Amerikaanse Presidentsverkiezingen #60 - November Surprise?

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 10:39 schreef Wheelgunner het volgende:

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Ok, maar ik heb het idee dat Hannity en O'Reilly verder ook niet compleet oprecht zijn in hun meningen. Het is een rol die ze spelen voor hun publiek.

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Op vrijdag 31 oktober 2008 23:20 schreef Caesu het volgende:
vrijheid van meningsuiting
en ze wordt Paylin genoemd daar.
elk verband met Palin berust op toeval.

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Trick or Treat
^{Friday, October 31, 2008}

Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 10:57 schreef Halcon het volgende:
Dat zeker. Iedereen is overtuigd van een landslide victory van Obama, maar ik moet het nog zien.

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The thrust of the McCain campaign, especially for the past month, has been that Barack Obama is evil and scary: a metrosexual cosmopolitan celebrity who wants to molest your children while his terrorist friends plot to kill you and his homeboy welfare chiselers from ACORN steal elections so they can then steal your money. Now, four days before the election, McCain shows the voters Obama "reaching across the aisle" to praise his rival in his best calm, reasonable, thoughtful tone.

What am I missing here? Is Steve Schmidt in the tank?

http://www.samefacts.com/(...)ical_malpractice.php

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:01 schreef nummer_zoveel het volgende:

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Inderdaad. Ik denk dat McCainn gaat winnen, maar ik hoop op Obama.
Maar de voorsprong van Obama is niet zo groot, wat iemand al zei: straks gaan veel mensen die denken dat hij toch wel gaat winnen uit luiheid niet naar de stembus, of worden veel twijfelaars toch over de streep getrokken om op McCainn te gaan stemmen.
Het kan nog alle kanten opgaan.

Verder zie ik Obama niet als een of andere Godheid die alle problemen op gaat lossen, als je die speeches van hem ziet en mensen die tranen met tuiten huilen om hoe geweldig hij niet is en dat ie de man is die de VS nodig heeft denk ik toch:
Maar ja, ben dan ook een nuchtere Hollandse.

Onvoorstelbaar dat wij een minister-presidentskandidaat zo zullen aanbidden.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:01 schreef nummer_zoveel het volgende:

Onvoorstelbaar dat wij een minister-presidentskandidaat zo zullen aanbidden.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:01 schreef nummer_zoveel het volgende:

Maar de voorsprong van Obama is niet zo groot, wat iemand al zei: straks gaan veel mensen die denken dat hij toch wel gaat winnen uit luiheid niet naar de stembus

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:03 schreef Halcon het volgende:

Mocht Obama winnen, dan wordt het de slechtste president ooit denk ik. Mensen zien hem als een soort verlosser, met het betwetende Europa voorop. Hij gaat het nooit waar kunnen maken.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:06 schreef Googolplexian het volgende:

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Slechter dan Bush kan gewoon niet puur om het feit dat Obama meer dan één hersen heeft.
Het wordt tijd dat er weer eens een president in het Witte Huis komt op basis van verstandelijk vermogen i.p.v. hoe invloedrijk de vriendjes van je pa zijn.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:08 schreef Halcon het volgende:

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Gaaaaaaaap. Je weet best dat Obama er niets van gaat bakken, dus ga je maar even Bush-bashen. Iets te kort door de bocht.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:10 schreef Googolplexian het volgende:

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Oja ... jij was die kloon

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PIPER PALIN: We start at, like, 9:00 o'clock, when it's, like, midnight and we ...

GOV. SARAH PALIN: True. I love your concept of time. It's nonexistent. That's so nice. Yes.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/1/42832/3024/198/635429

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:11 schreef Halcon het volgende:

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Beetje zeuren over FOX, zeiken over Bush en aan je ondermaatse piemel trekken terwijl je een Obama-bericht leest.... tot zover de inhoudelijke analyse van de doorsnee Nederlander die pretendeert het te volgen.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:23 schreef Montov het volgende:
Kunnen de kleuters even ophouden met hun speelkwartier?

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 10:49 schreef Wheelgunner het volgende:

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Klopt wel van wat ik gezien heb ja, maar aan de andere kant is hij soms toch best kritisch, en het feit dat die andere kant te horen is op Fox News viel me al mee. Ondanks dat het inderdaad een ontzettende 'tool' is.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 10:02 schreef Montov het volgende:
Handig overzicht met slutiingstijdn van de stembureau's.
http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3641

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:37 schreef AryaMehr het volgende:
http://www.nu.nl/news/181(...)_onder_Obama%27.html

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If Elected ...
Hopefuls Differ as They Reject Gay Marriage
By PATRICK HEALY
Several gay friends and wealthy gay donors to Senator Barack Obama have asked him over the years why, as a matter of logic and fairness, he opposes same-sex marriage even though he has condemned old miscegenation laws that would have barred his black father from marrying his white mother.

The difference, Mr. Obama has told them, is religion.

As a Christian — he is a member of the United Church of Christ — Mr. Obama believes that marriage is a sacred union, a blessing from God, and one that is intended for a man and a woman exclusively, according to these supporters and Obama campaign advisers. While he does not favor laws that ban same-sex marriage, and has said he is “open to the possibility” that his views may be “misguided,” he does not support it and is not inclined to fight for it, his advisers say.

Senator John McCain also opposes same-sex marriage, but unlike Mr. Obama’s, his position is influenced by generational and cultural experiences rather than a religious conviction, McCain advisers say.

But Mr. McCain, reflecting his strongly held views on federalism, has also broken with many Republican senators and joined Mr. Obama and most Democrats to oppose amending the United States Constitution to ban same-sex marriage, arguing that the issue should be left to the states to decide.

The candidates have very different positions, though, when it comes to the state level. Mr. Obama opposes amending state constitutions to define marriage as a heterosexual institution, describing such proposals as discriminatory. Mr. McCain, however, has been active in such efforts: On the most expensive and heated battle to ban same-sex marriage this year, a proposed constitutional amendment in California known as Proposition 8, he has endorsed the measure and sharply criticized a State Supreme Court ruling that granted same-sex couples the right to marry.

Mr. Obama has spoken out against Proposition 8, and opponents of the measure hope that a huge Democratic turnout in California on Nov. 4 — and, possibly, depressed turnout among conservatives — will help defeat it. At the same time, some Democrats say that if many socially conservative blacks and Hispanics turn out to support Mr. Obama, but oppose same-sex marriage, the amendment’s chances for passage could improve.

While same-sex marriage is not expected to play a consequential role in the elections on Tuesday — unlike in 2004, when a proposed ban in Ohio was widely seen as hurting the Democratic presidential nominee that year, Senator John Kerry — passions remain high for voters on both sides. Some gay Democrats had hoped, in particular, that Mr. Obama would extend his message of unity and tolerance to their fight on the issue.

“Barack is an intellectual guy, and I know he has been thinking through his position on gay marriage, and what is fair for all people,” said Michael Bauer, an openly gay fund-raiser for Mr. Obama and an adviser to his campaign on gay issues. “But he is just not there with us on this issue.”

Some gay allies of Mr. Obama thought, during a televised Democratic forum in Los Angeles in August 2007, that he might come out in favor of same-sex marriage, after he was asked if his position supporting civil unions but not same-sex marriage was tantamount to “separate but equal.”

“Look, when my parents got married in 1961, it would have been illegal for them to be married in a number of states in the South,” Mr. Obama said. “So, obviously, this is something that I understand intimately. It’s something that I care about.”

At that point, he veered onto legal rights, saying that — both in 1961 and today — it was more important to fight for nondiscrimination laws and employment protections than for marriage.

Mr. Obama has spoken only occasionally about his religious beliefs influencing his views on same-sex marriage, and he has indicated that he is wary of linking his religion to policy decisions.

“I’m a Christian,” Mr. Obama said on a radio program in his 2004 race for Senate. “And so, although I try not to have my religious beliefs dominate or determine my political views on this issue, I do believe that tradition, and my religious beliefs say that marriage is something sanctified between a man and a woman.”

In one of his books, “The Audacity of Hope,” however, Mr. Obama describes a conversation with a lesbian supporter who became upset when he cited his religious views to explain his opposition.

“She felt that by bringing religion into the equation, I was suggesting that she, and others like her, were somehow bad people,” he wrote. “I felt bad, and told her so in a return call. As I spoke to her, I was reminded that no matter how much Christians who oppose homosexuality may claim that they hate the sin but love the sinner, such a judgment inflicts pain on good people.”

“And I was reminded,” Mr. Obama added, “that it is my obligation, not only as an elected official in a pluralistic society but also as a Christian, to remain open to the possibility that my unwillingness to support gay marriage is misguided, just as I cannot claim infallibility in my support of abortion rights.”

Advisers to Mr. McCain, meanwhile, say that he is not especially fervent on the issue — he simply believes that marriage has always been between a man and a woman, and that this is a culturally accepted norm that he sees no need to dispute.

Mr. McCain discussed his views with the openly gay entertainer Ellen DeGeneres in an appearance on her television talk show in May.

The California Supreme Court had just cleared the way for same-sex marriage, and Ms. DeGeneres had announced on her program that she planned to marry her longtime girlfriend. “We are all the same people, all of us — you’re no different than I am,” Ms. DeGeneres told Mr. McCain as they sat next to each other in plush chairs. “Our love is the same.”

Mr. McCain called her comments “very eloquent” and added: “We just have a disagreement. And I, along with many, many others, wish you every happiness.”

Ms. DeGeneres said: “So, you’ll walk me down the aisle? Is that what you’re saying?”

Mr. McCain replied, “Touché.”

As a matter of policy, Mr. McCain approaches same-sex marriage from his strong federalist viewpoint. He was one of seven Republican senators to vote in June 2006 against a proposed federal amendment banning such marriages, saying it was an issue for the states. That same year, he also worked to try to amend Arizona’s Constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman. That amendment failed — the first rejection in 28 statewide votes on similar measures since 1998; a new effort is on the ballot next week in Arizona, and Mr. McCain has endorsed it.

“He is a true federalist, seeing no need for the federal government to dictate laws on who can marry who,” said Jim Kolbe, a former Republican congressman from Arizona and a friend of Mr. McCain’s, and who is openly gay.

“As a personal matter, I think this is entirely a generational and cultural thing for him — he just doesn’t see a need for gay marriage,” Mr. Kolbe said. “I just think gay marriage is not part of the world and background that he comes from.”

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:03 schreef Googolplexian het volgende:

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Jij bent vergeten welke emoties Pim Fortuijn bij veel Hollanders losmaakte?

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:08 schreef Halcon het volgende:

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Gaaaaaaaap. Je weet best dat Obama er niets van gaat bakken, dus ga je maar even Bush-bashen. Iets te kort door de bocht.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 12:49 schreef nummer_zoveel het volgende:

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Niets van gaat bakken? Waarom niet? Dat hij niet de messias is, betekent nog niet dat ie een niksnut is. Hij kan best een goede president zijn, maar Amerikanen zien het zoals wel vaker niet meer zo nuchter en laten zich meeslepen in hun euforie.

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“No individual president can compare to the second Bush,” wrote one. “Glib, contemptuous, ignorant, incurious, a dupe of anyone who humors his deluded belief in his heroic self, he has bankrupted the country with his disastrous war and his tax breaks for the rich, trampled on the Bill of Rights, appointed foxes in every henhouse, compounded the terrorist threat, turned a blind eye to torture and corruption and a looming ecological disaster, and squandered the rest of the world’s goodwill. In short, no other president’s faults have had so deleterious an effect on not only the country but the world at large.”

“With his unprovoked and disastrous war of aggression in Iraq and his monstrous deficits, Bush has set this country on a course that will take decades to correct,” said another historian. “When future historians look back to identify the moment at which the United States began to lose its position of world leadership, they will point—rightly—to the Bush presidency. Thanks to his policies, it is now easy to see America losing out to its competitors in any number of areas: China is rapidly becoming the manufacturing powerhouse of the next century, India the high tech and services leader, and Europe the region with the best quality of life.”

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 12:05 schreef Klopkoek het volgende:
Net Mark Rutte op de radio. Hij hoopt op McCain als president

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 13:37 schreef pberends het volgende:
Omdat Obama vroeger lid van de SP is geweest.

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Op vrijdag 31 oktober 2008 18:27 schreef Hertog_Martin het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

(tvp)

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 12:55 schreef Toad het volgende:
Er is een peiling.

National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5

Hetzelfde als gister volgens mij...

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 13:51 schreef Montov het volgende:

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Nee, gisteren was het +7.
En het gat gaat de komend twee dagen nog kleiner worden, naar een +2 denk ik.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 11:16 schreef Montov het volgende:

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 14:01 schreef Monidique het volgende:

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"Nothing like sarcastically insulting your seven year old daughter on national television."

Hm.. valt toch wel mee?

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Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.

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This was, in a way, the mistake we all made after the primary: Hillary's loyalists were almost all, like Ferraro, partisan Democrats.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 14:01 schreef Monidique het volgende:

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"Nothing like sarcastically insulting your seven year old daughter on national television."

Hm.. valt toch wel mee?

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 14:22 schreef Monidique het volgende:

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http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Gerry.html?showall

En met 'we all' bedoelt hij natuurlijk Ben Smith en de zijnen, want voor iedereen buiten de mediasfeer was het wel duidelijk dat vrouwen die Clinton als president wilden niet zomaar plots voor McCain gaan als er een of andere excuusvagina op het ticket staat...

Out of touch.

Toch?

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 14:26 schreef Jane het volgende:

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Toen ik het las vond ik het ook wel meevallen, maar toen ik het filmpje zag vond ik het idd ook wat pijnlijk. Door de toon en het hoofd dat ze erbij trekt, denk ik.

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Op zaterdag 1 november 2008 12:05 schreef Klopkoek het volgende:
Net Mark Rutte op de radio. Hij hoopt op McCain als president