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Ukraine peace talks fizzle out as Trump’s focus shifts to Iran
US president no longer focused on pressuring Vladimir Putin, European officials say
The US-led peace process in Ukraine is fizzling out because Donald Trump is losing interest in the talks and his war against Iran is easing pressure on Russia, officials say.
The conflict in the Middle East has diverted Washington’s attention from a peace deal, according to four EU diplomats involved in talks with Ukraine. At the same time, the diplomats said, it was benefiting Russia through higher oil prices, a suspension of US sanctions and the rapid depletion of American munitions Kyiv needed.
The negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian officials, mediated by the US, were “really in the danger zone”, said a senior European official.
“A pause has indeed appeared in the talks. The Americans have other priorities, and that’s understandable,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
The last three-way peace talks took place in Geneva on February 17-18. Another round due to take place on March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed because of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and a new date and venue have yet to be announced.
“The Middle East has severely reoriented political attention” away from Ukraine, one of the EU diplomats said. “For us, and for Ukraine, it’s a disaster.”
EU countries had been told that US arms shipments, particularly air defence, would be delayed as Washington prioritised Middle Eastern customers, the diplomats said, with major ramifications for Kyiv.
“It is definitely a problem because you have a competition for the same assets really, in the Middle East as well as in Ukraine,” Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, told the FT. “Clearly America’s attention right now is on the Middle East.”
Trump’s war with Iran has given Russia an unexpected lifeline by driving up global energy prices, helping the Kremlin recoup additional revenue of up to $150mn a day. The US relaxed sanctions on Thursday and its pressure on India not to buy Russian oil, prompting a significant number of tankers to head to the Indian Ocean.
Washington’s move “certainly does not help peace”, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had so far largely refrained from criticising Trump over the war, likely in an effort to stop the US from swinging more firmly behind Ukraine, the people involved in back-channel talks said. The two presidents spoke on Monday, when Putin suggested ways Russia could mediate an end to the conflict in the Middle East.
But in the negotiations with Ukraine, the Kremlin has shown no willingness to compromise and has itself become frustrated with the process. “The talks are running out of steam. They need to breathe some new life into this format,” said one of the people involved in back-channel efforts to end the war.
EU leaders are sceptical that peace talks will succeed without further pressure on Moscow. But they see the process as a way of maintaining US engagement in Ukraine.
EU leaders have tried to keep Ukraine in the spotlight since the US-Israeli attack on Iran began two weeks ago. France’s Emmanuel Macron hosted Zelenskyy in Paris on Friday to counter what an Élysée official described as the “eclipse effect” of the Iran war.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the White House three days after the US and Israel began their attack on Iran. Merz came with maps and charts to make the case for increased pressure on Moscow.
But Trump was disinclined to discuss in detail and remains convinced that Russia is strong and Ukraine is weak, say people familiar with the discussion. There was also no sign of US willingness to dial up pressure on Putin.
Over the past week, US officials told European counterparts that there would be no further sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, two of the EU diplomats said.
“The administration has consistently avoided putting pressure on Moscow and has focused instead on offering incentives to the Kremlin,” said Andrew Weiss, vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Trump and his team have relied heavily on improvisation in their negotiations with the Kremlin.”
Under Trump, the US has sought to serve as a neutral interlocutor in the talks. US officials were eager to broker an end to the conflict but were largely indifferent as to the terms under which the war was brought to an end, people familiar with the talks said.
A White House official said that Trump remained “hopeful” that the talks would lead to an end of the war, and that US negotiators had made “tremendous progress” in recent months.
“I don’t think the Russians want to have talks anytime soon again,” said one of the people involved in back-channel talks. “Because there’s nothing to talk about.”
Russia has so far resisted entreaties from European countries to carve out a greater role in the talks — most recently last month when French national security adviser Emmanuel Bonne and adviser Bertrand Buchwalter visited Moscow for talks with Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy official.
The French officials made the case for Moscow to accept that Kyiv’s European allies should have a seat at the table, according to people familiar with the matter. “The Russian response from Ushakov was basically, ‘Sorry, actually, no we don’t, fuck you’,” a senior European diplomat said.
Peskov told the FT: “The Europeans don’t want to help the peace process. When the representative of France came, he didn’t bring any positive signals. And so there was indeed nothing positive for him to hear.”
“Unfortunately, the Europeans are spending all their efforts on convincing the Ukrainians to continue the war,” he said. “We are convinced the Europeans are making a mistake from the perspective of their own future.”
Russia was confident it was winning the war, Peskov said. “The dynamic on the front is positive for us. We are advancing and getting closer to achieving our goals, but as President Putin said, we are open to a diplomatic settlement.”
From Ukraine’s perspective, Russia was “not serious” about ending the war given its insistence on demands Kyiv could not accept, said a senior Ukrainian official. The official downplayed concerns that Washington’s focus on Iran would derail the talks with Russia, saying Kyiv would “wait and see” how the situation develops.
“Nothing has changed” in the talks with Russia, said Oleksandr Merezhko, an MP in Zelenskyy’s party. “The obstacles are still the same, Putin has no interest in achieving a result, he’s only interested in negotiations because it allows him to avoid sanctions from Trump.”