quote:New Zealand bracing for severe weather as Cyclone Hale approaches the country
Tropical Cyclone “Hale” formed on January 7, 2023, as the first named storm of the 2022/23 South Pacific cyclone season. The system tracked into New Zealand’s area of responsibility on January 8 and was reclassified as a tropical low by New Zealand’s MetService.
Even though Hale won’t be a tropical cyclone by the time it impacts New Zealand, it has the potential to cause heavy rain, powerful winds, and large waves
The worst weather is expected Tuesday, January 10. However, lingering impacts are still possible across the south and east parts of the North Island on Wednesday
There is still a lot of forecast uncertainty with this system, so it’s important to frequently check forecasts for your area
The system is currently located southeast of New Caledonia. It is forecast to move southeastwards before turning towards the North Island on Tuesday, January 10, and passing southwards over the central or eastern North Island on Wednesday. The system is expected to bring heavy rain, gale or severe gale winds, and hazardous coastal conditions to parts of the North Island and Marlborough from Monday through Thursday, January 20.1
According to MetService Meteorologist Peter Little, the most likely regions to be impacted by heavy rain are the Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne, and Hawke’s Bay, while much of the North Island will experience gale or severe gale winds from the southeast and/or southwest.
Severe Weather Warnings and Watches have already been issued, with more areas to be added as the system moves closer and its track and intensity become clearer.
Eastern coastlines from Northland to Wairarapa are also expected to be hit by large waves on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Easterly swells of 4 to 6 m (13 – 20 feet) are forecast to affect these coastlines, potentially leading to coastal inundation and erosion around high tide.
The largest swells are expected to hit the Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty, and Gisborne on Tuesday.
While the North Island prepares for the cyclone, the South Island is experiencing relatively settled weather due to a ridge of high pressure.
The West Coast, in particular, has been enjoying sunny and warm weather, with Hokitika recording its 4th highest maximum temperature of 28.2 °C (82 °F) on Sunday, January 8. This dry and warm weather is expected to continue throughout the week, with highs in the mid-twenties (°C) and only a slight chance of showers.
quote:Cheneso makes landfall in Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone “Cheneso” formed around 12:00 UTC on January 18, 2023, as the fourth named storm of the 2022/23 South Indian Ocean cyclone season.
The system intensified further into a severe tropical storm, moving westward toward Madagascar.
At around 07:45 UTC (10:45 LT) on January 19, Cheneso made landfall north of the city of Antalaha in northern Madagascar with maximum sustained winds of 90 km/h (55 mph) and gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph), according to Meteo Madagascar.
Even though Cheneso weakened after making landfall, wind gusts are still expected to cause harm or destruction when it comes to homes and infrastructure located in Sava and Analanjirofo districts.
Red alerts have been issued for those areas as well as Dana Region due to heavy rainfall (100 – 200 mm/ 4 – 8 inches in 24 hours) and high winds predicted from January 19-20.
Additionally, there is an elevated risk of flooding occurring in towns and regions that are prone to such events, particularly those in the northeast, highlands, and eastern coasts.
The heavy rains could extend over Boeny and the central lands and could persist until Sunday, January 22.
Maritime users between Cap d’Ambre and Mahanoro are therefore asked not to venture out to sea until the danger has completely passed.
quote:Cyclone Cheneso hits Madagascar and destroys roads to capital
Several districts of Mahajanga, in the northwest of Madagascar, have flooded as well as the roads that connect them to the capital, Antananarivo.
Cyclone Cheneso continues to hit the island with more than 15,000 people affected to date.
"I left my house because it was destroyed by the strong winds of the cyclone. The house tilted, so I ran away. My house was totally destroyed," said flood victim Bonne Fehy.
"All our things got wet, but we had put them up high. I am disabled, so some young people took me, and that's how I escaped. They carried me in a tricycle," said Perline Razanamalala, another flood victim.
In addition to the floods, the National Office of Risk and Disaster Management has recorded numerous landslides and landslides.
Olga Rasoanirina, director of the Boeny region, Ministry of Population and Social Affairs said "we have housed people since Sunday when there were big storms. We have housed people in this site, which is a public elementary school in the neighborhood, we have set up shelters for the victims and we have also distributed meals."
The latest official death toll is four, 14 missing and more than 8,000 affected.
zag net een kaartje dat het daar behoorlijk kan gaan spoken qua wind de komende tijdquote:
Misschien hebben ze geluk. HWRF heeft hem nu wat noordelijker. GFS en Icon hebben hem vol op ramkoers op Mauritius.quote:
quote:Tropical Cyclone “Judy” moving over Vanuatu Islands — Red Alert in effect for Torba, Sanma, and Penama
Tropical Cyclone “Judy” formed on February 26, 2023, over the South Pacific Ocean and is now moving SW over the northern Vanuatu Islands. A Red Alert is in effect for Torba, Sanma, and Penama. This is the 4th named storm of the 2023 South Pacific cyclone season.
At 12:00 UTC on February 27 (23:00 LT), the center of Tropical Cyclone “Judy” was located about 200 km (120 miles) NNR of Vanua Lava and 320 km (200 miles) N of Maewo.
The maximum winds close to the center were estimated at 95 km/h (59 mph) and the system was moving W at 11 km/h (6.8 mph).
Damaging gale force winds of 63 – 87 km/h (39 – 54 mph) are expected to affect the provinces of Torba, Penama, Sanma and Malampa tonight and tomorrow.
Judy is forecast to move SSW while strengthening and passing very close to the Banks Islands (NE Vanuatu) on the morning of February 28 and to cross the central and southern islands (Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna) on February 28 and 29.
Heavy rainfalls are expected over the northern provinces of Vanuatu with flash flooding expected in low-lying areas, and areas close to the river banks, including coastal flooding later tonight (LT).
Seas will become rough to very rough with heavy swells expected over northern and parts of the central waters of Vanuatu.
A Red Alert is in effect for Torba, Sanma, and Penama, a Yellow Alert for Malampa province, and Blue for Shefa and Tafea provinces.
People throughout the affected regions are advised to continue to listen to Radio Vanuatu and all other Radio Outlets to get the latest warning on this system.
quote:Heavy rains produced by Cyclone Yaku cause severe flooding and landslides in western Ecuador
Heavy rain caused by Cyclone Yaku produced severe flooding and landslides in western Ecuador, resulting in the deaths of at least 3 people. The worst affected was Chone Canton in Manabí Province. The National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (Senamhi) described Yaku as an unusual and unorganized tropical cyclone.
The Risk Management Secretariat of Ecuador (SGR) reported that three people lost their lives due to the extreme weather, with two fatalities caused by a landslide and one due to the overflow of the Mosquito River. Furthermore, approximately 2 000 people have been affected, and one house has been destroyed.
According to El Comercio, 90% of downtown Chone was flooded on March 7. In addition, damaged homes and crops were reported in nearby rural areas, forcing authorities to declare a state of emergency.
Two additional rivers, Garrapata and Chone, have broken their banks, causing further damage and danger to residents in the area.
National authorities have taken swift action to provide assistance and humanitarian aid to those affected. However, with the floods causing the evacuation of the Chone Basic Hospital, the situation remains challenging.
Despite the efforts made by the authorities, further rainfall is forecast for March 9. However, there is hope that the situation may improve by March 10, with drier conditions expected across the affected Manabí Province.
The National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (Senamhi) has reported an unusual “unorganized tropical cyclone” off the north and central coast of Peru earlier this week.
This clockwise low pressure system is also responsible for the extreme rainfall in Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as the anticipated intensification of rains in La Libertad, Lima, and Ancash in the coming days.
Senamhi specialists identified the formation of this system at the end of February and have been closely monitoring its progress and potential impacts.
Cyclone Yaku, as it is known, is associated with the warming of the sea surface temperature and the second band of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
quote:La Nina ended - El Nino on the way
After three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn pattern, La Niña has officially ended and El Niño is on the way, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
That could mean a less active Atlantic hurricane season, a more active season in the Pacific – and another spike in global temperatures, forecasters say.
El Niño is associated with a band of warm ocean water that forms in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which has consequences for weather patterns around the globe.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said “neutral conditions” are in place now and are expected to last through early summer in the Northern Hemisphere for the first time since the initial La Niña advisory was issued in September 2020.
The prediction center also wrote its forecast now favors “El Niño forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the fall.”
The transition to El Niño during the later summer months could have major influence over the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
“Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic is more sensitive to El Niño influences than in any other ocean basin,” NOAA said.
Generally, El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity, but has the opposite result in the Pacific, where warmer waters can produce more intense hurricanes.
The warmer the Pacific Ocean is, especially in the eastern region, tropical cyclone quantity and strength can tend to increase. The Atlantic, however, sees fewer hurricanes as a result of increased upper-level winds that prevent hurricanes from developing.
El Niño impacts California
El Niño also significantly impacts California’s weather and could mean a continuation of the current wet pattern already plaguing the state. Traditionally, El Niño brings increased rain and snow across the Golden State, especially in the cool season, leading to flooding, landslides, and coastal erosion.
“Southern California is generally much more impacted with El Nino conditions bringing higher than normal precipitation,” the National Weather Service in Sacramento, California said.
california snow green valley 022623
Snowfall tops 6.5 feet and rainfall tops 5 inches across southern California
But having a very robust La Niña winter could still have lingering effects this summer even as we transition into more of an El Niño pattern.
“Even though La Niña is coming to an end we are likely to see latent impacts for some time to come and therefore some of the … rainfall impacts of La Niña may still continue,” the World Meteorological Organization said.
“The lingering impacts of multi-year La Niña is basically due to its long duration, and continuous circulation anomaly, which are different from the single-peak La Niña event.”
That’s a cause for concern for many Californians, given the surplus of moisture across the state in the past two months.
Increased risk for global heat waves
The more widespread concern with the return to El Niño conditions for the first time since the summer of 2019 will be the warming ocean’s impact on global temperatures and heat waves.
“If we do now enter an El Niño phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
In fact, 2022 was the warmest La Niña on record, and adding the additional heat of El Niño means the next year or two will likely climb even higher on the list of hottest years on record.
Michael Williams cools off with a popsicle and a bag of ice as the temperature in Santa Rosa, Calif., pushes 112 degrees, Monday, Sept. 5, 2022. The items were donated by a group of community members in Santa Rosa. (Kent Porter/The Press Democrat via AP)
More than 300 all-time heat records were broken in the US this summer. See where it was the hottest.
“La Niña’s cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight-year period was the warmest on record,” said Taalas.
El Niño and La Niña are major drivers of Earth’s climate patterns, but not the only ones.
The North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are also have influence and are taken into account for the WMO’s global seasonal climate updates.
The change in La Niña and El Niño patterns contributes to a widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas, according to those updates.
“The El Niño and La Niña phenomenon occurs naturally,” the WMO said. “But it is taking place against a background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, and making our weather more extreme.”
quote:A cyclone blue alert has been issued for communities in Australia’s northwest as a tropical low threatens to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone.
Western Australia’s Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) issued the alert at 9.12am Sunday, which covers an area between the Kimberley communities of Kalumburu and Mitchell Plateau.
A blue alert means while there’s no immediate danger, residents need to start preparing for dangerous weather, and keep up to date.
https://www.news.com.au/t(...)1ab75dbcc35f44d5af23quote:The Bureau of Meteorology on Sunday said the low is “likely to develop into a tropical cyclone later today as it tracks to the west southwest.
“It is expected to intensify further over the following days as it moves along a general track parallel to the Kimberley coast.
“There is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone from Tuesday. Coastal impacts for the central or eastern Pilbara or western Kimberley coast are most likely Thursday or Friday.”
quote:Major hurricanes expected to increase in 2023, researchers
Researchers at the University of Arizona, who have successfully forecast hurricane activity since 2014, the 2023 hurricane season is expected to be very active after two relatively quiet years.
The forecast calls for a total of nine hurricanes between June and November, five of them classified as “major” hurricanes. These major hurricanes have wind speeds of up to 150 miles per hour and fall under Category 3 or higher.
While the number of hurricanes making landfall is expected to be fewer than in previous years, the number of major hurricanes is likely to be similar to the 2017 hurricane season, which saw devastating hurricanes such as Maria, Harvey, and Irma. In general, the average number of major hurricanes per year is two.
Xubin Zeng, who leads hurricane season forecasting at the University of Arizona, attributes the expected increase in hurricane activity to higher ocean temperatures and rising sea levels, both caused by global warming.
Since water vapour is fuel for hurricanes, the increase in water vapour over the oceans due to global warming is expected to cause more major hurricanes, even if the total number of hurricanes does not necessarily increase. Additionally, higher ocean surface temperatures are creating the ideal conditions for hurricanes to form.
Rising sea levels are also affecting storm surges, which can cause flooding, and a 2020 study projected that by 2100, tidal surges and storm surges will cause 68 percent of coastal flooding.
Zeng stressed the importance of emergency management agencies in providing critical services to people in affected areas during the potentially active hurricane season.
People living on the coast and in hurricane-prone areas should be aware of the increasing threats to their homes and property due to climate change and prepare accordingly, Zeng added.
El Niño, La Niña, Hurricanes explained
El Niño and La Niña are two opposing weather patterns that occur in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, characterized by differences in sea surface temperatures, precipitation, surface pressure, and atmospheric circulation.
El Niño results in above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, while La Niña is characterized by a periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures. This year, the presence of El Niño is expected to decrease hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, but warm ocean surface temperatures over the Atlantic may increase it.
The UArizona Hurricane Forecast Team will update their predictions in June after determining which ocean basin will prevail. Hurricanes are severe storms that form over warm tropical oceans, beginning as areas of low pressure that intensify thunderstorm activity as they move through the moisture-rich tropics.
Warm ocean air rises, cools, and condenses into droplets that further fuel the storm by releasing heat. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, hurricanes are storms with winds of at least 74 mph.
While atmospheric winds are useful for predicting individual hurricanes, they are not useful for predicting hurricane seasons due to their short memory. By contrast, ocean temperature remains constant over a longer period, making it a better metric for predicting hurricane seasons ahead of time.