Bulls, Bears & Bucks #56: Geithner's plan in werking

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'Wereldwijde voedsel- en energiecrisis in 2030'

Uitgegeven: 20 maart 2009 09:35
Laatst gewijzigd: 20 maart 2009 10:04

AMSTERDAM - De snelle groei van de wereldbevolking zal over 20 jaar leiden tot een wereldwijde crisis wegens tekorten aan voedsel, energie en water. Dat voorspelt de wetenschappelijke adviesraad van de Britse regering.

Volgens berekeningen van de Britse wetenschapsraad zullen er in 2030 meer dan 8,3 miljard mensen op aarde leven (1,5 miljard meer dan nu).

De vraag naar voedsel en energie zou daardoor stijgen met 50 procent. Het waterverbruik neemt door de bevolkingsgroei waarschijnlijk toe met 30 procent.

Milieuconferentie

De aanwezige grond- en brandstoffen op aarde zijn volgens hoofdwetenschapper John Beddington ontoereikend voor die situatie. Hij presenteerde de voorspelling op de milieuconferentie Sustainable Development UK 09 in Londen.

"Het wordt een noodlottige storm", zo verklaart Beddington op BBC News. "De wereld zal weliswaar niet totaal instorten, maar als we niets aan deze problemen doen, dan wordt het een erg zorgelijke situatie. Er zullen grote internationale voedsel- en watertekorten ontstaan. "

Niet afwachten

De huidige lage prijzen voor olie en voedsel zorgen volgens Beddington voor onderschatting van het probleem. "Dat de prijzen nu zijn gedaald, betekent niet dat we rustig kunnen afwachten."

Volgens de wetenschapper kan een wereldcrisis in 2030 mogelijk worden voorkomen door nieuwe technologieën. Zo gaat in de landbouwsector op dit moment gemiddeld 20 tot 30 procent van de oogst verloren door ziektes en dierenplagen.

Betere oogsttechnieken

"We hebben meer resistente planten nodig en betere oogsttechnieken", aldus Beddington. "Genetische modificatie kan een deel van de oplossing vormen. Met genetische technologie zouden we mogelijk plantsoorten kunnen kweken die resistent zijn tegen droogte."

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Robert Zoellick, the World Bank's president, emphasised the need to give multilateral bodies new powers, rather than just extra financing. In a speech in London yesterday Zoellick said: "If leaders are serious about creating new global responsibilities or governance, let them start by modernising multilateralism to empower the WTO, the IMF, and the World Bank Group to monitor national policies.

"Bringing sunlight to national decision-making would contribute to transparency, accountability and consistency across national policies.

"As a first step, the G20 should endorse a WTO monitoring system to advance trade and resist economic isolationism, while working to complete the Doha negotiations to open markets, cut subsidies, and resist backsliding."

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Op zondag 5 april 2009 10:54 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

http://www.guardian.co.uk(...)rown-china-recession

Zoellick, Bilderberglid, betrokken geweest bij Goldman Sachs, Fannie Mae, Enron, en een van de bedenkers van de inval in Irak.

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Op zaterdag 4 april 2009 17:33 schreef pberends het volgende:
Oud bericht:
[..]

http://www.nu.nl/algemeen(...)ecrisis-in-2030.html

Jim Rogers .

ADAMS APPEL 2007.04 Productie voedsel moet veel duurzamer

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Op zondag 5 april 2009 11:26 schreef pberends het volgende:
Wereldbank: tijd voor Wereldoverheid

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De Wereldbank-president is in Amerika een omstreden figuur. Zoellick werkte voor zijn functie bij de Wereldbank voor hypotheekgigant Fannie Mae, de zakenbank Goldman Sachs en zat daarna in de regering van George W. Bush voor handel en buitenlandse zaken. Al in 1998 schreef hij namens de neoconvervatieve denktank Project for the New American Century (PNAC) een brief aan president Bill Clinton om Irak binnen te vallen.

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Op zondag 5 april 2009 11:54 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

Ik vind dit niet voor hem pleiten
president Wereldbank Zoelick
[ afbeelding ]
Ik denk dat hij zijn benoeming te danken heeft aan George dobbeljoe, hij zal wel gauw de baan verliezen
[..]


Dat plan schreef hij dus 3 jaar VOOR 9/11
9 / 11 kwam dus wel heel erg toevallig, of was 9/ 11 opgezet daarvoor??

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Op zondag 5 april 2009 11:21 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

we moeten anders gaan eten

Als water schaarser wordt, dan zal water een grotere aandeel hebben in de kostprijs van voedsel

dus gaan we voedsel gebruiken dat minder energie en minder water nodig heeft.
dus moeten de chinezen aardappels gaan eten

ADAMS APPEL 2007.04 Productie voedsel moet veel duurzamer

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Op maandag 6 april 2009 13:44 schreef pberends het volgende:
Ik ben ook anti-vlees ivm het milieu en energie, van mij mogen ze er accijns op heffen.

Ik eet overigens wel elke dag een hamburger á 40 eurocent.

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Q: Okay, Marc, I think this would wrap it up, but I'd like to ask you one question. If you had to leave one message with our readers to take away from all this, what would that be? What would be the big takeaway for them?

MF: We live now in an environment of very, very high volatility, because on the one hand you have the private sector that has tightened lending conditions, and wealth has been destroyed, and households will save more and be more prudent financially than they've been; in other words, credit or liquidity is tightening.

Then on the other hand you have these clowns in government that think that they can solve any problem. As Mr. Geithner said recently, "we know how to fix the problems." Well if he knew so well how to fix the problems, why did he let the problems happen in the first place? He was the New York Fed Chairman when the conditions were created! And Mr. Bernanke was the Fed Chairman since, I think, 2005, and he was the architect of this ultra-expansionary monetary policy. They have no credibility at all, and in my opinion they're going to make matters worse. And the worse the economic conditions will become, the more Mr. Bernanke will throw money at the system; and that will lead to huge volatility in the market. You can have rebounds in individual stocks, and in whole markets, of 30 percent in one month, then they can drop 20 percent in a month; don't forget, between November and the end of the December, the 30-year Treasury ran at 20 percent; and from its peak at the end of December it dropped 20 percent.

There is huge volatility and the same will happen in equities. And that's why I think it's very difficult to make long-term predictions. When you have a perfect free-market, it's difficult to predict the future. But when you have a market that is disturbed by government manipulations and money-printing, it's impossible to make any predictions.

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Op maandag 6 april 2009 16:10 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:
nog meer windowdressing: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30068415

nee, we hebben ze echt moeten meeslepen om deze triljoenensubsidie in ontvangst te nemen

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Op maandag 6 april 2009 16:49 schreef simmu het volgende:

[..]

*giggles*

tsjek deze link op die pagina dan!

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UPDATE: Bank Losses To Exceed Great Depression -Calyon's Mayo
APRIL 6, 2009, 10:55 A.M. ET

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Recent actions by the U.S. government to support the banking sector won't stop loan loss levels from exceeding those reached during the Great Depression, banking analyst Mike Mayo of Calyon Securities said Monday.

Mayo, a long-time bear on the banking sector who recently left Deustche Bank, started Calyon's coverage of the U.S. banking sector with an "underweight" rating, indicating investors should minimize exposure in their portfolio.

Though the comments in Monday's report largely reiterate those made in a report Mayo released March 11 while still at Deutsche Bank, they underscore the lingering concerns among investors about the prospects for stabilization in the financial sector. Shares of banks have gained in recent weeks owing to the government intervention, hopes for improved earnings reports and thawing in credit markets, but uncertainty about the health of banks remains high.

Shares of banking sector stocks were leading the decliners in the S&P 500 index Monday morning. Shares of all 11 banks Mayo mentioned in his report were down by more than 3% each in early trading.

Mayo put "underweight" ratings on Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C) , JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Comerica Inc. (CMA), PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC). He assigned more- bearish "sell" ratings on BB&T Corp. (BBT), SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and KeyCorp (KEY).

In recent trading, SunTrust shares were posting the biggest declines among those mentioned in the report, down 8.9% at $12.60. Bank of America shares were down 2.2% at $7.43, after falling as low as $7.14 earlier. Citigroup was down 3.5% at $2.75.

Mayo said loan losses for U.S. banks will likely increase to 3.5% from 2% by the end of 2010, due to ongoing problems in mortgage loans and increasing deterioration in credit cards and consumer, construction, commercial real estate and industrial loans. Under a stress scenario, loan losses could reach as high as 5.5%, Mayo said, compared with the 3.4% loss rate reached in 1934.

Loans Not Marked Down Enough

Mayo titled his report "Seven Deadly Sins of Banking," and listed them as "greedy loan growth, a gluttony of real estate, lust for high yields, sloth-like risk management, pride of low capital, envy of exotic fees, and anger of regulators."

He said that the government won't be able to quickly resolve problem loans, which he said had only been marked by the banks that hold them to 98 cents on the dollar.

Furthermore, government efforts to support banks are a "Catch-22," he said, since being leinent with banks that have made mistakes will leave toxic assets on their balance sheets, while being tough on banks after the government stress tests are released in late April would force many of them to raise more dilutive equity capital, which would then hurt banking and lending activity.

"Thus, the industry may transition from the financial crisis (late stages of capital market write-downs) only to have more severe consequences of the economic crisis (loan losses)," Mayo wrote.

The report was Mayo's first since leaving the research department of Deutsche Bank AG (DB) for Calyon Securities USA Inc., an affiliate of the Asia Pacific-area research firm CLSA.

Also Monday, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets told clients in a research report that last month's rally in bank shares was unsustainable. Bank shares in the S&P 500 have rallied about 50% since the second week in March, when positive comments about profitability during January and February by Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit and other bank CEOs set off a rally that was extended by further government actions to support banks.

Like Mayo, BMO Capital analyst Peter Winter said he was concerned by increasing deterioration in commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans. Banks' capital reserves are inadequate given the rapid acceleration in problem assets and delinquent payments, he said.

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Soros prees overheden wereldwijd. Volgens hem zetten beleidsmakers de juiste stappen om structurele problemen in het financiële systeem en de economie te verhelpen: "Het systeem was fundamenteel zwak en we kunnen niet terug naar waar we vandaan komen."

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Op maandag 6 april 2009 20:21 schreef pberends het volgende:
ABN of welke broker dan ook mag iemand niet rood laten staan. Je mag iemand hoogstens rood laten staan op het moment dat iemand aandelen heeft (overwaarde). Vreemd verhaal dat iemand technisch gezien dan kon al kon beleggen.