Zonnevlammen, Zonnestormen en CME #5:

quote:

Two X-class solar flares erupted over the past 9 hours
; the first was X1.8 at 23:07 UTC on February 21 and the second X1.7 at 06:32 UTC on February 22, 2024. Both erupted from Active Region 3590.

There were no apparent coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produced during these events.

The possibility of Earth-directed CMEs will change in the days ahead as AR 3590 moves into a geoeffective position. Additionally, the region has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more major eruptions on the Sun.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over east Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Ocean at the time of the X1.8 flare and over east Africa, parts of the Middle East, India, China, Indonesia, and central and west Australia at the time of the X1.7 flare.

There is only one other active region on the Sun (AR 3586) but it has been stable and inactive for several days.

Additionally, an eruptive filament was observed starting around 15:00 UTC on February 21 in the NW quadrant, and an eruptive prominence at 16:00 UTC on the SE limb.

Material associated with the limb event is not expected to be directed toward Earth, SWPC said at 00:30 UTC today, adding that analysis of the filament eruption will be completed once coronagraph from SOHO imagery becomes available.

Former AR 3575, which has a history of producing X-class flares, is expected to return to the visible disk today, increasing chances for moderate solar activity and M-class flares as it comes into view over the next day or two.

AR 3590 also has the continued potential to produce M- and X-class flares as it rotates toward the center of the disk.

The solar wind environment is expected to be at nominal levels through February 24. During the same period, geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels.

quote:

3rd X-class solar flare in 24 hours is the most powerful for 6 years — and it may not be the last

A hyperactive sunspot recently unleashed its third X-class flare in under 24 hours. The X6 flare is the most powerful since 2017 and could be followed by equally massive explosions.

The gigantic solar flare erupted from a hyperactive sunspot in the sun's northern hemisphere on Feb. 22. (Image credit: NASA/SDO)
They say all good things come in threes, but what about supercharged solar flares?

A massive, hyperactive sunspot has just unleashed its third X-class solar flare — the most powerful type of solar explosion — in less than 24 hours. The latest flare, which is the largest of the current solar cycle, is the sun's most intense outburst since 2017. And an even more powerful explosion could be on the way.

This flurry of sun-shaking eruptions is a stark reminder that we are on the verge of entering the explosive peak of the solar cycle — the solar maximum — and are likely to see even more intense and potentially destructive solar storms over the next few years.

On Feb. 21, sunspot AR3590 — a massive dark patch several times wider than Earth — spat out two X-class flares in the space of seven hours, Live Science's sister site Space.com reported. These explosions had magnitudes of X1.8 and X1.7 respectively.

But on Feb. 22, the same sunspot unleashed an X6.3 flare around 23 hours after the first, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This was around five times more powerful than the previous two flares, according to NASA.

Not only is this the most powerful explosion of the current solar cycle, which began in 2019, but it is also the most powerful since Sept. 10, 2017, when an X11.8 magnitude flare rocked the sun.

None of the flares launched coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — clouds of magnetized plasma that can slam into Earth's magnetic field, or magnetosphere, and trigger disturbances known as geomagnetic storms that can lead to vibrant aurora displays.

However, all three spat waves of radiation toward us, causing temporary radio blackouts as they slammed into our planet's protective shield. There were rumors that the first two flares were also responsible for causing cell coverage outages from providers AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. But this was likely not the case.

But we are not yet in the clear. AR3590 has a particularly unstable magnetic field that "harbors energy for more X-class explosions," Spaceweather.com reported. The sunspot only recently emerged on the sun's near-side to Earth and will be pointing at us for the next week, so if it does have any more violent outbursts it could hurl a substantial CME right at us.

If this were to happen, it could not only trigger auroras but also disrupt communications, interfere with infrastructure on the planet's surface and knock satellites out of the sky.

quote:

Major network outages in US following two X-class solar flares
A widespread network outage was reported in the United States on Thursday morning, February 22, 2024, following two major eruptions on the Sun, an X1.8 flare at 23:07 UTC on February 21 and X1.7 at 06:32 UTC on February 22. Both erupted from Active Region 3590.

The main question everyone in the space weather community was confronted with today is whether these flares could have affected the telecommunication networks in the United States, causing major outages.

These outages primarily affected cellular service, particularly for users of AT&T, with tens of thousands of their users reporting issues according to Downdetector.com. Other carriers like Verizon, T-Mobile, UScellular, and Cricket Wireless were also affected to a lesser extent.

The outages also affected companies like Starlink, Consumer Cellular, Boost Mobile, Google, US Cellular, Spectrum, Xfinity, OpenAI, Facebook, Microsoft and many others.

The impact was felt in major cities across the US, including San Francisco, Houston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and Boston, causing disruptions to communication, internet access, and even emergency services in some areas. Most carriers reported full or partial restoration of service later in the day.

While there were reports of isolated incidents in other parts of the world around the same time, these seem to be unrelated to the US outage and were likely caused by localized issues with specific providers or infrastructure.

According to NOAA SWPC, solar flares can affect communication systems, radar, and the Global Positioning System, based on the intensity of the eruption and associated phenomena, but it is highly unlikely that these flares contributed to the widely reported cellular network outages.

Many solar astrophysicists agree. “Some people are attributing cell network outages (AT&T, Verizon) in the U.S to last night’s X-class solar flare. However, flares only cause radio degradation on the dayside of the Earth. As you can see below, the U.S was not affected by the event. So it’s just a coincidence,” said solar astrophysicist Dr. Ryan French.

While it’s true that radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Indian Ocean at the time of the X1.7 flare, the largest effects of the X1.8 event on February 21 (some 7 hours before the X1.7) were much closer to the United States, but still mostly over the Pacific Ocean.

Ben Davidson of the Suspicious Observers YouTube channel added an interesting connection, saying: “These networks are not connected to one another in such a way that we can easily blame something else [other than solar flares], including hacking. This broader scope makes NOAA’s claim of unlikely more and more unlikely to be accurate.”

“If it was hacking, it was a hacking effort on a scale never before seen on Earth and they timed it right when the solar blasts occurred. There can be no certainty either way at this moment but I do have to say that best and most reasonable explanation at this time is that the ionospheric and global electric circuit impact from the back to back X-class triggered these disruptions of the communication and infrastructure networks.”

quote:

Op vrijdag 10 mei 2024 09:43 schreef Resistor het volgende:
[ x ]
Gaat lekker zo.

Had iemand 'massieve zonnestormen' op zijn/haar rampen-bingokaart 2024 staan?

quote:

First ‘severe geomagnetic storm watch' issued in nearly 20 years. Here's what it could mean

The storm could cause enhanced viewing opportunities for the Northern Lights in the U.S., but could also have impacts on radio communications, GPS satellites and more

The National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a “severe geomagnetic storm watch,” the first such watch issued in nearly 20 years.

According to the SWPC, this marks the first watch issued by the department since Jan. 2005. The watch comes after multiple earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME’s) were observed by forecasters this week.

At least five CME’s have been observed in recent days, and the particles could begin arriving to Earth by Friday afternoon, according to officials. It’s expected that the CME’s could continue to arrive through Sunday, marking for an “unusual event.”

Only three “severe” geomagnetic storms have been observed since the current solar cycle began in Dec. 2019. The last G4 storm hit Earth in March, and the last G5 storm hit in Oct. 2003, causing power outages in Sweden, according to SWPC.

CME’s are "large expulsions of plasma and magnetized particles from the Sun’s corona," according to the SWPC. Those ejections can expand in size as they approach Earth, and can cause geomagnetic storms when they arrive.

In a geomagnetic storm, the particles ejected by the sun cause disturbances in Earth’s magnetosphere. Particularly strong storms can impact the Earth’s ionosphere, adding energy in the form of heat that can “increase the density and distribution of density in the upper atmosphere, causing extra drag on satellites in low Earth orbit,” according to the SWPC.

As a result, disruptions in navigation systems, radio communications and power grids are all possible, though it is unclear if the approaching storm will be strong enough to yield those impacts.

Another potential impact that could occur is a much-more vibrant Northern Lights spectacle, which could be seen as far south as Tennessee or even Alabama late Friday and into Saturday, according to officials.

Unfortunately for residents in Illinois, showers are expected to impact the Chicago area late Friday and into Saturday, likely spoiling the show that evening.

In addition, space weather forecasts can change dramatically in a matter of hours, with officials providing additional updates as the weekend draws closer.

quote:

Op vrijdag 10 mei 2024 09:43 schreef Resistor het volgende:
[ x ]
Gaat lekker zo.

Had iemand 'massieve zonnestormen' op zijn/haar rampen-bingokaart 2024 staan?

quote:

G5 – Extreme geomagnetic storm following strong CME impact

The first set of several incoming coronal mass ejections (CMEs) impacted Earth at around 16:56 UTC on May 10, 2024, rapidly increasing geomagnetic field levels from unsettled to G4 – Severe by 17:44 and to G5 – Extreme by 23:34 UTC — something we haven’t seen since 2003.

A strong CME was registered in solar wind data beginning at around 16:35 UTC and reached Earth at 16:56 UTC, with a 108 nT deviation measured at the Boulder magnetometer. Following initial shock arrival, total field strength increased to a peak of 55 nT while Bz was sustained southward, by as much as -47 nT, after 16:45 UTC.

Solar wind speeds increased sharply to around 700 km/s following shock arrival, with a peak value of 741 km/s observed at 17:35 UTC. Conditions further enhanced later, with Bt reaching 74 nT, Bz deviating southward to near -50 nT, and solar winds peaking over 800 km/s.

The geomagnetic field rapidly increased from unsettled levels to G4, and eventually G5 – Severe geomagnetic storm levels following the CME arrival.

Aurora sightings were widespread in both hemispheres, reaching as far south as Florida, U.S., and the Mediterranean Sea in Europe.

One of the first amazing images came out of New Zealand and Tasmania, described as ‘absolutely biblical.’

The last time Earth had a G5 – Extreme geomagnetic storm was in October 2003, resulting in power outages in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa.

It’s likely this geomagnetic storm was caused by a Cannibal CME — when fast-moving CMEs overtake slower CMEs in front of them and merge into one. Forecast models suggest three of them merged into one yesterday. If so, we still have at least 3 more CMEs coming our way.

Solar researchers believe cannibal CMEs may be the source of ‘complex ejecta’ CME clouds; those with a larger and more complex structure than typical CMEs. These traits cause complex ejecta CMEs to trigger protracted magnetic storms when they envelop the Earth, according to NOAA.

According to SWPC forecasters, periods of G3 – Strong to G4 -Severe geomagnetic storms are expected on May 11 due to continued CME activity.

Periods of G1 – Minor to G2 – Moderate storming are likely on May 12 due to the anticipated arrival of at least two more halo CMEs associated with activity from Region 3664 on May 9 and 10, in addition to the onset of coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences.

Unsettled and active conditions are expected on May 12 due to waning CME influences and continued CH HSS influences.

quote:

Satellieten van Musk verstoord door sterkste zonnestorm sinds 2003

De aarde heeft vrijdag de krachtigste zonnestorm sinds 2003 beleefd. Dat zorgde voor prachtige beelden aan de hemel. Op veel plekken in het land was de Aurora borealis, ook wel bekend als het noorderlicht, afgelopen nacht goed te zien. Komende nacht is het kleurrijke fenomeen mogelijk weer te aanschouwen.

Binnenlandredactie 10-05-24, 19:25 Laatste update: 11-05-24, 11:49
De aarde ervaart haar eerste extreme geomagnetische storm sinds 2003, heeft de National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) vrijdag gezegd. Volgens de Amerikaanse instantie voor meteorologie en oceanografie is de zonnestorm er een van niveau 5, een niveau dat wordt omschreven als ‘extreem’.

De storm werd vrijdagavond op aarde waargenomen, een primeur sinds 2003, aldus NOAA. De storm wordt veroorzaakt door de uitstoot van zonnevlammen. ,,GPS, elektriciteitsnetwerken, ruimtevaartuigen, satellietnavigatie en andere technologieën kunnen erdoor worden beïnvloed”, voegde de instantie eraan toe. De storm zal naar verwachting het hele weekend aanhouden, aldus NOAA.

De satellieten van Starlink, een onderdeel van Elon Musks ruimtebedrijf SpaceX, hebben dat al ondervonden. Starlink waarschuwt zaterdag voor ‘verminderde service’ van de internetverbindingen die de satellieten verzorgen. ,,Ons team onderzoekt dit”, meldt het bedrijf op zijn website.

Van de ongeveer 7500 satellieten die rond de aardbol cirkelen, bezit Starlink zo’n 60 procent. De satellieten verzorgen onder meer internet in afgelegen of dunbevolkte gebieden. Onlangs gaf Israël SpaceX toestemming om dat land en delen van Gaza van Starlink-internet te voorzien. Eerder waren daar door de oorlog communicatielijnen uitgevallen. Musk meldde eerder al op sociale mediaplatform X dat de satellieten van Starlink onder grote druk stonden van de storm, maar goed stand hielden.

Zonnevlammen
Naast mogelijke verstoringen veroorzaken deze series zonnevlammen een indrukwekkend noorderlicht, dat soms veel zuidelijker te zien is dan in de regio’s waar het gewoonlijk waarneembaar is.

Ook in Nederland is dit weekend het noorderlicht te zien. Vrijdagavond en in de nacht van vrijdag op zaterdag was het al raak en was het poollicht uitstekend waar te nemen. Dat blijkt ook wel uit beelden die rondgaan op sociale media. Daarop zijn prachtig gekleurde luchten te zien. Volgens Weeronline was het poollicht zelfs op plaatsen met veel omgevingslicht, zoals Amsterdam, goed waarneembaar.

Ook zaterdagnacht is de kans op noorderlicht aanwezig. Wel wordt het volgens het weerbureau, dat met helder licht gunstige weersomstandigheden verwacht, minder intensief dan de nacht ervoor.

De eerste zonnevlam arriveerde vrijdagavond rond 19.00 uur. Dit klinkt vooralsnog leuk, maar er is wel degelijk meer aan de hand. Deze zogenaamde zonnestorm werkt mogelijk ook zeer ontwrichtend.

Ontwrichtende situaties
De zware zonnestorm dreigt namelijk stroomuitval te veroorzaken, navigatiesystemen te ontwrichten en hoogfrequente radio’s over de hele wereld uit te schakelen. Ook kunnen ruimtevoertuigen uit koers raken.

Dit omdat er meerdere golven van zonne-energie op de planeet neerkomen. Men verwacht dat vijf uitbarstingen van materiaal uit de atmosfeer van de zon vrijdag laat zullen plaatsvinden en tot en met zondag zullen aanhouden. ,,Dit is zeer zeldzaam”, aldus het Amerikaanse Space Weather Prediction Center.

Vluchten omgeleid
De laatste keer dat de aarde werd getroffen door een G5-storm – de ergste op deze schaal – was oktober 2003, met stroomstoringen in Zweden en beschadigde transformatoren in Zuid-Afrika tot gevolg. Wat de precieze kracht van deze storm zal zijn, weten we ongeveer 60 tot 90 minuten voordat hij de aarde raakt. Satellieten zullen de energie-uitbarstingen meten. Bovendien zullen transpolaire vluchten tussen Europa, Azië en Noord-Amerika waarschijnlijk worden omgeleid om verhoogde blootstelling aan straling voor passagiers en bemanningsleden te voorkomen.

Is er eventuele schade voor Nederland? Wouter van Bernebeek (Weerplaza): ,,Ik denk niet dat het echt overlast geeft hier. Wellicht een enkele radiostoring bijvoorbeeld bij het vliegverkeer, maar daarvoor zijn deze zonnevlammen niet krachtig genoeg. Het levert vooral hele grote noorderlichtkansen op, zowel vanavond als morgen. Maar veel ellende voor mensen in Nederland: nee, dat verwacht ik eigenlijk niet.”

aarom nu?
Weerplaza: ,,We naderen het zogenaamde ‘zonnemaximum’, de periode waarin zich de meeste zonnevlekken voordoen aan de oppervlakte van de zon in een cyclus van 12 jaar. Momenteel ligt een groepje met zulke vlekken richting de aarde te ‘blazen’ en dat gaan we merken...” Tussen woensdagochtend en donderdagmiddag zijn minstens tien zonnevlammen richting de aarde afgevuurd, waaronder maar liefst vier stuks van een zware X-klasse. Vrijwel al deze uitbarstingen hebben een zonnestorm veroorzaakt wat tot noorderlicht kan leiden, aldus het weerbureau.

quote:

Op woensdag 15 mei 2024 10:38 schreef Starhopper het volgende:

[..]
Dat is buiten het bereik van de meetinstrumenten

quote:

De zwaarste uitbarsting sinds de metingen van zonnevlammen begonnen in 1976, was waarschijnlijk een X40 zonnevlam op 4 november 2003 tijdens zonnecyclus 23. De detectoren op de GOES-12 satelliet, die de kracht van zonnevlammen meet, raakte 12 minuten lang verzadigd bij X24,86 door de intense straling. Een latere analyse resulteerde in een geschatte pieksterkte van X40 al is dit nog een punt van discussie, er zijn wetenschappers die denken dat de zonnevlam nog sterker was dan X40. Gelukkig lag het gebied dat deze uitbarsting produceerde tijdens de X40 zonnevlam al op de zonnerand maar toch was een deel van de coronale massa uitstoot aardegericht. Deze coronale massa uitstoot kwam aan op Aarde op 6 november 2003. Er is sinds de nieuwe generatie GOES satellieten nog geen zonnevlam geweest die de instrumenten op GOES verzadigde maar wetenschappers verwachten dat ook bij de huidige generatie GOES satellieten de instrumenten zullen verzadigen rond de X24,86 klasse.

quote:

Op woensdag 15 mei 2024 11:25 schreef Starhopper het volgende:

[..]
Geschat

quote:

Aarde blijft (voorlopig) buiten schot van nieuwe grote zonnevlammen

Afgelopen week heeft de zon de grootste zonnevlam in jaren geproduceerd. De vlam volgt op de zonnestorm die ervoor zorgde dat het noorderlicht in Nederland te zien was. Dat natuurverschijnsel is nu voorbij, want de aarde ligt niet meer in de baan van de zonnevlammen.
Volgens de Amerikaanse ruimtevaartorganisatie NASA en het weerinstituut NOAA was de zonnevlam van afgelopen dinsdag de krachtigste sinds 2005. Woensdag volgde nog een tweede, minder krachtige zonnevlam.

De vlammen volgen op de heuse zonnestorm van vorige week. Dit zeldzame fenomeen zorgde ervoor dat op verschillende plekken op aarde de aurora borealis, oftewel het noorderlicht, te zien was. Ook in Nederland was het natuurverschijnsel in grote delen van het land goed zichtbaar. Normaal gesproken moet je daarvoor in het noorden van Scandinavië, Canada, Rusland of Alaska zijn.

Ondanks een nieuwe serie zonnevlammen gaat het noorderlicht ditmaal aan onze neus voorbij. De aarde ligt namelijk niet meer in de baan van deze zonnevlammen.

quote:

Sunspot AR3685 emitted an X-flare two days ago, but has been quiet since

quote:

Powerful X1.9 solar flare erupts, producing strong CME

A powerful solar flare measuring X1.9 erupted from departing Active Region 3738 at 13:26 UTC on July 16, 2024. The event started at 13:11 and ended at 13:36 UTC.

This event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission, with an estimated velocity of 516 km/s, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced.

A Type IV Radio Emission was registered beginning at 13:38 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong CMEs and solar radiation storms.

Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst, lasting 8 minutes and with a peak flux of 550 sfu, was registered between 13:18 and 13:26 UTC. This indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. It can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

quote:

Major X7.1 solar flare erupts from Region 3842, producing likely Earth-directed CME

A major solar flare measuring X7.1 erupted from Active Region 3842 at 22:20 UTC on October 1, 2024, producing a coronal mass ejection (CME) that most likely has an Earth-directed component. This is the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25.

This is the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 — after X8.7 on May 14, 2024. The third place holds X6.3 which erupted on February 22, 2024.
The source region is within the Earth-strike zone — meaning any CME produced by it will likely have an Earth-directed component.
A major solar flare measuring X7.1 erupted from Active Region 3842 at 22:20 UTC on October 1, 2024. The event started at 21:58 and ended at 22:29 UTC.

Associated with this event was a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 246 km/s, indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with the flare event.

Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) lasting 9 minutes and with a peak flux of 810 sfu was registered from 22:09 to 22:18 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Radio signatures were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare.

Coronagraph imagery is still not available to confirm whether we have an incoming CME. However, this region is within the Earth-strike zone — meaning any CME produced by it will likely have an Earth-directed component.