De atmosfeer staat op ontploffen #1208 Boembuien!

quote:

... W France to BENELUX, UK and NW Germany...

While the kinematic environment will be less impressive here than to the S / SE, 0-6 km bulk shear should still be more than sufficient for well-organised storms, including supercells. Storms development will be likely tied to the passage of the short-wave trough that will start over the Bay of Biscay and move quickly towards the UK. Storm activity should start in the morning hours over SW France, spreading north during the day. Storms will be capable of (very) large hail and severe wind gust.

Cyclogenesis is forecast along the frontal wave ahead of the trough with backing low-level winds across N France. This will increase the amount of SRH and 0-1 km bulk shear and elevate the tornado threat by the evening hours. Currently, the exact location of SRH bullseye is not consistent among the NWP and thus it is not possible to pick up the region with the highest tornado threat.

Towards the night, strong WAA regime will support widespread storm initiation and one or two systems will cross S UK and BENELUX. As the boundary layer stabilizes and/or systems cross the frontal boundary, they will become elevated, reducing the severe wind gust threat to some degree. Nevertheless, isolated large hail and very heavy rainfall threat will still be present.