Bulls, Bears & Bucks #19: Lehman Brothers aan de beurt?

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Op woensdag 13 augustus 2008 11:29 schreef Aether het volgende:

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BANKING SYSTEM NOT WELL PROTECTED

quote: "Success is a thought process"

UBS Balance Sheet (source: Google Finance)

Balance Sheet 2008 in millions CHF
Total Assets 2,231,019.00
Total Liabilities 2,214,633.00
Total Equity 16,386.00

If you want to know why is the situation so bad, you only need to look at the balance sheet.

2.234 Trillion CHF in Assets with 2.214 Trillion CHF in Liabilities with Total Equity amounting to paltry 16.386 Billion CHF. Depending on what kind of assets they hold, whether it's properties or CDOs or bonds or others.

An impairment of 5% on assets would cost 111.55 Billion CHF, wiping out the entire Equity base of 16.386Billion CHF. With the recent sale of CDOs from Merill Lynch of their CDOs for 22 cents for the dollar, a 5% impairment is simply theoretical and perhaps even optimistic.

Just say for theoretical sake, a 5% impairment would require fresh equity of >100billion CHF. Surely Sovereign wealth Funds will need to have deep pockets easily to the tune of 300 to 500billions CHF to mitigate the problem.

The entire financial system is over-leveraged. Sub-prime originally would not have been an issue, but it now is, because it causes the over-leveraged Financial system to break down.

How much more money do we need? UBS being one of them, who else needs funding?

Your thoughts?

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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 8, 2008

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.8 million barrels per day during the
week ending August 8, down 216 thousand barrels per day from the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 85.9 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production fell last week, averaging about 8.9 million barrels
per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.3 million
barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.7 million barrels per day last week,
down 538 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four
weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.9 million barrels per day, 100 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 785 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 136
thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.4 million barrels from the previous week. At
296.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 6.4 million barrels last week, and are in near the lower boundary of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 1.7 million barrels, and are in the upper half of the average range
for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.0 million
barrels last week but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.4 million barrels last week, and
are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.2
million barrels per day, down by 2.8 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.4 million
barrels per day, down by 1.9 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
up by 4.3 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 8.5 percent
lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

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Op woensdag 13 augustus 2008 18:34 schreef simmu het volgende:
linkje only: leuke link!!!

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Op woensdag 13 augustus 2008 18:34 schreef simmu het volgende:
linkje only: leuke link!!!

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Beurscommentaar Kees de Kort
14 08 2008 | Het beurscommentaar op de radiozender BNR Nieuwsradio wordt dagelijks verzorgd door Kees de Kort, macro-analist bij AFS Capital Management in Amsterdam. Op deze pagina een samenvatting van zijn persoonlijke visie op de gebeurtenissen van de beursdag.

-Voor de rest zijn er nog steeds te veel mensen die denken dat het wel kan gaan meevallen met de gevolgen van de kredietcrisis. Doe daar svp niet aan mee. Het gaat nog veel erger worden, daarvoor staan de ontwikkelingen in de verschillende economien en de snel toenemende betalingsachterstanden gewoon garant.

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Downey Reports Pickup In Withdrawals

Newport Beach-based Downey Financial Corp. said Monday that its customers began withdrawing money at a faster pace last month.

The savings and loan operator also said it might not be able to handle its mounting debts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Losses from bad loans have been increasing each month for Downey, mostly from borrowers who took out adjustable rate mortgages that became unaffordable when they reset at higher rates.

At the end of June, 15.5% of its assets, mostly loans, were reported as non-performing.

The Office of Thrift Supervision said it was limiting some of Downey’s activity including paying dividends. It is also being charged more for deposit insurance by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

For the second quarter, the company posted a loss of $258.9 million, which prompted it to hire financial adviser Sandler O’Neil Partners LP to explore options.

It also announced the departure of its cofounder, chairman and dominant owner, Maurice McAlister, who was replaced by independent director Michael D. Bozrath.

And Chief Operating Officer Thomas Prince replaced chief executive Daniel Rosenthal on an interim basis.

Downey’s stock was down more than 6% at close of trading Monday before the announcement, giving it a market value of about $60 million.

Most of Downey’s loans were to borrowers in the Alt-A category who had credit grades above subprime but below prime.

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Downey Financial cut to 'B+/C'; still on negative watch - S&P
08.14.08, 1:30 AM ET

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered Downey Financial Corp's. counterparty credit rating to 'B+/C' from 'BB+/B', saying the company's weakened financial profile has left it exposed to potential funding and liquidity problems.

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Inflatie VS in juli naar hoogste niveau in 17 jaar
AMSTERDAM (FD.nl/DJ)--De inflatie in de Verenigde Staten is in juli opgelopen naar het hoogste niveau in 17 jaar, opgedreven door gestegen prijzen voor voedsel, energie, vliegtickets en kleding. Dat blijkt donderdag uit cijfers van het Amerikaanse ministerie van Arbeid.

De consumentenprijzen stegen in juli met 5,6% ten opzichte van dezelfde maand een jaar eerder, het hoogste peil sinds januari 1991. De kerninflatie, de geldontwaarding exclusief energie en voedsel, kwam uit op gematigder 2,5% vergeleken met juli 2007, maar nog altijd ruim boven de langetermijndoelstelling van de Fed van 1,5% tot 2%. Over de afgelopen drie maanden steeg de kerninflatie op jaarbasis met 3,5%.

Ten opzichte van een maand eerder stegen de consumentenprijzen in juli met 0,8%, terwijl in juni nog een stijging van 1,1% werd gemeten, de op een na hoogste toename sinds juni 1982. De kerninflatie bedroeg voor de tweede maand op rij 0,3%. De inflatiecijfers liggen hoger dan verwacht. Economen rekenden vooraf op een toename van de inflatie met 0,4%, en een stijging van de kerninflatie met 0,2%.

Hoewel het stelsel van Amerikaanse centrale banken zich zorgen maakt over de hoge inflatie, is de algemene verwachting vooralsnog dat de huidige rentestand gehandhaafd wordt tot in 2009. Als de kerninflatie echter hardnekkig blijkt, zou dat de weg kunnen vrijmaken voor verhogingen van de rentevoet.

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'Nederlandse economie koelt duidelijk af'
VOORBURG (ANP) - De Nederlandse economie is in het tweede kwartaal niet gegroeid ten opzichte van het voorgaande kwartaal. Het is voor het eerst in drie jaar tijd dat dit gebeurt.

,,De economie koelt duidelijk af. Het gaat nog goed met Nederland, maar de vaart is eruit'', zei econoom Michiel Vergeer van het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) donderdag. Het CBS maakte donderdag nieuwe economische groeicijfers bekend. Van een recessie is geen sprake. Dat is pas het geval als de economie twee kwartalen achtereen krimpt. Vergeleken met hetzelfde kwartaal een jaar eerder groeide de economie met 2,8 procent. Dat is minder dan de gemiddelde groei vorig jaar.

Banengroei
,,We hebben de afgelopen jaren kennelijk het zoet gehad, zonder dat we dat in de gaten hadden'', zegt Vergeer. ,,In drie jaar tijd kwamen er 500.000 banen bij, de consument had meer te besteden. Maar in vergelijking met landen als Frankrijk en Duitsland, die het afgelopen kwartaal een krimp lieten zien, doet Nederland het nog steeds goed. Er komen nog altijd banen bij.'' In het tweede kwartaal waren er 164.000 banen meer vergeleken met een jaar eerder. De groei van het aantal banen was met 2,1 procent iets lager dan in de voorgaande kwartalen.

Uitgaven
De kooplust van de consument is ondertussen duidelijk minder dan vorig jaar, zo stelt Vergeer. Huishoudens hebben in het tweede kwartaal 2,3 procent meer uitgegeven, maar dat kwam vooral door het hogere verbruik van aardgas en de nieuwe eigen bijdragen in de zorg. Op deze uitgaven heeft de consument volgens het CBS weinig invloed. Aan duurzame goederen als elektronica en meubels, en voeding en horeca gaven mensen minder geld uit. Bedrijven hebben het voorbije kwartaal 6,6 procent meer geïnvesteerd. Hun geld ging vooral naar royalties en licenties. Ook investeerden bedrijven sterk in computers en bedrijfsgebouwen. Van dat laatste profiteerde de bouwsector. In 2007 namen de bedrijfsinvesteringen met 4,9 procent toe.

Voedselprijzen
Vergeer maakt zich voor de komende tijd vooral zorgen over de hoge olie- en voedselprijzen. ,,Die tasten de koopkracht aan.'' Nederland heeft echter het voordeel dat het op een gasbel zit. Het moet olie duurder inkopen, maar daar staat tegenover dat het zijn gas tegen een hogere prijs kan verkopen. ,,Het ruilvoetverlies voor Nederland blijft daardoor beperkt vergeleken met andere landen'', aldus Vergeer.

Ook de gevolgen van de internationale kredietcrisis en de dure euro baren de econoom zorgen. Door de crisis zouden banken terughoudender kunnen worden met financieringen van bedrijven en consumenten. De dure euro vergeleken met de dollar betekent dat Nederlandse exporteurs meer concurrentie krijgen van andere landen. ,,De export naar niet-EU-landen gaat minder goed dan die naar onze buurlanden in de EU'', aldus Vergeer.

Behalve aardgas, waarvan fors meer werd uitgevoerd, groeide de uitvoer van producten in het voorbije kwartaal minder. Ook produceerden alle bedrijfstakken minder dan in 2007. Het sterkst was dat zichtbaar in de commerciële dienstverlening, waaronder uitzendbureaus vallen, maar ook de detailhandel en de horeca.

Eerder deze week lekte uit dat het Centraal Planbureau (CPB) zijn groeiraming voor volgend jaar heeft bijgesteld van 1,25 naar 1 procent. Een woordvoerder van het CPB onderstreepte donderdag dat dat nog maar een voorlopige raming is. In de definitieve, die op Prinsjesdag verschijnt, zullen de laatste berekeningen van het CBS worden meegenomen.

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"De economie van de eurozone is, voor het eerst sinds metingen in 1995 begonnen, gekrompen."

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Op vrijdag 15 augustus 2008 20:22 schreef jmac het volgende:
1 EUR = 1.46714 USD

Stop eens

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Op vrijdag 15 augustus 2008 20:28 schreef waht het volgende:

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Geduld, jmac, geduld.

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Op woensdag 13 augustus 2008 18:34 schreef simmu het volgende:
linkje only: leuke link!!!

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Lehman Expected to Post Another Loss

Listen to this article Readers know that we have been suspicious of Lehman's claims that they were on sounder footing that the market was giving them credit for and had put the worst of their financial woes behind them. Our doubts were fueled by the number of open questions surrounding their claims of deleveraging and their extremely aggressive spin management and use of leaks to the press between earnings announcements to bolster their case. The combativeness seemed not merely to be a magnification of CEO Dick Fuld's famously pugnacious personality, but also a backs-against-the-wall reaction, a de facto admission that their situation indeed verged on desperate.

Events seem to be bearing our dim view out. The Wall Street Journal reports that, contrary to earlier forecasts, Lehman is now expected to report a quarterly loss that analysts peg as high as $2.6 billion. Recall that last quarter's $2.8 billion loss was a stunner, nearly ten times the expected level, and a dramatic departure from the convention of preparing investors for earnings shortfalls.

The Journal also suggests that the expected losses in and of themselves probably won't necessitate more equity-raising, but if this is not the last losing quarter, the embattled firm will need to look again to bolstering its capital base. After the last turkey (the issue price was $28, the stock is currently at $16.17), getting money from the public markets would be a tough sale.

From the Wall Street Journal:

With the end of the New York company's fiscal third quarter less than two weeks away, some analysts are girding for a loss of $1.8 billion or more, instead of the modest profit they previously expected. If the dour projections come true, Lehman's losses since the start of March would total at least $4.5 billion -- or more than the firm churned out in profit during fiscal 2007....

In the past few months, Lehman officials have examined an array of options to bolster the company's financial position, ranging from selling troubled real-estate assets at a discount to divesting a piece of profitable asset-management unit Neuberger Berman, according to people familiar with the matter.


Yves here. I worked on a project for Neuberger many years ago. Back then it was a phenomenal business, well run, far more profitable than most asset managers. Selling a stake would be tantamount to parting with a crown jewel.

Another stock offering would be hard to pull off without angering existing shareholders, largely because the tidal wave of common shares floated in June has since plunged in value by 42%...

Lehman has been working hard to reduce its exposure to assets causing it big headaches, and the firm's balance sheet shrank 19% to $639 billion in the fiscal second quarter ended May 31....

But those moves aren't coming fast enough....Lehman holds $10.2 billion of Alt-A mortgages...David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt, Kelton, predicts that Lehman will write down its Alt-A portfolio by about $1.7 billion, or 17%, at the end of the current quarter...Mr. Trone expects Lehman to pile up overall write-downs of $3.6 billion, offset by $800 million in hedging gains...

Guy Moszkowski, a Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who last week more than doubled his loss projection to $2.6 billion, predicts that Lehman will take a $4.5 billion hit from write-downs, with about 35% of that offset by hedging...

An additional markdown of as much as 20% related to the firm's remaining $64 billion in mortgage and commercial real-estate exposure "seems like a lot but can't be ruled out," Mr. Moszkowski argues. If that were to happen, Lehman might need to raise more capital.

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Gold and Silver Extremely Oversold

Commodities
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $ 786.00, down $ 22.30 and silver was down $1.42 cents to $12.81 . Both rallied strongly on the open in Asia but have given up some of their gains in European trading . Gold i s trading at $ 793.00/793.40 per ounce (1230 GMT).


Gold (and silver) remains extremely oversold and a significant bounce is likely from these levels. Especially if the macroeconomic and geopolitical picture continues to deteriorate. Markets continue to be oblivious of the real and present danger posed by the increasing tensions between Russia and the U.S. and western countries.

Unprecedented Investment Demand Leads to Supply Issues in Physical Bullion Market
T he massive disconnect between the physical market and the paper futures market continues. There is now an unprecedented situation where large wholesalers and retailers of physical bullion in the U.S. and internationally are having difficulty keeping up with investment demand. Some are completely out of stock of some of the most popular bullion products such as gold Krugerrands (1 ozt) and gold American Eagles (1 ozt) and silver American Eagles (1 ozt) and silver bars (1 ozt, 10 ozt and 100 ozt).

There are similar issues internationally and The Times of India reports: "There is a shortage of the yellow metal in the bullion banks and traders."

There are now also significant delays in delivering bullion (usual deliveries of 5 to 10 days are now taking some dealers 4 to 8 weeks to make).
Gold Investments is a bullion broker and due to relationships with many of the major wholesalers in the US and EU has not been affected by these supply and delivery issues and can currently offer all bullion products in quantity for delivery internationally within 10 working days.

Large government mints and refiners are having difficulty meeting the demand and some are rationing supply to large dealers.

Large wholesalers, retailers and institutions such as the Perth Mint are experiencing huge demand and even as spot prices have been falling sharply, there are little or no sellers and buyers are continuing to vastly outnumber sellers.

Another indication of the sharp tightness in the bullion market is seen in the fact that premiums are rising very significantly on nearly all bullion coins and bars. Wholesale prices for some bullion coins have risen 2% to 3% in a matter of weeks.

This huge demand is not being reflected in the futures market where the speculative hot money of large hedge funds and institutions with short term horizons is leading to materially lower prices. Leveraged margin players who were long have had their heads handed to them on a plate as the shorts are pushing prices as low as possible in order to maximise profits.

Clearly, this situation is not sustainable as ultimately the laws of supply and demand of the physical metal will dictate prices and not the speculative and manipulative antics of black box, momentum following traders.

Large, smart money is accumulating physical bullion away from the more risky leveraged casino that is the futures market. Thus, this latest of vicious sell off is set to be another sharp correction in the gold bull market designed to as usual flush out the weak hands. The bounce when it comes will likely be just as dramatic as the shorts attempt to cover en masse. Should some large players decide to stand for delivery of near term futures contracts when they expire, then we could see some real fireworks and gold will be above $1,000/oz in very short order.

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 10:03 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Toch prijst de beurs nog steeds een uitbundige bovengemiddelde groei in.
Raadselachtig....

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 10:45 schreef henkway het volgende:

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welke beurs, de nederlandse??
nou 400 punten ofwel 40% lager dan vorig jaar om deze tijd

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 12:22 schreef waht het volgende:
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Are Pounded

Bernanke Tries to Define What Institutions Fed Could Let Fail

Oil ends at 3-1/2 month low

Large U.S. bank collapse seen ahead

Minyanville: Five Things...

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De economie van de Verenigde Staten belandt de
komende maanden in een recessie. Dat zeggen economen van de
Zwitserse bankgigant UBS. De enige reden dat dit tot nu toe niet is
gebeurd, waren de scherpe renteverlagingen en belastingvoordelen
die aan burgers werden gegund.
De effecten van deze maatregelen verdampen in de tweede helft van
dit jaar, waardoor de VS dan ,,onvermijdelijk uitzicht krijgt op
een recessie", aldus UBS in een rapport.
Ook in de eurozone is er nu reeds sprake van teruglopende groei,
maar het is volgens de Zwitserse bank onwaarschijnlijk dat Europa
in een diepe recessie wegzakt. De vooruitzichten voor Azië zijn
onzeker. De regio maakt hoogstwaarschijnlijk in ieder geval een
,,constant afzwakkende groei" door.

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 13:02 schreef X. het volgende:

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Ik snap niet waarom de dollar nog altijd stijgt tov de euro, ondanks deze berichten.

En daar komt dit nog bij:
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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 08:26 schreef simmu het volgende:
link only, want het is erg lang, *en* tweedelig (de link naar het tweede deel staat onderaan! bovenaan)
http://www.minyanville.co(...)gm-wmu/index/a/18552

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 13:08 schreef X. het volgende:
Op RTL Z werd steeds gezegd dat die stijging van de dollar kwam doordat het vertrouwen in de Amerikaanse economie groter was geworden dan in de eurozone.

Maar deze berichten lijken me daar toch een einde aan te maken.

Het lijkt erop dat de VS dollars in bedrijven blijven pompen. Dus lijkt me geldontwaarding logischer.

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 13:08 schreef X. het volgende:
Op RTL Z werd steeds gezegd dat die stijging van de dollar kwam doordat het vertrouwen in de Amerikaanse economie groter was geworden dan in de eurozone.

Maar deze berichten lijken me daar toch een einde aan te maken.

Het lijkt erop dat de VS dollars in bedrijven blijven pompen. Dus lijkt me geldontwaarding logischer.

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 10:43 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

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Er zijn leuke dingen bezig op de goud en zilvermarkt.

There's no retail 1-ounce silver left on the market

The Gold Eagles are gone. GONE!!!!!!!
What's next.

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 15:59 schreef RonaldRegen het volgende:

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Misschien begrijp ik het niet goed, dat zou kunnen, maar ik vind dit maar een raar bericht. De goud- en zilverprijs is behoorlijk gezakt in een maand tijd (30%), en dat klinkt niet erg logisch voor een markt met zogenaamd grote tekorten.

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[...]
There is a huge demand for both gold and silver right now in India and North America. North American shops are completely bare of silver. Indian shops are empty of both silver and gold. Even the Indian banks don't have any gold or silver. The big western bullion banks, based in New York and London, control both the gold and silver trade. Reports from India are that they are refusing to extend Indian bank lines of credit, forcing the small banks to deliver to clients, collect money, and pay down lines of credit, before being allowed to take delivery of another gold or silver shipment.
[...]
Bottom line: Enough people were buying, when the price was high, to exhaust the supply. Basic economics says that, in a free market, this means the price must rise.

But we don’t live in a world of free markets. Instead, we are living in an Orwellian 1984 double-speak world. Welcome to the world of Fed/PPT, where 2+2=5, blue is yellow, and black is white. All things are as they say they are, rather than as they really must be. Welcome to the world of a controlled business media, where the pundits will do anything and say everything to convince you to forget your math, and your eyesight. No, they tell you. It really isn’t so. What you’re seeing isn’t the way it is. Believe, instead, what we tell you. We can do it! We have special skills. There is a new world order. We can make 2+2=5. Just give us your money, and we’ll show you how!
[...]
We have a disconnect between reality markets and fantasy markets. The COMEX and London Metals Exchange are fantasy markets controlled by the big bullion banks. They must be engaged in market manipulation, because nothing can explain a big price collapse, in the midst of widespread shortages and robust demand. A group of big financial institutions, deeply enmeshed in the global trading system, and heavily involved in the gold and silver market, must be deliberately inducing temporary panic, for their own purposes.
[...]
Wall Street’s investment banks control most of the world's gold and silver markets. They are also entrenched in the overall mesh of all financial markets. Making matters worse, because of the 1987 President’s Executive Order on Working Markets, they are authorized to work together, and in conjunction with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, to manipulate markets without fear of criminal prosecution. They know exactly where the stop-loss orders are, and how much flooding of paper claims for gold and silver would be needed to trigger them. They are, therefore, perfectly positioned to carry out the nefarious scheme I have outlines. The ultimate aim, of course, would be to destroy investor confidence, by collapsing the price for a few weeks. This would allow them to unload their own exposure at a very low cost, while the majority of market participants are temporarily shell-shocked, and in retreat.
[...]
But, it’s not cheap to manipulate markets. It will probably cost over a billion dollars to subsidize the negative lease rates. The only logical reason to spend such a huge amount of money, is if you are going to get an even bigger benefit from doing so. They must be very worried about losing far more. Once again, that implies that some VERY bad economic news is about to be released. Skeptical? How much worse can the economy get? It can get much worse! So, what’s in store? A series of huge bank failures, maybe? IndyMac collapsed two weeks ago. Are we going to see the collapse of Washington Mutual (WM)? National City Bank (NCC)? Someone else?
[...]

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Op dinsdag 19 augustus 2008 17:13 schreef geenID het volgende:
Wat een artikel.

En hoe zit het dan met een prijsstijging in Q2 van dit jaar terwijl demand daalde met 19% yoy? Plus de hele commodity sector zit in een slump. Doe de USD er bij (eigenlijk de verslechterde situatie in Japan/EU) plus nog wat cijfers en de daling is wel te onderbouwen.

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Lehman In Deep Trouble

Bloomberg is reporting Lehman May Report $4 Billion Writedown, JPMorgan Says.

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may write down about $4 billion in credit-related investments and other assets when it reports fiscal third-quarter earnings, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said.

Lehman may mark down some of its $61 billion of mortgage and other asset-backed securities after benchmark residential and commercial mortgage-related indexes declined by as much as 20 percent, the analysts wrote.

Lehman, the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds before the subprime market collapsed, has slumped 77 percent in New York trading as it struggles to pare its debt holdings. The bank has reported writedowns and credit losses of $8.2 billion in the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The analysts cut their per-share estimate for the third quarter to a loss of $3.30 from a 35-cent profit. They expect Lehman to report a loss of $6.77 a share for the full year, compared with their earlier forecast of a $2.35 loss.

"Lehman continues to have significant exposure to mortgages and asset backed securities," JPMorgan's Worthington said in the report. "We believe management wants to leave its mortgage troubles behind and restore confidence."

Securities firms are cutting their holdings of riskier loans and selling assets to shore up capital. Lehman wants to sell 20 percent of its more than $60 billion of "distressed" assets in the third quarter, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Guy Moszkowski, said in a July 28 note to clients. He expects the firm to post a $2.5 billion writedown on home loans in the quarter.

The securities firm will probably retain its Neuberger Berman LLC asset-management unit, the JPMorgan analysts said. "We don't think the ratings agencies would welcome this divestiture," they added.

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Op woensdag 20 augustus 2008 00:17 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAIG
Goldman won’t say it, but we will. AIG is going the way of the monolines… but on a much larger scale.

Dan kan deze er ook wel bij.


Begint er op te lijken dat er een nieuwe tsunami komt.

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Op woensdag 20 augustus 2008 11:32 schreef X. het volgende:
Toch zakt de dollar nog steeds niet echt weg.