Hurricane Season 2010 # 3

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Op woensdag 13 oktober 2010 16:41 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Tyfoon Megi

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Categorie 4 inmiddels

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Megi, the latest named storm for the western North Pacific Ocean basin, has formed over the southern Philippines Sea.
As of Wednesday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Megi was 310 miles west-southwest of Guam and more than 1,300 miles east of Manila, Philippines. Megi held highest sustained winds of 50 mph and was drifting towards the west at about 5 mph.
Megi will strengthen as it tracks towards the west and northwest over open seas for the next few days. Strengthening to a typhoon is forecast. Moreover, rapid strengthening to a major typhoon, even a "super" typhoon, is possible, as both oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable.

Eventually, Megi will either strike the main northern Philippines island of Luzon, or it will veer northward, away from Philippines, over the western Philippines Sea.
Direct typhoon landfall upon heavily settled northern Luzon would pose a serious threat to life and property.

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula continues to weaken, and the storm may no longer be a hurricane. The latest 8:06am EDT center report found the pressure had risen to 1002 mb, and the aircraft saw top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 60 mph between 6am and 9am EDT. The Hurricane Hunters did not report the existence of an eyewall, and Cuban radar (Figure 1) indicates that the southern portion of the eyewall has collapsed, leaving Paula with just 1/3 of an eyewall. Paula is moving at 5 mph along the northern coast of Cuba, and is bringing heavy rains to the western portion of the island. Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba has picked up 4.85" of rain so far from Paula, and a wind gust of 60 mph was reported on the western tip of the island. Heavy rains have also hit the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West picking up 0.62" inches of rain in just 30 minutes from a heavy rain squall that ended at 7:30am EDT. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain. High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds of 30 knots out of the south are tearing Paula apart, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to the shear, and the low-level center is almost exposed to view. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and the intensity of Paula's thunderstorms has waned significantly over the past few hours.

Forecast for Paula
The models have come into better agreement on the future track of Paula, with the storm expected to move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next three days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning, and bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the most populous region of the country. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula within 48 hours, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. A path just off the coast will let Paula live a little longer, but not much longer. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next two days regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 50 miles from Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 83% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, but it currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. The hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of Cuba, creating flooding hazards.

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A tropical system that could garner the name "Tomas" will take center stage in the Caribbean, threatening populated areas and perhaps making a bad situation in Haiti much worse.
While people on the Leewards, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may be able to breathe a sigh of relief, concerns are shifting farther to the south and west in the Caribbean.
This weekend, the system will unload heavy rainfall over the Windwards, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela and the small islands bordering the Cariaco and Bonaire basins.
Locales in this region may be hit with rainfall rates of up to several inches per hour, unleashing flash flooding, washouts and mudslides. Rough seas will endanger small craft and fishing interests.
Close proximity to South America will interfere with the system's strength this weekend. However, AccuWeather.com meteorologists have great concerns beyond the weekend.
The overall large size of the feature may allow it to persevere as it navigates the northern edge of the large land mass.
During the first part of next week, there are indications the system may drift into the open waters of the central Caribbean. This would prop the door wide open for rapid intensification.
Possible paths next week range from a direct strike on Haiti to a farther west path toward Jamaica or even Central America. It appears the westerlies would prevent a strike on the U.S.
It would be a horrible scenario if the system were to turn to the north and slam Haiti as a hurricane. Unfortunately, that is at least a possibility at this point.
After being devastated by a powerful earthquake last winter, cholera is now claiming lives in Haiti. Even a glancing blow from a hurricane or a brush with a tropical storm could lead to catastrophe from flash flooding and mudslides.
It would also be ironic, as Haiti has dodged many bullets from the tropics this season, only to be hit by possibly the last hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic season.
Hurricane season does not officially end until November 30.

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A tropical cyclone could bring damaging wind and flooding rain to eastern India at the end of the week.
As of Wednesday, a tropical weather system, formerly a tropical depression near the Malay Peninsula, was gathering over the Andaman Sea. This weather system will organize into a tropical depression and later, a tropical cyclone, over the open Bay of Bengal by Friday.



The latest information indicates that landfall of a cyclone of tropical storm or even hurricane strength is projected to take place on or about Sunday. It is likely landfall would be in the southeastern state of Andhra Pradesh.
The greatest threat to life and property will stem from torrential rain and flooding, especially near the coast.
Also a threat will be damaging winds and even a flooding storm tide.
This tropical weather system already has a history of adverse weather. It triggered flooding rain over southernmost Thailand on Sunday and Monday.