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Op maandag 6 september 2010 11:26 schreef aloa het volgende:
Kaartje voor komende zaterdag.
Dit lijkt dan Igor te gaan worden.

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Op maandag 6 september 2010 13:40 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Tropische storm Hermine ontstaan

Een tropische depressie in het zuidwestelijk gedeelte van de Golf van Mexico is maandag ochtend uitgegroeid tot een tropische storm. De tropische storm is de achtste van het orkaanseizoen van 2010 en heeft de naam Hermine gekregen. Hermine koerst naar de kust van Mexico en de Verenigde Staten en heeft momenteel windsnelheden van 65 kilometer per uur. De tropische storm lag maandagochtend ongeveer 375 kilometer ten zuidoosten van La Pesca, Mexico. De storm verplaatst zich noordwaarts met een snelheid van 13 kilometer per uur. Na alle verwachtingen zal Hermine dinsdagochtend aan land gaan ter hoogte van de noordoost hoek van Mexico of zuidelijke punt van Texas.


Bron: NASA - Hier een satellietopname van de tropische storm Hermine

Volgens het National Hurricane Center kan Hermine in het noordoosten van Mexico en in het zuidwesten van Texas grote hoeveelheden neerslag achter gaan laten die op kunnen lopen tot 200mm, in de afgelegen gebieden kan er zelfs een hoeveelheid van 300mm aan neerslag gaan vallen. Deze hoeveelheden regen kunnen levensbedreigende situaties tot het gevolg hebben. Overstromingen en modderlawines behoren tot de mogelijkheden in de hogere gelegen gebieden van noordoost Mexico. Momenteel is er een tropische storm waarschuwing van kracht voor de kust van Mexico van Tampico naar de Rio Grande en de kust van Zuid-Texas van de Rio Grande naar Baffin Bay.

Bron Weerdirect

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TS Hermine will gain strength before hitting Texas
TD 10 became much better organized over night in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and has now become TS Hermine. Top winds are now 45 mph and it is expected to strengthen further, reaching near 60 mph before landfall in northern Mexico. The overall system is large and is spreading rain to the Texas coast this morning. In addition, a tropical storm warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande river. This is the third tropical system to affect the same region this season in the wake of Alex and TD 2. Flooding is going to be a big problem, especially considering the size and overall moisture content of this storm. After landfall, the track shifts back to the east so that it looks as though a big rain event is in store for interior Texas all the way to the coast. Not everyone will receive heavy rain but it looks to be quite a wet week ahead. I will cover this in more detail on today's Weekly Hurricane Outlook video at 2pm ET.

Next storm coming
Off the coast of Africa awaits the next named storm. Conditions are favorable for development out that way as a strong surge of moisture has emerged with a tropical wave. The GFS model in particular, which has been pretty good at tropical storm prediction this season, develops a cyclone out near the Cape Verde Islands this week and moves it westward. Other global models indicate this as well and we are nearing the peak time of the hurricane season, so it makes sense to look at this area for development. .

Austin, Texas wordt letterlijk onder water gezet door TS Hermine

Hermine rain and flooding

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Major Flooding in Austin, Texas
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:

"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."



hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.

Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.

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Op woensdag 8 september 2010 22:51 schreef aloa het volgende:
Meteen achter Igor lijkt weer een volgend gebied te ontstaan. Waarschijnlijk gaat dat zaterdag/zondag uitgroeien tot tropische storm.

Zie OP voor kaartje.

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Op donderdag 9 september 2010 08:53 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

[..]

Geloof er niet zo enorm veel in dat het daadwerkelijk een systeem wordt, het zal voornamelijk opgevreten worden door Igor of anders samengevoegd worden

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Newly-formed Igor is currently a minimal tropical storm, but it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the upcoming days.
Tropical Storm Igor is churning less than 100 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has the latest statistics on Igor, including exactly how close the tropical storm is to the islands.
Despite its proximity, residents of the Cape Verde Islands can thank strong winds high in the atmosphere (also known as wind shear) for keeping Igor's impacts minimal on the Cape Verde Islands.
The winds are not only hindering Igor's ability to strengthen into a stronger tropical storm but are also keeping the heaviest rain and tropical storm-force winds west of Igor's center and away from the Cape Verde Islands.
It is possible that the strong wind shear even forces Igor to briefly weaken into a tropical depression at some point today.
A few of Igor's rain squalls could still graze the Cape Verde Islands today, especially the southern and western islands. Rough surf will make swimming and boating for small craft treacherous in the waters surrounding the islands.

Conditions will improve over the Cape Verde Islands on Friday as Igor departs and heads into the open waters of the Atlantic.
The environment over the Atlantic will become more conducive for Igor to intensify than when once-Tropical Storm Gaston passed through. Dry air was an inhibiting factor against Gaston's strengthening, but dry air does not lie in the path of Igor.
After Igor leaves the Cape Verde Islands, the strong wind shear should lessen. That reduction in wind shear, combined with the warm waters of the Atlantic, is why Igor is expected to become a hurricane this weekend.
Igor will not threaten any other land masses for at least a week. However, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center will be monitoring the possibility that Igor either takes aim at the Lesser Antilles later next week or gets turned northward by a cold front set to emerge from the East Coast of the United States.

Julia on the Horizon?
Igor may not be the only organized tropical system churning in the Atlantic when this weekend comes to an end.
Current models are hinting that the next strong tropical wave to emerge off the coast of Africa will rapidly strengthen into a named system this weekend, potentially prior to grazing the Cape Verde Islands.
The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin would acquire the name "Julia."

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Op donderdag 9 september 2010 09:38 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Nee idd dat gaat niks worden. In het weekend lijkt er weer een nieuwe storm te komen bij de kust van Afrika.

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Op zaterdag 11 september 2010 14:15 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ben benieuwd wat Igor gaat doen.
Er zit wel hogedruk, waardoor deze misschien een zuidelijke koers blijft houden.

[ afbeelding ]

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Vooral Bermuda moet hem in het oog gaan houden volgens GFS. In deze run mist Igor Bermuda op nog geen 50 km...






EC is westelijker, maar voorlopig nog geen echte bedreiging voor de Oostkust.



Hij heeft zelfs al een klein oogje

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Op zondag 12 september 2010 14:31 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Van Weerwoord:
[..]

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Hurricane Igor is living up to its name after rapidly intensifying into a monster Category 4 hurricane Sunday afternoon. The storm could easily become the strongest hurricane of the season thus far.
While Igor fortunately poses no threat to land over the next few days, people in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and along the East Coast of the U.S. should be keeping track of this storm for potential impacts next weekend and beyond.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that Igor's maximum sustained winds were estimated to have increased to 140 mph late Sunday afternoon as the storm headed westward over the south-central Atlantic.
While minor fluctuations in intensity can occur, Igor is generally expected to remain a Category 4 hurricane throughout this upcoming week and could even reach Category 5 status for a time.
Fortunately, the storm is expected to remain out to sea through the end of the week, steering clear of the Leeward Islands as it tracks to the west-northwest. Thereafter, computer models all show Igor making a turn more toward the north over the western Atlantic but differ on how soon that will happen.



Igor's track over warm waters and through weak wind shear (strong winds high up in the atmosphere) should allow the storm to remain a major hurricane throughout the week.
Many of the models are indicating that this northward turn will happen before this upcoming weekend and direct Igor right toward Bermuda.
While this is the more likely scenario, there are still some models hinting that the storm may wait a bit longer to curve northward, passing west of Bermuda and drawing closer to the East Coast of the U.S.
Either scenario could bring Igor dangerously close to Newfoundland and perhaps also Nova Scotia.
The bottom line is that people living in or traveling to Bermuda, Atlantic Canada or the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend or early next week should pay close attention to Igor. At the very least, rough surf and potentially deadly rip currents will be a major concern.
So far this season, Earl has been the strongest hurricane, topping out at Category 4 status with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Igor will not have to intensify much further to take Earl's spot at the top.
For more details on the current position, strength and movement of Igor, check out the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.

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Op zondag 12 september 2010 21:54 schreef Fredo55 het volgende:
Hoe groot is de kans dat Igor een categorie 5 word?

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Monster Igor heads for Bermuda
Hurricane Igor is going to boost the ACE index big time. That is the number used to measure the true output of energy from tropical cyclones in a season. The higher the wind speed and the longer those winds stay high, the more energy is output and the higher the ACE value. Igor may take us above 100 if it stays powerful long enough. The good news is that, so far, it is doing its job of bleeding off built-up heat in the tropics without affecting land. Will it remain that way for its entire life-span? Probably so but there are a couple of "what ifs" that need to be looked at.

The NHC track takes Igor on a path that aims it right at the North Carolina coast if nothing changed and it went on a straight line from the five day position forward. But we know this is not the case. Weather is dynamic. Igor may not even get to that forecast point- it could be well east or well west (south too). The big key is once again how much high pressure is to the north of Igor as it continues west. The stronger and firmer the high is, the more west Igor travels. And then comes the critical turn to the northwest. Will it happen? If so, to what degree? It may not be enough to get Igor far enough north to allow it to eventually turn out to sea. We are still talking over a week away. That's 168 hours! So much can change that will affect the outcome of Igor's ulitmate track. I would suggest that folks with interests in Bermuda keep a really close watch on Igor since it is already a powerful hurricane and likely to become a category five before all is said and done. One thing is for sure- the waves from Igor will pound the East Coast, Puerto Rico, Bermuda and eventually the Canadian Maritimes much like hurricane Bill did last year. Surfers will have another shot at some excellent swells coming for the coast. Swimmers will need to be extra careful in the latter part of next week.

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Op maandag 13 september 2010 14:08 schreef _Flea_ het volgende:
Je word er gewoon bang van als je dit ziet.

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Op maandag 13 september 2010 17:09 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

[..]

Laura niet in haar ééntje op haar zeilbootje

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Op maandag 13 september 2010 19:07 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
ze had ook gewoon twee maand later kunnen vertrekken en dus nog twee maand naar school gekunt, de bitch

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Op dinsdag 14 september 2010 14:55 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Ze schatten nu nog een CAT2 over Bermuda maar wat als er een CAT4 of 5 overheen gaat :|

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Why are the hurricanes not reaching us?
So why are all of these powerful hurricanes not hitting the U.S.? It's simple. The pattern is not one that allows them to. We are lacking a stronger Bermuda High that would normally receive the hand off of westward moving hurricanes from the Azores High. Instead, there is a gaping hole in the western Atlantic steering pattern that allows these hurricanes to slip through like a helium balloon floating up, up and away. This path of curvature out to sea just happens to be far enough off the East Coast to keep cities like Miami, Charleston, Wilmington, New York and Boston all hurricane-free. Will the pattern change? It might, but time is running out for major hurricanes to impact the East Coast without them suffering from shearing winds and gradually cooling sea surface temps. The focus is going to begin to shift, in about 10 days, to the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea- very typical of a La Nina pattern. I will show in today's weekly Hurricane Outlook video broadcast what other major La Nina hurricane seasons looked like and how some are heavily weighted on the back end, meaning the last half had more impact than the first half or even the peak period of mid-September.

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IGOR POSES NO DIRECT THREAT TO U.S. BUT BERMUDA ON ALERT

Igor
Powerful hurricane Igor has begun to make the turn from its due west course. This has been anticipated and hoped for and is a sign that the hurricane will eventually move north and then northeast away from the United States. The only land mass in its path over the next week is Bermuda. The good news there is that Bermuda is a small island in a big ocean. It would take a precise direct hit to bring severe conditions to the island- not impossible to accomplish but tough none the less.

The only visible effect from Igor along the shores of the western Atlantic land masses will be large swells that have been, and continue to be, generated by the hurricane's wind field. These will arrive in the Caribbean islands soon and eventually along the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda by the weekend. Another great surfing period is coming up but people need to remember that rip currents and rough surf can be deadly for those not accustomed to such conditions.

Julia
Julia is now a hurricane and will turn north and on out to sea over the next several days- keeping the string of good luck going of no hurricane landfalls this season outside of Alex in late June.

Changes coming... activity will shift south and west
Beyond the exits of Igor and Julia in the next week or so, it looks as though we will see activity begin to shift south and west with time. Computer models are beginning to indicate the development of tropical cyclones in lower latitudes as the western Atlantic high pressure (Bermuda High) strengthens. While it is too soon to know where such development will occur, it should not be surprising to see a tropical storm or hurricane moving towards the Lesser Antilles within about 10 days. This is very typical of a La Nina pattern where the most active part of the season extends beyond the normal peak time of mid-September. For now, at least, we can track the hurricanes as they travel far away from land.

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Op dinsdag 14 september 2010 14:55 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Ze schatten nu nog een CAT2 over Bermuda maar wat als er een CAT4 of 5 overheen gaat :|

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Igor remains a monster Category 4 hurricane on a path that could take it dangerously close to Bermuda this weekend.
People living in or soon traveling to the island should pay close attention to this formidable storm and be ready to take appropriate action.
Through the end of the week, Igor will remain a powerful hurricane over the open waters of the Atlantic, passing well north of the Leeward Islands but still bringing increased waves and swells to the region.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has more details on the current location, strength and motion of the storm.
While minor fluctuations in strength will occur, Igor is generally expected to remain a Category 4 hurricane over the next day or two. As the storm starts moving over cooler waters and into stronger wind shear (strong winds high up in the atmosphere) toward the weekend, it should start to weaken.

Despite this weakening, Igor will still be a force to be reckoned with. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to be a Category 3 or strong Category 2 hurricane with it passing dangerously close to Bermuda Friday night into early Saturday.
Damaging winds, flooding rain, extremely rough surf and a storm surge could all become major problems for the island if Igor passes close enough.
This will be especially true if the eye tracks just to the west of Bermuda, putting the island in the right front quadrant of the storm, where winds are strongest and the storm surge is highest.

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Tientallen doden door Kompasu in NoordKorea
In Noord-Korea zijn tientallen mensen omgekomen bij de doortocht van tyfoon Kompasu, meldt het officiële Noord-Koreaanse agentschap KCNA. In Zuid-Korea kwamen al vijf mensen om sinds de tyfoon op 2 september aankwam op het schiereiland.
Volgens KCNA zijn meer dan 8.000 huizen en 230 overheidsgebouwen verwoest. Akkers, wegen, spoorwegen en elektriciteitslijnen werden zwaar toegetakeld. Volgens hulporganisaties zal het stormweer van dit jaar de chronische voedseltekorten in de regio verergeren.

Het Zuid-Koreaanse Rode Kruis kondigde eergisteren aan dat het Noord-Korea hulp wil sturen na de zware overstromingen in augustus. Na maanden van spanning lijken de relaties tussen Noord- en Zuid-Korea opnieuw enigszins te ontdooien

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Op woensdag 15 september 2010 11:50 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Komen nu pas berichten uit NK
[..]

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Karl doet het rustig aan
Tropische storm Karl is woensdagavond en in de nacht (lokale tijd) het Mexicaanse schiereiland Yucatan gepasseerd, zonder voor grote problemen te zorgen. Dat melden autoriteiten donderdag.

Er moesten enkele honderden mensen geëvacueerd worden door het slechte weer. Ook zaten tienduizenden mensen in vooral plattelandsgebieden zonder stroom door de storm.

Karl kwam met windsnelheden van 90 kilometer per uur aan land, maar verzwakte vrij snel. Meteorologen van het Amerikaanse Orkaancentrum (NHC) verwachten dat Karl, nu hij boven de Golf van Mexico is aangekomen, weer zal winnen aan kracht. Vrijdagavond (lokale tijd) zal Karl als een orkaan de oostkust van Mexico treffen, voorspelt het NHC. De overheid heeft een orkaanwaarschuwing uitgegeven voor dat gebied. Ook kijkt de Mexicaanse oliegigant Pemex met argusogen naar de ontwikkeling van Karl. In de baai van Campeche staan veel boorplatformen, die last kunnen hebben van de storm

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Op donderdag 16 september 2010 18:58 schreef aloa het volgende:
Karl is inmiddels in de golf en heeft orkaankracht bereikt.
Is zelfs op weg om een categorie 2 te worden.
Windsnelheid van 120 km/uur met windstoten tot 144 km/uur.
Kerndruk is 983 mb

[ afbeelding ]

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Op vrijdag 17 september 2010 10:30 schreef Ploertendoder het volgende:
Ik ben benieuwd wat Julia gaat doen

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Op vrijdag 17 september 2010 13:23 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Heb je ook plaatsnamen waar die eventueel aan land zou kunnen gaan?

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Op vrijdag 17 september 2010 13:53 schreef aloa het volgende:
Karl, Igor en Julia

[ afbeelding ]

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Op vrijdag 17 september 2010 14:05 schreef Timm-E het volgende:

[..]

Op welke site kun je dit soort beelden vinden?

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Hurricanes to Threaten US Late in September, October

While no hurricanes have thus far made landfall on the U.S., forecast weather patterns during the last part of September into October and the first part of November suggest that may be about to change.
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi is holding firm with his prediction of 18 to 21 named storms in the Atlantic 2010 hurricane season.
Additionally, Joe still expects multiple direct impacts on the U.S.



As the Cape Verde season winds down in October, which is a typical occurrence, the raging La Nina in the Pacific opens the door for warm waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico to take center stage.
Changing weather patterns and the approach of cool fronts from northern latitudes would then generate and help steer these tropical storms and hurricanes onto the U.S. coastline in the Gulf, and potentially along the Atlantic Seaboard.
Joe stated that the Cape Verde season typically winds down in October, as prior hurricanes have churned and cooled these waters. At the same time, the Asian Monsoon diminishes, ending the parade of disturbances across Africa and the infamous tropical waves around the Cape Verde Islands.
Breeding grounds during the last third of hurricane season typically migrate toward the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and far western Atlantic because of this.



According to Bastardi, "A switch from an El Nino to La Nina pattern is notorious for a jam-packed late hurricane season."
As a result, people in the coastal U.S., especially along the Gulf of Mexico, should not let their guard down.
Joe asserts, "There is an imbalance in the atmosphere, and much more energy has yet to be released."
Incidentally, at least one computer model insists a potent hurricane will form in the western Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico before the end of September.

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Op vrijdag 17 september 2010 19:29 schreef aloa het volgende:
Het seizoen is nog niet voorbij.
[..]

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Bermuda, eastern side of the island. this cam is towards west end

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Op zondag 19 september 2010 12:19 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Het gebied voor de kust van Afrika is nu 60%, dus dat zal vast wel een nieuwe orkaan worden. Ben benieuwd of die nou eens een zuidelijkere koers zal gaan aanhouden. Achter het 60%-gebied ligt nog een groot complex klaar, dus het wordt weer druk de komende 2 weken.

En Igor stelt trouwens ook niet veel meer voor afgezien van de regenval.

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Op maandag 20 september 2010 10:05 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Komt dit voort uit de resten van Orkaan Karl?

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Op maandag 20 september 2010 15:35 schreef aloa het volgende:
Er lijkt deze week ook nog een storm te ontstaan in de Caribische zee. De Golf lijkt voorlopig rustig.

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Op maandag 20 september 2010 19:06 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:

[..]

Ik lees net op Accuweather dat dat inderdaad gaat gebeuren. En die orkaan zal de V.S. ook gaan bereiken. Begin oktober staat dat gepland.

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Op maandag 20 september 2010 19:11 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Deze week lijkt er ook al een te ontstaan, die trekt dan over Nicaraqua en Honduras.
Afwachten maar.

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Op dinsdag 21 september 2010 11:44 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]



10% voor het gebied bij de Windward Islands

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Op dinsdag 21 september 2010 13:39 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Ben benieuwd naar dat gebied in de Carraïben.. Lisa gaat niets worden, die wordt tegengehouden door hogedrukgebieden lijkt het wel.

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Igor is trouwens nog steeds flink actief. Nog steeds razen er orkaanwinden rond het centrum en New Foundland krijgt daar een flinke veeg van mee. Zelfs als het centrum van Igor New Foundland is gepasseerd en op rond 60 graden noorderbreedte is aangekomen, wordt Igor nog op orkaansterkte gezet en pas daarna, als hij verder naar het noordwesten koerst, neemt de windsterkte af. Hoe dan ook, het moge duidelijk zijn dat Igor op zeer grote afstand van Europa blijft.

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Op dinsdag 21 september 2010 13:39 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Ben benieuwd naar dat gebied in de Carraïben.. Lisa gaat niets worden, die wordt tegengehouden door hogedrukgebieden lijkt het wel.

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The main concern is going to be the Caribbean Sea. I have been talking about the pattern change coming up and it is almost upon us. Most of the major computer models indicate the formation of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean over the course of the next week or less. Right now, the NHC has an area outlined just entering the eastern Caribbean. It should migrate westward and be situated in the western to northwestern Caribbean by the end of the week. At that point, development is likely to begin ramping up as conditions appear quite favorable going out in time. In fact, water temps in the western Caribbean are the warmest anywhere in the Atlantic Basin with extremely high ocean heat content. I need not remind you of the intense hurricanes that have come out of the northwest Caribbean over the course of history. We will need to keep a close eye on what goes on in this region from here on out as I suspect that a significant threat to land masses is in order. It is too soon to know if that threat includes Florida or elsewhere along the Gulf Coast. Right now, Jamaica, the Caymans and the Greater Antilles would be at risk from possible heavy rains and perhaps more as this system begins to organize.

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An area of low pressure over the south central Caribbean may develop into Matthew over the next couple of days as conditions become more favorable for development.
Too much dry air and too much wind shear have been in place for the low to become better organized so far; however, wind shear is weakening as the low moves over very warm water of the Caribbean.



The system could organize into a depression later today and a tropical storm by Saturday.
Whether the system develops or not, it will target Central America with potentially flooding rainfall over the weekend.
The track of the system is still uncertain after it unleashes torrential rainfall over portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico.
Two different scenarios are that the system will keep moving westward from the Gulf of Honduras into next week or it will first stall then move northward in the Caribbean.
More models are pointing to a conclusion that the system will move northward, over Cuba. This puts Florida at risk for a direct impact from the storm by the middle of next week.
Keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for more information on the potential development of this low into Matthew.
More systems are also likely to form in the Caribbean and the southwestern Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.

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Op vrijdag 24 september 2010 11:52 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
NHC verwacht dat de storm verdwenen zal zijn voor 36% volgende week dinsdag. Dus het wordt spannend. Ik kan me trouwens niet herinneren dat een storm noordwaarts over de Golf heentrok.

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Different Scenarios with Matthew into next Week
There are still different scenarios with Matthew into early next week.
One scenario is that Matthew stalls over Central America and gets torn apart into a remnant low due to friction while being over land.
Another scenario is that Matthew could still turn to the north and head in Florida's direction. Whether it does or not, more tropical moisture will be pulled toward the East late this weekend into next week.
Other tropical disturbances will move into the Caribbean through next week, and these could strengthen and become named tropical systems.
It seems most likely that a disturbance that follows Matthew will be the one that ends up heading farther north toward Cuba and Florida next week.

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Op vrijdag 24 september 2010 21:01 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Mmmm naar Florida, toch nog niet zo'n gek bericht van vanmiddag Als Matthew een pinhole eye krijgt (dit is een zeer smal oog en een indicator voor extreme intensivering.) net zoals Karl en niet te vergeten Wilma in 2005 dan kan het nog best een flinke orkaan worden die in een dag cq 1.5 dag uit kan groeien tot major hurricane

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Op vrijdag 24 september 2010 21:06 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Zullen we een chase houden met zijn allen?

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Op vrijdag 24 september 2010 22:51 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]



Als fok goes Japanese, kunnen we ook fok goes HurricaneChase?

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Tropische storm komt aan in Centaal-Amerika

AMSTERDAM – Tropische Storm Matthew is vrijdagmiddag (lokale tijd) aan land gekomen in het oosten van Nicaragua. De storm zal naar verwachting voor overstromingen en aardverschuivingen zorgen in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize en Guatemala.


Dat melden het Amerikaanse Hurricane Centre en AccuWeather.
In Honduras, Guatemala en Belize wordt zo’n tien tot twintig centimeter regen verwacht in korte tijd. Lokaal kan zelfs meer dan dertig centimeter neerslag vallen. Later zal de storm het binnenland van Guatemala intrekken.

Aardverschuivingen
Naast eventuele overstromingen kan Matthew ook zorgen voor aardverschuivingen die volgens Amerikaanse bronnen ‘levensgevaarlijk’ kunnen zijn. Er worden bovendien windsnelheden van zo’n honderd kilometer per uur verwacht.
Nicaragua heeft in verband met de tropische storm meer dan 10.000 mensen geëvacueerd. Honduras heeft preventief de staat van paraatheid uitgeroepen en heeft tevens mensen geëvacueerd uit een aantal kustplaatsjes.
Later in of zelfs na het weekend zal de storm Mexico bereiken. Dan is de kracht echter al behoorlijk afgenomen.

bron

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Zeven doden door overstromingen in Venezuela
Bij overstromingen in de Venezolaanse hoofdstad Caracas zijn zeven mensen om het leven gekomen. Dat hebben de hulpdiensten laten weten. Het noodweer is het gevolg van de tropische orkaan Matthew die onder meer gepaard gaat met stortregens.

Matthew ging vrijdag aan land in Centraal-Amerika. De storm gaat gepaard met een stevige wind, maar vooral met hevige regen. Het gebied heeft de voobije maanden al met overstromingen moeten afrekenen, na een van de ergste regenseizoenen in zestig jaar. Daarbij vielen zo'n 300 doden

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Orkaan Julia brak een rij aan orkaan-records
Orkaan Julia blijkt gezorgd tehebben voor tal van records voor wat betreft orkanen op Atlantische Oceaan. Orkaan Julia was het tiende tropische lagedruksysteem in de Atlantische Oceaan in 2010 dat een naam kreeg vanwege het bereiken van de orkaanstatus. Het systeem is ontstaan in de buurt van de Kaapverdische eilanden voor de Afrikaanse westkust aan het begin van week 37 en nam explosief in kracht toe in de nacht van woensdag 15 september en wel tot een categorie 4 orkaan met windsnelheden van 220 km/uur.

Later bleek dat Julia daarmee meerdere records voor tropische cyclonen in de Atlantische Oceaan had veroorzaakt o.a. tesamen met de in de buurt liggende gelijktijdige orkaan Igor, die meer naar het westen lag.

Record 1: Julia is een categorie 4 orkaan die het verst oostelijk op de Oceaan geregistreerd werd en aldus het dichtst bij Europa.
Record 2: Met Julia's opwaardering naar categorie 4 orkaan is 2010 het jaar waarin het vroegst een 4e categorie 4 orkaan is ontstaan.
Record 3: met het bereiken van die categorie 4 was er het 4e systeem met die kracht ontstaan binnen slechts 20 dagen. Het vorige record, van 24 dagen, was van 1999.

Mogelijk niet eerder gebeurd: Julia en Karl werden categorie 4 op hetzelfde moment. Alleen in 1926 zou dit ook gebeurd zijn, dat op de Atlantische Oceaan twee categorie 4-systemen tegelijk ontstonden. (maar in die tijd was het meer fingerspitzgefühl die vaststelling: er waren geen satellieten, boeien en orkaanjachtvliegtuigen met dropsondes. De exacte datum en tijd voor een bepaalde status was veel minder goed bekend dan tegenwoordig).

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Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

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Op zaterdag 25 september 2010 20:14 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Het is toch maar even in de gaten houden wat het allemaal gaat doen.
Hopelijk veel live streams en weergegevens alleen dat zien we helaas niet zo vaak

Als hier een orkaan komt dan zou ik 10.000den bezoekers trekken over de hele wereld

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Op zaterdag 25 september 2010 20:20 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Ik kan maar 1 orkaan ontdekken die Nederland ooit heeft aangedaan.
Windkracht 9 dan waai je hier al bijna van de dijk. Ik kan me niet voorstellen hoe hard een kracht 12 is.

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Op zondag 26 september 2010 00:32 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

[..]

25 januari 1990, windkracht 11, 158 km/h, IJmuiden/Schiphol kan ik me nog wel herinneren

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Op zondag 26 september 2010 18:57 schreef aloa het volgende:
Dit moet Nicole gaan worden.
Nu nog 10%

[ afbeelding ]

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Op maandag 27 september 2010 09:09 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]



Dat zijn dus niet de resten van Matthew?

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Op zondag 26 september 2010 18:57 schreef aloa het volgende:
Dit moet Nicole gaan worden.
Nu nog 10%

[ afbeelding ]

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Op maandag 27 september 2010 22:27 schreef aloa het volgende:
Foto van de schade door Igor in New Foundland

[ afbeelding ]

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2010 08:12 schreef aloa het volgende:
60% nu.

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The area of showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean that the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has been concerned about for days has become the Atlantic's 16th tropical depression.
The system has developed over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean with favorable conditions allowing an area of low pressure to become better organized.



The tropical depression has a good chance at becoming Tropical Storm Nicole over the next 48 hours.
The system is first expected to impact Cuba then to take aim at Florida and the U.S. East Coast this week.
The latest statistics on T.D. 16 can be found at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.
The system could continue to strengthen while over warm water in an environment with little wind shear during the next 24 hours.
T.D. 16 will then bring eastern and central Cuba heavy rain, tropical storm-force winds and battering surf, especially along the south-central shore, late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Four to 8 inches could soak central parts of Cuba with locally higher amounts over the mountains.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides can result from upwards of 6 inches of rain at the local level.
The higher terrain of Cuba could cause the system to lose strength before it moves back over the open water of the Straits of Florida on Wednesday.
Southern and central Florida and the Bahamas are in line for hefty rainfall, especially later Wednesday, that may also result in flash flooding.
High winds will slam the east coast of Florida, perhaps causing localized damage and coastal flooding.



The system will then move on to impact much of the East Coast during the latter part of this week with potentially flooding rainfall, high winds, rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
The strength and the exact track of the storm as it skirts the Eastern Seaboard are still far from set in stone.
The system will be battling strong wind shear by the time it reaches the East Coast of the U.S., and this could prevent it from strengthening or even maintaining tropical storm strength.



Even if the system is just a remnant low by the time it reaches the East Coast, heavy rainfall and flooding will be the major concern.
However, gusty winds and beach erosion could become serious problems as well.
A storm system lashing the East early this week will leave the East more vulnerable to flooding. Some parts of eastern North Carolina have been deluged by more than 10 inches of rain.
Residents and business interests of Florida, the Bahamas and the East Coast should keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for updates on T.D. 16 destined to become Tropical Storm Nicole.

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54 doden door zware regenval in Nicaragua
In het Centraal-Amerikaanse Nicaragua heeft de zware regenval van de voorbije dagen al 54 slachtoffers geëist. Zo'n 5.000 mensen zijn dakloos, tal van wegen en bruggen zijn zwaarbeschadigd. Zo'n 8.000 woningen zijn overstroomd, meldt de regering.

Stijgend waterpeil
De tropische storm Matthew treft vooral de noordelijke provincies Estelí en Matagalpa, Chinandega in het noordwesten en het westelijke León.

In de hoofdstad Managua zorgt het waterpeil van het Managuameer voor kopzorgen. Het stijgende water vormt een bedreiging voor duizenden armen. De regering roept op tot voorzichtigheid. De regenperiode loopt ten einde in november.

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Chinese dam staat op instorten door tyfoon

XINYI - Een Chinese stuwdam die door tyfoon Fanapi zwaar beschadigd is geraakt, zal worden afgebroken. De dam vormt momenteel een gevaar voor de tienduizenden mensen die erachter wonen.

Dat meldde het Chinees staatspersbureau Xinhua woensdag.
De dam in de stad Xinyi in de zuidelijke provincie Guangdong is niet meer te repareren. Volgens experts kan het ruim 28 meter hoge bouwwerk elk moment instorten. De dam zal in fases worden neergehaald met explosieven. Op die manier kan het water uit het stuwmeer geleidelijk weglopen.

Opblazen

Woensdag zal twee keer een deel van de dam worden opgeblazen. Donderdag gebeurt hetzelfde, waarna het gevaar voor overstromingen geweken zal zijn, aldus de overheid.

Door de tyfoon kwamen eerder deze maand meer dan honderd mensen om het leven. Honderdduizenden werden geëvacueerd.

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Op donderdag 30 september 2010 11:11 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Vraag me af of Nicole wel de status tropische storm heeft verdiend.. Ik denk dat ze een onderzoek zullen gaan starten of dat ding uberhaupt als een TS geclassificeerd kon worden

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Op donderdag 30 september 2010 11:57 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Er zijn al weer 2 nieuwe waves die langzaamaan ontwikkelen en westwaarts trekken, dus wellicht kom er al weer snel nieuw vuurwerk aan...

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Nicole Will Hit Like a Hurricane
.
Nicole will continue to reorganize and strengthen Thursday prior to landfall in North Carolina at night.
Ignore the official classification of Nicole as a "remnant low" or even a "tropical rainstorm," as the effects will be similar to that of a hurricane from eastern North Carolina to New England.

Nicole may be changing character. However, it is getting stronger and may hit some areas from the Outer Banks to the barrier islands of New Jersey and Long Island with gusts as high as hurricane force spanning tonight and Friday.

Unfortunately, this rush to downgrade Nicole to a remnant low has lifted attention from the serious nature of the event, and may place lives and property unnecessarily in peril, since people will let their guard down as a result.

Impacts could be significant whether gusts are 40, 60 or 80 mph at various locations due to saturated ground and leafed foliage.

As Meteorologist Mark Mancuso pointed out, "The soggy ground and high winds will cause fully leafed trees to easily topple and soggy branches to fall, taking power lines with them."

As we warned about here at AccuWeather.com in recent days, conditions will be dangerous for travel in these areas tonight into Friday due to the potential number of downed trees and magnitude of flooding.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi has been very concerned about the dangers from Nicole.

A period of strong onshore winds will also lead to coastal flooding, especially at times of high tide, perhaps as far inland as the upper part of the Delaware and Chesapeake bays.

Pounding surf for a time will lead to beach erosion.

Tropical banding of the rain and thunderstorms could also trigger short-lived, rain-wrapped tornadoes in coastal areas from North Carolina to southern New England.

When people wake up Friday morning, they may be wondering what hit them.

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Twee doden in Jamaica door Nicole
De tropische storm Nicole heeft tijdens een doortocht op het Caribische eiland Jamaica twee doden geëist. Een dozijn andere mensen is nog steeds vermist. Het getroffen gebied werd eveneens geteisterd door overstromingen en modderstromen.

De storm ging gepaard met hevige windstoten en overvloedige regenval. Verschillende wegen werden overspoeld, dorpen werden afgesneden van enige hulp.

Zowel scholen en universiteiten als bedrijven en overheidsinstellingen blijven voorlopig gesloten. Een groot deel van het land zit momenteel zonder drinkwater. De storm heeft ondertussen koers gezet richting Cuba. (belga/svm)

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East Coast Flood: The Latest Reports
by weather.com Digital Content Team
The remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole could become an historic storm for the East Coast. Millions of people are in the path of the storm, and major flash flooding concerns exist for every state from the Carolinas to Maine.


The Weather Channel is keeping you up to date on the latest flooding, high wind, and severe weather reports from this East Coast storm.

.

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Op maandag 4 oktober 2010 14:33 schreef aloa het volgende:
Gebied 1 is nu 20%. Dit kan wel wat gaan worden.

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Op dinsdag 5 oktober 2010 10:59 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]



50% inmiddels

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Paula verantwoordelijk voor een nieuw record

Tropische orkaan Paula heeft zich in 12 uur tijd ontwikkeld van een tropische depressie tot een orkaan. Daarmee is Paula de eerste orkaan die in zo'n korte tijd tot ontwikkeling is gekomen.

Dinsdagavond was de druk gedaald tot 982hPa en daarmee is het een orkaan van de tweede categorie. De verwachting is dat het systeem min of meer stationair wordt en voor grote hoeveelheden regen kan zorgen in o.a. het westelijke deel van Cuba.

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Op woensdag 13 oktober 2010 16:41 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Tyfoon Megi

[ afbeelding ]

Dat wordt een behoorlijke joekel
Categorie 4 inmiddels

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Megi, the latest named storm for the western North Pacific Ocean basin, has formed over the southern Philippines Sea.
As of Wednesday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Megi was 310 miles west-southwest of Guam and more than 1,300 miles east of Manila, Philippines. Megi held highest sustained winds of 50 mph and was drifting towards the west at about 5 mph.
Megi will strengthen as it tracks towards the west and northwest over open seas for the next few days. Strengthening to a typhoon is forecast. Moreover, rapid strengthening to a major typhoon, even a "super" typhoon, is possible, as both oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable.

Eventually, Megi will either strike the main northern Philippines island of Luzon, or it will veer northward, away from Philippines, over the western Philippines Sea.
Direct typhoon landfall upon heavily settled northern Luzon would pose a serious threat to life and property.

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula continues to weaken, and the storm may no longer be a hurricane. The latest 8:06am EDT center report found the pressure had risen to 1002 mb, and the aircraft saw top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 60 mph between 6am and 9am EDT. The Hurricane Hunters did not report the existence of an eyewall, and Cuban radar (Figure 1) indicates that the southern portion of the eyewall has collapsed, leaving Paula with just 1/3 of an eyewall. Paula is moving at 5 mph along the northern coast of Cuba, and is bringing heavy rains to the western portion of the island. Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba has picked up 4.85" of rain so far from Paula, and a wind gust of 60 mph was reported on the western tip of the island. Heavy rains have also hit the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West picking up 0.62" inches of rain in just 30 minutes from a heavy rain squall that ended at 7:30am EDT. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain. High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds of 30 knots out of the south are tearing Paula apart, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to the shear, and the low-level center is almost exposed to view. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and the intensity of Paula's thunderstorms has waned significantly over the past few hours.

Forecast for Paula
The models have come into better agreement on the future track of Paula, with the storm expected to move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next three days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning, and bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the most populous region of the country. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula within 48 hours, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. A path just off the coast will let Paula live a little longer, but not much longer. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next two days regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 50 miles from Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 83% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, but it currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. The hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of Cuba, creating flooding hazards.

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Op vrijdag 15 oktober 2010 13:28 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Nu weer een nieuw gebied van 10% bij de Carraïben wat potentieel heeft om zich te ontwikkelen.

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I might have jinxed the system

Even though we humans have no control over the large scale weather systems such as hurricanes, we can often joke about jinxing things one way or another. This may be one of those cases. I said yesterday that I did not think 99L would develop- this was due to land interaction and the fact that the global models were pushing it west in to Central America and/or out in to the east Pacific. Well, this is clearly not happening and it may be that sooner rather than later we have a depression on our hands.

We may know more later today as the NHC has tasked a recon plane to go out and investigate the system if it looks to be on the uptick this afternoon. Just looking at satellite shots, you can clearly see it is growing in size and organization and it is not moving in to Central America

The GFDL model was the most robust with development- showing it becoming quite a strong hurricane in the northwest Caribbean over the next five days

Even the HWRF model is suggesting fairly significant development- though at a slow pace.

The bottom line is that we will need to monitor this system closer now. People with interests in the northwest Caribbean from the Caymans to western Cuba to the Yucatan could be dealing with off and on squalls as the system organizes and drifts slowly around the region. I'll post another update later this afternoon when/if the recon plane heads out to investigate.

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Thursday October 21, 2010 7:00 AM EDT Update
TD#19 is drifting around in the western Caribbean, but forecast to move over the Yucatan closer to Monday as a hurricane, those in the Yucatan will want to watch this system very closely, and possibly Florida later.

If the forecast verifies, after weakening over the Yucatan it may have a chance to enter the southern Gulf, and from there possibly affect the north central or northwestern Gulf, a large high pressure should keep it west of Florida, again if it does make it into the Gulf shear will likely affect it adversely and keep the system weak.

If the system moves further north more quickly than forecast it could maintain hurricane strength and approach Florida from the west, so it will be worth watching in that scenario. If this situation were to occur, it would probably be near the 26th..

Based on the official forecast, the Yucatan has the most to worry from the system, and beyond some rainfall for a portion of the gulf coast west of Florida seems most likely, but there will be plenty of time to watch the system over the coming days.

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Op vrijdag 22 oktober 2010 10:38 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Ja dat gaat wel bizar snel van cat. 1 naar 2. Zijn de warmteverschillen van het zeewater daar zo groot ofzo? Of het heeft te maken met wind shear, kan ook.

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91L
This is the system that I am most concerned about in the longer term. It is located to the east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands and has a large envelope of energy associated with it. Conditions look to be getting more favorable by the hour. The SHIPS intensity model is quite bullish on this developing down the road and it could reach the Windwards as a tropical storm. Once it enters the Caribbean Sea, it looks as though it should have gained enough latitude to stay clear of the South American land mass. This means we could be looking at a strengthening tropical cyclone moving through the eastern and central Caribbean early next week. What we do not want to see is this getting anywhere near Haiti and moving slowly at that. This time of year, tropical cyclones can move quite slowly and be sprawling weather systems- capable of dumping a lot of rain. Haiti has been very fortunate this season to avoid any tropical issues but we will need to monitor this situation very closely. There is also a chance this feature eventually threatens Jamaica and southeast Cuba but we're talking well beyond the normal time frame of reliable forecasts. I expect that the NHC will upgrade 91L to "high" chance of development later this evening.

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A tropical system that could garner the name "Tomas" will take center stage in the Caribbean, threatening populated areas and perhaps making a bad situation in Haiti much worse.
While people on the Leewards, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may be able to breathe a sigh of relief, concerns are shifting farther to the south and west in the Caribbean.
This weekend, the system will unload heavy rainfall over the Windwards, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela and the small islands bordering the Cariaco and Bonaire basins.
Locales in this region may be hit with rainfall rates of up to several inches per hour, unleashing flash flooding, washouts and mudslides. Rough seas will endanger small craft and fishing interests.
Close proximity to South America will interfere with the system's strength this weekend. However, AccuWeather.com meteorologists have great concerns beyond the weekend.
The overall large size of the feature may allow it to persevere as it navigates the northern edge of the large land mass.
During the first part of next week, there are indications the system may drift into the open waters of the central Caribbean. This would prop the door wide open for rapid intensification.
Possible paths next week range from a direct strike on Haiti to a farther west path toward Jamaica or even Central America. It appears the westerlies would prevent a strike on the U.S.
It would be a horrible scenario if the system were to turn to the north and slam Haiti as a hurricane. Unfortunately, that is at least a possibility at this point.
After being devastated by a powerful earthquake last winter, cholera is now claiming lives in Haiti. Even a glancing blow from a hurricane or a brush with a tropical storm could lead to catastrophe from flash flooding and mudslides.
It would also be ironic, as Haiti has dodged many bullets from the tropics this season, only to be hit by possibly the last hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic season.
Hurricane season does not officially end until November 30.

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A tropical cyclone could bring damaging wind and flooding rain to eastern India at the end of the week.
As of Wednesday, a tropical weather system, formerly a tropical depression near the Malay Peninsula, was gathering over the Andaman Sea. This weather system will organize into a tropical depression and later, a tropical cyclone, over the open Bay of Bengal by Friday.



The latest information indicates that landfall of a cyclone of tropical storm or even hurricane strength is projected to take place on or about Sunday. It is likely landfall would be in the southeastern state of Andhra Pradesh.
The greatest threat to life and property will stem from torrential rain and flooding, especially near the coast.
Also a threat will be damaging winds and even a flooding storm tide.
This tropical weather system already has a history of adverse weather. It triggered flooding rain over southernmost Thailand on Sunday and Monday.

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Staat nog niks op de kaart toch aloa? Ik ben benieuwd, Thomas wordt ook weer een lachertje, dus hoop nog steeds op een cat. 4 of 5 in de Golf.