Bulls, Bears & Bucks #15: 400 punten sneuvelt

quote:

Take Downs and Drawing the Wrong Straw
wallstreetexaminer
Saturday, July 12th, 2008 at 9:23 AM

The FDIC take down of IndyMac has occurred. This bank had $19.06 billion in deposits, and from the FDIC site it looks like the insurance pool will eat $4-8 billion on this one. With about $52 billion in FDIC reserves on hand, we can get some idea of the possible burn rate as this process unfolds with other banks.


From Aaron Krowne’s Bank Implode-Meter comes a comment about IndyMac defaulted homebuilder loans, and the problems and costs associated with half constructed housing projects. Aaron also offers some comments on Wachovia who appears to have brought in a Paulsen crony from Goldman Sachs. This is probably significant to my general theory that the last six months of the Bush administration will mark one of the greatest periods of systematic looting in American history. Never again will so many assets be handed off to regulators and corrupt apparatcheks for “distribution” to the privileged. This may make the “privatization” of the Soviet Union to Russian oligarchs look like a cake walk. Aaron also mentions that fact that JP Morgan will likely make a move in the Southeast. Wachovia? Maybe, but there are also a slew of smaller regional banks in that region too.

In asking the question of who gets looted and who gets the distressed pickings, I think it is important to consider who is most exposed. The answer is the investment banks who have thin capital bases relative to their fictitious capital holdings and obligations. The biggest plum of all are the assets of GSE’s Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Therefore I think we are going to see them dropping one by one like flies. And it really does look like the next crisis is Lehman Brothers. It is not that LEH is terribly more exposed than the others, it’s just that they apparently drew the wrong straw. I will also mention that with enormous amounts of wealth already transferred to oil sheiks and Asians that you can look for them to be the new owners of many marked down American assets. They have the purse, and the only nationality or race that is important is the green. You can count on that as much as you can count on the sun going down at night. Follow that ball.

Source: Reggie Middleton

I believe the pile on and stealing of American banks will happen at a very rapid pace, maybe even within just a few weeks. It really has to be a done deal by the end of this year. The events that tipped me off were wholesale downgrades of virtually all regional banks by Goldman Sachs, Citicorp and a chorus of lacky lapdogs in June. In addition the old Risklove rabble is running stock prices of banks into the ground with extremely aggressive short selling. For example short positions as % of float on June 15, (probably even higher now) : FHN 25.8%, CNB 36.3%, NCC 20.4%, SNV 19%, RF 12.3%, And now as if problems didn’t exist before, there is suddenly a panic recognition phase about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. What a coincidence! And what a coincidence that the overdue closure if IndyMac occurred this week. And next week we get a slew of 2nd quarter bank reports.

Allow me to give you a quick simplified primer (we can get more anal in the comments if you wish) on banks. Banking is a great business in almost all times. That is why I am convinced the great monied interests are lathered up for a crisis about now and before Paulsen and his lapdog Bush leaves office. A generic bank takes cheap deposits, lends to credit worthy businesses and Gente, and collects a spread of say 3-3.5%, minus operating expenses, netting out around 2.8%. Just using rounded numbers, for each dollar of capital skin in the game, they can take in deposits of $10, and make loans, and net out 28 cents against the Skin. Losses are then subtracted off, and the remaining profit is added to the Skin. If losses are running higher than previously anticipated (universal now) than it is reserved for and taken off of Skin.

In a banking crisis it is important to look at potential losses. One way to ball park whether the Skin shareholders are going down or to what degree they will be diluted is called the Texas ratio. This takes non-performing loans divided into tangible equity capital plus loan loss reserves. It is important to recognize that a non-performing loan is not a complete loss. Recoveries are a complete topic in and of itself, that I will attempt to shed light on as this phase unfolds. There are recoveries especially on mortgages. Figure that a ratio of 50% jeopardizes not only all the profit of banking, but also damages the leverage capital that is needed to exist as a bank. That bank will need to raise capital (preferred or common equity) to make that up, and right now the ability to do so is severe constrained even for more solid lower Texas ratio banks. The other method is as ominous, reduce or liquidate loans to bring in line with depleted capital.


We are about to get quite a snap shot of American banking conditions at mid-year, buckle your seat belts. If there is interest, I am available to respond to and develop more discussion on this specific topic all weekend. I am going to ask that all comments on today’s post be directly related to this topic.

quote:

Op zaterdag 12 juli 2008 20:44 schreef Ali_Kannibali het volgende:
Wat gaat er nu gebeuren? Krijgen we nu dat domino-effect of iets?

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 09:08 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:
Filmpje is voor mij niet te laden helaas.. maar hoeveel is er al bekend/uit de markt van die 1.6 triljard?

quote:

* Merrill Lynch - $37.5B/*/$34.4B (1)
Posted on July 11, 2008 8:03 PM
* Lehman Brothers - $7.2B/$6B/$42 (2)
Posted on July 11, 2008 10:05 AM
* Wachovia - $6.8B/$10.5B/$30.4B (4)
Posted on July 10, 2008 11:23 AM
* Bank of America - $4.4B/*/$31.4B (4)
Posted on July 8, 2008 12:16 PM
* Citigroup - $69.1B/$36B/$22.7B (7)
Posted on July 7, 2008 1:13 PM
* Barclay’s PLC - $6.4B/$7.8B (0)
Posted on June 30, 2008 6:02 PM
* HBOS PLC - $2.5B/$4B (0)
Posted on June 25, 2008 1:45 PM
* JP Morgan Chase - $9.9B (3)
Posted on June 23, 2008 5:45 PM
* Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce(CIBC) - $6.7B (0)
Posted on June 23, 2008 11:44 AM
* Wells Fargo - $2.9B/0/$23B (2)
Posted on June 21, 2008 12:09 PM
* Morgan Stanley - $23.2B (0)
Posted on June 19, 2008 1:38 PM
* Fifth Third Bancorp - $155M/$2B (0)
Posted on June 18, 2008 5:16 PM
* Goldman Sachs - $6.2B (3)
Posted on June 17, 2008 5:15 PM
* National City - $200M (0)
Posted on June 6, 2008 10:45 AM
* Royal Bank of Scotland - $3.6B/$24B (2)
Posted on June 4, 2008 5:34 PM
* Societe Generale SA- $13.7 /$8.5B (0)
Posted on June 4, 2008 3:08 PM
* BNP Paribas SA-$2.5B/ $0 cash (0)
Posted on June 4, 2008 2:39 PM
* Washington Mutual - $1.6B (2)
Posted on June 2, 2008 1:03 PM
* UBS - $45.0B/$41.5B (2)
Posted on June 1, 2008 11:22 AM
* Royal Bank of Canada - $1.4B (0)
Posted on May 29, 2008 6:07 PM
* Bank of Montreal (BMO) - $611M (0)
Posted on May 29, 2008 1:02 PM
* Mizuho MFG - $5.4B (0)
Posted on May 22, 2008 2:09 PM
* Bayern LB - $9.8B (0)
Posted on May 19, 2008 7:42 AM
* WestLB AG - $4.8B (0)
Posted on May 19, 2008 7:35 AM
* Natixis - $3.4B (1)
Posted on May 19, 2008 7:31 AM
* HSBC Bank PLC - $6.6B (0)
Posted on May 19, 2008 5:32 AM
* Credit Agricole SA-$13.8B (0)
Posted on May 12, 2008 5:18 PM
* Credit Suisse - $5.95B (0)
Posted on May 2, 2008 5:20 PM
* Deutsche Bank - $18.6B (1)
Posted on May 2, 2008 5:19 PM
* Mitsubishi Financial Group - $760M (0)
Posted on April 23, 2008 12:54 AM
* US Bancorp - $1.2B (0)
Posted on April 16, 2008 12:13 PM
* SunTrust - $718.7M-$1.5 B (1)
Posted on April 13, 2008 6:33 PM
* Bank of NY Mellon - $118M (0)
Posted on April 9, 2008 11:19 AM
* Sovereign Bancorp - $1.580B (0)
Posted on April 8, 2008 1:29 PM
* IKB - $12.91B (0)
Posted on March 20, 2008 8:13 PM
* DZ BANK AG - $2.1B (0)
Posted on March 7, 2008 9:52 PM
* HSBC - $26.5B (0)
Posted on March 5, 2008 5:25 PM
* Commerzbank - $855M (1)
Posted on February 15, 2008 9:48 AM

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 09:20 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:
Precies, hoewel niemand opschiet met een complete systeemcrash lijkt dat doemscenario (een van de velen overigens ) toch dichterbij te komen voor mijn gevoel.

quote:

Uit het onderzoek van KPMG blijkt dat bijna 60% van de traditionele vermogensbeheerders gebruik maakt van derivaten. Het gebruik van hedge funds ligt met 61% zelfs hoger.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 09:31 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:
Inderdaad boeiend, en dezelfde vraag die ik me twee weke geleden stelde..

Waarom HSBC zo lekker stabiel lijkt, het kan gewoon niet goed zijn, al zitten ze maar voor een klein deel in de VS.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 09:41 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

[..]

HSBC was wel de instelling die het eerste aan de bel trok bij de aanloop van de kredietcrisis. Geen idee hoe ze met hun posten hebben liggen schuiven (over de afgelopen 2 jr). Maar als ik de cijfers bekijk lijkt het erop dat ze N-America hebben losgelaten. Maar goed... ook in China en India vallen klappen.... de inflatie is daar double digits.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 09:44 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

[..]

alleen is iedereen nog druk doende met de verdere groei van de problemen in de VS/UK/Europa voordat er naar India en China gekeken wordt.. kan nog een harde klap worden dus... volgend jaar dan maar? Gewoon 1 voor 1 de problemen achter elkaar zetten is wel zo overzichtelijk

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 10:05 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:
2010-2012, dus dit gezeik gaat nog vier jaar (minimaal!) duren... o jee...

Volgens mij staan de geldpersen al te draaien om toch maar vooral zoveel mogelijk dollars te hebbe mocht het nog fouter gaan.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 09:08 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

[..]

Filmpje is voor mij niet te laden helaas.. maar hoeveel is er al bekend/uit de markt van die 1.6 triljard?

En wat voor Fannie en Freddie? dat is 5 triljard USD die 'gered' moet worden..

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 10:37 schreef Wheelgunner het volgende:

[..]

1,6 triljard? Dat is 1.600.000.000.000 miljard...

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 10:37 schreef Wheelgunner het volgende:

[..]

1,6 triljard? Dat is 1.600.000.000.000 miljard...

quote:

Obama Says U.S. May Not Take Any Action to Aid Fannie, Freddie
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Democrat Barack Obama left open the possibility that the federal government won't need to take any steps to aid mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying it needs to watch the evolving situation before making a decision.

“I think we need to watch carefully to see how it plays out before we make a decision about which steps need to be taken, if any,” Obama, 46, said aboard his campaign plane from Chicago to San Diego late Saturday. It was the first time Obama addressed concerns over the stability of the two firms that own or guarantee almost half the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages.

Obama, his party's presumptive presidential nominee, said he's committed to making sure there's liquidity in the housing markets and that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “play critical roles in that process.” Obama said he's been monitoring the situation “closely”' and that it's “of extraordinary concern.” If the government were to step in and provide the firms with more liquidity, “there are a lot of different definitions of what a bailout would look like,” Obama, an Illinois senator, said without providing specifics.

“There are issues related to the short term liquidity — can they borrow money — versus issues related to whether the underlying assets of the two corporations are really unsound,” he said.

Mortgage Crisis
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Friday signaled that a government takeover of the two firms, the biggest buyers of U.S. mortgages, won't be necessary, saying they should continue as shareholder-owned companies with federal charters. Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, told reporters July 11 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would “very likely require some kind of government assistance,” and while he didn't know what the best immediate action would be, McCain said he'd “support effective action to keep them from going under.”

Obama said the “bigger problem” is the broader mortgage crisis and that with “some prudent steps by the government that we'll be able to stabilize the situation.”

He praised the $300 billion housing rescue package that the Senate passed this week and called on President George W. Bush to sign it, saying the U.S. has moved into a recession and it's necessary to move “swiftly” on a final housing bill. Obama also reiterated his call for an additional $50 billion stimulus package. Still, he said, the Senate housing bill “is not the end-all, be-all; there's going to still be some working out to do.”

quote:

Beware of Sending Fannie and Freddie Stock to Zero
The press and many professional stock analysts are predicting that Fannie Mae’s (FNM) and Freddie Mac’s (FRE) stock price will go to zero in a government bailout. The level of fear is so intense that the shorts have hit without caution. At the same time, the press and Wall Street professionals are saying bondholders will be safer with a government bailout. Nobody really knows what form a bailout would take or even if one is necessary. But we are being told to watch the Freddie Monday debt offering intently for clues.

While I think most of the fear mongering is engineered by the shorts, I don’t know if the GSE’s “accounting insolvency” will become a real liquidity crisis. Remember that the GSE’s only guarantee a stream of payments, not immediate payout on default. Write downs and cash flow are two entirely different things.

Let’s say the basis for fear is sound and the Treasury opts to kill the Fannie and Freddie equity. How does this affect the rest of the banking system? This would be the second bailout under Treasury Secretary Paulson’s “moral hazard” rhetoric. Just like Bear Stearns (JPM), Paulson would want to make sure that Fannie and Freddie equity holders are hurt. What would stop him?

All this rush to judgment is forgetting that once even one more pivotal financial institution’s shareholders are wiped out, no other financial companies will be able to raise capital. The fear of equity investors would be so great that Citibank (C), Lehman (LEH), Merrill Lynch (MER), and even venerable JP Morgan (JPM) will completely lose access to raising new equity. What’s more, current outstanding equity prices will plummet. Paulson cannot afford this level of moral hazard.

Paulson is being awakened to the need to balance moral hazard with building confidence. Too much moral hazard and banks, along with the GSEs will be forced to shrink their balance sheets. This will further apply the brakes to the economy. I believe Bear Stearns was enough moral hazard; now is the time to rebuild confidence.

Two proposals that surfaced in the press that make sense: the Treasury buying GSE preferred stock and the Treasury or Fed extending a line of credit to the GSEs. The Treasury purchase of convertible preferred stock would create a major delusion, but current shareholders would still be able to participate in the recovery. Opening the discount window or expanding the Treasury’s line of credit would instill immediate confidence in the GSE debt. Both of these actions would allow the GSEs to return from technical insolvency.

The worst moral hazard would be to put the GSEs into receivership. Then the government would equate GSE debt with treasuries. This would give Congress free will to use the GSEs to promote social policy with no constraints, and substantially grow the public debt. No conservative administration can take comfort in this.

I am sure Paulson does not want to constrain the entire banking system to teach Fannie and Freddie shareholders a lesson. The GSEs might never have to access the line anyway, but just having it would actually kill the shorts. The side effect might be to save Lehman too.

quote:

Op zaterdag 12 juli 2008 18:53 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:
Nu nog GM wat omvalt en de chaos is compleet

quote:

Grootste hypotheekverstrekker Amerika stort ineen

zaterdag 12 juli 2008 10:07

De nog steeds uitdijende kredietcrisis in Amerika heeft zijn grootste slachtoffer tot nu toe gemaakt: IndyMac Bank, een van de grootste aanbieders van hypotheken is overgenomen door de Amerikaanse overheid.

Amerikaanse hypotheekverstrekkers nog steeds in problemen door dalende huizenprijzen Amerikaanse hypotheekverstrekkers nog steeds in problemen door dalende huizenprijzen

Het Federale Bureau Toezicht Spaarbanken (OTS) heeft vrijdag de controle over de bank overgenomen omdat werd gevreesd dat er niet meer aan de betalingsverplichtingen kon worden voldaan.

'Deze instellingen faalde vandaag vanwege een liquiditeitscrisis,' verklaarde OTS-directeur John Reich. Maandag gaat de bank weer open onder de naam IndyMac Federal Bank FSB.

Overleven
IndyMac is de grootste spaar- en hypotheekbank van de VS en de op één na grootste financiële instelling die er ineenstort, na de ondergang van de Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Company in 1984.

Het bedrijf kwam in de problemen omdat steeds meer spaarders geld van hun rekening begonnen te halen, nadat de Democratische senator van New York, Charles Schumer, zich eind juni openlijk afvroeg of IndyMac de crisis wel kon overleven. In bijna twee weken werd er vervolgens ruim 800 miljoen dollar (502 miljoen euro) teruggetrokken.

Reddingsplan
De IndyMac Bank is dit jaar de vijfde instelling die de crisis - veroorzaakt door dalende huizenprijzen en te gemakkelijk verstrekte hypotheken - niet overleeft.

Ook andere hypotheekaanbieders verkeren in zwaar weer: Freddie Mac en Fannie Mae, de twee grootste spelers, zagen hun beurskoers gisteren met 50 procent dalen.

De koersen herstelden pas toen de Amerikaanse minister van Financiën Henry Paulson verklaarde dat hij er alles aan doet om de twee bedrijven te steunen. Plannen voor een omvangrijk reddingsplan voor hypotheekverstrekkers wilde hij volgens de Britse zender BBC niet bevestigen.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 13:05 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

[..]

hmjah, die dollars lagen nog te drogen!

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 13:01 schreef pberends het volgende:
Ik snap iets niet:
[..]

Je gaat me toch niet zeggen dat een uberbank en uberhypotheekverstrekker als IndyMac niet eens een lousy 800 miljoen dollar cash achter de hand heeft?

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 12:34 schreef Martijn_77 het volgende:

[..]

Dan gaat er veel meer in de USA. Dan gfa je een domino effect krijgen

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 13:05 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:

[..]

hmjah, die dollars lagen nog te drogen!

quote:

“If the state takes away the market discipline that compels the recognition of mistakes…capitalism can generate losses and misallocation of resources even faster than socialism.”

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 13:31 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

Dan gaat Fortis er ook aan , want die 8 miljard kan ook zo op zijn, die banken hebben vaak belangen in elkaar

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 16:24 schreef dewaal het volgende:

[..]

Dat zal niet gebeuren dat Fortis omvalt.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 17:21 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

Ik denk dat grote instituten hun geld al weg halen bij Fortis en bij de RABO onderbrengen, ofniet??

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 17:45 schreef dewaal het volgende:

[..]

Dat denk ik niet. Zelfs balkenende zei FORTIS valt niet om.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 18:48 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
Maandag gaan we gewoon omhoog hoor.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 18:50 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

ok, maar de trend is down

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 18:48 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
Maandag gaan we gewoon omhoog hoor.

quote:

India's Inflation Accelerates to Fastest in More Than 13 Years

By Kartik Goyal

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- India's inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since 1995, raising concerns the central bank will increase borrowing costs for a third time this year.

Wholesale prices rose 11.89 percent in the week to June 28, after gaining 11.63 percent in the previous week, commerce ministry spokesman Rajeev Jain told Bloomberg News in an interview today. Economists expected an 11.75 percent increase.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 18:54 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

[..]

Tot aan de beursopening van de States.
Ik verwacht nogal wat vuurwerk...

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 17:45 schreef dewaal het volgende:

[..]

Dat denk ik niet. Zelfs balkenende zei FORTIS valt niet om.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 17:45 schreef dewaal het volgende:

[..]

Dat denk ik niet. Zelfs balkenende zei FORTIS valt niet om.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 19:34 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

[..]

Niet te hopen, heb een paar calletjes lopen

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 20:24 schreef henkway het volgende:

[..]

nou er is veel angst in de markt, zeker nu net op TV was dat china de bodem in Olie putten ziet en ieder jaar MINDER olie gaat pompen, dus niet, Niet meer, nee MINDER.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 20:12 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
pberends, deze al gezien?

Straight Talk On The Economy?

Ron Paul exposes John McCain: Crooked Talk Express

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 20:35 schreef Lyrebird het volgende:

[..]

En je gelooft dat? Je onderschat de wil van de consument en de kracht van de markt.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 22:42 schreef pberends het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

A.K.A. het kankergezwel van Amerika.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 22:42 schreef pberends het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

A.K.A. het kankergezwel van Amerika.

quote:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The White House and the Federal Reserve moved Sunday to prevent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from failing. In a statement, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the global reach of Fannie and Freddie necessitated unprecedented action. The Treasury has moved to increase its existing line of credit to Fannie and Freddie. In addition, Treasury have been given the power to buy the two companies stock. In a separate vote, the Fed board of governors voted to open its discount window lending facility to Fannie and Freddie. In return, Paulson asked Congress to rework a measure in the housing bill moving through Congress to give the Fed a formal role to work with the new GSE regulator that the legislation would create.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 00:44 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

[..]

S&P/Dow futures staan in de plus.
Olie iets terug.
Morgen zal Europa 1 - 2 pct hoger openen.

quote:

Analysts Say More Banks Will Fail

As home prices continue to decline and loan defaults mount, federal regulators are bracing for dozens of American banks to fail over the next year.

But after a large mortgage lender in California collapsed late Friday, Wall Street analysts began posing two crucial questions: Just how many banks might falter? And, more urgently, which one could be next?

The nation’s banks are in far less danger than they were in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 federally insured institutions went under during the savings-and-loan crisis. The debacle, the greatest collapse of American financial institutions since the Depression, prompted a government bailout that cost taxpayers about $125 billion.

But the troubles are growing so rapidly at some small and midsize banks that as many as 150 out of the 7,500 banks nationwide could fail over the next 12 to 18 months, analysts say. Other lenders are likely to shut branches or seek mergers.

“Everybody is drawing up lists, trying to figure out who the next bank is, No. 1, and No. 2, how many of them are there,” said Richard X. Bove, the banking analyst with Ladenburg Thalmann, who released a list of troubled banks over the weekend. “And No. 3, from the standpoint of Washington, how badly is it going to affect the economy?”

Many investors are on edge after federal regulators seized the California lender, IndyMac Bank, one of the nation’s largest savings and loans, last week. With $32 billion in assets, IndyMac, a spinoff of the Countrywide Financial Corporation, was the biggest American lender to fail in more than two decades.

Now, as the Bush administration grapples with the crisis at the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a rush of earnings reports in the coming days and weeks from some of the nation’s largest financial companies are likely to provide more gloomy reminders about the sorry state of the industry.

The future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is vital to the banks, savings and loans and credit unions, which own $1.3 trillion of securities issued or guaranteed by the two mortgage companies. If the mortgage giants ever defaulted on those obligations, banks might be forced to raise billions of dollars in additional capital.

The large institutions set to report results this week, including Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, are in no danger of failing, but some are expected to report more multibillion-dollar write-offs.

But time may be running out for some small and midsize lenders. They vary in size and location, but their common woe is the collapsed real estate market and souring mortgage loans. Most of these banks are far smaller than the industry giants that have drawn so much scrutiny from regulators and investors.

Still, only six lenders have failed so far this year, including IndyMac. In 1994, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation listed 575 banks that it considered to be troubled. As of this spring, the agency was worried about just 90 banks. That number may go up in August, when the government releases an updated list.

“Failed banks are a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator,” said William Isaac, who was chairman of the F.D.I.C. in the early 1980s and is now the chairman of the Secura Group, a finance consulting firm in Virginia. “So you will see more troubled, more failed banks this year.”

And yet IndyMac, one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, was not on the government’s troubled bank list this spring — an indication that other troubled banks may be below the radar.

The F.D.I.C. has $53 billion set aside to reimburse consumers for deposits lost at failed banks. IndyMac will eat up $4 billion to $8 billion of that fund, the agency estimates, and that could force it to raise more money from the banks that it insures.

The agency does not disclose which banks it thinks are troubled. But analysts are circulating their own lists, and short sellers — investors who bet against stocks — are piling on. In recent weeks, the share prices of some regional banks, like the BankUnited Financial Corporation, in Florida, and the Downey Financial Corporation, in California, have stumbled hard amid concern about their financial health. A BankUnited spokeswoman said the lender had largely avoided risky subprime loans.

In his “Who Is Next?” report over the weekend, Mr. Bove listed the fraction of loans at banks that are nonperforming, meaning, for example, that the assets have been foreclosed on or that payments are 90 days past due. He came up with what he called a danger zone, which was a percentage above 5 percent. Seven banks fell in this category.

An important issue for the regional and community banks will be whether they have managed to sell their riskiest loans to Wall Street firms.

And the government may have fewer failures than in the past because private investment funds might buy some troubled lenders. Regulators are considering rule changes that would allow private equity firms to buy larger shares of banks, and several prominent investors, like Wilbur Ross, have raised funds to leap in.

quote:

As home prices continue to decline and loan defaults mount, federal regulators are bracing for dozens of American banks to fail over the next year.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 06:58 schreef Q. het volgende:

[..]

En iedereen maar zeggen dat Maurice Lippens gek is...

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 23:28 schreef Lyrebird het volgende:

[..]

800 billion / 20000 = 16 miljoen banen verdwenen? Met een unemployment rate van 4.6% en een labor force van 153.1 million kom je uit op 7 miljoen mensen zonder baan. Zonder jouw trade deficit hadden we dus een tekort van 9 miljoen legale arbeiders, want de statistieken houden geen rekenening met de meer dan 10 miljoen hispanics die illegaal in de VS aan de slag zijn.

quote:

Op zondag 13 juli 2008 23:28 schreef Lyrebird het volgende:

[..]

800 billion / 20000 = 16 miljoen banen verdwenen? Met een unemployment rate van 4.6% en een labor force van 153.1 million kom je uit op 7 miljoen mensen zonder baan. Zonder jouw trade deficit hadden we dus een tekort van 9 miljoen legale arbeiders, want de statistieken houden geen rekenening met de meer dan 10 miljoen hispanics die illegaal in de VS aan de slag zijn.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:43 schreef digitaLL het volgende:
De werkloosheid is helemaal niet zo laag als de US overheid beweert. Het zijn gemanipuleerde cijfers.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:43 schreef pberends het volgende:
Overheid VS helpt hypotheekbanken

.

Dit gaat toch echt nergens meer over. Welke Amerikaans bedrijf kan nog wel zijn eigen broek ophouden? Alleen Google en Microsoft?

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:48 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Dat ook nog eens natuurlijk. Toch zie je het handelstekort niet duidelijk terug in de cijfers ivm de enorme geldcreatie.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:43 schreef pberends het volgende:
Overheid VS helpt hypotheekbanken

.

Dit gaat toch echt nergens meer over. Welke Amerikaans bedrijf kan nog wel zijn eigen broek ophouden? Alleen Google en Microsoft?

quote:

Oil Brings Americans Closer to OPEC Debtor Dependence

By Daniel Kruger
Enlarge Image/Details

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleum exporting nations from Saudi Arabia to Russia are not only charging Americans record high prices for fuel, they are also poised to become the biggest creditor to the U.S. government.

Holdings of Treasuries by oil producers and institutions such as U.K. banks that are proxies for Middle East nations rose 44 percent this year to $510.8 billion through April, four times faster than the rest of the world, according to the Treasury Department's most recent data. At the current pace, they'll surpass Japan, which holds $592.2 billion, as the largest owner this month.

While the investment of so-called petrodollars into government debt is helping to temper a rise in borrowing costs as the U.S. finances a record budget deficit, it highlights America's dependence on foreign money. New York's Chrysler Building was bought last week by Middle East investors.

``We should be very happy that they're buying U.S. Treasuries because they're keeping interest rates low, and that's a positive for bond investors,'' said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG's Private Wealth Management unit in New York.

................

quote:

China's Currency Reserves Rise 36% to $1.81 Trillion

By Nipa Piboontanasawat

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- China's foreign-exchange reserves, the world's biggest, climbed to a record $1.81 trillion at the end of June as regulators failed to stem inflows of speculative capital from abroad.

Currency holdings rose 35.7 percent from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China said today on its Web site. The assets grew $126.6 billion from the end of March, after a $153.9 billion gain, the biggest on record, in the first quarter.

Chinese regulators are adding controls this month to limit ``hot money'' inflows from investors betting the yuan will keep appreciating after 25 straight monthly gains. The trade surplus, foreign direct investment and speculative capital have flooded the world's fourth-biggest economy with cash, threatening to stoke inflation that rose to a 12-year high in February.

``A huge amount of money is coming into China and betting on the Chinese currency,'' said Dwyfor Evans, an economist at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong. ``This is creating an inflation impact and has become a big worry for policy makers.''

The yuan has climbed versus the U.S. dollar every month since May 2006. It rose today to the highest since a peg to the dollar was scrapped in 2005, trading at 6.8310 versus the dollar as of 12:17 p.m. in Shanghai.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:48 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]

Dat ook nog eens natuurlijk. Toch zie je het handelstekort niet duidelijk terug in de cijfers ivm de enorme geldcreatie.

quote:

Bernanke blij met bedrijfsresultaten techbedrijven

Uitgegeven: 19 juni 2009, 10:55

Fed-voorzitter Bernanke is niet ongerust over het feit dat alleen nog verschillende techbedrijven winsten boeken. Buiten de technologische sector om maken Amerikaanse bedrijven geen van allen winst na alle afboekingen ten gevolge van de kredietcrisis en de recessie. Bernanke: "We onderzoeken de mogelijkheden voor een techbubble 2.0. Dit moet Amerika uit een recessie helpen."

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 09:37 schreef pberends het volgende:
[..]

[..]

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 10:19 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

[..]

Heb je dat persbericht nou zelf verzonnen?

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:43 schreef digitaLL het volgende:
De werkloosheid is helemaal niet zo laag als de US overheid beweert. Het zijn gemanipuleerde cijfers.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 09:48 schreef Xith het volgende:
"We onderzoeken de mogelijkheden voor een techbubble 2.0. Dit moet Amerika uit een recessie helpen."

Net zoals ze woningmarkt bubbel ze uit de internet bubbel kreeg... het gaat maar door

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 11:55 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:

[..]

hoe doen ze dat dan?

want ik heb geen idee wat de termen betekenen die in de grafiek staan.

en 14% lijkt mij wel erg hoog

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 12:00 schreef simmu het volgende:


dat doen ze bijvoorbeeld door niet mee te rekenen dat mensen minder moeten gaan werken. dus als iemand eerst 40 uur werkte voor 1 baas, en toen nog maar 10 voor dezelfde baas, dan telt dat gewoon voor een baan. als die persoon dan (dus) nog 3 baantjes voor dergelijke uren erbij neemt (wat in constructie geregeld voorkomt nu) telt die ene persoon dus voor 4 vacatures.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 11:55 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:

[..]

hoe doen ze dat dan?

want ik heb geen idee wat de termen betekenen die in de grafiek staan.

en 14% lijkt mij wel erg hoog

quote:

* The Birth/Death model contributed 317,000 adds.
* That's not a typo. That's 317 thousand adds.
* According to Minyanville Professor Scott Reamer, since 1999 there has been only one other month in which the add was bigger, January 2004.
* For some perspective, in the 36 month period ending March 2002 - 36 months - the total adds from the birth/death model were 353,000. Over 36 months.
* Since the beginning of the year, the birth/death model has accounted for a net 388,000 jobs.
* Last year it added 964,000 jobs.
* The kicker is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics refuses to allow academics and commercial economists access to the models they use for the birth/death additions.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 10:19 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

[..]

Heb je dat persbericht nou zelf verzonnen?

quote:

VS Vandaag: Wall Street opent hoger na steun Freddie, Fannie

14 juli 2008, 15:23 uur | FD.nl/DJ

AMSTERDAM (FD.nl/DJ)--Wall Street zal maandag naar verwachting hoger openen, nadat de Amerikaanse overheid de hypotheekverstrekkers Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac te hulp schoot en Anheuser-Busch een akkoord bereikte met Inbev over een overname door de Belgische brouwer.

De futures van de Amerikaanse beurzen geven een half uur voor opening aan dat de Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) en de Nasdaq een hogere opening tegemoet gaan.

De S&P 500 futures staan 15,60 punten hoger op 1.255,40. Afgezet tegen de fair value, zal de DJIA omgerekend 136,58 punten hoger openen.

De Nasdaq 100 futures staan 20,75 punten hoger op 1.841,25. Afgezet tegen de fair value zal de Nasdaq 23,40 punten hoger openen ten opzichte van het slot van gisteren.

Amerikaanse aandelenmarkten daalden vrijdag vanwege zorgen over de financiele gezondheid van Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac. De Amerikaanse overheid schoot de twee echter te hulp met een noodkredietfaciliteit. Het ministerie van Financien wil daarnaast toestemming vragen om aandelen van de beide ondernemingen te kopen en de kredietlijn uit te breiden.

Op dit nieuws steeg de dollar, terwijl de prijs voor een vat ruwe olie daalde.

Verder was Anheuser-Busch in het nieuws. De Belgisch-Braziliaanse bierbrouwer InBev heeft een akkoord bereikt met Anheuser-Busch over een overname van de Amerikaanse bierbrouwer. De aandeelhouders van Anheuser-Busch ontvangen $70 per aandeel, waarmee de totale waarde van de overname $52 mrd bedraagt.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 16:23 schreef pberends het volgende:
Zelfs die zoutloze cartoonist van Nu.nl besteedt er aandacht aan:

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

HousingPANIC URGENT WARNING TO AMERICANS - GET YOUR MONEY OUT OF THE BANKS NOW


* Do NOT keep any money beyond FDIC limits in ANY bank

* Assume your bank will fail - do your own due diligence. Ask questions. Get it in writing.

* Are your mutual funds protected? Your trading accounts? Your CD's? Your money markets? Your 401k's? Know who has your money, and if it's protected

* Especially avoid banks exposed to Subprime, Alt-A and Option ARM lending

* Avoid all banks with concentrations in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona

* Get ready for the next implosion - construction loans going bad in droves

* Tell your friends and family. Last one out's a rotten egg.

* You ain't ever seen anything like this folks. Unless your were alive in 1929.

* Get popcorn. Lots and lots of popcorn.

Many more US bank failures likely after IndyMac

NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - U.S. banks may fail in far greater numbers following the collapse of the big mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp Inc, straining a financial system seeking stability after years of lending excesses.

More than 300 banks could fail in the next three years, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy, who had in February estimated no more than 150.

quote:

Op maandag 14 juli 2008 21:20 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

[..]

Panic is all we need.

quote:

IndyMac depositors line up for cash after seizure

Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:17pm EDT

powered by SphereBy Gina Keating

PASADENA, California (Reuters) - Hundreds of worried IndyMac Bancorp Inc customers descended on the company's branches on Monday to withdraw their money, after regulators seized what was once one of the largest mortgage lenders in the United States.

Regulators took over the Pasadena-based lender on Friday after a bank run in which customers -- panicked over IndyMac's survival prospects -- withdrew $1.3 billion over 11 business days, regulators said.

At a branch at IndyMac's headquarters, customers began arriving at 4 a.m., five hours before the doors opened. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp now operates the thrift's 33 Southern California branches.

"I didn't think anything like this would happen," said retired teacher Charles Tengeri from Pasadena, who was first to emerge from the branch after withdrawing $171,000 -- about two-thirds of his life savings. "I withdrew as much as I could. I know it's going to take a little time."

The FDIC said the renamed IndyMac Federal Bank will cover insured deposits, mostly up to $100,000, and initially cover 50 percent of uninsured deposits.

"I have $360,000 in this bank, and I was misled by this bank," said Robert Clark, a Glendale resident. "I gave the names of my mother, my sister and my brother on the account so I thought I would be insured. I don't know what to do. I really don't know what to do."

John Bovenzi, an FDIC official working as IndyMac Federal's chief executive, talked with customers as they waited for the doors to open, assuring one that "this bank is as safe and as sound as any bank in the country right now."

The FDIC is hoping to sell IndyMac within 90 days. Among IndyMac's assets are a rapidly deteriorating mortgage loan book, the 33 branches, and the Financial Freedom unit that makes "reverse" mortgages for older Americans.

SALE PROSPECTS

"I'd like to see if we can sell the institution as a whole to one healthy bank," Bovenzi said in an interview. "Companies like Financial Freedom have a great deal of value, so there will be a market for those assets."

The FDIC did not ask Michael Perry, who had been IndyMac's chief executive, to have a role in operations following the takeover, Bovenzi added.

IndyMac is the fifth U.S. banking company to fail this year, and the largest since the 1980s savings-and-loan crisis.

It ended March with about $19 billion of deposits, of which roughly $18 billion were insured, and $32 billion of assets, regulators said.

Jitesh Patel, a doctor from Burbank, said he took a day off from work to withdraw his money from IndyMac.

"We have money we are afraid we are going to lose," he said. "I wish we were a little more savvy."

Bovenzi said he expects more banks to fail in the current credit downturn. "I don't expect there will be large bank failures," he said. "There will be small bank failures."

Gerard Cassidy, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, on Sunday said 300 U.S. banks might fail over the next three years because of credit losses and tight capital markets.

Regulators expect the IndyMac takeover to cost the FDIC $4 billion to $8 billion. The agency's insurance fund has about $52.8 billion.

Tengeri, the retired teacher, said he was originally attracted to IndyMac because of the high interest rates it offered on deposits.

Asked if the thrift's collapse would disturb his retirement, the 70-year-old said: "Very much."

(Writing by Jonathan Stempel; Editing by Maureen Bavdek)