Bulls, Bears & Bucks #15: 400 punten sneuvelt

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Op zondag 13 juli 2008 20:12 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
pberends, deze al gezien?

Straight Talk On The Economy?

Ron Paul exposes John McCain: Crooked Talk Express

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Op zondag 13 juli 2008 20:35 schreef Lyrebird het volgende:

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En je gelooft dat? Je onderschat de wil van de consument en de kracht van de markt.

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Op zondag 13 juli 2008 22:42 schreef pberends het volgende:
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A.K.A. het kankergezwel van Amerika.

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Op zondag 13 juli 2008 22:42 schreef pberends het volgende:
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A.K.A. het kankergezwel van Amerika.

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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The White House and the Federal Reserve moved Sunday to prevent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from failing. In a statement, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the global reach of Fannie and Freddie necessitated unprecedented action. The Treasury has moved to increase its existing line of credit to Fannie and Freddie. In addition, Treasury have been given the power to buy the two companies stock. In a separate vote, the Fed board of governors voted to open its discount window lending facility to Fannie and Freddie. In return, Paulson asked Congress to rework a measure in the housing bill moving through Congress to give the Fed a formal role to work with the new GSE regulator that the legislation would create.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 00:44 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

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S&P/Dow futures staan in de plus.
Olie iets terug.
Morgen zal Europa 1 - 2 pct hoger openen.

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Analysts Say More Banks Will Fail

As home prices continue to decline and loan defaults mount, federal regulators are bracing for dozens of American banks to fail over the next year.

But after a large mortgage lender in California collapsed late Friday, Wall Street analysts began posing two crucial questions: Just how many banks might falter? And, more urgently, which one could be next?

The nation’s banks are in far less danger than they were in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 federally insured institutions went under during the savings-and-loan crisis. The debacle, the greatest collapse of American financial institutions since the Depression, prompted a government bailout that cost taxpayers about $125 billion.

But the troubles are growing so rapidly at some small and midsize banks that as many as 150 out of the 7,500 banks nationwide could fail over the next 12 to 18 months, analysts say. Other lenders are likely to shut branches or seek mergers.

“Everybody is drawing up lists, trying to figure out who the next bank is, No. 1, and No. 2, how many of them are there,” said Richard X. Bove, the banking analyst with Ladenburg Thalmann, who released a list of troubled banks over the weekend. “And No. 3, from the standpoint of Washington, how badly is it going to affect the economy?”

Many investors are on edge after federal regulators seized the California lender, IndyMac Bank, one of the nation’s largest savings and loans, last week. With $32 billion in assets, IndyMac, a spinoff of the Countrywide Financial Corporation, was the biggest American lender to fail in more than two decades.

Now, as the Bush administration grapples with the crisis at the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a rush of earnings reports in the coming days and weeks from some of the nation’s largest financial companies are likely to provide more gloomy reminders about the sorry state of the industry.

The future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is vital to the banks, savings and loans and credit unions, which own $1.3 trillion of securities issued or guaranteed by the two mortgage companies. If the mortgage giants ever defaulted on those obligations, banks might be forced to raise billions of dollars in additional capital.

The large institutions set to report results this week, including Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, are in no danger of failing, but some are expected to report more multibillion-dollar write-offs.

But time may be running out for some small and midsize lenders. They vary in size and location, but their common woe is the collapsed real estate market and souring mortgage loans. Most of these banks are far smaller than the industry giants that have drawn so much scrutiny from regulators and investors.

Still, only six lenders have failed so far this year, including IndyMac. In 1994, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation listed 575 banks that it considered to be troubled. As of this spring, the agency was worried about just 90 banks. That number may go up in August, when the government releases an updated list.

“Failed banks are a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator,” said William Isaac, who was chairman of the F.D.I.C. in the early 1980s and is now the chairman of the Secura Group, a finance consulting firm in Virginia. “So you will see more troubled, more failed banks this year.”

And yet IndyMac, one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, was not on the government’s troubled bank list this spring — an indication that other troubled banks may be below the radar.

The F.D.I.C. has $53 billion set aside to reimburse consumers for deposits lost at failed banks. IndyMac will eat up $4 billion to $8 billion of that fund, the agency estimates, and that could force it to raise more money from the banks that it insures.

The agency does not disclose which banks it thinks are troubled. But analysts are circulating their own lists, and short sellers — investors who bet against stocks — are piling on. In recent weeks, the share prices of some regional banks, like the BankUnited Financial Corporation, in Florida, and the Downey Financial Corporation, in California, have stumbled hard amid concern about their financial health. A BankUnited spokeswoman said the lender had largely avoided risky subprime loans.

In his “Who Is Next?” report over the weekend, Mr. Bove listed the fraction of loans at banks that are nonperforming, meaning, for example, that the assets have been foreclosed on or that payments are 90 days past due. He came up with what he called a danger zone, which was a percentage above 5 percent. Seven banks fell in this category.

An important issue for the regional and community banks will be whether they have managed to sell their riskiest loans to Wall Street firms.

And the government may have fewer failures than in the past because private investment funds might buy some troubled lenders. Regulators are considering rule changes that would allow private equity firms to buy larger shares of banks, and several prominent investors, like Wilbur Ross, have raised funds to leap in.

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As home prices continue to decline and loan defaults mount, federal regulators are bracing for dozens of American banks to fail over the next year.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 06:58 schreef Q. het volgende:

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En iedereen maar zeggen dat Maurice Lippens gek is...

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Op zondag 13 juli 2008 23:28 schreef Lyrebird het volgende:

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800 billion / 20000 = 16 miljoen banen verdwenen? Met een unemployment rate van 4.6% en een labor force van 153.1 million kom je uit op 7 miljoen mensen zonder baan. Zonder jouw trade deficit hadden we dus een tekort van 9 miljoen legale arbeiders, want de statistieken houden geen rekenening met de meer dan 10 miljoen hispanics die illegaal in de VS aan de slag zijn.

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Op zondag 13 juli 2008 23:28 schreef Lyrebird het volgende:

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800 billion / 20000 = 16 miljoen banen verdwenen? Met een unemployment rate van 4.6% en een labor force van 153.1 million kom je uit op 7 miljoen mensen zonder baan. Zonder jouw trade deficit hadden we dus een tekort van 9 miljoen legale arbeiders, want de statistieken houden geen rekenening met de meer dan 10 miljoen hispanics die illegaal in de VS aan de slag zijn.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:43 schreef digitaLL het volgende:
De werkloosheid is helemaal niet zo laag als de US overheid beweert. Het zijn gemanipuleerde cijfers.

[ afbeelding ]

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:43 schreef pberends het volgende:
Overheid VS helpt hypotheekbanken

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Dit gaat toch echt nergens meer over. Welke Amerikaans bedrijf kan nog wel zijn eigen broek ophouden? Alleen Google en Microsoft?

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:48 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Dat ook nog eens natuurlijk. Toch zie je het handelstekort niet duidelijk terug in de cijfers ivm de enorme geldcreatie.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:43 schreef pberends het volgende:
Overheid VS helpt hypotheekbanken

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Dit gaat toch echt nergens meer over. Welke Amerikaans bedrijf kan nog wel zijn eigen broek ophouden? Alleen Google en Microsoft?

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Oil Brings Americans Closer to OPEC Debtor Dependence

By Daniel Kruger
Enlarge Image/Details

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleum exporting nations from Saudi Arabia to Russia are not only charging Americans record high prices for fuel, they are also poised to become the biggest creditor to the U.S. government.

Holdings of Treasuries by oil producers and institutions such as U.K. banks that are proxies for Middle East nations rose 44 percent this year to $510.8 billion through April, four times faster than the rest of the world, according to the Treasury Department's most recent data. At the current pace, they'll surpass Japan, which holds $592.2 billion, as the largest owner this month.

While the investment of so-called petrodollars into government debt is helping to temper a rise in borrowing costs as the U.S. finances a record budget deficit, it highlights America's dependence on foreign money. New York's Chrysler Building was bought last week by Middle East investors.

``We should be very happy that they're buying U.S. Treasuries because they're keeping interest rates low, and that's a positive for bond investors,'' said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG's Private Wealth Management unit in New York.

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China's Currency Reserves Rise 36% to $1.81 Trillion

By Nipa Piboontanasawat

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- China's foreign-exchange reserves, the world's biggest, climbed to a record $1.81 trillion at the end of June as regulators failed to stem inflows of speculative capital from abroad.

Currency holdings rose 35.7 percent from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China said today on its Web site. The assets grew $126.6 billion from the end of March, after a $153.9 billion gain, the biggest on record, in the first quarter.

Chinese regulators are adding controls this month to limit ``hot money'' inflows from investors betting the yuan will keep appreciating after 25 straight monthly gains. The trade surplus, foreign direct investment and speculative capital have flooded the world's fourth-biggest economy with cash, threatening to stoke inflation that rose to a 12-year high in February.

``A huge amount of money is coming into China and betting on the Chinese currency,'' said Dwyfor Evans, an economist at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong. ``This is creating an inflation impact and has become a big worry for policy makers.''

The yuan has climbed versus the U.S. dollar every month since May 2006. It rose today to the highest since a peg to the dollar was scrapped in 2005, trading at 6.8310 versus the dollar as of 12:17 p.m. in Shanghai.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:48 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Dat ook nog eens natuurlijk. Toch zie je het handelstekort niet duidelijk terug in de cijfers ivm de enorme geldcreatie.

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Bernanke blij met bedrijfsresultaten techbedrijven

Uitgegeven: 19 juni 2009, 10:55

Fed-voorzitter Bernanke is niet ongerust over het feit dat alleen nog verschillende techbedrijven winsten boeken. Buiten de technologische sector om maken Amerikaanse bedrijven geen van allen winst na alle afboekingen ten gevolge van de kredietcrisis en de recessie. Bernanke: "We onderzoeken de mogelijkheden voor een techbubble 2.0. Dit moet Amerika uit een recessie helpen."

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 09:37 schreef pberends het volgende:
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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 10:19 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

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Heb je dat persbericht nou zelf verzonnen?

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 08:43 schreef digitaLL het volgende:
De werkloosheid is helemaal niet zo laag als de US overheid beweert. Het zijn gemanipuleerde cijfers.

[ afbeelding ]

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 09:48 schreef Xith het volgende:
"We onderzoeken de mogelijkheden voor een techbubble 2.0. Dit moet Amerika uit een recessie helpen."

Net zoals ze woningmarkt bubbel ze uit de internet bubbel kreeg... het gaat maar door

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 11:55 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:

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hoe doen ze dat dan?

want ik heb geen idee wat de termen betekenen die in de grafiek staan.

en 14% lijkt mij wel erg hoog

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 12:00 schreef simmu het volgende:


dat doen ze bijvoorbeeld door niet mee te rekenen dat mensen minder moeten gaan werken. dus als iemand eerst 40 uur werkte voor 1 baas, en toen nog maar 10 voor dezelfde baas, dan telt dat gewoon voor een baan. als die persoon dan (dus) nog 3 baantjes voor dergelijke uren erbij neemt (wat in constructie geregeld voorkomt nu) telt die ene persoon dus voor 4 vacatures.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 11:55 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:

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hoe doen ze dat dan?

want ik heb geen idee wat de termen betekenen die in de grafiek staan.

en 14% lijkt mij wel erg hoog

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* The Birth/Death model contributed 317,000 adds.
* That's not a typo. That's 317 thousand adds.
* According to Minyanville Professor Scott Reamer, since 1999 there has been only one other month in which the add was bigger, January 2004.
* For some perspective, in the 36 month period ending March 2002 - 36 months - the total adds from the birth/death model were 353,000. Over 36 months.
* Since the beginning of the year, the birth/death model has accounted for a net 388,000 jobs.
* Last year it added 964,000 jobs.
* The kicker is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics refuses to allow academics and commercial economists access to the models they use for the birth/death additions.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 10:19 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

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Heb je dat persbericht nou zelf verzonnen?

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VS Vandaag: Wall Street opent hoger na steun Freddie, Fannie

14 juli 2008, 15:23 uur | FD.nl/DJ

AMSTERDAM (FD.nl/DJ)--Wall Street zal maandag naar verwachting hoger openen, nadat de Amerikaanse overheid de hypotheekverstrekkers Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac te hulp schoot en Anheuser-Busch een akkoord bereikte met Inbev over een overname door de Belgische brouwer.

De futures van de Amerikaanse beurzen geven een half uur voor opening aan dat de Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) en de Nasdaq een hogere opening tegemoet gaan.

De S&P 500 futures staan 15,60 punten hoger op 1.255,40. Afgezet tegen de fair value, zal de DJIA omgerekend 136,58 punten hoger openen.

De Nasdaq 100 futures staan 20,75 punten hoger op 1.841,25. Afgezet tegen de fair value zal de Nasdaq 23,40 punten hoger openen ten opzichte van het slot van gisteren.

Amerikaanse aandelenmarkten daalden vrijdag vanwege zorgen over de financiele gezondheid van Fannie Mae en Freddie Mac. De Amerikaanse overheid schoot de twee echter te hulp met een noodkredietfaciliteit. Het ministerie van Financien wil daarnaast toestemming vragen om aandelen van de beide ondernemingen te kopen en de kredietlijn uit te breiden.

Op dit nieuws steeg de dollar, terwijl de prijs voor een vat ruwe olie daalde.

Verder was Anheuser-Busch in het nieuws. De Belgisch-Braziliaanse bierbrouwer InBev heeft een akkoord bereikt met Anheuser-Busch over een overname van de Amerikaanse bierbrouwer. De aandeelhouders van Anheuser-Busch ontvangen $70 per aandeel, waarmee de totale waarde van de overname $52 mrd bedraagt.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 16:23 schreef pberends het volgende:
Zelfs die zoutloze cartoonist van Nu.nl besteedt er aandacht aan:

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HousingPANIC URGENT WARNING TO AMERICANS - GET YOUR MONEY OUT OF THE BANKS NOW


* Do NOT keep any money beyond FDIC limits in ANY bank

* Assume your bank will fail - do your own due diligence. Ask questions. Get it in writing.

* Are your mutual funds protected? Your trading accounts? Your CD's? Your money markets? Your 401k's? Know who has your money, and if it's protected

* Especially avoid banks exposed to Subprime, Alt-A and Option ARM lending

* Avoid all banks with concentrations in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona

* Get ready for the next implosion - construction loans going bad in droves

* Tell your friends and family. Last one out's a rotten egg.

* You ain't ever seen anything like this folks. Unless your were alive in 1929.

* Get popcorn. Lots and lots of popcorn.

Many more US bank failures likely after IndyMac

NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - U.S. banks may fail in far greater numbers following the collapse of the big mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp Inc, straining a financial system seeking stability after years of lending excesses.

More than 300 banks could fail in the next three years, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy, who had in February estimated no more than 150.

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Op maandag 14 juli 2008 21:20 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

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Panic is all we need.

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IndyMac depositors line up for cash after seizure

Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:17pm EDT

powered by SphereBy Gina Keating

PASADENA, California (Reuters) - Hundreds of worried IndyMac Bancorp Inc customers descended on the company's branches on Monday to withdraw their money, after regulators seized what was once one of the largest mortgage lenders in the United States.

Regulators took over the Pasadena-based lender on Friday after a bank run in which customers -- panicked over IndyMac's survival prospects -- withdrew $1.3 billion over 11 business days, regulators said.

At a branch at IndyMac's headquarters, customers began arriving at 4 a.m., five hours before the doors opened. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp now operates the thrift's 33 Southern California branches.

"I didn't think anything like this would happen," said retired teacher Charles Tengeri from Pasadena, who was first to emerge from the branch after withdrawing $171,000 -- about two-thirds of his life savings. "I withdrew as much as I could. I know it's going to take a little time."

The FDIC said the renamed IndyMac Federal Bank will cover insured deposits, mostly up to $100,000, and initially cover 50 percent of uninsured deposits.

"I have $360,000 in this bank, and I was misled by this bank," said Robert Clark, a Glendale resident. "I gave the names of my mother, my sister and my brother on the account so I thought I would be insured. I don't know what to do. I really don't know what to do."

John Bovenzi, an FDIC official working as IndyMac Federal's chief executive, talked with customers as they waited for the doors to open, assuring one that "this bank is as safe and as sound as any bank in the country right now."

The FDIC is hoping to sell IndyMac within 90 days. Among IndyMac's assets are a rapidly deteriorating mortgage loan book, the 33 branches, and the Financial Freedom unit that makes "reverse" mortgages for older Americans.

SALE PROSPECTS

"I'd like to see if we can sell the institution as a whole to one healthy bank," Bovenzi said in an interview. "Companies like Financial Freedom have a great deal of value, so there will be a market for those assets."

The FDIC did not ask Michael Perry, who had been IndyMac's chief executive, to have a role in operations following the takeover, Bovenzi added.

IndyMac is the fifth U.S. banking company to fail this year, and the largest since the 1980s savings-and-loan crisis.

It ended March with about $19 billion of deposits, of which roughly $18 billion were insured, and $32 billion of assets, regulators said.

Jitesh Patel, a doctor from Burbank, said he took a day off from work to withdraw his money from IndyMac.

"We have money we are afraid we are going to lose," he said. "I wish we were a little more savvy."

Bovenzi said he expects more banks to fail in the current credit downturn. "I don't expect there will be large bank failures," he said. "There will be small bank failures."

Gerard Cassidy, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, on Sunday said 300 U.S. banks might fail over the next three years because of credit losses and tight capital markets.

Regulators expect the IndyMac takeover to cost the FDIC $4 billion to $8 billion. The agency's insurance fund has about $52.8 billion.

Tengeri, the retired teacher, said he was originally attracted to IndyMac because of the high interest rates it offered on deposits.

Asked if the thrift's collapse would disturb his retirement, the 70-year-old said: "Very much."

(Writing by Jonathan Stempel; Editing by Maureen Bavdek)