Het NAVO-topic #3 Wel de lusten maar niet de lasten

quote:

According to Rutte, repeat invocations of NATO’s Article IV over Russian incursions risk diluting the treaty’s force.

The invocations are the result of NATO not having established clear ROE that would automate the response to these incursions. This is what is diluting NATO’s force, not the fact that frontline states are repeatedly asking for clear ROE that would respond appropriately to Russian provocations.

Rutte suffers from a malady that seems to affect many Westerners in their dealings with Russians — the idea that they can get something for nothing with costless signals. It’s the same obsession with diplomatic messaging that we’ve seen repeatedly fail to get any traction but that keeps being tried because, well, it’s cheap.

The Russians will not be counting how many times Article IV is invoked — they will look at whether there’s any consequences from these consultations. When nothing happens, they will reasonably infer that they can proceed with impunity.

Rutte’s logic is akin to asking someone to stop calling the police every time someone tries to break into his house — it’s the fact that nothing happens after these calls that is going to encourage the burglars, not the calls themselves.