'Griekenland verlaat eurozone' #28 Op naar de beslissing

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 21:59 schreef Kowloon het volgende:
Meest logisch lijkt mij om van G¤ of GEUR te spreken. Die tweede is wel verwarrend voor Nederlanders.

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A senior member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party said on Friday he had trouble trusting Greece's latest proposals to its euro zone creditors as the country had last week decisively rejected the austerity measures in a referendum.

The Greek government sent a package of reform proposals to its euro zone creditors on Thursday in a race to win new funds to avert bankruptcy and will seek a parliamentary vote on Friday to endorse immediate actions.

"We have to be very careful because honestly, because I have a little bit of a problem to trust it because what is the difference between Sunday and today? ... on Sunday the Greek people voted against these measurements," Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary floor leader of Merkel's Christian Democrats, told BBC Radio in English.

"We need to make sure that the debt sustainability is now served, if that is not functioning it doesn't make sense."

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The fallout: Companies making plans to flee Greece

A corporate exodus has been underway since 2012.

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In addition, the Greek government submitted a new package of reforms proposals to the Eurogroup and Parliament on Thursday night that included a provision to increase the corporate income-tax rate from 26 percent to 28 percent and to require companies to pay 100 percent of their tax bills a year in advance.

Whether those proposals will clear Greek lawmakers, especially those who are anti-austerity, is not yet clear, but even the inkling that this might be an indication of things to come has many companies seriously considering abandoning Greece.

A corporate exodus from Greece has, in fact, already been under way since 2012, when FAGE, the international dairy company and makers of the top-selling yogurt, transferred its headquarters to Luxembourg to reduce its exposure to the Greek financial market. That year, Coca-Cola Hellenic, a bottling subsidiary of Coca-Cola, settled its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and switched its main market listing to London.

The latest corporate casualty might be the Antenna Group, one of the country's biggest media networks, whose operations include broadcasting, publishing, Internet services, telecommunications and a record label. The Greek press has been abuzz with rumors that the company, founded in 1988, is going to move its financial operations to Amsterdam. When contacted for comment, the company would not confirm whether or not these rumors were true.

Meanwhile, in Nicosia, Cyprus, businessmen and real estate agents are reporting that at least a dozen shipping and financial companies are making queries about corporate space in anticipation of relocating to the capital of the island-nation.

Panos Danos, a real estate property consultant in Athens, said he has had 20 requests in the last week from companies in Greece asking for space in the capital of Cyprus, Nicosia and Limassol.

"Given the uncertainty over the future, it is reasonable that these companies are seeking to relocate," the managing director of Danos, an alliance member of BNP Paribas Real Estate, pointed out. Although he would not reveal the clients' identities, he noted that 70 percent of the queries came from shipping companies.

Michalis Pilikos, the head of the Employer and Industrialists Federation of Cyprus, also confirmed that there have been queries, although he admitted the trend is still at an early stage. He, too, would not reveal names.

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Grexit postponed: How the euro was saved by sinking Greece. Again

Europe has been in a state of economic crisis for so long that it has started to feel inevitable. It is not. The European Union went into a recession along with the rest of the world in 2008; unlike Canada and the United States, much of the continent has never come out. Two of the EU’s largest countries, Italy and Spain, have recovered so little that their economies are smaller than they were seven years ago. The same goes for Portugal.

The unemployment rate for the euro zone, the 19 countries using the common euro currency, is 11.1 per cent – higher, after all these years of supposed recovery, than the Canadian unemployment rate at the bottom of the recession. Italy’s unemployment rate was just 6.1 per cent in 2007; it has since more than doubled. Spain’s count, 22.5 per cent, is nearly triple the prerecession figure.

And leading the parade of the downtrodden, there’s Greece. Nearly 26 per cent of working-age adults are unemployed. More than half its young people are jobless. Gross domestic product has declined by a quarter since 2007. Even if Greece could return to a modest rate of growth, it wouldn’t regain its 2007 level of output and wealth until some time in the 2020s. No Canadian recession, not the stagflation of the early 1970s or the downturn of the early 1990s, even comes close.

None of this had to be. It is not some divine punishment for economic sins. The catastrophe is the product of a series of policy choices made by human beings. Different choices would have led to a different outcomes, and still could, but instead of figuring out how to get out of recession, Europe’s political class keeps turning to policies that have pushed large parts of the continent deeper into it.

Late last year, Greek voters elected a government that promised to go to war against the European establishment, and make it change course. Can you blame them? The status quo is clearly not working for Greece, or for a lot of other Europeans. It’s why, across the continent, we are seeing the rise of angry parties on the extreme right and left. The solutions they propose are often entirely off-base. But the problem they are responding to is real.

In Greece, that reality is extreme. The more the country’s government cuts spending and services, the more an economy in recession contracts further. Greece’s European partners have repeatedly demanded that Greece return to economic health by dramatically chopping public spending, and Athens has largely complied. It has not worked.

The more Athens cuts, the more its economy is shrunk by the cuts, and the more Greece’s unsustainable debt burden, now at 177 per cent of GDP, grows relative to a shrinking economy. This is not some fanciful theory. It’s just arithmetic. Absent other ways of stimulating the economy – say, a lower currency, or an export and tourist boom sparked by recovery in the rest of the euro zone – Europe’s cure for Greece always promised pain without gain.

As we went to press, Greece and the EU leadership appeared to be very close to an agreement to keep the country from defaulting on its debts, to prevent its banking system from collapsing, and to keep it from exiting the euro zone.

To get such an agreement, however, Greece’s leaders have had to capitulate. After months of negotiations, and even after convincing the Greek people to vote No in a snap referendum on Europe’s harsh demands for more austerity, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is now bending his knee and saying, Yes. In return, his government is asking for what appears to be only modest debt relief.

It is a stunning climbdown. Mr. Tsipras’s Syriza party came to power aiming to convince Europe that a change of economic course was needed not just for Greece, but for all Europeans. Europe’s governing elite shrugged. If euro zone finance ministers accept the Greek offer – not yet a certainty, but likely – the result will not be the revolution Mr. Tsipras once hoped for. For the third time in five years, Greece will be signing up for the maintenance of the status quo.

Or rather, status quo-minus. Over the past few weeks, the Greek banking system has largely shut down, and business activity has ground to a halt. Greece’s shrunken economy, which had contracted by 25 per cent as of this spring, has since contracted some more. On its long journey to economic recovery, Greece’s starting line has been moved back, again.

Absent significant debt forgiveness, Greece is going to be back at the table in a year or two. Without a major debt writeoff that makes its debt sustainable, and gives a small country a chance to return to growth, this latest deal, the third Greek rescue attempt since the recession started, will itself need to be rescued.

But in purely political terms, the European project has been saved, at least for now. It has been spared the humiliation of its common currency losing one of its members, which would have spread uncertainty about its future, and threatened crises in other countries. That is not nothing.

However, Europe, led by Germany, has achieved this by once again kicking the can down the road. For the third time in five years, Europe has punted a problem into the future, and the people of the problem country with it. Sometimes there is wisdom in this; some wounds really are healed with time, and some problems, if set aside, resolve themselves. Is Europe’s economic condition such a thing? No.

Across the continent, angry parties of the left and right are being empowered by Europe’s economic policy failures, particularly in Southern Europe. The EU consensus may look alive and well in Brussels. But out on the periphery, a lot of hard rain has already fallen, and anger is growing.

twitter:

rConflictNews twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 22:57:42 BREAKING: Greece's Parliamentary President Konstantopoulo abstains from chairing parliamentary session tonight - @L0gg0l reageer retweet

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L0gg0l twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 22:58:28 KONSTANTOPOULO CALLS PROPOSALS "ANTIDEMOCRATIC", INSULT TO THE GREEK PEOPLE reageer retweet

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GreeceBHub twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:08:56 "Passenger traffic in #Greek airports up 14.6 pct in Jan-June:...."(via amna gr) #Greece... http://t.co/WycJHGUTCO reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:10 schreef tfors het volgende:
Ik snap echt niet waarom men de Grieken er zo graag in wil houden. De Euro is sterker zonder de Grieken dan met. En het geeft extra motivatie voor de andere probleemlanden om te hervormen, want het zal snel duidelijk worden dat Griekenland zonder de Euro veel slechter af is. Dat is de enige goede reden om de Grieken binnen te houden, in mijn opinie, namelijk voor de welvaart van de Grieken zelf.

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:13 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:

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Als Griekenland eruit gaat, gaan ze aan de stoelpoten van een ander zwak land(Spanje en Italië zagen. En die economieën zijn te groot om om te laten vallen.

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:10 schreef tfors het volgende:
Ik snap echt niet waarom men de Grieken er zo graag in wil houden. De Euro is sterker zonder de Grieken dan met. En het geeft extra motivatie voor de andere probleemlanden om te hervormen, want het zal snel duidelijk worden dat Griekenland zonder de Euro veel slechter af is. Dat is de enige goede reden om de Grieken binnen te houden, in mijn opinie, namelijk voor de welvaart van de Grieken zelf.

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Finisterre67 twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:18:08 Tsipras says, tomorrow's memorandum [the new proposals] is a far cry from our pre-election pledges - a master stroke: honesty. #Greece reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:17 schreef Tomatenboer het volgende:

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Aan het hervormen ligt het niet. Griekenland heeft zich al een ongeluk hervormd, ook al is de beeldvorming anders.

Maar een Grexit zou zowel negatief als positief kunnen uitpakken voor de Grieken. Als ze weer terug gaan naar de Drachme kunnen ze in ieder geval wel weer zelf de Drachme devalueren wat gunstig(er) kan uitpakken voor de export bijvoorbeeld, en ze hoeven minder te hervormen zoals de Trojka dat oplegt en wat tot nu toe alleen maar desastreus heeft uitgepakt en binnenlandse koopkracht heeft vernietigd.

Aan de andere kant kan een Grexit de verhoudingen binnen de EU wel onder druk zetten inderdaad. Wellicht gaan op termijn Spanje, Italië en/of Groot-Britannië er dan ook wel wat voor voelen en inzien dat ze ook zonder EU kunnen, of misschien zelfs beter af zijn (als een Grexit uiteindelijk, op de (middel)lange termijn gunstig uitpakt voor Griekenland).

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:21 schreef tfors het volgende:

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Je argument draait om het dee mogelijkheid dat het misschien beter gaat zonder de Euro. Ik zeg die mogelijkheid is bijna 0. De Grieken waren al aan het prutsen voor de invoering van de Euro, zelfs tijdens de Euro omdat de andere landen een oogje dicht knepen, en ze zullen het ook verprutsen na een exit, zeker met Syriza aan de macht. Radicaal socialistische regeringen hebben 100% van de keren gefaald in de geschiedenis van de wereld in alle landen.

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ChrisLynnHedges twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:21:54 .@ProfSteveKeen: "Tsipras Has Just Destroyed #Greece" http://t.co/eO5kaBwj0V http://t.co/CIOgoBaTOg reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:23 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:

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De communisten in China doen het niet zo slecht.

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AFP twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:29:14 #BREAKING Creditors make 'positive evaluation' of Greek debt proposals, EU source says reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:23 schreef Vallon het volgende:

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Reden: I have a dream... en wat serieuzer; het gaat om de afgedwongen eenheid en de (wereld)garantie dat de EU en Euro als munt rotsvast is.
Er zijn feitelijk geen (geschreven) plannen dat een land uit de EU cq. Eurozone (munt) kan.
Griekenland is met Euro er op vooruitgegaan doordat ze net als sommige andere landen, voor hun uitgaven; lening op lening stapelden en ondertussen te weinig hervormden. Toegeven aan Griekenland geeft risico op besmetting naar andere landen.

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:38 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:43 schreef Vallon het volgende:

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Je snapt het al aardig.
Verwar m'n uitleg niet dat ik daar in geloof of dat ik behoefte heb jou te willen overtuigen.
De besmetting is gelegen in wanneer Griekenland aan extra geld etc. wordt geholpen, ander landen dan dat ook wel's zouden willen. Wanneer Griekenland wegvalt zou de EU wel's kunnen instorten omdat Spanje, Italie, Frankrijk, Duitsland dan enorme tegoeden moeten afschrijven en daardoor gaan dominoën.

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L0gg0l twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:44:35 COMMUNIST KKE, GOLDEN DAWN FILE REQUEST FOR NOMINAL VOTE ON BAILOUT PROPOSAL (via @YanniKouts ) reageer retweet

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EMSC twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:43:03 #Earthquake (#σεισμός) M3.0 strikes 149 km SE of #Kárpathos (#Greece) 28 min ago. More info: http://t.co/s9LwmusgMo reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:47 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:

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EMSC twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:43:03 #Earthquake (#σεισμός) M3.0 strikes 149 km SE of #Kárpathos (#Greece) 28 min ago. More info: http://t.co/s9LwmusgMo reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:46 schreef Igen het volgende:

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Volgens het IMF is dat dus niet waar. Of in ieder geval maar heel gedeeltelijk waar.

De Griekse economie krimpt maar een beetje door de bezuinigingen an sich. Landen zoals Letland indrukwekkend (en bijv. Portugal wat minder indrukwekkend maar toch) hebben laten zien dat je met snel orde op zaken stellen ook snel weer de weg naar boven kan vinden, zonder Griekse drama's. Het grootste deel van de enorme krimp door Griekenland komt doordat het niveau van voor de crisis een bubbel was, en doordat er juist maar halfbakken werd hervormd en bezuinigd zodat er permanent een bankencrisis, regeringscrisis of grexit als zwaard van Damocles boven de Griekse economie hangt, waardoor de groei tegenvalt en dus ook daadwerkelijk weer de kans op zo'n bankencrisis, regeringscrisis of grexit toeneemt. Al vijf jaar.

Dat het IMF zegt dat de Griekse schuld deels moet worden kwijtgescholden is ook geen ommezwaai, maar komt simpelweg door het feit dat Syriza Griekenland in zo'n chaos heeft gestort dat de economie nog kwetsbaarder is geworden zodat de schuld nu wel onbetaalbaar is geworden terwijl die dat een half jaar geleden nog niet was.

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:29 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:

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AFP twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:29:14 #BREAKING Creditors make 'positive evaluation' of Greek debt proposals, EU source says reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:47 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:

twitter:

EMSC twitterde op vrijdag 10-07-2015 om 23:43:03 #Earthquake (#σεισμός) M3.0 strikes 149 km SE of #Kárpathos (#Greece) 28 min ago. More info: http://t.co/s9LwmusgMo reageer retweet

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:53 schreef Igen het volgende:

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Tja, Griekenland eruit betekent dat de invloed van Noord-Europa in de euro nog meer toeneemt en dat de druk op Frankrijk om te hervormen om concurrerend te blijven nog groter wordt.

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:10 schreef tfors het volgende:
Ik snap echt niet waarom men de Grieken er zo graag in wil houden. De Euro is sterker zonder de Grieken dan met.

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:50 schreef Igen het volgende:

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Bron?

In de IMF-blogpost die ik iets verder naar boven citeerde:

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Germany has a problem. Now that euro-zone finance ministers have agreed to grant Greece another two years to meet its budgetary goal of achieving a structural surplus of 4.5 percent, attention has turned to ensuring that the crisis-wracked country reduces its overall debt load. And the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposal to slash publicly held Greek debt could cost Berlin up to ¤17.5 billion ($22.3 billion).

Even worse, such a loss could endanger German efforts to balance its own budget by 2014 -- and would make unwanted headlines in coming months just as Chancellor Angela Merkel enters the heart of campaign season ahead of general elections next September.

Berlin, not surprisingly, is opposed to such plans. "Without speculating, we should concentrate on other solutions," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said on Tuesday in Brussels. His French counterpart Pierre Moscovici supports the German position.

The IMF believes that the only way Greece can reduce its sovereign debt to the target level of 120 percent of gross domestic product in the next decade is by way of another partial default. This time, however, it wouldn't just be private creditors who would lose out as they did in the debt haircut carried out this spring. A second such cut of Greek debt would force international creditors, Germany included, to write down a portion of the billions they have loaned Athens. A 50 percent default would result in Germany losing ¤17.5 billion of the ¤35 billion it has loaned Athens thus far.

It is partly for that reason that euro-zone finance ministers are in favor of extending by two years the deadline for Greece to reduce its debt load to 120 percent of GDP from 2020 to 2022. The difference of two years, they hope, would give austerity measures more time to produce budget surpluses, which could contribute to a paying down of the country's debt.

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Op vrijdag 10 juli 2015 23:59 schreef Geralt het volgende:

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Denk dat dat een veel belangrijkere reden is en Griekenland blijft er wel bij, ongeacht hoeveel miljard van ons dat kost.

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Op zaterdag 11 juli 2015 00:02 schreef Tomatenboer het volgende:

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Ook een gedeeltelijke misvatting. Dat geld van ons gaat net zo goed weer terug naar grote banken in West-Europa, waaronder Nederlandse banken, en evengoed wordt er pensioen- en spaargeld mee gered. Dus in werkelijkheid zijn de kosten voor de belastingbetalen minder hoog, en daarnaast hebben de Grieken er minder profijt van als vaak wordt gedacht.