Ukraine’s Big Backers in Europe Try to Counter War FatigueLeaders stress need for negotiated solution as populist parties critical of Kyiv aid gain sway
BERLIN—European voters are increasingly backing populist parties opposed to supporting Ukraine as fatigue grows with the war, forcing leaders to come up with a new pitch: We are pushing for peace.
In recent weeks, leaders in Europe’s biggest countries have been renewing calls for a diplomatic solution to the war. The reason isn’t a new belief that Moscow is open to talks, according to European officials. Instead, the new language aims to counter a popular argument that presents financial and military aid to Kyiv as both ruinous and dangerous.
European officials are stepping up their contacts with Moscow. Last week, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in New York, the first meeting between the countries’ foreign ministers since 2022. This summer, a senior European Union official spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s foreign-policy adviser Yuri Ushakov. French President Emmanuel Macron sent his national-security adviser to Moscow early this year.
In a speech on Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for a diplomatic end to the war while defending his country’s military assistance to Ukraine, saying only a strong and united Europe could bring a reluctant Moscow to the negotiating table.
“Our support for Ukraine is what creates the necessary prerequisite for serious peace negotiations with Moscow to begin,” he said.
Officials here said the speech was a direct reaction to the shifting popular mood in the country, where close to a third of voters now back parties that are opposed to sending more aid to Ukraine.
Even in Britain, where backing for Ukraine remains accepted across the political spectrum, Prime Minister Andy Burnham has shifted the tone, stressing last week that “unlike Russia, we do not seek confrontation.”
The rhetorical shift comes as polls show several populist parties with big leads in national polls. In France, polls show Marine Le Pen is most likely to win a presidential runoff next year. Her party opposed this year’s 90 billion euro, or roughly $101 billion, EU loan to Ukraine and senior officials have said Paris would cut off future nonmilitary aid to Ukraine.
In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, scored historical wins in two state elections in the former East Germany last month. It has criticized Berlin for sending billions to Ukraine just as it is cutting welfare benefits and raising taxes at home. The party wants to lift sanctions on Russia, resume buying energy from Moscow and strip Ukrainian refugees of their status.
With the Trump administration having cut off most direct aid to Ukraine, Europe is now largely alone in shouldering the mounting cost of arming Ukraine and keeping its economy afloat. These costs have grown as Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure.
Meanwhile, populist parties are seizing on voters’ fatigue after five years of war in which both sides have made little progress. Incumbent governments, they argue, are perpetuating the conflict even while the White House is pressing for talks. Le Pen has called for a major peace conference to end the war.
A YouGov poll this spring showed the percentage of voters wanting Ukraine to win the war little changed since 2023. However in Britain, France, Germany and Italy, there is a marked increase in support for a negotiated peace, even if Ukraine must cede land. Even in Poland, a stalwart Kyiv supporter initially, polls show support for Ukraine aid has fallen to around 50% amid tensions with Kyiv over a World War II-era feud.
In Germany, which is in the midst of a brutal industrial recession, the AfD’s antiwar message is proving potent with frustrated voters. Some 42% of Germans think Berlin is sending too many weapons to Ukraine, the highest level recorded since the start of the war, according to a poll by the ARD public broadcasters last month.
The AfD’s electoral success is in turn invigorating those in the ruling coalition who have long nurtured misgivings about Kyiv, from Merz’s conservatives in the eastern part of the country to the pacifists in the center-left Social Democratic Party.
For now, this isn’t reshaping Berlin’s Ukraine policy, which remains strongly supportive of Kyiv, but it is beginning to alter the way the government is talking about it, said Claudia Major, senior vice president for trans-Atlantic security at the German
Marshall Fund of the U.S., a think tank.
Wadephul’s surprise meeting with Lavrov was largely targeted at German voters, she said.
“In essence, he was saying: ‘Look, we want peace, we are trying diplomacy, but the Russians aren’t interested,’” she said.
Large sections of Merz’s speech on Thursday took direct aim at the AfD.
“We will not allow ourselves to be divided—not by hybrid attacks, not by agitation on social media driven by Moscow bots, and not by the slogans of the AfD and its Russian handlers,” he said.
Merz also stressed Germany’s self-interest in supporting Kyiv, saying it was “no end in itself. We do it above all to protect the safety of people in our country. Freedom and security are the conditions of our prosperity.”
The updated message has come alongside sharper warnings about the domestic threats posed by Russia.
Last month, Germany’s government blamed Russia publicly for deploying explosive drones to a German airport in August. Macron last week called political party leaders to the Élysée to brief them on the deteriorating international situation, including the threats posed by Moscow. Burnham said in New York last week that his government would establish a new center to fight disinformation from Russia.
Nonetheless, the push to open diplomatic channels is broadening. While it is partly intended for domestic consumption, Europeans also want to make sure they have a seat at the table as the U.S. keeps pushing for its own settlement with Moscow.
In Brussels, the EU has been debating whether to pick an envoy for talks with Moscow. Wadephul suggested that Europeans could use the White House’s invitation to Putin to attend the Miami G-20 leaders meeting in November to test the Russian leader’s seriousness about a negotiated solution to the war.
Lavrov scorned Wadephul after their discussions, accusing his German counterpart of simply reading out a statement he could have shared on the phone. The next day, Russia fired a drone at Kyiv’s prestigious National Academy of Sciences building, situated close to Germany’s Embassy in Ukraine.
That underlines a danger in seeking outreach to Moscow, said Slawomir Debski, a former adviser to the Polish government and a visiting professor of strategy and international relations at the College of Europe.
“The danger is that if we approach Russians without any conditions, like a temporary halt in civilian attacks, we are signaling weakness to them,” he said.