De dag dat de dollar viel #02 : Groei Amerikaanse economie valt bijna stil

quote:

Op donderdag 14 juni 2007 13:31 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Dit ben ik allemaal met je eens.
Maar het punt dat ik wilde maken is dat beide mensen dezelfde bezittingen en schulden hebben en beiden even kredietwaardig zijn. Toch zullen de meeste mensen vinden dat persoon B onverantwoord bezig is en dat hij een hoge schuld heeft terwijl het gedrag van persoon A normaal wordt gevonden.

quote:

Op dinsdag 5 juni 2007 16:28 schreef NLweltmeister het volgende:
ik zie eerder de Euro 'vallen' dan de dollar.
De dollar heeft al meerdere crisis overleeft, terwijl er nu in Europa mensen wonen die al aan hun 5e munt bezig zijn, bv in de DDR

quote:

Op dinsdag 5 juni 2007 17:41 schreef gronk het volgende:
Ja, da's wel een leuke: de amerikanen staan al met hun rug tegen de muur. Nog verder liberaliseren kan gewoon niet. In europa kun je nog zat winst halen met liberalisering, als je maar wilt (of gedwongen wordt, door de omstandigheden).

Eat that, zwartkijkers.

quote:

Op donderdag 14 juni 2007 17:14 schreef Xenwolfie het volgende:

[..]

Bedoel je daarmee de munten die mensen in hun hele leven hebben gehad? Dus een 100 jarige man in de DDR heeft met Papiermark, Reichmark, Mark der DDR, Mark en nu de Euro betaald?

quote:

Bear Stearns, Creditors May Help Save Hedge Fund (Update2)
By Jody Shenn

June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos., the biggest broker for U.S. hedge funds, offered to provide $1.5 billion in loans to help rescue a money-losing fund run by its asset-management unit, a person familiar with the situation said.

The plan calls for New York-based Bear Stearns to provide the money only if some of the hedge fund's creditors, which include Merrill Lynch & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., inject $500 million of cash into the fund, said the person, who declined to be named because the negotiations aren't public.

Bear Stearns, seeking to stave off liquidation of the fund, made the commitment yesterday in a meeting with creditors after losses forced the sale of $4 billion of mortgage bonds last week. Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan had planned to sell another $800 million of bonds of so-called collateralized debt obligations owned by the fund this week, the person said. The fund's potential closure sparked concern about wider losses in the market for subprime-mortgage bonds and CDOs.

``It's tough to tell whether this was an isolated event or whether there will be other funds like this that have bought this type of paper and are facing mark downs or redemptions,'' said Peter Nolan, a product portfolio manager who runs the CDO business at Chapel Hill, North Carolina-based Smith Breeden Associates Inc. The firm manages about $34 billion in fixed- income assets, about a third of which are asset-backed bonds.

Bear Stearns spokesman Russell Sherman didn't immediately return calls seeking comment. Jessica Oppenheim, a spokeswoman for New York-based Merrill Lynch, declined to comment, as did Brian Marchiony, a spokesman for New York-based JPMorgan.

`Ripple Effect'

The banks may be considering a bailout because asset sales could force them to revalue their own investments and those of other funds they lend to, said Josh Rosner, managing director at New York-based investment-research firm Graham Fisher & Co.

``The value that assets are being carried at may well be proved to be far above'' what they're really worth, Rosner said.
The bailout is reminiscent of that of Long-Term Capital Management LP in 1998, which lost $4.6 billion, Rosner said. At the time, lenders met and agreed to take a 90 percent stake in the Greenwich-based fund and slowly liquidated the assets to limit the impact of its collapse.

An ``unraveling'' of the Bear Stearns fund ``threatens to have a ripple effect on valuations,'' Kathy Shanley, a senior analyst in Chicago at Gimme Credit LLC, an independent corporate- bond researcher, said in a report today.

Halted Redemptions

The 10-month-old fund, known as the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund and run by Bear Stearns senior managing director Ralph Cioffi, began with about $600 million in investors' money. It halted redemptions after investors sought to withdraw $300 million by June 30.

The fund has lost about 20 percent this year, while a sister fund that uses less borrowed money is down a smaller amount. Blackstone Group LP, based in New York, helped prepare the rescue plan, the New York Post reported today.

The fund had borrowed at least $6 billion. Other lenders include London-based Barclays PLC, which would invest about $250 million under the plan proposed yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported today. New York-based Citigroup Inc. is leading a committee of creditors that may supply another $250 million, the Journal said, citing people it didn't identify.

UBS Shutdown

UBS AG, Switzerland's biggest bank, shut down its Dillon Read Capital Management LLC hedge fund unit last month, after losses executives linked to turmoil in the mortgage-bond market, where delinquencies and defaults on so-called subprime loans, or ones to bad-credit borrowers, are at the highest since 1997.
The Bear Stearns fund's positions that were to be sold this week included bonds from a variety of CDO types, including securities mostly backed by subprime-mortgage bonds, buyout loans and other CDOs, according to offering documents.

Bank of America Corp. this week is also offering some other CDO securities on behalf of the Bear Stearns fund as part of a previously planned sale, the person said. Louise Hennessy, a spokeswoman for the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank, Danielle Romero-Apsilos, a Citigroup spokeswoman, and Tom Vogel, a Barclays spokesman, all declined to comment.

CDOs are investment vehicles that repackage loans, derivatives and bonds into new securities, providing managers with ongoing fees and underwriting revenue to banks. Some of that new debt gets higher credit rating than the underlying assets and some offers potentially greater return.

Hedge funds are private, largely unregulated pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in any gains on the money invested.

Weakening Demand?

The record pace at which CDOs are being created may be obscuring weakening investor demand, Pamela Brill, a portfolio manager at Allstate Investments LLC, said at a June 6 conference in New York.

``We've heard that there's decent amount of overhang of securities left over, that they've securitized but haven't been able to sell, and they're still holding a couple of months after the fact,'' said Brill, whose unit of Northbrook, Illinois-based insurer Allstate Corp. owns about $2 billion in CDO securities.

quote:

Op woensdag 8 augustus 2007 21:23 schreef Lennart22 het volgende:

En zijn er wel dingen die hun waarde werkelijk houden?

quote:

Op woensdag 8 augustus 2007 21:23 schreef Lennart22 het volgende:
Maargoed, hier verder dan maar aangezien het andere topic dicht moest!
Als de dollar crasht wat dan?
* Gelf op de bank laten staan of opnemen?

quote:

* Wat kan je het beste inslaan? Ik zat zelf te denken aan brandstof(benzine,diesel)

quote:

* Wie kan je vertrouwen qua berichtgeving voor en na de crash? De overheid?

quote:

* Hoe kan de gewonen burger dit zien aankomen aangezien ik de overheid daarvoor niet vertrouw.

quote:

En zijn er wel dingen die hun waarde werkelijk houden?

quote:

Op woensdag 8 augustus 2007 21:35 schreef Ringo het volgende:

[..]

Opnemen natuurlijk. Dat doet namelijk iederéén op zo'n moment, waardoor de banken het geld niet kunnen aanslepen. Binnen 3 weken staan alle pinautomaten leeg.
[..]

quote:

Op woensdag 8 augustus 2007 21:23 schreef Lennart22 het volgende:
Maargoed, hier verder dan maar aangezien het andere topic dicht moest!
Als de dollar crasht wat dan?
* Gelf op de bank laten staan of opnemen?
* Wat kan je het beste inslaan? Ik zat zelf te denken aan brandstof(benzine,diesel)
* Wie kan je vertrouwen qua berichtgeving voor en na de crash? De overheid?
* Hoe kan de gewonen burger dit zien aankomen aangezien ik de overheid daarvoor niet vertrouw.

En zijn er wel dingen die hun waarde werkelijk houden?

quote:

Op donderdag 31 mei 2007 17:43 schreef digitaLL het volgende:

[..]

De VS heeft veel van zijn grondstoffen uitgeput zoals olie, gas en goud en heeft de Hubbart piek daarin reeds jaren achter zich liggen. Het gas komt uit Canada, en tussen de 60 en 70% van de olie wordt nu geimporteerd.
Qua technologie wordt al steeds meer geoutsourced naar India en China. De echte doorbraken van de laatste tijd kwamen niet uit de VS nog de CD-speler, nog de DVD nog de uitvinding van de krachige blauwe led in de HDDVD en Blu-Ray spelers. Qua vliegtuigen heeft het in europa een stevige high tech concurrent Air Bus. Gister heeft Quatar voor $ 80 miljard aan airbussen besteld. In de autoindustrie leggen ze het nu helemaal af tegen Europa en Japan.
En dan de platte beeldschermen die vooral uit azie komen.

quote:

Op donderdag 9 augustus 2007 10:41 schreef Evil_Jur het volgende:

[..]


De aanpak van de Grote Depressie en hoe de VS daarna terugkwam vind ik nog steeds een relevant voorbeeld van hoeveel de Amerikaanse economie kan hebben.

Dat doemdenken is te vroeg. Een depressie en een moeilijkere tijd is goed mogelijk, maar het einde van de VS en de wereld zoals we die kennen voorspellen is niet meer dan sensatiebelustheid.

quote:

[b]ECB Offers Unlimited Cash as Bank Lending Costs Soar (Update3) [b]


Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank loaned an unprecedented 94.8 billion euros ($130.2 billion) after demand for cash in the European money markets drove interest rates higher.

The overnight rates banks charge each other to lend in dollars jumped to the highest in six years. The so-called dollar London interbank offered rate rose to 5.86 percent today from 5.35 percent and in euros gained to 4.31 percent from 4.11 percent.

The ECB's response to the fastest increase in the dollar bank rate since June 2004 signals that lenders are reducing the supply of money as losses triggered by the U.S. mortgage slump spread worldwide. BNP Paribas SA halted withdrawals from three investment funds today and Dutch investment bank NIBC Holding NV said it had lost at least 137 million euros on subprime investments, reversing evidence yesterday that credit markets were stabilizing.

``Liquidity in the market has completely dried up as investors aren't recycling their money back because of subprime concerns,'' said Saher Bin Jung, a trader on the commercial paper desk at Commerzbank AG. ``Levels have shot up dramatically since yesterday as issuers are trying to entice investors back.''

The ECB said today it provided the largest amount ever in a single so-called ``fine-tuning'' operation, exceeding the 69.3 billion euros provided on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after the terror attacks on New York.

Stocks, Treasuries

The announcement added to investor nervousness, pushing Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index down 1.9 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in September lost 20.9 to 1,483.0. U.S. Treasury notes gained for the first time in four days as investors sought the safest assets, cutting yields on two-year notes by 16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point, to 4.50 percent.

BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, stopped investors withdrawing from funds with 2 billion euros of assets because it couldn't ``fairly'' value their holdings after concern over U.S. subprime mortgage losses roiled credit markets.

Three-month dollar Libor rose to 5.5 percent from 5.38 percent.

Federal Reserve spokesman David Skidmore declined to comment on the increases in overnight money-market rates.

quote:

Op donderdag 9 augustus 2007 15:46 schreef gronk het volgende:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCWlglzLiJNo&refer=home
[..]

quote:

Op donderdag 9 augustus 2007 17:30 schreef Falco het volgende:
Spannend, kan ik over anderhalve week nog op vakantie naar NY ? Dr is al geboekt...

quote:

Op donderdag 9 augustus 2007 17:23 schreef pberends het volgende:
China dreigt Amerikaanse obligatiemarkt te overspoelen

Ja, here we go!