Zonnevlammen, Zonnestormen en CME #4:

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Long-duration M4.2 solar flare erupts from Region 3575

A long-duration M4.2 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3575 at 03:12 UTC on February 6, 2024. The event started at 02:37 UTC and ended at 03:37.

Type II and IV radio emissions were associated with the event, indicating a strong coronal mass ejection was produced.

Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare), with a peak flux of 470 sfu and lasting 20 minutes, was also associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

The location of this region (near the SW limb) does not favor Earth-directed CMEs.

Solar activity will likely continue at moderate levels with occasional M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts), and a chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3 Strong Radio Blackout) through February 7. Probabilities will decrease somewhat to a chance for M-class flares, and a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare event, on February 8 as AR 3575 exits the southwestern limb.

Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC today, likely due to periphery-like CME and positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences. The total field increased from 6 nT to 11 nT, but the Bz component was mostly northward or near neutral. Solar wind speeds increased from 350 – 400 km/s to ~440 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels today as positive polarity CH HSS and glancing CME effects wane. Primarily quiet conditions are expected on February 7 and 8.

Long-duration M4.2 solar flare erupts from Region 3575

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Two X-class solar flares erupted over the past 9 hours
; the first was X1.8 at 23:07 UTC on February 21 and the second X1.7 at 06:32 UTC on February 22, 2024. Both erupted from Active Region 3590.

There were no apparent coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produced during these events.

The possibility of Earth-directed CMEs will change in the days ahead as AR 3590 moves into a geoeffective position. Additionally, the region has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more major eruptions on the Sun.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over east Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Ocean at the time of the X1.8 flare and over east Africa, parts of the Middle East, India, China, Indonesia, and central and west Australia at the time of the X1.7 flare.

There is only one other active region on the Sun (AR 3586) but it has been stable and inactive for several days.

Additionally, an eruptive filament was observed starting around 15:00 UTC on February 21 in the NW quadrant, and an eruptive prominence at 16:00 UTC on the SE limb.

Material associated with the limb event is not expected to be directed toward Earth, SWPC said at 00:30 UTC today, adding that analysis of the filament eruption will be completed once coronagraph from SOHO imagery becomes available.

Former AR 3575, which has a history of producing X-class flares, is expected to return to the visible disk today, increasing chances for moderate solar activity and M-class flares as it comes into view over the next day or two.

AR 3590 also has the continued potential to produce M- and X-class flares as it rotates toward the center of the disk.

The solar wind environment is expected to be at nominal levels through February 24. During the same period, geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels.