Hurricane Season 2010 # 2

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Op donderdag 1 juli 2010 19:41 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Vrij normaal. Dit was de eerste juni orkaan sinds 1995.

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Op donderdag 1 juli 2010 20:01 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Zou Alex in de Pacific opnieuw tot leven komen?

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Op vrijdag 2 juli 2010 11:51 schreef aloa het volgende:
Het is opvallend rustig in de West Pacific. Meestal is het daar drukker dan b.v. in de oost pacific of Atlantische Oceaan. Volgens mij is daar de afgelopen maand niets geweest.

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1. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS LOW
WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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However the wave in the western Caribbean (96L) has a much better overall chance to develop, and could in the next few days. If it were to form it would most likely take the westerly track and wind up in Mexico. The situation is slightly different than with Alex, so it'll require monitoring by those in the Gulf through the week.

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Op zondag 4 juli 2010 22:26 schreef aloa het volgende:
Het is nu een Tropische Depressie (35 miles/uur).
Lijkt erop dat de 2e storm met een naam in aantocht is.
Dat gaat dan Bonnie worden.

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Op maandag 5 juli 2010 08:15 schreef aloa het volgende:
50% nu. En het lijkt druk te gaan worden.

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The first area, 95L in the Gulf, is a very small low pressure area that, for a bit yesterday, spun up quite a bit. Even though in all likelihood nothing will ever develop out of the system, it still needs to be watched because it is so small and so close to land. It has the potential to spin up very quickly because of the small size, but more likely to spin out/down ever faster. Conditions around it favor no development.

The second area being tracked is the tropical wave (96L) in the Western Caribbean. It has the best chance,currently, of all the areas to develop, but looks to remain on the weaker side. Looking at satellite imagery this morning it is not looking that great. It is on the edge of a shear zone, and it has ok outflow, but it hasn't really persisted enough. It still has a fairly high chance of development, but just not today. If this one develops, it is most likely going to stay weak. It is bringing rainfall to the Caymans and the Yucatan.

With 96L being a weaker system it implies a more westerly move, but the overall patter is less so than it was for Alex. Recon was scheduled to go out to the system today, but it was canceled because of how poorly organized it looks this morning. They may try again tomorrow.

The final wave is in the east Caribbean which may be worth watching later in the week when it arrives in the western side, but until then it'll just be watched.

The area northeast of the Bahamas is now off the list.

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Bonnie heading for South Texas?
A week after Hurricane Alex slammed onshore, a new tropical system that is being monitored for development will target South Texas and northeastern Mexico on Thursday.

Despite tracking well away from the oil spill area, the system still threatens to disrupt cleanup and containment efforts in the northern Gulf and could lead to flooding problems along and inland of the Texas Coast.

Latest on the Tropical System

The system being monitored for development has just exited the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The system is rather disorganized with no thunderstorms wrapping around a well-defined center, after being beaten up by the large land mass.

The system could become better organized as it heads northwestward. Enough strengthening could take place that the second tropical depression or tropical storm of the season develops by midday Thursday.

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin would acquire the name "Bonnie."

The water in the western Gulf of Mexico is warm enough to support strengthening. Strong winds high in the atmosphere, also known as wind shear, will be absent.

Current forecast models indicate that if a tropical storm does develop, the system will probably press inland too quickly to intensify into a hurricane. South Texas or far northeastern Mexico is where the system should move onshore on Thursday, although perhaps farther north than Alex's landfall.

Even if development does not take place, the system threatens to unleash drenching thunderstorms around and north of its center. Additional rainfall on already soaked South Texas and northeastern Mexico could lead to new flooding problems.

For now it appears the heaviest rain would fall along the middle Texas coast, due to the lopsided nature of the system at this time.

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Conson kills 26 in the Philippines

Typhoon Conson has killed 26 people so far in the Philippines. Phot:Reuters

The first typhoon of the year to hit the Philippines has killed at least 26 people and left millions without electricity on the main island, Luzon. President Benigno Aquino criticised weather forecasters who'd failed to predict that the storm would hit the capital, Manila. In the meantime, Macau has raised its No.1 typhoon signal as Conson moves over the South China Sea towards Western Guangdong. And, the Hong kong Observatory says it will consider tomorrow whether to raise the strong storm signal number one.

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Op woensdag 14 juli 2010 10:28 schreef aloa het volgende:
9 doden op de Filipijnen.
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Dodental loopt op tot 65
ij de doortocht van tyfoon Conson op de Filipijnen zijn al zeker 65 mensen om het leven gekomen. Er zijn nog 87 vermisten, deelde de overheid vandaag mee. Vooral het eiland Luzon werd zwaar getroffen. Er werden zowat 19.000 huizen beschadigd.

Het merendeel van de slachtoffers verdronk, werd geraakt door een boom of geëlektrocuteerd. De tweede tyfoon van het jaar haalde windsnelheden tot 150 kilometer per uur.

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De cycloon is vrijdag in Zuid-China aan land gekomen. Met windsnelheden tot 126 kilometer per uur raasde de storm over het eiland Hainan.

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A well developed tropical wave currently bringing strong winds and rough seas north of Puerto Rico could develop into a tropical system by the weekend.

According to AccuWeather.com hurricane meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, there is high potential for this tropical wave to evolve into a tropical depression later on this week.

Wind shear is currently hindering any tropical storm organization of this system. However, as the wave moves swiftly west, this shear will diminish over the next few days.

If the wave were to develop into a tropical storm, models predict the system moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.

The oil spill area over the Gulf of Mexico could be threatened this weekend by enhanced thunderstorms, rough seas and gusty winds.

Oil containment booms are rendered useless in rough seas, and skimming vessel operation have the potential to be delayed.

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7:00 AM Update 21 July 2010
The tropical wave north of Hispaniola (97L) has diminished in activity, but overall development chances are still high for the next 48 hours, at around 60%.



The good news is that it will likely remain weaker, which means a more westerly track, at least in the short term, is more likely. The most likely scenario at the moment is rain or a moderate Tropical Storm approaching south Florida Friday or Saturday, but it could take longer if the forward motion of the system remains slow. If it remains weak longer, the further south it would likely stay, and may miss Florida to the south (although South Florida may still get rain out of it)

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WSI cuts Atlantic Hurricane forceast
NEW YORK (Reuters)—Private weather forecaster WSI Corp. cut its forecast for named storms in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on Tuesday but still sees an active season, with water temperatures and wind conditions conducive to violent storms.

In its latest tropical storm update, WSI called for 19 named storms, down from 20 in its June forecast, but maintained its outlook for 11 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The 2010 forecast is well above the 1950-2009 averages of 10 named storms, six hurricanes, and twp intense hurricanes.

"Record warm tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures and an enabling wind shear environment should result in a very active tropical season this year," said Todd Crawford, WSI's chief meteorologist.

The disappearance of the El Niño event and a decrease in vertical wind shear both point to the potential for more Atlantic storms, WSI said.

A slow start to the hurricane season led to the downward revision in named storms. A pocket of dry air in the Atlantic is likely to limit development in the near term, WSI said, while August to October is expected to be a very active period.

WSI's models also indicate that the area from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.

"Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on a par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states," WSI said.

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 12:21 schreef aloa het volgende:
Typhoon CHANTHU is als categorie 1 aan land gegaan bij China. De ellende wordt daar alleen maar groter en groter.

zie ook: Overstromingen Azie: Honderden doden en vermisten

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 15:03 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Ik meen dat ze een aantal dagen nodig hebben om alles daar weg te krijgen. De boel ligt er dan zo'n 2 weken stil. Stel dat er dan weer een storm achter aan komt, dan zit je zo 3/4 weken verder.

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 15:07 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Inderdaad ja. Is daar op zo'n diepte iets te merken van zo'n storm?

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Effect Hurricanes on Deepwater Horizon oil spill?
Hurricanes roaring across the Gulf of Mexico create strong enough underwater waves to dig up and potentially bust open oil pipelines that run across the ocean floor, according to a new study that recorded the currents created by the massive storms.

The massive Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf has focused attentions on the potential for more such environmental disasters, particularly now that the 2010 hurricane season has started. Scientists and officials are not only worried about how a storm might exacerbate the current spill, but the potential for it to cause another one, possibly by causing a rupture in an oil pipeline.

At least 31,000 miles (50,000 kilometers) of pipelines snake across the floor of the Gulf, according to the Minerals Management Service, and hurricanes have long been known to cause a range of damage to them, from dents to full ruptures.

After 2004's Hurricane Ivan, the MMS cited 168 pipeline damage reports; after Rita in 2005, it was 243; and there were 299 in the wake of devastating Hurricane Katrina, said Bill Teague of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center in Mississippi.

The numbers Teague cited were based on a 2006 MMS report stated that Ivan "produced high levels of pipeline damage, many resulting from mudslides and excessive movement in the Mississippi Delta region." The report listed separations of pipelines and rises as the No. 1 type of damage reported from the 168 cases, with "unknown" coming in at No. 2 with 25 incidents and bent risers at No. 3 with 24 reports. Other types of damage included dents, pipeline movements and kinks.

Teague's study did not investigate whether any of these cases of damage had resulted in a leak

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 15:46 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Maakt trouwens niet uit of er nog een orkaan komt.
Morgen komt die Tsunami in de Golf van Mexico + die gifgas bel

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 15:47 schreef j95 het volgende:

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Komt die tsunami ook aan land ?

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 15:48 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Zal wel moeten, anders is het geen tsunami, maar meer een "rogue wave"

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 15:49 schreef j95 het volgende:

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En waarom is dat niet uitgebreid in het nieuws enzo, of is het geen groot gevaar?

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 15:56 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Omdat het een BNW topic is en wordt voorspeld door complottheoristen etc etc. Net als Quakeprediction.com Zijn geen wetenschappelijke feiten voor... al is het leuk om te lezen of volgen

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Op donderdag 22 juli 2010 16:16 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Morgen een tsunami. Waar moet die vandaan komen dan.

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Op vrijdag 23 juli 2010 08:22 schreef Vogue het volgende:
Tropical Storm Bonnie is geboren, maar het kreng gaat 40mph! Dat is zo hard dat het zich nauwelijks kan ontwikkelen tot orkaan. Gelukkig maar, want je kan beter een TS over de olievlek hebben dan een hurricane.

Achter Bonnie ter hoogte van Puerto Rico zit ook een pak bewolking, ben benieuwd wat dat gaat doen!

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Haïti bereidt zich voor op orkanen

Op Haïti worden voorbereidingen getroffen voor het orkaanseizoen om zo een nieuwe ramp te voorkomen.

Sinds de verwoestende aardbeving begin dit jaar, wonen vele Haïtianen in tentenkampen. Het Rode kruis vreest dat er veel slachtoffers vallen, mocht een orkaan over het eiland trekken. De hulporganisatie is bang dat de kampen de windstoten en regenval niet aankunnen en neemt voorzorgsmaatregelen zoals het aanleggen van schuilplaatsen.

Het meteorologisch instituut in de VS voorspelt 9 stormen die tot een orkaan kunnen uitgroeien. Het Rode Kruis schat de kans 50% dat een orkaan Haïti treft.

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LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEEK OF QUIET AND THEN IT IS TIME

Changes are coming. After a nice and quiet period, relatively speaking, since Alex, it appears that August will become quite busy. The evidence to suggest this is seen in the various global computer models which all develop African tropical waves beginning next week. The upper levels are relaxing with less and less shear, water temps are plenty warm and the large outbreaks of Saharan dust are diminishing. All of this is to be expected this time of year and comes as no surprise. There is no reason to speculate on where any future development might impact, it's just too far out in time to worry about things like that. The bottom line is that we are about to begin the most active part of the hurricane season

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TROPICS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AS NHC OUTLINES TWO AREAS OF INTEREST

As I mentioned yesterday, changes appear in the works as the tropics transition from being hostile for development towards more conducive. The NHC now has two areas outlined for potential tropical storm formation though both are currently low in terms of probability. The long range computer models continue to demonstrate a fairly solid consensus that we may see two storms form within the next week to 10 days. As we get in to August, just going on climatology alone, one wouuld expect an uptick in hurricane activity.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN LIKELY FORMING IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC

We are watching a large tropical wave and associated surface low pressure area in the open waters of the central Atlantic. The NHC gives it a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm at any time now. Overall, the conditions are seemingly favorable for development as the system moves steadily westward. However, it is curious to note that the major computer models all but lose the system over the coming days due to very unfavorable upper level winds ahead. What I am seeing is that a strong area of cyclonic flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be present as the low moves west. This is the opposite of what would need to be in place to allow significant strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS intensity model, which was calling for this to become a hurricane, now keeps it as a moderate tropical storm. The GFS and ECMWF models also depict the system as remaining quite weak. So while there is a lot of talk about this feature, I do not see it having much potential at this point in time. We know that things can change but as was the case with TS Bonnie recently, there is a reason the global models do not indicate much development and that reason would seem to be because it won't. It may still become a depression or even a named storm, but anything more than that would be a surprise to me as of now. There is something just not right yet in the atmosphere in the Atlantic Basin that is keeping the lid on prolific development. All of this is great news for anyone living along the coast. Will it continue for the remainder of the season?

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Op dinsdag 3 augustus 2010 09:29 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Lijkt wel of die tropische storm "Aloa" heet

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Op dinsdag 3 augustus 2010 10:55 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

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Staat toch duidelijk Colin

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Op dinsdag 3 augustus 2010 11:01 schreef banaantjeEE het volgende:
Deze foto's wou ik toch met jullie delen

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Op dinsdag 3 augustus 2010 20:04 schreef aloa het volgende:
Active Low (denk ik)

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Op dinsdag 3 augustus 2010 19:54 schreef PeterDM het volgende:
Hallo,

Mijn naam is Peter zoals je al kan afleiden uit mijn gebruikersnaam.
Ben nog een "groentje" op zowel het gebied van tropische stormen als hier op het forum.
Mijn eerste vraagje naar jullie klinkt misschien wel belachelijk voor de meeste onder jullie "kenners" maar wat is de betekenis van AL04? Die 04 weet ik wel maar die AL ....?

Als er iemand is die zich geroepen voelt om een groentje als ik wat bij te leren over tropische stormen, en waar ik met vraagjes terecht kan, laat maar iets weten. Ik zal je duizend maal dankbaar zijn.

Grtz
Peter

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Op dinsdag 3 augustus 2010 21:45 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:

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AL staat natuurlijk voor Atlantic.
Dit is storm 4 van het seizoen in de Atlantische Oceaan dus wordt het AL04

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WELL? WHAT ABOUT COLIN AND OTHER STORMS?
We have managed to eek out three named storms before August 15th. This is fairly significant considering one of them was category two Alex in late June. All of these systems formed from tropical waves which originated over Africa. The latest is of course TS Colin. However, I beleive, based on the data available, that Colin will never make it to the end of the work week. The reasons are fairly simple: it is too small, moving too fast, the environment is getting more hostile overall and it's still early August. Why does the last part matter? Climatology does play a key role in weather even in years like this where we are expecting a very busy hurricane season. The major uptick in activity does not begin, over the last 100 years, until about mid-August. It's that time frame, from August 15 through the end of October that the tropics are most active- in any given year. As for Colin? Obviously we never discount completely something that is heading towards land but I am confident that it will not amount to much considering the hurdles it will have to over come. Obviously, we'll watch it just to be sure...

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Op woensdag 4 augustus 2010 11:23 schreef PeterDM het volgende:
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Heeft er ooit eens iemand berekent in welke intensiteit de TS elkaar opvolgen? Hiermee bedoel ik het gemiddelde aantal dagen die verstrijken tussen 2 stormen.

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WILL COLIN STRIKE BACK?
The NHC is giving the remnants of TS Colin a 40% of redevelopment. The computer models seem to suggest that it has a chance of making a comeback as it moves in to the western Atlantic over the next few days. Upper level winds could become more conducive for Colin to reorganize and develop a closed low level circulation center. Right now, it looks as though even if it were to stage a comeback that it would stay off the Southeast coast. Folks in Bermuda might have a brush with some inclement weather as the system goes by but that looks to be the extent of it. We'll see what happens over the next 48 hours especially- beyond that time, Colin does have a decent chance at becoming a tropical storm again.

The other area we're watching is in the Caribbean Sea. This too has some potential for development and impact the Yucatan peninsula. None of the models suggest anything really strong coming out of this feature. It could cross over the Yucatan and head for mainland Mexico by late in the weekend- bringing more rain to the region where Alex and TD 2 impacted earlier in the season. There is a lot to keep up with as August rolls on.

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'New Orleans rijker na Katrina'

De Amerikaanse stad New Orleans is vijf jaar na Katrina een stuk rijker dan ervoor. Belangrijkste reden hiervoor is dat de armen die destijds voor de orkaan vluchtten of nadien de stad uittrokken, niet meer zijn teruggekeerd.

Dat staat in een rapport van het gerenommeerde Brookings Institution en de Greater New Orleans Community Data Center, die een uitgebreid onderzoek deden naar hoe de stad er op dit moment voor staat. Volgens de cijfers bedraagt de armoede in New Orleans en omgeving 23 procent. Dat is het laagste percentage sinds 1979. Overigens is dat nog altijd veel hoger dan het landelijke gemiddelde van 13 procent in de VS.

Volgens het onderzoek zijn de lonen de laatste jaren omhoog gegaan en trekt de stad steeds meer goed betaalde banen in de kenniseconomie, in plaats van de laag betaalde industriële banen die traditioneel in New Orleans te vinden waren.

Verder is het bevolkingsaantal van New Orleans inmiddels weer op 90 procent van de 1,3 miljoen mensen die er voor Katrina woonden. De samenstelling is wel veranderd: de stad telt nu relatief meer middenklasse-inkomens en iets minder hispanics en zwarte Amerikanen. Toch blijven zwarten met 69 procent de overgrote meerderheid uitmaken van The Big Easy.
Doden

Op 29 augustus 2005 kwam orkaan Katrina aan land op de staatsgrens tussen Louisiana en Mississippi. Er vielen 1800 doden, de meesten in New Orleans doordat daar de dijken doorbraken en velen verdronken. Daarnaast waren er 300.000 ontheemden als gevolg van het noodweer.

De ramp kwam toenmalig president Bush op veel kritiek te staan omdat de federale overheid in de ogen van velen te langzaam reageerde. Katrina maakte bovendien duidelijk hoe arm en verpauperd New Orleans destijds was.

Maar vijf jaar later is de stad de weg omhoog weer ingeslagen, met betere banen, beter onderwijs en een uitgebreide dienstverleningssector, aldus het rapport.

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Op maandag 9 augustus 2010 20:16 schreef aloa het volgende:
Dat gebied in de Golf is nu 30%
Dat kan weleens wat gaan worden.
Warm water en weinig windshear.

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Zowel in het Atlantisch gebied als op de Stille Oceaan is het aantal tropische orkanen tot nu toe opvallend laag.

Het Atlantisch gebied heeft tot nu toe drie tropische stormen gehad waarvan er één is uitgegroeid tot een orkaan. De verwachting was dat die seizoen juist heel actief zou gaan verlopen. Een van de redenen voor het lage aantal orkanen in dit gebied zou kunnen zijn het er meer lagedrukgebieden in de bovenlucht actief zijn (upperlevel low). Hierdoor staat er meer wind in de hogere lagen van de troposfeer waardoor tropische systemen minder kans krijgen om zich te ontwikkelen. Verder bevindt zich er op hoogte veel droge lucht waardoor het ontstaan van buiencomplexen wordt afgeremd.

Het vrijwel ontbreken van tropische stormen in met name het westelijke deel van de Stille oceaan wordt mogelijk veroorzaakt door de huidige luchtdrukverdeling die veel extremen brengt op het oostelijk halfrond (Rusland, Pakistan, China en India) en de orkaanactiviteit onderdrukt.
(Weather Underground)

All of the major models continue to predict a major pattern shift in the global atmospheric circulation late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and start to the Cape Verdes hurricane season. Most of the models predict a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.

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GFS says possibly 2 more storms after Danielle coming off Africa in the next 7-10 days

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Tropical Storm Danielle formed as a tropical depression over the Atlantic Ocean on August 22, 2010. By the following day, Danielle had strengthened to a tropical Storm, and had the potential to become a hurricane by evening, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image of Tropical Storm Danielle at 9:15 a.m. AST (13:15 UTC) on August 23. Danielle boasts the apostrophe shape typical of tropical storms, although it lacks a distinct eye.
At 11:00 a.m. AST on August 23, 2010, the NHC reported that Danielle had maximum sustained winds of 65 miles (100 kilometers) per hour, and was expected to strengthen further over the next 48 hours. Danielle 1,025 miles (1,650 kilometers) west of Cape Verde.

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Steden trekken orkanen aan
Uit een nieuw wetenschappelijk onderzoek blijkt dat de textuur van een landschap de beweging van een storm beïnvloedt. Dit betekent dat huidige computermodellen aangepast moeten worden. “Hoge gebouwen in steden oefenen een grotere wrijving uit op de wervelende straalstroom”, zegt professor Johnny Chan van de universiteit van Hong Kong. “En tropische cyclonen worden door wrijving aangetrokken.”

Steden en bossen houden lucht vast. Hierdoor wordt de lucht gecomprimeerd en wordt het in de atmosfeer geduwd. De storm neemt zo in kracht toe. Daarnaast wordt het centrum van een orkaan naar steden en bossen getrokken. Een stad kan een orkaan tientallen kilometers van zijn pad laten afwijken.

Een kleine koerswijziging kan er al voor zorgen dat computermodellen falen. Daarom is het goed dat wetenschappers rekening houden met de textuur van een landschap.

Chan en zijn collega’s houden zich de komende tijd bezig met de ontwikkeling van een eigen computermodel. Zij proberen dit computermodel nog wat scherper te maken, waardoor de banen van orkanen in de toekomst nog beter voorspeld worden dan nu het geval is. Een toekomstig computermodel houdt niet alleen rekening met het terrein, maar ook met de rotatie van de aarde en de luchtvochtigheid.

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Op woensdag 25 augustus 2010 15:23 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Op de onderstaande link een schitterende High Resolution satellietloop van de orkaan Danielle. Er zit een interval op van 1 minuut.

WeerDirect

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Op woensdag 25 augustus 2010 23:03 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
inmiddels vier van de zes... is net geupdate

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Orkaan Frank eist levens in Mexico
Orkaan Frank heeft woensdag ten minste vier levens geëist in de Mexicaanse deelstaat Oaxaca in het zuidoosten van het land. Door hevige regenval liepen huizen onder, raakten wegen en bruggen beschadigd en liepen circa honderd dorpen in het gebied schade op. Dat berichtte de Amerikaanse nieuwszender CNN.

Frank, die windsnelheden veroorzaakt van ongeveer 120 kilometer per uur, trekt richting het noordwesten. De storm zal voorlopig niet aan land komen in de omgeving.

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Op zaterdag 28 augustus 2010 10:07 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Ik moet maar snel ticket boeken

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EARL
Earl is really starting to crank up. The pressure continues to fall as its organization improves. This is not unexpected and I hope that people in the path are ready for a rough night. As I mentioned in the post from earlier today, an intensifying hurricane packs more punch (this is our team's experience from personal observations) than one that is level or weakening. As far as pin-pointing exactly where Earl will track over the next 24 hours, it's tough to call as wobbles here and there could bring the core over a certain island or, conversely, keep it off. Why do they wobble? A lot of it has to do with a hurricane spinning like a top on a table (see the movie "Inception"?) and the axis seems to move around the common area of rotation. A hurricane's core bounces around inside the larger area of circulation and so we get the wobbles instead of a perfectly straight path. In any case, the area of the northern Caribbean Sea will experience quite a squally night with some areas actually receiving hurricane conditions.

The latest data indicates that Earl should miss Puerto Rico to the north. This is obviously good news for that island. But, we cannot be absolutely sure until the center has passed by. Heavy rains and windy conditions along with rough surf are a sure bet. The weather will improve by Tuesday.

As for a possible impact on the U.S.- the latest run of the global models from late this afternoon continue to suggest that Earl will remain just far enough off the East Coast to keep the worst weather off shore. We are talking still only a hundred miles or so and that meaning the difference in a breezy day with rain and possible hurricane force winds, tidal flooding and torrential rains. I think the key remains how strong the ridge of high pressure is between Earl and departing Danielle. If it holds firm or inflates some, like a large balloon, then it could easily push Earl more west and closer to the NC coast and then Cape Cod or Maine. Folks in Nova Scotia seem especially in the line of fire and now we're looking to see if Earl goes in to the Bay of Fundy (very bad) or skirts the coast to the southeast (much better). So still no conclusion as to what Earl will do in the end. I do expect that tonight's major global model run will yield more solid clues. I know it's tough to want to know what will happen in definitive terms, but it's not usually that easy.

FIONA
For those wondering about 97L and future Fiona, it is coming. The system is very large and is taking its own sweet time to develop. While you may think this is good news, it really isn't for the longer these enormous Cape Verde tropical waves take to develop, the farther west they usually track. This may be why the ECMWF model now shows it getting in to the Gulf of Mexico going past south Florida and over Cuba. I will address this more and more throughout the week but we need to keep a calm about ourselves and deal with Earl first. Fiona-to-be is not going to impact land for several days if at all. As is always the case, we will get more pieces to this complex puzzle with each passing model cycle. I will have another update here tomorrow morning by 10am ET (and yes, I plan to be on time with this one, sorry tonight's was later than I had planned. A lot is going on and I am trying to keep up).

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Op maandag 30 augustus 2010 09:01 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
dus footooo'sssssssssssss

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Op maandag 30 augustus 2010 13:52 schreef Stienn het volgende:

[..]

Nou maar ff een update. Het is hier nu 07:48. De kern van earl gaat het komende uur op iets van 50 km langs st. Maarten. Tot nu toe valt het heel erg mee heb ik het idee, heb de hele nacht in coma gelegen. De wind word wel steeds wat sterker.

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Fiona forms
Tropical Storm Fiona finally gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be given a name, but continues to struggle with dry air. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity comes and goes, and there are not many intense thunderstorms near the storm's center. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to increase to moderate, 10 - 15 knots, by Tuesday. Fiona is moving quickly to the west, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona, and probably arrest the storm's development. A scenario predicted by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy Fiona through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario, championed by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for Fiona to stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast early next week. At this point, it is difficult to choose between these two scenarios. History suggests that a storm in Fiona's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.