Hurricane Season 2013 #1 Orkanen en Cyclonen

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Op zaterdag 12 januari 2013 18:58 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Van Low, naar Medium en nu High probability, in (als ik het goed heb) 24 uur...

Aloa, heb jij toegang tot kaarten die laten zien welke kant deze potentiele kandidaat opgaat?

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
81.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 80.3E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 121427Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT (120 NM
DIAMETER) SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
SOUTH AND IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 120331Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 121530Z) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

Sat Foto (deze wordt door de site constant geupdate)

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Op zaterdag 12 januari 2013 19:25 schreef the_butler het volgende:

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Tnx! gebruik je weatheronline om dit te zien? ik zie de storing wel deze kant op komen (GFS), maar de voorspelling over de sterkte kan ik nergens terug vinden.

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Op zaterdag 16 februari 2013 19:05 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Na al het nieuws over meteorieten een vraag over cycloontjes, deze jongen wordt voorspelt door het GFS model van weatheronline. Het is een groffe schatting en het model is niet betrouwbaar omdat het zo ver in de toekomst ligt. Ik zou heel graag een second opineon of een ander model zien, kijken hoeveel kans er is dat er over twee weken een joekel voor de deur ligt... iemand een suggestie?

Ik neem even aan dat deze gif niet auto-update, tijdens dit schrijven 16/02/13 staat er een erg laag druk gebied (bijna gegarandeed een cycloon) letterlijk bovenop Mauritius

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Op woensdag 20 februari 2013 19:33 schreef Lemans24 het volgende:

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Ongebruikelijke route, daar bij Borneo. Is echter hooguit een tropische storm, zo te zien.

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Op maandag 25 februari 2013 10:23 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Zal wel van TD18 zijn ?

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Op woensdag 3 april 2013 08:20 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Zoals waarsch bekend woon ik op Mauritius waar afgelopen weekend 11 mensen waaronder 6 kinderen verdronken waren door plotselinge hevige regen. Ik kreeg net deze email binnen, deze laat weer eens goed zien dat het vertrouwen in de lokale meteo in een dieptepunt zit...

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Dear all,

I am sharing this with you because I think it is of utmost importance.

In its weather bulletin last night and this morning, the BBC made a complete review of the situation in Mauritius and they forecast more torrential rain in Mauritius as from this Thursday.

The bad weather is to last until next week.

As we cannot rely on our own Meteorological services to get valuable information in time, I think it is my duty to share this with you, as I am aware of the information.

Please note that Météo France and the American weather station based in Diego Garcia have gone even further than the BBC and are announcing – on top of more torrential rainfall – the formation of a cyclone that would concern us directly around next week.

Hereunder is the video link to the full BBC broadcast.

Best regards to all of you,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21996944

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Op zaterdag 6 april 2013 07:02 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Op deze kaart kan je Mauritius heel goed zien, er staan tien cirkeltjes omheen getekend....

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Op zondag 7 april 2013 10:48 schreef the_butler het volgende:
De modellen plaatsen het pad van de Cycloon steeds verder naar het oosten, dus met een beetje mazzel blijft het oog uit de buurt. Lokale bevolking lijkt zich nog niet erg bewust te zijn van wat er mischien komen gaat. Vrienden en kennissen hebben de houding dat afgelopen Cycloon over Reunion ook reuze meeviel en dat het deze keer ook wel wat winderig zal zijn, maar niett meer dan dat. Ik ben het daar toch niet helemaal mee eens.

Maar goed we zullen zien

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The Weather Channel has released its first 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, calling for another active season.

The forecast calls for a total of 16 named storms, 9 of which are expected to become hurricanes, including 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

These forecast numbers are above the long-term average from 1950-2012 (12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) and slightly above the averages for the current active era from 1995-2012 (15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes).

Three straight Atlantic hurricane seasons have had 19 storms. Only seven Atlantic seasons have had more hurricanes than last season's 10 hurricanes. Among the four U.S. landfalls were the most intense tropical cyclone to make a U.S. landfall prior to June 1 (Tropical Storm Beryl), a soaking Tropical Storm Debby, a painfully slow Hurricane Isaac, and one of the most destructive storms in U.S. history, Superstorm Sandy. (Sandy became a "post-tropical" system shortly before landfall.)

One particular meteorological field has long-range forecasters concerned about 2013.

"One of the side effects of the anomalous weather pattern during March was a sharp increase in sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist for Weather Services International (WSI), a part of The Weather Company.

"While it is still three months before hurricane season officially begins, this early warming of the tropical waters is an indication that an active season is in store, and our statistical forecast models confirm this hypothesis," said Crawford. "Our current forecast...may be a bit conservative if the warm tropical ocean temperatures persist heading into the season."

With that said, there may be another factor that may oppose the effect of warmer-than-average ocean temperatures.

"The one potential fly in the ointment is the possible emergence of an El Nino event this summer," said Crawford.

Stronger wind shear, a nemesis to tropical cyclone development, tends to appear in parts of the Atlantic Basin in a season in which El Nino has developed.

(MORE: What is El Nino? | Origination)

"At this point, climate and statistical model solutions suggest that this outcome (El Nino) is not particularly likely, however," said Crawford.

History Shows Be Prepared Every Season!

Key hurricane season prediction statements

"Through scientists at WSI, The Weather Channel has been producing hurricane seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean since 2006," says Dr. Peter Neilley, Vice President, Global Forecasting Services.

"The forecasts are based on state-of-the-science techniques and inputs such as patterns of ocean temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Weather Channel forecasts have proven quite accurate and generally predict the number of storms within two each year."

"However, it is important to note that our forecasts are for the total number of storms that may occur anywhere within the Atlantic Ocean, and do not attempt to predict the number of storms that will make landfall in the U.S.," says Neilley.

(WeatherREADY: Hurricane safety tips)

Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro (Facebook | Twitter) points out, "Some businesses such as those who are clients of Weather Services International (WSI) find value in hurricane season forecasts. The total number of storms is of interest to me because it matters for how busy I am during the season; for example, there wasn’t a U.S. hurricane landfall in either 2009 or 2010, but the former had 9 storms and the latter 19."
“These forecasts absolutely cannot accurately predict critical details such as where or how many landfalls will occur...”
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist

"Nevertheless, as I am on record many times as saying, and as is The Weather Channel’s philosophy, these forecasts absolutely cannot accurately predict critical details such as where or how many landfalls will occur and people in hurricane-prone areas should be equally prepared every year regardless of seasonal outlooks."

Ostro adds, "In 1983 there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia, a Category 3 which hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities there as Andrew did in South Florida."

The 1992 season included four hurricanes and one U.S. landfall, Category 5 Hurricane Andrew.

"While the saying might appear trite, Andrew and Alicia exemplify that truly all it takes is one."

On the opposite side of the spectrum from those two relatively inactive hurricane seasons that each had a single devastating landfall was the 2010 season.

That year we saw a total of 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. In all, there were 19 named storms, which tied 1995 for the third most on record during a season.

(MORE: 2010 season recap)

The 2010 hurricane season included 12 hurricanes but no U.S. landfalls.

Despite the large number of storms that year, not a single hurricane and only one tropical storm made landfall in the United States.

That said, some U.S. impacts did occur, including four cyclones bringing tropical storm conditions to some part of the country. However, most of the damage and, in many cases, casualties occurred in other countries.

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Op dinsdag 9 april 2013 19:28 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Inderdaad, we komen er goed mee weg, phew...

Dit wordt dan 18 jaar op rij dat er geen "direct hit" is geweest op Mauritius, het seizoen is nog niet af maar toch...

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Op woensdag 10 april 2013 13:21 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Nou, mischien toch wat spullen inslaan en wat foto's maken. Ik vrees dat de lokale minder bedeelde bevolking hier een probleem gaat krijgen, die wonen nog in golfplaten huisjes met een zeiltje erop.

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Op woensdag 10 april 2013 15:42 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Ze geven 72% kans voor een "major hurricane striking the US coast"... tegen gemiddeld 52%

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Op woensdag 10 april 2013 20:53 schreef the_butler het volgende:
ik wacht nogsteeds op de nieuwe modellen voor Imelda, komst ze nog verder westwaarts? De wind hier begint trouwens op te steken, best vreemd - het is windstil en dan vijf minuten later waait het flink, en een half uur later is het weer bijna wind stil.... appart

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36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.5S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

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Op zaterdag 20 april 2013 20:13 schreef Canopus het volgende:
Boeiend artikel over Sandy.

http://news.sciencemag.or(...)the-earth.html?rss=1

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Op maandag 8 april 2013 23:00 schreef aloa het volgende:
Het is wel weer opvallend rustig in de west pacific..

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Op woensdag 1 mei 2013 11:52 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Cat.1 misschien net niet maar kan maar zo dat de storm verderop nog eens aan land komt.

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Op vrijdag 3 mei 2013 21:44 schreef Leeward het volgende:

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Bedankt!
Zal m'n best doen mocht het zover komen

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Op woensdag 8 mei 2013 13:50 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Deze 'forecasts' al gelezen?

http://www.weatherbell.com/2013-Hurricane-Season-Forecast

http://www.weather.com/ne(...)tlook-april-20130408

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Op woensdag 8 mei 2013 13:50 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Deze 'forecasts' al gelezen?

http://www.weatherbell.com/2013-Hurricane-Season-Forecast

http://www.weather.com/ne(...)tlook-april-20130408

Busy Hurricane Season Expected

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Alvin coming? First "Invest" of the year forms in the Eastern Pacific
The official start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is Wednesday, May 15, and it looks like Mother Nature is playing along with this idea, with the appearance yesterday of the year's first "Invest" (Invest 90E) in the Eastern Pacific. Invest 90E is moving west-northwest into the Central Pacific, and is not a threat to any land areas. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a low 5 -10 knots, and is predicted to remain low for the next four days. Ocean temperatures are a warm 29 - 30°C, and I give a 30% chance that 90E will become a tropical depression by Thursday morning, as predicted by the GFS model. If the system reaches tropical storm strength, it would be called Alvin.

_{Jeff Masters}

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Op donderdag 16 mei 2013 13:52 schreef YazooW het volgende:

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Ik heb vorig jaar de gehele ontwikkeling van Sandy gevolgd, Joe Bastardi was inderdaad vrij accuraat in zijn voorspellingen. Misschien is het een idee om de Twitter accounts van Joe Bastardi en Ryan Maue (ook van WeatherBell) in de OP te zetten.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue

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Op maandag 27 mei 2013 21:47 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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80% voor het gebied in de Oost-Pacific, lijkt de volgende tropische storm te worden

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the Pacific coast of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Barbara is rapidly intensifying as it makes landfall. Barbara should be ashore by 2 pm EDT (11 am PDT), and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall. Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29. Reliable records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949. Barbara wasted no time getting organized, and is gathering strength in impressive fashion as it nears landfall in Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area. The storm's main threat is very heavy rains of up to a foot, which will be capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the next 2 - 3 days. However, wind damage and the expected 3 - 5 foot storm surge are also a concern, since the area of the coast it is hitting, though not heavily populated, has very little hurricane experience. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that Barbara has built a partial eyewall, and the storm has already spread heavy rains ashore along portions of the Mexican coast. Satellite loops show that Barbara is a relatively small storm, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.

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Op woensdag 29 mei 2013 22:05 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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Op zaterdag 1 juni 2013 14:16 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Zijn dat de restanten van Barbara?

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Op zondag 12 mei 2013 18:56 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ook de nieuwe run laat een systeem zien in het Caribisch gebied wat via Cuba en de golf van Mexico richting Florida trekt. Blijft wel de lange termijn.

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Op woensdag 19 juni 2013 21:29 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Invest is toch nog opgewaardeerd naar Tropical Storm Barry

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Op woensdag 10 juli 2013 16:42 schreef Grielen het volgende:
Ik kan vrijdag voor beeldmateriaal zorgen van chantal, ik zit nu in miami

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Op maandag 5 augustus 2013 16:43 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Saharazand is toch funest voor de ontwikkeling van orkanen?

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The most powerful typhoon to hit the Philippines this year has triggered floods and landslides, smashed hundreds of homes and disrupted power and communication links.

Typhoon Utor, packing winds of 150 kilometres per hour near its centre and gusts of up to 185 kph, made landfall on the northern island of Luzon.

The national disaster agency said a man clearing a clogged drain was killed when a landslide buried him in mountainous Benguet province and dozens of people – mostly fishermen – are missing.

The typhoon has also badly damaged rice, corn and coconut crops.

The coastal town of Casiguran in Aurora province, 343 kilometres northeast of the capital Manila, suffered the worst damage, after the typhoon set off landslides that blocked its only access road.

“About 90 percent of our agriculture was destroyed or damaged,” Aurora governor Gerardo Noveras told ANC television, adding that the full extent of damage was still unknown.

Losing strength the typhoon moved out over the South China Sea and was expected to hit about 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

On average 20 typhoons hit the Philippines every year.

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MANILA, Philippines—A powerful typhoon battered the northern Philippines on Monday, toppling power lines and dumping heavy rain across cities and food-growing plains. The storm left at least two people dead and 44 missing.

Typhoon Utor (local name: Labuyo), described as the strongest globally this year, slammed ashore in mountainous eastern Aurora province with sustained winds of 175 kilometers (109 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 210 kph (130 mph).

Footage from ABS-CBN TV network showed a woman swept away by a raging river in neighboring Isabela province. The woman waved her hands for help as she struggled to hang on to debris while being buffeted by huge waves in the muddy waters. It was not known what happened to her.

“She has not been found, so she is missing,” said Norma Talosig, a regional civil defense director. She said the woman lived alone in a low-lying area and had refused to be evacuated.

Talosig said that in northern Nueva Vizcaya province, a 53-year-old farmer drowned while trying to rescue his water buffalo from a swift-moving flood. The animal survived.

In mountainous Benguet province, a 22-year-old man died on the way to a hospital after he was pulled from a landslide that hit a canal he was clearing, said regional civil defense official Andrew Alex Uy.

8-foot waves

The typhoon triggered waves of up to 2.5 meters (eight feet) and left scores of fishermen missing.

In northern Pangasinan province, 25 fishermen on three boats failed to return home, said provincial police spokesman Senior Inspector Ryan Manongdo.

Eighteen other fishermen from the eastern provinces of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte also were unaccounted for. Authorities were hoping they took shelter in coves and nearby islands, said Office of Civil Defense regional director Bernardo Alejandro IV.

“I hope they’re just waiting for the typhoon to pass and will show up as soon as the weather clears,” he said. A higher number of missing had been reported earlier, but some of the fishermen have returned home.

As of late Monday, Utor picked up speed as it continued to move away from the country. Government forecaster Joey Figuracion said the typhoon was 230 kilometers (140 miles) northwest of northern Ilocos Sur province’s coast, and moving to the northwest.

It was forecast to reach southern China on Wednesday.

Office of Civil Defense Administrator Eduardo del Rosario said 1,895 people from three regions had to be evacuated to shelters, with 673 houses damaged.

Utor, the Marshellese word for a squall line, was the 12th of about 20 storms and typhoons expected to lash the Philippines this year.—Teresa Cerojano with Joeal Calupitan, Hrvoje Hranjski and Jim Gomez

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Op maandag 12 augustus 2013 12:32 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Landfall cat.4...
dan denk je: Big Trouble...

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Op woensdag 14 augustus 2013 22:57 schreef YazooW het volgende:
Ziet er op de SSD in ieder geval een stuk beter als vanochtend. Het is afwachten wat het systeem gaat doen zodra hij over de Yucatan komt.