Hurricane Season 2013 #1 Orkanen en Cyclonen

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Op woensdag 3 april 2013 08:20 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Zoals waarsch bekend woon ik op Mauritius waar afgelopen weekend 11 mensen waaronder 6 kinderen verdronken waren door plotselinge hevige regen. Ik kreeg net deze email binnen, deze laat weer eens goed zien dat het vertrouwen in de lokale meteo in een dieptepunt zit...

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Dear all,

I am sharing this with you because I think it is of utmost importance.

In its weather bulletin last night and this morning, the BBC made a complete review of the situation in Mauritius and they forecast more torrential rain in Mauritius as from this Thursday.

The bad weather is to last until next week.

As we cannot rely on our own Meteorological services to get valuable information in time, I think it is my duty to share this with you, as I am aware of the information.

Please note that Météo France and the American weather station based in Diego Garcia have gone even further than the BBC and are announcing – on top of more torrential rainfall – the formation of a cyclone that would concern us directly around next week.

Hereunder is the video link to the full BBC broadcast.

Best regards to all of you,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21996944

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Op zaterdag 6 april 2013 07:02 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Op deze kaart kan je Mauritius heel goed zien, er staan tien cirkeltjes omheen getekend....

[ afbeelding ]

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Op zondag 7 april 2013 10:48 schreef the_butler het volgende:
De modellen plaatsen het pad van de Cycloon steeds verder naar het oosten, dus met een beetje mazzel blijft het oog uit de buurt. Lokale bevolking lijkt zich nog niet erg bewust te zijn van wat er mischien komen gaat. Vrienden en kennissen hebben de houding dat afgelopen Cycloon over Reunion ook reuze meeviel en dat het deze keer ook wel wat winderig zal zijn, maar niett meer dan dat. Ik ben het daar toch niet helemaal mee eens.

Maar goed we zullen zien

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The Weather Channel has released its first 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, calling for another active season.

The forecast calls for a total of 16 named storms, 9 of which are expected to become hurricanes, including 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

These forecast numbers are above the long-term average from 1950-2012 (12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) and slightly above the averages for the current active era from 1995-2012 (15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes).

Three straight Atlantic hurricane seasons have had 19 storms. Only seven Atlantic seasons have had more hurricanes than last season's 10 hurricanes. Among the four U.S. landfalls were the most intense tropical cyclone to make a U.S. landfall prior to June 1 (Tropical Storm Beryl), a soaking Tropical Storm Debby, a painfully slow Hurricane Isaac, and one of the most destructive storms in U.S. history, Superstorm Sandy. (Sandy became a "post-tropical" system shortly before landfall.)

One particular meteorological field has long-range forecasters concerned about 2013.

"One of the side effects of the anomalous weather pattern during March was a sharp increase in sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist for Weather Services International (WSI), a part of The Weather Company.

"While it is still three months before hurricane season officially begins, this early warming of the tropical waters is an indication that an active season is in store, and our statistical forecast models confirm this hypothesis," said Crawford. "Our current forecast...may be a bit conservative if the warm tropical ocean temperatures persist heading into the season."

With that said, there may be another factor that may oppose the effect of warmer-than-average ocean temperatures.

"The one potential fly in the ointment is the possible emergence of an El Nino event this summer," said Crawford.

Stronger wind shear, a nemesis to tropical cyclone development, tends to appear in parts of the Atlantic Basin in a season in which El Nino has developed.

(MORE: What is El Nino? | Origination)

"At this point, climate and statistical model solutions suggest that this outcome (El Nino) is not particularly likely, however," said Crawford.

History Shows Be Prepared Every Season!

Key hurricane season prediction statements

"Through scientists at WSI, The Weather Channel has been producing hurricane seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean since 2006," says Dr. Peter Neilley, Vice President, Global Forecasting Services.

"The forecasts are based on state-of-the-science techniques and inputs such as patterns of ocean temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Weather Channel forecasts have proven quite accurate and generally predict the number of storms within two each year."

"However, it is important to note that our forecasts are for the total number of storms that may occur anywhere within the Atlantic Ocean, and do not attempt to predict the number of storms that will make landfall in the U.S.," says Neilley.

(WeatherREADY: Hurricane safety tips)

Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro (Facebook | Twitter) points out, "Some businesses such as those who are clients of Weather Services International (WSI) find value in hurricane season forecasts. The total number of storms is of interest to me because it matters for how busy I am during the season; for example, there wasn’t a U.S. hurricane landfall in either 2009 or 2010, but the former had 9 storms and the latter 19."
“These forecasts absolutely cannot accurately predict critical details such as where or how many landfalls will occur...”
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist

"Nevertheless, as I am on record many times as saying, and as is The Weather Channel’s philosophy, these forecasts absolutely cannot accurately predict critical details such as where or how many landfalls will occur and people in hurricane-prone areas should be equally prepared every year regardless of seasonal outlooks."

Ostro adds, "In 1983 there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia, a Category 3 which hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities there as Andrew did in South Florida."

The 1992 season included four hurricanes and one U.S. landfall, Category 5 Hurricane Andrew.

"While the saying might appear trite, Andrew and Alicia exemplify that truly all it takes is one."

On the opposite side of the spectrum from those two relatively inactive hurricane seasons that each had a single devastating landfall was the 2010 season.

That year we saw a total of 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. In all, there were 19 named storms, which tied 1995 for the third most on record during a season.

(MORE: 2010 season recap)

The 2010 hurricane season included 12 hurricanes but no U.S. landfalls.

Despite the large number of storms that year, not a single hurricane and only one tropical storm made landfall in the United States.

That said, some U.S. impacts did occur, including four cyclones bringing tropical storm conditions to some part of the country. However, most of the damage and, in many cases, casualties occurred in other countries.

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Op dinsdag 9 april 2013 19:28 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Inderdaad, we komen er goed mee weg, phew...

Dit wordt dan 18 jaar op rij dat er geen "direct hit" is geweest op Mauritius, het seizoen is nog niet af maar toch...

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Op woensdag 10 april 2013 13:21 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Nou, mischien toch wat spullen inslaan en wat foto's maken. Ik vrees dat de lokale minder bedeelde bevolking hier een probleem gaat krijgen, die wonen nog in golfplaten huisjes met een zeiltje erop.

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Op woensdag 10 april 2013 15:42 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Ze geven 72% kans voor een "major hurricane striking the US coast"... tegen gemiddeld 52%

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Op woensdag 10 april 2013 20:53 schreef the_butler het volgende:
ik wacht nogsteeds op de nieuwe modellen voor Imelda, komst ze nog verder westwaarts? De wind hier begint trouwens op te steken, best vreemd - het is windstil en dan vijf minuten later waait het flink, en een half uur later is het weer bijna wind stil.... appart

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36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.5S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

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Op zaterdag 20 april 2013 20:13 schreef Canopus het volgende:
Boeiend artikel over Sandy.

http://news.sciencemag.or(...)the-earth.html?rss=1

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Op maandag 8 april 2013 23:00 schreef aloa het volgende:
Het is wel weer opvallend rustig in de west pacific..