Hurricane Season 2009

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Op zaterdag 15 augustus 2009 18:00 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
En de tweede is er nu ook zo te zien word dat een cat2
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ANA, BILL AND 91L ALL KEEPING US PLENTY BUSY

There is quite a lot going on tonight as the tropics have sprung to life in grand fashion. We have TS Ana, TS Bill and now 91L in the eastern Gulf of Mexico- plus a new tropical wave off of Africa that could develop over the next few days.

First, let's discuss the system in the Gulf. It is in association with a tropical wave that we have tracked for the last week or so. It is now trying to flare up in a small area just to the west of Florida. Tampa radar can clearly see a counter-clockwise spin to the feature out over the open Gulf. Hopefully it will move inland later tomorrow or Monday before much more organization can take place. But, let's remember Humberto two years ago off the Texas coast. It was small and was able to ramp up very quickly. Do not be suprised to see this do something similar- perhaps not that dramatic but there is a chance that this becomes a tropical depression or even a tropical storm before reaching the coast along the Florida Panhandle or nearby. We'll watch it closely and people visiting/living in the area need to be ready for a quick change to the weather as this system comes rolling in. It will have squally weather with gusty winds and rough seas. It will be interesting to see what the NHC says about it tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, Ana is struggling to keep its existence going against dry air and a fairly quick forward pace. Odds favor this one falling short of its potential which is great news for areas to its west. This is not say that nothing will happen but the intensity forecast is looking better with each update. Still, people in the northern Leewards through Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should pay close attention to the future progress of Ana. Remember- rain fall can be deadly if too much falls too soon or over terrain that cannot handle it.

Bill continues to demonstrate to us that it will become a powerful hurricane over the next few days. It is large and steadily getting better organized over the deep tropical Atlantic. The latest forecast suggests more good news for the islands of the NE Caribbean as Bill should pass by to the north and east. The models are trending towards a more northwesterly course towards the five day time period. How much so and then what happens after that remains to be seen. Obviously, we will keep up with the latest model runs to see what guidance they can provide.

Farther east and off the west coast of Africa we are monitoring another tropical wave with potential for development as it too moves west. Things will be quite busy over the next several days with a lot of information coming out of many sources.

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Op maandag 17 augustus 2009 17:07 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Wel jammer dat Bill afbuigt naar het noordwesten...

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UPDATED: 10:55 pm EDT, August 17, 2009
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BILL

This will be kind of short since there are no earth-shattering changes in the forecast for Bill. Top winds are now 100 mph and are expected to easily go higher and make Bill a solid category three hurricane. It is interesting too that the NHC mentions the fact that computer models suggest that Bill will grow in size as well- covering more ocean. That should be amazing to see- hopefully not at the expense of it hitting land somewhere.

So what about that? Where is Bill headed? The NHC continues to project a track more to the north over time as a break in the large ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic allows Bill to slip in- like water finding its way in to a crack in a large rock. From there, it is possible that Bill could turn east of north and never affect land or it could turn too late and clip Bermuda, the East Coast of the U.S. and/or the Canadian Maritimes. None of the models are really reliable enough to project that far in to the future to determine where Bill will end up. I will say this, if it makes it past 70 west longitude, then it would have to turn east of north to miss the East Coast of the U.S.- right now, the 5 day plot is 68.5 or 1.5 degrees east of that essential spot (in my mind). So as you can see, every degree west that this thing tracks is critical down the road. Folks in Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast and particularly the Canadian Maritimes should stay on top of this. I am sure you would even without me saying so- but this is an August hurricane with potential to deal quite a punch should it hit land.

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Op dinsdag 18 augustus 2009 11:19 schreef kidkash19 het volgende:
Mooie site

www.stormpulse.com

Leuk ook dat als je het tabje clouds aanzet je precies alle wolken ziet opgelijnd vanaf Egypte tot Florida

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UPDATED: 10:30 am EDT, August 18, 2009
FORECAST FOR BILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE U.S. BUT NOT SO MUCH PERHAPS FOR BERMUDA- REMNANTS OF ANA KICKING BACK TO LIFE AS WELL

Things are looking better and better in regards to hurricnae Bill and its possible impact on the United States. The forecast models are showing a high probability that Bill will turn north and then northeast away from the East Coast later in the week. It should also miss the Lesser Antilles as well but will bring increased surf there. Speaking of surf, this should be a surfer's dream come true for the East Coast as Bill is likely to pass between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras. More on that in a day or two. The real threat appears to be to the island of Bermuda and people there need to obviously keep a close eye on the future progress of Bill. It is forecast to be a major hurricane and a large one at that. Once past Bermuda, we'll have to see how close it cuts to the Canadian Maritimes. But unless something unexpected happens, I see no way for Bill to get over to 70 degrees west or more and affect the U.S. East Coast.

We are also watching the remnants of Ana as they pass over and around Cuba and the Bahamas today. There is a considerable flare up of convection and once in to the SE Gulf, this could have a chance to come back. Remember how quickly Claudette ramped up- let that be a guide to what could happen with former Ana if conditions favor. Either way, squally weather is on the way to south Florida and the Keys as this wave passes through en route to the Gulf of Mexico.

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Op woensdag 19 augustus 2009 07:02 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Het gaat hard met Bill! Nu al cat.2. Cat. 5 is niet ondenkbaar met 10% binnen 48 uur. Heftig!

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BILL NOW UP TO 140 MPH- A CATEGORY FOUR - WITH ROOM TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING BUT WILL IT HIT LAND?

Bill has ramped up its intensity since yesterday and is now a sold category four hurricane. Top winds are near 140 mph and are forecast to reach a little higher. It will not be until Bill interacts with an upper level trough and cooler sea surface temps that it will begin to weaken. For now, it will continue to generate enormous waves and send them out across the Atlantic.

Obviously everyone wants to know where Bill is headed. For now, it looks very promising that it will not directly impact the Lesser Antilles as it should move past their latitude later today. Bermuda is seemingly next in line to have to potentially deal with Bill but the latest track models have shifted west even more- taking Bill WEST of Bermuda and closer to the NC Outer Banks.

One of the models, the UKMET, puts Bill at 70.7W and 32.8N over the weekend as the hurricane feels the effects of a rather deep low pressure area carved out in the upper atmosphere. This will more than likely turn Bill north and then northeast. The big issue is when this happens and how sharp a turn away from the coast Bill will have.

Other models are out near 68W and keep the hurricane far enough off New England to spare them a direct hit. However, Bill will likely grow in size and could still bring strong winds and dangerous seas to the Northeast and the Canadian Maritimes. I would be most concerned about Nova Scotia and Newfoundland right now but Cape Cod and vicinity is within the 5-day cone of uncertainty. It is still possible for Bill to adversely affect New England or even points south. The key will be the next 48 hours and how far west Bill gets before it stops gaining longitude. If it gets back as far as 72 or 73 west at 35 north, then we are in for some major problems along the U.S. coast. As it stands now, the odds still favor a good miss but those odds are dwindling just a little with each passing day.

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Op woensdag 19 augustus 2009 15:28 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

[..]

Ik lees overal tussen een 6 meter en 12 meter