Bulls, Bears & Bucks #66 : Met stakende ambtenaren

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Op donderdag 14 januari 2010 20:52 schreef pberends het volgende:
Obama wil 'bankenbelasting'

Ja handig, gaan ze nog minder kredieten uitlenen. Wat wil de VS overheid nu?

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Op donderdag 14 januari 2010 20:52 schreef pberends het volgende:
Obama wil 'bankenbelasting'

Ja handig, gaan ze nog minder kredieten uitlenen. Wat wil de VS overheid nu?

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Paying for the Privilege
Wall Street still funds the Democrats who vilify it.

By Kevin Williamson

The new proposed tax on banks — 15 basis points on all liabilities — is not about revenue or responsibility: It’s about politics. President Obama is running away from Wall Street as fast as he can, but Wall Street has a funny way of catching up with him.

As I reported some months ago (“Losing Gordon Gekko,” subscription required), Wall Street is, contrary to stereotype, a strongly Democratic place: Goldman Sachs gave 73 percent of its 2006–08 political money to Democrats, who also took in a majority of the political contributions in that same cycle from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Lehman. Democrats took in the majority of the hedge-fund money and the lion’s share of political contributions from six of ten non-financial Big Business sectors: law, health care, defense contractors, communications/electronics, finance/insurance/real estate, and the catch-all category that includes chemical firms, retailers, manufacturers, food processors, and other industrial operators. E. J. Dionne, writing in The New Republic, argues that Obama fears being permanently tagged as a “Wall Street liberal” — which is what he is — and this, not recouping losses from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, is what the bank tax is all about.

But if the Democrats are gluttons for Wall Street money, Wall Street is a glutton for punishment: The president and his party in Congress are engaging in truly dishonest demagoguery — as National Review has noted, TARP losses aren’t coming from the banks, but from largely Democratic messes including AIG, the automakers’ bailouts, and Rep. Barney Frank’s beloved foreclosure-prevention program. But even as the Democrats demonize Wall Street and vilify Big Business in general, the pinstripes-and-obscene-bonuses set continues to write big checks to Obama’s party.

For the 2010 election cycle, Democrats have an enormous lead in almost every business sector they denounce: According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the hedge-fund industry has, so far, given 70 percent of its money for this cycle to Democrats. The numbers for other industries are comparable — insurance: 53 percent to Democrats; mortgage bankers and brokers: 55 percent to Democrats; finance and credit companies: 57 percent to Democrats; pharmaceuticals: 58 percent to Democrats; utilities companies: 59 percent to Democrats; automakers: 64 percent to Democrats; private-equity and investment firms: 74 percent to Democrats. And to top it off, the venture-capital industry has given 75 percent of its contributions to Democrats. There are very few sectors that outperform VC guys in their fealty to the Democratic party — except for usual suspects such as the teachers’ unions (92 percent to Democrats, and it’s a mystery who those Republicans are who took in the other 8 percent).

If you needed any more evidence that this is about politics and not about smart financial regulation, consider that Obama did not even consult his own FDIC chief, Sheila Bair, before announcing his bank-tax plan. Sheila Bair is not exactly a candidate for conservatives’ unalloyed admiration, but the FDIC is one of the few institutions that have performed well during the financial crisis, and her plan for establishing an FDIC-style resolution authority that would charge too-big-to-fail financial institutions an insurance premium in exchange for the government’s support of them in times of financial crisis is something that is endorsed both by many Democrats and, in principle, by the editors of National Review. But such a plan would not allow the president to preen on television and deliver homilies about fat cats and their wicked ways. Meanwhile, note that the president’s allegedly anti-fat-cat agenda is filtered through a bunch of Wall Street guys: Tim Geithner, Rahm Emanuel, etc.

The bank tax is not only a new and unneeded burden on our struggling financial sector, it’s also a long-term competitive disadvantage for American industry: Finance is a cutthroat world, and New York City is in a constant battle with London, Shanghai, and other financial centers for jobs and investment. If it inspires even a handful of firms to relocate, Obama’s new tax could end up costing the government money in the form of forgone revenue from personal-income taxes, corporate-income taxes, and capital-gains taxes. Wall Street’s loss will be the City of London’s gain. The real mystery is why Wall Street is still paying for the privilege of being scourged.

— Kevin Williamson is an NRO deputy managing editor.

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'Significant chance' of second financial crisis, warns World Economic Forum

There is now more than a one-in-five chance of another asset price bubble implosion costing the world more than £1 trillion, and similar odds of a full-scale sovereign fiscal crisis, a key report warned.

The report, which in previous years had been among the first to cite the prospect of a financial crisis, the oil crisis that preceded it and the ongoing food crisis, included a list of growing risks threatening leading economies. Among the most likely, and potentially most costly, is a sovereign debt crisis, as some countries struggle to afford the unprecedented costs of the crisis clean-up, the report said, specifically naming the UK and the US.

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Roubini: ik ben geen dr Doom, maar dr Realist: het ergste is voorbij
De meestal zo sombere Nouriel Roubini is nu optimistisch. Het ergste is volgens hem voorbij. We krijgen volgens hem geen 'double dip'.

V-herstel
In een interview met de Belgische krant De Tijd stelt Roubini dat hij de kans op een scherp V-herstel van de economie niet kleiner acht dan die op een nieuwe recessie.

Inzakkende groei
Roubini onderscheidt een duidelijk verschil tussen het eerste en het tweede halfjaar. Voor de eerste zes maanden verwacht hij een economische groei van 3%, dankzij overheidsimpulsen. In de tweede helft van het jaar zal de groei volgens Roubini terugzakken tot 1,5%, als gevolg van het terugdraaien van de vele stimuli.

1,5-2% groei
In de VS, Europa en Japan zal de groei echter lager liggen, denkt Roubini: 2% in de VS (in plaats van het potentieel van 3%) en 2% in Europa en Japan (in plaats van het potentieel van 2%).
De kans voor een groeivetraging schat Roubini op 60% in, de kans op een double dip taxeert hij op 20%, evenals de kans op een snel V-herstel.

Beurzen
Analoog aan de economische groei verwacht Roubini voor de beurzen een betere eerste jaarhelft dan een tweede halfjaar. Voor de eerste zes maanden voorziet Roubini stijgende koersen, maar daarna zullen beleggers volgens hem gaan twijfelen. Hij voorziet een behoorlijke verkoopgolf,maar geen crash. Per saldo zullen de koersen met circa 5% stijgen, denkt Roubini.

'Wel erg veel zuurstof'
De groeivertraging zal centrale bankiers er volgens Roubni toe brenge de rente langer dan gedacht laag te houden. Aan de ene kant zien beleggers graag ultralage rente, aldus Roubini, ''maar aan de andere kant zullen zij beseffen dat de economie wel erg veel zuurstof nodig heeft om te herstellen''.

'Nog geen zeepbellen'
Voor zeepbellen, normaal één van Roubini's favoriete onderwerpen, hoeven we nog niet bang te zijn. Roubini denkt dat hij misschien volgend jaar voor zeepbellen zal moeten waarschuwen, maar nu acht hij het nog wat te vroeg.''

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Op vrijdag 15 januari 2010 13:48 schreef Q. het volgende:
Roubini is dan ook een mongool. Ik hecht meer waarde aan Faber en Schiff.

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Op zaterdag 16 januari 2010 09:59 schreef pberends het volgende:
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http://www.rtl.nl/compone(...)s_hans.avi_plain.xml

17:30: Het wordt een pijnlijk proces van jaren: de banken moeten hun schulden terugbrengen.

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Op zaterdag 16 januari 2010 11:47 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

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of meer kapitaal aantrekkenken zijn daar aan de overkant

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Op zaterdag 16 januari 2010 12:27 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Waar moet dat kapitaal vandaan komen?

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Op zaterdag 16 januari 2010 12:27 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Waar moet dat kapitaal vandaan komen?

Ron Paul: Prepare for Revolutionary Changes in the Not-too-distant Future.

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“Could it all be a bad dream, or a nightmare? Is it my imagination, or have we lost our minds? It's surreal; it's just not believable. A grand absurdity; a great deception, a delusion of momentous proportions; based on preposterous notions; and on ideas whose time should never have come; simplicity grossly distorted and complicated; insanity passed off as logic; grandiose schemes built on falsehoods with the morality of Ponzi and Madoff; evil described as virtue; ignorance pawned off as wisdom; destruction and impoverishment in the name of humanitarianism; violence, the tool of change; preventive wars used as the road to peace; tolerance delivered by government guns; reactionary views in the guise of progress; an empire replacing the Republic; slavery sold as liberty; excellence and virtue traded for mediocracy; socialism to save capitalism; a government out of control, unrestrained by the Constitution, the rule of law, or morality; bickering over petty politics as we collapse into chaos; the philosophy that destroys us is not even defined.

The sad part of all this is that we have forgotten what made America great, good, and prosperous. We need to quickly refresh our memories and once again reinvigorate our love, understanding, and confidence in liberty. The status quo cannot be maintained, considering the current conditions. Violence and lost liberty will result without some revolutionary thinking.

We must escape from the madness of crowds now gathering. The good news is the reversal is achievable through peaceful and intellectual means and, fortunately, the number of those who care are growing exponentially.

Of course, it could all be a bad dream, a nightmare, and that I'm seriously mistaken, overreacting, and that my worries are unfounded. I hope so. But just in case, we ought to prepare ourselves for revolutionary changes in the not-too-distant future.”

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Op dinsdag 19 januari 2010 14:26 schreef pberends het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

"Nee hoor, zet je spaargeld maar veilig in IJsland!"

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Op dinsdag 26 januari 2010 15:31 schreef Bolkesteijn het volgende:

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Dat lokt het DGS natuurlijk ook uit. De risico's vallen weg, dat wil zeggen zij worden gedeeltelijk neergelegd bij mensen die er niks mee te maken hebben, en de rendementen in de vorm van een hogere rente blijven over.

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Op dinsdag 26 januari 2010 16:48 schreef Q. het volgende:

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De schuld wordt neergelegd bij bedrijven die het wel goed doen en al jaren verantwoorde en gezonde bedrijfsvoering hebben. Bijvoorbeeld de Rabobank.