Crisis in Oekraïne #118 And so it begins

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Ukraine's Poroshenko says will urge rebel withdrawal at meeting with Putin

(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Thursday he would call on Russian President Vladimir Putin to take action for pro-Russian separatists to be withdrawn from Ukraine when the two men meet next week, his website said.

Poroshenko is scheduled to see Putin in the Belarussian capital Minsk on Aug. 26 at a meeting that will also include top leaders of the European Union and of the Russian-led Customs Union.

Though he did not mention Putin by name, Poroshenko was quoted by his website as saying that the Ukrainian side "would call for the (rebel) fighters to be withdrawn from Ukraine."

"I am sure we will succeed in this," he said.

Poroshenko's pro-Western leadership accuses Russia of orchestrating separatist rebellions in Ukraine, in which more than 2,000 people have been killed, and of arming the rebels. Moscow denies this.

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As Ukraine forces gain in east, focus of German diplomacy shifts

(Reuters) - After months of ratcheting up pressure on Vladimir Putin, concern is mounting in Berlin and other European capitals that an emboldened Ukraine's military successes in the east are reducing the chances of a face-saving way out of the crisis for the Russian leader.

As a result, the focus of German-led diplomatic efforts has shifted, according to senior officials, towards urging restraint from Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and averting a humiliating defeat for pro-Russian rebels, a development that Berlin fears could elicit a strong response from Putin.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's planned visit to Kiev on Saturday, her first since the crisis erupted at the start of the year, is above all a signal of support for Poroshenko, the billionaire confectionary magnate who was elected less than three months ago.

But the German leader is also expected to use the trip to try to persuade Poroshenko, and nationalist hardliners in Ukraine who want to press their military advantage and crush the separatist rebellion in the east, to think hard about the consequences of such a course.

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Last Friday, Putin's chief of staff Sergei Ivanov, a former KGB agent and one of the leading Kremlin hawks, met Poroshenko aide Boris Lozhkin in Sochi. And on Sunday, the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers met in Berlin at the invitation of their German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Germany's goal in that meeting was to do the groundwork for a new ceasefire, but in five hours of talks neither Russia's Sergei Lavrov nor Ukraine's Pavlo Klimkin showed much appetite for compromise, according to officials, with Klimkin later taking to Twitter to underline that Kiev would not bend: "In Berlin, Ukraine didn't cross its red lines."

Poroshenko said on Thursday he would use the meeting to urge Putin to take action to bring about the withdrawal of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

However, both men are under huge pressure from hardliners at home, European officials say, reducing their room for manoeuvre.

"If the Ukraine government consolidates its gains now, Putin loses his proxies in the country," said Techau. "Giving up influence over what is happening in Kiev would be a huge loss for Putin. It would be seen as a defeat."

The difficulty for Merkel is that Poroshenko may believe that a military solution is possible even though bodies are piling up across the east of the country and Ukrainian warplanes are being regularly shot down.

Even the Germans concede that they are unsure whether Putin, if given the window of a ceasefire to seek a political compromise, will seize the opportunity.

"We know he has to be given a way out. But are we sure he wants a way out? And can we trust him?", said one diplomat who requested anonymity.

Without guarantees from the Russian side, Poroshenko may be reluctant to call off the offensive in the east. Back in June, he called a 10-day unilateral ceasefire only to see Ukrainian servicemen killed by separatist forces.

He says now that renewing the ceasefire is possible only if the rebels lay down their weapons, and is adamant that he wants Russia to cut off military supplies to the separatists.

"(Merkel) knows this is intellectually difficult for Poroshenko and she knows there is a fear of the rebels using a ceasefire to regroup," said the diplomat. "Germany understands this is difficult for him and that is why she is coming to look him in the eye on the issue."

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Poroshenko says Ukraine strives for peace

At the meeting in Minsk, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko is willing to hold negotiations on peace, for "the whole world is tired of war".

"Ukraine strives for peace," the president said in the course of a working visit to Mykolaiv.

He said that on August 26, together with a powerful team consisting of three high EU representatives, he is going to Minsk to speak of peace.

The president said that Ukraine would urge to withdraw militants from its territory at the meeting.

"I am confident that we will manage to achieve that," Poroshenko said.

"To have a strong negotiating position on peace, we must be strong, have the unity of people, a powerful country and a strong army," he said.

"We are capable of defending our sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity. Today, we are fighting for the independence of Ukraine. We will certainly win," Poroshenko said.

As reported, on August 26, Minsk will host a meeting of the heads of the states of the Eurasian troika (Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan) with Poroshenko, which will also be attended by representatives of the European Commission. The meeting will be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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Ukraine's Poroshenko says he could dissolve parliament on Sunday

(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Thursday he might announce the dissolution of parliament as early as Sunday - a move that will set up a parliamentary election in Ukraine in late October.

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Germany could play a key role in 'Marshall Plan' for Ukraine - Klimkin

KYIV, August 21 /Ukrinform/. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin has again asked Western countries to provide more support to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. He said that Ukraine needs a broader assistance plan, a kind of "Marshall Plan," a key role in which could be played by Germany.

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Netherlands to help Ukraine rebuild Donbas infrastructure

Dutch Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans has said the Netherlands is ready to help Ukraine rebuild infrastructure in Donbas and assist in addressing the humanitarian crisis in the region, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry's press service has reported.

twitter:

RolandOliphant twitterde op donderdag 21-08-2014 om 17:11:03 Pics from separatist @NovorossiaNews purporting to show memorial column on Saur Mogila finally collapsing. http://t.co/cgPU1mxEAq reageer retweet

twitter:

MrKovalenko twitterde op donderdag 21-08-2014 om 16:02:30 Activists report: due to counter-strikes by terrorists the memorial stellar at the Savur-Mohyla hill fell down. http://t.co/pMEoDr81WN reageer retweet

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Ukrainian Interior Ministry, National Guard lose 16 servicemen in Ilovaisk battle

Donbas had lost eight men killed and twelve wounded, Azov had two killed and seven wounded or five dead and eleven wounded since the beginning of the fight for Ilovaisk, Shakhtarsk had four killed and 16 wounded, including two severely, and Dnipro had two killed and seven wounded.

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Ukrainian military in Ilovaisk receive reinforcement

"As of now, servicemen of the Ukrainian National Guard rapid response battalion Donbas and volunteer battalions involved in the special operation are receiving reinforcements from other Ukrainian regions. Heavy arms – mortar, grenade and anti-tank vehicles, air-defense systems – are on the way to the battle site. The forces and means should be sufficient," the press office said.

Meanwhile, militants claimed earlier on Thursday that they had repelled attacks on Ilovaisk and surrounded a subdivision of Ukrainian troops.

twitter:

Kateryna_Kruk twitterde op woensdag 20-08-2014 om 23:58:25 According to @UN report number of refuges from the Eastern #Ukraine has raised to 416k reageer retweet

twitter:

NatVasilyevaAP twitterde op donderdag 21-08-2014 om 11:51:20 An accurate and vivid description of why Muscovites are so worried about the imported food ban http://t.co/DYvdgyYkLm reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 21:35 schreef Schurkenstaat het volgende:
Het moment breekt straks aan dat Oekraïne onvoldoende (gemotiveerd) materieel en manschappen heeft om de slag te winnen.
Het is de vraag welke game changer daar verandering in gaat brengen. Want elke inlichtingendienst weet dat het hier op uit gaat draaien.

Speculeer er maar op los, zou ik zeggen.

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As Ukraine forces gain in east, focus of German diplomacy shifts

(Reuters) - After months of ratcheting up pressure on Vladimir Putin, concern is mounting in Berlin and other European capitals that an emboldened Ukraine's military successes in the east are reducing the chances of a face-saving way out of the crisis for the Russian leader.

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 21:39 schreef deelnemer het volgende:

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Het gaat eerder om de vraag of Poetin tegen zijn verlies kan.

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 21:45 schreef Schurkenstaat het volgende:

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Poetin kan niet verliezen, omdat hij dit (worst case scenario) al ingecalculeerd heeft. Rusland zou anders nooit aan deze missie begonnen zijn.
Zoals ik vanaf het begin al heb gezegd: Russen zijn schakers, die hebben alle zetten al uitgedacht. Poetin, als KGB/FSB-er, kent de muziek als geen ander.

Alles wat ik Poetin zie doen heeft alle schijn van genialiteit -vanuit zijn belang beschouwd. De partijen die achter de feiten aan lopen zijn die Westers gezind zijn. Dit feest is voor hen onbetaalbaar, onhaalbaar, onvoorspelbaar en volkomen op dood spoor beland.

Je komt nu in game changing scenario's terecht als Poetin uitschakelen. Er zit weinig anders op dan de herder te bestrijden, zodat de kudde uiteenvalt.

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 21:49 schreef deelnemer het volgende:

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Mensen die geloven dat je de werkelijkheid kan spelen als een schaakspel, begrijpen niet dat de werkelijkheid oneindig complexer is.

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 21:35 schreef Schurkenstaat het volgende:
Het moment breekt straks aan dat Oekraïne onvoldoende (gemotiveerd) materieel en manschappen heeft om de slag te winnen.
Het is de vraag welke game changer daar verandering in gaat brengen. Want elke inlichtingendienst weet dat het hier op uit gaat draaien.

Speculeer er maar op los, zou ik zeggen.

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 21:56 schreef Schurkenstaat het volgende:

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De complexiteit van geopolitiek, politiek, handelsbelangen, regelgevingen etc. komt toch neer op een veeldimensionaal schaakspel.
Het verschil is dat het Westen uitgegroeid is tot een blok waarin korte termijnwinst leidend is (alles uitgedrukt in winst en groei, vanuit een verslavende behoefte naar méér) en de Russen morgen en overmorgen niet relevant is en op de lange termijn inzetten.

Tussen nu en 25 jaar: Russen zingen dit feestje gemakkelijk uit, het Westen vreet zichzelf compleet op. Het (wij) gedraagt zich als een drugsverslaafde. The road to nowhere.

twitter:

Liveuamap twitterde op donderdag 21-08-2014 om 18:17:27 Ukrainian flag raised in Stanytsia Luhanskaya http://t.co/ULihSCkjsu via @GRAFIXEL http://t.co/UMD23bcQMV reageer retweet

twitter:

Liveuamap twitterde op donderdag 21-08-2014 om 14:23:03 Lenin in Mykolaiv http://t.co/oW1DzLNRFp via @Dbnmjr http://t.co/Jr6Cq3Pidq reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 22:02 schreef Igen het volgende:

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Wat wint hij dan?

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Kiev in U-turn over claim that 'Russian tanks, artillery and 1,200 fighters' had been deployed in Eastern Ukraine as evidence fails to materialise

Muddled security officials in Ukraine were last night forced to deny a huge Russian military convoy had been deployed in the eastern rebel-run city of Lugansk.

The strong rebuttal suggested an earlier claim about an invasion by Vladimir Putin's troops amounted to a crude propaganda move by the pro-Western Kiev government - or deep confusion in its own ranks.

The original allegation of a Russian column arriving in Lugansk came from Lt-Gen Igor Voronchenko, head of the Ukrainian Anti Terrorist Operation (ATO) in the city, and was backed by military analyst Dmitry Tymchuk.

'There are tanks, Grad artillery, APCs, accompanied by about 1,200 men dressed in the army uniform of Russian Federation,' the general was quoted saying in an assertion calculated to alarm the West.

Yet there was no confirmation on Wednesday from NATO or other Western sources which was widely reported inside Ukraine.

The claim was also contradicted closer to home by Kiev's National Security and Defence Council spokesman Andriy Lysenko who dismissed it as 'strange'.

http://www.dailymail.co.u(...)ent-peace-talks.html

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 22:07 schreef AlexanderDeGrote het volgende:

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De macht over het oosten van Oekraïne, de status van onbetwistbare regionale macht. Daarnaast rolt hij ook de EU en NATO een stuk terug en beschermd zijn nieuwe Euraziatische Unie project.

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 22:09 schreef meth1745 het volgende:

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twitter:

Liveuamap twitterde op donderdag 21-08-2014 om 22:05:02 The Russian defense Ministry denies that ATO forces captured Russian APC http://t.co/R8N7OnSF8e via @BBC_ua http://t.co/vvjsvbczlt reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 22:12 schreef sp3c het volgende:
ik denk trouwens eerder dat de Russen er op een gegeven moment hun handjes vanaf trekken als er niet genoeg meer te halen valt net als met het Servische broedervolk dat ze ook wel eens zouden komen helpen

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 22:10 schreef sp3c het volgende:

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ik zou hier niet keihard op rekenen

als putin de Donbass annexeert dan is de rest een week later lid van de EU met euro en alles

dan komt het westen dus netto weer een stapje dichterbij

en wij maar betalen

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 22:16 schreef meth1745 het volgende:

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Er valt niets te halen, behalve Russen: al de vluchtelingen, waarvan een groot deel niet zal terugkeren. Vormen een tegengewicht voor de immigranten van andere ethnische groepen.

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Op donderdag 21 augustus 2014 22:18 schreef Igen het volgende:
Rusland kan chaos creëren. Een situatie net als bij Abchazië en Zuid-Ossetië. Opstandige regio's waarbij het land in kwestie de onafhankelijkheid nooit zal erkennen, maar door de aanwezigheid van Russische militairen ook nooit tot de NAVO zal kunnen toetreden (omdat dat dan een instant wereldoorlog zou betekenen, wat niemand wil). Zo kan hij Oekraïne en Georgië uit de westerse machtssfeer houden, over de ruggen van de lokale bevolking.