Zonnevlammen, Zonnestormen en CME #4:

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Three moderate solar flares erupted from the sun
Three moderately strong solar flares measuring M4.4, M5.3 and M2.3 erupted from Active Region 2644 (beta) on April 1 and 2, 2017. The M4.4 event started at 21:35, peaked at 21:48 and ended at 22:05 UTC. It was the first M-class solar flare since November 29, 2016 and the strongest since M5.5 on July 23, 2016.

A Type IV Radio Emission was registered at 21:50 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar radiation storms. However, the plasma cloud appears to be headed to the northwest and away from our planet.

Another M-class solar flare erupted from Region 2644 on April 2. This one started at 07:50, peaked at 08:02 UTC as M5.3 and ended at 08:13 UTC.

A Type IV Radio Emission was registered beginning at 08:00 UTC, indicating a strong coronal mass ejection and solar radiation storm. A Type II Radio Emission (estimated velocity 628 km/s) was registered at 08:07 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

The location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs.

The third M-class solar flare started at 12:52, peaked at 13:00 as M2.3 and ended at 13:11 UTC. The source was Region 2644.

A 10cm Radio Burst (peak flux 110 sfu) beginning at 12:56 and lasting 1 minute was associated with this event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

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7 M-class solar flares from geoeffective region

Geoeffective Active Region 2673 produced 7 M-class and at least 8 C-class solar flares on September 4, 2017. The strongest was M5.5 at 20:33 UTC associated with an asymmetric full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). This region has the potential to produce more strong to major eruptions on the Sun, including X-class flares. Its location currently favors Earth-directed CMEs.

This impressive region grew vigorously over the past 48 hours, suddenly becoming one of the largest regions of the year. It now has 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic configuration and is capable of producing strong to major eruptions on the Sun. Since the region will remain geoeffective today and in the days ahead, Earth-directed CMEs are likely.

The first solar flare of the day was produced at 05:49 UTC measuring M1.2. It was followed by M1.5 at 15:30 UTC, M1.0 at 18:22 UTC, M1.7 (associated with a Type IV Radio Emission) at 19:37 UTC, M1.5 at 20:02 UTC, M5.5 (associated with a Type II Radio Emission and 10cm Radio Burst) at 20:33 UTC, and M2.1 at 22:14 UTC.

The strongest event from this region, thus far, is M5.5 solar flare which started at 20:28, peaked at 20:33 and ended at 20:37 UTC. This flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 1 472 km/s and a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 52 minutes with peak flux of 1 600 sfu.

Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a CME was produced. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

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Major X9.3 flare erupts from active region
A major X-class solar flare erupted from geoeffective Active Region 2673 peaking as X9.3 at 12:02 UTC on September 6, 2017. The event started at 11:53, peaked at 12:02 and ended at 12:10 UTC. This is the second X-class solar flare of the day. It comes just hours after a long-duration X2.2 at 09:33 UTC. It is also the strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24).

Radio signatures suggest a strong Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced during this event.

The event was associated with a Type IV and Type II (estimated velocity 1969 km/s). Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

In addition, this impressive event was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 3 minutes with peak flux of 12000 sfu.

Today's X9.3 is the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 24. Although X-class solar flares were expected (25% chance) since Region 2673 rapidly grew into a monster region and attained 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic configuration, such powerful flare comes as a huge surprise, as our star is heading toward Solar Minimum. The previous record for the strongest flare of the cycle was X6.9 of August 9, 2011.

The cycle so far had 47 X-class flares, including today's X2.2 and X9.3.

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M8.1 solar flare produced
A strong solar flare measuring M8.1 at its peak erupted from Active Region 2673 at 07:49 UTC on September 8, 2017. The event started at 07:40 and ended at 07:58 UTC.

This is the third M-class solar flare of the day and the 18th since September 4, when the first M-class solar flare erupted from this region. Over those 4 days, we have also registered 3 major solar flares - X2.2, X9.3 and X1.3 and several Earth-directed CMEs. Some of them have already hit our planet, causing G4 - Severe geomagnetic storming.

There were no radio signatures associated with today's M8.1 flare suggesting a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced.

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Op woensdag 14 maart 2018 03:56 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:

twitter:

MailOnline twitterde op dinsdag 13-03-2018 om 12:53:07 Massive solar storm will slam Earth TOMORROW https://t.co/2B2JRW7VsP reageer retweet

_{Ja, de Daily overdrijft wellicht een beetje}

twitter:

halocme twitterde op maandag 06-05-2019 om 08:36:44 This is amazing! AR 12740, which is an old cycle region and I honestly have not expected much, has produced a C9.9 (almost M-class) flare. The flare was very short duration, but note the spectacular large-scale coronal propagating front in the difference movie! https://t.co/LVwMsVdrEq reageer retweet

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C9.9 solar flare erupts from AR 2740, the strongest since October 2017

A moderately strong solar flare measuring C9.9 erupted from AR 2740 (Beta-Delta) at 05:10 UTC on May 6, 2019. The event started at 05:04 UTC and ended at 05:12 UTC. This is the strongest solar flare since M1.0 at 23:28 UTC on October 20, 2017.

A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 740 km/s was associated with the event, suggesting a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced by the flare event.

The current position of this region does not favor Earth-directed flares.

This is the strongest solar flare in 2018 and 2019. The second strongest since January 1, 2018 was C8.1 at 13:47 UTC on February 7, 2018 and the third strongest C5.3 at 03:12 UTC on March 21, 2019.

Solar Cycle 24 produced a total of 49 X-class flares. The strongest was X9.3 at 12:02 UTC on September 6, 2017, followed by X8.2 at 16:06 UTC on September 10, 2017, X6.9 at 08:05 UTC on August 9, 2011, X5.4 at 00:24 UTC on March 7, 2012 and X4.9 at 00:49 UTC on February 25, 2014.

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NASA's probe soaring near sun reveals surprises about solar wind

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Troves of new data from a NASA probe’s close encounters with the sun are giving scientists unique insight about the solar wind and space weather more generally as the spacecraft zooms through the outermost part of the star’s atmosphere.

Researchers on Wednesday described the first published findings from the Parker Solar Probe, a spacecraft launched in 2018 to journey closer to the sun than any other human-made object. The findings, offering fresh details about how the sun spawns space weather, are reshaping astronomers’ understanding of violent solar wind that can hamper satellites and electronics on Earth.

“We were certainly hoping we’d see new phenomena and new processes when we got close to the sun - and we certainly did,” Nicola Fox, director of the U.S. space agency’s heliophysics division, told reporters. “Some of the information that we found pretty much confirmed what we expected, but some of it is totally unexpected.”

Earth is roughly 93 million miles from the sun. The probe ventured as close as 15 million miles (24 million km) to the sun to gather the data used in the studies published in the journal Nature. The probe eventually will travel within about 4 million miles (6 million km) from the sun’s surface, seven times closer than any previous spacecraft.

The probe has endured extreme heat while flying through the outermost part of the sun’s atmosphere, called the solar corona, that gives rise to solar wind - the hot, energized, charged particles that stream outward from the Sun and fill the solar system.

Oscillations in the speed of these charged particles beaming outward from the solar corona have previously been thought to dissipate gradually, much like the waves seen after plucking a guitar string fading from the middle.

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One of the probe’s “really big surprises,” according to one of the researchers, was the detection of sudden, abrupt spikes in the speed of the solar wind that were so violent that the magnetic field flips itself around, a phenomenon called “switchbacks.”

“We’re finding these discrete, powerful waves that wash over the spacecraft, kind of like rogue waves in an ocean,” said Justin Kasper, a principal investigator whose team at the University of Michigan built a solar wind-sensing instrument on the Parker probe. “They carry a tremendous amount of energy.”

“This will dramatically change our theories for how the corona and solar wind are being heated,” Kasper added.

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Cosmic radiation around reaching record high levels
Cosmic radiation around us reaching record high levels as the Sun sets Space Age record for most days without spots

Cosmic radiation has hit the 5-year high this month and is approaching record high values as the Sun sets a new Space Age record for spotlessness -- days without sunspots. The Sun’s magnetic field weakens during solar minimums, allowing deep space cosmic radiation to flood the Solar System.

Cosmic radiation is increasing since 2014 when Solar Cycle 24 peaked and the Sun headed toward very deep Solar Minimum we are experiencing right now. SC24 reached its maximum in April 2014 with 23 months smoothed sunspot number of only 81.8 -- one of the weakest solar cycles on record.

In 2019, the Sun has been without spots for 270 days or 77%, as of December 16, which is the highest number of spotless days on the Sun since the Space Age began in 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 by the Soviet Union.

The current Solar Minimum, the same as the previous one (2008/2009), is very deep -- referred to as 'century-class' minimum. The only year with more spotless days was 1913 with 311.

The previous Space Age record for the year with most spotless days was set in 2008 with 168

"As 2019 comes to a close, neutron monitors at Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland are approaching those same levels. Indeed, a new record could be just weeks or months away," Dr. Tony Phillips of the SpaceWeather.com notes.

"Neutron monitors in Oulu are getting results similar to ours," Phillips said, referring to Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray measurements. "Oulu data show that cosmic rays have been increasing for the past 5 years and, moreover, are within percentage points of the Space Age record."

"We use X-ray and gamma-ray detectors sensitive to energies in the range 10 keV to 20 MeV," Phillips said.

"This type of radiation, which you can also find in medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners, has increased more than 20% in the stratosphere."

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Study finds correlation between solar activity and large earthquakes worldwide

A new study published in the Nature Scientific Reports on July 13 suggests that powerful eruptions on the Sun can trigger large earthquakes on Earth. In the paper, the authors analyzed 20 years of proton density and velocity data, as recorded by the SOHO satellite, and the worldwide seismicity in the corresponding period, as reported by the ISC-GEM catalogue. They found a clear correlation between proton density and the occurrence of large earthquakes (M > 5.6), with a time shift of one day.

The Sun may seem relatively docile, but it is constantly bombarding the solar system with energy and particles in the form of the solar wind.

Sometimes, eruptions on the Sun's surface cause coronal mass ejections that hurtle through the solar system at extremely fast rates.

The new study suggests that particles from eruptions like this may be responsible for triggering groups of powerful earthquakes.

"Large earthquakes all around the world are not evenly distributed-- there is some correlation among them," said co-author Giuseppe De Natale, research director at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Rome, Italy.

"We have tested the hypothesis that solar activity can influence the worldwide [occurrence of earthquakes]."

Scientists noted a pattern in some massive earthquakes around the planet-- they tend to occur in groups, not randomly. This indicates that there may be some global phenomenon triggering these worldwide tremors.

To address this, researchers searched through 20 years of data on both earthquakes and solar activity-- specifically from NASA-ESA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite-- seeking any probable correlations.

SOHO, located about 1.45 million km (900 000 miles) from our planet, monitors the Sun, which helps scientists track how much solar material strikes the Earth.

By comparing the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue-- a historical record of powerful tremors-- to SOHO data, the researchers noticed more strong earthquakes happened when the number and velocities of incoming solar protons increased.

When protons from the Sun peaked, there was also a spike in earthquakes above M5.6 for the next 24 hours.

"This statistical test of the hypothesis is very significant," said De Natale. "The probability that it's just by chance that we observe this, is very, very low-- less than 1 in 100 000."

After noticing there was a correlation between solar proton flux and strong earthquakes, the researchers went on to propose a mechanism called the reverse piezoelectric effect.

Compressing quartz rock, something common in the Earth's crust, can produce electrical pulse through a process called the piezoelectric effect. The researchers think that such small pulses could destabilize faults that are nearing rupture, triggering earthquakes. Signals from electromagnetic evens, such as earthquake lightning and radio waves, have been recorded occurring alongside quakes in the past.

Some scientists think these events are caused by the quakes themselves, but other studies have spotted strong electromagnetic anomalies before huge earthquakes and not after, so the exact nature of the correlation of earthquakes and electromagnetic fields is still debated.

Meanwhile, this new explanation suggests that electromagnetic anomalies are not the result of earthquakes, but cause them instead. As positively charged protons from the Sun hit the Earth's magnetic bubble, they generate electromagnetic currents that propagate across the world. Pulses created by these currents go on to deform quartz in the crust, ultimately triggering earthquakes.

Abstract
Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognized to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant correlation of the global seismicity with one of the possible mechanisms has been demonstrated yet. In this paper, we analyze 20 years of proton density and velocity data, as recorded by the SOHO satellite, and the worldwide seismicity in the corresponding period, as reported by the ISC-GEM catalogue. We found clear correlation between proton density and the occurrence of large earthquakes (M > 5.6), with a time shift of one day. The significance of such correlation is very high, with probability to be wrong lower than 10–5. The correlation increases with the magnitude threshold of the seismic catalogue. A tentative model explaining such a correlation is also proposed, in terms of the reverse piezoelectric effect induced by the applied electric field related to the proton density. This result opens new perspectives in seismological interpretations, as well as in earthquake forecast.

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Moderately strong M2.8 solar flare erupts from AR 2871
A moderately strong solar flare measuring M2.8 at its peak erupted from Active Region 2871 at 04:42 UTC on September 23, 2021. The event started at 04:35 and ended at 04:50 UTC.

The flare was associated with a Type II Radio Emission at 04:44 UTC with an estimated velocity of 966 km/s. These emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.

Additionally, a Type IV Radio Emission was registered at 04:54 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

This region has beta-delta magnetic configuration and is capable of producing moderate to strong eruptions with Earth-directed CMEs, but it appears most of the material released during this eruption is heading south.

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Op woensdag 3 november 2021 15:44 schreef sirdanilot het volgende:
Ik vraag me af, ik had ooit gelezen over de mogelijkheid van een CME zonnevlam die alle elektriciteitsnetwerken op aarde kunnen platleggen. Maar ik vraag me dan dus af hoe lang van tevoren zouden we dat kunnen zien aankomen? Of zou het opeens als een knipperlicht gewoon donker worden overal 's nachts

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Major X2.2 solar flare erupts just beyond the southwest limb of the Sun

A major solar flare measuring X2.2 at its peak erupted at 03:57 UTC on April 20, 2022, from a region located just beyond the southwest limb of the Sun – likely former Region 2992. The event started at 03:41 UTC and ended at 04:04.

The flare was associated with multiple bursts on specific radio frequencies, including a burst of 509 solar flux units on 2 695 MHz.

Additionally, a Type II Radio Emission was detected by the USAF Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN), with an estimated velocity of 1 630 km/s. This radio signature is often indicative of a potential coronal mass ejection (CME).

Coronagraph imagery from the NASA/SOHO LASCO instrument are still not available to confirm if a CME took place.

However, as the source region of the flare was beyond the southwest limb, initial analysis suggests any CME is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component.

Other notable events of the day include M1.2 from AR 2994 at 01:14 UTC and M7.2 from AR 2992 at 01:36 UTC.

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Een magnetische golf dendert richting aarde: dit is wat het voor ons betekent

De Amerikaanse weerdienst SWPC komt met de dreigende voorspelling dat een magnetische golf met honderden kilometers per seconde op onze planeet afkomt. Daarbij zou de golf een "geomagnetische storm" veroorzaken. Grote paniek lijkt onnodig, de aarde zal niet ineens stoppen met draaien. Toch is er een flinke kans dat we er wat van gaan merken.

De voorspelling is het gevolg van de zon die de afgelopen tijd veel actiever is geweest. Zo stuurt ze niet alleen zonnestralen, maar ook plasma en magnetische velden richting de aarde. SWPC, die het ruimteweer in de gaten houdt, ziet de intensiteit van die velden toenemen en komt daarom met een speciaal weerbericht.

Daarin waarschuwt de Amerikaanse organisatie met name voor de gasbellen (oftewel CME's) die de zon onlangs wegblies. Die bellen zitten vol magnetische kracht en kunnen een flinke impact hebben als ze botsen met het magnetische veld rond de aarde. "Geomagnetische reacties zullen donderdag waarschijnlijk escaleren tot een sterke kracht van het niveau G3", luidt de Amerikaanse voorspelling.

Het SWPC deelt de magnetische stormen in op een schaal van 1 tot 5. Bij 1 gaat het om een kleine storm, bij 5 om een extreme. Zover zal het deze week niet komen. Het negatiefste scenario is dat donderdag een storm van niveau 3 de aarde bereikt.

Kans op storingen bij satellieten en in het elektriciteitsnet
Bij de zwaarste magnetische storm moeten we volgens het weerstation rekening houden met problemen met satellietnavigatie. Ook kunnen er storingen ontstaan op radiosystemen met een lage frequentie.

Mocht de geomagnetische reactie sterker uitvallen dan verwacht, dan kunnen zelfs elektriciteitscentrales er hinder van ondervinden. Ook moeten ruimtevaartuigen vanwege de impact mogelijk hun koers bijstellen.

De zon laat regelmatig zien hoe groot haar magnetische kracht is. Afgelopen februari nog betekende een magnetische storm een erg kostbare tegenvaller voor Elon Musk. Veertig van zijn net gelanceerde Space X-satellieten kwamen in een storm terecht waarbij ze compleet werden vernietigd.

Poollicht een stuk zuidelijker zichtbaar
Er zijn niet alleen maar negatieve effecten. Zo hoef je dankzij de magnetische kracht niet naar Noorwegen of IJsland om het groene poollicht te zien. Magnetische velden duwen dat poollicht verder richting het zuiden.

Vanwege de magnetische krachten van de aarde en de zon kon je eind vorig jaar met een beetje geluk ook in Nederland een deel van het poollicht zien. De kans dat dit de komende dagen opnieuw lukt, lijkt erg klein.

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THE IMPACTS HAVE BEGUN: A minor CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 17th (0303 UT). It could be the first of several CME strikes in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters say their cumulative effect could cause strong G3-class geomagnetic storms, especially on Aug. 18-19. During such storms naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50 degrees). Cameras with sensitive night-sky settings may record auroras even farther south than that

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Vandaag kans op verstoorde navigatie en communicatiemiddelen door geomagnetische stormen

De aarde wordt vandaag mogelijk getroffen door een geomagnetische storm. Hierdoor kunnen navigatie- en communicatiemiddelen verstoord raken. In februari verloor SpaceX al veertig net gelanceerde satellieten door zo'n zonnestorm.

Ook in de ruimte zijn er 'weersverschijnselen'. "Er waait gas in de ruimte met een snelheid van meer dan honderden meters per seconde," vertelt Michiel Brentjens, radio-astronoom bij Astron. "Die snelheid varieert, maar is veel sneller dan op aarde. Er vinden explosies plaats op de zon en morgen komen we in een snelle windstroming die van de zon afkomt. Daardoor komen er morgen waarschijnlijk schokgolven bij de aarde aan en kunnen er zogeheten geomagnetische stormen ontstaan."

De afgelopen jaren was de zon minder actief en kalm, zegt Brentjens. "Toen waren deze stormen dus zeldzaam, maar naar verwachting is de zon rond 2025 en 2026 heel actief waardoor er meer ontploffingen zijn. Dat betekent dat er meer geomagnetische stormen zijn waar af en toe een grote bij zal zitten."

"Er is een mogelijkheid dat bij communicatiemiddelen van militairen of van scheep- en luchtvaart verbindingen wegvallen of niet tot stand kunnen komen voor een beperkte tijd." Ook kan de gps minder precies worden. "De gps zal dan niet totaal wegvallen, maar het lijkt of je naast de weg rijdt terwijl je wel op de weg bent." Brentjens acht de kans klein dat dit morgen gebeurt, maar vindt het belangrijk om hierop voorbereid te zijn.

Heftig ruimteweer
Bij heftiger ruimteweer, dat de komende jaren zou kunnen voorkomen, kunnen navigatie- en communicatiemiddelen volledig wegvallen voor een groot deel van de dag. Ook kan het aardmagneetveld bij heftiger ruimteweer verstoord raken door schokgolven die van de zon komen. Onze elektriciteitsnetwerken kunnen dan als dynamo gaan werken en zelf stroom opwekken."

Daar zijn de elektriciteitsnetwerken echter niet voor ontworpen. In 1989 is dit in Canada gebeurd en zijn de hoofdtransformatoren door overbelasting gesmolten. "Deze transformatoren moesten toen te veel stroom verwerken."

Naar verwachting zal dit in Nederland de komende jaren niet gebeuren. "Dit komt doordat Nederland relatief zuidelijk is gelegen. Scandinavische landen zijn daar veel gevoeliger voor."

Lastig te voorspellen
Het voorspellen van ruimteweer is nog een stuk lastiger dan dat van het weer op aarde. "Weerstations hebben we overal verspreid in onze dampkring. Dus we kunnen continu onze modellen updaten en controleren." Dit is niet het geval bij ruimteweer, want er is nog geen weerstation tussen de aarde en de zon."

Er wordt momenteel in Drenthe geprobeerd om met een LOFAR-radiotelescoop verbeterde voorspellingen te maken

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Op maandag 9 januari 2023 20:44 schreef MissHobje het volgende:

[..]
Krijgen we daar last van?

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Continued likelihood of M-class flares and a chance of X-class through January 13

Solar activity is expected to remain moderate through January 13, with the continuing likelihood of M-class flares (70%) and a chance of X-class events (30%) due primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 3181, 3182, 3184, and 3186. A total of 3 X-class solar flares erupted since January 6, including X2.2 — the second strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar activity reached high levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on January 11, 2023, following an impulsive X1/2b flare — the third X-class solar flare since January 61 — from Region 3186 (beta-delta) which was the most active region during the period and the source of an M5/Sf (R2-Moderate) flare at 00:16 UTC on January 10, an M1.3 flare at 17:28 UTC, and multiple C-class flares.

The region appeared to possess a delta configuration from likely mixed polarity umbrae within the leader penumbral area.2

X1.0 solar f lare on January 10. This is the third X-class solar flare over the past 5 days, following X1.2 at 00:52 UTC on January 6 and X1.9 at 18:50 UTC on January 9 — the second strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25
Additionally, Region 3181 (beta-gamma) grew in coverage and spread in heliographic extent and produced a few M-class flares.

Region 3182 (beta-gamma-delta) — the source of the X1.2 solar flare on January 6 — weakened but retained its bipolar configuration, mainly producing optical subflares.3

Region 3184 (beta-delta) rotated further into view and despite some foreshortening, produced a few M-class flares. This was the source of the X1.9 solar flare on January 9.4

New Region 3187 (alpha) was assigned, but the region was inactive while Region 3185 (beta) produced a C5.3 flare.

The remaining regions changed little or underwent some decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

olar activity is likely to remain moderate through January 13, with the continuing likelihood of M-class flares (70%) and a chance of X-class events (30%) due primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 3181, 3182, 3184, and 3186.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels during the period and is expected to be normal to moderate through January 13. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, with a slight chance of an S1 -Minor solar radiation storm due to the combined solar energetic proton event potential of the several large sunspot group complexes present.

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a minor disturbance in the IMF and slight escalation in solar wind speed, likely due to proximity to an anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Disturbances and enhancements in the solar wind field are likely to continue on January 11 due to effects from proximity to or weak connection with an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Any influences are anticipated to wane on January 12 and a return to a more ambient-like state is expected on January 13.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to the mildly enhanced and disturbed solar wind field, and the same conditions are expected to continue through January 11, with a return to mainly quiet levels on January 12 and 13.

X1.0 solar flare erupts from Region 3186 — CME produced

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Op zondag 26 februari 2023 22:46 schreef Starhopper het volgende:
Ik zie nu zwak poollicht aan de horizon Op de foto's is het waanzinnig!

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G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storming due to CH HSS effects combined with CME

Our planet is under the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) today, March 15, 2023, combined with an impact from the coronal mass ejection (CME) produced on March 10. G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm threshold was reached at 05:59 UTC and the geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a chance for isolated G2 – Moderate periods on March 15 and 16 due to any flanking effects from CMEs produced on March 11 to 13.

The solar wind environment in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on March 16 reflected positive polarity CH HSS onset and what is likely transient influence from CME produced on March 10.

The total field peaked at 16 nT near 04:31 UTC on March 14. The Bz component was primarily +/- 11 nT with a few sustained southward deflections of -6 to -8 nT. Phi was positive but became somewhat variable between approximately 07:00 on March 14.

Positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue mostly through March 17.

A CME, likely produced on March 11, impacted Earth at 04:28 UTC on March 15.

Geomagnetic K-index of 6 threshold — G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm, was reached about an hour and a half later, at 05:59 UTC.

G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm potential impacts:

Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

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‘Zonnestorm kan grootste file aller tijden veroorzaken’
De autonome auto’s van morgen worden geprogrammeerd om te kunnen omgaan met barre winterse omstandigheden, onoplettende voetgangers en zelfs vogelpoep, maar het grootste gevaar kan een zonnestorm zijn die de gps-communicatie uitschakelt en wegen verandert in gigantische parkeerterreinen.

Bloomberg waarschuwde al eerder voor een overmatige afhankelijkheid van satellietgegevens, aangezien deze problemen kunnen veroorzaken voor zelfrijdende voertuigen. De zon produceert namelijk regelmatig zonnevlammen en plasmawolken en slingert daarbij magnetische velden en allerlei geladen deeltjes de ruimte in. Meestal merken we weinig van deze zogeheten zonnestormen, behalve door het kleurrijke Noorderlicht rond de polen, veroorzaakt doordat geladen deeltjes botsen met de bovenste atmosfeer. Maar het probleem is dat ze tevens de communicatie op aarde kunnen verstoren.

Cyclus
Zonnestormen worden, net als orkanen, qua intensiteit beoordeeld op een schaal van 1 tot 5. Nasa heeft twee ruimtevaartuigen beschikbaar die de zonneactiviteit in de gaten houden en de Amerikaanse luchtmacht heeft ook een systeem ontwikkeld om mogelijke verstoringen van communicatie- en navigatiesystemen te voorspellen. Op dit moment lijken we ons in een pauze van zonneactiviteit te bevinden. De uitbarstingen volgen over het algemeen een cyclus van elf jaar, die het laatst zijn hoogtepunt bereikte in 2014.

Perfecte storm
Vaak zijn de zonnevlammen en plasmawolken niet op de aarde gericht. En zelfs als dat wel het geval is, hebben we altijd het beschermende aardmagnetisch veld nog. Maar ook dat aardmagnetisch veld kan ons niet beschermen tegen ‘The Perfect Storm‘: een samenloop van omstandigheden die leidt tot extreem, op de aarde gericht, ruimteweer. Dat gebeurde bijvoorbeeld in 1859 toen de zon ervoor zorgde dat de telegraafverbinding tussen Europa en Amerika door kortsluiting uitviel. En in 1989 zorgde een plasmawolk ervoor dat een elektriciteitsnetwerk in Canada werd uitgeschakeld, waardoor 6 miljoen mensen meer dan negen uur zonder stroom zaten.

12 procent
Maar hoe groot is nu de kans dat we op korte termijn weer zo’n heftig scenario voor de kiezen krijgen? In 2012 stelden deskundigen dat de kans dat we binnen tien jaar wederom getroffen worden door een zonnestorm zoals we die in 1859 zagen, ongeveer 12 procent is. Mede daarom nemen ingenieurs van geautomatiseerde auto’s en vrachtwagens stappen om onverwachte storingen zoals zonnestormen op te vangen. Sommige zelfrijdende systemen bevatten bijvoorbeeld regionale kaarten waarmee auto’s zonder satellietnavigatie de volgende snelwegafrit kunnen vinden.

Mad Max
Volgens experts in kunstmatige intelligentie zijn er voldoende veiligheidsmaatregelen ingebouwd om een Mad Max-achtig scenario op snelwegen na een zonnestorm te voorkomen. Volgens Danny Shapiro van Nvidia, een techbedrijf dat gespecialiseerd is in onder andere kunstmatige intelligentie, zouden auto’s in het slechtste geval zichzelf stilzetten op de vluchtstrook. ,,De meeste auto’s zijn bovendien niet permanent afhankelijk van gps-gegevens wanneer ze door de stad navigeren.”

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Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 124
Issue Time: 2023 Mar 23 1450 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2023 Mar 23 1446 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

quote:

Unexpected G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm

A combination of factors led to unexpectedly strong geomagnetic storm levels on Thursday, March 23, and Friday, March 24, 2023. The storm reached G3 – Strong levels at 14:49 UTC on March 23 and escalated to G4 – Severe at 04:04 UTC on March 24. The precise cause of this geomagnetic storm is still under investigation, but it is possible that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from March 20 to 21 played a role.

This is the most intense geomagnetic storm in nearly 6 years.

Geomagnetic storms of this intensity occur on average 100 times per solar cycle

Initially, SWPC predicted that the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) would disturb the geomagnetic field, leading to G1 – Minor conditions on March 23. This disturbance, along with nearby transients, was expected to produce G2 – Moderate conditions on March 24. However, contrary to predictions, the geomagnetic field exhibited G3 – Strong levels on March 23 and G4 – Severe early on March 24.

The unanticipated intensity of the geomagnetic storm may have resulted from a stealthy CME or a combination of events, including CMEs from March 20 and 21.

G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm potential impacts:

The area of impact is primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm impacts:

The area of impact is primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

quote:

Strongest solar storm in nearly 6 years slams into Earth catching forecasters by surprise

The most powerful solar storm in nearly six years slammed Earth today (March 24), but strangely, space weather forecasters didn't see it coming.

The geomagnetic storm peaked as a severe G4 on the 5-grade scale used by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to assess the severity of space weather events. The storm's unexpected ferocity not only made auroras visible as far south as New Mexico in the U.S., but it also forced spaceflight company Rocket Lab to delay a launch by 90 minutes.

Geomagnetic storms are disturbances to Earth's magnetic field caused by solar material from coronal mass ejections (CME) — large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the sun's atmosphere. It turns out that this particular geomagnetic storm was triggered by a "stealth" CME which — as the name suggests — is rather tricky to detect.

NOAA's National Space Weather Service originally announced a "geomagnetic storm watch" on March 22(opens in new tab), to come into effect on 23-25 March with possible moderate G2 storm conditions expected on March 24. So forecasters weren't completely caught off-guard, they however didn't expect a magnitude G4 storm.

It wasn't until 00:41 a.m. EDT ( 0441 GMT) on March 24 that NOAA uprated the warning to a severe G4 storm, which was after a stronger than forecasted G3 storm (opens in new tab)escalated to a G4 at 12:04 a.m. EDT (0404 GMT).

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Impulsive X1.2 solar flare erupts
An impulsive solar flare measuring X1.2 at its peak erupted from AR 3256 at 02:33 UTC on March 29, 2023. The event started at 02:18 and ended at 02:40 UTC.

There were no radio signatures suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the West Pacific Ocean, parts of eastern China and Russia, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Australia.

Region 3256 is now approaching the west limb and will start its farside rotation in a couple of days.

Solar activity was at low levels until this solar flare and is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class flares through March 31.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1 810 pfu observed at GOES-16 at 14:20 UTC on March 28.1

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through March 31. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through March 31, possibly decreasing to moderate levels on March 30 with the arrival of the next negative polarity CH HSS.

Solar wind parameters were mostly at background levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on March 29. The IMF was relaxed with total field averaging around 6 nT and Bz undergoing few if any significant southward deviations. Wind speeds were unreliable from DSCOVR given the low density environment, but ACE showed speeds generally at 400 km/s or less. The phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector towards the Sun. Nominal levels are expected to continue through March 29 and the first half of March 30. Another negative polarity CH HSS is forecast to arrive midday on March 30, with elevated levels of activity lasting through March 31.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on March 29. Mostly quiet levels are expected on March 29 and the first half of March 30.

Active conditions are expected starting midday on March 30 through March 31 with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. There is also a chance for G1 – Minor geomagnetic storms on March 30 and 31 with this activity.

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M6.5 solar flare erupts from Region 3296, CME produced on May 7 heading our way

A moderately strong M6.5 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3296 at 03:54 UTC on May 9, 2023. The event started at 03:42 and ended at 04:05 UTC. This was the 12th M-class solar flare since M4.3 on May 3. It was followed by M1.2 at 06:13 UTC, also from Region 3296. The CME produced on May 7 was modeled and analyzed and the likely result is impact to Earth late on May 10 to early May 11.

A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 641 km/s was registered at 03:53 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.

In addition, a 10cm Radio Burst, lasting 6 minutes and with a peak flux of 360 sfu, was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

The location of Region 3296 (beta-gamma) still favors Earth-directed CMEs.

The region underwent growth in the intermediate section and some decay in the leader area over the past 24 hours. The mixed polarity signature strengthened, nearly developed a delta signature, and was the source of multiple C-class flares, including the largest of the period, an M2.3 flare at 20:25 UTC on May 8.

The partial halo CME first detected in NASA SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery at 23:12 UTC on May 7 UTC produced by a long-duration M1 flare late May 7 was analyzed and modeled several times. The concurrence is a likely Earth-directed component to this CME from late May 10 to early May 11. However, there is a disparity in model results regarding flanking influences or a more pronounced geoeffective arrival.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 – Minor storm levels at 11:50 UTC on May 9 and the storm is still in progress. A general decline in levels is anticipated and sub-S1 levels are likely by May 10, with a chance that S1 levels may still be occurring.

Continuing, gradual decrease in flux is expected and a return to background conditions, albeit elevated levels, are anticipated on 11 May. There is also a slight chance that S1 levels may still be reached. There is also a risk of a re-enhancement ahead of a CME arrival later on May 10 to early May 11. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at mainly normal-moderate levels, with a chance of high levels in response to the recent CH HSS and CME influences.

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Moderately strong M6.8 solar flare erupts from the NE limb of the Sun

A moderately strong solar flare measuring M6.8 erupted from a region located on the northeastern limb of the Sun at 18:08 UTC on July 11, 2023. The event started at 17:51 and ended at 18:16 UTC.

There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of the source region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. This will change in the days ahead as the region rotates toward the center of the disk.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the United States, Canada, Central America, and parts of South America at the time of the flare.

Over the past 24 hours, this region produced several C-class flares, including a C8.0 at 02:14 UTC on July 11.

Solar activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours, with several M-class flares, including M2.3 at 03:55 UTC and M1.4 at 22:18 UTC on July 10, followed by M2.0 at 14:35 UTC, M1.1 at 16:12 UTC, the aforementioned M6.8 at 18:08 and M1.0 at 19:29 UTC.

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M1 – M2 (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X1 (R3/Strong) flare through July 13, according to SWPC.

In 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux flirted with high levels, but fell just short with a maximum of 933 pfu at 18:10 UTC yesterday. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at or near background levels. A slight enhancement was associated with the M2 flare early on July 10. A CME produced by this flare was extensively modeled and all SWPC results show the primary ejecta missing Earth ahead of its orbit. However, some possible shock arrival influences cannot be ruled out on July 12.

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 315 – 350 km/s, the total field ranged from 4 – 6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Moderately strong M6.8 solar flare erupts from the NE limb of the Sun

quote:

Global SAR arc outbreak: Geomagnetic storm leads to rare SAR arc sightings across the globe

On November 5, 2023, observers across the globe were treated to a striking light show, courtesy of a G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm. This solar event was powerful enough to push the typically high-latitude auroras into lower latitudes, with sightings as far south as Texas and Arizona in the United States, as well as in European countries like Italy and Greece. Sightings were also reported in Australia and New Zealand.

Initial reports suggested these lights were auroras, but a closer examination revealed a different story. The red glows captured in images were identified as “SAR arcs,” a term dating back to their discovery in 1956. Dr. Tony Philipps of SpaceWeather.com highlighted this misnomer, emphasizing that SAR arcs are neither stable nor true auroras.

Unlike auroras, which are created by charged particles from space interacting with the Earth’s atmosphere, SAR arcs originate from a different process. They signal the presence of heat energy escaping into the upper atmosphere from the Earth’s ring current system. This system, shaped like a doughnut, encircles our planet, carrying a current measured in millions of amperes.

The recent geomagnetic storm energized the ring current, leading to the widespread appearance of SAR arcs. Jeff Baumgardner from the Center for Space Physics at Boston University noted that the event was truly global, with their equipment detecting SAR arc activity stretching from Italy to New Zealand.

SAR arcs have an unexpected link to another phenomenon known as STEVE (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), which, like SAR arcs, is not an aurora.

In a notable observation from 2015, a red SAR arc in New Zealand was seen transforming into STEVE, suggesting a metamorphosis similar to a caterpillar becoming a butterfly. This transformation was seemingly echoed on November 5 over Northumberland, UK, when Mark Savage observed STEVE emerge from a SAR arc in a matter of minutes, a timeline consistent with another observed transition in Canada in April 2022.

While the connection between SAR arcs and STEVE is evident, the exact nature of their relationship remains elusive. Carlos Martinis, a leading researcher at Boston University, conveys that sometimes SAR arcs develop into STEVE, but not invariably. This active area of research benefits from the participation of both citizen scientists and professional researchers, contributing to a growing understanding of these fascinating atmospheric phenomena.

The G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm that occurred on Sunday, November 5, 2023, was the result of a one-two punch from two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that had left the Sun on November 2 and 3.

The initial CME set the stage, but it was the compounded effect of the two that led to the geomagnetic storm classified as G3, indicating strong effects that can have impacts on satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems on Earth.

The early indications of the storm’s potential were evident when solar wind enhancement was first detected at 08:10 UTC on November 5, with instruments measuring a substantial rise in the solar wind’s total field strength to 34 nT. The significant southward deflection of the magnetic field, or the Bz component, dipped to -27 nT, signaling a strong interaction was underway.

Though this initial phase did not exhibit extremely high velocities, peaking at 434 km/s, the conditions were set for a more intense second shock.

This subsequent jolt, arriving at 11:46 UTC, brought a notable increase in total field strength to 45 nT. Over the following hours, the Bz component remained strongly negative, fluctuating between -15 and -20 nT, indicative of a robust geomagnetic disturbance. The solar wind speed surged to 517 km/s, then settled into a faster-than-average stream of 460 – 480 km/s, sustaining the storm conditions and facilitating the remarkable global display of SAR arcs and the potential observation of the SAR to STEVE transformation.

quote:

Another incoming CME, impact expected on November 11

A long-duration C-Class solar flare near the Sun’s center disk produced a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) shortly after 11:15 UTC on November 9, 2023. The CME is anticipated to impact Earth around 18:00 UTC on November 11, potentially triggering a G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm. Concurrently, a minor polar cap absorption event is affecting shortwave radio transmissions in polar regions.

Solar activity in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on November 10 was at low levels, primarily characterized by C-class flare activity. However, the Sun managed to produce a halo CME, with impact to Earth expected around 18:00 UTC on November 11.

A long-duration C-Class solar flare near the Sun’s center disk produced a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) shortly after 11:15 UTC on November 9, 2023. The CME is anticipated to impact Earth around 18:00 UTC on November 11, potentially triggering a G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm. Concurrently, a minor polar cap absorption event is affecting shortwave radio transmissions in polar regions.

Solar activity in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on November 10 was at low levels, primarily characterized by C-class flare activity. However, the Sun managed to produce a halo CME, with impact to Earth expected around 18:00 UTC on November 11.

The forecast predicts continued low solar activity with a slight chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts from November 10 to 12.

During the last 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked at 2 560 pfu at 15:10 UTC on November 9, indicating high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux rose above background levels after 16:30 UTC, reaching around 2 pfu. Over the next few days, high electron flux levels are expected, normalizing by November 12. There is also a possibility of a minor proton event reaching the S1 – Minor threshold on November 10.

Solar wind parameters over the past day have been influenced by sustained negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The total field strength remained steady near 5 nT, with the Bz component varying up to +/- 4 nT. However, solar wind speed readings from DSCOVR were inconsistent. Enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated on November 11 and 12 due to the expected arrival of the November 9 CME, predicted to reach Earth around 18:00 UTC on November 11.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet and unsettled levels due to ongoing CH HSS influences. The forecast for November 10 maintains this outlook, attributing it to negative polarity CH HSS effects. However, from November 11 to 12, periods of G1 – G2 (Minor to Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely, linked to the anticipated arrival of the November 9 CME.

quote:

Op dinsdag 28 november 2023 20:36 schreef Starhopper het volgende:
Uiteindelijk een M9.8! Centraal op de schijf

[ afbeelding ]

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Mooie plaatjes én een klein risico op verstoringen door zonnestormen

Verstoorde satellieten; elektriciteitsnetwerken die uitvallen; piloten die niet meer kunnen opstijgen of de weg kwijtraken; het internet dat misschien wel weken plat komt te liggen. Het zijn een aantal huiveringwekkende voorbeelden die recent zijn genoemd in de (sociale) media van de impact op aarde van zonnestormen. Maar hoe realistisch is dat? Moeten we ons zorgen maken?

Eerst over die zonnestormen. Die zijn er eigenlijk voortdurend wel, maar ze zijn nu vaker in het nieuws. Dat komt doordat de zonneactiviteit aan het einde zit van een cyclus, die gemiddeld ruim elf jaar duurt. Aan het eind van zo'n periode komen er meer zonnestormen voor.

Zo'n storm bestaat uit een stroom geladen deeltjes die door de zon worden uitgespuwd, vertelt sterrenkundige Lucas Ellerbroek, voorzitter van de Koninklijke Nederlandse Vereniging voor Weer- en Sterrenkunde. "Soms steekt de zonnewind extra op en dat komt doordat de zon een ingewikkeld magnetisch veld heeft. Af en toe herschikt het magnetisch veld zich en komt er in één keer een grote uitbarsting van deeltjes."

Deeltjes die, als ze de onze kant op gaan, ook bij de aarde terechtkomen. "De aarde heeft gelukkig ook een magnetisch veld dat ervoor zorgt dat die deeltjes niet meteen op aarde komen, ze worden naar de noord- en zuidpool geleid." Het is een verschijnsel dat mooie plaatjes oplevert, weet iedereen die wel eens getuige is geweest van het zuider- of noorderlicht.

EPA
Het noorderlicht te zien vanaf een strand in Denemarken
"Het fenomeen blijft op aarde in 99 procent van de gevallen beperkt tot lichtverschijnselen", zegt sterrenkundige Niek de Kort. Alleen in zeldzame gevallen kan het meer gevolgen hebben, vertelt hij. "Elektrische netwerken zijn gevoelige elektromagnetische velden. Zo'n dreun op het magneetveld kan zo sterk zijn dat er verstoringen optreden. Dat kan ook bij satellietverbindingen, maar dan moeten die de volle laag krijgen."

Dat laatste ziet De Kort niet snel gebeuren. "Die netwerken zijn goed beveiligd en gebouwd om ertegen te kunnen. Sowieso zijn die stormen beperkt in duur, meestal is zo'n wolk binnen enkele uren langsgetrokken en herstelt de situatie zich."

De Kort wijst erop dat de meeste satellieten worden beschermd door het magnetische veld van de aarde. Die bevinden zich tot een paar honderd kilometer van de evenaar. "Satellieten in de geostationaire baan, zo'n 36.000 kilometer van de evenaar, kunnen wat meer last hebben van die geladen deeltjes, maar moderne satellieten zijn goed beschermd. En als het al gebeurt, zal de uitval kort zijn. Zie het als een computer die vastloopt: je zet hem uit en aan, en hij doet het weer."

Ook Ellerbroek gaat ervan uit dat de impact zeer beperkt blijft. "Geladen deeltjes verstoren elektronica, maar bij de bouw van apparaten en satellieten wordt daarmee rekening gehouden. Bovendien zit de infrastructuur voor bijvoorbeeld internet veelal op aarde, voor maar een klein deel zijn we afhankelijk van satellieten. Een zonnestorm is niet zo sterk dat apparatuur kapotgaat. Het kan zijn dat we hier en daar pech hebben, maar niet zoals ik her en der lees."

Stroomuitval in verleden
Een beruchte zonnestorm was in 1859, weet Ellerbroek. "Toen schijnen telegraafverbindingen te zijn uitgevallen. Er was destijds niet veel elektriciteit op aarde dus dat viel meteen op."

In Canada viel in 1989 op grote schaal de stroom uit door waarschijnlijk een zonnestorm, weet De Kort nog. "Maar dat was een heel regionaal verschijnsel, op een plek die dicht bij de magnetische pool ligt en met een elektrisch netwerk dat relatief slecht beveiligd was."

De Kort schat de kans op minder dan 1 procent dat er de komende honderd jaar netwerken uitvallen door een zonnestorm. "En dan nog voor korte tijd, denk aan uren of een dag. We weten redelijk hoe het werkt op de zon, dat energie niet oneindig groot kan worden. Dat heeft te maken met het type ster dat de zon is: alles is gematigd."

Alert blijven
Toch moeten instanties, zoals elektriciteitsbedrijven, alert blijven, zegt De Kort. Een mening die gedeeld wordt bij het KNMI, waar het 'ruimteweer' sinds enkele jaren door een speciale afdeling 24/7 in de gaten wordt gehouden. "Mochten er extreem zware zonnestormen komen, dan waarschuwen we op tijd. We staan in verbinding met ministeries, vitale sectoren", zegt Bert van den Oord van het KNMI.

Reden om nu al te waarschuwen, is er niet, zegt Van den Oord. Wat er nu gebeurt, is volgens hem niet heel speciaal. "Maar in Nederland maken we voor alle risico's analyses. Het hoogtepunt van de zonnestorm valt volgend jaar of in 2025, daarna neemt de activiteit weer af. Sinds onze ruimteweerafdeling is opgericht, maken we onze eerste zonnecyclus mee. Hoe de berichten daarover vallen bij het publiek, leren we nu. Er staat al informatie op onze site over ruimteweer, die gaan we maar eens uitbreiden, meer toegankelijk maken."