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quote:U.S. has plundered world wealth with dollar: China paper
BEIJING (Reuters) - The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said.
The People's Daily is the official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party. The Chinese-language overseas edition is a small circulation offshoot of the main paper.
Its pronouncements do not necessarily directly voice leadership views. But the commentary, as well as recent comments, amount to a growing chorus of Chinese disdain for Washington's economic policies and global financial dominance in the wake of the credit crisis.
"The grim reality has led people, amidst the panic, to realize that the United States has used the U.S. dollar's hegemony to plunder the world's wealth," said the commentator, Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai's Tongji University.
Shi, who has before been strident in his criticism of the U.S., said other countries had lost vast amounts of wealth because of the financial crisis, while Washington's sole concern had been protecting its own interests.
"The U.S. dollar is losing people's confidence. The world, acting democratically and lawfully through a global financial organization, urgently needs to change the international monetary system based on U.S. global economic leadership and U.S. dollar dominance," he wrote.
Shi suggested that all trade between Europe and Asia should be settled in euros, pounds, yen and yuan, though he did not explain how the Chinese currency could play such a role since it is not convertible on the capital account.
A two-day Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) of 27 EU member states and 16 Asian countries was set to open on Friday. Though few analysts expect much in the way of concrete agreements, Shi said it could prove momentous.
"How can Europe and Asia grasp each other's hands and together confront the once-in-a-century global financial crisis sparked by the U.S.; how can they construct a new equitable and safe international financial order?" he said.
"The world is waiting for this Asian-European meeting to achieve big results in financial cooperation."
China lijkt me de volgende dijkdoorbraak eentje die vernietigend kan zijn voor de dollar.quote:
Another round of bloodletting
But what if they’re no longer benefiting from this trade flow and are forced to reverse it. What if they lose so much money on the dollar assets they’re holding that they decide to stop holding them? In the case of China, for instance, Brad quotes the following:
“Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research estimates that China makes 1-2 per cent on its (largely) dollar reserves. It then loses up to 10 per cent on the exchange rate and suffers a Chinese inflation rate of 6 per cent for a total real return in renminbi of about minus 15 per cent. That is a loss of $270bn a year, or a stunning 7-8 per cent of gross domestic product.”
Ik zie de laatste weken meer (semi-officiele) berichten opdoemen dat China e.e.a. niet meer pikt, en de frequentie neemt toe.
Eentje uit een wat oudere doos (1 mnd terug)
China is een zeer belangrijke dominosteen ... eentje die het systeem bijna 180 graden kan draaien.quote:Is China quietly dumping US Treasuries?
A sharp drop in foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last five weeks has raised concerns that China is quietly withdrawing its funds from the United States, leaving the dollar increasingly vulnerable.
* China threatens `nuclear option' of dollar sales
Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have cut their stash of US Treasuries by $48bn since late July, with falls of $32bn in the last two weeks alone.
"This comes as a big surprise and it is definitely worrying," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
"We won't know if China is behind this until the Treasury releases its TIC data in November, but what it does show is that world central banks are in a hurry to get out of the US. They don't seem to be switching into other currencies, so it is possible they are moving into gold instead. Gold is now gaining momentum across all currencies and has broken through resistance at 500 euros," he said.
While the greenback has been resilient over recent weeks - even regaining something of a 'safe-haven' role as banks scrambled to buy the currency to cover dollar debts - most experts believe that America's $850bn current account deficit will eventually cause the dollar to resume its relentless slide.
David Powell, an economist at IDEAglobal in New York, pointed the finger at Beijing as the main suspect in the sudden bond flight this summer.
In a client note entitled "Has China started to dump US Treasuries?", he said the sales appear to coincide with early moves by Beijing to launch its new $300bn sovereign wealth fund.
The scheme is part of the government's plan to diversify it $1,340bn reserves from bonds (mostly in the US) to a broader portfolio of investments and a better yield.
If so, the switch comes at a very delicate time, just as tempers flair on both sides of the Pacific over China's policy of holding down yuan by currency intervention. A bill in Congress calls for punitive tariff sanctions of 27.5pc against Chinese imports, and there has been a growing outcry over contaminated pet food and lead-tainted toys.
Two top advisers to the Chinese government gave strong hints in August that Beijing should use its estimated $900bn holdings of US Treasuries and agency bonds as a "bargaining chip", words taken as an implicit threat to trigger as US bond crash if provoked.
The Chinese government has since put out an official statement clarifying that it has no intention in taking such an irresponsible step, which would in any case backfire by devaluing China's remaining holding.
Mr Powell said the switch out of Treasuires was a purely commercial decision. "If if turns out that the Chinese are behind this, it is merely an attempt to increase returns on investment. It has nothing to do with settling protectionist scores," he said.
Any evidence that China was pulling out would risk setting off an unstoppable stampede, which is why such a policy would never be announced. It holds the world's biggest pool of resrves, followed by Japan.
Robin Bhar, a metals analyst at UBS, said there was little evidence yet that Asian central banks were switching heavily into gold. Most of the recent buying of gold has been on the COMEX futures markets, the playground of hedge funds.
Central banks tend to buy their bullion in London at the AM and PM fixings, leaving a footprint that is visible to experts. They seem to have been largely absent from the market so far.
Niks deflatie.... hyper inflatie.
quote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 04:25 schreef Louisa.Leka het volgende:
(Ik las 'China the blowjob'.)
Ja de dollar en vooral de waardepapieren genoteerd in dollars zijn niet alleen in waarde, maar ook in aanzien fors gedaald
[ Bericht 43% gewijzigd door henkway op 26-10-2008 06:15:40 ]
[ Bericht 43% gewijzigd door henkway op 26-10-2008 06:15:40 ]
Zoiets zouden de amerikanen zien als een directe oorlogsdreiging.
Dit account is permanent uitgeschakeld.
Als China slim is doen ze niet moeilijk maar kopen gewoon Wallstreet op. + de AEX. Daar hebben ze toch veel meer aan!
The End Times are wild
Wat zou dat met de koersen doen?quote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 07:54 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Als China slim is doen ze niet moeilijk maar kopen gewoon Wallstreet op. + de AEX. Daar hebben ze toch veel meer aan!
Never in the entire history of calming down did anyone ever calm down after being told to calm down.
Had china ook niet gewoon eerder de vaste wisselkoers met de dollar moeten loslaten. Het voordeel was geweest dat men dan misschien niet met zo'n stapel dollars opgescheept had gezeten. Een nadeel was misschien geweest dat hun economische groei door goedkope rotzooi naar het westen te exporteren misschien wat minder geweest zou zijn.
Hehe, wordt China eindelijk wakker? Natuurlijk dumpen ze die dollars. Vraag is idd of ze misschien niet gewoon een groot deel van de VS beter kunnen opkopen. Maar goed, wellicht zijn ze de wereld grotendeels voor en dumpen ze als eerste en houden het verlies voor zichzelf enigzins beperkt.
Waarom zouden zie die dollars dumpen?
Ze hebben zoveel, dat wanneer ze de helft dumpen, de andere helft niets meer waard is.
Bovendien staan ze dan op vijandige voet met de Verenigde Staten, die tot op heden in Azïe voor betrekkekelijke regionale stabiliteit zorgde.
Als laatst is de VS de grootste export partner van China, het dumpen van dollars zal zeker als een aanval beschouwd worden wat de export niet ten goede zal komen.
Ze hebben zoveel, dat wanneer ze de helft dumpen, de andere helft niets meer waard is.
Bovendien staan ze dan op vijandige voet met de Verenigde Staten, die tot op heden in Azïe voor betrekkekelijke regionale stabiliteit zorgde.
Als laatst is de VS de grootste export partner van China, het dumpen van dollars zal zeker als een aanval beschouwd worden wat de export niet ten goede zal komen.
'La operación fue, perfecta' Betancourt
Het kan natuurlijk ongunstig voor een Chinees lijken dat hij moet werken en dat de Amerikanen vervolgens zijn producten consumeren, zonder dat daar al te veel voor betaald wordt.
Maar in zijn geheel heeft China in 20 jaar tijd een enorme industrie en economie opgebouwd die bijna de helft van alle industriele productie ter wereld verzorgt en zijn de Amerikanen veel van hun industrie verloren en hebben een enorme schuld.
Al zouden alle dollars die de Amerikanen tot zover aan China betaald hebben tot oud papier verklaard worden, dan nog staat al die industrie daar en zijn de mensen opgeleid en georganiseerd. Dat blijft!
Los van dat: al die dollars dumpen is in niemands voordeel. China moet gaan kopen en investeren
Maar in zijn geheel heeft China in 20 jaar tijd een enorme industrie en economie opgebouwd die bijna de helft van alle industriele productie ter wereld verzorgt en zijn de Amerikanen veel van hun industrie verloren en hebben een enorme schuld.
Al zouden alle dollars die de Amerikanen tot zover aan China betaald hebben tot oud papier verklaard worden, dan nog staat al die industrie daar en zijn de mensen opgeleid en georganiseerd. Dat blijft!
Los van dat: al die dollars dumpen is in niemands voordeel. China moet gaan kopen en investeren
The End Times are wild
misschien zijn ze daar allang mee bezig, japan bezat in 1980 ook veel gebouwen en bedrijven in de USquote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 07:54 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Als China slim is doen ze niet moeilijk maar kopen gewoon Wallstreet op. + de AEX. Daar hebben ze toch veel meer aan!
Heb het eerste artilel gelezen, op zich wel bekend maar toch de moeite waard van het lezen
Je kan je afvragen op wie je boos moet zijn: op de USA omdat ze slim gebruik maken van hun dollar. Of de sukkels die slaafs achter die dollar aan blijven lopen. Geef de amerikanen eens ongelijk.
dit wist ik niet en verbaasd me dan ook.quote:though he did not explain how the Chinese currency could play such a role since it is not convertible on the capital account.
Je kan je afvragen op wie je boos moet zijn: op de USA omdat ze slim gebruik maken van hun dollar. Of de sukkels die slaafs achter die dollar aan blijven lopen. Geef de amerikanen eens ongelijk.
Nu de dollar weer relatief hoog staat is het voor centrale banken erg aantrekkelijk om dollars te dumpen...
President Camacho
TV series: Boardwalk Empire | Burn Notice | Dexter | Game of Thrones | Impractical Jokers | Luther | Sherlock | Sons of Anarchy
TV series: Boardwalk Empire | Burn Notice | Dexter | Game of Thrones | Impractical Jokers | Luther | Sherlock | Sons of Anarchy
daar heb je een sterk puntquote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 17:07 schreef pberends het volgende:
Nu de dollar weer relatief hoog staat is het voor centrale banken erg aantrekkelijk om dollars te dumpen...
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Vergeet je gewoon niet dat de federal reserve de reden is dat de hele economie naar de klote gaat. Daarnaast helpt het ook niet echt dat de hele wereld aan fractional reserve banking doet zonder enige vorm van een goud of zilvers standaard. Geld is alleen waard wat je het waard vind, het is toch maar papier.
Als Amerika valt vallen wij net zo hard meequote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 14:31 schreef Bananenman het volgende:
Please China, dump die dollars. Zo snel mogelijk
.
Op maandag 30 november 2009 19:30 schreef Ian_Nick het volgende:
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Hoax. Dumpen die zooi, in ieder geval genoeg om rond het niveautje ¤1 = $1,60 te komen!quote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 19:57 schreef PietjePuk007 het volgende:
[..]
Als Amerika valt vallen wij net zo hard mee
en goud is maar goud. Niets anders dan papiergeld eigenlijk.quote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 19:22 schreef irencus het volgende:
Vergeet je gewoon niet dat de federal reserve de reden is dat de hele economie naar de klote gaat. Daarnaast helpt het ook niet echt dat de hele wereld aan fractional reserve banking doet zonder enige vorm van een goud of zilvers standaard. Geld is alleen waard wat je het waard vind, het is toch maar papier.
Ja heerlijk, dan is China zijn grootste afzetmarkt kwijt en zijn een paar honderd chinks werkloos en ontdekken dat als ze terug komen in hun dorpjes uit de stad dat hun land is ingenomen door de partij, eindelijk sociale onrust op een schaal welke China in chaos stortquote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 14:31 schreef Bananenman het volgende:
Please China, dump die dollars. Zo snel mogelijk
quote:Li Yuan heeft geen baan meer
Een menigte werklozen in de stad Dongguan, in de Zuidoostelijke provincie Guangdong, voor het gebouw van de lokale overheid, nadat in oktober een speelgoedfabriek had moeten sluiten en 7.000 man op straat kwamen te staan.
Duizenden migranten in China hebben opeens geen werk meer. Genadeloos raakt de westerse crisis ook de Parelrivierdelta.
Door onze correspondent Oscar Garschagen
Dongguan, 7 nov. Li Yuan (37), migrantenarbeidster met het figuur van een meisje en het gegroefde, verweerde gezicht van een omaatje, weet niets van Amerika, Europa of de kredietcrisis en kent maar een paar Engelse woorden: „Merry Christmas.”
De kerstperiode, die in speelgoedfabrieken als Smart Union in de Zuidoost-Chinese stad Dongguan in juli begint, was voor haar synoniem aan nóg langere dagen achter de verpakkingsmachine, zeer welkome overuren overigens, want zij kon haar basisloon van 75 euro per maand gegarandeerd verdubbelen.
Maar opeens, zonder enige waarschuwing, zijn zij, haar vriendin Wang Yuan en de 6.500 andere arbeiders hun werk bij Smart Union kwijt. Net als de duizenden andere migrantenarbeiders bij de ruim drieduizenden speelgoedfabrieken in de speelgoed-, textiel-, en elektronicastad die gesloten zijn.
De ene dag, 14 oktober, ging zij zoals altijd tegen middernacht „lei si le”, doodop, naar bed; de volgende ochtend, om zeven uur, mocht zij alleen nog door het blauwe toegangshek om een ontslagbriefje op te halen.
„De fabriek kreeg opeens geen geld meer van de banken en er zijn geen orders meer uit Amerika en Europa, maar dat snap ik niet, want er waren wel orders en we waren nog lang niet klaar met een bestelling uit Amerika”, vertelt zij in haar huisje in Zhangmutou, een dorpachtige enclave in Dongguan.
De buurt, met tot huisjes omgebouwde varkensstallen, ligt vlakbij de fabriek en opslaghallen voor goederen en materialen. Stapels kartonnen dozen, vertrapt speelgoed en plakkaten met waarschuwingen om niet te demonstreren verraden de haastige, tumultueuze sluiting die gepaard ging met demonstraties en botsingen met de politie. De slaapbunkers van de fabriek zijn verlaten. De lege wasrekken en keukens met gebroken ramen maken duidelijk dat velen ook hun onderkomen meteen moesten verlaten.
Neergang
Groene uniformen aan de drooglijnen vertellen dat de enige bewoners van het spookcomplex de bewakers zijn. De gesloten fabriek vertelt ook dat de economische neergang in het Westen China harder blijkt te treffen dan eerder werd aangenomen.
Dankzij de scherpe controles op het kapitaalverkeer zijn de Chinese banken grotendeels ontsnapt aan de kredietcrisis, maar de exportsector, goed voor ruim 40 procent van het bbp, steunt en kreunt. De lijnen in de grafieken van overheid en denktanks wijzen naar beneden, analisten stellen hun prognoses bij en het begint nu ook door te dringen tot de bevolking: de economische groei met dubbele cijfers is voorbij.
Zakenbank Credit Suisse in Hongkong voorspelt dat de Chinese groei in het laatste kwartaal van dit jaar zelfs daalt naar 5,8 procent en dat in 2009 de eerste kwartalen de groei op ongeveer 6 procent uitkomt, bijna een halvering vergeleken met de cijfers van 2007 en begin 2008.
Als de groei onder de 8 procent zakt, stellen Chinese economen, is China niet meer in staat genoeg banen te creëren voor de tientallen miljoenen die jaarlijks het platteland voor de industriegebieden aan de oostkust verruilen en de vijf miljoen studenten die jaarlijks de universiteiten en hogescholen verlaten. Niet voor niets heeft de Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, al gezegd dat de afzwakking van de groei „de sociale stabiliteit” in China kan bedreigen.
In Dongguan, waar onder andere 30 procent van het speelgoed in de wereld wordt gemaakt – naast 35 procent van de schoenen en bijna 50 procent van de magnetrons – zijn volgens het stadsbestuur 3.631 speelgoedfabrieken gesloten, de helft van het totale aantal speelgoedfabrieken. Tel daar de gesneefde textiel-, schoenen-, en meubelfabrieken of -fabriekjes bij op en het totale aantal gesloten bedrijven overtreft volgens het dagblad Nanfang Duoshao de 30.000.
Dit is een officieuze schatting van de krant, gebaseerd op de statistieken van de verschillende bedrijfsassociaties, die melden dat tot en met oktober de orders aan speelgoed, textiel, meubels en elektronica minstens met 35 en in sommige sectoren met 40 procent zijn gedaald. Volgens de grootste krant in de Parelrivierdelta zijn er dit jaar alleen al van de 58.000 in Hongkong geregistreerde en in China gevestigde particuliere ondernemingen door de krediet- en beurscrisis (en mismanagement) 15.000 gesloten.
Werkloosheid
Afgezet tegen het totaal aantal fabrieken (700.000) in de monding van de Parelrivierdelta lijkt dat aantal overzichtelijk en moeten Li Yuan en Wang Yuan snel ander werk kunnen vinden. Volgens vandaag gepubliceerde officiële cijfers bedraagt de werkloosheid in China slechts 8 miljoen mensen, maar daarbij worden pas afgestudeerden en werkzoekende migrantenwerkers niet meegerekend.
Maar zo kijken de twee vrouwen er niet tegen aan. „Ik ben hier al vijftien jaar en ik heb altijd heel makkelijk werk kunnen vinden, maar voor het eerst kan niemand ons gebruiken. Wij krijgen overal te horen dat we te oud zijn en dat we geen scholing hebben”, vertelt Li Yuan (37), die niet weet wat het opschrift op haar lila T-shirt –You will never kiss him – betekent.
Toen de Hongkongse directie van Smart Union ’m stiekem smeerde – geen uitzonderlijke praktijk overigens – heeft de stad Dongguan ter voorkoming van een sociale opstand alle, ook achterstallige, lonen betaald. Maar, zegt vriendin en dorpsgenoot Wang Yuan, „we hebben geen verzekering en geen pensioen” . De stad betaalde bovendien alleen de basislonen uit, de inkomsten uit overuren moet iedereen missen.
De sluiting van Smart Union is extra zuur omdat mismanagement een grote rol heeft gespeeld. Het Hongkongse bedrijf kreeg niet alleen geen kredieten meer omdat de vooruitzichten somber zijn, maar het had zich ook vertild aan roekeloze investeringen in zilvermijnen in de provincie Fuijin. Winsten uit de speelgoedfabriek werden geïnvesteerd in de exploitatie van een zilvermijn die inmiddels is gesloten na een zwaar ongeluk en een overstroming.
Li Yuan schudt driftig ‘nee’ als haar gevraagd wordt of zij na al die jaren in ‘de machinefabriek van de wereld’ terugkeert naar haar dorp in Sichuan, naar haar bejaarde ouders, die haar kind opvoeden. Het lapje grond van de familie is te klein om allemaal van te leven, legt zij uit, terwijl zij in een wok groente en vis bakt. Haar donkere kamer met open wc is zwart en vet van de baklucht. Vriendin Wang Yuan verkeert in dezelfde situatie: de beide vrouwen zijn al jaren de enige kostwinners van hun families in Sichuan en die kunnen niet zonder de inkomsten.
Arbeidsbeurs
Zheng Qiang is de directeur van het Sichuankantoor in Guangzhou en doet normaal de wining and dining met buitenlandse investeerders, geen arbeidsbemiddeling en sociale onrust. Om te voorkomen dat tienduizenden werkloze migrantenarbeiders opeens terugkeren naar hun dorpen, waar geen werk is, heeft de provincie Sichuan hem opgedragen alles in het werk te stellen om de ontslagen arbeiders van Smart Union en andere gesloten speelgoedfabrieken weer aan het werk te krijgen. Hij organiseert daarom een speciale arbeidsbeurs.
In de Parelrivierdelta werken 5 miljoen migrantenwerkers uit Sichuan, en het provinciebestuur is geschrokken van de prognoses dat in 2009 miljoenen migrantenarbeiders geen andere keus hebben dan terug te keren naar hun dorpen. Die vrees leeft niet alleen in Sichuan. Alleen al de stadsprovincie Chongqing (31 miljoen inwoners) houdt rekening met de terugkeer van 3 miljoen arbeiders die overbodig dreigen te worden in de Parelrivierdelta. Er dreigt een ongewenste, omgekeerde migratie van werkzoekenden.
Partijman Zheng, die logeert in een vijfsterrenhotel, en een eerdere afspraak annuleerde omdat hij te dronken was geworden op een diner met kameraden, tikt bij het ontbijt met een zorgelijk gezicht op zijn eitje: „Nu is er nog wel werk, ook in de exportsector, zeker voor geschoolde werkers. Maar we maken ons grote zorgen voor volgend jaar. Ik heb gehoord dat er nog veel meer speelgoedfabrieken zullen sluiten en in alle andere exportsectoren, vooral textiel, schoenen en meubels, lopen de orders snel terug.”
Zheng vertelt dat vooral ongeschoolde migrantenarbeiders – en dat zijn de meesten uit Sichuan – het heel zwaar zullen krijgen. Het meeste werk in de Parelrivierdelta was simpel, zwaar en vaak ook vuil en gevaarlijk. Als gevolg van de nieuwe Arbeidswet en ontwikkelingen in productieprocessen is daar geleidelijk aan enige verandering in gekomen, hoewel in vooral de kleinere fabrieken nog steeds sprake is van wantoestanden.
Daadkracht
„Jonge mannen en vrouwen met vakbekwaamheden komen probleemloos aan werk, niet alleen nu maar ook volgend jaar. We doen daarom alles om migrantenarbeiders te trainen. Iedereen die nu werkloos is geworden kan een opleiding gaan volgen”, vertelt Zheng om de – verbale – daadkracht van het provinciebestuur te illustreren.
Daar hebben Li Yuan en Wang Yuan nog heel weinig van gemerkt. Als hun gevraagd wordt of zij nu eerst op cursus gaan, is het voor het eerst dat ze over het bijscholingsplan horen, en zij betwijfelen of het waar is. Zij slenteren van hun kamers terug naar de fabriek, nu een spookcomplex. Ook de eethuizen bij de fabriek zijn dicht en in de winkeltjes is het stil. Er hangen bij de poort meer migrantenwerkers rond. Het gerucht gaat dat de fabriek misschien wel heropend wordt. Bij bierverkoper Sun wordt gekaart, mahjong gespeeld, gegiecheld en geroddeld. Een jongen met een zware rugzak loopt langs in de richting van de poort die tot zijn verbazing gesloten is. De 18-jarige Guo komt uit het stadje Zhaojie in zuidelijk Sichuan, 1.500 kilometer ver, want hij had gehoord hier meteen aan het werk te kunnen als elektromonteur. Hij heeft drie dagen en nachten opgevouwen in een slaapbus doorgebracht.
Als hem wordt verteld dat er geen fabriek meer is en dat andere fabrieken in de buurt zijn gesloten nadat de managers „plotseling waren verdwenen”, begint hij energiek de aangeplakte telefoonnummers van arbeidsbureaus in zijn mobieltje op te slaan. „Ik moet werk vinden, er is gezegd dat er altijd veel werk was. Het zal ook wel lukken”, hoopt hij. De twee werkloze vrouwen lachen een beetje om hem, ook omdat zij beseffen dat hij waarschijnlijk kansrijker is dan zij.
Stil
„Het is hier nog nooit zo stil geweest”, constateert Zhuang Jiayin, hoofd verkoop van de machinefabriek Dg Nekon uit Dongguan, op World Shoetec, de grootste schoenenbeurs in de Parelrivierdelta. In de afgelopen jaren had Zhuang op de tweede beursdag meestal al voor 20 miljoen dollar aan geavanceerde schoenmakersapparatuur, zoals de ‘ultra sonic slitting machine’ of de ‘double disc ultra-sonic hot-fix machine’ verkocht. Nu heeft hij voor amper 100.000 dollar (78.400 euro) omgezet.
Bij de stands van de schoenfabrikanten – Jingheng, Kuari en vele andere fabrieken waar 40 procent van de schoenen in de wereld worden gemaakt – vervelen de verkoopmanagers zich zelfs stierlijk. Vorig jaar omstreeks dezelfde tijd waren de orderboeken voor de eerstvolgende maanden al gevuld. „Je zou denken dat mensen altijd schoenen nodig hebben, maar dat is niet zo. Amerika is het probleem, dan Europa, ik heb nog geen Fransman, Hollander of Duitser aan mijn bureau gehad. Alleen Rusland is nog oké en er komen opeens meer bestellingen uit Syrië”, zegt Chang Yuan, verkoopdirectrice van Kuari. Dankzij langer lopende contracten met het Amerikaanse merk Steve Maddens lopen de 1.800 werknemers van Kuari niet onmiddellijk gevaar, maar op de schoenenbeurs is geen bedrijf te vinden dat weet of dit het laatste jaar is. Enkele stands zijn leeg omdat aangemelde bedrijven al failliet zijn gegaan. Alleen bij Progressive worden goede zaken gedaan. Dit bedrijf maakt hooggehakt, felgekleurd schoeisel voor met name het Londense uitgaansleven. „Wat vandaag mode wordt, kunnen wij binnen zeven dagen leveren. Dat is onze kracht en daardoor merken we niets van een crisis, want onze klanten blijven gewoon uitgaan”, zegt directeur Lie.
Honderdduizenden Arabieren, Afrikanen, Aziaten en westerlingen komen altijd naar de beurzen hier. Maar dit jaar slinken bezoekersaantallen en omzetten.
toch groeit de chinese economie met 6 a 7% en worden de werklozen tewerkgesteld bij wegenaanleg en woningbouw, kunnen ze hier wat van leren
Indd.. als ze hun marktpositie kwijtraken en verovereren ze het maar weer terug met nuke's. Zijn net kleine kinderen op de basisschool die de baas willen blijvenquote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 07:19 schreef 68Chevelle het volgende:
Zoiets zouden de amerikanen zien als een directe oorlogsdreiging.
[ afbeelding ]
Liever 60% terug dan helemaal nietsquote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 10:43 schreef MoltiSanti het volgende:
Waarom zouden zie die dollars dumpen?
Ze hebben zoveel, dat wanneer ze de helft dumpen, de andere helft niets meer waard is.
Bovendien staan ze dan op vijandige voet met de Verenigde Staten, die tot op heden in Azïe voor betrekkekelijke regionale stabiliteit zorgde.
Als laatst is de VS de grootste export partner van China, het dumpen van dollars zal zeker als een aanval beschouwd worden wat de export niet ten goede zal komen.
Interessant stuk over die fabrieken in Guangdong. Ik heb er een speciaal gevoel bij omdat ik er zelf heb gewoond/ gewerkt (in 2001)quote:
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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jij bent 1 van de gevluchte managersquote:Op maandag 8 december 2008 09:50 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Interessant stuk over die fabrieken in Guangdong. Ik heb er een speciaal gevoel bij omdat ik er zelf heb gewoond/ gewerkt (in 2001)
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Idere chinees betaald de andere in dollars, de russen hebben pakken dollars.quote:Op maandag 8 december 2008 08:23 schreef Netstorm het volgende:
[..]
Liever 60% terug dan helemaal niets
En de US maar lachen met ieder jaar 6% inflatie
Sommige artikels zijn betere dan andere artikels.... deze geeft vrij goed aan in welke spagaat China (alsook de VS) zit.quote:A Far-East Fiasco?
Vitaliy Katsenelson Dec 26, 2008 11:30 am
China must stimulate economy or risk political unrest.
I often start my morning readings by eating an egg, cheese and turkey sandwich at Panera Bread. This morning was no different. I was reading newspapers on my Kindle and sipping hazelnut coffee (I know, I just lost the respect of true coffee drinkers, but I like hazelnut). I began with yesterday’s Financial Times. There was an article on China. I believe watching what's going on in China is important, as China has a significant impact on the US, so I started reading:
“The benchmark one-year lending rate was cut by 27 basis points to 5.31 per cent, while the one-year deposit rate was lowered by the same amount to 2.25 per cent.”
That’s not surprising news, plus it shows some originality - China doesn’t want to end up like the US. So it cut interest rates in a multiple of 27 basis points, not in boring multiples of 25 basis points.
“The government estimates more than 10m migrant workers have lost their jobs so far, while 6.5m university students will enter the workforce next year.”
China is unlikely to escape the fate of developing countries, and facing higher unemployment, a question is raised: Will this lead to political unrest? High unemployment in China is very different than high unemployment in the US or Europe. Unlike in the developed world, there isn't much of a social net in China.
If you lose your job in Kansas, you may be forced to shop at Wal-Mart (WMT) instead of Target (TGT) and downgrade to basic cable (only 50 channels, sorry). Of course I'm oversimplifying, but the point is in the US we have unemployment benefits and many other government programs aimed at keeping us from starving. This isn't the case in China.
As China's social net is in its infancy, high unemployment in many cases may mean hunger and, ultimately, political unrest. The Chinese government knows this well. Unless it comes up with social net very quickly, it will need to stimulate the hell out of its economy - far beyond the stimulus announced to date. This means more government spending. But the next bit of news I read revealed that doing so would be difficult:
“China's foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world, apparently fell in October for the first time in five years, according to an official from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.”
Published economic numbers are likely not describing the true economic reality in China, as -- despite economic growth for the first time in a long time -- the country feels the need to dip into its piggy bank. But here’s the scary part: That piggy bank is filled with US dollars. Our government is printing a lot of money at the moment to deal with its own problems. It may or may not be inflationary in the short term (although definitely in the long term), as the velocity of money seems to be declining at a fast rate. Banks are barely lending and consumers are deleveraging and are reluctant to borrow.
But if the Chinese economy continues to deteriorate -- a likely scenario as the deterioration just started -- the Chinese government will need to start digging into its US reserves. And since there are no other natural buyers (in size) of the US debt, our interest rates may actually shoot up while the US dollar drops.
This creates a twofold problem for China: High interest rates mean even lower economic growth in the US, and even less consumption of Chinese-made goods. China can't afford a weak US dollar; that would mean its US dollar reserves will be worth even less while its products become move expensive for US consumers.
Here’s one last thought: All this is taking place while 30-year government bonds are at one of their lowest rates ever. US government bonds are likely the most overpriced asset in the world, period!
Dat zijn de officiele cijfers, maar er is her en der de indruk dat de realiteit ietwat andere cijfers te zien zal geven. Mijns inziens krijgt China een harde klap en betalen ze de rekening voor hun eigen strategie - de munt expres laag houden ten opzichte van de dollar om de export te stimuleren.quote:Op maandag 8 december 2008 08:00 schreef henkway het volgende:
toch groeit de chinese economie met 6 a 7% en worden de werklozen tewerkgesteld bij wegenaanleg en woningbouw, kunnen ze hier wat van leren
Aangezien er geen vergelijkbare interne markt is in China kan men de geproduceerde goederen voor de export niet in China zelf kwijt. Nu de export daalt (en rap) heeft men een probleem.
Beetje side news.... maar toch de moeite waard.
quote:A curious call from Societe Generale
Thursday, January 15, 2009
It's one thing to call for a depression - you don't have to look very far in the "alternate news" section of the internet to find forecasts like this and they've been a constant for many, many years - but to hear an analyst at a major firm predict a depression, that's a little different.
When this same analyst also recommended buying stocks two months ago, then it become something of a curiosity. The details are in this report from Reuters.
Societe Generale said on Thursday that the United States' economy looks likely to enter a depression and China's could implode.
In a highly bearish note, veteran cross asset strategist Albert Edwards said investors should now cut equity exposure after a turn-of-the-year rally and prepare for a rout.
...
"While economic data in developed economies increasingly reflects depression rather than a deep recession, the real surprise in 2009 may lie elsewhere," Edwards wrote.
"It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue the yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression."
Edwards has long been one of the most bearish analysts in London, first with Dresdner Kleinwort and then with SocGen.
But he called in October for clients to increase their exposure to equities, which he said were due a rebound.
A target of 500 for the S&P 500 was cited - this represents a decline of another 40 percent from current levels, down almost 70 percent from the 2007 highs.
Hoe wil men de yuan devalueren, denken die chinezen echt dat de rest van de wereld hieraan gaat meewerken. Het is voor veel landen al lang een doorn in het oog dat china die yuan te goedkoop aan de dollar gekoppeld heeft.quote:Op vrijdag 16 januari 2009 09:10 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
Beetje side news.... maar toch de moeite waard.
[..]
Een half jaar geleden voorspelde ik al handelsoorlogen. Dit artikel sluit er naadloos op aan.quote:Op vrijdag 16 januari 2009 09:30 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
[..]
Hoe wil men de yuan devalueren, denken die chinezen echt dat de rest van de wereld hieraan gaat meewerken. Het is voor veel landen al lang een doorn in het oog dat china die yuan te goedkoop aan de dollar gekoppeld heeft.
Of je het nu 'groeivertraging' noemt of 'recessie' of 'depressie' dat maakt me niet zoveel uit. Maar de grote lijn van het artikel klopt wel. Er is een sterke vertraging van de groei en er is een substantieel risico op sociale onrust
Wat betreft het devalueren van de yuan, ze zijn in elk geval al geruime tijd gestopt met het laten stijgen van de yuan, ondanks de afspraken met de Amerikanen daarover.
China zal (net als elk ander land) uiteindelijk altijd voor zichzelf kiezen, en als ze een devaluatie van de yuan nodig vinden dan zullen ze dat gewoon doen. Dat is overigens een voorzichtige afweging tussen de kosten van een handelsoorlog (in geld en politieke kosten) en de voordelen van een lage yuan. Een handelsoorlog verwacht ik zelf trouwens ook, vooral omdat Obama een voorstander is van protectionisme (wat dit betreft had je echt veel beter McCain kunnen hebben).
De voorspelling die in het artikel wordt gedaan dat de S&P500 naar 500 gaat dalen lijkt extreem, maar in termen van waardering is dat helemaal niet extreem vergeleken met eerdere crises. Zie onderstaande plaatje.
Wat betreft het devalueren van de yuan, ze zijn in elk geval al geruime tijd gestopt met het laten stijgen van de yuan, ondanks de afspraken met de Amerikanen daarover.
China zal (net als elk ander land) uiteindelijk altijd voor zichzelf kiezen, en als ze een devaluatie van de yuan nodig vinden dan zullen ze dat gewoon doen. Dat is overigens een voorzichtige afweging tussen de kosten van een handelsoorlog (in geld en politieke kosten) en de voordelen van een lage yuan. Een handelsoorlog verwacht ik zelf trouwens ook, vooral omdat Obama een voorstander is van protectionisme (wat dit betreft had je echt veel beter McCain kunnen hebben).
De voorspelling die in het artikel wordt gedaan dat de S&P500 naar 500 gaat dalen lijkt extreem, maar in termen van waardering is dat helemaal niet extreem vergeleken met eerdere crises. Zie onderstaande plaatje.
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
Wel leuk om te zien, dat je dit nu zegt, ik kan me je strategieen van maanden geleden nog herinneren dat bij een S&P van 1000 of was het 900 een goed instap moment zou zijn met de wetenschap die we toen hadden.quote:Op vrijdag 16 januari 2009 10:14 schreef SeLang het volgende:
De voorspelling die in het artikel wordt gedaan dat de S&P500 naar 500 gaat dalen lijkt extreem, maar in termen van waardering is dat helemaal niet extreem vergeleken met eerdere crises. Zie onderstaande plaatje.
Wie je beter had kunnen hebben is een big what if.quote:Op vrijdag 16 januari 2009 10:14 schreef SeLang het volgende:
China zal (net als elk ander land) uiteindelijk altijd voor zichzelf kiezen, en als ze een devaluatie van de yuan nodig vinden dan zullen ze dat gewoon doen. Dat is overigens een voorzichtige afweging tussen de kosten van een handelsoorlog (in geld en politieke kosten) en de voordelen van een lage yuan. Een handelsoorlog verwacht ik zelf trouwens ook, vooral omdat Obama een voorstander is van protectionisme (wat dit betreft had je echt veel beter McCain kunnen hebben).
Maar als er barricades worden opgetrokken van protectionisme dan is een handelsoorlog de volgende logische stap.
Vroeg of laat zal China de Amerikaanse dollars en schuldpapieren dumpen zodat deze niet als chantage middel kunnen worden gebruikt. Ik zou op vroeg gokken. China kiest natuurlijk eerst voor zichzelf. Ook al zijn de interne inkomens/welvaartverschillen behoorlijk groot. Als er interne opstanden komen... dan gaat het gelijk volluit (en dat gaat iets verder dan een studentenprotest). Het is in de geschiedenis vaker voorgekomen dat een keizer-achtig iets door de bevolking met flink bloedvergieten van de troon is gestoten.
No fucking way dat China lijdzaam zal toezien dat hun economische spiegel in stukjes ligt. Ze hebben nog wat reserves om als troefkaart uit te spelen. En die gaan ze spelen...
Het merkwaardige feit dat China toenadering zoekt met Japan is al een dikke knipoog dat alles wat westers is niet heilig is.
- Beter een goede buur dan een verre vriend. -
Als je het goed hebt gelezen dan weet je dat dat een 'ballpark figure' was gebaseerd op de voorwaarde dat 2007 winsten sustainable zouden zijn. Dus als er geen serieuze crisis zou zijn maar slechts een technische correctie. De S&P500 stond toen ook nog honderden punten boven dat niveau. Aangezien we toch tientallen procenten hoger stonden ben ik niet verder gegaan dan die grove schatting. Naarmate dit niveau dichter in de buurt kwam ben ik nauwkeuriger gaan kijken of het tijd werd voor actie. In plaats van op basis van de laatste winsten met behulp van de gemiddelde P/E de S&P500 terug te rekenen naar fair value zoals ik eerst deed gebruik ik nu de Shiller P/E omdat de gewone P/E jaar over jaar teveel varieert.quote:Op vrijdag 16 januari 2009 10:19 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
[..]
Wel leuk om te zien, dat je dit nu zegt, ik kan me je strategieen van maanden geleden nog herinneren dat bij een S&P van 1000 of was het 900 een goed instap moment zou zijn met de wetenschap die we toen hadden.
Overigens zie ik 900 nog steeds als 'fair value', ook gebaseerd op dit laatste plaatje, dus historisch gezien koop je niet duur maar ook niet goedkoop (de nullijn in het plaatje ligt in de buurt van de 900). De vraag of dit een technische correctie is of dat we in een crisis van historische proporties zitten is inmiddels beantwoord. Aangezien de waardering tijdens crises de neiging heeft om naar beneden toe door te schieten neem ik geen genoegen met 'fair value' maar ga ik voor een substantiele korting. Natuurlijk met het risico om straks de boot te missen.
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
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Daar gaat het harder tekeer dan in de VS.quote:Bloomberg
The Chinese economy will “likely get much worse before getting better,” said Wang Qing, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.
Chinese manufacturers shed jobs last month at the fastest pace since the index began in 2004, the CLSA survey showed.
About 20 million migrant workers have lost their jobs because of the nation’s economic slowdown, Chen Xiwen, a senior rural planning official said at a briefing in Beijing today.
En dan zou de economie groeien met 6 %.... ik geloof er geen bal van.
Lachen... DFT ziet het ook.
quote:Sterke stijging werkloosheid China
PEKING (AFN) - De werkloosheid in China is sterk toegenomen. Circa 20 miljoen migranten van het platteland die werk zochten in de steden, zijn inmiddels werkloos teruggekeerd naar huis. Dat maakten de autoriteiten maandag bekend. In januari meldden de autoriteiten een getal van zes miljoen werkloze plattelandsmigranten.
De cijfers zijn gebaseerd op statistisch onderzoek in 150 dorpen in vijftien verschillende provincies.
Daarnaast zijn er zes tot zeven miljoen nieuwkomers die voor het eerst proberen een baan buiten het dorp te vinden. Als gevolg van de sterk afzwakkende economie zou slechts een klein deel daarin kunnen slagen, aldus Chen Xwen, directeur van een nationale werkgroep voor het platteland.
De Chinese overheid houdt de groep werkloze plattelandsmigranten goed in de gaten, omdat de autoriteiten vrezen voor ongeregeldheden en protest als gevolg van het banenverlies. Afgelopen weekeinde prestenteerde de Chinese regering een beleidsstuk om de sociale en economische ontwikkeling op het platteland te stimuleren.
En China moet Europa uit het dal trekken volgens Balkenendequote:Op maandag 2 februari 2009 08:59 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
[..]
Daar gaat het harder tekeer dan in de VS.
En dan zou de economie groeien met 6 %.... ik geloof er geen bal van.
Shanghai Index May Drop 25% on Economy, Xie Says (Update1)
By Allen Wan and Erik Schatzker
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Shanghai Composite Index, the world’s worst performer in August, may fall another 25 percent as China’s economic recovery isn’t “sustainable,” former Morgan Stanley Asian economist Andy Xie said.
The measure plunged 6.7 percent to 2,667.75 yesterday, the most since June 2008, and entered a bear market on concern a slower lending growth may derail a rebound in the world’s third- largest economy. Xie said the index “should be 2000 or less.”
“The market is in deep bubble territory,” Xie, 49, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
China’s retreat sent the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations down 0.8 percent, while MSCI’s emerging-market index lost 1.5 percent, the biggest drop in two weeks. The Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index, tracking American depositary receipts of Chinese shares, lost 2.3 percent, led by commodity producers.
The Shanghai gauge slumped 22 percent in August, the biggest decline among 89 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg, as banks reined in lending to avert asset bubbles and policy makers advised industries such as steel and cement to curb overcapacity. The decline stopped a rally that had sent the measure up 103 percent from a November low on prospects the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program and a record amount of new credit would ensure the economy grows at least 8 percent this year.
Strong Numbers
“The local market bears are convinced that tightening is already underway,” said Howard Wang, head of the Greater China team at JF Asset Management, which oversees $50 billion. Only “a very strong set of macro numbers in August” or “stronger statements from central authorities” would change this trend, Wang said.
Still, Chinese stocks are trading at the steepest discount in the world compared with analysts’ price targets after the month-long slump. The gap of 13 percent below analysts’ combined price targets is the largest among the world’s 10 largest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Equities in China remain “a bright spot” among global stocks because of the nation’s strong growth potential, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday.
‘Exit Strategy’
“We think the market concerns about a near-term ‘exit strategy’ appear premature as the government remains pro- growth,” Thomas Deng and Kinger Lau, analysts at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a research note.
Goldman Sachs has boosted its growth forecasts for China’s economy to 9.4 percent this year from an earlier estimate of 8.3 percent, it said in the note. Gross domestic product may increase 11.9 percent in 2010, higher than an earlier estimate of 10.9 percent, it added.
The People’s Bank of China will also have “very limited room” to raise interest rates by the end of this year, Deng and Lau wrote.
“The A share market is undergoing a correction rather than a bursting of the bubble,” said Richard Gao, who helps manage $2.8 billion at Matthews International Capital Management LCC in San Francisco. “Short term trading will be very volatile but we believe a strong economic recovery is underway in China and remain quite positive on the long-term growth potential.”
The government will maintain its fiscal and monetary policies because the economy faces many “uncertainties,” Premier Wen Jiabao said this month. Economic growth will slow in the fourth quarter as exports remain mired in a slump, Xie said.
“The recovery is not sustainable,” Xie, who resigned as Morgan Stanley’s chief economist in Asia in 2006 and now works as an independent economist, said in the interview yesterday from Shanghai.
Expectations
“This is a short-term negative,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $101 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “Expectations have been too high that China would be a driver of everything. Much has to come out of the expectations balloon.”
At least 150 stocks on the 898-member Shanghai index dropped by the daily 10 percent limit. Industrial Bank Co. and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. tumbled by the permitted cap after Caijing magazine reported new loan growth this month may be almost half that of July. Lower profits dragged Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the nation’s biggest steelmaker, and China Southern Airlines Co. down at least 7 percent.
The Shanghai index trades at 29.39 times reported earnings, according to Bloomberg data. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a 22-country benchmark, trades for 18.9 times profit.
New Loans Drop
China may have 200 billion yuan of new loans in August, the Beijing-based Caijing reported today on its Web site. That compares with 7.4 trillion yuan for the first half of 2009 and 355.9 billion yuan in July alone. The government plans to tighten capital requirements for financial institutions, three people familiar with the matter said this month.
An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months of this year, China Business News reported June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council.
“The government is now pulling the plug on liquidity,” said Xie, who is a guest columnist for Caijing. “Hopefully, it’s not too late.”
===============================================================================
Daar is het dus ff ook niet rozengeur en maneschijn.
By Allen Wan and Erik Schatzker
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Shanghai Composite Index, the world’s worst performer in August, may fall another 25 percent as China’s economic recovery isn’t “sustainable,” former Morgan Stanley Asian economist Andy Xie said.
The measure plunged 6.7 percent to 2,667.75 yesterday, the most since June 2008, and entered a bear market on concern a slower lending growth may derail a rebound in the world’s third- largest economy. Xie said the index “should be 2000 or less.”
“The market is in deep bubble territory,” Xie, 49, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
China’s retreat sent the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations down 0.8 percent, while MSCI’s emerging-market index lost 1.5 percent, the biggest drop in two weeks. The Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index, tracking American depositary receipts of Chinese shares, lost 2.3 percent, led by commodity producers.
The Shanghai gauge slumped 22 percent in August, the biggest decline among 89 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg, as banks reined in lending to avert asset bubbles and policy makers advised industries such as steel and cement to curb overcapacity. The decline stopped a rally that had sent the measure up 103 percent from a November low on prospects the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program and a record amount of new credit would ensure the economy grows at least 8 percent this year.
Strong Numbers
“The local market bears are convinced that tightening is already underway,” said Howard Wang, head of the Greater China team at JF Asset Management, which oversees $50 billion. Only “a very strong set of macro numbers in August” or “stronger statements from central authorities” would change this trend, Wang said.
Still, Chinese stocks are trading at the steepest discount in the world compared with analysts’ price targets after the month-long slump. The gap of 13 percent below analysts’ combined price targets is the largest among the world’s 10 largest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Equities in China remain “a bright spot” among global stocks because of the nation’s strong growth potential, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday.
‘Exit Strategy’
“We think the market concerns about a near-term ‘exit strategy’ appear premature as the government remains pro- growth,” Thomas Deng and Kinger Lau, analysts at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a research note.
Goldman Sachs has boosted its growth forecasts for China’s economy to 9.4 percent this year from an earlier estimate of 8.3 percent, it said in the note. Gross domestic product may increase 11.9 percent in 2010, higher than an earlier estimate of 10.9 percent, it added.
The People’s Bank of China will also have “very limited room” to raise interest rates by the end of this year, Deng and Lau wrote.
“The A share market is undergoing a correction rather than a bursting of the bubble,” said Richard Gao, who helps manage $2.8 billion at Matthews International Capital Management LCC in San Francisco. “Short term trading will be very volatile but we believe a strong economic recovery is underway in China and remain quite positive on the long-term growth potential.”
The government will maintain its fiscal and monetary policies because the economy faces many “uncertainties,” Premier Wen Jiabao said this month. Economic growth will slow in the fourth quarter as exports remain mired in a slump, Xie said.
“The recovery is not sustainable,” Xie, who resigned as Morgan Stanley’s chief economist in Asia in 2006 and now works as an independent economist, said in the interview yesterday from Shanghai.
Expectations
“This is a short-term negative,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $101 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “Expectations have been too high that China would be a driver of everything. Much has to come out of the expectations balloon.”
At least 150 stocks on the 898-member Shanghai index dropped by the daily 10 percent limit. Industrial Bank Co. and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. tumbled by the permitted cap after Caijing magazine reported new loan growth this month may be almost half that of July. Lower profits dragged Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the nation’s biggest steelmaker, and China Southern Airlines Co. down at least 7 percent.
The Shanghai index trades at 29.39 times reported earnings, according to Bloomberg data. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a 22-country benchmark, trades for 18.9 times profit.
New Loans Drop
China may have 200 billion yuan of new loans in August, the Beijing-based Caijing reported today on its Web site. That compares with 7.4 trillion yuan for the first half of 2009 and 355.9 billion yuan in July alone. The government plans to tighten capital requirements for financial institutions, three people familiar with the matter said this month.
An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months of this year, China Business News reported June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council.
“The government is now pulling the plug on liquidity,” said Xie, who is a guest columnist for Caijing. “Hopefully, it’s not too late.”
===============================================================================
Daar is het dus ff ook niet rozengeur en maneschijn.
Markets hit by China commodity default
Monday, August 31 12:48:54
A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), told six foreign banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying in an article published on Saturday.
While the details of the report could not be confirmed, it was Monday's hot topic in financial circles from Shanghai to Singapore as commodity marketers feared that companies holding underwater price hedges could simply renege on the deals, costing banks millions of dollars in profit.
The warning from SASAC follows a series of measures from Beijing this year to crack down on the sale of derivative products by foreign banks to Chinese enterprises, principally big consumers, who bought protection against higher prices last year only to watch the market collapse -- leaving them with losses.
While many companies including top airlines have come clean on the losses, some analysts fear another wave may follow.
"I wouldn't be surprised if more state firms emerge with big derivatives trading losses, otherwise SASAC wouldn't come out with such a radical move," said a Hong Kong-based derivatives analyst, who like most other industry officials and bankers declined to be named due to the high sensitivity of the issue.
A SASAC media official said on Monday that he was waiting for the "relevant department's" official comment before he can clarify to media. A government official said that the Bureau of Financial Supervision and Evaluation under SASAC was handling the issue. The official declined to be named and did not elaborate.
Spokespersons at Goldman Sachs and UBS declined comment, and media officials at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan were not immediately available for comment. All are major global providers of commodity risk management.
No bank were named in the Caijing report. The SASAC media officer also declined to identify any specific banks.
"It's a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to re-negotiate," said a second banking source. "It's outrageous, but it's China, so everyone is treading very carefully."
For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world's fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like.
The report follows an order from SASAC in July that required all central government-controlled state companies engaged in trading derivatives to make quarterly reports about their investments, including details of holdings and performance.
But the reported letter opened several important questions that could not immediately be answered. "If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details on the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, the government or the corporate's? And under what was the reason for defaulting?" said a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank.
The source, whose bank did not receive a letter, said that Air China, China Eastern and shipping giant COSCO - among the Chinese companies that have reported huge derivatives losses since last year - had issued almost identical notices to banks.
"If it's in the name of the government, the impact will be very negative," said the source, who declined to be named.
Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing -- SASAC as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks.
"It's like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won't pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association. (C ) Reuters
============================================================================
Rules there are no rules in China.
Monday, August 31 12:48:54
A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), told six foreign banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying in an article published on Saturday.
While the details of the report could not be confirmed, it was Monday's hot topic in financial circles from Shanghai to Singapore as commodity marketers feared that companies holding underwater price hedges could simply renege on the deals, costing banks millions of dollars in profit.
The warning from SASAC follows a series of measures from Beijing this year to crack down on the sale of derivative products by foreign banks to Chinese enterprises, principally big consumers, who bought protection against higher prices last year only to watch the market collapse -- leaving them with losses.
While many companies including top airlines have come clean on the losses, some analysts fear another wave may follow.
"I wouldn't be surprised if more state firms emerge with big derivatives trading losses, otherwise SASAC wouldn't come out with such a radical move," said a Hong Kong-based derivatives analyst, who like most other industry officials and bankers declined to be named due to the high sensitivity of the issue.
A SASAC media official said on Monday that he was waiting for the "relevant department's" official comment before he can clarify to media. A government official said that the Bureau of Financial Supervision and Evaluation under SASAC was handling the issue. The official declined to be named and did not elaborate.
Spokespersons at Goldman Sachs and UBS declined comment, and media officials at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan were not immediately available for comment. All are major global providers of commodity risk management.
No bank were named in the Caijing report. The SASAC media officer also declined to identify any specific banks.
"It's a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to re-negotiate," said a second banking source. "It's outrageous, but it's China, so everyone is treading very carefully."
For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world's fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like.
The report follows an order from SASAC in July that required all central government-controlled state companies engaged in trading derivatives to make quarterly reports about their investments, including details of holdings and performance.
But the reported letter opened several important questions that could not immediately be answered. "If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details on the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, the government or the corporate's? And under what was the reason for defaulting?" said a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank.
The source, whose bank did not receive a letter, said that Air China, China Eastern and shipping giant COSCO - among the Chinese companies that have reported huge derivatives losses since last year - had issued almost identical notices to banks.
"If it's in the name of the government, the impact will be very negative," said the source, who declined to be named.
Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing -- SASAC as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks.
"It's like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won't pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association. (C ) Reuters
============================================================================
Rules there are no rules in China.
Wat wordt daar precies mee bedoeld?quote:A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.
---
And when the leaves fall the land looks more human
it's got me questioning the essence of my farm boy blues
hence, I never wore the fashions of the know-what-I'm-doin'
And when the leaves fall the land looks more human
it's got me questioning the essence of my farm boy blues
hence, I never wore the fashions of the know-what-I'm-doin'
Dat de verliesgevende side bets niet uitbetaald worden door Chinese staatsbedrijven. Ook al participeren ze mee in deze hedge market.
Zoiets maakt de derivaten handel in China behoorlijk stuk. En dan moet je weer terug bij wie die papieren en garanties hebben uitgeven.
De vraag is nu eigenlijk, welke buitenlandse investeerder durft er nu nog in te stappen als hij zijn inzet niet kan hedgen (denk niet veel).
Zoiets maakt de derivaten handel in China behoorlijk stuk. En dan moet je weer terug bij wie die papieren en garanties hebben uitgeven.
De vraag is nu eigenlijk, welke buitenlandse investeerder durft er nu nog in te stappen als hij zijn inzet niet kan hedgen (denk niet veel).
ach bedrijven leren het toch niet dat is al de zoveelste keer dat ze genaaid worden door china, maar toch blijven ze vrolijk technologie en geld er heen schepen
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Even een praktische vraag aan de ervaren (China) reizigers die hier rondhangen. Als ik goud mee wil nemen naar Shanghai, kan ik het dan gewoon aangeven bij de douane, in mijn zak steken en meenemen? Hoe zit dat met goud vervoeren over de grenzen in het algemeen? Ik las laatst dat er een gozer bij de zwitserse grens opgepakt was met zijn auto vol goudstaven of waardepapieren.
Ligt eraan hoeveel, je moet namelijk wel aangifte doen voor alles met een waarde boven de 5,000USD.
Vraagje van mij aan de volgers van de Chinese munteenheid de Yuan. Zal deze in de komende 3-5 jaar stijgen tov de Dollar of dalen en waarom?
Vraagje van mij aan de volgers van de Chinese munteenheid de Yuan. Zal deze in de komende 3-5 jaar stijgen tov de Dollar of dalen en waarom?
No bad soldiers under a good leader
dit bedoel jequote:Op zaterdag 5 september 2009 12:46 schreef arjanus het volgende:
Even een praktische vraag aan de ervaren (China) reizigers die hier rondhangen. Als ik goud mee wil nemen naar Shanghai, kan ik het dan gewoon aangeven bij de douane, in mijn zak steken en meenemen? Hoe zit dat met goud vervoeren over de grenzen in het algemeen? Ik las laatst dat er een gozer bij de zwitserse grens opgepakt was met zijn auto vol goudstaven of waardepapieren.
http://www.telegraaf.nl/b(...)miljard__.html?p=5,2
Zwitsers bankgeheim in geding na schikking fraudezaak
De Chinese Rmb gaat stijgen zodra de chinese overheid de rmb loskoppelt van de dollar. De chinese balans staat vol met vorderingen, de Amerikaanse vol met schulden. Ik kan het ook niet beter uitleggenquote:Op zondag 6 september 2009 19:03 schreef Rbhp het volgende:
Vraagje van mij aan de volgers van de Chinese munteenheid de Yuan. Zal deze in de komende 3-5 jaar stijgen tov de Dollar of dalen en waarom?
Arjanus, China heeft hele andere regels mbt invoer dan Zwitserland. Goed, dat begrijp jij volgens mij ook wel dus dat hoef ik niet uit te leggen. Waardepapieren kun je meenemen, die checken ze niet, maar goudstaven meenemen, das een ander verhaal.
Wbt de RMB, toen ik naar China ging in 2005 stond die nog tussen de 8.nogwat:1 (RMB vs USD). Nu staat ie op 6.8:1. Ik dacht dat ie al deels was losgekoppeld, maar dat begrijp ik nog steeds niet helemaal na 4 jaar China. Het probleem is dat ze de komende 20 jaar nooit de RMB van de dollar zullen loskoppelen. Ik wil nu een lening aanvragen in USD hier in China, en maak me een beetje zorgen om die exchange rate, aangezien ik in RMB betaald krijg. Als de USD omhoog gaat, dan ben ik een klein beetje de lul...
Wbt de RMB, toen ik naar China ging in 2005 stond die nog tussen de 8.nogwat:1 (RMB vs USD). Nu staat ie op 6.8:1. Ik dacht dat ie al deels was losgekoppeld, maar dat begrijp ik nog steeds niet helemaal na 4 jaar China. Het probleem is dat ze de komende 20 jaar nooit de RMB van de dollar zullen loskoppelen. Ik wil nu een lening aanvragen in USD hier in China, en maak me een beetje zorgen om die exchange rate, aangezien ik in RMB betaald krijg. Als de USD omhoog gaat, dan ben ik een klein beetje de lul...
No bad soldiers under a good leader
Persoonlijk denk ik dat je sowieso beter van de dollar af kunt blijven, met 1 uitzondering daargelaten: neem een lening in usd, zet de rente zo laag mogelijk voor 20 jaar vast. En stop er geen eigen dollars in, dus alleen de rente aflossen. Als je bijvoorbeeld een huis in China koopt en zo goedkoper uit bent dan huren, dan doet de inflatie z'n werk en stelt die lening over 20 jaar niks meer voor.quote:Op maandag 7 september 2009 05:01 schreef Rbhp het volgende:
Wbt de RMB, toen ik naar China ging in 2005 stond die nog tussen de 8.nogwat:1 (RMB vs USD). Nu staat ie op 6.8:1. Ik dacht dat ie al deels was losgekoppeld, maar dat begrijp ik nog steeds niet helemaal na 4 jaar China. Het probleem is dat ze de komende 20 jaar nooit de RMB van de dollar zullen loskoppelen. Ik wil nu een lening aanvragen in USD hier in China, en maak me een beetje zorgen om die exchange rate, aangezien ik in RMB betaald krijg. Als de USD omhoog gaat, dan ben ik een klein beetje de lul...
Over de rmb vs usd ratio heb ik geen mening. Dat kan alle kanten op. De Chinezen zouden het beste af zijn als ze hun munt loskoppelen van de dollar, maar ik heb verder geen kijk op wat voor krachten er daar verder nog spelen.
Als China de RMB loskoppelt, dan halveren de vorderingen in dollars op de balans, dat kan men niet doenquote:Op zondag 6 september 2009 21:16 schreef arjanus het volgende:
[..]
De Chinese Rmb gaat stijgen zodra de chinese overheid de rmb loskoppelt van de dollar. De chinese balans staat vol met vorderingen, de Amerikaanse vol met schulden. Ik kan het ook niet beter uitleggen
Aha, ik snap je punt, en je hebt helemaal gelijk. Heb nu een lening in usd voor 30 jaar, rente op 2.95, maar die kan niet vastgesteld worden voor een vaste periode, is afhankelijk van de markt, met een discount van .30%. Dan nog denk ik dat het vrij interessant is om op dit moment in usd te lenen.quote:Op zaterdag 12 september 2009 12:12 schreef arjanus het volgende:
[..]
Persoonlijk denk ik dat je sowieso beter van de dollar af kunt blijven, met 1 uitzondering daargelaten: neem een lening in usd, zet de rente zo laag mogelijk voor 20 jaar vast. En stop er geen eigen dollars in, dus alleen de rente aflossen. Als je bijvoorbeeld een huis in China koopt en zo goedkoper uit bent dan huren, dan doet de inflatie z'n werk en stelt die lening over 20 jaar niks meer voor.
Over de rmb vs usd ratio heb ik geen mening. Dat kan alle kanten op. De Chinezen zouden het beste af zijn als ze hun munt loskoppelen van de dollar, maar ik heb verder geen kijk op wat voor krachten er daar verder nog spelen.
No bad soldiers under a good leader
Ja klopt, de vorderingen halveren, maar bedenk eens wat die vorderingen nu waard zijn. Amerika is failliet, ze gaan die schuld echt never nooit meer terugbetalen, misschien 20-30 cent op de dollar dat ze er ooit nog voor krijgen.quote:Op zaterdag 12 september 2009 13:43 schreef henkway het volgende:
[..]
Als China de RMB loskoppelt, dan halveren de vorderingen in dollars op de balans, dat kan men niet doen
Ik denk als je een huis heb in China en je verdient in RMB, je al een enorm voordeel hebt op de dollar. Maar die lening in usd met een variabele rente zou bij mij wel een ongemakkelijk gevoel geven. Die rente kan over 2 jaar best eens double digit worden. Maar zoals ik al zei, je huis in china zal de komende 30 jaar waarschijnlijk flink in waarde stijgen en de rmb ook.quote:Op zondag 13 september 2009 09:22 schreef Rbhp het volgende:
[..]
Aha, ik snap je punt, en je hebt helemaal gelijk. Heb nu een lening in usd voor 30 jaar, rente op 2.95, maar die kan niet vastgesteld worden voor een vaste periode, is afhankelijk van de markt, met een discount van .30%. Dan nog denk ik dat het vrij interessant is om op dit moment in usd te lenen.
Bronquote:Wanneer knapt de Chinese zeepbel?
Ik heb het hier al eerder geschreven: de wonderbaarlijke Chinese economische groei, zou wel eens in een een grote knal kunnen eindigen. Het land investeert in overcapaciteit, de overheid pompt honderden miljarden in de economie en het wisselkoersbeleid voert de toch al hoge geldgroei nog verder op.
Over dat laatste punt las ik dit weekend dit stuk op Seeking Alpha. Zijn de valutategoeden van de Chinese Volksbank ‘de grootste zeepbel aller tijden’? Hier een paar zorgwekende stukjes uit het artikel (maar lees het liever helemaal).
China's reserves are growing at about $400 billion per year, roughly adding Norway's economy to their reserve surplus every year.
China's huge arsenal of reserves is increasingly troublesome. William Pesek of Bloomberg has called it a "massive and growing pyramid scheme." China is essentially trapped in its current arrangement; as it buys more US Treasuries, it becomes harder to sell them without causing huge capital losses.
History has not been kind to economies that have amassed such huge foreign currency reserves. According to Professor Pettis, author of China Financial Markets, there have been two prior periods in which a country has amassed such large foreign reserves; the United States in the 1920s and Japan in the 1980s. (…) Both of those periods in time ended very badly. The United States plunged into the Great Depression and Japan has experienced nearly 2 lost decades.
Bron van de bron
Op maandag 30 november 2009 19:30 schreef Ian_Nick het volgende:
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Dit is ook verplichte kost voor al die mensen die zo vast zijn op China:
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
"All great truths begin as blasphemies" - George Bernard Shaw, Ierse vrijdenker (1856 - 1950)
"Religion is regarded by common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Romeinse filosoof (4 BC - 65 AD)
"Religion is regarded by common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Romeinse filosoof (4 BC - 65 AD)
Dat is idd een hele beknopte samenvatting van dit topicquote:Op maandag 8 februari 2010 12:44 schreef Deprater het volgende:
china
The more debt, the better
droogquote:Op maandag 8 februari 2010 13:14 schreef flyguy het volgende:
[..]
Dat is idd een hele beknopte samenvatting van dit topic
"All great truths begin as blasphemies" - George Bernard Shaw, Ierse vrijdenker (1856 - 1950)
"Religion is regarded by common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Romeinse filosoof (4 BC - 65 AD)
"Religion is regarded by common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Romeinse filosoof (4 BC - 65 AD)
quote:China PLA officers urge economic punch against U.S.
BEIJING (Reuters) - Senior Chinese military officers have proposed that their country boost defense spending, adjust PLA deployments, and possibly sell some U.S. bonds to punish Washington for its latest round of arms sales to Taiwan.
The calls for broad retaliation over the planned U.S. weapons sales to the disputed island came from officers at China's National Defence University and Academy of Military Sciences, interviewed by Outlook Weekly, a Chinese-language magazine published by the official Xinhua news agency.
The interviews with Major Generals Zhu Chenghu and Luo Yuan and Senior Colonel Ke Chunqiao appeared in the issue published on Monday.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) plays no role in setting policy for China's foreign exchange holdings. Officials in charge of that area have given no sign of any moves to sell U.S. Treasury bonds over the weapons sales, a move that could alarm markets and damage the value of China's own holdings.
While far from representing fixed government policy, the open demands for retaliation by the PLA officers underscored the domestic pressures on Beijing to deliver on its threats to punish the Obama administration over the arms sales.
"Our retaliation should not be restricted to merely military matters, and we should adopt a strategic package of counter-punches covering politics, military affairs, diplomacy and economics to treat both the symptoms and root cause of this disease," said Luo Yuan, a researcher at the Academy of Military Sciences.
"Just like two people rowing a boat, if the United States first throws the strokes into chaos, then so must we."
Luo said Beijing could "attack by oblique means and stealthy feints" to make its point in Washington.
"For example, we could sanction them using economic means, such as dumping some U.S. government bonds," Luo said.
The warnings from the PLA come after weeks of strains between Washington and Beijing, who have also been at odds over Internet controls and hacking, trade and currency quarrels, and President Barack Obama's planned meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader reviled by China as a "separatist."
MILITARY SPENDING BOOST
Chinese has blasted the United States over the planned $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan unveiled in late January, saying it will sanction U.S. firms that sell weapons to the self-ruled island that Beijing considers a breakaway province of China.
China is likely to unveil its official military budget for 2010 next month, when the Communist Party-controlled national parliament meets for its annual session.
The PLA officers suggested that budget should mirror China's ire toward Washington.
"Clearly propose that due to the threat in the Taiwan Sea, we are increasing military spending," said Luo.
Last year, the government set the official military budget at 480.7 billion yuan ($70.4 billion), a 14.9 percent rise on the one in 2008, continuing a nearly unbroken succession of double-digit increases over more than two decades.
The fresh U.S. arms sales threatened Chinese military installations on the mainland coast facing Taiwan, and "this gives us no choice but to increase defense spending and adjust (military) deployments," said Zhu Chenghu, a major general at China's National Defence University in Beijing.
In 2005, Zhu stirred controversy by suggesting China could use nuclear weapons if the United States intervened militarily in a conflict over Taiwan.
The United States switched official recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979. But the Taiwan Relations Act, passed the same year, guarantees Taiwan a continued supply of defensive weapons.
China has the world's biggest pile of foreign currency reserves, much of it held in U.S. treasury debt. China held $798.9 billion in U.S. Treasuries at end-October.
But any attempt to use that stake against Washington would probably maul the value of China's own dollar-denominated assets.
China has condemned previous arms sales, but has taken little action in response to them. But Luo said the country's growing strength meant that time has passed.
"China's attitude and actions over U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan will be increasingly tough," the magazine cited him as saying. "That is inevitable with rising national strength."
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6183KG20100209
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
quote:China Dumps US Asset Backeds and Corporates
February 9th, 2010
By David Goldman
Dollar-denominated risk assets, including asset-backed securities and corporates, are no longer wanted at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), nor at China’s large commercial banks. The Chinese government has ordered its reserve managers to divest itself of riskier securities and hold only Treasuries and US agency debt with an implicit or explicit government guarantee. This already has been communicated to American securities dealers, according to market participants with direct knowledge of the events.
It is not clear whether China’s motive is simple risk aversion in the wake of a sharp widening of corporate and mortgage spreads during the past two weeks, or whether there also is a political dimension. With the expected termination of the Federal Reserve’s special facility to purchase mortgage-backed securities next month, some asset-backed spreads already have blown out, and the Chinese institutions may simply be trying to get out of the way of a widening. There is some speculation that China’s action has to do with the recent deterioration of US-Chinese relations over arm sales to Taiwan and other issues. That would be an unusual action for the Chinese to take–Beijing does not mix investment and strategic policy–and would be hard to substantiate in any event.
http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1352
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
China heeft papieren weapons of mass destruction. Zou het bluf zijn om Amerika op de knieën te dwingen vanwege Taiwan en Tibet? want ze kunnen eigenlijk ook niet zonder elkaar, als Amerika down gaat, gaat china mee..
Geweldig! De suggestie om de Chinese schuldencrisis op te lossen door Chinese subprimeleningen aan internationale investeerders te verkopen!quote:Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Looming Problem of Local Debt in China-- 1.6 Trillion Dollar and Rising
Did China accomplish the impossible? Did it generate almost 9% growth and maintain low debt to GDP ratio even as its export plummeted by 20%? What about claims that the torrent of investment in China has come without too much leveraging? After spending half a year looking into the debt level of local government investment entities-- some 8000 of them-- my conclusion is no. As in the past, the Chinese government just ordered banks to lend to investment companies set up by both central and local governments. Local governments have fully taken advantage of the green light in late 2008 and borrowed an enormous sums from banks and bond investors starting in late 2008 (well, a large amount even before that). In an editorial in the Asian Wall Street Journal yesterday, I outline some problems with this massive amount of borrowing:
Beijing is no longer sure how much money local investment entities have borrowed from banks and raised from bond and equity investors. The amount, however, must be large. In September, the Chinese press, citing government sources, suggested that these entities have borrowed $880 billion (6 trillion yuan). In a January interview with the Twentieth Century Business Herald, a Chinese newspaper, the vice chairman of the Finance and Economic Committee of the National People's Congress, Yi Zhongliu, revealed that local investment entities borrowed some $735 billion in 2009 alone.
These are mere guesses, however. A National Audit Agency audit conducted late last year uncovered so many problems with the data that Premier Wen Jiabao ordered another large-scale audit of local investment entities. Until a thorough audit is completed and the results announced to the public, no one really knows the total scale of local borrowing.
Given the information vacuum surrounding this issue, I spent half a year collecting data that would allow me to provide an estimate of total local debt (and also for each of China's provinces). Again, in the WSJ piece, I briefly outline my methodology and the results in the piece.
To obtain an independent estimate, I collected data from thousands of sources, including regulatory filings, bond-rating reports and press releases of government-bank cooperative agreements. I estimate local investment entities' borrowing between 2004 and the end of 2009 totals some $1.6 trillion. The data are far from perfect because borrowing by low-level government entities and lending by small banks are difficult to track. Nonetheless, my evidence suggests that the scale of the problem is much larger than previous government estimates. At $1.6 trillion, the size of local debt is roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP and 70% of its foreign-exchange reserves.
So basically, in addition to the 20% of official debt-to-GDP ratio, one has to add an additional 30%. We also have to add other debt that the central government guarantees, such as the nearly 1 trillion RMB in Ministry of Railway bonds and bonds issued by the asset management companies. All of this gives China a high debt to GDP ratio. Also, there are some disturbing implications of this high debt. For one, local governments would have to sell lots and lots of land every year for many years to come to pay interest payment on this debt. Thus, to the extent that there is a real estate bubble today, it must continue for local governments to remain solvent. Regardless of what you believe about Chinese real estate, you have to think that this growth in real estate and land prices must slow or reverse at some point.
I think that the best course of action for the Chinese government is to credibly stop leveraging by local investment companies. Instead of the half measures in place today, a public and stern order should be given to banks to stop lending to all new projects undertaken by these local entities. Other measures should follow:
Since county governments are in the poorest fiscal shape and have the least ability to repay banks, the central government should take over the debt of almost all of the county-level investment vehicles. Although this will increase China's debt-to-GDP ratio significantly, the total would still be low by international standards.
A sudden contraction of lending to local investment vehicles will generate a wave of nonperforming loans, but a greater reliance on market mechanisms can easily solve this problem over the next few years. First, banks will fully recover the debt of the healthiest local entities, which may account for half of total local debt. For the remainder, the government needs to allow banks to directly sell subprime or distressed loans to both foreign and domestic investors
Basically, I think the Chinese government can turn this into a great opportunity for market reform in the financial system and the internationalization of the RMB. However, it has to act soon before local debt gets too large to handle.
http://chinesepolitics.blogspot.com/
Ik zie het al gebeuren, Chinezen die in de USA of in Europa gaan lopen leuren met hun eigen rommelhypotheken
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
Dan gaan die chinezen wel lopen leuren bij banken waar ze grootaandeelhouder van zijn. Denk daarbij bijvoorbeeld aan fortis.
Asl ze ze in mooie pakketjes verpakken waarbij de onderliggende waardes voor niemand zichtbaar zijn dan zullen er heus wel land/investeerders/banken zijn die erin trappen. De VS heeft het ook al een keer voor elkaar gekregen.quote:Op maandag 15 februari 2010 16:43 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Geweldig! De suggestie om de Chinese schuldencrisis op te lossen door Chinese subprimeleningen aan internationale investeerders te verkopen!
Ik zie het al gebeuren, Chinezen die in de USA of in Europa gaan lopen leuren met hun eigen rommelhypotheken
Ik denk zelfs dat er best veel vraag naar zal zijn, in het licht van de aanstaande opwaardering van de Chinese munt. En dollars/euros zijn nog steeds gratis te leen, dus.... tijd voor de Chinese subprime bubblequote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 09:26 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
[..]
Asl ze ze in mooie pakketjes verpakken waarbij de onderliggende waardes voor niemand zichtbaar zijn dan zullen er heus wel land/investeerders/banken zijn die erin trappen. De VS heeft het ook al een keer voor elkaar gekregen.
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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We zijn al iig. hard op weg als je de groei van de huizencijfers in china bekijktquote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 10:20 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Ik denk zelfs dat er best veel vraag naar zal zijn, in het licht van de aanstaande opwaardering van de Chinese munt. En dollars/euros zijn nog steeds gratis te leen, dus.... tijd voor de Chinese subprime bubble
Long live the bubbles
People once tried to make Chuck Norris toilet paper. He said no because Chuck Norris takes crap from NOBODY!!!!
Megan Fox makes my balls look like vannilla ice cream.
Megan Fox makes my balls look like vannilla ice cream.
Echt veelbelovend jaquote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 12:59 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:
[..]
We zijn al iig. hard op weg als je de groei van de huizencijfers in china bekijkt
[ afbeelding ]
Long live the bubbles
Homeownership in China is al 80% (USA is 65% ofzo).
Bevolking gaat dalen vanaf 2025 ofzo (beroepsbevolking al vanaf 2015).
Veel nieuwbouw staat leeg, want puur gebouwd voor speculatie.
Huizen gaan daar slechts een paar decennia mee en de grond is pacht, dus niet van jou!
Sure thing
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Die krotjes gebouwd met ossenstront op het platteland waarin nog steeds 70% van de chinezen wonen tellen ook mee in het huiseigenaarschap?quote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 13:24 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Echt veelbelovend ja
Homeownership in China is al 80% (USA is 65% ofzo).
Bevolking gaat dalen vanaf 2025 ofzo (beroepsbevolking al vanaf 2015).
Veel nieuwbouw staat leeg, want puur gebouwd voor speculatie.
Huizen gaan daar slechts een paar decennia mee en de grond is pacht, dus niet van jou!
Sure thing
Chinezen zijn over het algemeen redelijk gehuisvest is mijn ervaring. Het is geen Indonesie of Filippijnen. Maar natuurlijk is het nog steeds geen hoge standaard en inkomens op het platteland zijn super laag. Het platteland is niet het gebied waar de grote groei plaatsvindt.quote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 13:31 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
[..]
Die krotjes gebouwd met ossenstront op het platteland waarin nog steeds 70% van de chinezen wonen tellen ook mee in het huiseigenaarschap?
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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http://www.nu.nl/economie(...)dschieter-china.html
quote:Witte Huis sust zorg om geldschieter China
Uitgegeven: 18 februari 2010 22:12
Laatst gewijzigd: 18 februari 2010 22:12
WASHINGTON - De Amerikaanse regering heeft donderdag de zorg gerelativeerd, die ontstond toen bekend werd dat China Amerikaanse staatsleningen van de hand heeft gedaan.
© ANPChina is een belangrijke financier van Amerikaanse staatsschuld, maar Japan heeft China verdrongen als grootste bezitter van Amerikaanse staatsleningen.
Dat gebeurde nadat China in december de portefeuille van Amerikaanse staatsleningen per saldo met 34 miljard dollar had verminderd van 789 miljard naar 755 miljard dollar.
Dat werd door sommigen uitgelegd als een protest van China tegen het beleid van de Verenigde Staten, maar Lawrence Summers, een belangrijke economisch adviseur van het Witte Huis, vindt dat daaraan niet zo veel betekenis moet worden toegekend.
''Dit soort cijfers schommelt nogal en bovendien zijn de staatsleningen breed gespreid",' zei hij voor de Amerikaanse televisie.
Op maandag 30 november 2009 19:30 schreef Ian_Nick het volgende:
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Maar als punt bij paaltje komt kan china het zich veroorloven om bubbles op te blazen met al hun reserves en spaargeld. Wij niet.
Helemaal niet, als china al hun dollars dumpt, dan dumpen alle andere landen met dollars hun troep ook. Als China daarnaast hun munt de vrije loop laat, worden alle Chinezen ineens rijk terwijl de Amerikanen straatarm worden (lage dollar, kunnen dus niks meer kopen op de wereldmarkt, hoge rmb en chinezen kunnen alles kopen op de wereldmarkt).quote:Op woensdag 10 februari 2010 11:47 schreef luckyb1rd het volgende:
China heeft papieren weapons of mass destruction. Zou het bluf zijn om Amerika op de knieën te dwingen vanwege Taiwan en Tibet? want ze kunnen eigenlijk ook niet zonder elkaar, als Amerika down gaat, gaat china mee..
Let wel, bovenstaande is geen optie, dit moet vroeg of laat een keertje gebeuren. Cold-Turkey, hoe langer men wacht hoe erger het wordt.
China warns U.S. that 'trade war' will hurt Americans even more
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 21, 2010; 1:53 PM
BEIJING -- China's minister of commerce warned that United States on Sunday that if it launches a "trade war" against China by leveling punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, the United States would suffer the most.
Minister Chen Deming also said what he termed was the U.S. government's "obsession" with China's exchange rate could not be seriously addressed until the U.S. government stopped blocking the export of high-tech products, such as supercomputers and satellites, to China.
"If some congressman insist on labeling China as a currency manipulator and slap punitive tariffs on Chinese products, then the China government will find it impossible not to react," Chen said in an interview with The Washington Post. "If the United States uses the exchange rate to start a new trade war, China will be hurt but the American people and U.S. companies will be hurt even more."
Chen's comments, made in an hour-long interview at the ministry Sunday afternoon, reflect the exasperation inside the Chinese leadership with the U.S. attempt to push China to let the value of its currency, the yuan, rise against the dollar. In addition, Chen's remarks also underscored how China is seeking to use the current trade dispute with the United States to push its own agenda with Washington -- to get rid of or at least lighten the 20-year-old sanctions limiting American exports to China.
President Obama has contended that if China lets the yuan appreciate, U.S. exports would increase. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is authoring legislation that would slap tariffs on Chinese goods if China does not allow its currency to float more freely. On April 15, the Treasury Department is scheduled to release a report on worldwide currencies. Chen said the Chinese government did not want to see Beijing labeled as a "currency manipulator."
Chen, who has studied at Harvard University and at Johns Hopkins University's center at Nanjing University, said he didn't understand what the United States was attempting to achieve by threatening China.
"You're not going to get 1.3 billion Chinese to change by insulting them," he said. "Could it be related to upcoming elections? I don't know. Because economically it makes no sense."
Chen said if the U.S. threats were geared toward limiting imports and decreasing America's trade imbalance that way, it wouldn't work. Perhaps imports from China would fall, but that wouldn't mean that Americans would start producing goods such as telephones and TVs again. "That production isn't going to return to America, that's just not practical," he said. "Globalization has changed all that."
"But if you want to increase your exports, this strategy also won't work," he warned. "How are you going to get China to buy more of your products if you insult it?"
Chen said the best way for the United States to increase its exports to China would be to relax restrictions on the export of high-technology and dual use goods to China. Since 1989, when China launched a crackdown on student-led protests around Tiananmen Square, the United States has limited some exports to China. Chen said those limits amounted to billions of a dollars a year of potential exports to China.
And he added that under such restrictions, talk about a more liberalized exchange regime in China is a non-starter. "If you want to discuss the exchange rate you have to do it under a free trading system," he said, "a system wherein if I want to buy something I can and if you want to sell it you can."
Chen gave a few examples of U.S. restrictions. After the massive earthquake in Sichuan in 2008, China sought to buy engines for a batch of Blackhawk helicopters that the United States had sold China in the 1980s when the two countries were cooperating against the then-Soviet Union. Chen said China was trying to make the purchase so it could use the helicopters to save people injured in the quake, but that the United States rejected the request. (U.S. officials have raised doubts about that China's claim, pointing out that Blackhawk helicopters have a limited carrying capacity.)
China solved its problem by borrowing helicopter engines from Russia and subsequently buying helicopters from Russia, Chen said. The same holds true for satellites, he added. China would rather buy them from the United States, but concerns about export controls have forced it to source satellites from Europe, Chen said.
"This is the reason why our trade balance with the United States is skewed," Chen said. "The United States has strict export controls to China."
And don't expect that China will simply do without these goods, he added. "We're a nation of 1.3 billion people. We graduated 7 million university students a year. We'll either make it ourselves or buy it from somewhere else."
Invoking an old Chinese proverb favored by Chairman Mao, he said, "just because the butcher is dead, doesn't mean we won't be able to eat pork."
Obama came into office saying he was going to review the limits on exports to certain countries. "But," Chen pointed out, "that was more than half a year ago and so far nothing has happened. He's said he wants exports to double in five years but I don't know whom he is going to sell them to."
Chen said that China does not want to see the trade issue politicized. To that end, he said a deputy trade minister, Zhong Shan, would arrive in the United States in the next few days to discuss trade issues with his counterparts at the Department of Commerce and the office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
"Both side needs to stay cool," he said. "We need to sit down and talk."
But if the United States does decide to slap tariffs on China, Chen said, American companies, which account for more than 60 percent of China's exports to the United States, would surely be hurt the most.
"In the end," Chen said, "America is the one that needs to adjust."
While some analysts in the have predicated that China would soon start to let the yuan appreciate, Chen's interview underscored the fact that there is a strong lobby in China opposing any revaluation. One reason why a revaluation would be dangerous for China, Chen said, was that profit margins of Chinese exporters were tiny -- ranging from 1.7 to 2 percentage points.
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 21, 2010; 1:53 PM
BEIJING -- China's minister of commerce warned that United States on Sunday that if it launches a "trade war" against China by leveling punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, the United States would suffer the most.
Minister Chen Deming also said what he termed was the U.S. government's "obsession" with China's exchange rate could not be seriously addressed until the U.S. government stopped blocking the export of high-tech products, such as supercomputers and satellites, to China.
"If some congressman insist on labeling China as a currency manipulator and slap punitive tariffs on Chinese products, then the China government will find it impossible not to react," Chen said in an interview with The Washington Post. "If the United States uses the exchange rate to start a new trade war, China will be hurt but the American people and U.S. companies will be hurt even more."
Chen's comments, made in an hour-long interview at the ministry Sunday afternoon, reflect the exasperation inside the Chinese leadership with the U.S. attempt to push China to let the value of its currency, the yuan, rise against the dollar. In addition, Chen's remarks also underscored how China is seeking to use the current trade dispute with the United States to push its own agenda with Washington -- to get rid of or at least lighten the 20-year-old sanctions limiting American exports to China.
President Obama has contended that if China lets the yuan appreciate, U.S. exports would increase. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is authoring legislation that would slap tariffs on Chinese goods if China does not allow its currency to float more freely. On April 15, the Treasury Department is scheduled to release a report on worldwide currencies. Chen said the Chinese government did not want to see Beijing labeled as a "currency manipulator."
Chen, who has studied at Harvard University and at Johns Hopkins University's center at Nanjing University, said he didn't understand what the United States was attempting to achieve by threatening China.
"You're not going to get 1.3 billion Chinese to change by insulting them," he said. "Could it be related to upcoming elections? I don't know. Because economically it makes no sense."
Chen said if the U.S. threats were geared toward limiting imports and decreasing America's trade imbalance that way, it wouldn't work. Perhaps imports from China would fall, but that wouldn't mean that Americans would start producing goods such as telephones and TVs again. "That production isn't going to return to America, that's just not practical," he said. "Globalization has changed all that."
"But if you want to increase your exports, this strategy also won't work," he warned. "How are you going to get China to buy more of your products if you insult it?"
Chen said the best way for the United States to increase its exports to China would be to relax restrictions on the export of high-technology and dual use goods to China. Since 1989, when China launched a crackdown on student-led protests around Tiananmen Square, the United States has limited some exports to China. Chen said those limits amounted to billions of a dollars a year of potential exports to China.
And he added that under such restrictions, talk about a more liberalized exchange regime in China is a non-starter. "If you want to discuss the exchange rate you have to do it under a free trading system," he said, "a system wherein if I want to buy something I can and if you want to sell it you can."
Chen gave a few examples of U.S. restrictions. After the massive earthquake in Sichuan in 2008, China sought to buy engines for a batch of Blackhawk helicopters that the United States had sold China in the 1980s when the two countries were cooperating against the then-Soviet Union. Chen said China was trying to make the purchase so it could use the helicopters to save people injured in the quake, but that the United States rejected the request. (U.S. officials have raised doubts about that China's claim, pointing out that Blackhawk helicopters have a limited carrying capacity.)
China solved its problem by borrowing helicopter engines from Russia and subsequently buying helicopters from Russia, Chen said. The same holds true for satellites, he added. China would rather buy them from the United States, but concerns about export controls have forced it to source satellites from Europe, Chen said.
"This is the reason why our trade balance with the United States is skewed," Chen said. "The United States has strict export controls to China."
And don't expect that China will simply do without these goods, he added. "We're a nation of 1.3 billion people. We graduated 7 million university students a year. We'll either make it ourselves or buy it from somewhere else."
Invoking an old Chinese proverb favored by Chairman Mao, he said, "just because the butcher is dead, doesn't mean we won't be able to eat pork."
Obama came into office saying he was going to review the limits on exports to certain countries. "But," Chen pointed out, "that was more than half a year ago and so far nothing has happened. He's said he wants exports to double in five years but I don't know whom he is going to sell them to."
Chen said that China does not want to see the trade issue politicized. To that end, he said a deputy trade minister, Zhong Shan, would arrive in the United States in the next few days to discuss trade issues with his counterparts at the Department of Commerce and the office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
"Both side needs to stay cool," he said. "We need to sit down and talk."
But if the United States does decide to slap tariffs on China, Chen said, American companies, which account for more than 60 percent of China's exports to the United States, would surely be hurt the most.
"In the end," Chen said, "America is the one that needs to adjust."
While some analysts in the have predicated that China would soon start to let the yuan appreciate, Chen's interview underscored the fact that there is a strong lobby in China opposing any revaluation. One reason why a revaluation would be dangerous for China, Chen said, was that profit margins of Chinese exporters were tiny -- ranging from 1.7 to 2 percentage points.
Tja ze hebben dan wellicht wat centen, maar ook veelal geen baan meer dus dan loopt het rap af.quote:Op zondag 21 maart 2010 17:14 schreef arjanus het volgende:
[..]
Helemaal niet, als china al hun dollars dumpt, dan dumpen alle andere landen met dollars hun troep ook. Als China daarnaast hun munt de vrije loop laat, worden alle Chinezen ineens rijk terwijl de Amerikanen straatarm worden (lage dollar, kunnen dus niks meer kopen op de wereldmarkt, hoge rmb en chinezen kunnen alles kopen op de wereldmarkt).
Let wel, bovenstaande is geen optie, dit moet vroeg of laat een keertje gebeuren. Cold-Turkey, hoe langer men wacht hoe erger het wordt.
quote:Op zondag 21 maart 2010 20:27 schreef arjanus het volgende:
China warns U.S. that 'trade war' will hurt Americans even more
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
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Bovenop binnenlandse onrust en enorme milieuproblemen....?quote:
Maar als punt bij paaltje komt kan china het zich veroorloven om bubbles op te blazen met al hun reserves en spaargeld. Wij niet.
idd die bubble gaat klappen in 2 jaar en dan zijn opeens ook een hoop ambtenaren de zak omdat hun corrupt verkregen huis geen zak meer waard is.quote:Op zondag 21 maart 2010 22:31 schreef Swetsenegger het volgende:
[..]
Bovenop binnenlandse onrust en enorme milieuproblemen....?
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Zo eens kijken hoe de chinese vrienden gaan reageren op importheffingen in de VS. En of de consumptie van goedkope zooi uit china daardoor afneemt, het lijkt me niet want in de VS heeft men toch zelf geen productiefaciliteiten meer staan om deze zooi te maken.quote:VS zetten druk op Chinese munt
Uitgegeven: 30 september 2010 08:32
Laatst gewijzigd: 30 september 2010 08:32
WASHINGTON - Het Amerikaanse Huis van Afgevaardigden heeft woensdag ingestemd met maatregelen om de Verenigde Staten te beschermen tegen de Chinese ondergewaardeerde munt, de yuan. Met 348 stemmen voor en 79 tegen werd de nieuwe wetgeving aangenomen.
Nu moet de Senaat zich er nog over buigen.
De zogeheten China Currency Bill moet leiden tot importheffingen op Chinese artikelen, zolang China de koers van de munt niet aanpast. Volgens de VS houdt China haar munt opzettelijk ondergewaardeerd, waardoor het land erg makkelijk kan exporteren.
De toevloed aan Chinese artikelen zorgt voor irritaties in de Verenigde Staten, waar de werkloosheid bijna 10 procent bedraagt.
Volgens China schenden de maatregelen de reglementen van de Wereldhandelsorganisatie. De WTO ziet toe op naleving van afspraken over de handel tussen landen.
De angel zit hem in "nu moet de senaat zich er nog over buigen". Want dat gaat nog weken duren.quote:Op donderdag 30 september 2010 08:48 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
[..]
Zo eens kijken hoe de chinese vrienden gaan reageren op importheffingen in de VS. En of de consumptie van goedkope zooi uit china daardoor afneemt, het lijkt me niet want in de VS heeft men toch zelf geen productiefaciliteiten meer staan om deze zooi te maken.
Eigen staatsobligaties kopen.
In en exportbeperkingen opleggen.
Markt beïnvloeden.
Volgende haltes.
Devaluatie van de Dollar
Inflatie voedsel en energie.
Prijzen laag houden.
etc.
In en exportbeperkingen opleggen.
Markt beïnvloeden.
Volgende haltes.
Devaluatie van de Dollar
Inflatie voedsel en energie.
Prijzen laag houden.
etc.
Wie bang is voor morgen, kan niet genieten van vandaag.
Religie is als taal, een basisbehoefte voor een maatschappij, iedereen spreekt zijn eigen dialect en even verder op begrijp je niet meer wat de ander zegt.
Religie is als taal, een basisbehoefte voor een maatschappij, iedereen spreekt zijn eigen dialect en even verder op begrijp je niet meer wat de ander zegt.
Europa doet er ook vrolijk aan mee.quote:Op zaterdag 2 oktober 2010 10:38 schreef Rbhp het volgende:
De US maakt zichzelf kapot, China voelt er niks van.
We produceren haast niets meer, behalve "diensten".
Onderwijs wordt uitgehold.
Ik word er toch wel somber door...
Wat zou hier de motivatie van China zijn? Iemand enig verstand van macroeconomie en politiek hier?quote:ATHENE - China gaat het noodlijdende Griekenland helpen om uit de financiële problemen te komen. Het Aziatische land is onder meer van plan om Griekse staatsobligaties te kopen, zodra Griekenland terugkeert op de financiële markten.
Dat zei de Chinese premier Wen Jiabao zaterdag tijdens zijn bezoek aan Griekenland. Jiabao maakte verder bekend dat China de import van Griekse producten wil bevorderen.
''Als Griekenland in problemen verkeert, is China bereid te helpen'', zei Jibao. De Chinese premier verwacht dat de Griekse economie herstelt in lijn met het herstel van de wereldwijde economie.
Investeren
Jiabao beloofde verder dat hij Chinese bedrijven zal vragen te investeren in Griekenland. Bovendien wil China een bedrag van 5 miljard dollar investeren in een Grieks-Chinees scheepvaartfonds. Het Aziatische land gaat ook meer investeren in de haven van Piraeus.
Het bezoek van Jiabao aan Griekenland maakt deel uit van een reis naar Europa. De Chinese premier brengt ook een bezoek aan België, Italië en Turkije.
Chinezen doorgronden is een kunst op zich. Ik kan wel een gokje wagen.quote:Op zaterdag 2 oktober 2010 19:16 schreef dr_Pieters het volgende:
[..]
Wat zou hier de motivatie van China zijn? Iemand enig verstand van macroeconomie en politiek hier?
Het doet me denken aan een verdeel en heers politiek. China krijgt op deze manier voet aan de grond in Europa (De Atheense haven is niet zo ver van het olierijke middenoosten), zet de Europese Unie met al hun voorwaarden te kakken, en trekt ook nog een kleine lange neus naar Amerika als redder van een natie uit het kamp van de US.
Het lijkt dan inderdaad alleen maar politiek, want Griekenland heeft niets te bieden aan China. Of zou China hun geld gewoon liever investeren in euro's dan in dollars? Maar dan zouden er wel betere opties zijn dan Griekenland "redden" toch?quote:Op zaterdag 2 oktober 2010 19:21 schreef Blandigan het volgende:
[..]
Chinezen doorgronden is een kunst op zich. Ik kan wel een gokje wagen.
Het doet me denken aan een verdeel en heers politiek. China krijgt op deze manier voet aan de grond in Europa (De Atheense haven is niet zo ver van het olierijke middenoosten), zet de Europese Unie met al hun voorwaarden te kakken, en trekt ook nog een kleine lange neus naar Amerika als redder van een natie uit het kamp van de US.
Je zou brazilie en china kunnen hedgenquote:
[..]
Europa doet er ook vrolijk aan mee.
We produceren haast niets meer, behalve "diensten".
Onderwijs wordt uitgehold.
Ik word er toch wel somber door...
I am a Chinese college students, I have a loving father, but I can not help him, he needs to do heart bypass surgery, I can not help him, because the cost of 100,000 or so needed, please help me, lifelong You pray Thank you!
Denk eerder het veilig opslaan van containers waar mineralen in zitten die uit Afrika komen.quote:Op zaterdag 2 oktober 2010 19:16 schreef dr_Pieters het volgende:
[..]
Wat zou hier de motivatie van China zijn? Iemand enig verstand van macroeconomie en politiek hier?
China heeft geld teveel, beetje shoppen in Europa, niks mis mee.
No bad soldiers under a good leader
Ik las vandaag een leuk stukje over Jim Chanos in Fortune magazine. Gelukkig ook (aangepast) online te lezen
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/17/chanos-vs-china/quote:Chanos vs. China
Posted by Fortune
November 17, 2010 3:00 am
The influential short-seller is betting that China's economy is about to implode in a spectacular real estate bust. A lot of people are hoping that Chanos - who called Enron right - is wrong this time.
By Bill Powell, contributor
The scene is a cocktail party high above the Shanghai skyline on a summer night a few months ago. Our host is a Master of the Hedge Fund Universe, one who doesn't want to be identified in the press. We'll call him Pete. Pete comes to China at least twice a year to stay abreast of what's happening in the world's most dynamic economy. He has said, in fact, that if he didn't have kids in school in the U.S., he would consider moving here, so bright is the future. In attendance are other hedge fund investors, venture capitalists, and fund managers, China bulls all. If there is one sure-fire way to ruin the atmosphere on such a pleasant evening, it is this: Ask the crowd what they think of the legendary short-seller James Chanos, CEO of Manhattan-based Kynikos Associates.
So that's what I do.
"Hey," I say to a cluster of people surrounding Pete. "Did you guys see what Jim Chanos said about China on Charlie Rose the other night?"
"No," says an American venture capitalist working in Shanghai. "What did he say?"
"He said, 'China's on an economic treadmill to hell.' "
For over a year now Chanos -- the man who got Enron (among other things) right before anyone else -- has been on a rampage about China. The guy who became famous -- and rich -- shorting companies now says he is shorting the entire country.
When I mention the "treadmill to hell" line to the group in Shanghai, the reaction is the usual one when Chanos's name comes up here: "What does he know about China?" the American VC asks. "Has he ever lived here? Does he have staff here? Does he speak Chinese?"
The answers are no, no, and no. But our host, who counts Chanos as a friend, knows that is not the point. "He did get Enron right," Pete says. "And Tyco. And the whole mortgage bust." He concludes: "Look, he may be wrong, but you need to tell me why he's wrong, not point out that he doesn't live here."
Chanos smiles when I relate the story to him on a recent morning in New York. He knows what a lightning rod he has become. "The only time I have ever been heckled giving an investment presentation was earlier this year at Oxford," he says. "Some Chinese graduate students got so annoyed with me that they started to shout me down, saying the same sort of stuff: 'What do you know about China? How dare you say such things!' "
It's not, of course, just young Chinese people who get worked up on the subject. What Fortune Global 500 company isn't betting that China is the future? For many companies, the possibility that Jim Chanos could be right, that there could be a U.S.-or-Japanese-style bust in China, is beyond scary. It's unthinkable.
Something unprecedented
How did Chanos come to his China obsession? It started in 2009, when he and his team at Kynikos looked at commodity prices and the stocks of big mining companies. "Everything we did in our microwork [on commodities] kept leading us back to China's property market," Chanos says. China's construction boom was driving demand for nearly every basic material.
One day, at a research conference in 2009, Chanos listened to an analyst tick off numbers about the scale of China's building boom. "He said they were building 5 billion square meters of new residential and office space -- 2.6 billion square meters in new office space alone. I said to him, 'You must have the decimal point in the wrong place.' He said no, the numbers are right. So do the math: That's almost 30 billion square feet of new construction. There are 1.3 billion people in China. [In terms of new office space alone] that amounts to about a five-by-five-foot cubicle for every man, woman, and child in the country. That's when it dawned on me that China was embarking on something unprecedented.''
Kynikos didn't post anyone in China. Analysts make occasional research trips, though Chanos himself does not. Given his reputation there, he says, "it's probably best that I don't go. I can just see the New York Post headline: NEW YORK INVESTOR KILLED IN MYSTERIOUS ONE-MAN EARTHQUAKE."
Chanos says that underlying his firm's analysis are data the Chinese government itself reports publicly, such as numbers from the Bureau of Statistics and the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's most powerful economics ministry. In the past year, he says, his team has developed a "proprietary database" that tracks real estate sales in China. "We are not fudging data or just hearing or seeing what we want to hear and see," he insists. And he has a standard retort to those who say you can't know China because you don't live there: "I didn't work at Enron either."
So many empty properties
To understand Chanos's China skepticism -- he calls it "Dubai times 1,000" -- it's worth visiting the Rose and Ginko Valley housing development near Sheshan Mountain, a new suburb outside Shanghai. Block after block after block of villas have gone up. And they are empty.
In the country's largest, most affluent cities -- Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, known as tier-one cities to the real estate cognoscenti -- it is not an unusual phenomenon. There is a lot of new, unoccupied housing in China. Just how much -- and just how much of a concern it should be -- is a central debate.
Fixed-asset investment accounts for more than 60% of China's overall GDP. No other major economy even comes close. And of that fixed investment, slightly less than a quarter is attributable to new real estate investment.
There are reliable data on the amount of new construction under way each year, and on how much is sold. In 2009, for instance, buyers in China purchased 44% more residential floor space than they did in 2008.
Unoccupied houses in a subdivision in the Kangbashi district outside Ordos City, Inner Mongolia
But there are no official estimates yet for the vacancy rates for private housing, for how much of that new housing bought is actually occupied. (The government, signaling that it understands how much it matters, is carrying out a census now to try to get a grip on the question.)
Consider the Sheshan project. A spokesman for the Chongqing-based development company would say only that almost all the units were sold in advance. That, in fact, has been standard-operating procedure in the market for new housing in China. Buyers plunk down money based on a plan, and the developer takes those commitments to the bank to get financing for construction. Very few projects are done on spec.
But that still leaves the question that makes a lot of people nervous -- and Chanos bearish -- about China: Why are so many flats and villas that have been bought and paid for empty? And how could that augur anything but pain for the real estate market in China? And if it means pain for the real estate market, considering that new property sales accounted for 14% of GDP in 2009, doesn't that mean trouble, sooner or later, for the broader economy?
That the real estate market in China is hugely speculative is not in dispute. An investor who lives near me in suburban Shanghai has bought -- count 'em -- 43 units over the past three years. He is still sitting on them, because, he believes, prices will continue going up.
Chanos ticks off reasons for that kind of behavior. Individual Chinese investors are limited in where they can put their renminbi. They can stash it in a standard bank account and receive a negative rate of return, given an inflation rate running at about 3%. They can put the money in the stock market, but equities in China are much more volatile than those in developed markets. Capital controls limit investment opportunities for individuals abroad. So that leaves real estate.
Chanos acknowledges that China's emerging middle class sees real estate as a store of value. To many, buying an apartment in Shanghai or Beijing is like buying a bar of gold. And many -- "too many," Chanos says -- have kept on buying as prices have gone up in the past five years.
Chanos's team, like a lot of other people, is trying to get a grip on just how many empty units there are in China. One prominent bear in China, independent economist Andy Xie, has put the amount at the equivalent of 15% of GDP. Chanos doesn't endorse that specific figure but believes "it's a big problem, and it's getting worse, not better, as more units come onstream."
Chanos: Right or wrong?
There's no question the speculative fervor in real estate has captured the Chinese government's attention. Last spring Beijing moved to stiffen financing requirements, and it is trying to limit the number of units any single investor can buy to two. For a time that did cool off the market. But Chanos points out that prices are rising again, and more than 30 million new apartments, villas, and houses are due to come onto the market next year. If the government intensifies its efforts to try to limit speculation, the market may turn down sooner than most think, Chanos believes. And if the government doesn't intensify the effort against speculators, "they'll just be climbing up a few more rungs on the diving board." Either way, he says, "they're going to end up in the same place." Consider Dubai, he says: At the peak of its building boom, there were 240 square meters of property under development for every $1 million in national GDP. In urban China today that ratio is four times as high. "We've seen this movie before," he says. Whether it was Dubai a couple of years ago, Thailand and Indonesia during the Asian crisis of the late '90s, or Tokyo circa 1989, "this always ends badly."
Chanos puts his money where his mouth is. Late last month he went before the Grant's Interest Rate Observer conference at the Plaza Hotel in Manhattan and not only made his case for being bearish on China, but ticked off individual stocks that he is shorting. Poly HK is one: a real estate developer that trades on the Hong Kong exchange (and a company that Goldman Sachs (GS) recommended as a buy as recently as last month). It's a state-owned company that started out as a defense contractor but, enticed by the real estate boom, has plunged in as a property developer. Chanos is also short the listing for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. And he believes that China Merchants Bank, one of Beijing's largest, is deeply exposed to the financing affiliates of local governments throughout China. About 11% of its total loans outstanding, according to Chanos, are to these local financing affiliates (known as local government funding vehicles, or LGFVs).
Why does that matter? A key prop under the bullish case for China's real estate market is lack of leverage. The financial system is simply not going to be at risk, the thinking goes, even if there is a real estate bust. But Chanos believes the LGFVs are deeply exposed to property development, and that if there is a turn in the market, the pain felt by China Merchants Bank, as well as others, will be considerable. Victor Shih, a professor at Northwestern University, did a study earlier this year and concluded that these LGFVs accumulated $1.6 trillion in new debt from 2004 to 2009. As Chanos points out, China's own bank regulator has recently been moving to rein in local borrowing, after concluding that 26% of the outstanding debt is "high risk."
A downturn in China would have serious ripple effects throughout the world. Chanos believes the iron ore producers, and Brazilian giant Vale (VALE) in particular, will be victims. China's huge capital investment has required vast amounts of steel and other metals, and that in turn has made it the largest market in the world for iron ore. Vale traded in early November near a 52-week high, and its CEO, Roger Agnelli, recently boasted that he has the biggest fleet of ships in the world outside of the U.S. Navy. If you take Chanos's view of the world, that's not a good thing. As he put it, "They're going to have a lot of empty ships on their hands."
A case for the bulls
Short-sellers are generally derided until and unless they turn out to be right. So it is now. Sentiment about China is so optimistic that people think Chanos either has lost his mind or is somehow involved in a giant hip fake and can't really be serious. (For the record, he won't say how much of Kynikos's more than $1 billion under management is in play in China-related positions.) "Why do I go public with this?" he asks. "For the same reason I did with Enron. All the public ever hears is the longs. I have a case to make, and I have no hesitation making it. These are our convictions about China, and we're acting on them. So argue with me. We want to hear the counterarguments. Believe me, we do.''
Plenty of people are willing to take him up. The China bulls' case has many parts, but the most important is leverage -- or rather, the lack of it. Consider the gentleman -- his name is Cheng Yue Shi -- who told me that he owned 43 flats in and around Shanghai. He doesn't rent out any of them -- which is not uncommon in China; rents are cheap, and many owners therefore believe the time and hassle of being a landlord isn't worth it. And of the 43 units he owns, he paid for every single one of them -- not a single mortgage involved. According to a recent study by CLSA Asia Pacific Securities, the use of mortgages is increasing in China, but only 40% of all houses purchased are debt-financed. Even when they are, Chinese buyers typically have to put down 30% or more of the sales price.
No liar loans here. No securitization of mortgages. This is housing finance done the old-fashioned way: The buyers have skin in the game. The lack of leverage throughout the system should mean that even if there is a significant decline in real estate prices, the financial system in China is unlikely to be crippled.
Chanos argues that there is more debt held off the books in local financing vehicles than the bulls care to admit, and that bad loans, once the real estate market turns down, will pile up more quickly than most think. This is an area in which government regulators in China have acknowledged they need to get more information into the marketplace, but even with what's known publicly, the bulls simply disagree with Chanos. Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gave- Kal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economic consultancy, says the central government is already forcing local governments to scale back borrowing, and in fact has ordered closed several LGFVs that did not have enough revenue to service their loans from banks. "China's government debt," Kroeber says, "is clearly manageable."
The second component of the bullish case is straightforward: They say the combination of price spikes and overbuilding in Beijing and Shanghai simply gets too much attention. Andy Rothman, the chief China economist for CLSA, notes that the total amount of floor space bought in smaller, tier-three cities (where nearly 357 million people -- or 57% of China's urban population -- reside) has been slowly increasing as a percentage of the national total. And in those cities prices are up to 70% lower than they are in the four richest cities in the country: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. "There is no national housing bubble," Rothman asserts.
The guy who'll get China over the goal line
Personal income, moreover, continues to rise in China, as does consumption. In the first half of this year, real urban disposable income rose by more than 6%, on top of a 10% rise last year. "Rising incomes still support middle-class affordability," Rothman says. As a result, "it's the world's best consumption story."
Chanos's response to those two basic points is forthright: "It's an economy on steroids," he says. Just as Japan in the 1980s grew largely on the back of capital investment, eventually it has to stop. "Japan became a capital-destruction machine, and that's what China is now. You have an economy that's 60% fixed-asset investment, and not even in the developing world is that sustainable. It wasn't in Japan; it wasn't in Korea."
Chanos is agnostic as to the timing of when a serious China bust might come, nor does he have specific ideas as to what might trigger a downturn. He just believes it's coming. One possibility -- reflected by a steep stock market decline on Nov. 12 -- is that accelerating inflation may force China's central bank to tighten credit more quickly than expected, putting additional pressure on real estate developers.
I tell him toward the end of an interview that I, too, am invested in China, that in fact I'm long real estate. My wife and I bought a modest house in suburban Shanghai a few years ago, and, on paper anyway, we've done pretty well. Similar houses in our area have sold for considerably more than what we paid. He smiles and says, "Well, good luck with that."
In truth, I am still, relatively speaking, a China bull. But I live near the Rose and Ginko Valley development, and even before meeting Chanos, I must admit, each time I drove by it at night, I secretly wished I would see a few lights on. I still do -- now more than ever.
dit past hier ook goed bij:quote:Op maandag 6 december 2010 23:53 schreef tjoptjop het volgende:
Ik las vandaag een leuk stukje over Jim Chanos in Fortune magazine. Gelukkig ook (aangepast) online te lezen
[..]
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/17/chanos-vs-china/
http://historysquared.com(...)or-wears-no-clothes/
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
zou me niks verbazen want nu wordt de VS langzaam maar zeker als een leugenachtig land ontmaskert die zelfs zijn bondgenoten jarenlang heeft voorgelogen en beduvelt voor eigen gewin, en nu zich als een verongelijkte opstelt.quote:
Zoiets zouden de amerikanen zien als een directe oorlogsdreiging.
..................
Yvonne schreef op maandag 31 oktober 2011 @
13:59:43 in DEF SC #282 aan AchJa & Co
Vanaf hier en nu stopt het in DEF én op FOK!
Ik wil hier een normale SC zonder gebitch!
13:59:43 in DEF SC #282 aan AchJa & Co
Vanaf hier en nu stopt het in DEF én op FOK!
Ik wil hier een normale SC zonder gebitch!
Het heeft echt bizarre vormen aangenomen. Zeker als je het ook nog eens vergelijkt met bekende huizenbubbels als Japan jaren 90 en VS recentelijk. Dat kannatuurlijk niet goed gaan.quote:
[..]
dit past hier ook goed bij:
http://historysquared.com(...)or-wears-no-clothes/
Ben benieuwd wie er straks voor het vuurpeleton moeten verschijnen
Bijzonder interessant stuk idd. Zitten er nog fokkers in China die dit soort verhalen first hand kunnen bevestigen?quote:
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/17/chanos-vs-china/
Please Move The Deer Crossing Sign
Genoeg foto's en filmpjes van die spooksteden te vinden in elk geval.quote:
[..]
Bijzonder interessant stuk idd. Zitten er nog fokkers in China die dit soort verhalen first hand kunnen bevestigen?
Ik kan me zo 123 ook nog herinneren dat er een topic hier was over het grootste winkelcentrum ter wereld...... leeg
preciesquote:
Indd.. als ze hun marktpositie kwijtraken en verovereren ze het maar weer terug met nuke's. Zijn net kleine kinderen op de basisschool die de baas willen blijven
en met Wikileaks wordt dat andermaal onderschreven hoe hypocriet die yanks eigenlijk zijn. 
Yvonne schreef op maandag 31 oktober 2011 @
13:59:43 in DEF SC #282 aan AchJa & Co
Vanaf hier en nu stopt het in DEF én op FOK!
Ik wil hier een normale SC zonder gebitch!
13:59:43 in DEF SC #282 aan AchJa & Co
Vanaf hier en nu stopt het in DEF én op FOK!
Ik wil hier een normale SC zonder gebitch!
quote:Op woensdag 8 december 2010 14:49 schreef rubje het volgende:
[..]
precies
Je denkt dat Chinezen anders zijn??
idd die naieviteit. Ik denk dat de Chinezen nog wel erger zijn. Hoeven immers geen verantwoording af te leggen.quote:
[..]
Outlook 2011 & the Next Decade: China, Is The Smart Money Right?
By Dian L. Chu, EconForecast
China has been ranked as the top growing country among the G20 since 2001 and is expected to retain that title for at least another five years (See Growth Chart). However, the news coming out of China for the past three months has not been good. It is looking more and more that it is not a question of if China is a bubble and going to burst, but when.
The country has major infrastructure issues, troubling population dynamics, poorly aligned employment outcomes, inflation problems, a real estate bubble, an opaque and potentially insolvent banking system (had mark-to-market accounting been applied), geo-political problems with North Korea and Taiwan, and an underperforming stock market in 2010 (see stock comparison chart).
Smart Money Rushing Out
While the hot money is flooding into China, the smart local money is doing everything they can to get their money outside of China, which partly explains why Shanghai SE Composite has underperformed other markets for the past year or so (see Comparison Chart).
The many issues of China could conspire to become the biggest train wreck waiting to happen, and potentially dwarf any little budget problems in Europe by a factor of ten.
Big Trouble In Big China
China has a population related societal structural problem. The nation has tried to utilize the vast manpower to its advantage over the last two decades building a powerhouse manufacturing economy through the availability of low cost workers, which supplied the world with lower cost goods.
Nevertheless, the harsh reality is that the nation's infrastructure, quality jobs, food, and overall resources are too scarce to support such mass population, while achieving the government`s goal of a smooth transition to a developed middle class to sustain an internal demand model going forward.
If you think having riots in Greece over the pension retirement age being raised is bad, just wait till riots breaking out in Beijing and other cities over a 90 cent bowl of noodle soup now costing four dollars due to food shortages, and a runaway inflation problem.
Loose Lending = Non-performing Projects
This is only reinforced by some of the news events taking place over the last three months. Let`s start with the raising of banks reserve requirements by the central bank, which is the sixth such increase in 2010.
These measures are meant to curb the excess lending which has fueled much of the overbuilding and real estate speculation occurred over the past two years as China`s central bank initially wanted to avert a recession by artificially creating demand for workers and construction projects to replace lagging demand from the developed economies.
The problem is that too much lending has occurred, and bad lending at that. Because of the cheap available credit, now you have cement companies and manufacturing firms getting bank loans to invest in endeavors such as real estate, which is outside of their core expertise and competency.
Real Estate Misery Loves Company – China & Spain
The result is a bunch of excess inventory and poorly thought-out construction projects which have no means of recouping the initial investment needed to repay the bank loans.
This practice is similar to Spain`s situation now where they have entire uninhabited building complexes that have yet to be marked to market, and will probably ultimately be demolished. But at least in Spain, even though it was a construction boom, it was engineered by developers in Spain, and not by some manufacturing outfits like those in China.
So, multiply the bad business project factor by ten and you get an understanding of the magnitude of bad loans on the books of Chinese banks. The problem is being further exacerbated by the practice similar to Spain`s of banks making additional loans to the businesses just so that they can then turnaround and pay back the interest owed on the original loans.
The only way this would work out is if these projects magically develop revenue streams. Unfortunately, in the case of Spain, a 20% unemployment rate, coupled with a still overvalued housing market in which prices still need to come down significantly, would suggest that by the time the Spanish economy recovers enough to support the excess inventory, the abandoned projects are run down and uninhabitable.
A similar scenario could play out in China as well.
True Smart Money Wary of the Write-off Domino
Furthermore, China`s practice of overbuilding at the height of real estate valuations makes even haircuts on loan write-offs an untenable practice for banks, and by further throwing good money after bad, the ultimate mark- to-market effect could be catastrophic for Chinese Banks.
This is the main reason all the major Chinese banks have gone to the market in 2010 to raise more capital before investors wise up to the underlying deficits these banks face, as these bad loans eventually would need to be written off the books.
Victor Shih, a Northwestern University professor estimates that Chinese local governments borrowed some 11.4 trillion renminbi at the end of 2009, and that local government financing loans to be roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP.
Shih reckons the most likely scenario over the next few years is that there would be increases of non-performing loans ratio from local governments. This would require a large scale of recapitalization of the Chinese banking system, which would eat up a large share of China's foreign exchange reserves and possibly slow down growth.
I do believe Beijing is quite capable of a few bailouts and surviving a widespread banking crisis, but this most definitely will not bode well for the financial markets. That's most likely why you see insiders removing capital from direct exposure to the inevitable re-pricing that will happen throughout Chinese markets from real estate to the stock market.
This can be seen at this early stage by the underperformance of the Chinese stock market compared to other global markets. Remember, foreigners cannot invest directly in these markets, so these capital outflows are truly the smart money.
Logistic Gridlock Crimping the Middle Class
Next let`s look at the recent news regarding a severe cutback in automobile registrations in Beijing to 240,000 in 2011 from 700,000 registered in 2010 by the municipal government. Other large cities in China are bound to follow. This is most likely related to the reported 9-day traffic jam on the Beijing-Tibet expressway in August, and other extended traffic jams throughout China in 2010.
China is trying to build infrastructure projects after the fact; whereas with proper central planning these should have been established far ahead of the massive transition from a rural, agricultural based populous to that of a modern, large city based business and manufacturing concentration.
Simply put, it is impossible for all the Chinese citizens who want and can afford automobiles to be able to own and utilize this form of transport without a total breakdown in the transportation system. We are seeing the early stages of complete and counterproductive gridlock in the transportation system of China, and it is only going to get worse over the next decade.
No Jobs for College Grads
For all the talk about how China graduates more engineers each year, and other college educated young people who have strong backgrounds in the hard sciences than most developed nations combined, this is actually another sign of problems to come over the next decade in China.
China`s wealth and emergence into the second largest business economy hasn`t been built around the need for these types of mind and skill set. So literally you have a large mismatch between the types of available jobs in China, that are supported by the heavy manufacturing and construction intensive focus of the past twenty years, to that of the recently educated pool of graduates who have grown in sizable numbers over the past five years.
The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste
This results in a large human asset class that China is currently wasting, as most of the newly educated workforce is working in jobs which require little or no advanced education at the university level. So you have highly educated university graduates in areas like engineering and accounting working low level service and sales jobs that pay less than many manufacturing jobs.
In short, there are too many highly educated Chinese citizens graduating each year for the number of jobs available needing their skill set because China`s economic model isn`t built around these type of jobs. This type of misaligned employment outcomes never ends well; it usually manifests itself in increased civil and social unrest.
8% Inflation in 2011
The next major challenge for China is a skyrocketing inflation, which at its root is the fact that there are too many people chasing too few resources. This fundamental flaw in population dynamics underpins many of the problems that China faces going forward.
Recent CPI data for November illustrates the inflation problem in China with a reading of 5.1% from a year ago comparison, this is up from a 4.4% reading for the previous month. Couple this with the latest 4% hike in fuel prices in China because of rising oil prices, you could expect future CPI and PPI reports to reflect even higher rates of inflation.
For now, most of the year over year spike has revolved around higher food prices as energy has mainly been flat for 2010 thanks mostly to government subsidies. Now that energy prices have entered the picture, China will start to experience even more inflation pressures in 2011.
Furthermore, with the undervalued yuan pegged to the dollar, it is only getting worse for China in 2011 due to Fed's QE2 pressures on the dollar. The real inflation rate for Chinese citizens for 2011 will probably approach 8% next year.
An Asian Contagion by China?
This escalating inflation concern is further compounded by Beijing's lack of decisive action to combat the problem by delaying a much needed currency appreciation, and hiking interest rates in a timely fashion. There is no getting around the fact that these two things need to occur as soon as possible.
By the time the Chinese government is forced to implement these tightening tools, the damage to the economy is most likely already done. The longer China delays the inevitable serious tightening measures, the harder the economic crash that will occur in the aftermath of these policy changes. And it is unlikely to end well. The resultant impact will probably take the rest of the Asian economies down with it – an Asian Contagion scenario.
History Repeats Itself
Eventually central planners and finance ministers around the world might start to understand that policies which lead to bubbles being formed in the first place are counterproductive in the long run. But until that lesson is learned, it seems like we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Right now, there are more and more signs coming out of China that all is not well with its economy, and the likelihood of a more severe downturn in the future is a distinct possibility, unless its policy makers take decisive and prudent actions to minimize the damage of a hard landing.
By Dian L. Chu, EconForecast
China has been ranked as the top growing country among the G20 since 2001 and is expected to retain that title for at least another five years (See Growth Chart). However, the news coming out of China for the past three months has not been good. It is looking more and more that it is not a question of if China is a bubble and going to burst, but when.
The country has major infrastructure issues, troubling population dynamics, poorly aligned employment outcomes, inflation problems, a real estate bubble, an opaque and potentially insolvent banking system (had mark-to-market accounting been applied), geo-political problems with North Korea and Taiwan, and an underperforming stock market in 2010 (see stock comparison chart).
Smart Money Rushing Out
While the hot money is flooding into China, the smart local money is doing everything they can to get their money outside of China, which partly explains why Shanghai SE Composite has underperformed other markets for the past year or so (see Comparison Chart).
The many issues of China could conspire to become the biggest train wreck waiting to happen, and potentially dwarf any little budget problems in Europe by a factor of ten.
Big Trouble In Big China
China has a population related societal structural problem. The nation has tried to utilize the vast manpower to its advantage over the last two decades building a powerhouse manufacturing economy through the availability of low cost workers, which supplied the world with lower cost goods.
Nevertheless, the harsh reality is that the nation's infrastructure, quality jobs, food, and overall resources are too scarce to support such mass population, while achieving the government`s goal of a smooth transition to a developed middle class to sustain an internal demand model going forward.
If you think having riots in Greece over the pension retirement age being raised is bad, just wait till riots breaking out in Beijing and other cities over a 90 cent bowl of noodle soup now costing four dollars due to food shortages, and a runaway inflation problem.
Loose Lending = Non-performing Projects
This is only reinforced by some of the news events taking place over the last three months. Let`s start with the raising of banks reserve requirements by the central bank, which is the sixth such increase in 2010.
These measures are meant to curb the excess lending which has fueled much of the overbuilding and real estate speculation occurred over the past two years as China`s central bank initially wanted to avert a recession by artificially creating demand for workers and construction projects to replace lagging demand from the developed economies.
The problem is that too much lending has occurred, and bad lending at that. Because of the cheap available credit, now you have cement companies and manufacturing firms getting bank loans to invest in endeavors such as real estate, which is outside of their core expertise and competency.
Real Estate Misery Loves Company – China & Spain
The result is a bunch of excess inventory and poorly thought-out construction projects which have no means of recouping the initial investment needed to repay the bank loans.
This practice is similar to Spain`s situation now where they have entire uninhabited building complexes that have yet to be marked to market, and will probably ultimately be demolished. But at least in Spain, even though it was a construction boom, it was engineered by developers in Spain, and not by some manufacturing outfits like those in China.
So, multiply the bad business project factor by ten and you get an understanding of the magnitude of bad loans on the books of Chinese banks. The problem is being further exacerbated by the practice similar to Spain`s of banks making additional loans to the businesses just so that they can then turnaround and pay back the interest owed on the original loans.
The only way this would work out is if these projects magically develop revenue streams. Unfortunately, in the case of Spain, a 20% unemployment rate, coupled with a still overvalued housing market in which prices still need to come down significantly, would suggest that by the time the Spanish economy recovers enough to support the excess inventory, the abandoned projects are run down and uninhabitable.
A similar scenario could play out in China as well.
True Smart Money Wary of the Write-off Domino
Furthermore, China`s practice of overbuilding at the height of real estate valuations makes even haircuts on loan write-offs an untenable practice for banks, and by further throwing good money after bad, the ultimate mark- to-market effect could be catastrophic for Chinese Banks.
This is the main reason all the major Chinese banks have gone to the market in 2010 to raise more capital before investors wise up to the underlying deficits these banks face, as these bad loans eventually would need to be written off the books.
Victor Shih, a Northwestern University professor estimates that Chinese local governments borrowed some 11.4 trillion renminbi at the end of 2009, and that local government financing loans to be roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP.
Shih reckons the most likely scenario over the next few years is that there would be increases of non-performing loans ratio from local governments. This would require a large scale of recapitalization of the Chinese banking system, which would eat up a large share of China's foreign exchange reserves and possibly slow down growth.
I do believe Beijing is quite capable of a few bailouts and surviving a widespread banking crisis, but this most definitely will not bode well for the financial markets. That's most likely why you see insiders removing capital from direct exposure to the inevitable re-pricing that will happen throughout Chinese markets from real estate to the stock market.
This can be seen at this early stage by the underperformance of the Chinese stock market compared to other global markets. Remember, foreigners cannot invest directly in these markets, so these capital outflows are truly the smart money.
Logistic Gridlock Crimping the Middle Class
Next let`s look at the recent news regarding a severe cutback in automobile registrations in Beijing to 240,000 in 2011 from 700,000 registered in 2010 by the municipal government. Other large cities in China are bound to follow. This is most likely related to the reported 9-day traffic jam on the Beijing-Tibet expressway in August, and other extended traffic jams throughout China in 2010.
China is trying to build infrastructure projects after the fact; whereas with proper central planning these should have been established far ahead of the massive transition from a rural, agricultural based populous to that of a modern, large city based business and manufacturing concentration.
Simply put, it is impossible for all the Chinese citizens who want and can afford automobiles to be able to own and utilize this form of transport without a total breakdown in the transportation system. We are seeing the early stages of complete and counterproductive gridlock in the transportation system of China, and it is only going to get worse over the next decade.
No Jobs for College Grads
For all the talk about how China graduates more engineers each year, and other college educated young people who have strong backgrounds in the hard sciences than most developed nations combined, this is actually another sign of problems to come over the next decade in China.
China`s wealth and emergence into the second largest business economy hasn`t been built around the need for these types of mind and skill set. So literally you have a large mismatch between the types of available jobs in China, that are supported by the heavy manufacturing and construction intensive focus of the past twenty years, to that of the recently educated pool of graduates who have grown in sizable numbers over the past five years.
The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste
This results in a large human asset class that China is currently wasting, as most of the newly educated workforce is working in jobs which require little or no advanced education at the university level. So you have highly educated university graduates in areas like engineering and accounting working low level service and sales jobs that pay less than many manufacturing jobs.
In short, there are too many highly educated Chinese citizens graduating each year for the number of jobs available needing their skill set because China`s economic model isn`t built around these type of jobs. This type of misaligned employment outcomes never ends well; it usually manifests itself in increased civil and social unrest.
8% Inflation in 2011
The next major challenge for China is a skyrocketing inflation, which at its root is the fact that there are too many people chasing too few resources. This fundamental flaw in population dynamics underpins many of the problems that China faces going forward.
Recent CPI data for November illustrates the inflation problem in China with a reading of 5.1% from a year ago comparison, this is up from a 4.4% reading for the previous month. Couple this with the latest 4% hike in fuel prices in China because of rising oil prices, you could expect future CPI and PPI reports to reflect even higher rates of inflation.
For now, most of the year over year spike has revolved around higher food prices as energy has mainly been flat for 2010 thanks mostly to government subsidies. Now that energy prices have entered the picture, China will start to experience even more inflation pressures in 2011.
Furthermore, with the undervalued yuan pegged to the dollar, it is only getting worse for China in 2011 due to Fed's QE2 pressures on the dollar. The real inflation rate for Chinese citizens for 2011 will probably approach 8% next year.
An Asian Contagion by China?
This escalating inflation concern is further compounded by Beijing's lack of decisive action to combat the problem by delaying a much needed currency appreciation, and hiking interest rates in a timely fashion. There is no getting around the fact that these two things need to occur as soon as possible.
By the time the Chinese government is forced to implement these tightening tools, the damage to the economy is most likely already done. The longer China delays the inevitable serious tightening measures, the harder the economic crash that will occur in the aftermath of these policy changes. And it is unlikely to end well. The resultant impact will probably take the rest of the Asian economies down with it – an Asian Contagion scenario.
History Repeats Itself
Eventually central planners and finance ministers around the world might start to understand that policies which lead to bubbles being formed in the first place are counterproductive in the long run. But until that lesson is learned, it seems like we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Right now, there are more and more signs coming out of China that all is not well with its economy, and the likelihood of a more severe downturn in the future is a distinct possibility, unless its policy makers take decisive and prudent actions to minimize the damage of a hard landing.
Escaping from a liquidity trap may be impossible, much like light trapped in a black hole.
Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:27 schreef Perrin het volgende: En net als van voetbal, heeft iedereen verstand van macro-economie
Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:27 schreef Perrin het volgende: En net als van voetbal, heeft iedereen verstand van macro-economie
Ze verhogen de rente ook, dat kan nog interessant worden. 
Escaping from a liquidity trap may be impossible, much like light trapped in a black hole.
Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:27 schreef Perrin het volgende: En net als van voetbal, heeft iedereen verstand van macro-economie
Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:27 schreef Perrin het volgende: En net als van voetbal, heeft iedereen verstand van macro-economie
Ik kwam ergens deze link tegen, iemand die actief geweest is met google earth en lege chinese steden heeft gezocht.
http://www.businessinside(...)ities-2010-12?slop=1
http://www.businessinside(...)ities-2010-12?slop=1
Tsja, de overheid legt targets op dat de economie jaarlijks 12% ofzo moet groeien en dat kunnen ze alleen maar bereiken door te blijven bouwen. Of je die gebouwen nu nodig hebt of niet.
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Daarnaast wil elke provinciebobo het beter doen dan zijn concurrent, dus worden er ook zelf opgelegde targets bovenop die van het centrale planburo gelegd.
Wat tot gevolg heeft dat de ene provincie met de andere concurreert ipv met het buitenland en ze nu bijvoorbeeld enorme overcapaciteit hebben in pc assemblage.
Wat tot gevolg heeft dat de ene provincie met de andere concurreert ipv met het buitenland en ze nu bijvoorbeeld enorme overcapaciteit hebben in pc assemblage.
'Chinese economie riskeert harde landing'
AMSTERDAM - De Chinese economie leunt te veel op investeringen in vastgoed, wat na 2013 'een harde landing kan veroorzaken'.
Foto: NU.nl/Chris Heijmans
Dat stelt econoom Nouriel Roubini, die als een van de weinigen ook de wereldwijde economische crisis wist te voorspellen.
De investeringen in China zijn gestegen tot 50 procent van het bruto binnenlands product. "Dat betekent dat je uiteindelijk twee problemen zult hebben: kredieten die niet functioneren en een enorme overcapaciteit", aldus Roubini zaterdag in Singapore, zo meldt Bloomberg.
Bankencrisis
Eerder berekende kredietbeoordelingsbureau Fitch Ratings al dat China zestig procent kans heeft op een bankencrisis halverwege 2013, als gevolg van de hoeveelheid leningen en stijgende vastgoedprijzen.
Ondanks door de overheid ingestelde prijzenplafonds, hogere kredieteisen voor banken en een beperking van de aankoop van tweede huizen staan de vastgoedprijzen op recordhoogte.
Maatregelen
Volgens Roubini moeten de autoriteiten maatregelen nemen om de prijzen te controleren, de rente verder op te voeren en inflatie tegen te gaan.
"De beleidsuitdaging voor volgend jaar is om de groei van acht tot negen procent te handhaven en de inflatie te verminderen", aldus Roubini. "Na volgend jaar is de grotere uitdaging om investeringen in vaste activa en spaartegoeden te beperken en consumptie te verhogen."
De econoom zei verder dat er bewijs is voor een verdere vertraging van de wereldwijde economische groei en dat de olieprijs kan oplopen tot wel 150 dollar per vat, als de onrust in olieproducerende naties blijft bestaan.
-------------------------------
China is er nog niet..... nog lange niet.
AMSTERDAM - De Chinese economie leunt te veel op investeringen in vastgoed, wat na 2013 'een harde landing kan veroorzaken'.
Foto: NU.nl/Chris Heijmans
Dat stelt econoom Nouriel Roubini, die als een van de weinigen ook de wereldwijde economische crisis wist te voorspellen.
De investeringen in China zijn gestegen tot 50 procent van het bruto binnenlands product. "Dat betekent dat je uiteindelijk twee problemen zult hebben: kredieten die niet functioneren en een enorme overcapaciteit", aldus Roubini zaterdag in Singapore, zo meldt Bloomberg.
Bankencrisis
Eerder berekende kredietbeoordelingsbureau Fitch Ratings al dat China zestig procent kans heeft op een bankencrisis halverwege 2013, als gevolg van de hoeveelheid leningen en stijgende vastgoedprijzen.
Ondanks door de overheid ingestelde prijzenplafonds, hogere kredieteisen voor banken en een beperking van de aankoop van tweede huizen staan de vastgoedprijzen op recordhoogte.
Maatregelen
Volgens Roubini moeten de autoriteiten maatregelen nemen om de prijzen te controleren, de rente verder op te voeren en inflatie tegen te gaan.
"De beleidsuitdaging voor volgend jaar is om de groei van acht tot negen procent te handhaven en de inflatie te verminderen", aldus Roubini. "Na volgend jaar is de grotere uitdaging om investeringen in vaste activa en spaartegoeden te beperken en consumptie te verhogen."
De econoom zei verder dat er bewijs is voor een verdere vertraging van de wereldwijde economische groei en dat de olieprijs kan oplopen tot wel 150 dollar per vat, als de onrust in olieproducerende naties blijft bestaan.
-------------------------------
China is er nog niet..... nog lange niet.
China zal niet zo maar uithalen richting de Amerikaanse dollar en de Verenigde Staten van Noord-Amerika. Alles heeft bij China een dubbele agenda en ik zou,hoe mooi het ook allemaal klinkt,niet teveel op het China concept inzetten want als er iets is wat de afgelopen tientallen jaren wel is gebleken dan is dat de Amerikaanse economie er altijd weer bovenop komt.quote:Op maandag 8 december 2008 08:22 schreef Netstorm het volgende:
Indd.. als ze hun marktpositie kwijtraken en verovereren ze het maar weer terug met nuke's. Zijn net kleine kinderen op de basisschool die de baas willen blijven
Big fat bubble.quote:Moody's: schuld $540 miljard onderschat, gevaar voor Chinese banken
De schuld van lokale overheden ligt 3,5 biljoen yuan, of $540 miljard, hoger dan accountants hadden geschat. Dat kan banken met veel grotere verliezen opzadelen, hetgeen hun ratings in gevaar kan brengen.
Is Wall St. te koop denk je?quote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 07:54 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Als China slim is doen ze niet moeilijk maar kopen gewoon Wallstreet op. + de AEX. Daar hebben ze toch veel meer aan!
Je kan je ook afvragen of je wel boos moet zijn...quote:
Heb het eerste artilel gelezen, op zich wel bekend maar toch de moeite waard van het lezen
[..]
dit wist ik niet en verbaasd me dan ook.
Je kan je afvragen op wie je boos moet zijn: op de USA omdat ze slim gebruik maken van hun dollar. Of de sukkels die slaafs achter die dollar aan blijven lopen. Geef de amerikanen eens ongelijk.
Dat de Chinese munt niet internationaal verhandelbaar is heeft trouwens een goede reden.
Jij denkt dat goud ook uit een printer komt?quote:
[..]
en goud is maar goud. Niets anders dan papiergeld eigenlijk.
Je zou je kunnen afvragen of dat dan 'wetenschap' was...quote:
[..]
Wel leuk om te zien, dat je dit nu zegt, ik kan me je strategieen van maanden geleden nog herinneren dat bij een S&P van 1000 of was het 900 een goed instap moment zou zijn met de wetenschap die we toen hadden.
Dat speelt zeker mee. Eigenlijk een soort Marschall-plan II.quote:
[..]
Chinezen doorgronden is een kunst op zich. Ik kan wel een gokje wagen.
Het doet me denken aan een verdeel en heers politiek. China krijgt op deze manier voet aan de grond in Europa (De Atheense haven is niet zo ver van het olierijke middenoosten), zet de Europese Unie met al hun voorwaarden te kakken, en trekt ook nog een kleine lange neus naar Amerika als redder van een natie uit het kamp van de US.
Daarnaast vind China de Amerikaanse hegemonie in de financiële markten via de dollar niet zo prettig, en de euro biedt een mooi alternatief als handelsmunt.
(Collapse van de dollar zonder alternatief zou instorting van de wereldhandel betekenen, vandaar dat de dollar vroeger zoveel gesteund werd.)
Een bubble in China omdat een Amerikaans rating-bureau dat zegt...quote:
Je kan je afvragen hoe waardevol (en objectief) de praatjes van Moody's eigenlijk zijn.
Als je de tekst had gelezen werd je duidelijk dat de lokale Chinese overheid de laatste jaren een schuld van 2,2 triljoen dollar heeft opgebouwd! En dat is waarschijnlijk nog meer door boekhoudkundige regels! Dat Moodys dat rapporteerd doet er niet toe.quote:
Een bubble in China omdat een Amerikaans rating-bureau dat zegt...
Je kan je afvragen hoe waardevol (en objectief) de praatjes van Moody's eigenlijk zijn.
De Chinese overheid stuurt hier natuurlijk op aan om een bepaalde economische groei te behouden. Je kunt je vraagtekens zetten hoe veel van die groei duurzaam is en welke gevolgen het heeft voor de toekomst. Naast die schuldenexplosie zijn er meer onevenwichtigheden in de Chinese economie te vinden (o.a. in dit topic genoemd), die nooit duurzaam kunnen zijn en toekomstige gevolgen gaan hebben. Een big fat bubble als je het mij vraagt.
Hoe investeert een Chinees staatsbedrijf (in dit geval een pharmaceut die westerse geneesmiddelen kopieert) het geld dat Beijing hem toeschuift?
Nou, bijvoorbeeld door voor zichzelf een hoofdkantoor uit marmer en goud te bouwen waar Versailles bij verbleekt:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/apres-nous-le-deluge/
Nou, bijvoorbeeld door voor zichzelf een hoofdkantoor uit marmer en goud te bouwen waar Versailles bij verbleekt:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/apres-nous-le-deluge/
quote:
Hoe investeert een Chinees staatsbedrijf (in dit geval een pharmaceut die westerse geneesmiddelen kopieert) het geld dat Beijing hem toeschuift?
Nou, bijvoorbeeld door voor zichzelf een hoofdkantoor uit marmer en goud te bouwen waar Versailles bij verbleekt:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/apres-nous-le-deluge/
Ik ben het ook helemaal eens met die laatste zin:
quote:Personally, it reminds me of the prophetic words attributed to Louis XV, a resident of the original Versailles: ”après nous, le déluge” — or to paraphrase, “when this is over, all hell’s gonna break loose.”
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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http://fd.nl/economie-pol(...)-voor-chinese-importquote:Nieuw record voor Chinese import
De Chinese import bereikte afgelopen maand een recordhoogte, terwijl ook de export beter was dan verwacht. Het handelsoverschot kromp en China lijkt de problemen in Europa en de VS goed te kunnen weerstaan.
De import steeg in augustus met 30,2% ten opzichte van een jaar eerder tot $155,6 mrd. De export groeide met 24,5% iets minder snel, waardoor het handelsoverschot verkleind werd tot $17,76 mrd. In juli was dat nog $31,5 mrd.
Tegelijkertijd nam de inflatie vorige maand af, nadat die op het hoogste punt in drie jaar stond. Volgens persbureau Bloomberg lijkt China erin te slagen de inflatie te beperken zonder de economische groei te smoren. De economie groeit er bovendien behoorlijk, terwijl de VS en Europa worstelen met hun economieën.
Volgens de Amerikaanse bank Citigroup komt de economische groei in China dit jaar uit op 9%, zeker vijf maal hoger dan in de VS of Europa.
Toch pakken die Chinezen dat een stuk beter aan. In Shanghai heeft zelfs het meest lullige station natuurstenen vloeren. In Nederland liggen er 30x30 betontegels in Amsterdam Centraal.quote:
Hoe investeert een Chinees staatsbedrijf (in dit geval een pharmaceut die westerse geneesmiddelen kopieert) het geld dat Beijing hem toeschuift?
Nou, bijvoorbeeld door voor zichzelf een hoofdkantoor uit marmer en goud te bouwen waar Versailles bij verbleekt:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/apres-nous-le-deluge/
Het is gewoon China's gouden eeuw! Dan krijg je dat soort dingen. Hebben wij ook gedaan toen het kon.
The End Times are wild
Het is wel duidelijk waar de grondstoffen bubble vandaan komt. En allemaal gefinancierd met bad debt
Ik geloof nog steeds dat de komende crash van China mogelijk de nekslag wordt voor de economie, vooral omdat China de kurk is waar equity en grondstoffen markten nog steeds op drijven. De geringe media coverage suggereert ook dat dit probleem voor veel investeerders een "black swan" gaat worden, net zoals de subprime crisis dat was (ook dat kon je makkelijk zien aankomen, maar werd grotendeels genegeerd).
Ik geloof nog steeds dat de komende crash van China mogelijk de nekslag wordt voor de economie, vooral omdat China de kurk is waar equity en grondstoffen markten nog steeds op drijven. De geringe media coverage suggereert ook dat dit probleem voor veel investeerders een "black swan" gaat worden, net zoals de subprime crisis dat was (ook dat kon je makkelijk zien aankomen, maar werd grotendeels genegeerd).
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Waarom zou China moeten crashen dan?quote:
Het is wel duidelijk waar de grondstoffen bubble vandaan komt. En allemaal gefinancierd met bad debt
Ik geloof nog steeds dat de komende crash van China mogelijk de nekslag wordt voor de economie, vooral omdat China de kurk is waar equity en grondstoffen markten nog steeds op drijven. De geringe media coverage suggereert ook dat dit probleem voor veel investeerders een "black swan" gaat worden, net zoals de subprime crisis dat was (ook dat kon je makkelijk zien aankomen, maar werd grotendeels genegeerd).
The End Times are wild
Kijk eens even waar de GDP groei vandaan komt en hoe het wordt gefinancierd...quote:
[..]
Waarom zou China moeten crashen dan?
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Die 30x30's ogen minder mooi maar hebben weer andere voordelen.quote:
[..]
Toch pakken die Chinezen dat een stuk beter aan. In Shanghai heeft zelfs het meest lullige station natuurstenen vloeren. In Nederland liggen er 30x30 betontegels in Amsterdam Centraal.
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Ja maar das ook omdat natuursteen daar gewoon gewonnen kan worden. Hier moet goed natuursteen soms helemaal geimporteerd worden uit andere landen. Maar ook hier gaan die lelijke tegels steeds vaker weg.quote:
[..]
Toch pakken die Chinezen dat een stuk beter aan. In Shanghai heeft zelfs het meest lullige station natuurstenen vloeren. In Nederland liggen er 30x30 betontegels in Amsterdam Centraal.
Maar inderdaad. China gaat momenteel echt razend hard. Neem bijvoorbeeld Tianjin. De foto's hieronder laten slechts 1 projectgebied zien van de twee die nu in aanbouw zijn in die stad. Toch zijn alleen in dit project waarschijnlijk al meer gebouwen in aanbouw dat in heel Nederland. Als je dan kijkt naar hoeveel er in China als geheel gaande is val je echt achterover. Dit is volgens mij niet eens het grootste project wat gaande is.
En dit moet er dan over een aantal jaar staan:
[ Bericht 15% gewijzigd door Eyjafjallajoekull op 10-09-2011 16:20:45 ]
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
quote:Op zaterdag 10 september 2011 16:12 schreef Eyjafjallajoekull het volgende:
En dit moet er dan over een aantal jaar leegstaan:
Op donderdag 6 september 2012 @ 21:41 schreef Shakkara het volgende:
Uiteraard is het volgens Rutte en consorten de schuld van een imaginair links kabinet dat we ooit ergens in het verleden gehad schijnen te hebben.
Uiteraard is het volgens Rutte en consorten de schuld van een imaginair links kabinet dat we ooit ergens in het verleden gehad schijnen te hebben.
Ja daar hoor je veel over. Dat zal ook zeker het geval zijn op sommige plekken maar vergeet niet dat er naar schatting 500 miljoen mensen van het platteland naar de stad gaan verhuizen in de komende decennia. Dat zijn een hoop mensen die werk en huisvesting zullen willen. Plus dat het gebied wat je hierboven ziet vast zit aan een bestaande stad van een paar miljoen inwoners die ook nog eens erg belangrijk is voor China. Relatief gezien is bovenstaand project hetzelfde als de zuid-as is voor Amsterdam.quote:
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
Wie gaat al die mensen te eten geven, vraag ik me dan af. 500 miljoen mensen van het platteland naar de stad betekent dus een flinke vermindering van de voedselproductie.
Automatisering. Hoeveel procent van de bevolking verzorgt het eten in Nederland? als over 50 jaar ongeveer 1 miljard mensen in de stad wonen in china, heb je nog 400 a 500 miljoen mensen op het platteland wonen. Alsnog een derde. Meer dan genoeg. Sterker nog, volgens mij is 10% nog voldoende...quote:
Wie gaat al die mensen te eten geven, vraag ik me dan af. 500 miljoen mensen van het platteland naar de stad betekent dus een flinke vermindering van de voedselproductie.
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
Probleem is alleen dat die boeren geen geld hebben, dus hoe kunnen die kopen..... subprime the Chineese way ?quote:
Wie gaat al die mensen te eten geven, vraag ik me dan af. 500 miljoen mensen van het platteland naar de stad betekent dus een flinke vermindering van de voedselproductie.
4% van de bevolking en we hebben flinke overschotten. Daarentegen zijn Nederlandse boeren zo'n beetje de meest efficiënte boeren op aarde.quote:
[..]
Automatisering. Hoeveel procent van de bevolking verzorgt het eten in Nederland? als over 50 jaar ongeveer 1 miljard mensen in de stad wonen in china, heb je nog 400 a 500 miljoen mensen op het platteland wonen. Alsnog een derde. Meer dan genoeg. Sterker nog, volgens mij is 10% nog voldoende...
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Zet er een westers farmaceutisch bedrijf naast, en ik ben zeer bereid om daar te gaan wonen/werken!quote:
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
Een Ponzi-schemequote:China Home Prices Rise, Challenge Curbs
China’s August new-home prices rose in all 70 cities monitored for the first time this year, undercutting government efforts to cool the market through higher down-payments and mortgage rates.
Prices in Beijing advanced 1.9 percent from a year ago, while those in Shanghai, the nation’s financial center, increased 2.8 percent, the statistics bureau said on its website yesterday. New home prices climbed in 67 out of 70 cities in the first half this year and were up in all but two in July.
China’s measures to control its property market are at a critical stage and the nation needs to focus efforts on curbing price increases in less affluent cities after limiting home purchases by each family in metropolitan areas including Beijing and Shanghai, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sept. 1. Only two cities responded to the government’s July call for added restrictions on housing purchases, as local governments rely on land sales to pay mounting debt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/(...)overnment-curbs.html
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Gevoed door een grote hoeveelheid olie en kunstmest. Zodra die moeilijker leverbaar worden wordt de onderhoudbaarheid van de bevolking een stuk lastiger.quote:
[..]
4% van de bevolking en we hebben flinke overschotten. Daarentegen zijn Nederlandse boeren zo'n beetje de meest efficiënte boeren op aarde.
For great justice!
Automatisering is heel makkelijk bij het vlakke land landbouw zoals we in NL kennen, maar terrassen landbouw met rijstvelden daar krijg je geen tractoren in de kleine terrassen.quote:
[..]
Automatisering. Hoeveel procent van de bevolking verzorgt het eten in Nederland?
Het kan altijd nog uit steenkolen of het mestoverschot gewonnen worden.quote:Op maandag 19 september 2011 10:01 schreef Q. het volgende:
[..]
Gevoed door een grote hoeveelheid olie en kunstmest. Zodra die moeilijker leverbaar worden wordt de onderhoudbaarheid van de bevolking een stuk lastiger.
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Klopt, Nederlandse boeren zijn zo efficient omdat ze mensenkracht vervangen hebben voor machinekracht. Maar dat kost wel veel olie en gas.quote:
[..]
Gevoed door een grote hoeveelheid olie en kunstmest. Zodra die moeilijker leverbaar worden wordt de onderhoudbaarheid van de bevolking een stuk lastiger.
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
Slik je zoveel pillen?quote:
Zet er een westers farmaceutisch bedrijf naast, en ik ben zeer bereid om daar te gaan wonen/werken!
quote:
[..]
Klopt, Nederlandse boeren zijn zo efficient omdat ze mensenkracht vervangen hebben voor machinekracht. Maar dat kost wel veel olie en gas.
Daarom is de komende energie crisis veel destructiever dan de kredietcrisis. Als wij niet snel de technologie benutten om ons te voorzien van duurzame energie zal de mensheid de komende 50 jaar decimeren. Kun je nagaan wat dat voor de onroerend goed zeepbel gaat betekenen
"No, I do not believe in patents. I believe that patents make other people dis-incentied in coming up with new thing" - Thomas Peterffy
China Loan Shark Market Crashes; Scores of Chinese Business Owners Unable to Pay Black Market Loans Commit Suicide or Disappear
Here is an interesting email from reader "Kevin" regarding the crashing loan-shark market in China.
========================================
Hello Mish
I am a long time reader and want to bring to your attention on a new development in China: private business owners are disappearing or jumping off buildings because they can no longer pay off black market shark loans.
According to national new paper Economics Information (part of state media Xinhua), on 9/22, Hu Fulin, owner of the biggest eyeglass manufacture of the city of Wenzhou disappeared, leaving behind 2 billion RMB debt.
On 9/25, 3 more business owners in Wenzhou disappeared (owners of copper, steel and shoe manufacture).
On 9/27, owner of "Zhengdeli", a shoe manufacture jumped off of a 22 story building and killed himself.
Since April this year 29 private business owners have disappeared, all of them had over 100 million RMB businesses. 11 of the 29 owned shoe manufacturing businesses.
An analyst from China Investment (China's Sovereign investment fund) pointed out that it's because they are squeezed by a rapid increase of component and labor costs. A rising RMB is also a reason why many export oriented companies are hit. In August, Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou Small-Medium Business Development Association said the profit margin of Small-Medium businesses in Wenzhou has dropped to under 5% and absent of policy changes, 40% of businesses in Wenzhou will go out of business by next Spring Festival (late Jan 2012)
The complete article is here (in Chinese): http://www.jjckb.cn/2011-09/29/content_334954.htm.
Another article http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20110929/005910558780.shtml (titled: China's Shark Loans Crashing; "Grey Finance" Brewing the Chinese Crisis) states that most of those owners have borrowed "private" loans (typically 70% of all loans), with MONTHLY interest rate ranging from 3% to 10%.
About 89% of families/individuals and 59% of companies in Wenzhou participated in such "private loan" schemes. In Erdos (the ghost city you blogged many times), such "private loans" are more than 200 billion RMB with annual interest rate over 60%. Now they are crashing, causing rampant unfinished real estate projects in Erdos.
Note that Wenzhou is one of riches cities in China (No. 3 in disposable income per capita), and is considered the "Birthplace of China's Private Economy". Wenzhou people are among the first that got in trades, manufacturing, export, and in recent years real estate investment/speculation. The Wenzhou economy is considered the "weathercock" of Chinese economy.
========================================
Loan Shark Credit Crisis Brewing
Courtesy of Google Translate please consider Gray Chinese-style financial credit crisis brewing area
"Economic Information Daily" correspondent from the multi-confirmed the day before and then there were two causes of Wenzhou City, inability to repay loan sharks and jumping events. According to informed sources, the two business owners are the local shoe factory owner, debt of millions.
Since April this year, Wenzhou, missing more than 80 business owners, the company closed, the event staff pay talks, since September alone, there are up to 25 cases. A local lender told reporters, "At present, only the flight of capital Longwan area estimated to have 100 million or more, many SMEs liabilities, the banks accounted for 30%, accounting for 70% civil usury."
Crazy expansion of private lending market chaos
Some sharks can reach up to 180% per annum. ... "many companies debt snowball, private lending market has not been given attention now has about 25% local to 30% of companies in trouble, some in the suspension or semi-shutdown state, but by the end of this class companies are more likely accounted for 40% to 50%. "
Financial Earthquake Triggered by Loan Shark Business
Also courtesy of Google Translate, please consider loan-sharking business owners who jumped to escape
September 22, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Jiang Xintai largest optical company chairman Hu Fulin liabilities 2 billion fled, triggering a major earthquake Wenzhou business. Wenzhou Zhou German SME Development Association president, said Hu Fulin liabilities involving nearly ten thousand people, dozens of companies, including upstream and downstream Nobuyasu and creditors, the incident is still fermenting, the impact will be further expanded.
Hu Fulin fled after the September 25 Wenzhou enterprises have three big boss fled; afternoon of September 27, Wenzhou shoe boss is profit because of debt problems from Wenzhou Shun Building, 22 Floor, Jin jumped to death.
The translations are choppy, but the ideas very easy to spot.
$SSEC - Shanghai Exchange -Daily Chart
China is down another 1% (not reflected in the above chart), to 2368 as of 2:00 AM Thursday. It closed at 2365.
The Shanghai stock market depicts a credit bubble that collapsed in 2008, partially rebounded, and is sinking once again.
China did not decouple from the global economy, nor is there any reason to believe it will, or should. China's debt bubble, housing bubble, and copper Ponzi financing schemes are collapsing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Owke.... feest in China dus.
Here is an interesting email from reader "Kevin" regarding the crashing loan-shark market in China.
========================================
Hello Mish
I am a long time reader and want to bring to your attention on a new development in China: private business owners are disappearing or jumping off buildings because they can no longer pay off black market shark loans.
According to national new paper Economics Information (part of state media Xinhua), on 9/22, Hu Fulin, owner of the biggest eyeglass manufacture of the city of Wenzhou disappeared, leaving behind 2 billion RMB debt.
On 9/25, 3 more business owners in Wenzhou disappeared (owners of copper, steel and shoe manufacture).
On 9/27, owner of "Zhengdeli", a shoe manufacture jumped off of a 22 story building and killed himself.
Since April this year 29 private business owners have disappeared, all of them had over 100 million RMB businesses. 11 of the 29 owned shoe manufacturing businesses.
An analyst from China Investment (China's Sovereign investment fund) pointed out that it's because they are squeezed by a rapid increase of component and labor costs. A rising RMB is also a reason why many export oriented companies are hit. In August, Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou Small-Medium Business Development Association said the profit margin of Small-Medium businesses in Wenzhou has dropped to under 5% and absent of policy changes, 40% of businesses in Wenzhou will go out of business by next Spring Festival (late Jan 2012)
The complete article is here (in Chinese): http://www.jjckb.cn/2011-09/29/content_334954.htm.
Another article http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20110929/005910558780.shtml (titled: China's Shark Loans Crashing; "Grey Finance" Brewing the Chinese Crisis) states that most of those owners have borrowed "private" loans (typically 70% of all loans), with MONTHLY interest rate ranging from 3% to 10%.
About 89% of families/individuals and 59% of companies in Wenzhou participated in such "private loan" schemes. In Erdos (the ghost city you blogged many times), such "private loans" are more than 200 billion RMB with annual interest rate over 60%. Now they are crashing, causing rampant unfinished real estate projects in Erdos.
Note that Wenzhou is one of riches cities in China (No. 3 in disposable income per capita), and is considered the "Birthplace of China's Private Economy". Wenzhou people are among the first that got in trades, manufacturing, export, and in recent years real estate investment/speculation. The Wenzhou economy is considered the "weathercock" of Chinese economy.
========================================
Loan Shark Credit Crisis Brewing
Courtesy of Google Translate please consider Gray Chinese-style financial credit crisis brewing area
"Economic Information Daily" correspondent from the multi-confirmed the day before and then there were two causes of Wenzhou City, inability to repay loan sharks and jumping events. According to informed sources, the two business owners are the local shoe factory owner, debt of millions.
Since April this year, Wenzhou, missing more than 80 business owners, the company closed, the event staff pay talks, since September alone, there are up to 25 cases. A local lender told reporters, "At present, only the flight of capital Longwan area estimated to have 100 million or more, many SMEs liabilities, the banks accounted for 30%, accounting for 70% civil usury."
Crazy expansion of private lending market chaos
Some sharks can reach up to 180% per annum. ... "many companies debt snowball, private lending market has not been given attention now has about 25% local to 30% of companies in trouble, some in the suspension or semi-shutdown state, but by the end of this class companies are more likely accounted for 40% to 50%. "
Financial Earthquake Triggered by Loan Shark Business
Also courtesy of Google Translate, please consider loan-sharking business owners who jumped to escape
September 22, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Jiang Xintai largest optical company chairman Hu Fulin liabilities 2 billion fled, triggering a major earthquake Wenzhou business. Wenzhou Zhou German SME Development Association president, said Hu Fulin liabilities involving nearly ten thousand people, dozens of companies, including upstream and downstream Nobuyasu and creditors, the incident is still fermenting, the impact will be further expanded.
Hu Fulin fled after the September 25 Wenzhou enterprises have three big boss fled; afternoon of September 27, Wenzhou shoe boss is profit because of debt problems from Wenzhou Shun Building, 22 Floor, Jin jumped to death.
The translations are choppy, but the ideas very easy to spot.
$SSEC - Shanghai Exchange -Daily Chart
China is down another 1% (not reflected in the above chart), to 2368 as of 2:00 AM Thursday. It closed at 2365.
The Shanghai stock market depicts a credit bubble that collapsed in 2008, partially rebounded, and is sinking once again.
China did not decouple from the global economy, nor is there any reason to believe it will, or should. China's debt bubble, housing bubble, and copper Ponzi financing schemes are collapsing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Owke.... feest in China dus.
Property Prices Collapse in China. Is This a Crash?
Residential property prices are in freefall in China as developers race to meet revenue targets for the year in a quickly deteriorating market. The country’s largest builders began discounting homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen in recent weeks, and the trend has now spread to second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, and Chongqing. In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project. “The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.
What started slowly in September turned into a rout by the middle of last month—normally a good period for sales—when Shanghai developers started to slash asking prices. Analysts then expected falling property values to move Premier Wen Jiabao to relax tightening measures, such as increases in mortgage rates and prohibitions on second-home purchases, intended to cool the market.
They were wrong. After a State Council meeting on October 29, Mr. Wen affirmed his policy, stating that local authorities should continue to “strictly implement the central government’s real estate policies in the coming months to let citizens see the results of the curbs.” Then, the selling began in earnest as “desperate” developers competed among themselves to unload inventory. One builder—Excellence Group—even said it would sell flats in Huizhou at its development cost.
Citi’s Oscar Choi believes prices will decline another 10% next year, but that’s a conservative estimate. Even state-funded experts are more pessimistic. For example, Cao Jianhai of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences sees price cuts of 50% on homes if the government continues its cooling measures.
When Beijing’s pet analysts are saying prices could halve in a few months, we can be sure they are thinking the eventual sell-off will be worse. In any event, the markets are bracing for trouble. Investors are dumping both the bonds and the shares of Chinese developers, and legendary bear Jim Chanos, citing the property market, late last month said he is still not covering his short positions on China.
One does not have to agree that China will be “Dubai times 1,000—or worse”—Chanos’s memorable phrase—to understand that the unwinding of “the biggest housing bubble ever created” will be especially painful. Analysts have great confidence in Beijing’s technocrats because they managed to continue to manufacture growth through the global downturn, but most of us seem to forget that the Chinese, through massive stimulus, created even bigger challenges for themselves. At the moment, Beijing has yet to resolve two intractable problems: persistent inflation and artificially high property prices.
The dominant narrative at the moment is that China’s economic managers will skillfully deflate the property bubble and land the economy softly. As Time observes, “Many observers say a sharp economic decline won’t be permitted to happen before the change of leadership in 2012.”
Won’t be permitted? It is true that Beijing’s technocrats have had the advantage of working in a semi-closed system that has allowed them to use the considerable resources of the state to achieve outcomes not possible in freer economies. Nonetheless, they can continue to do so—in other words, defy economic principles—only as long as market participants—in this case builders, local officials, and homeowners—cooperate.
The last four weeks, however, must have been a sobering period for Premier Wen, and not only because developers began to lose their nerve. For one thing, recent purchasers have taken to the streets because they had suffered losses even before taking possession of their homes. A crowd of about 300 people in Shanghai smashed windows at the sales office of Longfor Properties on October 22, two days after the builder had ended a sales promotion on a project. The protestors had bought properties in earlier phases of the same project at prices as much as 30% higher than the discounted ones.
And then, on the 23rd, a smaller crowd—on the same street—demonstrated against another developer, Greenland Group. Protesters were injured in Shanghai at another demonstration, this time against a unit of China Overseas Holdings. There were also protests against builders in Beijing and in other cities, Hangzhou and Nanjing.
The cities of Hangzhou and Hefei have reportedly told developers to limit discounts to 20% to avoid unrest, but the attempt to establish fiat prices will not work for long because many builders face insolvency.
Moreover, Premier Wen has to be concerned that sometimes he cannot control his own cities, which have flouted his decrees by removing curbs on property ownership. Nanjing defied Beijing and relaxed mortgage rules, as did Anhui province. At least in Foshan, a city in Guangdong, central authorities apparently convinced local leaders to rescind their earlier decision to scrap centrally mandated curbs.
The overriding reality is that, because of Beijing’s stimulus spending, there are too many properties and not enough buyers at this time. The market will have to arrive at equilibrium at some point, but what is surprising is the rapidity at which this is now happening. In common parlance, it’s called a crash.
Residential property prices are in freefall in China as developers race to meet revenue targets for the year in a quickly deteriorating market. The country’s largest builders began discounting homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen in recent weeks, and the trend has now spread to second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, and Chongqing. In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project. “The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.
What started slowly in September turned into a rout by the middle of last month—normally a good period for sales—when Shanghai developers started to slash asking prices. Analysts then expected falling property values to move Premier Wen Jiabao to relax tightening measures, such as increases in mortgage rates and prohibitions on second-home purchases, intended to cool the market.
They were wrong. After a State Council meeting on October 29, Mr. Wen affirmed his policy, stating that local authorities should continue to “strictly implement the central government’s real estate policies in the coming months to let citizens see the results of the curbs.” Then, the selling began in earnest as “desperate” developers competed among themselves to unload inventory. One builder—Excellence Group—even said it would sell flats in Huizhou at its development cost.
Citi’s Oscar Choi believes prices will decline another 10% next year, but that’s a conservative estimate. Even state-funded experts are more pessimistic. For example, Cao Jianhai of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences sees price cuts of 50% on homes if the government continues its cooling measures.
When Beijing’s pet analysts are saying prices could halve in a few months, we can be sure they are thinking the eventual sell-off will be worse. In any event, the markets are bracing for trouble. Investors are dumping both the bonds and the shares of Chinese developers, and legendary bear Jim Chanos, citing the property market, late last month said he is still not covering his short positions on China.
One does not have to agree that China will be “Dubai times 1,000—or worse”—Chanos’s memorable phrase—to understand that the unwinding of “the biggest housing bubble ever created” will be especially painful. Analysts have great confidence in Beijing’s technocrats because they managed to continue to manufacture growth through the global downturn, but most of us seem to forget that the Chinese, through massive stimulus, created even bigger challenges for themselves. At the moment, Beijing has yet to resolve two intractable problems: persistent inflation and artificially high property prices.
The dominant narrative at the moment is that China’s economic managers will skillfully deflate the property bubble and land the economy softly. As Time observes, “Many observers say a sharp economic decline won’t be permitted to happen before the change of leadership in 2012.”
Won’t be permitted? It is true that Beijing’s technocrats have had the advantage of working in a semi-closed system that has allowed them to use the considerable resources of the state to achieve outcomes not possible in freer economies. Nonetheless, they can continue to do so—in other words, defy economic principles—only as long as market participants—in this case builders, local officials, and homeowners—cooperate.
The last four weeks, however, must have been a sobering period for Premier Wen, and not only because developers began to lose their nerve. For one thing, recent purchasers have taken to the streets because they had suffered losses even before taking possession of their homes. A crowd of about 300 people in Shanghai smashed windows at the sales office of Longfor Properties on October 22, two days after the builder had ended a sales promotion on a project. The protestors had bought properties in earlier phases of the same project at prices as much as 30% higher than the discounted ones.
And then, on the 23rd, a smaller crowd—on the same street—demonstrated against another developer, Greenland Group. Protesters were injured in Shanghai at another demonstration, this time against a unit of China Overseas Holdings. There were also protests against builders in Beijing and in other cities, Hangzhou and Nanjing.
The cities of Hangzhou and Hefei have reportedly told developers to limit discounts to 20% to avoid unrest, but the attempt to establish fiat prices will not work for long because many builders face insolvency.
Moreover, Premier Wen has to be concerned that sometimes he cannot control his own cities, which have flouted his decrees by removing curbs on property ownership. Nanjing defied Beijing and relaxed mortgage rules, as did Anhui province. At least in Foshan, a city in Guangdong, central authorities apparently convinced local leaders to rescind their earlier decision to scrap centrally mandated curbs.
The overriding reality is that, because of Beijing’s stimulus spending, there are too many properties and not enough buyers at this time. The market will have to arrive at equilibrium at some point, but what is surprising is the rapidity at which this is now happening. In common parlance, it’s called a crash.
Fake Disneyland
China’s deserted fake Disneyland
Dec 12, 2011 11:52 EST
By David Gray
Along the road to one of China’s most famous tourist landmarks – the Great Wall of China – sits what could potentially have been another such tourist destination, but now stands as an example of modern-day China and the problems facing it.
Situated on an area of around 100 acres, and 45 minutes drive from the center of Beijing, are the ruins of ‘Wonderland’. Construction stopped more than a decade ago, with developers promoting it as ‘the largest amusement park in Asia’. Funds were withdrawn due to disagreements over property prices with the local government and farmers. So what is left are the skeletal remains of a palace, a castle, and the steel beams of what could have been an indoor playground in the middle of a corn field.
Pulling off the expressway and into the car park, I expected to be stopped by the usual confrontational security guards. But there was absolutely no one to be seen. I walked through one of the few entrances not boarded up, and instantly started coughing. In front of me were large empty rooms and discarded furniture, all covered in a thick layer of dust, along with an eerie silence that gave the place a haunted feeling – an emotion not normally associated with a children’s playground.
Once outside again, I came across some farmers who originally owned the land and are now using it to once again to grow their crops. Their tracks and plantations can be seen running through and surrounding the uncompleted buildings. Walking further, I came across a rather farcical sight of some farmers digging a well next to a castle; a moment I will always savor as a photographer in a place like China where castles are not in huge supply. I explained this to the farmers and they just shrugged their shoulders, oblivious to a photographer’s happiness. I asked them what happened, and they simply answered the developers ran out of money, and they are getting back to doing what they do best. They are even slowly starting to plant trees and build shelters near the buildings, adding they think it is now safe to think the developers are never coming back. This I can believe, as the absence of any security (something very rare in China) leads one to think that even the developers have given up on what is already there.
All these structures of rusting steel and decaying cement, are another sad example of property development in China involving wasted money, wasted resources and the uprooting of farmers and their families. It is a reflection of the country’s property market which many analysts say the government must keep tightening steps in place. The worry is a massive increase in inflation and a speculative bubble that might burst, considering that property sales contribute to around 10 percent of China’s growth.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Crash in Progress, Pollyannas Proven Wrong
China's property bubble is clearly in free-fall. Just as happened in the United States, developers are offering "free" cars, BMW's no less, for those willing to take the plunge.
The numerous Pollyannas who said this would not happen have been proven wrong. China did not "decouple" and home prices cannot stay elevated over wages and rental prices forever.
China’s deserted fake Disneyland
Dec 12, 2011 11:52 EST
By David Gray
Along the road to one of China’s most famous tourist landmarks – the Great Wall of China – sits what could potentially have been another such tourist destination, but now stands as an example of modern-day China and the problems facing it.
Situated on an area of around 100 acres, and 45 minutes drive from the center of Beijing, are the ruins of ‘Wonderland’. Construction stopped more than a decade ago, with developers promoting it as ‘the largest amusement park in Asia’. Funds were withdrawn due to disagreements over property prices with the local government and farmers. So what is left are the skeletal remains of a palace, a castle, and the steel beams of what could have been an indoor playground in the middle of a corn field.
Pulling off the expressway and into the car park, I expected to be stopped by the usual confrontational security guards. But there was absolutely no one to be seen. I walked through one of the few entrances not boarded up, and instantly started coughing. In front of me were large empty rooms and discarded furniture, all covered in a thick layer of dust, along with an eerie silence that gave the place a haunted feeling – an emotion not normally associated with a children’s playground.
Once outside again, I came across some farmers who originally owned the land and are now using it to once again to grow their crops. Their tracks and plantations can be seen running through and surrounding the uncompleted buildings. Walking further, I came across a rather farcical sight of some farmers digging a well next to a castle; a moment I will always savor as a photographer in a place like China where castles are not in huge supply. I explained this to the farmers and they just shrugged their shoulders, oblivious to a photographer’s happiness. I asked them what happened, and they simply answered the developers ran out of money, and they are getting back to doing what they do best. They are even slowly starting to plant trees and build shelters near the buildings, adding they think it is now safe to think the developers are never coming back. This I can believe, as the absence of any security (something very rare in China) leads one to think that even the developers have given up on what is already there.
All these structures of rusting steel and decaying cement, are another sad example of property development in China involving wasted money, wasted resources and the uprooting of farmers and their families. It is a reflection of the country’s property market which many analysts say the government must keep tightening steps in place. The worry is a massive increase in inflation and a speculative bubble that might burst, considering that property sales contribute to around 10 percent of China’s growth.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Crash in Progress, Pollyannas Proven Wrong
China's property bubble is clearly in free-fall. Just as happened in the United States, developers are offering "free" cars, BMW's no less, for those willing to take the plunge.
The numerous Pollyannas who said this would not happen have been proven wrong. China did not "decouple" and home prices cannot stay elevated over wages and rental prices forever.
China's epic hangover begins
China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.
It is hard to obtain good data in China, but something is wrong when the country's Homelink property website can report that new home prices in Beijing fell 35pc in November from the month before. If this is remotely true, the calibrated soft-landing intended by Chinese authorities has gone badly wrong and risks spinning out of control.
The growth of the M2 money supply slumped to 12.7pc in November, the lowest in 10 years. New lending fell 5pc on a month-to-month basis. The central bank has begun to reverse its tightening policy as inflation subsides, cutting the reserve requirement for lenders for the first time since 2008 to ease liquidity strains.
The question is whether the People's Bank can do any better than the US Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan at deflating a credit bubble.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, almost as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.
"Investors are massively underestimating the risk of a hard-landing in China, and indeed other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China)... a 'Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept' in my view," said Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.
contracts as global demand slows
"The BRICs are falling like bricks and the crises are home-blown, caused by their own boom-bust credit cycles. Industrial production is already falling in India, and Brazil will soon follow."
"There is so much spare capacity that they will start dumping goods, risking a deflation shock for the rest of the world. It no surpise that China has just imposed tariffs on imports of GM cars. I think it is highly likely that China will devalue the yuan next year, risking a trade war," he said.
China's $3.2 trillion foreign reserves have been falling for three months despite the trade surplus. Hot money is flowing out of the country. "One-way capital inflow or one-way bets on a yuan rise have become history. Our foreign reserves are basically falling every day," said Li Yang, a former central bank rate-setter.
The reserve loss acts as a form of monetary tightening, exactly the opposite of the effect during the boom. The reserves cannot be tapped to prop up China's internal banking system. To do so would mean repatriating the money – now in US Treasuries and European bonds – pushing up the yuan at the worst moment.
The economy is badly out of kilter. Consumption has fallen from 48pc to 36pc of GDP since the late 1990s. Investment has risen to 50pc of GDP. This is off the charts, even by the standards of Japan, Korea or Tawian during their catch-up spurts. Nothing like it has been seen before in modern times.
Fitch Ratings said China is hooked on credit, but deriving ever less punch from each dose. An extra dollar in loans increased GDP by $0.77 in 2007. It is $0.44 in 2011. "The reality is that China's economy today requires significantly more financing to achieve the same level of growth as in the past," said China analyst Charlene Chu.
Ms Chu warned that there had been a "massive build-up in leverage" and fears a "fundamental, structural erosion" in the banking system that differs from past downturns. "For the first time, a large number of Chinese banks are beginning to face cash pressures. The forthcoming wave of asset quality issues has the potential to become uglier than in previous episodes".
Investors had thought China was immune to a property crash because mortgage finance is just 19pc of GDP. Wealthy Chinese often buy two, three or more flats with cash to park money because they cannot invest overseas and bank deposit rates have been minus 3pc in real terms this year.
But with price to income levels reaching nosebleed levels of 18 in East coast cities, it is clear that appartments – often left empty – have themselves become a momentum trade.
Professor Patrick Chovanec from Beijing's Tsinghua School of Economics said China's property downturn began in earnest in August when construction firms reported that unsold inventories had reached $50bn. It has now turned into "a spiral of downward expectations".
A fire-sale is under way in coastal cities, with Shanghai developers slashing prices 25pc in November – much to the fury of earlier buyers, who expect refunds. This is spreading. Property sales have fallen 70pc in the inland city of Changsa. Prices have reportedly dropped 70pc in the "ghost city" of Ordos in Inner Mongolia. China Real Estate Index reports that prices dropped by just 0.3pc in the top 100 cities last month, but this looks like a lagging indicator. Meanwhile, the slowdown is creeping into core industries. Steel output has buckled.
Beijing was able to counter the global crunch in 2008-2009 by unleashing credit, acting as a shock absorber for the whole world. It is doubtful that Beijing can pull off this trick a second time.
"If investors go for growth at all costs again they are likely to find that it works even less than before and inflation returns quickly with a vengeance," said Diana Choyleva from Lombard Street Research.
The International Monetary Fund's Zhu Min says loans have doubled to almost 200pc of GDP over the last five years, including off-books lending.
This is roughly twice the intensity of credit growth in the five years preceeding Japan's Nikkei bubble in the late 1980s or the US housing bubble from 2002 to 2007. Each of these booms saw loan growth of near 50 percentage points of GDP.
The IMF said in November that lenders face a "steady build-up of financial sector vulnerabilities", warning if hit with multiple shocks, "the banking system could be severely impacted".
Mark Williams from Capital Economics said the great hope was that China would use its credit spree after 2008 to buy time, switching from chronic over-investment to consumer-led growth. "It hasn't work out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how little progress has been made. China may ride out the storm over the next few months, but the dangers of over-capacity and bad debt will only intensify".
In truth, China faces an epic deleveraging hangover, like the rest of us.
===========================================================
'Chinese beleggers halen banken leeg'
SJANGHAI - Chinese beleggers hebben in de eerste 10 dagen van december honderden miljarden yuans van rekeningen bij Chinese banken gehaald.
Ze zouden teleurgesteld zijn dat de koers van de yuan niet stijgt en daarom hun geld wegsluizen.
De banken zagen in totaal 400 miljard yuan (48 miljard euro) weggehaald worden, waarvan de helft van rekeningen van de Bank of China, aldus de krant 21st Century Business Herald vrijdag.
Door de recessie in de eurozone en de moeilijke economische omstandigheden in de Verenigde Staten krijgt de Chinese export het moeilijker. Een duurdere yuan zou die problemen alleen maar versterken, zodat wordt verwacht dat Chinese beleidsmakers willen voorkomen dat de koers van de yuan verder stijgt.
Dollars
De investeerders, die hadden gerekend op een stijgende yuan en deze daarom hadden aangekocht, zien hun gedroomde koerswinsten nu in rook opgaan en ruilen hun yuans daarom massaal in voor dollars.
Deze valuta wordt door de onzekere vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie nu als veilige haven beschouwd.
De opname van de honderden miljarden yuans lijkt invloed te hebben op de kredietverlening in China. Tijdens de eerste 10 dagen van december gaven de vier grootste Chinese banken slechts voor 30 miljard yuan aan leningen. In de gehele maand november werd nog voor ruim 560 miljard yuan aan krediet verleend.
================================================
China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.
It is hard to obtain good data in China, but something is wrong when the country's Homelink property website can report that new home prices in Beijing fell 35pc in November from the month before. If this is remotely true, the calibrated soft-landing intended by Chinese authorities has gone badly wrong and risks spinning out of control.
The growth of the M2 money supply slumped to 12.7pc in November, the lowest in 10 years. New lending fell 5pc on a month-to-month basis. The central bank has begun to reverse its tightening policy as inflation subsides, cutting the reserve requirement for lenders for the first time since 2008 to ease liquidity strains.
The question is whether the People's Bank can do any better than the US Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan at deflating a credit bubble.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, almost as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.
"Investors are massively underestimating the risk of a hard-landing in China, and indeed other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China)... a 'Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept' in my view," said Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.
contracts as global demand slows
"The BRICs are falling like bricks and the crises are home-blown, caused by their own boom-bust credit cycles. Industrial production is already falling in India, and Brazil will soon follow."
"There is so much spare capacity that they will start dumping goods, risking a deflation shock for the rest of the world. It no surpise that China has just imposed tariffs on imports of GM cars. I think it is highly likely that China will devalue the yuan next year, risking a trade war," he said.
China's $3.2 trillion foreign reserves have been falling for three months despite the trade surplus. Hot money is flowing out of the country. "One-way capital inflow or one-way bets on a yuan rise have become history. Our foreign reserves are basically falling every day," said Li Yang, a former central bank rate-setter.
The reserve loss acts as a form of monetary tightening, exactly the opposite of the effect during the boom. The reserves cannot be tapped to prop up China's internal banking system. To do so would mean repatriating the money – now in US Treasuries and European bonds – pushing up the yuan at the worst moment.
The economy is badly out of kilter. Consumption has fallen from 48pc to 36pc of GDP since the late 1990s. Investment has risen to 50pc of GDP. This is off the charts, even by the standards of Japan, Korea or Tawian during their catch-up spurts. Nothing like it has been seen before in modern times.
Fitch Ratings said China is hooked on credit, but deriving ever less punch from each dose. An extra dollar in loans increased GDP by $0.77 in 2007. It is $0.44 in 2011. "The reality is that China's economy today requires significantly more financing to achieve the same level of growth as in the past," said China analyst Charlene Chu.
Ms Chu warned that there had been a "massive build-up in leverage" and fears a "fundamental, structural erosion" in the banking system that differs from past downturns. "For the first time, a large number of Chinese banks are beginning to face cash pressures. The forthcoming wave of asset quality issues has the potential to become uglier than in previous episodes".
Investors had thought China was immune to a property crash because mortgage finance is just 19pc of GDP. Wealthy Chinese often buy two, three or more flats with cash to park money because they cannot invest overseas and bank deposit rates have been minus 3pc in real terms this year.
But with price to income levels reaching nosebleed levels of 18 in East coast cities, it is clear that appartments – often left empty – have themselves become a momentum trade.
Professor Patrick Chovanec from Beijing's Tsinghua School of Economics said China's property downturn began in earnest in August when construction firms reported that unsold inventories had reached $50bn. It has now turned into "a spiral of downward expectations".
A fire-sale is under way in coastal cities, with Shanghai developers slashing prices 25pc in November – much to the fury of earlier buyers, who expect refunds. This is spreading. Property sales have fallen 70pc in the inland city of Changsa. Prices have reportedly dropped 70pc in the "ghost city" of Ordos in Inner Mongolia. China Real Estate Index reports that prices dropped by just 0.3pc in the top 100 cities last month, but this looks like a lagging indicator. Meanwhile, the slowdown is creeping into core industries. Steel output has buckled.
Beijing was able to counter the global crunch in 2008-2009 by unleashing credit, acting as a shock absorber for the whole world. It is doubtful that Beijing can pull off this trick a second time.
"If investors go for growth at all costs again they are likely to find that it works even less than before and inflation returns quickly with a vengeance," said Diana Choyleva from Lombard Street Research.
The International Monetary Fund's Zhu Min says loans have doubled to almost 200pc of GDP over the last five years, including off-books lending.
This is roughly twice the intensity of credit growth in the five years preceeding Japan's Nikkei bubble in the late 1980s or the US housing bubble from 2002 to 2007. Each of these booms saw loan growth of near 50 percentage points of GDP.
The IMF said in November that lenders face a "steady build-up of financial sector vulnerabilities", warning if hit with multiple shocks, "the banking system could be severely impacted".
Mark Williams from Capital Economics said the great hope was that China would use its credit spree after 2008 to buy time, switching from chronic over-investment to consumer-led growth. "It hasn't work out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how little progress has been made. China may ride out the storm over the next few months, but the dangers of over-capacity and bad debt will only intensify".
In truth, China faces an epic deleveraging hangover, like the rest of us.
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'Chinese beleggers halen banken leeg'
SJANGHAI - Chinese beleggers hebben in de eerste 10 dagen van december honderden miljarden yuans van rekeningen bij Chinese banken gehaald.
Ze zouden teleurgesteld zijn dat de koers van de yuan niet stijgt en daarom hun geld wegsluizen.
De banken zagen in totaal 400 miljard yuan (48 miljard euro) weggehaald worden, waarvan de helft van rekeningen van de Bank of China, aldus de krant 21st Century Business Herald vrijdag.
Door de recessie in de eurozone en de moeilijke economische omstandigheden in de Verenigde Staten krijgt de Chinese export het moeilijker. Een duurdere yuan zou die problemen alleen maar versterken, zodat wordt verwacht dat Chinese beleidsmakers willen voorkomen dat de koers van de yuan verder stijgt.
Dollars
De investeerders, die hadden gerekend op een stijgende yuan en deze daarom hadden aangekocht, zien hun gedroomde koerswinsten nu in rook opgaan en ruilen hun yuans daarom massaal in voor dollars.
Deze valuta wordt door de onzekere vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie nu als veilige haven beschouwd.
De opname van de honderden miljarden yuans lijkt invloed te hebben op de kredietverlening in China. Tijdens de eerste 10 dagen van december gaven de vier grootste Chinese banken slechts voor 30 miljard yuan aan leningen. In de gehele maand november werd nog voor ruim 560 miljard yuan aan krediet verleend.
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