is al aardig opgewarmd naar een dikke 30-32 graden