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  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 01:41:03 #76
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1s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 01:38 schreef beefkeek het volgende:

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Als je de energie die je in de emotie in deze post gestopt hebt in begrijpend lezen wat in dit topic gezegd wordt zou steken zou je begrijpen dat er grotendeels hetzelfde gezegd wordt.
Bij lange na niet maar ok. Verder, energie in emoties stoppen?
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0s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 01:41 schreef Richestorags het volgende:

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Bij lange na niet maar ok. Verder, energie in emoties stoppen?
Het is laat, je begrijpt wat ik bedoel
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 02:16:50 #78
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0s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 01:43 schreef beefkeek het volgende:

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Het is laat, je begrijpt wat ik bedoel
Nou, ik heb de post waarop ik reageerde nogmaals gelezen er staat gewoon niet hetzelfde of min of meer hetzelfde als waar ik naar refereer.

Mijn basisaxioma is: Iran is niet te vertrouwen, de deal gaf een onbetrouwbaar Iran nog veel te veel speelruimte en zelfs extra macht (geld) en beide bewees het ruimschoots. Schurkenstaat Noord-Korea, niet geheel ontoevallig gelieerd aan Iran, heeft een pad richting de nuke bewandeld dat ook gepaard ging met toezeggingen, sanctieverlichtingen, hulp en concessies. Datzelfde Noord-Korea hielp Iran aan rakettechnologie voor nukes tijdens de deal. 1+1 = 2.

De deal had veel verder moeten gaan met veel strengere repercussies en dan had het wellicht gekund. Nu heeft Iran iedereen (en zeker hier op POL) zand in de ogen gestrooid door ogenschijnlijk een opoffering te maken (stoppen met uraniumverrijking en inspecties toelaten) terwijl het meer ervoor terugkreeg: meer geld, meer technologie, meer grip op de regio via oorlogen en terreurnetwerken, meer samenwerking met NK, geen stop op faciliteiten en kennis.
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 02:18:41 #79
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Uiteraard zonder het Congres in te lichten.

[ Bericht 20% gewijzigd door Kijkertje op 22-06-2025 02:30:58 ]
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
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81s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:18 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:
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Uiteraard zonder toestemming van het Congres.
Je wilt Iran en al zn bondgenoten inderdaad graag van te voren even laten weten dat je dr aan komt…
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0s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:20 schreef Eagles89 het volgende:

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Je wilt Iran en al zn bondgenoten inderdaad graag van te voren even laten weten dat je dr aan komt…
Ja als ze Israel al niet konden afhouden zal de Amerikaanse luchtmacht die eroverheen komt vast makkelijk te stoppen zijn.
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81s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:18 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Uiteraard zonder het Congres in te lichten.
Benieuwd hoeveel blowback hiervan gaat komen. Ik neem aan dat een Iraanse nuke in de toekomst dan wel een garantie is. Waarom zou Iran nog een deal aangaan met onbetrouwbare leugenaars.
Nouja ik ben sowieso niet tegen Iraanse nukes zolang Israel ze heeft.
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 02:46:18 #83
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0s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:42 schreef Lord-Ronddraai het volgende:

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Benieuwd hoeveel blowback hiervan gaat komen. Ik neem aan dat een Iraanse nuke in de toekomst dan wel een garantie is. Waarom zou Iran nog een deal aangaan met onbetrouwbare leugenaars.
Nouja ik ben sowieso niet tegen Iraanse nukes zolang Israel ze heeft.
Ik denk ook niet dat aan Trump's wens 'NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!' voldaan gaat worden ;(

NYT:

quote:
Experts said the decision by President Trump to strike Iran marked the start of an unpredictable chapter of security and politics in the Middle East.

"It's a new phase, and a potentially problematic one," said Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Iranian political leaders will most likely face pressure inside the country to respond, possibly by launching counterattacks on American military sites or proxies.

"They were very humiliated in every possible way, and that makes them vulnerable to their population and to domestic critics," Takeyh said. "They would have to essentially restore pride in some way."
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 02:48:43 #84
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And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
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9s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:46 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:

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Ik denk ook niet dat aan Trump's wens 'NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!' voldaan gaat worden ;(
Opzich zou het hiermee voor nu klaar kunnen zijn toch. De strategische missie om die sites te vernietigen is gelukt. Dus Israel zou kunnen stoppen met deze escalatie. Dan nog hopen dat Iran blijkbaar verstandiger is dan Netanyahu ons wil laten geloven. Death to Amerika en Israel gaat in elk geval voorlopig niet van het menu daar.
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 02:50:24 #86
38496 Perrin
Toekomst. Made in Europe.
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In de praktijk blijkt helaas dat het zelden klaar is na dit soort militaire aanvallen.

Maar laten we hopen dat het dit keer wel zo is.
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 02:52:02 #87
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Ik vrees dat dat wensdenken is.

quote:
Iran's clerical rulers have a long history of open animosity toward the United States. From vowing "Death to America" to taking American diplomats hostage, the Iranian government has repeatedly gone to the brink of conflict with the United States and then pulled back to avoid direct military confrontation. Now, following the U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities and Iran's threats to retaliate, the conflict risks entering a more dangerous phase.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 02:58:11 #88
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Some members of Congress criticized the Trump administration for not seeking congressional approval before U.S. troops engaged in attacks against Iran. “This is not Constitutional,” said Representative Thomas Massie, Republican of Kentucky, who was a co-sponsor of a resolution trying to block any military action in Iran without Congress authorizing it.

Writing directly in response to Trump’s statement, Representative Jim Himes, a Democrat from Connecticut on the Intelligence Committee, said: “According to the Constitution we are both sworn to defend, my attention to this matter comes BEFORE bombs fall. Full stop.”
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
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9s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:52 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:
Ik vrees dat dat wensdenken is.
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Lol ik zou niet graag de Amerikaanse onderhandelaar zijn. Voor je het weet sturen ze alleen je hoofd terug.
Tja Iran zal vast minimaal een tegenreactie moeten doen om een beetje status te behouden. Hopelijk zetten ze meer in op een long-con maar ik deel jullie pessimisme dat het best een tijd van op zijn minst bombardementen over en weer zal blijven.

Ik denk dat Rutte ook eens met Trump moet aankaarten dat hij zijn Navo bondgenoten op deze manier in gevaar brengt dat dit niet gewaardeerd wordt. Oh wacht haha we hebben het over Rutte die gaat helemaal nikks voor ons doen om Trump minder achterlijk te laten handelen. In elk geval hoorde ik bij het PvdA/GL congrees meer anti Navo sentiment ^O^
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:05:03 #90
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A news anchor said on Iranian state television, “Mr. Trump, you started it and we will end it.” The broadcast showed a large graphic of American bases in the Middle East with the headline, “Within the fire range of Iran.” The anchor said the United States had no legitimate place in the region.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:08:49 #91
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Four scenarios of how American involvement in the war could play out.

President Trump’s decision to send American bombers to help Israel in its campaign against Iran could kick off a more dangerous phase in the war.

The U.S. attack on Fordo, an enrichment site buried deep in a mountain, and two other Iranian nuclear sites, may not obliterate Iran’s nuclear program and could lead Iran to broaden the war or accelerate that program.

And the attacks may have unpredictable consequences in Iran. The country’s autocratic clerical leadership, which has ruled for nearly half a century since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, has proved its staying power even in the face of multiple domestic uprisings, and proved its resilience under economic sanctions and intense U.S. pressure.

Here are some ways U.S. involvement could play out.

Iran could negotiate

Before Israel launched a surprise attack on June 13, Iran and the United States were discussing limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran was rapidly producing fuel close to the levels needed for nuclear weapons, and in exchange for new limits on the program, it would win relief from economic sanctions.

The two sides were nowhere near a final agreement, but signs of a possible compromise had emerged by early June. When Israel attacked Iran, the negotiations collapsed. Still, Iran has signaled that it remains willing to talk, and even a strike on Fordo would not necessarily wipe out prospects of a return to the negotiating table.

But so far, Mr. Trump has not extended many carrots. He called on social media last week for Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.”

Iran may lean into nuclear activity

All eyes are on Fordo. But it is possible that Iran has secret nuclear sites aimed at producing weapons that the United States and Israel do not know about, though no public evidence has emerged of such places.

If they do exist, Iran could use whatever it has left to try to accelerate its nuclear program in the wake of an American attack.

With the damage Israeli airstrikes have done to nuclear facilities and the killings of top nuclear scientists, Iran probably lacks the capacity to build a nuclear weapon quickly, analysts said. Still, it could move in that direction and would have fresh incentive to do so.

The war could get bigger and messier

Though Iran has responded to Israeli attacks with missiles and threats of its own, it has refrained from hitting American troops or bases in the Middle East. It has also not struck Arab countries allied with the United States, such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.

Nor has it sent global oil prices soaring by sealing off or harassing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping channel to Iran’s south.

But on Friday, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that if the United States chose to strike Iran, the country reserved the right to retaliate, as it has against Israel. “When there is a war, both sides attack each other. That’s quite understandable. And self-defense is a legitimate right of every country,” he said in an interview with NBC News.

And Iran’s allied militias in the region, including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed groups in Iraq, have not joined the fight. Though many of them have been seriously weakened over the past two years, those Iranian allies could still join the fray.

Talk of regime change

Even if Iran’s supreme leader were to be killed, the religious-military establishment that has tightly held power in Iran for nearly five decades may not fall.

With a war raging, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the most powerful branch of Iran’s military, could seize control of the country. They might put in place a more Western-friendly government, or, more likely, replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with a more extreme figure who would dig in for a long fight.

If the military does not assert itself quickly, some analysts fear that Iran could plunge into chaos or civil war as different factions struggle for control. But they see little chance for Iran’s liberal opposition, which has been weakened and brutally repressed by the regime, to prevail.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:14:13 #92
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There are about 40,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East.

More than 40,000 U.S. active-duty troops and civilians are working for the Pentagon in the Middle East, positioned across several countries along with billions of dollars in weapons and military equipment.

Thousands of American troops could be in Iran’s direct line of fire, either through missiles, drones or attacks by Iran’s allies, which include groups in many of the same countries where U.S. forces are stationed.
Trump brengt ze allemaal in gevaar.

quote:
Shortly after the U.S. struck key nuclear sites in Iran, Israel placed more stringent wartime restrictions on civilians, signaling a greater threat from Iran.

The Home Front Command, the Israeli military unit responsible for issuing guidelines to civilians, will now only allow essential workers to report in person. All gatherings, including educational activities, are banned. On Wednesday, Israel had temporarily lifted those restrictions and allowed gatherings of up to 30 people.
quote:
Israel was alerted that the bombs were going to be dropped at some point before it happened, and President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu afterward, according to a person with knowledge of the conversations who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.


[ Bericht 11% gewijzigd door Kijkertje op 22-06-2025 03:19:48 ]
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
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81s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:18 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Uiteraard zonder het Congres in te lichten.
Wat ook niet nodig is met deze zeer beperkte militaire actie.
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:21:22 #94
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Zo verrast waren ze niet.

quote:
Mehdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, said in a post on social media that Iran had been anticipating attacks on Fordo for several nights. “The site had been evacuated a long time ago and the damages are not irreversible,” he wrote, adding, “you cannot bomb knowledge.”
quote:
President Trump, who campaigned on an "America First" platform that was predicated on the United States not engaging in any wars abroad during his time in office, has now decided to enter a war that puts American troops at risk. Our colleagues reported that American officials who reviewed intelligence reports said Iran was prepared to strike U.S. military bases and equipment in the Middle East should the United States join Israel's war against the country.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:26:14 #95
38496 Perrin
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9s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:52 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:
Ik vrees dat dat wensdenken is.
[..]

twitter
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:30:54 #96
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0s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 03:26 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Dat Iran nu gaat opzitten en pootjes geven lijkt mij ook erg onwaarschijnlijk ;(

quote:
On the night of America's attack, Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was not in the country. He was in Turkey, where he met President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and was scheduled to appear at a news conference on Sunday. Araghchi said earlier Saturday, "If the United States enters the war, the situation will become very, very dangerous." He has not commented publicly since the attack.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:38:00 #97
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Skeptics of military intervention were hoping that President Trump would take steps to prevent the United States from being dragged into a wider war. “To calm the situation as much as possible, Trump should urgently redeploy as many U.S. forces stationed in the region as possible out of harm’s way before Iran can retaliate,” said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, a think tank that advocates a restrained foreign policy. Kelanic said Trump should begin by withdrawing American troops from Iraq and Syria, forces particularly vulnerable to an Iranian counterattack.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:40:13 #98
258333 Vis1980
Veni Vidi Vissie
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81s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 02:18 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Uiteraard zonder het Congres in te lichten.
Geschreven door Miller.
Het antwoord op de belangrijkste vraag van alle vragen? 42!
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:46:04 #99
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Het volk wilde geen oorlogen meer zei Trump ....
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
  zondag 22 juni 2025 @ 03:47:05 #100
258333 Vis1980
Veni Vidi Vissie
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81s.gif Op zondag 22 juni 2025 03:46 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:
Het volk wilde geen oorlogen meer zei Trump ....
Chivaz verzekert ons dat het maar kleinschalig was... dus dan zal het officieel geen oorlog zijn, maar 'beleid'.
Het antwoord op de belangrijkste vraag van alle vragen? 42!
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