De Beursvloer #85: Waar MT door het stof gaat!

quote:

Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 13:04 schreef Mortaxx het volgende:
Citigroup Inc. may need to raise as much as $10 billion in new capital, according to people familiar with the matter, as the government continues negotiations with banks over the results of its so-called stress tests.

bron

quote:

Bolivia nationaliseert dochter BP

President Morales van Bolivia heeft
een dochterbedrijf van de Britse olie-
maatschappij BP genationaliseerd.Op een
1 mei-bijeenkomst tekende hij daarvoor
een decreet.Het bedrijf,dat brandstof
voor vliegtuigen levert,wordt door het
staatsoliebedrijf ingelijfd.Morales zei
dat hij met de eigenaren onderhandelen
zal over een schadeloosstelling.Morales
komt vaak met nationalisaties op 1 mei.

quote:

Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 13:40 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

De wereld verlinkst

quote:

Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 13:05 schreef TeringHenkie het volgende:

[..]

Als reactie op mijn mailtje of ze ooit intraday/historische optiegrafieken aan gaan bieden. Dat kan dan weer wel.

quote:

Shooting The Shoots

Posted by Tyler Durden at 2:36 PM
Friday, May 1, 2009

It’s time to set the record straight

We acknowledge that we have felt like salmon swimming upstream. And, we constantly preach that everyone should keep an open mind and about the dangers of being perma-bears at the low (not our intention!) – but it’s time to set the record straight.

Big money investors have been on the sidelines

We have talked to so many bewildered clients about the massive equity market rally from the March lows that we’ve lost count. Few, if any (especially in the hedge fund community) seem to be celebrating the fact that the S&P 500 has rallied 30%, which tells us that big-money investors have been on the sidelines through this entire move. From our lens – and you can see this clearly from the twice-monthly NYSE data – the buying power for this market has actually come from severe short-covering as the bears head for the hills.

Few market-makers share enthusiasm of most economists

We don’t really share the view that the recovery, if and when it comes, will be sustained. We understand the historical record that even in the face of monumental fiscal and monetary easing, it takes a good four years for the economy to work through the aftershocks of a collapse in credit and asset values. While most economists are now waving the pom-poms, we find very few marketmakers who share their enthusiasm.

By and large, this rally has been a clear technical event

Gaps get filled rapidly and the primary source of buying power seems to be coming from a huge short-squeeze, and perhaps some pension fund rebalancing, which always seems to happen after the market makes a new low. To be sure, there is always the chance that the dry powder (money on the sidelines) is put to work and investors chase this rally. And nothing says that the S&P 500 cannot go as high as the 200-day moving average of 970 over the near term. We have seen these kinds of rallies in the past There were four of these kinds of rallies from 1929 to 1932; a half-dozen in the 19-year-old Japanese bear phase; and no fewer than 40,000 rally points in the Nasdaq that were fun to play in the 2000-2003 bear market – but the fundamental downtrend was obviously still intact.

Stock market not good at predicting inflection points

The stock market bottomed for good in the spring of 2003 because at that time, we were on the cusp of a 4%+ real GDP growth rate over the ensuing four quarters. The reason the rally of late 2001 to early 2002 failed was because the market realized the recovery would be delayed. Let’s just say that a 21% rally in the S&P 500 from Sept 2001 to January 2002 was not a bounce that was pricing in a 1.5% GDP growth rate for the ensuing four quarters, which is what we ended up with.

We can look at the situation in reverse. Did the 20% slide in the S&P 500 in the summer accurately predict the 4-1/2% GDP growth trend we were going to see the following year? No. And even in this cycle, the equity market was peaking just as the recession started in the fourth quarter of 2007. So, this notion that the equity market is telling us anything meaningful about the economic outlook, as Larry Kudlow would have us believe, is open for debate. The stock market’s track record is just about as good as the economics community at predicting the inflection points in the business cycle – and that’s not very good.

The market, as a whole, cannot be considered cheap

While there are some good blue-chip companies trading at low multiples, the market as a whole can hardly be considered cheap. That may have been the case two months ago, but no longer. As for the earnings landscape, it has become fashionable to talk about how the vast majority of companies are beating estimates in their 1Q results, but the bar was set extremely low to begin with after that epic 4Q operating and reported loss on S&P 500 EPS. In the meantime, earnings forecasts are being trimmed steadily for the balance of the year. In fact, forward P/E multiple of 15x operating and 30x on reported EPS are not that compelling. So, we do not have a strong valuation argument. We do not have a strong earnings argument. The seasonals ("sell in May”) are about to become less compelling too.

New lows in S&P won’t happen as soon as we thought

We would, at the same time, acknowledge that if the terms of engagement have changed, the Obama economics team and the Fed have made it exceedingly difficult for the shorts to make money in this market. Tail risks, notably in terms of the banking system, have been removed. This, in turn, does mean that even if we break to new lows in the S&P 500, it probably will not happen as soon as we had thought.

Government will do whatever it takes

At the March 9 lows, there was a real feeling of possible bankruptcy in the financial system. But it is now abundantly clear the government will not allow any big financial institution to fail. The end of mark-to-market accounting rules and the super-steep yield curve have returned most of the banks to profitability. Uncle Sam can be relied on to remain the capital provider of last resort, even for those banks that do not pass the coming stress test (which has been delayed, in part because the government wants to assess how to deal with the fallout of those particular institutions). More and more taxpayer money is being thrown at the credit crisis, and now we hear that $50 billion will be allocated toward easing debt-service strains among those households that took on second mortgages during the housing bubble. And, until recently when the green shoots started to appear, there was growing talk of yet another fiscal blockbuster coming down the pike to underpin the economy.

Green shoots can turn into a dandelion or a beanstalk

We are more impressed with solid roots than we are with green shoots. The economy and the capital markets are being held together by tape and glue, in our view. Private sector activity is contracting and will continue to lose its share of GDP as the government’s influence rises on a secular basis. Tax rates will inevitably rise, as they are already doing at the state and local government level. The public sector is now involved in the mortgage market, the insurance sector, the banking industry, and of course, the automotive business.

Economy transforming into an early 1980s European model

As economists, strategists, analysts, and the media, focus on the noise – which is what green shoots really are: a blip in a fundamental downtrend – a dramatic transformation of the economy toward a 1970s/early 1980s European model is unfolding. That post-Mitterrand, pre-Thatcher model, if memory serves us correctly, was one of low-potential real GDP growth rates, low-fair-value P/E multiples, low rates of return on capital and a sclerotic economic system. Economy is not in free-fall but is hardly stabilizing.

Now let’s get to the economy and those fabled green shoots

There is no doubt that the economy is no longer in free-fall, but it is hardly stabilizing, even if the data have improved from deeply negative trends at the turn of the year. There are pundits claiming that because initial jobless claims have managed to come off their recent highs, the end of the recession is in sight. That is a fairy tale, in our opinion.

Slack still being built up in the labor market

Given the looming wave of auto sector layoffs, we expect claims to break to above 700,000 this summer, which would be a new record. So, jobless claims do not appear to have peaked yet. In fact, the relentless surge in continuing claims signals that an ever-increasing amount of slack is being built up in the labor market. There has never been a peaking out in gross claims without there being a confirmation from a similar turn in the continuing jobless claim data. Moreover, initial jobless claims have topped the 600,000 threshold now for 13 weeks in a row, and that is the real story.

To suggest that claims have stabilized above 600,000 and that this is a good thing is ridiculous. It would mean that by this time next year, the unemployment rate could potentially reach 15%. The reason is because employment losses do not end until claims actually break below 400,000. No recession ever ended until claims broke below 600,000, and on average, recessions only end once claims drop below 500,000 (when the last recession ended in November 2001, as an example, claims were 450,000).

Job losses will not end until the end of the year

Employment is one of the four critical ingredients that go into the recession call, not jobless claims, and at over 600,000 on claims, we lose payrolls at a monthly rate of around 600,000. That is hardly what we would call a stable economic backdrop. We do not see job losses ending before the end of the year. Industrial production and real manufacturing/trade sales are two other components that go into the NBER recession-determination model, and our forecast suggests that they too will not bottom conclusively until 2010.

Real organic personal income decrease is unprecedented

What really caught our eye is the fourth horseman of the recession call – real organic personal income. This metric peaked in October 2007 and was early in predicting the official onset of the recession, which began in December of that year. This measure of household income – it nets out government benefits – slipped 0.5% in March and has declined for five months in a row (and six of the past seven). Over that stretch, it declined at over a 6% annual rate, which is unprecedented (the data series go back to 1954).

Expect consumer spending to lag because of lost income

Since August of last year, the consumer sector has lost $266 billion of organic income (in nominal dollars at an annual rate) as job losses mounted, hours worked cut back, and full-time positions shifted to part-time. This lost income – not to mention $20 trillion of evaporated net worth – will likely bring long lags in dampening consumer discretionary spending. We realize that one of the bright spots in the 1Q GDP report was the +2.2% print on real consumer spending. But let’s face facts: The bounce was concentrated in January after a record 30% plunge in retail sales (at an annual rate) in the final three months of 2008. We already know that sales were down in both February and March and that the statistical handoff with respect to consumer spending is negative as we head into the second quarter.

The government does not create income; it redistributes it

We mentioned tape and glue above because the only component of household income that is rising is government transfers (mostly jobless benefits), which rose 0.9% in March and by more than 12% on a year-over-year basis. The government share of personal income at 16.3% is higher today than at any other time in the past six decades (and that covers the LBJ Great Society social benefit transfer of the 1960s). But keep in mind that the government does not create income – it distributes income by borrowing from today’s bondholders and tomorrow’s taxpayer. Not until we begin to see real incomes rise without the crutch of Uncle Sam’s checkbook will it be safe to call for the end of the recession. And again, we see this as more a 2010 story than a 2009 story, although very clearly the markets are suggesting the latter (insofar as they are signaling anything about the economic outlook).

The worst is over

In any event, the economy has certainly passed its worst point of the cycle even if we do not yet see the bottom that many others do at this time. And it may very well be that we overstayed our bearish call on the equity market and that the lows were turned in on March 9. Many pundits who have been around far longer seem to believe that, and they could be right. But there is no sense crying over spilled milk, even after a 30% run-up in the S&P 500 and a 100 basis point surge in the 10-year note yield from the lows. It just broke above its 200-day moving average, and there is nothing but empty space on the chart to 3.8% – that is an observation, not a forecast, by the way.

Lessons learned from the Great Depression

With all that in mind, we thought it would be instructive to look back to the experience of the 1930s. A credit collapse, asset deflation and massive decline in economic activity were finally stopped in their tracks by massive doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The S&P 500 bottomed in the summer of 1932 and the trough in GDP occurred shortly thereafter. But if history is any indication, the depression did not end for another nine years. Even after the massive relief efforts and government intervention from the New Deal, we closed the 1930s with a 15% unemployment rate and consumer prices deflating at a 2% annual rate.

Focus on SIRP — safety and yield at a reasonable price

Because the attention now has shifted to the green shoots, as was likely the case after the 1932 low as well, we highly recommend that investors focus on the big picture, which is that the aftershocks of a credit collapse and an asset deflation of this magnitude last for years, even with public sector support. Now go back to that June 1932 low in the S&P 500 (below 5) and the initial surge was breathtaking – the market roared ahead by 75% in just the first three months. But guess what? For buy-and-hold investors, by the end of 1941, the S&P 500 was at the same level as in the fall of 1932. Nine years of nothing, unless you are the most astute trader around.

Folks who chased the rally after the market broke out of the gate woefully underperformed those who stuck with their focus on generating cash flows from the fixed-income market. The yield on long Treasuries fell from 3.8% to 2.5% (Fall of 1932 to the end of 1941) while Baa corporates did even better – rallying from 7.1% to 4.4%. So from this point forward, unless you are comfortable that you have the discipline as to when to get out, the lesson of the last post-credit crunch/asset deflation/depression seven decades ago is to retain your focus on SIRP – safety and yield at a reasonable price. Passive buy-and-hold strategies are destined to fail, in our view.

quote:

Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 13:05 schreef TeringHenkie het volgende:

[..]

Als reactie op mijn mailtje of ze ooit intraday/historische optiegrafieken aan gaan bieden. Dat kan dan weer wel.

quote:

Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 13:50 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Idd, bij opties wil ik ook wel eens grafieken zien, maar die zijn nergens te krijgen. Fucking tyfuszooi.

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Dow 10,000 And More Irrational Exuberance

By: Marc Courtenay Friday, May 01, 2009 4:24 PM

As April 2009 comes to a close it is already appearing like the Wall Street "cheerleaders" and the business media are beginning to talk the stock market up again.

April was Wall Street's best month in nine years -- offering some questionable evidence yet that maybe, just maybe, the economy is about to begin a turnaround. Or maybe, investors will start piling into stocks and funds just as they are about to top out.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index, considered the most reliable measure of the broader market, climbed 9.4 percent in April, its best performance since March 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble. The Dow Jones industrial average shot up 7.4 percent in April, on top of a 7.7 percent gain in March.

"That's more than a relief for investors -- it's a potential economic indicator, because the stock market tends to get back on its feet before the economy does. In downturns over the past 60 years, the S&P hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment hit its peak", wrote Tim Paradis, a business writer for the Associated Press, in an article he wrote April 30th.

"The market is saying that the economy would hit its trough this summer," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis who has spent 50 years monitoring Wall Street.

He's the same market strategist who is famous for saying, "It's the snake you don't see that bites you." Right now every snake and snake oil salesman wants us to believe the market is going to go higher and higher from here. Maybe they are right, but are you willing to gamble some of your net worth that they are?

After months of being fed doomsday scenarios, investors are now starting to take a look at stock market utopia. In this utopia, bad news, like Wednesday's dismal GDP numbers, don't matter.

Here, housing prices stabilize, banks are resuscitated, corporations offer positive earnings guidance, and economic data points start showing signs that things are actually improving and aren't just less horrible than before.

A total fantasy land? Maybe not, say some experts who believe the market's best-case scenario isn't too shabby.

"I'm very impressed at how strong the market has been in the past several days. We've had every opportunity to sell off," says David Twibell, president of wealth management for Colorado Capital Bank in Denver. "Objectively, you've got to be somewhat surprised by that and certainly impressed.

"Are we really seeing a bottom in the market or a substantial bear market rally?" he adds. "This looks more and more like there are some real legs to this thing."

This kind of "irrational exuberance" as the absent-minded Maestro Greenspan used to call it, can be a harbinger of a short-lived and unexpected pull-back in the stock market followed by a huge move upward like we had between 1996-1999.

"Are we going to get back to 14,000 on the Dow this year? That is highly, highly, highly unlikely," says John Buckingham, chief investment officer at value-based Al Frank Asset Management in Laguna Beach, Calif. "But you have to be realistic. If stocks doubled in the next five years, that's a phenomenal return from here."

Most experts interviewed by CNBC.com in an article Thursday indicated that the Dow's best hope would be about 10,000 by year's end. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, is among those that have set a 1,000 target for the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index.

"Even then, such a move higher would reflect a 30 percent growth and come only under the most ideal conditions: Unemployment turning around, housing finally finding a bottom, a more positive earnings climate beyond the better-than-Armageddon results from the first quarter, and general signs of positivity from the economy in terms of production, inventory reduction and other key metrics."

Thursday's market action wasn't exactly proof that we're going to 10,000 before we retrace back to 7,500. But this market's ability to shrug off bad news and climb a wall of worry is very impressive and might last awhile longer.

All I can say is be ready to do some shopping this summer and fall if the mood on Wall Street sours for a few months. I can hardly wait to buy companies like NYX, EMC, CHK and COP when they get a bit deflated from their current levels.

quote:

In downturns over the past 60 years, the S&P hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended

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Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 15:37 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

http://www.istockanalyst.(...)le/articleid/3214907
[..]

Deze recessie is 9 juli voorbij .

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Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 15:47 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Ja zo gaat dat.
15 jaar excessen, een failliet bankensysteem, een verdubbelde staatsschuld over de komende paar jaar, consumenten die tot over hun oren in de schulden zitten en een economie die sneller daalt dan in The Great Depression. Dan print je even wat geld en dan is het allemaal alweer voorbij en leefde iedereen nog lang en gelukkig.

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Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 15:37 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

http://www.istockanalyst.(...)le/articleid/3214907
[..]

Deze recessie is 9 juli voorbij .

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Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 16:02 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

[..]

het lullige is dat het zomaar kan

Op fd.nl stond een tijdje geleden een aardig artikel van een auteur met de strekking dat aandelenkoersen het economische sentiment aanzwengelden, meer dan omgekeerd.

Doen fundamentals er eigenlijk nog wel aan toe in deze marketingsociety?

De crisis is dood, lang leve de volgende crisis

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Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 16:31 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Klopt wel, zo gaat de S&P op Thanksgiving ook altijd omhoog. Waarom? Om consumentenbestedingen kunstmatig te stimuleren!

Het consumentenvertrouwen lijkt ook al te stijgen door de hogere beurskoersen.

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Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 17:46 schreef dramatiek het volgende:

[..]

Ik denk dat dat causaal verband moeilijk aan te tonen is. De meeste consumenten zal het een rotzorg zijn hoe de beurskoersen erbij staan, ze weten niet eens hoe de koersen erbij staan.Zelfs nu met een vrij grote focus op de economie weet het merendeel helemaal niet of de koersen deze week gestegen of gedaald zijn. Sommige mensen leven natuurlijk in een andere wereld dan de volgers.

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Op zaterdag 2 mei 2009 13:40 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

De wereld verlinkst

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 09:48 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://xandernieuws.punt.nl/?id=514697&r=1&tbl_archief=&

'De ultieme Depressie-overlevingsgids' bestseller in VS
Boek 'Conquer the Crash' nog pessimistischer: 'Ergste ineenstorting in 300 jaar komt eraan' - 'Dow Jones naar minder dan 1000 punten'

Kijk, dat zien we graag .

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 09:48 schreef pberends het volgende:

Boek 'Conquer the Crash' nog pessimistischer: 'Ergste ineenstorting in 300 jaar komt eraan' - 'Dow Jones naar minder dan 1000 punten'

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 09:55 schreef dramatiek het volgende:

[..]

Als het zo slecht wordt, laat ik mijn primitieve impulsen de vrije loop.........Dan ga ik gewoon in mijn blote bast de veluwe op om te jagen

Jim Rogers you should start an agricultural business 25 mar 2009

Economic Apocalypse!!!!! Gerald Celente on Glenn Beck 02-10-09

quote:

Stanasolovich: Short Oil, Long Gold

Written by HardAssetsInvestor.com
Friday, 01 May 2009 09:27

Louis Stanasolovich, one of the top advisers in America, offers his latest views on the market. It isn't pretty.

HardAssetsInvestor.com (HAI): Given all that's transpired over the past year, and given the state of the economy, should investors have exposure to commodities in their portfolios?

Louis Stanasolovich (Stanasolovich): Looking 10 years out, the answer is an unequivocal yes. In the short run, though, it's anybody's guess. That's why we use the Direxion Commodity Trends Strategy Fund (DXCTX), which tracks the S&P Commodity Trends Indicator. It uses a long/short approach. That worked very well last year; this year it's not working so well, so far. But that could change.

HAI: There's a great debate raging right now over inflation/deflation and gold. What do you think the outlook for gold looks like, both in the short and long term?

Stanasolovich: Again, we think that long term - probably starting a couple years out - most currencies around the world will start to have problems, because so many governments have debased their currencies by taking out so many loans. And when you see currencies debased, especially on a global basis, that's a good time for gold.

We have bought gold and are buying gold on any weakness. We bought at the $880/ounce level. We'll continue to purchase a little here and there if prices continue to drop.

HAI: Do you have a target allocation for gold? Is there a point where investors have too much gold in their portfolios? Or not enough?

Stanasolovich: For us it depends on price. We believe we will soon enter an inflationary period ... but only if we don't go into deflation first, which is also a risk. But the truth is that gold has historically worked pretty well in deflationary periods as well as inflationary periods.

In the 1930s - the last deflationary period - gold had a very, very big move. The next big move was in the 1970s, when we had high inflation. And then we had a big move in the last few years as inflation picked up again.

Gold is a panic asset too, and it seems like a lot of the world's money is in a panic, so that bodes well for gold as well. The only period in which gold doesn't do well is during a period of low inflation.

So the short answer to your question is "no," we don't have a set maximum on gold exposure. If gold goes back to $400/ounce, we might have 15% of our portfolio in gold.

HAI: Do you ever take positions in commodity-producing stocks - say, gold miners - as opposed to the commodities themselves?

Stanasolovich: When gold went to $880/ounce, we bought 1% GLD [the SPDR Gold ETF, a bullion-based fund] and 1% in the First Eagle Gold Fund [SGGDX]. First Eagle has had a very, very good period. They own gold bullion in the fund, but mostly, they own gold mining stocks. Over the last 12-15 years, gold bullion has done better generally than gold mining stocks. But there are times when gold stocks have done well, so we decided to own both at this time.

HAI: What about oil? What's your outlook for oil prices, which have been, to say the least, extraordinarily volatile recently?

Stanasolovich: Long term, energy is going significantly higher. Last year's prices will look timid in 10 years. Could we have $300 oil? Yes, by 2022. Unless we as a world population start moving very quickly to alternative fuels in a very big way, we think oil could be $300/barrel easily.

In the short term, however, it all depends on the economy. Quite frankly, I'm surprised oil is as high as it is, given how inventories are stacking up. I think we'll see oil take off again at some point here, but currently, we are shorting oil in our most aggressive portfolios. We'll take those shorts off once we get down to $30/barrel.

HAI: Short oil? That's pretty bold.

Stanasolovich: We just don't see oil rising a whole lot right now. Technically, per energy unit burned, natural gas is cheaper. And we just don't see oil making a big charge upward any time soon. If anything, we see it lower. So we have a very small position in terms of oil shorts at this point, and only for our most aggressive portfolios.

HAI: Do you think that natural gas could finally get up off the floor?

Stanasolovich: It could. It depends on oil. If oil surges, I'm sure natural gas will move quickly.

HAI: What about the economy in general? Are we through the worst of it, or is there further to go?

Stanasolovich: Valuations are low on the stock market, but we're not anywhere near the worst valuations historically. The market would have to go down another 50% for that to occur. Does that mean we'll go down another level? No, it doesn't. However, the earnings that are coming out are highly suspect. Many banking institutions have earnings that are accounting-generated in a lot of cases. A good evidence of that is Citibank, which came up with a $2.4 billion accounting charge and is now trying to raise capital.

It just confirms that this severe recession still has a ways to go, particularly with the option-ARM mortgages and the Alt-A mortgages that are coming due and have to reset. That plus the existing problems of other mortgages ... well, the mountain of resets is actually bigger than it was in subprime. So we expect more difficulty for financial institutions, plus housing dropping an additional 20% in terms of price, as inventories go up. The scary part could be if the Federal Reserve has to raise interest rates because people stop buying our Treasury securities. That will cause homeowners to pay even higher rates, which they can't afford.

It doesn't look good in our opinion. We see about a 70% chance that the economy gets worse, and a 30% chance that it gets better. If the economy continues to deteriorate, we believe we'll see at least a sideways market, if not a declining market. I don't see a 50% decline, but I do see the potential for a 20-25% drop. I think there's a good chance we'll retest the March lows.

HAI: Aside from gold, where are you finding opportunity?

Stanasolovich: Managed futures, long/short commodities, long/short equities. We think there's some limited opportunity in government agency-type securities. TIPS have largely run up already, so we are not excited about them. Corporate and municipals will at some point be very attractive to us, but we think it's premature at this point. Junk bonds will be attractive, but again, not yet.

Also, other currencies, especially emerging market currencies, will look attractive over the next 3-5 years. But we're not entering into positions there yet, either. There's still a ways to go.

Really, we're not overly bullish on anything. This year, there's probably 10% upside, tops, on anything, across the board.

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:07 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

Volgens Jim Rogers is het beste een huisje met veel grond vinden en zelf je voedsel verbouwen

Jim Rogers you should start an agricultural business 25 mar 2009

Economic Apocalypse!!!!! Gerald Celente on Glenn Beck 02-10-09

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:13 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Alleen wordt die grond door de staat geconfisceerd als het allemaal echt zo slecht wordt.

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:07 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

Jim Rogers you should start an agricultural business 25 mar 2009

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:13 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Alleen wordt die grond door de staat geconfisceerd als het allemaal echt zo slecht wordt.

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:02 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Ik heb dat boek al sinds 2003 ofzo
Het stamt nog van de vorige bubble en wordt steeds geupdate.

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:20 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

[..]

Ik denk dat het druk gaat worden bij die first amendment gekken in North Dakota (of South Dakota). Die zijn waarschijnlijk al munitievoorraden aan het opbouwen

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:15 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

nee hoor, ik heb aan een hectare in Hongarije genoeg om van te leven
geld omruilen voor goudstukjes van 10 gr en klaar
http://www.amsterdamgold.com/

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 09:48 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://xandernieuws.punt.nl/?id=514697&r=1&tbl_archief=&

'De ultieme Depressie-overlevingsgids' bestseller in VS
Boek 'Conquer the Crash' nog pessimistischer: 'Ergste ineenstorting in 300 jaar komt eraan' - 'Dow Jones naar minder dan 1000 punten'

Kijk, dat zien we graag .

quote:

'Conquer the Crash': Dow Jones naar minder dan 1000 punten?

Bob Prechter van 'The Elliot Wave Theorist', een toonaangevende marktanalyse firma die dit jaar haar 30ste verjaardag viert, is véél pessimistischer over het verloop van de Depressie dan Martin Weiss. 'Lezers vragen me soms of ik het serieus meen, als ik schrijf dat de Dow Jones uiteindelijk tot onder de 1000 punten zal zakken,' schrijft Prechter. 'Men kan nog begrijpen dat de Dow in termen van goud zal dalen, maar ze zijn zó overtuigd dat er hyperinflatie komt, dat ze het idee dat de nominale Dow (in dollar termen) tot onder de 1000 punten zakt, gewoonweg niet reëel vinden.'

'De belangrijkste reden waarom ik geloof dat de Dow zo diep zal zakken, is de Elliott Golf structuur van de index, die zo'n daling vereist. Maar ik zie ook een monetaire reden voor zo'n gebeurtenis. De gigantische inflatie van de afgelopen 76 jaar is hoofdzakelijk door het verstrekken van krediet ontstaan, niet door bankbiljetten. En krediet kan imploderen.'

'Volgens de Elliott Golf structuur is het enige logische monetaire resultaat dat de marktwaarde van dollar-gedomineerd krediet met meer dan 90% zal krimpen. Gezien de afgekalfde staat van kapitaalgoederen in de VS en de leegloop van de produktiecapaciteit, is het niet moeilijk in te zien waarom al deze IOU's (schuldpapieren) een verslechterende terugbetalingsbasis hebben.'

'De toekomst is al verpand; de tijd om te betalen is aangebroken. Maar er is geen geld om mee te betalen, alleen maar nog meer IOU's, die eveneens niet terugbetaald kunnen worden. Dus de kredietvoorziening zal, na een korte opleving, blijven krimpen, wat betekent dat de welvaart, en daardoor de koopkracht, tegelijkertijd zullen verdwijnen. In de breedste zin van het woord zal deze verandering het instorten van de 'geldvoorraad' betekenen.'

'Een dergelijke monetaire situatie stemt overeen met het zakken van de Dow Jones naar minder dan 1000 punten (in nominale termen). Het is één van de redenen waarom mijn boek 'Conquer the Crash' (Overwin de Ineenstorting) de ondertitel 'Hoe overleef ik en profiteer ik van de Deflatoire Depressie'. De Centrale Bank heeft welliswaar de mogelijkheid om bankbiljetten te drukken, maar ik verwacht dat de uiteindelijke implosie zó snel zal zijn, dat de authoriteiten geen tijd zullen hebben om tegenmaatregelen te nemen. Ze zullen blijven proberen de ficties van de volledige waarde van IOU's vast te houden, totdat ze, in hun poging om dit bedrog vol te houden, spectaculair zullen falen. Pas dan zullen ze het werkelijk willen aanpakken, maar dan zal het te laat zijn.' Pretcher voorspelt dan ook de 'meest intense ineenstorting in bijna 300 jaar.'

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:25 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

[..]Ik denk dat je als asielzoeker met goud daar ongeveer op dag 2 met goedkeuring van de gehele gemeenschap, de overheid en zijn broer een mes tussen je ribben krijgt.
Je bent vogelvrij in een wereld waar de enige regel het recht van de sterkste is.

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:32 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

JIj bent daar nooit geweest he.

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:32 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

JIj bent daar nooit geweest he.

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 11:23 schreef edwinh het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]
Many investors are looking to the early 1930s for some insight into the current economic/stock market environment. While there are significant differences (global economy, credit default swaps, TARP, FDIC, etc.) between the current environment and that what occurred in the early 1930s, there are also many similarities (bank failures, bankruptcies, severe market declines, etc.). After all, history may not repeat but it often does rhyme. For some perspective on the current stock market rally that began on March 9th, today's chart illustrates the duration (calendar days) and magnitude (percent gain) of all significant Dow rallies that occurred during the 1929-1932 bear market (solid blue dots). For example, the bear market rally that began in October 1931 lasted 35 calendar days and resulted in a gain of 35%. As today's chart illustrates, the current Dow rally (hollow blue dot labeled you are here) is slightly below average in both duration and magnitude relative to the average 1929-1932 bear market rally (hollow red dot).

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 10:23 schreef SeLang het volgende:

[..]

Serieus, ik begin die gasten steeds beter te begrijpen.

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 12:24 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Ik ook idd, Obama heeft al voor een run op wapens gezorgd.

quote:

Nadat hij adviseur was voor president Bill Clinton (1993-1998), werkte hij als managing director voor de, inmiddels opgeheven, investeringsbank Wasserstein Perella. Dankzij zijn politieke connecties realiseerde hij daar een aantal grote deals. In 2001 werd de bank verkocht en kreeg Emanuel 16,2 miljoen dollar mee.

In 2000 en 2001 was hij lid van de Board of Directors voor Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). Freddie Mac werd toen geplaagd door schandalen over campagne-bijdragen en allerlei onregelmatigheden. In 2001 stapte hij hier op om zich te richten op zijn race voor een plaats in het Congres. De financiële industrie stopte meer dan 1,5 miljoen dollar in zijn campagnes. In het Congres was hij lid van Financial Services Committee, die gaat over wetgeving inzake financiële markten en banken.[1]

quote:

Buffett Dismisses Government Stress Tests, Praises Wells Fargo

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett dismissed the importance of the government stress tests in helping him assess banks, and said Wells Fargo & Co. will prosper no matter what the results show.

“I think I know their future, frankly, better than somebody that comes in to take a look,” Buffett said yesterday of the bank stocks that Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire owns. Regulators “may be using more of a checklist-type approach.”

The stress tests are designed to show whether 19 top financial firms need more capital to withstand a deterioration of economic conditions, and results are expected to be disclosed on May 7, according to a government official familiar with the plan. Buffett said he judges banks by their “dynamism” and their ability to attract deposits, and singled out San Francisco-based Wells Fargo as a “fabulous” company.

“If you look at Coca-Cola today, for example, and just looked at a balance sheet, it wouldn’t tell you anything at all about Coca-Cola,” the billionaire investor said in a Bloomberg Television interview before Berkshire’s annual meeting at Omaha’s Qwest Center. “It’s what the product is.”

Wells Fargo is Berkshire’s second-largest holding by market value after Coca-Cola Co. and the biggest bank on the U.S. West Coast. Berkshire also owns stakes in Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, as well as U.S. Bancorp, M&T Bank Corp. and SunTrust Banks Inc. Buffett has praised Wells Fargo for gathering funds at a low cost and taking fewer lending risks than competitors.

Competitive Advantages

“All banks aren’t alike by a long shot, and in our view Wells Fargo, among the large banks, has some advantages the others do not,” Buffett said at Berkshire’s annual meeting.

Wells Fargo has declined 33 percent this year on the New York Stock Exchange on concern the bank will take losses on loans acquired with the purchase of Wachovia Corp. The bank slashed its dividend 85 percent in March, reducing investment income for Berkshire.

Wells Fargo stock closed at $19.61 May 1 after falling below $9 in March. Buffett said he was speaking to a class the day the shares dropped that low and told students that, at such a price, “If I had to put all of my net worth into stock, that would be the stock.”

U.S. banks can’t be viewed indiscriminately, Buffett said, citing “real differences,” such as varying costs of funding, that separate strong lenders from their weaker rivals. Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo have “lots of equity,” he said. All three are among the companies on the stress test list.

Record Attendance

The annual meeting gave Buffett and Vice Chairman Charles Munger a platform to discuss markets, the economy and Berkshire’s businesses. A record 35,000 people filled the Qwest Center arena, its overflow rooms and a ballroom at a hotel across the street as the two fielded questions concerning Buffett’s replacement, Berkshire’s investments and its derivative bets on the world’s stock markets.

Berkshire, with a U.S. stock portfolio of $51.9 billion, has been pressured as equity markets dropped and U.S. unemployment rose to its highest in 25 years. Berkshire shares have plunged 31 percent in the past 12 months, and profit has fallen in five-straight quarters through the end of 2008 on deteriorating results at insurance units and liabilities from the derivatives.

Earnings Slump

Buffett said yesterday that first-quarter operating earnings fell to about $1.7 billion from $1.9 billion in the same period a year earlier. The figure, which doesn’t count some investment results, declined as the recession weighed on Berkshire businesses that make building materials and sell jewelry and furniture.

Utilities and insurance operations fared better, with Berkshire’s Geico Corp., the third-largest auto insurer in the U.S., adding about 505,000 new policyholders in the first four months of the year, Buffett said.

Buffett said that book value, a measure of assets minus liabilities, declined in the first quarter, in part because of losses on derivatives the firm sold on corporate debt. Those losses have since partially reversed, he said. Berkshire is scheduled to release complete results, including a figure for net income, on May 8.

Buffett and Munger have used recent meetings to promote Berkshire as a buyer of non-U.S. businesses and distinguish their operations from what they consider the sometimes reckless behavior they see on Wall Street. Their pronouncements reach shareholders, potential customers and ratings firms.

Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings cut Berkshire’s top AAA credit rating in the last two months, a move that “has no economic impact” on Berkshire, Buffett said in the interview before the meeting began.

“It just doesn’t,” he said. “We don’t use borrowed money in any real significant sense. My pride may be wounded just a bit.”

quote:

Buffett Says He Sees ‘No Signs’ of Recovery in Housing, Retail[/b]

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, the chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said he’s seen no indication of recovery from the real estate slump that helped cause the U.S. recession.

“There’s no signs of any real bounce at all in anything to do with housing, retailing, all that sort of thing,” said Buffett, 78, in a Bloomberg Television interview before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company’s annual shareholder meeting today. “You never know for sure, even if there’s a leveling off, which way the next move will be.”

Paul Volcker, one of President Barack Obama’s economic advisers, said this week that the economy was “leveling off at a low level” and doesn’t need a second fiscal stimulus package after the $787 billion plan signed by Obama in February. The U.S. economy contracted at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, weaker than forecast, making this recession the worst since 1957-1958.

quote:

Beursweek in teken van bedrijven en stresstest

UTRECHT (ANP) - De komende beursweek staat opnieuw in het teken van bedrijfsresultaten, waarbij de effecten van de economische recessie bij de meeste bedrijven zichtbaar zullen zijn. Ook de financiële sector zal in de belangstelling staan met de Amerikaanse stresstest voor banken voor de deur.

De week begint met de eerstekwartaalresultaten van post- en pakketjesvervoerder TNT. In de belangstelling staan vooral de tanende postvolumes van het concern en de cao-gesprekken die het bedrijf momenteel voert. Analisten gaan er in doorsnee van uit dat de winst met bijna 60 procent is gedaald tot 73 miljoen euro. De omzet loopt naar verwachting terug met 8,3 procent tot 2,5 miljard euro.

Supermarktketen Ahold maakt woensdag alleen omzetcijfers bekend. Het concern slaat zich tot nu toe kranig door de recessie heen. Vorig jaar wist Ahold zijn resultaten flink op te schroeven. Topman John Rishton was begin maart vol vertrouwen over dit jaar, maar waagde zich toen niet aan een concrete verwachting. Wel voorzag Rishton in april groei van het aantal Albert Heijn-winkels in Nederland.

Donderdag staan de kwartaalresultaten van voedingsmiddelenconcern Unilever en ingenieursbureau Arcadis op het programma.

Naast bedrijfscijfers krijgen beleggers ook meer inzicht in de stand van de Amerikaanse economie. Dinsdag informeert voorman Ben Bernanke van de Federal Reserve, het stelsel van Amerikaanse centrale banken, het Amerikaanse Congress daarover. Vorige week bleek dat de economie in het land volgens eerste ramingen in de eerste drie maanden van dit jaar met 6,1 procent gekrompen was. Dat is bijna even slecht als de drie voorgaande maanden, toen de economie met 6,3 procent kromp.

Op donderdag wordt naar verwachting een Amerikaanse stresstest voor banken gepubliceerd. Bij de test werd bekeken of de banken het in een verslechterde economie zouden redden zonder extra kapitaal aan te hoeven trekken. Financieel analisten denken dat sommige banken extra geld nodig hebben. Een van die partijen zou Citigroup zijn, meldde The Wall Street Journal op basis van anonieme bronnen. Citigroup heeft mogelijk 10 miljard dollar nodig en voert volgens de bronnen gesprekken hierover met de Fed.

Een belangrijk macrocijfer dat de beurzen komende week kan beïnvloeden, is een Amerikaans banencijfer over april. Analisten rekenen erop dat er in die maand meer dan 600.000 banen verloren zijn gegaan. De werkloosheid zou volgens schattingen omhoog zijn gegaan naar 8,9 procent. Uit Europa komen detailhandelsomzetten en producentenprijzen over maart. Het CBS maakt onder meer de bezettingsgraad van de Nederlandse industrie over april bekend.

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 18:16 schreef pberends het volgende:
- de huidge rally op een eindfase loopt
- de bear market nog vele jaren gaat duren
- dat het proces van deleveraging nog veel langer doorgaat:

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 18:20 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/193499

Leuke artikel die zich tegen de nieuwe bullmarket in commodities spreekt.

quote:

fears over resource nationalization (independent oil firms now control only 20 percent of global reserves)

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 18:16 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://businessclass.i-s.nl/businessclass/3_mei_2009.wmv

Rienk Kamer vandaag bij Business Class (ongeveer op 2/3 van de uitzending), hij zegt dat;

[ afbeelding ]

- de huidge rally op een eindfase loopt
- de bear market nog vele jaren gaat duren
- dat het proces van deleveraging nog veel langer doorgaat:

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 19:02 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:
Waar trouwens het artikel m.i. de plank misslaat is dat ze onderschatten hoezeer met name de Chinezen investeringen in commodities als een strategische investering beschouwen, die niet zozeer binnen 5 jaar moet renderen, maar juist over een periode van 50 jaar of langer.

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 19:03 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

[..]

Rienk heeft natuurlijk een geweldig betrouwbare track record

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 19:22 schreef pberends het volgende:

Peter Schiff: Why College Tuitions Are So Expensive

Peter Schiff legt uit waarom studeren in de VS zo monsterlijk duur is (door de leningen van de overheid).

Hij zegt dat de aanbieder WEET dat men bijna gratis leningen kan krijgen van de overheid. Zelfde strekking zou je kunnen stellen op de Nederlandse woningmarkt.

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 19:14 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Bedoel je dat ironisch of niet?

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 20:09 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

[..]

waar kan ik zo'n gratis lening aanvragen dan?
[..]

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Op zondag 3 mei 2009 20:28 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

Een vriendin van mijn vrouw woont in Seatlle en heeft 45.000 dollar geleend voor een studie psychologie
Ze vraagt zich dus niet af hoe je dat terugbetaald, zou me niets verbazen als Europese banken ook zulke leningen hebben opgekocht

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 20:28 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

Een vriendin van mijn vrouw woont in Seatlle en heeft 45.000 dollar geleend voor een studie psychologie
Ze vraagt zich dus niet af hoe je dat terugbetaald, zou me niets verbazen als Europese banken ook zulke leningen hebben opgekocht

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 09:01 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:
Resultaten van TNT vielen erg tegen, toch omhoog Hebben ze een positieve verwachting uitgesproken of zo?

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 09:15 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Ik snap de belegger de laatste tijd wel vaker niet. Kan aan mij liggen.

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 09:08 schreef pberends het volgende:
Jeeeeeeej, ik heb m'n shorts verkocht met 70 euro verlies. Ik vertrouw dit weer voor geen enkele meter.

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 10:05 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:

[..]

Denk dat Kees wel gelijk heeft. "De kleinste meevaller wordt meteen opgeblazen tot epische proporties en de overstromingen aan slecht nieuws wordt gemarginaliseerd tot een overlopend glas water"

(vrij naar Kees de Kort)

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 10:12 schreef bleiblei het volgende:

[..]

Aan de andere kant zijn er een hoop dooie lijken al uit de kast gevallen en wordt er met veel tegenvallende cijfers al rekening gehouden na de crash van een aantal maanden geleden.

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 10:05 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:

[..]

Denk dat Kees wel gelijk heeft. "De kleinste meevaller wordt meteen opgeblazen tot epische proporties en de overstromingen aan slecht nieuws wordt gemarginaliseerd tot een overlopend glas water"

(vrij naar Kees de Kort)

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 10:33 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

. Zoiets ja.

Ik blijf het een absurde rally vinden, zonder enige noemenswaardige correctie (dan heb ik het even over de S&P). De S&P zou op zijn minst moeten corrigeren naar 800-810 punten. Het liefst naar de 741-775 punten.

Ik zie de AEX in juli ook ruim genomen op 275-325 punten staan, maar zit nog steeds te wachten op een correctie (die misschien wel nooit komt). Toch is de AEX wat achtergebleven op andere indexen, dus het shorten op de AEX blijft link.

De reden waarom ik toch niet long ga is omdat het bullish sentiment imho op zijn einde loopt:

[ afbeelding ]

Nog even en we zitten op de 70%, wat bijna altijd tot een selloff leidt.

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 10:17 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:

[..]

Als ik Kees en mijn gevoel moet geloven, komt er nog veel meer ellende de kast uit vallen. De banken zijn "safe" door het hele Mark to Fantasy gebeuren. De rest van de economie moet echter wel de waarheid vertellen in de publicaties.

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 10:35 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:

[..]

AEX is 11% gestegen in April, en de rest?

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 10:55 schreef Lemans24 het volgende:
Mittal stijgt ook weer 10% op basis van niks?

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 11:11 schreef UncleSam het volgende:
De TT is met dat rare Mittal ook al verouderd.

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 11:17 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:
Om 11:30 is er een persconferentie van de EU over de vooruitzichten. Deze is hier live te volgen.

quote:

Op zondag 3 mei 2009 20:28 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

Een vriendin van mijn vrouw woont in Seatlle en heeft 45.000 dollar geleend voor een studie psychologie
Ze vraagt zich dus niet af hoe je dat terugbetaald, zou me niets verbazen als Europese banken ook zulke leningen hebben opgekocht

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 11:41 schreef Mendeljev het volgende:

[..]

Snel wat deep-in-the-money puts kopen!

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 11:43 schreef edikt het volgende:

[..]

waarom niet out-of-the money dan

quote:

Aprilmaand zag nooit meer faillissementen
04-05-2009 12:50:12

Brussel (tijd) - In de voorbije maand april gingen er 804 bedrijven over de kop, zo blijkt maandag uit cijfers van onderzoeksbureau Graydon. Daarmee is de voorbije maand de zwaarste aprilmaand ooit. Daarenboven wordt nu voor de zesde maand op rij het maandrecord gebroken.

April telde 12,13 procent meer faillissementen dan in april 2008, toen ook al een aprilrecord. 'Over de eerste vier maanden van dit jaar tellen we nu 3.374 faillissementen, een stijging ten opzichte van dezelfde periode verleden jaar met 23,09 procent', klinkt het in een persbericht.

Het vorige record over een dergelijke periode stamt van 2004 toen 2.831 bedrijven over de kop gingen. Daardoor gingen tijdens de eerste vier maanden van dit jaar 8.846 jobs verloren als direct gevolg van het faillissement van de werkgever

De faillissementenstijging is zaak van alle sectoren. Binnen de wereld van de zakelijke dienstverlening zijn er van januari tot einde april zelfs de helft méér faillissementen dan verleden jaar. De bouwnijverheid telt 29 procent meer bedrijven die over de kop gingen, de transportsector kende een stijging met 28,8 procent. Zowel binnen de Horeca als binnen de sector van de groothandelaars werden bijna 21 procent meer faillissmenten genoteerd dan verleden jaar.

Uitgesplitst naar gewest, was de stijging het grootste in Vlaanderen met 30 procent meer uitspraken dan over dezelfde periode verleden jaar. Wallonië kende een stijging met ruim 25 procent, Brussel steeg met 5,7 procent.

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 12:51 schreef Mendeljev het volgende:
Nyrstar 5.45 (+10.75) 30% over 3 dagen. Wat een aandeel

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 13:02 schreef pberends het volgende:
Gewoon pure shortcovering vanochtend. De Dow futures stonden al de hele tijd stabiel in de plus.

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 13:10 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:

[..]

shortcovering?

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 13:15 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Beleggers die hun shortposities terugkopen.

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Op maandag 4 mei 2009 13:26 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:

[..]

Maar dat heeft toch precies het omgekeerde effect als dat je wil? Als je short zit iig... toch?

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 13:33 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

[..]

Als je denkt dat het omhoog gaat wil je er natuurlijk zo snel mogelijk van af he

quote:

Op maandag 4 mei 2009 14:22 schreef dramatiek het volgende:
ik zie de boel niet meer dalen. Nieuws blijft ronduit shit en de beurs stijgt maar door.....
Als in de US vandaag geen sterke reactie op het nieuws is (citi+BoA) dan verwacht ik dat de 7de eigenlijk ook niet. Vraag me af welk nieuws moet komen om de boel weer fors te laten zakken