quote:

Cyclone Penny has intensified to Category 2 strength in the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Penny has intensified to Category 2 strength overnight in the Coral Sea and slowed down significantly.

Bureau of Meteorology Weather Services Manager, Dr Richard Wardle, said the latest advice placed Cyclone Penny approximately 1000km northeast of Townsville and indicated delayed coastal impacts, which we are unlikely to see before Tuesday of next week.

"There are still a range of scenarios possible regarding Cyclone Penny's future track and where it may cross the coast, or indeed if it will cross the coast.

"Some models keep the system well offshore after weakening to a low.

"Of course, we'll be watching the situation closely over the weekend and may issue a Flood Watch if the situation changes," he said. "The most likely scenario is convective rainfall which is typical for this time of year, but only isolated moderate to heavy falls are expected.

"The flood risk will be closely monitored and assessed by our hydrologists, but at this stage a Flood Watch—if required—is more likely to be issued early next week."

Elevated river levels are expected to continue for several days for the following catchments in Queensland's far north:

Eastern Cape: Jacky Jacky Creek, Olive and Pascoe Rivers and Lockhart River.
Western Cape: Jardine, Ducie, Jackson and Skardon, Wenlock Embley and Mission Rivers.

quote:

Cyclonic system bringing more heavy rain to northern Queensland

Residents in northern Queensland are being urged to prepare for wild weather and flooding, with ex-Tropical Cyclone Penny expected to dump hundreds of millimetres of rain across coastal communities from Rockhampton to Cairns over the next few days.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said the tropical low was close to the Queensland coastline, bringing heavy rainfall to Rockhampton and Mackay on Tuesday.

BOM meteorologist Gordon Banks said the system would then move north.

"Certainly Mackay, Proserpine, Hamilton Island [will be affected] — and as we go through the week we'll see places such as Townsville and eventually the north tropical coast also affected, with heavy rainfall moving up there probably through Wednesday and Thursday," Mr Banks said.

"We could be seeing falls over six-hour periods in excess of 150 millimetres."

Mr Banks said flooding was likely in parts of northern Queensland that had already experienced record-breaking rain last month, brought on by ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen.

The heaviest rain fell at Halifax, east of Ingham, which recorded 681 millimetres in 24 hours and broke the 53-year-old national December record.

Further north, the Daintree experienced flooding and landslides, with almost a metre and a half of rainfall recorded during the December period.

"Rivers along the north tropical coast have had quite significant flooding in the last few weeks and the catchments are still saturated," Mr Banks said.

"So heavy rainfall, which could exceed 200 millimetres over relatively short periods, could see those rivers rise very rapidly."

twitter:

ForceThirteen twitterde op vrijdag 11-01-2019 om 05:17:18 With the tropics quiet, the north #Pacific shows off a very large and potent extratropical #cyclone near the Aleutian islands, peaking earlier today with a pressure estimate of 937mb https://t.co/01BxokJ1lL reageer retweet

twitter:

iCyclone twitterde op donderdag 07-02-2019 om 10:48:57 Twin cyclones threaten Rodrigues, a tiny island with 42K residents in the middle of the S Indian Ocean. #FUNANI is likely to miss, but #GELENA may strike the island (or pass very close) Saturday as an intense #cyclone. https://t.co/Re3JfRWDan reageer retweet

quote:

Tropical Storm Oma upgraded to category 2
Tropical Cyclone Oma has been upgraded to a Category 2 system by Vanuatu's Meteorological Service.

Oma is now about 55km west of Santo and is slowly moving east southeast.

Winds close to the centre are estimated to be 95km/h and gusts of 130km/h are expected.

The number of provinces predicted to bear the brunt of Cyclone Oma has also been extended and now includes Torba, Sanma, Penma and Malampa which have been placed on red alert by the National Disaster Office.

Shefa Province and the capital Port Vila is on Yellow alert meaning it too must be ready to shut down.

The latest cyclone warning said seas would be very rough with heavy to phenomenal swells expected and there was a marine warning in force for the whole of Vanuatu.

Crews of vessels are strongly advised not to go out as high seas are expected for northern and central coastal and open waters.

Schools and businesses are shutting down with people warned to stay at safe at home.

Communications Officer for the National Disaster Management Office, Presley Tari, said with an increasing number of disasters over recent years, most people in Vanuatu were alert all the time and knew what to do.

He said more parts of the country were likely to shut down as the cyclone moves south.

"NDMO is advising everyone to stay alert in their houses. Prepare themselves for the cyclone coming. So we are asking those with the red alert to close down their business and even the schools I think [are] already closed like in the places where the red alert is."

Mr Tari said there were already reports on social media of damaged crops on northern islands from brief wild winds over the weekend ahead of Cyclone Oma.

Head forecaster for Vanuatu's Meteorological Service, Fred Jockley, said people needed to heed messages from the National Disaster Management Office to prepare themselves for the cyclone.

"For those who have not taken the warning seriously, they should start preparing themselves before the system actually comes over if it maintains its track of movement."

Torba Province includes Banks and Torres Islands with a population of around 10,000 people and Sanma is home to 54,000 people mainly living on the islands of Santo and Malo.

quote:

Op dinsdag 19 februari 2019 09:26 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

De Euro heeft wat leuks in petto voor 92W

[ afbeelding ]

Wel erg vroeg of niet?

quote:

Op dinsdag 19 februari 2019 09:26 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

De Euro heeft wat leuks in petto voor 92W

[ afbeelding ]

Wel erg vroeg of niet?

quote:

Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone "Veronica" forms near Western Australia, prepare now

Tropical Cyclone "Veronica" formed north of Kimberly, Western Australia on March 19, 2019. The low rapidly intensified yesterday and BOM expects it to continue intensifying to a severe category with a severe tropical cyclone and coastal crossing possible for the Pilbara coast over the weekend.

This will be a slow-moving and intense tropical cyclone with significant and prolonged wind, storm surge and flooding impacts.

There is a level of uncertainty in the exact track but communities along the Pilbara coast should begin preparing now for what could be a dangerous period over the weekend, BOM's Senior Meteorologist Andrea Peace said.

quote:

Mass evacuations have been triggered for communities from Groote Eylandt down the Gulf of Carpentaria, as Tropical Cyclone Trevor looks to turn into a category four system.

The Bureau of Meteorology is advising Trevor will regain intensity and make landfall in the Northern Territory somewhere between Groote Eylandt and Borroloola later this week.

The weather system is currently crossing Cape York, south of Weipa, in Queensland.

The Bureau of Meteorology's NT manager, Todd Smith, said the weather system would be severe and residents needed to prepare early.

"This is a very serious event. That the cyclone is about to move back into the Gulf of Carpentaria, we have some time for people to act — and the time is now," he said.

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Never again will another Florence nor Michael devastate and forever alter the lives of those living along the eastern United States coastline in any future Atlantic hurricane seasons, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced this week.

The names of these two catastrophic storms, which wreaked havoc and claimed lives from Florida to Virginia during the 2018 season, have been retired by the WMO’s Region IV Hurricane Committee, which includes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center.

https://www.accuweather.c(...)-used-again/70007762

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Very rare tropical storm near Brazil
TS Iba: Very rare tropical storm forms near the coast of Brazil, the first since 2010 and third ever in recorded history

A rare tropical storm named Iba by the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center (BNHC) formed near the coast of Brazil on March 24, 2019. This is the first tropical storm to form in this region since 2010 and third ever in recorded history.

At 16:00 UTC on March 24, Tropical Storm "Iba" had maximum winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and estimated central pressure 1 008 hPa, according to the BNHC.

Its location at 18:00 was estimated about 354 km (220 miles) E of Sao Mateus and 356 km (221 miles) SE of Porto Seguro. Gradual strengthening and movement toward the SSW are expected over the next 24 hours.

A high surf warning is in effect for areas between Caravelas, Bahia and Vitoria, Espirito Santo, Brazil. Waves from SE/E up to 2.5 m (8.2 feet) are expected (valid until 00:00 UTC, March 26).

GFS forecast model takes Iba SSW over the next two days and then east and far away from the coast.

twitter:

CIMSS_Satellite twitterde op zondag 24-03-2019 om 19:06:04 1-minute Mesoscale Domain Sector #GOES16 Visible imagery of Tropical Storm #Iba *off the coast of #Brazil* is the most 2019 thing I've seen this week: https://t.co/WuVHNBhyIp https://t.co/it91RP7gLd reageer retweet

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Rodrigues Island without power, roads impassable as Tropical Cyclone "Joaninha" moves over

The center of Tropical Cyclone "Joaninha" passed very close to Rodrigues Island, Southwest Indian Ocean on March 26 and 27, 2019, producing strong southerly winds, heavy rain and large swells. This is the 13th named storm and 9th intense tropical cyclone of the record-breaking 2018/19 Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season.

At 12:00 UTC on March 26, Joaninha's center was located about 159 km (99 miles) E of Port Mathurin, Mauritius. The system had maximum sustained winds near 213 km/h (132 mph) and was moving at 15 km/h (9.3 mph) through an area of warm waters which continued to fuel it.

At closest, it passed just 80 km (50 miles) from the island, bringing prolonged destructive winds and heavy rainfall.

Port Mathurin had wind gusts over 100 km/h (62 mph) for more than 33 hours, with the highest gust of 161 km/h (100 mph).

According to media reports, 408 people have been registered in shelters while strong winds cut electricity throughout the island and made roads impassable.

The island received more than 200 mm (7.87 inches) of rain and more is expected until March 28

quote:

Op dinsdag 26 maart 2019 10:34 schreef heywoodu het volgende:
Mobiel internet is wat traag dus het zoekt niet zo lekker op de kaart, maar ligt Caraguatatuba tussen die plaatsen die ze noemen?

twitter:

accuweather twitterde op woensdag 03-04-2019 om 14:10:31 With this year's 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, we're introducing a new kind of risk map. https://t.co/Sgcqj9OWmS (1/3) https://t.co/9RzKA0b0fX reageer retweet

quote:

Op woensdag 3 april 2019 19:41 schreef INViCTuS het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

twitter:

accuweather twitterde op woensdag 03-04-2019 om 14:10:31 With this year's 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, we're introducing a new kind of risk map. https://t.co/Sgcqj9OWmS (1/3) https://t.co/9RzKA0b0fX reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 5 april 2019 11:01 schreef Bugno2 het volgende:

[..]

Meer Golf en East Coast dan Caribbean dus dit jaar. Benieuwd hoe accuraat deze voorspellingen blijken.

twitter:

philklotzbach twitterde op donderdag 04-04-2019 om 17:00:01 Seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU predicts slightly below-average season: 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes & 2 major (Cat 3+, >=111 mph) hurricanes. Primary reason for slightly below-avg forecast is anticipated continuation of weak #ElNino. https://t.co/uxucIf9qQB https://t.co/o0pWt1GUBh reageer retweet

quote:

Een nieuwe schaal om orkanen te duiden moet de Amerikaanse burger meer inzicht geven hoe gevaarlijk een naderende orkaan is. Het commerciële Accuweather heeft een nieuwe schaal ontwikkeld en gaat deze RI-Scale vanaf nu in al haar producten gebruiken op de Amerikaanse markt.

Accuweather is een commercieel Amerikaans weerbedrijf. Het National Hurricane Center (onderdeel van het NWS, zeg maar het Amerikaanse KNMI) neemt de schaal niet over en zal de bekende Saffir-Simpson schaal blijven gebruiken.

De nieuwe schaal is door AccuWeather de Real Impact Scale gedoopt en daarmee wordt direct duidelijk waarom het bedrijf de nieuwe schaal heeft ontwikkeld. Ze willen hiermee aangeven wat de daadwerkelijke impact boven land zal zijn van de orkaan en kijken met de nieuwe schaal niet alleen naar de wind.

Orkanen zijn meer dan alleen wind
De RI-Scale kijkt namelijk naast de wind ook naar overvloedige regenval, stormvloed en economische schade die bij de orkaan worden verwacht. Allemaal elementen die op de uiteindelijke impact een grote rol spelen.

Orkaan Harvey
Het idee en de ontwikkeling van de schaal kreeg vorm in 2017 toen orkaan Harvey voor enorme regenval en overstromingen zorgde in Houston (de vierde grootste stad van de VS). Niet alleen de wind speelde bij deze orkaan een belangrijke factor maar ook de overvloedige regenval. Op gebruikelijke schaal was Harvey een cat. 4 orkaan, maar op de RI-Scale zou Harvey een cat. 5 orkaan zijn geweest.

Florence en Sandy
Amerikaanse meteorologen hadden in 2018 veel moeite om het publiek te overtuigen dat orkaan Florence voor enorme problemen zou gaan zorgen. De reden? Florence was niet meer dan een cat. 1 orkaan. Voor veel Amerikanen een reden om de evacuatie adviezen naast zich neer te leggen en thuis te blijven. Dat Florence langzaam bewoog en nog dagen voor extreme regenval en overstromingen zou zorgen werd door een groot deel van het publiek genegeerd.

Florence zou op de nieuwe AccuWeather schaal een RI4 zijn geweest.

Een ander duidelijk voorbeeld is Orkaan Sandy. Sandy was op het moment dat ze aan land kwam volgens de Saffir-Simpson schaal niet eens een orkaan meer, maar zou op de nieuwe schaal een RI5 zijn geweest.

De Ri-Scale bestaat uit 6 schaaldelen. Naast de schaaldelen 1 tot en met 5 is er ook het schaaldeel Minder dan 1. Deze ‘Less than 1’ variant kan worden gebruikt voor stormen die het qua wind niet halen om een Cat. 1 storm te worden op de Saffir-Simpson schaal, maar evengoed wel een impact kunnen hebben en voor ernstige schade en/of slachtoffers kunnen zorgen.

Kritiek
De introductie van de nieuwe RI-Scale naast de bestaande schaal leidt ook tot kritiek vanuit de Amerikaanse meteowereld. Sommige meteorologen en wetenschappers zijn bang voor verwarring of paniek bij het publiek. Want hoe gaan mensen om met een storm die op de ene schaal een 1 is en op de andere schaal een 5.

Het neemt niet weg dat ook bij het NHC men niet happy is met de huidige Saffir-Simpson schaal en een nieuwe methode zou willen. Er zijn in de afgelopen jaren nieuwe methodieken van waarschuwen onderzocht, maar allemaal ‘afgeschoten’ omdat ze te complex en te verwarrend waren.

Bij de overheid zijn ze er dus nog niet uit en dus heeft AccuWeather nu het voortouw genomen met de RI-Scale. Het wordt interessant hoe de twee schalen naast elkaar gaan worden gebruikt. Accuweather dat in de Amerikaanse media veel voorbij komt zal ongetwijfeld de twee schalen hanteren. Andere mediabedrijven en ook de overheid zullen de RI-Scale niet gaan hanteren. Het is goed mogelijk dat hierdoor verwarring gaat ontstaan.

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Op dinsdag 30 april 2019 10:24 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ziet er niet goed uit. Dit gaat haast zeker voor doden zorgen.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op dinsdag 30 april 2019 10:25 schreef Perrin het volgende:

[..]

Veel doden, vrees ik. Bangladesh gaat weer eens onderlopen

twitter:

philklotzbach twitterde op dinsdag 04-06-2019 om 17:00:00 Updated seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for near-normal season: 14 named storms (including Andrea which formed in May), 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Slight increase from early April outlook. Fate of #ElNino uncertain.https://t.co/BVkRA9LqyA https://t.co/1tNsMJYn10 reageer retweet

quote:

300 000 evacuating ahead of Tropical Cyclone "Vayu" - the strongest since 1998 to hit NW India

Nearly 300 000 people living in the path of Tropical Cyclone "Vayu" are set to be evacuated to 700 shelter homes, India's Home Ministry said Wednesday, June 12, 2019. Vayu is expected to cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva, around Veraval and Diu region, as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speeds between 145 and 155 km/h (90 - 86 mph) and gusts to 170 km/h (105 mph) on the morning of June 13 (local time).

Tropical cyclones of this strength are rare for the region.
If the forecast verifies, this will be the strongest tropical cyclone to hit NW India since June 9, 1998, when 10 000 people lost their lives.
As of 00:00 UTC on June 12, the center of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "Vayu" was located about 470 km (290 miles) WNW of Goa, 280 km (174 miles) SSW of Mumbai and 340 km (210 mph) S of Veraval, Gujarat, according to RSMC New Delhi.

Its estimated maximum sustained wind speed was 120 km/h (75 mph) with gusts to 140 km/h (85 mph). The estimated central pressure was 980 hPa.

Nearly 300 000 people are evacuating. All train services likely to be affected have been canceled and schools and colleges in affected districts closed until Friday.

The Gujarat tourism department has urged travelers, who have planned their visits in coming two-three days, to postpone.

Warnings in place

Wind warning
June 12: Wind speed is very likely to become gale wind speed reaching 135 - 145 km/h (84 - 90 mph) gusting to 160 km/h (100 mph) over east-central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea by June 12. It is very likely to be 60 - 70 km/h (37 - 44 mph) gusting to 80 km/h (50 mph) over Gujarat Coast from the morning of June 12 and become gale wind speed reaching 145 - 155 km/h (90 - 96 mph) gusting to 170 km/h (105 mph) by the night. It is very likely to be 50 - 60 km/h (31 - 37 mph) gusting to 70 km/h (43 mph) over Maharashtra Coast.

June 13: Gale wind speed of the order of 145 - 155 km/h (90 - 96 mph) gusting to 170 km/h (105 mph) very likely over north Arabian Sea and Gujarat coast in morning hours and decrease gradually thereafter. It is very likely to be 50 - 60 km/h (31 - 37 mph) gusting to 70 km/h (43 mph) over north Maharashtra Coasts and northern parts of east-central Arabian Sea.

Sea condition
The sea condition is very likely to become very high to phenomenal over east-central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea and Gujarat coast from June 12 and over the north Arabian Sea on June 13.

The Sea condition is very likely to very rough to high along and off Maharashtra Coast on June 12 and 13.

Fishermen Warning
The fishermen are advised not to venture into Eastcentral Arabian Sea and along and off Maharashtra Coast on 12th; northeast Arabian sea and along and off Gujarat coast on June 12 and 13.

Storm Surge Warning
Storm surge of height of about 1.5 - 2.0 m (4.9 - 6.5 feet) above the astronomical tides likely to inundate the low lying coastal areas of Kutch, Devbhoomi, Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts at the time of landfall.

Damage Expected and Action suggested for Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Rajkot, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat:

Total destruction of thatched houses/extensive damage to Kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.

Bending/uprooting of power and communication poles.

Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.

Widespread damage to standing crops, plantation, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down bushy trees like mango.

Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

quote:

Op vrijdag 28 juni 2019 11:18 schreef B300 het volgende:
Ik ga in de tweede helft van Augustus naar Florida, vind het stiekem toch wel spannend

twitter:

DylanFedericoWX twitterde op zondag 07-07-2019 om 11:41:25 While there remains significant disagreement among models with tropical development in the NE Gulf later this week, 0z EPS Probabilities are the highest they’ve been thus far, with a ~90% of a tropical depression forming. Hard to ignore. #tropics 🌀🌀🌀 https://t.co/TTk6Vazg4Q reageer retweet

twitter:

MJVentrice twitterde op maandag 08-07-2019 om 11:24:48 Per yesterday's 12Z afternoon guidance, our calibrated ECMWF EPS is now showing an 80% chance for a tropical cyclone to spin up over the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days. Track and intensity is still unclear, so folks from Texas through Florida should monitor this threat. https://t.co/tAFzm0ZZDP reageer retweet

twitter:

RyanMaue twitterde op woensdag 10-07-2019 om 21:29:14 20-30" of rain in the Euro model forecasts from Barry across Louisiana.Even if it's only a tropical storm or a minor hurricane, the very large circulation will transport boatloads of Gulf moisture northward into Mississippi River. https://t.co/G9qFi5WHIE reageer retweet

quote:

Op donderdag 11 juli 2019 01:10 schreef Eyjafjallajoekull het volgende:
New Orleans is al aan het overstromen nu, en dan is er ook nog kans dat er een orkaan gaat komen. Kan nog 'leuk' worden.

twitter:

RyanMaue twitterde op woensdag 10-07-2019 om 21:29:14 20-30" of rain in the Euro model forecasts from Barry across Louisiana.Even if it's only a tropical storm or a minor hurricane, the very large circulation will transport boatloads of Gulf moisture northward into Mississippi River. https://t.co/G9qFi5WHIE reageer retweet

"When Katrina came ashore, the Mississippi was at 3ft. It is currently sitting at 16".

https://slate.com/busines(...)er-this-weekend.html

quote:

Op zaterdag 13 juli 2019 14:47 schreef aloa het volgende:
WKN / Water Middellandse Zee zeer warm

twitter:

RyanMaue twitterde op zaterdag 20-07-2019 om 19:57:02 Getting worse. The cell that was tornado warned over Wisconsin has erupted over Lake Michigan. Somehow this storm system has tapped into the warmish Lake water fuel and is dumping it like crazy. Severe warning now for Manistee County (home). https://t.co/19Q3hepdyZ reageer retweet

quote:

Op zaterdag 20 juli 2019 20:05 schreef Droopie het volgende:

twitter:

RyanMaue twitterde op zaterdag 20-07-2019 om 19:57:02 Getting worse. The cell that was tornado warned over Wisconsin has erupted over Lake Michigan. Somehow this storm system has tapped into the warmish Lake water fuel and is dumping it like crazy. Severe warning now for Manistee County (home). https://t.co/19Q3hepdyZ reageer retweet

quote:

After drenching the Philippines and Taiwan, Tropical Storm Danas unleashed heavy rainfall and gusty winds on parts of South Korea and Japan from Friday night into Saturday.

Danas then made landfall in western South Korea on Saturday before emerging into the Sea of Japan (East Sea) on Sunday.

Rainfall totaled 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) across much of southern South Korea and far southwest Japan through Saturday with more downpours on the way.

Locally heavy rainfall will continue across much of South Korea and southwest Japan through the day on Sunday with additional rainfall of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) in many locations.

https://www.accuweather.c(...)korea-japan/70008817

Typhoon Danas dissipates after making landfall in Korea's southern regions

quote:

Struggling 95L could become more organized later this week
The wave known as Invest 95L weakened on Monday while traversing the northeast Caribbean, known as the “hurricane graveyard” for its tendency toward strong wind shear and dry air. Squally weather was increasing across eastern parts of the Greater Antilles, though. 95L could produce localized downpours as it moves across the Greater Antilles from Tuesday into Wednesday. A flash flood watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least Tuesday night.

Later in the week, 95L will approach the very warm waters of the western Bahamas. About 10% of the 12Z Monday GFS and European model runs showed development of 95L in this region late next week. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 2 pm EDT Monday, NHC gave the system a 10% chance of development in the vicinity of The Bahamas between Wednesday and Saturday.

quote:

Op zaterdag 3 augustus 2019 11:35 schreef Sigaartje het volgende:
Het is een rustig orkaanseizoen dit jaar in de Cariben

twitter:

philklotzbach twitterde op maandag 05-08-2019 om 19:30:00 Updated seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU continues to predict near-average season: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. These numbers include Andrea and Barry that formed in May and July, respectively.https://t.co/1NupvVv24O https://t.co/ODM3mafo33 reageer retweet

quote:

Op vrijdag 9 augustus 2019 12:00 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

twitter:

philklotzbach twitterde op maandag 05-08-2019 om 19:30:00 Updated seasonal #hurricane forecast from @:ColoradoStateU continues to predict near-average season: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. These numbers include Andrea and Barry that formed in May and July, respectively.https://t.co/1NupvVv24O https://t.co/ODM3mafo33 reageer retweet

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op vrijdag 9 augustus 2019 12:42 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Dan moet het binnenkort wel losgaan zou je denken.

quote:

Op woensdag 14 augustus 2019 09:19 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Misschien broeit er volgende week ook iets...

quote:

Op woensdag 14 augustus 2019 09:28 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Ook voor Texas volgens GFS.

quote:

Op woensdag 14 augustus 2019 09:29 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Ja zie paar posts hier boven... ene keer 'gone' ... andere keer een major hurricane...

twitter:

BenNollWeather twitterde op donderdag 15-08-2019 om 14:30:00 Over the next several weeks, the Atlantic basin will likely become less hostile toward tropical development 📈Easterly waves are expected to be invigorated by patterns of enhanced convection over Africa. https://t.co/bBIr46Ieko reageer retweet

quote:

Atlantic Hurricane Season Slumber May Not Generate an August Storm for First Time in 22 Years

The Atlantic hurricane season may continue its slumber through the rest of August for the first time in over 20 years, a newly released forecast says.

Below-average tropical cyclone activity is forecast in the Atlantic Basin through Sept. 1, according to the latest short-term tropical outlook released Monday by Colorado State University.

The team, headed by Phil Klotzbach, said vertical wind shear – the change in wind direction and speed with height that can rip apart tropical disturbances and storms – is "forecast to be fairly low" by late-August standards in parts of the basin.

However, abundant dry, sinking air – another hostile factor that has recently suppressed activity in the central and eastern Atlantic Basin – is forecast to persist through the next two weeks, the CSU outlook said.

This dry air squelches the atmosphere's ability to generate persistent thunderstorms near an area of low pressure, the first step to develop a tropical storm or hurricane.

Another factor that can boost hurricane activity, a large-scale weather pattern called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), is also forecast to remain weak, CSU said.

If you haven't heard much about the hurricane season since Barry, it's not your imagination.

Tropical Depression Three briefly spun up off the South Florida coast a week after Barry in late July. Other than that small blip, the Atlantic Basin has been a ghost town over the past month.

Klotzbach noted it was the first time in 20 years without an Atlantic named storm from July 15 through Aug. 18.

August failed to generate a single Atlantic storm only twice since 1950 – in 1961 and 1997 – according to NOAA's best track database.

Only eight storms developed in the 1997 season, three of which became hurricanes.

A strong El Niño developed that summer and suppressed the number of storms, particularly in the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Danny did landfall along the northern Gulf Coast in July 1997, however, illustrating that the number of landfalls are not correlated to the number of storms. We'll come back to that important point later.

Three storms have formed each August, on average, over the past 69 years. One or two of those later would become hurricanes, with one becoming at least Category 3 intensity in a typical August.

Recent Augusts have been much more active.

In both 2012 and 1995, eight August storms formed. Seven storms formed in both August 2011 and 2004.

Given no expected tropical development over the next few days, Klotzbach noted 2019 will have the least-active start to the season in 17 years.

Entering the Heart of the Season
Despite the slow start, a large majority of the hurricane season remains ahead.

September is typically the most active month of the season. Of the 789 total Atlantic Basin storms in a 69-year period since 1950, one-third of them – 261 storms – have formed in September.

Taken together, 77 percent of storms, 87 percent of hurricanes and 95 percent of all Category 3 or stronger hurricanes have formed from August through October.

quote:

Op dinsdag 20 augustus 2019 10:59 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

quote:

Op woensdag 21 augustus 2019 08:38 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Nou een dag later en we hebben Tropische Storm Chantal

Niet dat het gevaar oplevert, geen bedreiging voor land, maar schijnbaar konden ze het niet laten om die depressie alsnog op te waarderen..

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Op donderdag 29 augustus 2019 20:53 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:
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EricHolthaus twitterde op vrijdag 30-08-2019 om 19:23:32 Plus, #Dorian is hitting at the end of the month, over a holiday weekend -- money is tight. A perfect recipe for folks falling through the gaping cracks of standard preparedness messaging. https://t.co/HmpkzzP6AS reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 30 augustus 2019 19:33 schreef aloa het volgende:
Topic over Dorian staat tijdelijk in Nieuws.

NWS / [ACTUEEL] Orkaan Dorian op weg naar Florida

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Op dinsdag 3 september 2019 15:17 schreef Ener-G het volgende:
Holy crap https://twitter.com/iceyefi/status/1168618527751888898

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kionnemcghee twitterde op maandag 02-09-2019 om 17:04:47 Hurricane Update: Iram Lewis,Member of Parliament, Central Grand Bahama sent me this video of Freeport International Airport: FPO https://t.co/oDPIJXBnP9 reageer retweet

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Op woensdag 4 september 2019 08:38 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
en de lange termijn van GFS geeft...

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Niet weer de Bahama's toch..

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ReedTimmerAccu twitterde op woensdag 04-09-2019 om 08:13:57 The horrifying sound of a cat 5 eye wall from Marsh Harbour. Listen to the extreme whistle! https://t.co/HFZVXGgOPy reageer retweet

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Tropical Cyclone "Lingling," known as Liwayway in the Philippines, formed September 1 in the Western Pacific Ocean as the 14th named tropical cyclone of the 2019 Pacific typhoon season. The storm is heading toward southern Ryukyu Islands, Japan and the Korean Peninsula. The Pacific Ocean will remain very active in the days and weeks ahead. Make sure you check updated numerical model predictions at the end of the report.

At 14:00 UTC (22:00 PHT), the center of Typhoon "Lingling," called Liwayway in the Philippines, was located at around 470 km (292 miles) NE of Basco, Batanes, Philippines. It had maximum sustained winds near 140 km/h (87 mph) and gusts to 170 km/h (105 mph).

The typhoon maintains its strength as it moves toward southern Ryukyu Islands, Japan, PAGASA said 14:00 UTC.

twitter:

EarthUncutTV twitterde op donderdag 05-09-2019 om 08:00:09 Video of the incredible towering eye wall of #typhoon #Lingling as the eye passes over Miyakojima #Japan https://t.co/CrvOF3uEVN reageer retweet

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Op maandag 9 september 2019 22:51 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ziet er niet echt goed uit....

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Op maandag 9 september 2019 22:53 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Incoming Koerst richting zuidelijke Bahama's, zo te zien?

twitter:

iCyclone twitterde op dinsdag 27-08-2019 om 18:55:21 Let me step away from #DORIAN for one sec to share this hawt promo for my intense TV series #HurricaneMan—premiering 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on @ScienceChannel! Admit you're excited. Go on. https://t.co/ifb619zXIl reageer retweet

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Op dinsdag 10 september 2019 14:32 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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iCyclone twitterde op dinsdag 27-08-2019 om 18:55:21 Let me step away from #DORIAN for one sec to share this hawt promo for my intense TV series #HurricaneMan—premiering 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on @:ScienceChannel! Admit you're excited. Go on. https://t.co/ifb619zXIl reageer retweet

KIJKUHHH!

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Op dinsdag 10 september 2019 21:56 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Wordt dat ook ergens uitgezonden? Op youtube ofzo?

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NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.2N 76.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 26.2N 76.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 27.2N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 28.7N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2019 30.0N 79.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 31.4N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 32.5N 77.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 33.3N 75.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 33.7N 73.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 33.9N 69.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

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Op donderdag 12 september 2019 09:13 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Forecast voor 95L na 48 uur
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https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt80.egrr..txt

oh oh...

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Op donderdag 12 september 2019 09:19 schreef heywoodu het volgende:

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Is dat die 70% een post eerder of die oranje die op weg is vanuit Kaapverdië?

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ZachMalochWX twitterde op vrijdag 13-09-2019 om 00:03:59 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will continue moving northwest. Looks to impact Florida by the weekend. #SWFL can expect scattered rain and storms Saturday afternoon and only a few showers Sunday. Rain totals won’t be impressive. @winknews https://t.co/8CVrg1wE2f reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 13 september 2019 00:06 schreef Nikonlover het volgende:
Hij heet Nijntje

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ZachMalochWX twitterde op vrijdag 13-09-2019 om 00:03:59 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will continue moving northwest. Looks to impact Florida by the weekend. #SWFL can expect scattered rain and storms Saturday afternoon and only a few showers Sunday. Rain totals won’t be impressive. @:winknews https://t.co/8CVrg1wE2f reageer retweet

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CollinGrossWx twitterde op dinsdag 17-09-2019 om 17:09:14 Tropical Depression Ten has formed in the central tropical Atlantic. It’s forecasted to strengthen into Hurricane #Imelda by Friday morning near the islands. @StormHour https://t.co/1RF3s6qgfD reageer retweet

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Op dinsdag 17 september 2019 22:28 schreef Nikonlover het volgende:
De bahamas zijn wel de sjaak dit seizoen..... dit is de 3e....

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CollinGrossWx twitterde op dinsdag 17-09-2019 om 17:09:14 Tropical Depression Ten has formed in the central tropical Atlantic. It’s forecasted to strengthen into Hurricane #Imelda by Friday morning near the islands. @:StormHour https://t.co/1RF3s6qgfD reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 19 september 2019 18:39 schreef Gustaf86 het volgende:
Goede topicreeks dit! Wie woont er hier allemaal nog meer in de hurricane belt? Ik woon nu op Sint Maarten.

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abc13houston twitterde op donderdag 19-09-2019 om 19:50:05 Bizarre video shows how I-10, deep in water, looks more like the Gulf! Stay home if you can, don't risk driving in this weather!https://t.co/iBlBYrqMpt https://t.co/ujg7I3Sn3m reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 19 september 2019 20:28 schreef INViCTuS het volgende:
Wel apart dat het al de 3e storm is die aan die kant van de eilanden zit en ongeveer dezelfde route heeft.

Imelda geeft veel water in Houston

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abc13houston twitterde op donderdag 19-09-2019 om 19:50:05 Bizarre video shows how I-10, deep in water, looks more like the Gulf! Stay home if you can, don't risk driving in this weather!https://t.co/iBlBYrqMpt https://t.co/ujg7I3Sn3m reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 19 september 2019 21:34 schreef heywoodu het volgende:

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Filmpje is van Harvey

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Op zaterdag 21 september 2019 14:52 schreef Wegenbouwer het volgende:
Een gebied met slecht weer wat nog boven Afrika zit, wordt nu al op 90% kans voor de vorming van een tropische storm gegeven. Kan wellicht voor een orkaan op de Azoren zorgen, want het ziet er naar uit dat ie een afzwaaier naar het noordoosten gaat maken.

Eentje om in de gaten te houden.

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Op zaterdag 21 september 2019 15:24 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Waar zie je 90% dan?

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* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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Op zaterdag 21 september 2019 15:34 schreef Wegenbouwer het volgende:

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

helemaal onderaan bij 3.
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Op zaterdag 21 september 2019 14:52 schreef Wegenbouwer het volgende:
Een gebied met slecht weer wat nog boven Afrika zit, wordt nu al op 90% kans voor de vorming van een tropische storm gegeven. Kan wellicht voor een orkaan op de Azoren zorgen, want het ziet er naar uit dat ie een afzwaaier naar het noordoosten gaat maken.

Eentje om in de gaten te houden.

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Op maandag 23 september 2019 15:48 schreef Wegenbouwer het volgende:

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Inmiddels omgedoopt tot tropische storm 13, zometeen waarschijnlijk Lorenzo. Verder weinig veranderingen in de verwachte koers; aan het einde van de week zal hij volgens zo'n beetje alle modellen naar het noorden afbuigen.

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Op vrijdag 6 september 2019 12:11 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

Cat 4 Typhoon Lingling Eyewall Batters Miyakojima Island In Japan

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Op maandag 23 september 2019 15:48 schreef Wegenbouwer het volgende:

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Inmiddels omgedoopt tot tropische storm 13, zometeen waarschijnlijk Lorenzo. Verder weinig veranderingen in de verwachte koers; aan het einde van de week zal hij volgens zo'n beetje alle modellen naar het noorden afbuigen.

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Op donderdag 26 september 2019 23:18 schreef Wegenbouwer het volgende:

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Slecht nieuws voor de Azoren: de cone van Lorenzo, inmiddels alweer net de categorie 4 aangetikt en nog steeds aan het aansterken, is iets naar rechts opgeschoven, wat betekent dat er een kans bestaat op een landfall op een van de eilanden. Waarschijnlijk niet meer als een cat.4, want de verwachting is dat hij iets in kracht gaat afnemen vanaf morgen, maar een cat.2 of 3 zal het tegen die tijd (volgende week woensdag ongeveer) nog wel zijn.

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wxjerdman twitterde op vrijdag 27-09-2019 om 13:18:39 Per NOAA's historical database, only 7 Cat. 2+ #hurricanes have tracked within 200 nautical miles of the #Azores. We'll see if #Lorenzo will maintain at least that intensity next week. https://t.co/oY4vSOJy7S reageer retweet

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philklotzbach twitterde op zondag 29-09-2019 om 14:57:36 The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than the full Atlantic #hurricane season average. #Lorenzo https://t.co/hArpzosm5H reageer retweet

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Op maandag 7 oktober 2019 07:26 schreef aloa het volgende:
Kan een cat 5 worden in de west pacific voor Hagibis.

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EricHolthaus twitterde op maandag 07-10-2019 om 14:54:44 In the Western Pacific, Super Typhoon #Hagibis just went from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane in less than 12 hours. An incredibly terrifying storm that will thankfully stay away from populated islands the next few days. https://t.co/yQE1KgzQz1 reageer retweet

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Op maandag 7 oktober 2019 14:58 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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EricHolthaus twitterde op maandag 07-10-2019 om 14:54:44 In the Western Pacific, Super Typhoon #Hagibis just went from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane in less than 12 hours. An incredibly terrifying storm that will thankfully stay away from populated islands the next few days. https://t.co/yQE1KgzQz1 reageer retweet

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Op maandag 7 oktober 2019 15:18 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Dat is snel

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Op vrijdag 18 oktober 2019 07:44 schreef aloa het volgende:
Systeem in de Golf.

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As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (21:00 UTC) October 18, Tropical Storm Nestor is located within 35 nautical miles of 27.0°N 88.5°W, about 150 mi (240 km) south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and about 280 mi (450 km) southwest of Panama City, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kn (60 mph; 95 km/h), with gusts to 60 kn (70 mph; 110 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1001 mbar (29.56 inHg), and the system is moving northeast at 19 kn (22 mph; 35 km/h). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the northeast and east from the center of Nestor.

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Op zaterdag 26 oktober 2019 10:52 schreef Olga het volgende:
Cool, ik ben vernoemd

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2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season breaks named storm days record

The Arabian Sea witnessed a rare simultaneous formation of two tropical cyclones - Kyarr on October 24 and Maha on October 30, 2019, the first since 1965. With them, the 2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season has generated 28 named storm days by November 4, breaking the old record of 21 days through November 4 set in 1996.

On Thursday, October 31, IMD confirmed that this was the first recorded case of two cyclones happening simultaneously in the Arabian Sea.

The Arabian Sea witnessed a rare simultaneous formation of two tropical cyclones - Kyarr on October 24 and Maha on October 30, 2019, the first since 1965. With them, the 2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season has generated 28 named storm days by November 4, breaking the old record of 21 days through November 4 set in 1996.

On Thursday, October 31, IMD confirmed that this was the first recorded case of two cyclones happening simultaneously in the Arabian Sea.


In its weekly weather status and outlook report, the agency stated that India received 200% excess rainfall in the week, ending on October 30. Central India registered the maximum departure with 572% excess rainfall in the past week.

For the overall rainfall in October, India received 44% excess rainfall, while the central received 99% excess and 54% for southern regions.

Tropical Cyclone "Kyarr" formed on October 24 and underwent rapid intensification, soon becoming the Arabian Sea's 2nd strongest storm on record. It peaked on Sunday, October 27 west of India as a category 4 storm with 240 km/h winds (150 mph) - Super Cyclonic Storm, the first since 2007’s category 5 Tropical Cyclone "Gonu."

The system began slowly weakening on October 29 as it headed southwest toward Somalia. It dissipated off the coast of Somalia on November 1.

Tropical Cyclone "Maha" formed on October 30. It strengthened into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 3 and into Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 4.

On November 3, Maha reached Category 3+ hurricane equivalent, the third of the season to date, tying the year with 1999 for the most North Indian Ocean major hurricane through November 3 since records began in 1972, according to meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

The cyclone is expected to weaken as it turns and runs toward India. However, an orange alert for heavy rainfall is in effect for multiple districts of Saurashtra and south Gujarat, effective November 6 and 7.

As of November 4, the 2019 North Indian Ocean has already generated 28 named storm days, shattering the old record of 21 days through November 4 set in 1996, Klotzbach said.

The season has so far had 5 Severe Cyclonic Storms, a record high, and 2 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms. It had 1 Super Cyclonic Storm, also a record high, but tied with 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999 and 2007.

The basin's first named storm was Pabuk on January 4, making it the earliest-forming cyclonic storm in a season, surpassing Hibaru in 2005.

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Typhoon "Kammuri" leaves a trail of destruction, kills at least 10 people in the Philippines

Typhoon "Kammuri", locally called Tisoy, unleashed its wrath across the Philippines, leaving a trail of destruction as the strongest typhoon to hit the nation in 2019. As of December 3, four fatalities have been reported, over 225 000 have been evacuated from Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Calabarzon and Mimaropa. Many regions have been brutally battered by floods and strong winds.

According to weather bureau PAGASA's update on December 3 issued at 12:00 UTC, Kammuri maintains its strength as it moves westward over Mindoro strait. As of 11:00 UTC, the center was estimated at 145 km (90 miles) north of Coron, Palawan, moving west at 25 km/h (15 mph) packing maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (81 mph) and gusts to 160 km/h (99 mph). Tropical Cyclone Signal #3 remains in several provinces in Luzon.

The violent typhoon made its first landfall in Sorsogon on December 2 at 15:00 UTC with winds of up to 209 km/h (130 mph), making it a Category 4 hurricane equivalent. The second landfall was in Masbate at 20:00 UTC, the third one in Marinduque at 20:30 UTC and the fourth on December 3 in Oriental Mindoro at 04:00 UTC.

As Kammuri lashed the affected areas, uprooted trees and fallen power towers can be seen everywhere, as well as ruined establishments and scattered debris. Albay's Legazpi airport, one of the major airports in the Bicol region, sustained severe damage along with SM City Legazpi.

Gubat disaster officer Luisito Mendoza said authorities were still assessing the damage in the town, but initial reports showed extensive devastation. "There is one place where water levels reached the roof. Our own personnel got hit by shattered glass," he said.

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Tropical Storm "Pawan" about to make landfall over Somalia

Tropical Cyclone "Pawan" is slowly weakening on its way toward Somalia. Landfall is expected late November 6 into November 7, south of Eyl, an ancient port town in the northeastern Nugal province. Pawan is the 8 named storm of the 2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.

Tropical Cyclone "Pawan" (06A), located approximately 926 km (575 miles) south of Salalah, Oman, and has tracked southwestward at 15 km/h (9 mph) over the past 6 hours, JTWC forecasters noted at 21:00 UTC on December 5, 2019.

Animated enhanced infrared imagery reveals a partially exposed low-level circulation center under upper-level convection. The initial position is supported by a bullseye 17:34 UTC, December 5 METOP-A ASCAT pass, lending high confidence to the initial position.

The initial intensity of 65 km/h (40 mph) is hedged on the lower end of a consensus of subjective Dvorak and automated current intensity estimates ranging up to 72 km/h (44 mph).

The cyclone remains in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and strong poleward flow aloft. The persistent southerly flow aloft has caused the majority of the flaring convection to be limited to the northern quadrants of the system.