[ACTUEEL] Hurricane Season 2023

Welkom! Hier alweer het volgende deel in de reeks Hurricane Season! Alle informatie over het ontstaan van (nieuwe) orkanen, tyfoons en cyclonen in 2023 vind je hier. En natuurlijk volgen we ze allemaal op de voet! Voor zowel de Atlantische, Indische als Pacifische stormen kan je hier terecht!

Algemene Info
Met de term 'Hurricane Season' bedoelden we in eerste instantie de periode van 1 juni tot en met 30 november. Deze periode wordt in de Atlantische Oceaan en de Golf van Mexico gezien als het url=http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantisch_orkaanseizoen]Atlantische orkaanseizoen[/url]. Echter komen deze gewelddadige stormen overal in de wereld voor maar met name grote delen van Azië, de VS, Centraal Amerika en de Cariben worden jaarlijks zwaar getroffen. Deze allesverwoestende stormen richten voor miljarden euro's schade en eisen jaarlijks soms duizenden slachtoffers en maken tienduizenden mensen dakloos. In het westelijke deel van de wereld noemen we deze stormen 'orkanen' of 'hurricanes'. In Azië of Australië worden ze vaak 'cyclonen' of 'tyfoons' genoemd.

In de laatste jaren zijn Tropische Stormen, Orkanen en Cyclonen meer en meer in de media gekomen en het lijkt daardoor ook alsof ze meer en meer slachtoffers maken. Ook wordt gesuggereerd dat door de opwarming van de aarde deze stormen nog intensiever en dodelijker worden. Dit zou zo maar eens kunnen want als je de seizoenen van de laatste tien jaar bekijkt dan lijken er steeds meer en steeds zwaardere orkanen te ontstaan.

Door de opkomst van Social Media zoals Instagram, Facebook en Twitter kan je soms realtime stormchasers of lokale nieuwszenders volgen waardoor je voor je gevoel nog dichter bij of in een orkaan zit. Deze volgen we dan ook graag!

Bekende orkanen
Via Youtube, Discovery of History Channel kan je historische documentaires terugvinden over de zwaarste, duurste en dodelijkste orkanen uit onze geschiedenis. Enkele voorbeelden daarvan zijn Gilbert (1988), Andrew (1992), Floyd (1999), Katrina (2005), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Haiyan (2013, Patricia (2015), Meranti of Matthew (2016), Harvey & Irma (2017) Michael (2018), Dorian en Ida (2019), Delta, Eta & Iota (2020), Surigae & Rai (2021)

In 2017 trof orkaan Harvey Texas en hield orkaan Irma o.a. huis op St. Maarten en Puerto Rico. Harvey heeft voor bijna 200 miljard dollar aan schade aangericht en is daarmee de 'duurste' orkaan ooit.

In 2018 waren het vooral Florence and Michael die het westelijk deel van de wereld troffen terwijl in Azië het met name tyfoon Mangkhut was die veel slachtoffers maakte. In 2019

In 2019 was het vooral orkaan Dorian die eind augustus/begin september de media aandacht opeiste. Dorian groeide uit tot monsterorkaan van 5e categorie en vooral de Bahama's werden zwaar getroffen. De dodelijkste storm van 2019 was veruit orkaan Idai die vanuit de Indische Oceaan de oostkust van Afrika teisterde. Meer dan 1300 mensen kwamen om het leven. De meeste slachtoffers vielen in Zimbabwe en Mozambique.

In 2020 werden opnieuw alle records broken. De officiele namenlijst was al snel "op" en moest het NHC zijn toevlucht zoeken tot de namen van het Griekse alfabet. Eta was de dodelijkste orkaan begin november maar de krachtigste orkaan Iota die half november uitgroeide tot kolossale categorie 5 orkaan en als een van de sterkste orkanen ooit Midden-Amerika zou treffen. Het jaar 2020 zou in de top vijf van duurste (Atlantische) orkaanseizoenen ooit met een schadepost van meer dan 50 miljard dollar.

In 2021 viel het Atlantische Orkaanseizoen qua slachtoffers redelijk mee (slechts 160) . Qua schade neemt 2021 echter de 4e plaats in op de ranglijst van de 'duurste' orkaanseizoenen ooit met ruim 70 miljard dollar aan schade

In 2022 was Hurricane Ian de zwaarste orkaan van het Atlantische Orkaanseizoen. Met windsnelheden tot 250 kilometer per uur trof de orkaan grote delen van de Cariben en de VS. De orkaan maakte ruim 150 slachtoffers en zorgde voor meer dan 50 miljard dollar aan schade. Veruit de meeste slachtoffers vielen in Florida.

Dodelijke orkanen
Jaarlijks vallen honderden of duizenden slachtoffers in Azië, Afrika, de Cariben en Centraal- en Noord-Amerika. Men gaat er vanuit dat de dodelijkste orkaan ooit in 1970 plaatsvond. Toen trof orkaan Bhola India en naar schattingen zijn toen 300.000 tot 500.000 mensen omgekomen.

In 2008 trof cycloon Nargis onder andere Myanmar, Burma, Sri Lanka, Laos, India en Bangladesh. Volgens officiële statistieken kwamen er toen 140.000 mensen om het leven maar men vermoed dat het er veel meer waren. Mogelijk wel 500.000 tot 1.000.000.

In 2013 was orkaan Haiyan één van de krachtigste orkanen ooit. Ruim tien miljoen mensen in de Filipijnen werden er door getroffen waarvan meer dan 650000 dakloos werden. Het aantal dodelijke slachtoffers liep op tot ver boven de 5000.

Elk jaar zie je ook weer in de jaaroverzichten van WKN wel één of meerdere zware en/of dodelijke orkanen voorbij komen.

Hoewel het Atlantische seizoen pas officieel in juni begint zijn er op andere plekken in de wereld zeker meer orkanen te vinden in de komende maanden. We zullen ook deze dus zeker gaan bespreken. Bij zeer zware orkanen zullen er ook extra topics mogelijk zijn om deze afzonderlijk te bespreken. Dus schroom niet en maak vooral een extra topic voor een orkaan die jij de moeite waard vindt!

Let op: Orkanen zijn absoluut niet te vergelijken met tornado's! Die verwarring bestaat nog wel eens. Meer over tornado's en het ontstaan daarvan vind je onder andere hier: WKN / [ACTUEEL] Tornado's in de VS #26 Into the Alley & HIGH RISK-alert

Orkanen: Hoe ontstaan ze eigenlijk?
Op de site van Wikipedia kan je in het Nederlands nalezen hoe ze ontstaan en wat de belangrijkste energiebron is voor hun verwoestende kracht: het warme zeewater. Enkele interessante filmpjes over het ontstaan (en de ontwikkeling van) een orkaan zijn deze:


Andere links naar het ontstaan van orkaan:
Nasa: How do Hurricanes form?
Nederlandse SchoolTV - Wat is een orkaan?
Engelse BBC - About Hurricanes
LiveScience - Where Hurricanes form
How hurricanes like Michael form

Indeling, Kracht en Stormvloed
De stormen worden ingedeeld op 'categorie'. Vaak zijn het eerst tropische depressies die uitgroeien tot tropische stormen. Deze tropische stormen winnen verder aan kracht en krijgen dan de orkaanstatus (Hurricanes/Tyfoons) Ze worden ingedeeld op windsnelheden via de Saffir-Simpson Schaal. Vanaf categorie 3 krijgen de orkanen de stempel 'zware orkaan' oftewel (Major Hurricane). (In Azië & Australië werken ze met een andere schaal dan in het westen)

Tropische Depressie: windsnelheden van 38 tot 61 km/u
Tropische Storm: windsnelheden van 62 tot 118 km/u
Orkaan 1e categorie: windsnelheden van 119 tot 153 km/u en een stormvloed van 1 tot 1,5 meter boven normaal
Orkaan 2e categorie: windsnelheden van 154 tot 177 km/u en een stormvloed van 1,5 tot 2,5 meter boven normaal
Orkaan 3e categorie: windsnelheden van 178 tot 209 km/u en een stormvloed van 2,5 tot 3,7 meter boven normaal
Orkaan 4e categorie: windsnelheden van 210-249 km/u en een stormvloed van 3,8 tot 5,5 meter boven normaal
Orkaan 5e categorie: windsnelheden > 250 km/u en een stormvloed van meer dan 5,5 meter boven normaal



Voorbeelden van tropische stormen en (zware) orkanen


Stormvloed/Stormsurge
Door de enorme windkracht van een orkaan wordt het zeewater opgestuwd. Dit zeewater wordt als het ware vooruit geblazen, voor de storm uit. Hoe zwaarder de orkaan des te meer zeewater vooruit wordt geduwd. Deze opstuwing noemen we de stormvloed.(Engelse term die veelal gebruikt wordt is 'stormsurge'. De stormvloed wordt dan ook gemeten bovenop de reguliere golfslag. Je kan het enigszins vergelijken met een muur van water die vooruit wordt geduwd en die wereldwijd voor kustprovincies voor grote problemen kunnen zorgen.



Meer over storm surge:
Oceanservice NOAA Stormsturge en Stormtide
Geology.com What is a stormsurge
Stormsurge - how and when?
Weather or Not - what is a stormsurge?

Waait het nou echt zo hard bij zo'n orkaan? En die stormvloed, is dat nou echt zo erg?

Schade
De Saffir-Simpson schaal zoals hierboven geeft echter ook de omvang van de schade weer. En die stijgt exponentieel. Een cat.2 orkaan geeft 10x zoveel schade dan een cat.1 Een cat 3 zelfs 50x, een cat 4 zelfs 250x en een categorie 5 orkaan doet 500 x zoveel schade dan een categorie 1 orkaan.

Onderstaand schema geeft aan waar ter wereld orkanen voorkomen


Waarom hebben orkanen eigenlijk namen?
De Tropische Depressies worden overal ter wereld in de gaten gehouden en zodra de depressies uitgroeien tot orkaan of cycloon, wordt er een naam aan de storm gegeven. Sinds 1950 krijgen ze namen op alfabetische volgorde (met uitzondering van de letters Q, U, X, Y en Z). Mocht een orkaan vernietigend hebben huisgehouden zoals Floyd, Gilbert en bijv. Katrina, dan zal die naam worden vervangen. Soms komt het ook voor dat alle letters van het alfabet gebruikt zijn in één seizoen (zoals 2005), dan zal een volgende storm Alpha gaan heten, gevolgd door Beta etc etc.

De namen van de Atlantische orkanen voor de komende jaren zijn als volgt


Mochten in één jaar de namen niet toereikend zijn (zoals 2005 en 2020) dan gaan ze het Griekse Alfabet af.

Ook aan de westkust van de VS en Mexico komen orkanen voor. (De oost-Pacifische orkanen) Verder zijn er dan nog de stormen in het noordwesten, midden en zuiden van de Pacific.Vooral de stormen in het noordwesten komen vaak in het nieuws omdat ze Japan, de Filipijnen, Taiwan en China vaak teisteren, maar ook geheel Zuidoost-Azië kunnen treffen. Ook in de Indische oceaan komen ze voor, daar zijn vaak Bangladesh en Myanmar aan de beurt, maar soms ook India, Pakistan of zelfs Oman. Tevens komen orkanen voor aan de oostkust van Afrika, met name voor de kust van Madagascar.

Meer informatie over de namen van alle orkanenvind je hier

Leuk hoor allemaal, maar wanneer zijn die orkaanseizoenen dan precies?
ATLANTISCHE OCEAAN: 1 juni t/m 30 november, met pieken eind augustus en september
NOORD OOST PACIFIC:Begin mei t/m begin november, met piek in augustus/september
NOORD WEST PACIFIC: Begin juli t/m eind november, maar eigenlijk hele jaar door activiteit.
NOORD INDISCHE OCEAAN: april t/m december met pieken in mei en november
ZUID INDISCHE + WEST AUSTRALISCHE OCEAAN: oktober t/m mei met pieken in februari en april
ZUID WEST PACIFIC + OOST AUSTRALISCHE OCEAAN: oktober tot eind april met piek in februari.

Over het algemeen is Mei de rustigste maand en September de zwaarste.

Zijn ze ook wel eens buiten die maanden? Ja hoor
Lijst met stormen buiten het seizoen om. Waarvan de meesten voorkwamen in Mei.



bron

En? Zijn er al verwachtingen en/of voorspellingen voor het Atlantische seizoen in 2022?

In december kwam TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) al met een voorspelling voor 2023. Zij verwachten een 'onder gemiddeld orkaanseizoen' voor 2023. Mogelijk 3 zeer zware orkanen, 6 orkanen en 13 tropische stormen voor het Atlantische deel van de oceaan.


Een interessant Twitter Account om te volgen voor orkaanvoorspellingen is die van Phil Klotzbach
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach

In Maart en April 2023 zullen verbeterde voorspellingen naar buiten komen en dan moeten we maar zien wat daar van uit gaat komen. Die zullen we mogelijk ook in dit topic gaan bespreken.

Veelal zien we stormen ver van te voren aankomen. Echter is hun uiteindelijke kracht en richting vaak nog erg onzeker. Het Amerikaanse Hurricane Centre heeft daar onderstaande video over gemaakt

Meer informatie is er ook te vinden op de Wiki-pagina voor het Atlantisch Orkaanseizoen 2023

Laatste topic van 2022
WKN / Hurricane Season 2022

Oude delen van Fok!'s Hurricane Season vind je hier
http://forum.fok.nl/topicchain/1473

Enkele handige links en overig nuttig leesvoer

1. National Hurricane Centre
2. Carribean Storm Network
3. Hurricanezone
4. Hurricane Track
5. Website met satelietbeelden van de Caribbean en de rest van Amerika
6. Intellicast: Geavanceerde satellietfoto's en gifs van aktuele stormen
7. Tropical Weather Underground
8. Weather.org - Stormwatch
9. Wikipedia Hurricanes/Tyfonen in het algemeen
10. Alle stormen ter wereld van de laatste jaren in overzicht
11. Severe Worldweather
12. Orkanensite in de Filipijnen
13. Cyclocane.com
14. Tropical Tidbits
15. Tropische weersite omgeving Australië
16. Mooie site over Orkanen aan de VS kusten
17. Website van NASA over Hurricanes
18. Windfinder - Windrapporten wereldwijd
19. Storm2k - Amerikaans weerforum
20. Earth Nullschool - actuele windstromen gezien vanuit de ruimte
21. Actual wind shear Atlantic Ocean
22. Tropical Storm Risk worldwide

Opmerkelijke en historische orkanen
-- Hurricane Patricia 2015
-- Cyclone Bhola 1970
-- Typhoon Nina 1975
-- Hurricane Kenna 2002
-- Hurricane Pauline 1997
-- Hurricane Iniki 1992
-- Great Galveston Hurricane 1900
-- Hurricane Ike 2008
-- Great Hurricane of 1780
-- Hurricane Andrew 1992
-- Hurricane Katrina 2005
-- Typhoon Meranti 2016
-- Cyclone Nargis 2008
-- Tyfoon Haiyan 2013
-- Bangladesh Cyclone 1991
-- Hurricane Sandy 2012
-- Hurricane Matthew 2016
-- Hurricane Wilma 2005
-- Hurricane Harvey 2017
-- Hurricane Irma 2017
-- Hurricane Maria 2017
-- Hurricane Florence 2018
-- Hurricane Michael 2018
-- Tyfoon Mangkhut 2018
-- Hurricane Dorian 2019

Atlantische Orkaanseizoenen uit de oude doos
-- Hurricane Season 2022 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2021 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2020 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2019 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2018 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2017 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2016 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2015 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2014 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2013 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2012 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2011 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2010 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2009 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2008 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2007 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2006 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2005 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2004 - Wikipedia

Actuele Weerradar in Golf van Mexico




Satellietfoto voor de oostkust van de VS


[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door Frutsel op 29-08-2023 10:17:17 ]

quote:

New Zealand bracing for severe weather as Cyclone Hale approaches the country

Tropical Cyclone “Hale” formed on January 7, 2023, as the first named storm of the 2022/23 South Pacific cyclone season. The system tracked into New Zealand’s area of responsibility on January 8 and was reclassified as a tropical low by New Zealand’s MetService.

Even though Hale won’t be a tropical cyclone by the time it impacts New Zealand, it has the potential to cause heavy rain, powerful winds, and large waves
The worst weather is expected Tuesday, January 10. However, lingering impacts are still possible across the south and east parts of the North Island on Wednesday

There is still a lot of forecast uncertainty with this system, so it’s important to frequently check forecasts for your area
The system is currently located southeast of New Caledonia. It is forecast to move southeastwards before turning towards the North Island on Tuesday, January 10, and passing southwards over the central or eastern North Island on Wednesday. The system is expected to bring heavy rain, gale or severe gale winds, and hazardous coastal conditions to parts of the North Island and Marlborough from Monday through Thursday, January 20.1

According to MetService Meteorologist Peter Little, the most likely regions to be impacted by heavy rain are the Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne, and Hawke’s Bay, while much of the North Island will experience gale or severe gale winds from the southeast and/or southwest.

Severe Weather Warnings and Watches have already been issued, with more areas to be added as the system moves closer and its track and intensity become clearer.

Eastern coastlines from Northland to Wairarapa are also expected to be hit by large waves on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Easterly swells of 4 to 6 m (13 – 20 feet) are forecast to affect these coastlines, potentially leading to coastal inundation and erosion around high tide.

The largest swells are expected to hit the Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty, and Gisborne on Tuesday.

While the North Island prepares for the cyclone, the South Island is experiencing relatively settled weather due to a ridge of high pressure.

The West Coast, in particular, has been enjoying sunny and warm weather, with Hokitika recording its 4th highest maximum temperature of 28.2 °C (82 °F) on Sunday, January 8. This dry and warm weather is expected to continue throughout the week, with highs in the mid-twenties (°C) and only a slight chance of showers.

quote:

Cheneso makes landfall in Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone “Cheneso” formed around 12:00 UTC on January 18, 2023, as the fourth named storm of the 2022/23 South Indian Ocean cyclone season.

The system intensified further into a severe tropical storm, moving westward toward Madagascar.

At around 07:45 UTC (10:45 LT) on January 19, Cheneso made landfall north of the city of Antalaha in northern Madagascar with maximum sustained winds of 90 km/h (55 mph) and gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph), according to Meteo Madagascar.

Even though Cheneso weakened after making landfall, wind gusts are still expected to cause harm or destruction when it comes to homes and infrastructure located in Sava and Analanjirofo districts.

Red alerts have been issued for those areas as well as Dana Region due to heavy rainfall (100 – 200 mm/ 4 – 8 inches in 24 hours) and high winds predicted from January 19-20.

Additionally, there is an elevated risk of flooding occurring in towns and regions that are prone to such events, particularly those in the northeast, highlands, and eastern coasts.

The heavy rains could extend over Boeny and the central lands and could persist until Sunday, January 22.

Maritime users between Cap d’Ambre and Mahanoro are therefore asked not to venture out to sea until the danger has completely passed.

quote:

Op maandag 13 februari 2023 12:47 schreef aloa het volgende:
Freddy trekt richting Mauritius. Nog wel lange termijn, dus de koers kan nog wel veranderen.
Onderstaande is een plaatje van de windstoten voor 21 februari.
[ afbeelding ]

zag net een kaartje dat het daar behoorlijk kan gaan spoken qua wind de komende tijd

quote:

Tropical Cyclone “Judy” moving over Vanuatu Islands — Red Alert in effect for Torba, Sanma, and Penama

Tropical Cyclone “Judy” formed on February 26, 2023, over the South Pacific Ocean and is now moving SW over the northern Vanuatu Islands. A Red Alert is in effect for Torba, Sanma, and Penama. This is the 4th named storm of the 2023 South Pacific cyclone season.

At 12:00 UTC on February 27 (23:00 LT), the center of Tropical Cyclone “Judy” was located about 200 km (120 miles) NNR of Vanua Lava and 320 km (200 miles) N of Maewo.

The maximum winds close to the center were estimated at 95 km/h (59 mph) and the system was moving W at 11 km/h (6.8 mph).

Damaging gale force winds of 63 – 87 km/h (39 – 54 mph) are expected to affect the provinces of Torba, Penama, Sanma and Malampa tonight and tomorrow.

Judy is forecast to move SSW while strengthening and passing very close to the Banks Islands (NE Vanuatu) on the morning of February 28 and to cross the central and southern islands (Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna) on February 28 and 29.

Heavy rainfalls are expected over the northern provinces of Vanuatu with flash flooding expected in low-lying areas, and areas close to the river banks, including coastal flooding later tonight (LT).

Seas will become rough to very rough with heavy swells expected over northern and parts of the central waters of Vanuatu.

A Red Alert is in effect for Torba, Sanma, and Penama, a Yellow Alert for Malampa province, and Blue for Shefa and Tafea provinces.

People throughout the affected regions are advised to continue to listen to Radio Vanuatu and all other Radio Outlets to get the latest warning on this system.

Eerst Judy, nu Vanuatu

quote:

Heavy rains produced by Cyclone Yaku cause severe flooding and landslides in western Ecuador

Heavy rain caused by Cyclone Yaku produced severe flooding and landslides in western Ecuador, resulting in the deaths of at least 3 people. The worst affected was Chone Canton in Manabí Province. The National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (Senamhi) described Yaku as an unusual and unorganized tropical cyclone.

The Risk Management Secretariat of Ecuador (SGR) reported that three people lost their lives due to the extreme weather, with two fatalities caused by a landslide and one due to the overflow of the Mosquito River. Furthermore, approximately 2 000 people have been affected, and one house has been destroyed.

According to El Comercio, 90% of downtown Chone was flooded on March 7. In addition, damaged homes and crops were reported in nearby rural areas, forcing authorities to declare a state of emergency.

Two additional rivers, Garrapata and Chone, have broken their banks, causing further damage and danger to residents in the area.

National authorities have taken swift action to provide assistance and humanitarian aid to those affected. However, with the floods causing the evacuation of the Chone Basic Hospital, the situation remains challenging.

Despite the efforts made by the authorities, further rainfall is forecast for March 9. However, there is hope that the situation may improve by March 10, with drier conditions expected across the affected Manabí Province.

The National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (Senamhi) has reported an unusual “unorganized tropical cyclone” off the north and central coast of Peru earlier this week.

This clockwise low pressure system is also responsible for the extreme rainfall in Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as the anticipated intensification of rains in La Libertad, Lima, and Ancash in the coming days.

Senamhi specialists identified the formation of this system at the end of February and have been closely monitoring its progress and potential impacts.

Cyclone Yaku, as it is known, is associated with the warming of the sea surface temperature and the second band of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

quote:

La Nina ended - El Nino on the way
After three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn pattern, La Niña has officially ended and El Niño is on the way, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

That could mean a less active Atlantic hurricane season, a more active season in the Pacific – and another spike in global temperatures, forecasters say.

El Niño is associated with a band of warm ocean water that forms in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which has consequences for weather patterns around the globe.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said “neutral conditions” are in place now and are expected to last through early summer in the Northern Hemisphere for the first time since the initial La Niña advisory was issued in September 2020.

The prediction center also wrote its forecast now favors “El Niño forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the fall.”

The transition to El Niño during the later summer months could have major influence over the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.

“Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic is more sensitive to El Niño influences than in any other ocean basin,” NOAA said.

Generally, El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity, but has the opposite result in the Pacific, where warmer waters can produce more intense hurricanes.

The warmer the Pacific Ocean is, especially in the eastern region, tropical cyclone quantity and strength can tend to increase. The Atlantic, however, sees fewer hurricanes as a result of increased upper-level winds that prevent hurricanes from developing.

El Niño impacts California
El Niño also significantly impacts California’s weather and could mean a continuation of the current wet pattern already plaguing the state. Traditionally, El Niño brings increased rain and snow across the Golden State, especially in the cool season, leading to flooding, landslides, and coastal erosion.

“Southern California is generally much more impacted with El Nino conditions bringing higher than normal precipitation,” the National Weather Service in Sacramento, California said.

california snow green valley 022623
Snowfall tops 6.5 feet and rainfall tops 5 inches across southern California
But having a very robust La Niña winter could still have lingering effects this summer even as we transition into more of an El Niño pattern.

“Even though La Niña is coming to an end we are likely to see latent impacts for some time to come and therefore some of the … rainfall impacts of La Niña may still continue,” the World Meteorological Organization said.

“The lingering impacts of multi-year La Niña is basically due to its long duration, and continuous circulation anomaly, which are different from the single-peak La Niña event.”

That’s a cause for concern for many Californians, given the surplus of moisture across the state in the past two months.

Increased risk for global heat waves
The more widespread concern with the return to El Niño conditions for the first time since the summer of 2019 will be the warming ocean’s impact on global temperatures and heat waves.

“If we do now enter an El Niño phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

In fact, 2022 was the warmest La Niña on record, and adding the additional heat of El Niño means the next year or two will likely climb even higher on the list of hottest years on record.

Michael Williams cools off with a popsicle and a bag of ice as the temperature in Santa Rosa, Calif., pushes 112 degrees, Monday, Sept. 5, 2022. The items were donated by a group of community members in Santa Rosa. (Kent Porter/The Press Democrat via AP)
More than 300 all-time heat records were broken in the US this summer. See where it was the hottest.
“La Niña’s cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight-year period was the warmest on record,” said Taalas.

El Niño and La Niña are major drivers of Earth’s climate patterns, but not the only ones.

The North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are also have influence and are taken into account for the WMO’s global seasonal climate updates.

The change in La Niña and El Niño patterns contributes to a widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas, according to those updates.

“The El Niño and La Niña phenomenon occurs naturally,” the WMO said. “But it is taking place against a background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, and making our weather more extreme.”

AccuWeather's 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Florida will once again be at risk for land-falling tropical systems this upcoming season, which begins in two months. AccuWeather forecasters urge people to prepare now.

AccuWeather meteorologists recently put the final touches on their initial forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, and they are emphasizing that preparations should begin in earnest even though the official start date is two months away.

Mother Nature threw a bit of an atmospheric curveball in 2022 despite the presence of a moderate to strong La Niña. The Atlantic generated no named storms in August, but three hurricanes roamed the basin in November. The overall number of named storms was 14, which is average and a much lower number than what the prolific 2020 and 2021 seasons produced.

So what does 2023 have in store? According to AccuWeather's team of tropical weather forecasters, it will be less active than the majority of seasons since 1995 and may feature a similar number of storms when compared to 2022. But that doesn't mean there won't be dangers.

Current projections indicate that the 2023 season will be near the historical average with 11-15 named storms. Four to eight of those named storms are expected to reach hurricane strength, with one to three of those hurricanes achieving major hurricane status. A major hurricane is one that has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and is rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

“We are also projecting two to four direct impacts on the United States, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,” said Senior Meteorologist and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, who has been issuing forecasts for AccuWeather for over four decades.

Based on the 30-year average from 1990 to 2020, a typical hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes and four direct impacts on the U.S.

The 2023 forecast was crafted meticulously and took a number of critical environmental factors into account. A few of the factors that will influence the season include the expected transition to El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the tropical hotbeds of the Atlantic and the strength of a wind pattern over Africa known as the African easterly jet. Continue reading for a comprehensive analysis of how the season is expected to play out and why.

Goodbye La Niña, hello El Niño?
In early March, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) declared an end to the “triple-dip” La Niña that was in place through the past three hurricane seasons. The hyperactive 2020 season produced a record-setting number of named storms with 30, while it was followed by 21 more in the extremely busy 2021 season.

During a La Niña phase, vertical wind shear becomes less prevalent over the traditional breeding grounds for tropical storms and hurricanes. Wind shear can inhibit a tropical cyclone's formation, so when there is less wind shear in the atmosphere forecasters tend to predict a higher number of tropical systems to develop when issuing seasonal prognostications.

With El Niño, it’s the opposite.

An El Niño pattern causes the winds at higher levels of the atmosphere to dip southward and deep into the tropics more frequently, resulting in more episodes of vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear causes thunderstorms and convective clouds within emerging tropical disturbances to be tilted, disrupting tropical development, Kottlowski explained.

La Niña and El Niño make up two-thirds of the broader three-pronged recurring climate pattern known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The third phase is ENSO-neutral.

As of March 29, the CPC said an ENSO-neutral phase was in effect, meaning sea surface temperatures across the equatorial East Pacific were right around historical averages. Over the next four to six months, AccuWeather meteorologists expect the waters south of Hawaii and along both sides of the equator to warm to levels above the historical average. As a result, an evolving El Niño is likely to unfold by the second half of the summer. However, there remains a question about how strong El Niño will be from late August to early October, which is historically when tropical activity is at its highest.

Hurricane seasons with emerging El Niño patterns tend to be less active than normal, Kottlowski stated.

But, there can still be some windows where favorable conditions develop across parts of the basin for tropical development to take place.

There are many breeding grounds for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, including the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic coast of the U.S. During the heart of the hurricane season, the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa is another hot spot. Tropical waves, which are areas of low pressure in the atmosphere, are pushed from the deserts of northern Africa into the Atlantic, where they often quickly organize into robust tropical cyclones.

The strength of the African easterly jet usually plays a big role in the number of tropical waves that enter the Atlantic from Africa. The impending arrival of El Niño, however, is expected to result in a weaker African easterly jet, thus resulting in fewer tropical waves emerging off the African coast.

Which parts of the United States will be at the greatest risk?

A satellite image showing Hurricane Ian just after it reached Category 2 force on Monday, Sept. 26, 2022.

CIRA / RAMMB
In 2022, parts of the hurricane-fatigued Gulf Coast finally got a bit of a reprieve. Areas from southern Texas to the Florida Panhandle were peppered by numerous storms in 2020 and 2021, with Louisiana serving as the bull's-eye for many of them, including Category 4 Hurricane Laura in 2020 and Category 4 Hurricane Ida in 2021.

Instead, Florida, Puerto Rico and South Carolina endured the worst of 2022, which included strikes from menacing tempests such as hurricanes Ian and Fiona in September then Nicole, which made a rare late-season landfall on Florida’s east coast in November.

Unfortunately for those in the Sunshine State who are still recovering from those punishing hurricanes, AccuWeather forecasters say the state will once again be at a higher risk than other parts of the country.

Homes are flooded on Salinas Beach after the passing of Hurricane Fiona in Salinas, Puerto Rico, Monday, Sept. 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Alejandro Granadillo)

(AP Photo/Alejandro Granadillo)
“Based on climatology and an evolving El Niño pattern during August through October, the highest chance for direct and significant impacts will be from the Florida Panhandle around the entire state of Florida and to the Carolina coast,” Kottlowski said. “There appears to be a lower chance for direct impacts over the western Gulf of Mexico and for the Northeast U.S.”

AccuWeather forecasters were able to determine areas at most significant risk in part based on analog years, which are past years that bear similarities to current and expected weather patterns. Some recent analog years for this year's forecast include 2006 (below-average amount of Atlantic storms), 2009 (below average), 2012 (above average) and 2018 (above average).

The 2012 season was memorable for the late-season landfall of Superstorm Sandy and its devastating effects in the mid-Atlantic, while 2018 was defined by the historic deluge unleashed on the Carolinas by Hurricane Florence and the intense force of Category 5 Hurricane Michael on the Florida Panhandle.

Another key determinant in the locations where storms make landfall each year is an area of high pressure over the Atlantic known as the Bermuda Azores high. The orientation of this high-pressure area can dramatically alter a storm's track.

A weaker Bermuda high typically allows storms to recurve away from the United States. But stronger ones have the opposite effect and can guide storms closer to U.S. shores. As of March 29, Kottlowski's team says the strength of the Bermuda high will be one of the biggest storylines to monitor throughout the season.

Above-normal water temperatures will once again play a major role
Preseason tropical activity has been a common occurrence over the past decade, but in 2022, there were no named storms before the official June 1 start date for the first time since 2014.

Kottlowski believes that there is a good chance for preseason development once again this year, due in large part to warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast coast of the U.S., the locations where storms typically form in the late spring and early summer in the basin.

Waters were already warmer than average in the Gulf of Mexico as of late March and have played a big role in the active start to the severe weather year in the United States.

Water temperatures across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico as of March 27, 2023.

The unusually warm waters could once again provide the fuel necessary for a storm to intensify rapidly into a major hurricane. And as Ian proved, it only takes one storm to affect millions of lives.

“Even if this season were to turn out to be less active than normal, abundant warm water could lead to the development of a couple of very strong hurricanes, as we saw with Ian,” Kottlowski said. “Anyone living near or at the coast must have a hurricane plan in place to deal with what could be a life-threatening or very damaging hurricane. Now is the time to create or update your plan.”

Hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30, and in 2022, the season finished with an active November. However, due to the anticipated arrival of El Niño, the chances for late-season development this year during November and even December will be low.

In tegenstelling tot eerdere berichten?

quote:

Major hurricanes expected to increase in 2023, researchers

Researchers at the University of Arizona, who have successfully forecast hurricane activity since 2014, the 2023 hurricane season is expected to be very active after two relatively quiet years.

The forecast calls for a total of nine hurricanes between June and November, five of them classified as “major” hurricanes. These major hurricanes have wind speeds of up to 150 miles per hour and fall under Category 3 or higher.

While the number of hurricanes making landfall is expected to be fewer than in previous years, the number of major hurricanes is likely to be similar to the 2017 hurricane season, which saw devastating hurricanes such as Maria, Harvey, and Irma. In general, the average number of major hurricanes per year is two.

Xubin Zeng, who leads hurricane season forecasting at the University of Arizona, attributes the expected increase in hurricane activity to higher ocean temperatures and rising sea levels, both caused by global warming.

Since water vapour is fuel for hurricanes, the increase in water vapour over the oceans due to global warming is expected to cause more major hurricanes, even if the total number of hurricanes does not necessarily increase. Additionally, higher ocean surface temperatures are creating the ideal conditions for hurricanes to form.

Rising sea levels are also affecting storm surges, which can cause flooding, and a 2020 study projected that by 2100, tidal surges and storm surges will cause 68 percent of coastal flooding.

Zeng stressed the importance of emergency management agencies in providing critical services to people in affected areas during the potentially active hurricane season.

People living on the coast and in hurricane-prone areas should be aware of the increasing threats to their homes and property due to climate change and prepare accordingly, Zeng added.

El Niño, La Niña, Hurricanes explained
El Niño and La Niña are two opposing weather patterns that occur in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, characterized by differences in sea surface temperatures, precipitation, surface pressure, and atmospheric circulation.

El Niño results in above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, while La Niña is characterized by a periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures. This year, the presence of El Niño is expected to decrease hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, but warm ocean surface temperatures over the Atlantic may increase it.

The UArizona Hurricane Forecast Team will update their predictions in June after determining which ocean basin will prevail. Hurricanes are severe storms that form over warm tropical oceans, beginning as areas of low pressure that intensify thunderstorm activity as they move through the moisture-rich tropics.

Warm ocean air rises, cools, and condenses into droplets that further fuel the storm by releasing heat. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, hurricanes are storms with winds of at least 74 mph.

While atmospheric winds are useful for predicting individual hurricanes, they are not useful for predicting hurricane seasons due to their short memory. By contrast, ocean temperature remains constant over a longer period, making it a better metric for predicting hurricane seasons ahead of time.