After Trump Deal, Ukraine’s Fortunes Hinge on How Fast NATO Can Deliver ArmsPresident’s agreement to sell advanced arms to European allies so they can pass them to Kyiv is milestone in three-year-old war
WASHINGTON—President Trump’s decision to sell Patriot air-defense systems and other arms for use by Ukraine could provide a badly needed boost to Kyiv in its war with Russia. But the central questions are how long it will take to get the new weapons into Ukraine and in what quantity.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been stepping up his missile and drone bombardment of Ukraine with the calculation that it will provide Moscow with a growing edge in a costly but largely stalemated conflict.
The promised buildup in Ukraine’s defenses, announced Monday at the White House by Trump and North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary-General Mark Rutte, depends on getting enough Patriots into the country quickly, and in the long run stepping up the West’s production of interceptors for shooting down Russian drones and ballistic missiles, analysts said.
“The Russian tactic is to get the Ukrainians to waste all their existing air-defense stocks and leave them exposed to a late summer or fall offensive,” said Celeste Wallander, who was a senior Pentagon official in the Biden administration. “If this is going to change Putin’s calculation on whether he will win, substantial deliveries would have to be carried out through the summer.”
Trump’s decision is still a milestone. His agreement to sell advanced arms to European allies so they can pass them to Kyiv marks the first time the White House has agreed to furnish weapons for Ukraine that go beyond the deliveries former President Joe Biden set in motion before leaving office.
For Trump, the willingness of European governments to pay the U.S. for the weapons and funnel them through NATO is a key aspect of the new arrangement, enabling him to claim that he has achieved his goal of shifting more of the burden for aiding Kyiv onto allies.
Coupled with Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions if Putin keeps up his attacks, it sets up an important test of wills between the two leaders. That is a shift for Trump, who once cast the Russian leader as a “nice gentleman” with whom he hoped to engage on Ukraine and other foreign-policy issues.
Rutte said the new weapons for Kyiv would include not just defensive systems, such as Patriots, but also missiles and ammunition for its forces to use in attacks against Russian forces. The weapons package for Ukraine could be worth about $10 billion, two people familiar with the transfers said.
Putin has 50 days to reach a deal on Ukraine or the White House would impose tariffs of as much as 100% on Russian imports, Trump said. Though Russian trade with the U.S. is modest, the White House could choose to implement tariffs or sanctions on other countries that import Russian oil, a potentially more harmful threat to its already struggling economy.
The ability of the U.S. and allies to provide air defenses to Ukraine, particularly against the growing threat of ballistic missiles, is limited not just by the cost of the Patriot systems but also by the West’s limited production capacity.
“Glass half full: Trump is giving Putin the real deadline of 50 days with a clear consequence if he doesn’t move to a cease-fire. Glass half empty: 50 days is very far away when Ukraine is being hit by 700 drones a night,” said Kristine Berzina of the German
Marshall Fund think tank.
“If Europeans send their existing Patriots to Ukraine and use the new supplies from the U.S. to backfill, then it will matter. But if Germany and others wait for new Patriot systems before sending more to Ukraine, the help will seem far too late,” Berzina said.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a post on X Monday that he had assured Trump that Germany would “play a decisive role” and would “quickly clarify” its contribution.
Lockheed Martin made 500 PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot systems last year, with a plan to increase the output to 650 by 2027. A European consortium manufacturing comparable interceptors for the Franco-Italian SAMP-T system produces a fraction of that amount.
To speed delivery of the Patriot systems, Germany and other European countries could provide interceptors out of their current stocks on the understanding that those systems will eventually be backfilled by systems purchased from the U.S.
Trump suggested on Monday that was part of his plan, saying that Germany was going to send missiles “early on” and that “they’ll be replaced.”
Another way to meet Ukraine’s needs would be to buy Patriot systems and interceptors directly off the assembly line. But it can take years for a foreign customer to purchase Patriots.
One way to accelerate that process would be for Trump to insist that Ukraine be put at the head of the queue for receiving new deliveries. But that would mean that other U.S. allies around the world who have also ordered Patriot interceptors would need to wait.
Trump didn’t say on Monday if he was prepared to intervene in the interceptor-production schedule. Biden took such a step when he was in office to get Patriot interceptors to Ukraine faster.
The process of arming Ukraine is expected to be overseen by Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the U.S. Air Force general who serves as NATO’s top commander and the head of the U.S. European Command.
Patriots aren’t the only U.S.-made system that can be used by Ukraine to defend its skies. Air-to-air missiles can also be used by Ukraine’s F-16 jet fighters to shoot down drones and cruise missiles. Ninety AIM air-to-air missiles were among the U.S. weapons whose delivery was put on hold by the Pentagon and Trump later reversed. Thirty advanced PAC-3 interceptors were also part of that delayed shipment.
Multiple interceptors are usually needed to counter one Russian missile. On average, Russia currently strikes Ukraine with several Iskander M or Kinzhal ballistic missiles a day, in addition to cruise missiles and, on most days, hundreds of Shahed drones
Russia has succeeded in significantly increasing its ballistic-missile production since the full-scale invasion, and is also relying on KN-23 missiles, based on the Iskander design, that have been provided by North Korea, according to Western defense officials.
Ukraine’s military response hasn’t relied solely on passive air defenses, a prohibitively expensive and unsustainable strategy over the long term.
The June “Operation Spiderweb” that destroyed several Russian strategic bombers—launch platforms for the cruise missiles—was part of that response. So is the relentless Ukrainian drone campaign against facilities throughout the production chain of the Russian military industry. In recent months, Ukrainian drones have struck Russian plants making fuel, electronics, navigation systems and explosives used in Russian missiles and drones.