Olietopic #10 - Prijs per vat rond de 75 dollar

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Corrosion engineers are not always popular in the oil and gas industry as they are usually requesting money for additional maintenance, or to take something offline for inspection or have something else shut down if it has really deteriorated. But ageing infrastructure (as well as an ageing workforce) is one important aspect of the peak oil problem.

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Minister Van der Hoeven (EZ) is warm gelopen voor elektrische auto’s in haar energiebeleid. Ze sprak over een bijeenkomst dat er over tien jaar honderdduizenden elektrische auto’s in Nederland rondrijden.

De eerste concrete stap komt tot nu toe echter van Camiel Eurlings van V&W die een kleine 10 miljoen heeft vrijgemaakt voor een proefproject. Concrete stappen die de overheid zet om de introductie te versnellen zijn nog niet bekend. [..]

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Five years ago, when I first got involved with peak oil, electric and hybrid trucks weren't even a concept. A little over a year ago, when I first posted on the subject they still seemed fairly exotic. Now, in 2009, an amazing amount of progress has taken place, and the technology for both EV and HEV (hybrid EV) trucks is rapidly filtering into the mainstream. It's becoming increasingly clear that peak oil will have little impact on tasks such as local trucking, garbage collection, and grid maintenance. Peak oil is simply occurring too slow compared to the rate of truck innovation and dissemination.
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Op maandag 23 maart 2009 16:44 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

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Er zit dik in dat we op een soort van elektrisch iets gaan rijden. Hoe, wat en waar we die elektriciteit vandaan halen blijtt vraag 2.

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April 8 (Bloomberg) -- The credit crunch will keep U.S. oil and gas producers from ramping up exploration they do through drillers such as Nabors Industries Ltd., setting the stage for shortages and surging prices when demand recovers.
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“Quite frankly, they don’t have the credit, which exacerbates the problem that their revenue stream is far below the cost structure,” said Jud Bailey, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in Houston. “They’re not jumping on lower service costs simply because they can’t. They’re literally stepping away from anything they’re not contractually obligated to.”
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Even as service costs come down, making more projects look profitable on paper, some producers are too starved for cash or credit to ramp up drilling, said Wicklund of Carlson Capital.

“This is like all of a sudden, the price of Porsches has come down, but you lost your job,” Wicklund said. “It’s like, ‘Oh, well that’s great that service or Porsche costs have come down, but I still can’t afford it.’”

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Total nuclear generation reached a new high of 808.97 million megawatt hours, a slight increase over the 806.49 million megawatt hours generated in 2007 according to preliminary Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

Nuclear power accounted for 19.7 percent of U.S. electricity generation in 2008, up from 19.4 percent in 2007.

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Abstract
A model capable of projecting mineral resources production has been developed. The model includes supply and demand interactions, and has been applied to all coal producing countries. A model of worldwide coal production has been developed for 3 scenarios. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) estimates used in the scenarios ranged from 700 Gt to 1243 Gt. The model indicates that worldwide coal production will peak between 2010 and 2048 on a mass basis and between 2011 and 2047 on an energy basis. The Best Guess scenario, assumed a URR of 1144 Gt and peaks in 2034 on a mass basis, and in 2026 on an energy basis.

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Global oil supply fell by 400 kb/d in March, to 83.4 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply fell by 170 kb/d, with a 220 kb/d dip in the OECD partly offset by higher non-OECD output. 2009 non-OPEC output is revised down by 320 kb/d, largely due to lower biofuels output, and weaker 1Q09 crude production in Asia. Non-OPEC output now falls from 50.6 mb/d in 2008 to 50.3 mb/d in 2009.

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Never trust any number at face value
Studying historical numbers in general would seem to be a relatively straightforward exercise. One looks at numbers, in case of this newsletter those involving oil production, consumption, and stocks, and estimate past changes to get a feeling of what is going on in the oil market. However, historical numbers may not be as straightforward as they may seem. Especially when there are only a few institutes such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) that publish these numbers, and more importantly, these institutes can influence the oil market on the very short term, and perhaps even influence political decisions due to their publications.

To become more concrete, I believe there is a significant upward bias in the latest month for world production in every Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency. Because in the consecutive publication by the IEA production estimates for several countries are nearly constantly revised downwards. The most prominent example being China, for which each IEA estimate since July 2008 for the latest month next to the historical production is shown in the chart below. From July 2008 to March 2009 the upward bias has on average been 130,000 b/d. The consistency of occurrence of this upward estimate can only be due to two reasons, either political intervention in data publication, or the usage of an incorrect model in estimating the latest production value.
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Further inconsistencies by the IEA can be found in several other countries, although their occurrence is not that regular as in the case of China. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) numbers do not fare much better than those of the IEA. Many countries see their production numbers reported as similar to those of the previous month. Primary examples here are Venezuela, Iran and Sudan, where for long periods of time month after month the same production values have been reported.

Does this mean that production figures as reported by sources such as the IEA and EIA cannot be relied upon? My answer would be no. We do need to have a critical mindset however, in assuming that no number can be trusted directly at face value.

Rembrandt Koppelaar

President ASPO Netherlands

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Op vrijdag 17 april 2009 08:08 schreef Perrin het volgende:
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Although neither correlation nor causation between expenditures and recessions are tested explicitly in these figures, the implication is certainly present. Every major and minor recession in the past 38 years was proceeded by a rapid increase in prices and expenditures on petroleum. This does not mean that recessions are caused, or caused solely by increasing oil prices or expenditures on petroleum, rather that it is a common pre-condition for recessions.

Often there are exogenous and/or endogenous factors that seem to exacerbate the economic climate during times of high petroleum prices and expenditures, which taken together, can cause a recession. The major recessions of the 70’s and early 80’s were driven clearly by exogenous supply perturbations, while the recession of the early 2000’s (dot-com bubble) and the current recession (housing bubble) were driven by endogenous financial problems. Nonetheless, the common factor to all of these recessions was a rapid and large increase in expenditures on petroleum.