Bulls, Bears & Bucks #10: Consumentenvertrouwen VS laagste in 26 jaar

quote:

Op dinsdag 1 april 2008 17:02 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:
nou, dat is toch maar een 'beetje', want eerder vanochtend nog bijna 1.58

quote:

Op dinsdag 1 april 2008 20:29 schreef henkway het volgende:
kredietcrisis bezworen??
Of gaan we verder omlaag?

quote:

Op dinsdag 1 april 2008 20:47 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

[..]

Kredietcrisis zal nooit bezworen worden, iets is namelijk nooit helemaal goed.

Persoonlijk verwacht ik nog wel een vrij harde correctie op deze stijgingen zoals vandaag. En dan met name op de financials, besides, de beerput hebben we echt nog niet gezien..

quote:

Op dinsdag 1 april 2008 22:34 schreef henkway het volgende:
De nu opgeroepen inflatie zal de schulden in hoog tempo reduceren.
Daarmee de kredietcrisis stoppen en die zal niet weer kunnen terugkomen

quote:

Wat overblijft is de recessie, die zal continueren waarbij de rente laag blijft, maar wie geld gaat uitlenen in zwakke dollars tegen 2% met 10% inflatie, ik weet het ook niet.

quote:

maar de geldpersen zullen wel voluit moeten blijven draaien om dit alles te financieren, waarmee de 2 dollar voor een euro in zicht komt

quote:

Congres roept Bernanke ter verantwoording2 april 2008, 12:00 uur | FD.nl
Ben Bernanke moet woensdag en donderdag verantwoording afleggen tegenover twee commissies van het Amerikaanse Congres over een financiering die de voorzitter van de Fed verstrekte aan de noodlijdende zakenbank Bear Stearns.


Door een speciale financiering te verlenen aan Bear Stearns van $ 29 mrd voor diens 'minder liquide activa' ging Bernanke voorbij aan de traditie van het stelsel van Amerikaanse Centrale Banken. Het Amerikaanse congres wil nu weten waar de Fed-preses de lijn trekt.

JP Morgan neemt Bear Stearns over van 17 maart 2008
Fed redt grote bank in VS van ondergang van 15 maart 2008

Volgens BNR-redacteur Rene de Monchy was de nood bij Bear Stearns bijzonder hoog. Bekijk de video

Het is voor het eerst dat Bernanke afrijst naar Capitol Hill sinds de noodmaatregel die de Federal Reserve op 16 maart trof om het dreigende faillissement van Bear Stearns af te wenden.

Rechtmatigheid subsidies

Wetgevers prijzen de maatregelen die de Fed en het Ministerie van Financiën hebben getroffen om de ondergang van de financiële markten in de VS te verkomen. Tegelijkertijd zetten zij echter vraagtekens bij de rechtmatigheid om subsidies te verlenen aan ondernemingen die willens en weten risico’s opzoeken, terwijl honderdduizenden Amerikanen noodgedwongen hun huizen moeten verkopen omdat zij in financiële gebreke blijven.
Bush prijst handelswijze Federal Reserve van 17 maart 2008
'Bush en Bernanke leggen basis voor nieuwe zeepbellen' van 6 februari 2008
Oeso steunt rentestappen Fed van 1 februari 2008

‘Wanneer de Fed bereid is om de handelswijze bij Bear Stearns te herhalen, geeft de centrale bank een zeer gevaarlijk signaal’, aldus Senator Charles Grassley van Iowa in gesprek met Bloomberg Television

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 12:58 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

[..]

Nou nou het congres dat zich er ook mee gaat bemoeien.

Wat een spelfout trouwens dat had ik nooit van het FD verwacht (afrijst)

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 12:58 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

[..]

Nou nou het congres dat zich er ook mee gaat bemoeien.

Wat een spelfout trouwens dat had ik nooit van het FD verwacht (afrijst)

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 14:16 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
ADP: BANENGROEI VS MAART +8.000; CONSENSUS -45.000

quote:

America No. 1?

America by the numbers

by Michael Ventura

02/03/05 "ICH" - - No concept lies more firmly embedded in our national character than the notion that the USA is "No. 1," "the greatest." Our broadcast media are, in essence, continuous advertisements for the brand name "America Is No. 1." Any office seeker saying otherwise would be committing political suicide. In fact, anyone saying otherwise will be labeled "un-American." We're an "empire," ain't we? Sure we are. An empire without a manufacturing base. An empire that must borrow $2 billion a day from its competitors in order to function. Yet the delusion is ineradicable. We're No. 1. Well...this is the country you really live in:

The United States is 49th in the world in literacy (The New York Times, Dec. 12, 2004).

• The United States ranked 28th out of 40 countries in mathematical literacy (NYT, Dec. 12, 2004).

• One-third of our science teachers and one-half of our math teachers did not major in those subjects. (Quoted on The West Wing, but you can trust it – their researchers are legendary.)

• Twenty percent of Americans think the sun orbits the Earth. Seventeen percent believe the Earth revolves around the sun once a day (The Week, Jan. 7, 2005).

• "The International Adult Literacy Survey ... found that Americans with less than nine years of education 'score worse than virtually all of the other countries'" (Jeremy Rifkin's superbly documented book The European Dream
: How Europe's Vision of the Future Is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream, p.78).

• Our workers are so ignorant, and lack so many basic skills, that American businesses spend $30 billion a year on remedial training (NYT, Dec. 12, 2004). No wonder they relocate elsewhere!

• "The European Union leads the U.S. in ... the number of science and engineering graduates; public research and development (R&D) expenditures; and new capital raised" (The European Dream, p.70).

• "Europe surpassed the United States in the mid-1990s as the largest producer of scientific literature" (The European Dream, p.70).

• Nevertheless, Congress cut funds to the National Science Foundation. The agency will issue 1,000 fewer research grants this year (NYT, Dec. 21, 2004).

• Foreign applications to U.S. grad schools declined 28% last year. Foreign student enrollment on all levels fell for the first time in three decades, but increased greatly in Europe and China. Last year Chinese grad-school graduates in the U.S. dropped 56%, Indians 51%, South Koreans 28% (NYT, Dec. 21, 2004). We're not the place to be anymore.

• The World Health Organization "ranked the countries of the world in terms of overall health performance, and the U.S. [was] ... 37th." In the fairness of health care, we're 54th. "The irony is that the United States spends more per capita for health care than any other nation in the world" (The European Dream, pp.79-80). Pay more, get lots, lots less.

• "The U.S. and South Africa are the only two developed countries in the world that do not provide health care for all their citizens" (The European Dream, p.80). Excuse me, but since when is South Africa a "developed" country? Anyway, that's the company we're keeping.

• Lack of health insurance coverage causes 18,000 unnecessary American deaths a year. (That's six times the number of people killed on 9/11.) (NYT, Jan. 12, 2005.)

• "U.S. childhood poverty now ranks 22nd, or second to last, among the developed nations. Only Mexico scores lower" (The European Dream, p.81). Been to Mexico lately? Does it look "developed" to you? Yet it's the only "developed" country to score lower in childhood poverty.

• Twelve million American families – more than 10% of all U.S. households – "continue to struggle, and not always successfully, to feed themselves." Families that "had members who actually went hungry at some point last year" numbered 3.9 million (NYT, Nov. 22, 2004).

• The United States is 41st in the world in infant mortality. Cuba scores higher (NYT, Jan. 12, 2005).

• Women are 70% more likely to die in childbirth in America than in Europe (NYT, Jan. 12, 2005).

• The leading cause of death of pregnant women in this country is murder (CNN, Dec. 14, 2004).

• "Of the 20 most developed countries in the world, the U.S. was dead last in the growth rate of total compensation to its work-force in the 1980s. ... In the 1990s, the U.S. average compensation growth rate grew only slightly, at an annual rate of about 0.1%" (The European Dream, p.39). Yet Americans work longer hours per year than any other industrialized country, and get less vacation time.

• "Sixty-one of the 140 biggest companies on the Global Fortune 500 rankings are European, while only 50 are U.S. companies" (The European Dream, p.66). "In a recent survey of the world's 50 best companies, conducted by Global Finance, all but one was European" (The European Dream, p.69).

• "Fourteen of the 20 largest commercial banks in the world today are European. ... In the chemical industry, the European company BASF is the world's leader, and three of the top six players are European. In engineering and construction, three of the top five companies are European. ... The two others are Japanese. Not a single American engineering and construction company is included among the world's top nine competitors. In food and consumer products, Nestlé and Unilever, two European giants, rank first and second, respectively, in the world. In the food and drugstore retail trade, two European companies ... are first and second, and European companies make up five of the top 10. Only four U.S. companies are on the list" (The European Dream, p.68).

• The United States has lost 1.3 million jobs to China in the last decade (CNN, Jan. 12, 2005).

• U.S. employers eliminated 1 million jobs in 2004 (The Week, Jan. 14, 2005).

• Three million six hundred thousand Americans ran out of unemployment insurance last year; 1.8 million – one in five – unemployed workers are jobless for more than six months (NYT, Jan. 9, 2005).

• Japan, China, Taiwan, and South Korea hold 40% of our government debt. (That's why we talk nice to them.) "By helping keep mortgage rates from rising, China has come to play an enormous and little-noticed role in sustaining the American housing boom" (NYT, Dec. 4, 2004). Read that twice. We owe our housing boom to China, because they want us to keep buying all that stuff they manufacture.

• Sometime in the next 10 years Brazil will probably pass the U.S. as the world's largest agricultural producer. Brazil is now the world's largest exporter of chickens, orange juice, sugar, coffee, and tobacco. Last year, Brazil passed the U.S. as the world's largest beef producer. (Hear that, you poor deluded cowboys?) As a result, while we bear record trade deficits, Brazil boasts a $30 billion trade surplus (NYT, Dec. 12, 2004).

• As of last June, the U.S. imported more food than it exported (NYT, Dec. 12, 2004).

• Bush: 62,027,582 votes. Kerry: 59,026,003 votes. Number of eligible voters who didn't show up: 79,279,000 (NYT, Dec. 26, 2004). That's more than a third. Way more. If more than a third of Iraqis don't show for their election, no country in the world will think that election legitimate.

• One-third of all U.S. children are born out of wedlock. One-half of all U.S. children will live in a one-parent house (CNN, Dec. 10, 2004).

• "Americans are now spending more money on gambling than on movies, videos, DVDs, music, and books combined" (The European Dream, p.28).

• "Nearly one out of four Americans [believe] that using violence to get what they want is acceptable" (The European Dream, p.32).

• Forty-three percent of Americans think torture is sometimes justified, according to a PEW Poll (Associated Press, Aug. 19, 2004).

• "Nearly 900,000 children were abused or neglected in 2002, the last year for which such data are available" (USA Today, Dec. 21, 2004).

• "The International Association of Chiefs of Police said that cuts by the [Bush] administration in federal aid to local police agencies have left the nation more vulnerable than ever" (USA Today, Nov. 17, 2004).

No. 1? In most important categories we're not even in the Top 10 anymore. Not even close.
The USA is "No. 1" in nothing but weaponry, consumer spending, debt, and delusion.

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 14:16 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
ADP: BANENGROEI VS MAART +8.000; CONSENSUS -45.000

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 200815:25 schreef freud het volgende:
Mooi stukje, en ik denk niet dat het beter geworden is de afgelopen 4 jaar...

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 15:38 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

[..]

en de komende vier jaar zie ik het ook niet beter worden

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 14:49 schreef digitaLL het volgende:

[..]

Bron

quote:

No. 1? In most important categories we're not even in the Top 10 anymore. Not even close.
The USA is "No. 1" in nothing but weaponry, consumer spending, debt, and delusion.

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 200816:03 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
Ha! Gelukkig, ik was al bang dat er weer een vijfjarige periode van rustige stabiele economische groei aan zat te komen, dan konden we dit topic wel opdoeken.

VS FABRIEKSORDERS FEBRUARI -1,3%; CONSENSUS -0,8%

Maar goed het is wel een FEB cijfer, geen MRT.

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 16:24 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

[..]

Als het aan de Amerikanen ligt wel ja..

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 21:18 schreef gronk het volgende:
CNN: Europese huizenbubbels staan op breken.

quote:

Op donderdag 3 april 2008 00:22 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:
Ik vraag me dan af he, door berichten zoals deze.. bernanke ziet een mogelijke recessie. En het zou mij niks verbazen dat morgen ochtend het dan op tv komt, journaals, en alle huisvadertjes in paniek raken en alles op sell flikkeren.. maja, tis maar een vliegende gedachte hoor?

Paniek qua beurzen op tv betekent namelijk in 9 van de 10 gevallen nog harder naar beneden..

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 200816:33 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

[..]

De Amerikanen geven toch aan dat er problemen zijn .. ? Ik zie het ' [afbeelding] ' er niet in.
Besides, het stukje wat hierboven staat met al die 'amerika is niet nummer 1' nogal gekleurd.
Beetje jammer dat het stukje niet in perspectief is geschreven. Amerika is voor mij persoonlijk nog steeds nr.1 om makkelijk geld te verdienen.

quote:

Op donderdag 3 april 2008 00:22 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:
Ik vraag me dan af he, door berichten zoals deze.. bernanke ziet een mogelijke recessie. En het zou mij niks verbazen dat morgen ochtend het dan op tv komt, journaals, en alle huisvadertjes in paniek raken en alles op sell flikkeren.. maja, tis maar een vliegende gedachte hoor?

Paniek qua beurzen op tv betekent namelijk in 9 van de 10 gevallen nog harder naar beneden..

quote:

Builders Get Breaks From Congress

Thursday April 3, 2:13 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer

Builders, Mortgage Companies Get Additions, Subtractions They Asked for in Senate Housing Deal

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Homebuilders and the mortgage industry are emerging as big victors in a bipartisan agreement reached by Senate leaders on legislation designed to limit the housing crisis.
The $15 billion measure, announced Wednesday by Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and GOP leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, contains a $6 billion emergency tax break that would let companies use losses from 2008 and 2009 to offset profits earned over the previous four years, instead of the usual two-year timeframe.

That's good news for big homebuilders such as KB Home and Pulte Homes Inc., which have been saddled with massive losses over the past year.

Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders, said in an interview that the tax break is "very important to the building community." It will keep many small homebuilders out of bankruptcy, he said, and will prevent large builders from having to liquidate assets.

Homeowners facing bankruptcy, however, won't find relief in the proposal.

The mortgage industry fought fiercely to spike a provision to let bankruptcy judges rewrite the terms of distressed mortgages. It won that battle; the provision was left out.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said it would have hurt more borrowers in the long run by requiring higher interest rates and larger down payments to offset the risk of bankruptcy court intervention.

Steve O'Connor, senior vice president of government affairs at the trade group, praised the deal. "If bankruptcy reform were included, it would destroy the nature of the compromise," O'Connor said.

The absence of bankruptcy intervention was criticized by 15 civil rights, labor and consumer groups -- including the Center for Responsible Lending and the Consumer Federation of America. In a joint statement, they called lawmakers' actions "a win for the financial services industry that brought us this mess."

The tax carryback also drew the ire of critics, who immediately labeled it a giveaway to big business.

"Why does nearly half of the money in a bill supposedly intended to help struggling homeowners go to a multibillion dollar tax break for corporate homebuilders who helped cause this mess?" Jacob Hay, spokesman for the Laborers' International Union of North America, which represents construction workers, said in an e-mail.

It would be the second time in recent history that the government has amended this accounting tool, known as a "tax loss carryback," to stimulate the economy in the face of a recession.

The plan also contains $4 billion in grants to local governments to buy and refurbish foreclosed homes, new authority for states to issue bonds to be used to refinance subprime mortgages -- those made to borrowers with poor credit -- and a $7,000 tax credit for people buying properties in foreclosure.

The bill includes an additional $100 million -- half of what Democrats proposed -- for credit counseling to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. And the agreement permanently raises the limit for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration to $550,000. That amount had been temporarily raised to nearly $730,000 as part of the economic stimulus bill signed by President Bush in February.

Earlier this year, the builders' trade group was so dissatisfied by lawmakers' actions -- notably not including the tax provision in the economic stimulus bill-- that it snapped shut its political purse. NAHB said it would stop making contributions to congressional candidates "until further notice."

Since 1990, the trade group has given nearly $20 million to federal candidates, with 35 percent going to Democrats and 65 percent to Republicans, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

It's not clear if the new plan will kick back open the coffers.

Other big beneficiaries would be Wall Street banks such as Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Morgan Stanley. In fact, any company now struggling after years of healthy profits that pumped up their tax bills could benefit.

quote:

Op donderdag 3 april 2008 07:48 schreef freud het volgende:

Maar goed, om die impressie weg te geven, is meer nodig dan een open kattenluik in te trappen.

quote:

Op donderdag 3 april 2008 09:35 schreef gronk het volgende:

[..]

FED-bashing heb ik altijd goedkoop gevonden. Bovendien kun je zoiets beter overlaten aan mensen die daar echt verstand van hebben (het bashen dan). Zeg, iemand als Jim Cramer.

quote:

Op donderdag 3 april 2008 18:14 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
Yep. De consensus onder analisten over de verwachte uitkomst... ... is dan in dit geval dus de verwachting

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 23:14 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
http://beta.frontpage.fok.nl/nieuws/90103/

Zo, poe, dat is nog best wel wat werk. Maar goed ik probeer één keer in de week zo een berichtje te doen wat uit dit topic kan komen

quote:

Op woensdag 2 april 2008 @ 22:55 schreef Longmen het volgende:
Maak er een film over: Fedna

quote:

Op vrijdag 4 april 2008 11:11 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

[..]

Toch gek dat ze er dan zo vaak totaal naastzitten.

quote:

Op vrijdag 4 april 2008 14:39 schreef tony_clifton- het volgende:
Nog altijd een stevige plusdag tot nog toe... Financials doen het goed...

edit; oké, het banenrapport staat duidelijk op de intradaycharts

quote:

In de Verenigde Staten is het aantal banen in maart het sterkst gedaald sinds vijf jaar. Het aantal banen nam af met 80.000, waar economen waren uitgegaan van een daling met 50.000 banen. Dit heeft Amerikaanse Bureau of Labor Statistics vrijdag bekendgemaakt.

In februari daalde het aantal banen nog met 76.000, neerwaarts herzien van een eerder gemelde afname van 63.000. De werkloosheid kwam in maart met 5,1 procent hoger uit dan de verwachte 5,0 procent. Een maand eerder bedroeg de werkloosheid nog 4,8 procent.