[Britse politiek] #134: Brain drain looming

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Op zondag 14 mei 2023 16:21 schreef Jan_Onderwater het volgende:

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NL ook btw

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Op zondag 14 mei 2023 17:54 schreef Tijger_m het volgende:

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Alleen tot op zekere hoogte, wij hebben geen Tory partij met een absolute meerderheid aan de macht.

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Op zondag 14 mei 2023 13:46 schreef Tijger_m het volgende:

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De (financieele) diensten sector is nu eenmaal geen fraaie, het VK wordt nogal geregeld beschouwd als een land waar je geld verdient met malafide praktijken prima kan onderbrengen.
Teveel toezicht en regulering op deze sectoren werd afschrikkend op dergelijke...eh..."investeerders" dus vandaar deze koers.

Voeg daarbij dat veel geld ook veel invloed koopt (zie de nauwe banden tussen Russische & Arabische oligarchen en de Conservatieven) en het plaatje is rond.
De ironie van dat plaatje is dat er maar een manier is om een dergelijke economie toch van producten en arbeidskrachten te voorzien en dat is import...en laat de EU daar nu een perfect vehikel voor geweest zijn. Maar dat is niet meer dus nu importeert men mensen van veel verder weg.

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For many, the situation is reminiscent of the 1970s, when high debt, punishing inflation and widespread protests brought the country to its knees – leading Henry Kissinger, who was U.S. secretary of state at the time, to grumble from across the Atlantic: "Britain is a tragedy, reduced to begging, borrowing and stealing."

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Op zondag 14 mei 2023 13:46 schreef Tijger_m het volgende:

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De (financieele) diensten sector is nu eenmaal geen fraaie, het VK wordt nogal geregeld beschouwd als een land waar je geld verdient met malafide praktijken prima kan onderbrengen.
Teveel toezicht en regulering op deze sectoren werd afschrikkend op dergelijke...eh..."investeerders" dus vandaar deze koers.

Voeg daarbij dat veel geld ook veel invloed koopt (zie de nauwe banden tussen Russische & Arabische oligarchen en de Conservatieven) en het plaatje is rond.
De ironie van dat plaatje is dat er maar een manier is om een dergelijke economie toch van producten en arbeidskrachten te voorzien en dat is import...en laat de EU daar nu een perfect vehikel voor geweest zijn. Maar dat is niet meer dus nu importeert men mensen van veel verder weg.

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Grote financiële sector in Nederland schaadt economie
De Nederlandse financiële sector is zo groot dat het de economie schaadt. Als financiële sectoren boven een bepaalde grens zijn gegroeid, slaat hun positieve invloed op de economische groei om in een negatieve, blijkt uit onderzoek van econoom Dirk Bezemer van de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen. Eerdere studies van onder meer het IMF en de Bank voor Internationale Betalingen (BIS) komen tot gelijksoortige conclusies.

Jonathan Witteman 10 juni 2015, 02:00

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Geld als water
Dirk Bezemer

15 april 2015

ABN Amro-bestuursleden, met een vast salaris van 608.000 euro per jaar, hadden zichzelf vorige maand een ton opslag toebedacht.

Ze slikten die zeventien procent salarisverhoging pas in na protesten van de samenleving, politiek en eigen medewerkers. De bestuurders steken nog zuinig af bij de topmannen van ING en Nationale Nederlanden, die 28 en 39 procent opslag ontvingen.

Waarom verdienen bankiers zoveel meer dan andere mensen? Zelf wijzen ze er graag op dat zonder krediet de economie op z’n gat ligt – iets wat we de afgelopen jaren aan den lijve hebben ondervonden. Klopt dus. Welnu, vervolgt de bankier, de maatschappij heeft zo ongelooflijk veel baat bij goed draaiende banken, dat ze er dus ook een forse vergoeding voor over heeft.

Hier zit de denkfout. Omdat haperende banken zoveel schade aanrichten, moeten goed draaiende banken dus wel bijzonder waardevol zijn voor de economie. Dat lijkt logisch, maar is het niet. Ter vergelijking: omdat droogte zo schadelijk is, moet een overstroming wel bijzonder heilzaam zijn. Geld als water? Inderdaad, je kunt er ook te veel van hebben.

Dat is precies wat de wetenschap de laatste jaren vindt. Stel je een grafiek voor met economische groei op de verticale as en de omvang van de financiële sector, gemeten door de hoeveelheid uitstaande leningen, op de horizontale. Het lijntje geeft aan of een grotere financiële sector goed is voor economische groei (stijgende lijn) of slecht (dalend). Economen hebben de data van tientallen economieën over de laatste halve eeuw erbij gezocht en de stipjes verbonden. Wat blijkt? De curve heeft de vorm van een hobbel (download Too Much Finance ‘pdf’ van het IMF). Links, op het opgaande stuk, zitten landen met weinig bank. Zij hebben baat bij meer bank: hun economie gaat er harder van groeien. Rechts, voorbij de top, liggen landen die langzamer gaan groeien naarmate ze een grotere financiële sector hebben. De top zelf ligt ongeveer op de plek waar de totale hoeveelheid uitstaand krediet (van banken en andere financiële instellingen) even groot is als het bruto binnenlands product (bbp).

Schrik niet: dat punt passeerde Nederland in 1978. De financiële sector is hier al een kwart eeuw groter dan gemiddeld gesproken gezond is. De hoeveelheid uitstaande leningen is nu bijna [tweeënhalf keer zo groot](1. http://www.bis.org/statistics/credtopriv.htm )als onze economie. De helft daarvan is bankkrediet. Om even bij de metafoor te blijven: de bankier die ons toeroept dat we zonder hem financieel uitdrogen, heeft niet door dat het water ons tot de lippen staat.

De vraag is niet hoeveel meer groei onze economie behaalt met behulp van banken. Groei van de financiële sector kostte ons economische groei (1). Op ons stukje van de curve geldt: meer bankleningen betekent minder groei van lonen, banen, investeringen – kortom alles wat we met economische groei meten.

De cijfers zijn van de gezaghebbende Bank for International Settlements, en onomstreden. Toch krijg ik in beleidsdiscussies regelmatig straf tegengas van bankiers. Ze willen er niet aan dat onze financiële sector ongezond groot is. De rotsvaste overtuiging dat florerende banken goed voor ons zijn, zit ook in de haarvaten van de politiek. In de wetenschap is het een gepasseerd station. Den Haag, het is tijd om wakker te worden.

Hoe werkt dat dan, meer bankkrediet dus minder groei? Het antwoord is niet ingewikkeld: krediet is ook schuld. De vraag is of krediet zó wordt gebruikt dat er inkomen gegenereerd wordt. Daaruit kan de schuld dan worden afbetaald. Bij leningen aan bedrijven is dit vaak het geval; bij hypotheken aan huishoudens niet. De schuld groeit er wel van, maar het toekomstig inkomen niet. In mijn onderzoek vind ik dat in de meeste westerse economieën de kredietverlening sterk verschoven is richting huishoudens.

Nederland loopt daarin voorop. Meer dan de helft van alle uitstaande leningen bestaat hier uit hypotheken aan huishoudens. Er is dus een duidelijke reden om je zorgen te maken over de rol van banken in Nederland. In één woord: schuld. En dan heb ik het niet over de overheidsschuld, waar ons kabinet zo druk mee is. Die is slechts zeventig procent van het bbp. Ik heb het over de schuld van de private sector, die 240 procent bedraagt. We staan daarin op eenzame hoogte (2) Maar hoe vaak hoort u Rutte of Dijsselbloem hierover?

Internationaal onderzoek laat verder zien dat economieën met veel private schuld langere recessies kennen, en lagere groei (3). We hebben sinds 2008 in reële termen procentueel meer bbp verloren dan de eurozone als geheel. Meer dan België of Frankrijk, zelfs meer dan IJsland of Ierland. Hoog tijd om nog eens goed na te denken over de zegeningen van een grote financiële sector – en van dikbetaalde bankbestuurders.

https://www.groene.nl/artikel/geld-als-water

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Tory MPs accuse Suella Braverman of making bid for party leadership

Party colleagues condemn home secretary’s ‘outrageous’ National Conservatism conference speech, and say it undermined Sunak

Despairing Conservative MPs have accused Suella Braverman of undermining Rishi Sunak’s authority and making a bid for the future leadership of the party with a partisan speech railing against experts and elites.

The home secretary delivered a highly personal blueprint for a political philosophy to take on the “radical left” in what was interpreted as a pitch to be the right’s next candidate, at a National Conservatism conference in London.

Senior Tory MPs privately condemned her making an overture to become the party’s leader should the Conservatives lose the next election. One said: “Rishi needs to make it clear to her that she is either a team player or a backbencher.”

In an attempt to reclaim the right wing of his party, Sunak will on Tuesday urge European leaders to crack down on immigration through tighter policing of its borders, after his surprise meeting with Ukraine’s president was overshadowed by Braverman’s rhetoric.

Tory MPs have grown increasingly uneasy after a damning set of local election results and with ministers braced for a record increase in immigration figures next week, which threatens to undermine their pledge to cut arrivals.

Sunak has also faced criticism from the pro-Brexit right of his party since it was announced that just 600 of the 4,000 EU laws he pledged to revoke by the end of the year would be scrapped.

Conservative MPs were invited for drinks with the prime minister to mark the coronation in the Downing Street garden on Monday night. Sunak was expected to try to calm nerves there and draw a line under any potential mutiny.

However, MPs suggested Sunak should warn Braverman to stick to her role as home secretary and get to grips with problems in the immigration system, rather than giving her permission to undermine his leadership.

One minister said: “She’s not waiting for the election, but is pitching for prime minister now. And she’s not the only one. Being in the cabinet is no longer a collective endeavour but a position to pitch for the next job. It would be better if she and others focused on the jobs they actually had. You would think being home secretary was some side hustle.”

Another MP described her speech as “outrageous”, saying: “It was rather rich that she was highlighting the problems with our immigration system when she’s been in charge of it for the past nine months. It was all about her ambitions, not about improving things.”

A third MP said the majority of Tory colleagues were “rolling their eyes” at Braverman’s “unhelpful” appearance at the conference when she should be concentrating on tackling migration.

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Op zaterdag 20 mei 2023 11:49 schreef Toby56 het volgende:
Nigel Farage geeft toe: Brexit has failed, maar het ligt/lag niet aan hem. Het zijn de anderen. Alle anderen eigenlijk.

James O'Brien op LBC:

"I have said from the start: contempt for the conmen. And there was no bigger conman than Nigel Farage. Compassion for the conned."

"Brexit has failed": James O'Brien reacts to Nigel Farage admission | LBC

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Op zaterdag 20 mei 2023 14:51 schreef Tijger_m het volgende:

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Dat was al meteen duidelijk toen niemand van de aanvoerders van Brexit het aandurfde om duidelijk te maken wat Brexit nu eigenlijk inhield behalve de meest vage termen en slogans. Er werd door critici vanaf het begin al opgemerkt dat Brexit dusdanig ongrijpbaar was dat het nooit kon slagen of kon falen als idee, het kon alleen maar gefaald worden.

Deze zelfde aanvoerders is nooit gevraagd om rekenschap af te leggen over beloftes als dat het VK in de EU markt zou blijven of beloftes als dat het VK eenzelfde positie als Noorwegen zou kunnen innemen (Farage claimde dat, luttlele maanden na het referendum was een poging om in de EFTA te komen als landverraad bestempelt).
Het mag ook opgemerkt worden dat de media in het VK hier een rol in speelden en bepaald geen positieve.

Daarmee werd bedoeld dat indien de gouden bergen die beloofd werden niet gerealiseerd werden het aan de uitvoering maar nooit aan het idee Brexit zou liggen. En zo geschiedde het.

Men zal het moeten redden met wat ze hebben (en importeren) nu, de weg terug naar de EU is lang en moeilijk en het wordt wel hoog tijd dat het besef in het VK moet indalen dat die weg lang en moeilijk is, ik hoor nog veel te veel mensen roepen dat de EU ze wel even meteen weer in de armen gaat sluiten. Dat betwijfel ik ten zeerste.

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Nadine Dorries stands down as MP with immediate effect

Nadine Dorries, the Conservative former culture secretary, has announced she is standing down as an MP with immediate effect.

She made the announcement in a tweet after having reportedly been dropped from Boris Johnson’s resignation honours. The move means there will be a byelection in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency where, in 2019, the Conservatives won a 24,000 majority.

It will be the first byelection where the Tories will seek to retain a seat since Rishi Sunak became prime minister in October 2022.

Dorries tweeted: “I have today informed the chief whip that I am standing down as the MP for Mid Bedfordshire with immediate effect. It has been an honour to serve as the MP for such a wonderful constituency but it is now time for someone younger to take the reins.”

Dorries, a staunch Johnson loyalist, had previously detailed her plan to quit as an MP at the next election. Hours before her dramatic announcement, Dorries told TalkTV that “the last thing I would want to do would be to cause a byelection” in her seat.

Speaking to the broadcaster, where she hosts a chatshow, on Friday morning, Dorries said she had not heard anything but did not expect to be entering the Lords “any time soon”.

“I know nothing,” she said. “There is a process and the last thing I would want to do would be to cause a byelection in my constituency. I don’t believe I will be going into the House of Lords any time soon.”

Her next TalkTV show is due to air on Friday.

The Times earlier reported Dorries, as well as Sir Alok Sharma, the president of the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, were struck from Johnson’s trimmed-down honours list to avoid damaging byelections as they would have stood down to take the peerages.

The prospects of such an electoral test would be more challenging for the prime minister in Sharma’s marginal Reading West constituency, where he has a 4,000-vote majority over Labour.

Dorries, who has been an MP since 2005, has been a vocal critic of Sunak’s government since he entered No 10 and is to release a book on the downfall of Johnson.

After her promotion to culture secretary under Johnson’s leadership, Dorries led the now-ditched plan to privatise Channel 4.

She was no stranger to controversy during her time in parliament, losing the Conservative whip in 2013 as a result of her appearance on ITV’s I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!

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Op vrijdag 9 juni 2023 21:12 schreef trein2000 het volgende:
[ twitter ]
T was ook z’n laatste kunstje

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Boris Johnson stepping down as an MP with immediate effect and says he is 'bewildered and appalled' at being 'forced out'

Boris Johnson is standing down as the Conservative MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, it has been reported.

The move by the former prime minister will trigger an immediate by-election.

He took the move after the Privileges Committee of the House of Commons reportedly found he misled Parliament & recommended sanction of more than 10 days.

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Boris Johnson said he had received a letter from the committee which is investigating whether he lied to MPs over Partygate “making it clear, much to my amazement, that they are determined to use the proceedings against me to drive me out of Parliament”.

He said: “I have today written to my association in Uxbridge and South Ruislip to say that I am stepping down forthwith and triggering an immediate by-election.

“I am very sorry to leave my wonderful constituency. It has been a huge honour to serve them, both as mayor and MP.”

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Boris Johnson says Tories must 'recapture momentum' in stinging resignation rebuke to Sunak government

In a rallying call to his followers, Boris Johnson used his resignation statement to deliver a stinging attack on Rishi Sunak’s government.

“When I left office last year the government was only a handful of points behind in the polls. That gap has now massively widened,” he said.

“Just a few years after winning the biggest majority in almost half a century, that majority is now clearly at risk. Our party needs urgently to recapture its sense of momentum and its belief in what this country can do.

“We need to show how we are making the most of Brexit and we need in the next months to be setting out a pro-growth and pro-investment agenda. We need to cut business and personal taxes - and not just as pre-election gimmicks - rather than endlessly putting them up. We must not be afraid to be a properly Conservative government.

“Why have we so passively abandoned the prospect of a Free Trade Deal with the US? Why have we junked measures to help people into housing or to scrap EU directives or to promote animal welfare?

“We need to deliver on the 2019 manifesto, which was endorsed by 14 million people. We should remember that more than 17 million voted for Brexit. “

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Johnson says 'not a shred of evidence' he misled Commons as he steps down

Boris Johnson accused the Standards Committee, led by Labour’s Harriet Harman but including Tory MPs, of having “still not produced a shred of evidence that I knowingly or recklessly misled the Commons”.

“Their purpose from the beginning has been to find me guilty, regardless of the facts. This is the very definition of a kangaroo court,” he wrote.

“Most members of the Committee - especially the chair - had already expressed deeply prejudicial remarks about my guilt before they had even seen the evidence. They should have recused themselves.

“In retrospect it was naïve and trusting of me to think that these proceedings could be remotely useful or fair. But I was determined to believe in the system, and in justice, and to vindicate what I knew to be the truth.”

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Boris Johnson added he thought the Privileges Committe members knew “in their hearts” he did not lie.

In his statement, he added: “They know perfectly well that when I spoke in the Commons I was saying what I believed sincerely to be true and what I had been briefed to say, like any other minister.

“They know that I corrected the record as soon as possible; and they know that I and every other senior official and minister - including the current Prime Minister and then occupant of the same building, Rishi Sunak - believed that we were working lawfully together.

“I have been an MP since 2001. I take my responsibilities seriously. I did not lie, and I believe that in their hearts the Committee know it. But they have wilfully chosen to ignore the truth because from the outset their purpose has not been to discover the truth, or genuinely to understand what was in my mind when I spoke in the Commons.”

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Boris Johnson claimed an attempt to reverse Brexit lay behind the Privileges Committee finding he had misled parliament.

He said it was his “faith in the impartiality of our systems” which led him to commissioner the former civil servant Sue Gray to investigate parties in Downing Street.

“It is clear that my faith has been misplaced”, Johnson said. “Of course, it suits the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the SNP to do whatever they can to remove me from parliament.

“Sadly, as we saw in July last year, there are currently some Tory MPs who share that view. I am not alone in thinking that there is a witch hunt underway, to take revenge for Brexit and ultimately to reverse the 2016 referendum result.

“My removal is the necessary first step, and I believe there has been a concerted attempt to bring it about. I am afraid I no longer believe that it is any coincidence that Sue Gray - who investigated gatherings in Number 10 - is now the chief of staff designate of the Labour leader.

“Nor do I believe that it is any coincidence that her supposedly impartial chief counsel, Daniel Stilitz KC, turned out to be a strong Labour supporter who repeatedly tweeted personal attacks on me and the government.”

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Boris Johnson added the Privileges Committee had a “very important job” and should not be using their powers to mount “a political hitjob on someone they oppose”.

He said he was resigning because “it is in no one’s interest” that the process of the privileges committee “should continue for a single day further”.

But I am proud that after what is cumulatively a 15 year stint I have helped to deliver among other things a vast new railway in the Elizabeth Line and full funding for a wonderful new state of the art hospital for Hillingdon, where enabling works have already begun.

Johnson said he remained “hugely proud” of all that he said had been achieved during his time in office as Prime Minister.

He said they included “getting Brexit done, winning the biggest majority for 40 years and delivering the fastest vaccine roll out of any major European country, as well as leading global support for Ukraine.”

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Op vrijdag 9 juni 2023 19:14 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:
Nadine Dorries is geen MP meer.
Volgens the Times was haar naam van Boris Johnson's honours list geschrapt omdat de resulterende byelection nadelig zou kunnen zijn voor Sunak (als ze naar het House of Lords zou gaan verdwijnt ze uit het lagerhuis, en dan moet er een byelection komen om een nieuwe MP voor haar district te verkiezen). Nu ze opstapt komt die byelection er toch. Haar manier om wraak te nemen?
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https://www.theguardian.c(...)ith-immediate-effect

[ twitter ]

[ twitter ]

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Op zaterdag 10 juni 2023 00:25 schreef Tijger_m het volgende:

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Yep, zo dom als maar zijn kan.

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Some of Johnson’s allies have also speculated privately that he would be better off relocating to Mid Bedfordshire, the constituency soon to be vacated by Nadine Dorries, one of his most loyal supporters.

Dorries is widely expected to be made a peer in Johnson’s resignation honours list, which is yet to emerge. Her seat is one of the Tories’ safest.

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Furious Tories turn against Boris Johnson after ‘bias’ outburst

Rishi Sunak is under growing pressure to bar Boris Johnson from standing as a Conservative candidate at the next election, as senior Tories accused the former prime minister and his allies of a coordinated attempt to derail the government.

Amid anger at Johnson within the party over his explosive departure, in which he said he was only leaving Westminster “for now” and accused a cross-party committee of “egregious bias”, there is now a concerted push among senior Tories to ensure Johnson has no route back to the Commons for the foreseeable future.

One senior member of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, a former backer of Johnson, said it was the clear view among colleagues that he should be blocked from standing for another Tory seat at the next election.

“The pantomime has to end. He has to be stopped by whatever means and the sooner the better,” said the senior figure.

Another grandee on the backbenches, who is close to Sunak and who used to support Johnson, added: “The way he has behaved in insulting the process of the House of Commons is disgraceful. He thinks he can just casually insult parliament. If he is allowed to stand again he will continue to undermine the government.”

Writing in the Observer, former Tory deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine says Johnson’s angry resignation and threat of a return have “all the characteristics of a disaster turned into an opportunity”.

He should not be allowed to run for the party again, Lord Heseltine says. “That is Boris’s basic problem,” he writes. “Words are designed to make his audience believe whatever they want to believe. There is no anchor to any discernible truth or sense of integrity.

“To me it is inconceivable that in these circumstances he could stand as a Conservative member of parliament again. It is up to Conservative central office to affirm an official Conservative candidate. No doubt he will now go out into the world and make huge sums of money, writing history as he thinks it was conducted. But it will have little to do with the reality of the mess he left behind.”

There has been wild speculation in Westminster over Johnson’s next move, with some suggesting he could even attempt to run in the Mid Bedfordshire byelection caused by the resignation of Nadine Dorries, one of his staunchest backers. However, Tory sources dismissed the idea as a non-starter.

It comes as another close Johnson ally, Nigel Adams, triggered a third potentially damaging byelection by announcing on Saturday that he was stepping down with immediate effect. Sunak was already facing byelections in Johnson’s Uxbridge seat, which Labour are confident of winning, and Dorries’s constituency, which is being targeted by the Lib Dems.

Some senior figures in Sunak’s team believe that the activities of a rump of MPs who remain fiercely loyal to Johnson are designed to cause maximum disruption. “It’s a Thelma and Louise moment, deciding to drive off the cliff together,” said a minister.

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Op zaterdag 10 juni 2023 21:07 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:

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https://www.theguardian.c(...)gel-adams-byelection

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...There is no anchor to any discernible truth...

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Nicola Sturgeon arrested in SNP finances inquiry
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Nicola Sturgeon has been arrested by police investigating allegations of financial misconduct by the Scottish National party.

Sturgeon, who quit as first minister and SNP leader in early April, is the third person to be arrested as part of Operation Branchform, the Police Scotland investigation into allegations that more than £600,000 in donations for an independence campaign was misspent by the party.

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Op zondag 11 juni 2023 15:43 schreef Hyperdude het volgende:

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https://www.theguardian.c(...)are_AndroidApp_Other

Zo dan!