Crisis in Oekraïne #54 referendum

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World stocks traded near a one-month low on Monday and the dollar and German bonds held firm as investors worried about the economic impact of possible western sanctions on Moscow after Crimea voted to separate from Ukraine.

US Treasury yields ticked higher from a 1-1/2 week low set last week. Friday's data showing a record drop in foreign governments' holdings of Treasuries underscored the appetite of emerging countries like Russia for cashing in their holdings to defend their currencies.

British Foreign Minister William Hague said he expects EU ministers to agree sanctions including travel bans and asset freezes against Russian and Crimean individuals following Sunday's referendum.

Investors are worried that sanctions, which are likely to hit Russia's already flagging economy, may also weigh on European companies that are exposed to Russia.

"The market to some extent expects sanctions now. It depends on what kind of sanctions and (Russia's) reaction to the sanctions to see if we can talk of a de-escalation of the crisis or not," said Piet Lammens, a KBC strategist in Brussels.

Alpari market analyst Craig Erlam said he expected "a long drawn out stand-off."

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 45 countries, was largely steady on the day, trading near a one-month low hit on Friday.

German 10-year Bund yields, the benchmark for euro zone borrowing costs, were flat at 1.55 percent, not far from Friday's eight-month lows of 1.506 percent.

US Treasury yields stood at 2.6795 percent, having fallen to 2.6450 percent on Friday.

The Fed said its holdings of US securities kept for overseas central banks fell by $106.142 billion in the week ended March 12, to stand at $3.206 trillion, bringing the total on deposit with the Fed to the lowest level since December 2012.

European stocks and the broader Euro STOXX 600 both rose around 0.7 percent. Emerging stocks added a quarter percent.

US crude oil fell 0.2 percent to $98.68 a barrel.

The dollar rose 0.1 percent against a basket of six major currencies.

China's yuan eased against the dollar after the central bank in Beijing doubled the currency's daily trading band as part of its commitment to liberalise the market.

Yet the currency moved in a relatively narrow range, reflecting market views that the People's Bank of China will seek to limit currency swings at a time when markets fret over China's cooling growth and the quality of corporate debt.

The euro was under pressure ahead of final euro zone inflation data for February at 1000 GMT. A Reuters poll forecast no revision to the annual rate of 0.8 percent reported, but there is a risk it could be revised down, keeping alive concerns about disinflation.

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'Men ziet Rusland hier door een roze bril'

Zondag, 16 maart. 7u30: mijn vader klopt op mijn deur. “Sta op. We gaan naar het referendum.”

Vandaag regent het, toch stromen de mensen onder paraplu’s naar hun stembureaus. Een buurvrouw begroet ons. Mijn vader:

Ook naar het referendum?

Eerst bij mijn mama. Ik ga haar met de auto halen en bij haar stemlokaal afzetten. Ze is 85. Ze zei: “Als je me met de auto niet afzet, ga ik er zelf op mijn knieën naartoe kruipen”. Dus eerst haar brengen, dan ga ik zelf.

Mensen op straat die elkaar helemaal niet kennen, lachen tegen elkaar en zeggen “Proficiat!” en “Gelukkig feest!”

We komen aan bij ons stemlokaal. Er staan veel mensen met kinderen en kinderwagens. Een oud vrouwtje komt leunend op een stok naar buiten, ze glimlacht.

Binnen is er ook veel volk maar alles verloopt snel en zonder moeilijkheden. Ik moet een formulier invullen.

Mag het in het Russisch? (Ik ben het al gewoon dat officiële papieren in het Oekraïens moeten worden ingevuld)

Ja, natuurlijk!

Op het nieuws wordt bekendgemaakt dat Russische steden geld hebben verzameld en naar de Krim verstuurd om ons te steunen. Er heerst een stemming van grote hereniging en broederschap.

In mijn familie - en ik hoor van vrienden niet enkel in de mijne - wordt er een feestelijke diner gehouden. Mijn nicht telefoneert uit Rusland om ons te feliciteren. Mijn mama zorgt voor een driegangenmenu. Er worden heildronken geheven op “de terugkeer naar vaderland”, op Katherine II, op Prins Potjomkin, op Soevorov en op andere historische helden. Ik weiger op Poetin “van Tauride” te klinken. “Waarom? Wat heeft hij jou persoonlijk aangedaan?” Ik probeer te vertellen over de protesten in Moskou waar mensen werden opgepakt. Dat verbleekt natuurlijk in vergelijking met het geweld in Kiev. “Je moet meer globaal denken”. Globaal denken wil ik niet, op die manier kan je veel dingen rechtvaardigen. Globaal denken kan even subjectief zijn als kleinschalig. Maar discussiëren heeft geen zin.

Ik denk dat men hier Rusland een beetje door een roze bril ziet. Ik wil zo graag overtuigd zijn dat het economisch zoveel beter wordt. Om van een betere politiek nog maar te zwijgen. Misschien ben ik het zwarte schaap in de kudde.

Niet iedereen is trouwens zo enthousiast over de terugkeer naar Rusland. Ik heb een paar kennissen uit Moskou die naar hier zijn gekomen omdat ze in Rusland hebben afgezien. Beiden overwegen om te emigreren. “Als het een verre provincie blijft, zal ik nog blijven, maar als het politieregime zich tot hier uitstrekt, zal ik mijn huis verkopen en de Israëlische nationaliteit aanvragen”.

Maar dat is de mening van een piepkleine minderheid.

Nadya Lobkova (1974) studeerde Kunstwetenschappen aan de universiteit van Gent. Ze doceert Engels en Russisch in Sevastopol. Ze houdt de komende dagen voor De Standaard een dagboek bij.

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De uiterst-rechtse leerling-tovenaars die na de val van het pro-Russische regime in Kiev meteen het Russisch als officiële taal in Oekraïne wilden schrappen, dragen een verpletterende verantwoordelijkheid. Het plan voor de kaping van de Krim lag vanzelfsprekend al langer klaar, maar het alibi werd Moskou op een presenteerblaadje aangereikt. Het is het soort stommiteiten dat de geschiedenis voor generaties vormgeeft.
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Bart Sturtewagen, hoofdredacteur

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 13:20 schreef speknek het volgende:

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Van de mensen die gestemd hebben, of totaal van de Krimbewoners?

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 13:28 schreef Zelva het volgende:

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Hoe zou je dat moeten horen dan?

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 13:50 schreef Zelva het volgende:

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Waarom zie ik dan nergens interviewtjes met Krim-Tartaren bijvoorbeeld?

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In contrast to Sevastopol there were no celebrations, balloons or music in Bakhchisarai, a town with a large Tatar population. Cars circled through the central streets beeping their horns and waving Russian flags. Many of the city's Tatar and Ukrainian population stayed at home watching television. Polling stations were half empty with only ethnic Russians turning out to vote.

"I did not vote because what I want is not an option on the ballot paper," said one Tatar woman speaking anonymously. "I want to be Ukrainian and have rights."

Bakhchisarai's Ukrainians are also anxious. "My parents are Ukrainian and I cannot betray them," said Ana, 53, adding in a hushed voice: "I am afraid to say to people that I am against the Russian occupation. About 80% will vote for Russia today and I hope that this will not hurt us who do not.

"We don't want corruption and bribery, Putin-style. It would be good to have European standards here. People don't understand that when they vote for Russia it is a step backwards not a step forwards."

In the village of Pionerskoe – where 98% of the 3,000 residents are Tatars –the polling station did not open after village leaders met this week and decided the vote should not go ahead.

"The referendum is illegal and that's why we don't want to take part," said Dzhalil Ibrahimov, a member of Mejlis, the Tatar council that represents Crimea's Muslim minority.

"The Crimean Tatar have no future with Russia. We want to live in a free democratic country, Ukraine. Our future is with Europe. If it will be war then we will fight; we will not go to the Russian side," said Ibrahimov. " This is a referendum under the guns of Russians, Cossacks and Chechens."

The polling station in the neighbouring Tatar village, Tekhteoljam, also did not open. The women there say they are scared about the security situation in coming days. "Now we are in isolation, we are worried that there will be violence or war," said Rimma Morozova, holding up a Ukrainian flag. "We don't see any value in this referendum, they have already decided for us. So why should we vote?"

Not all Tatars are opposed to Russia, and of those who are, many say they may leave or stay quiet rather than fight. But some are belligerent. "We will fight to the last drop of blood. We have only one motherland and nowhere to step back to. There is a cemetery and if we need to we will join our fathers there," said Emir Bakirov, 41. "Glory to Ukraine. Glory to God."

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Many Crimeans who disagreed with the referendum appeared to have stayed home. They included thousands of Crimean Tatars, an ethnic minority that accounts for about 12% of the peninsula's population and remains skeptical of Kremlin rule after facing deportation to Central Asia under Joseph Stalin. The community's leader has called the referendum unlawful.

Many ethnic Russians and Ukrainians who don't want Crimea to leave Ukraine have stayed silent. They cite pressure from friends and relatives as well as the tense atmosphere on the streets, where militias have been patrolling with Russian flags.

"I didn't go. I boycotted," said Denis Matsola, a 26-year-old left-wing activist from Simferopol, who says he considers himself Russian but would rather Crimea remain part of Ukraine.

Though Ukraine's economy is worse, it is still freer than Russia, said Mr. Matsola, who worries that as an activist, he will end up getting beaten up or jailed once Crimea is part of Russia. "I understand that it will be hard for me to live in a Russian reality," he says, noting that many of his activist friends have left for mainland Ukraine.

Mr. Matsola said among those he knows who also want Crimea to stay within Ukraine, he knows only one person who actually went to vote. Most have remained quiet. "People are afraid to talk," he said. "Even just within families there's this national pressure on people."

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U.S. can't ignore what's happening in Ukraine

Ukraine has always been a divided country, filled with those who embrace democracy and Western values and those who lean more toward the values of Russia.

In recent years, the conflict has escalated, especially with the resignation of the previous democratic leader, Viktor Yushchenko, and subsequent election of Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych has proved himself to be of distinctly Russian sympathies.

The tension between Yanukovych and the people of Ukraine increased until a bloody revolution began. Despite what some may say, Ukraine is no longer teetering on the brink of civil war, but instead has fallen straight into the abyss of rebellion.

Protesters brandished Molotov cocktails and clubs, while police retaliated with guns and bombs. Fear and anger swirled in the country, and the mass hysteria led to even more riots. Viktor Yanukovych was deposed, and Oleksandr Turchynov was installed as the temporary president.

Yanukovych fled to Russia, fearing for his life, but has vowed to return and retake control of the country. Russia has invaded Ukraine in order to quell the revolution.

In order to stop the war, the Crimean parliament has decided to vote on whether or not they will be annexed by Russia. All contact with Ukraine and Russia is careful, walking-on-eggshells diplomacy.

The care with which Ukraine is being treated has not prevented offers of aid, though. The U.S. has offered Ukraine an aid package of $1 billion, while the European Union has offered $11 billion, to be spaced out over the course of a few years.

However, the packages are stacked with a strict set of restrictions. Ukraine must conform to these restrictions or be cheated out of the monetary assistance. These restrictions include a more democratic government and a step back from all affiliations with Russia.

These offers would make a difference in Ukraine, but the country desperately needs more. Before the financial crisis, foreign countries greedily snapped up its highly profitable grain and steel exports, but demand dropped off sharply. Its most popular export is currently cereal.

Ukraine is highly dependent on gas imports from Russia, which power about 40 percent of the nation.

Debts to Russia and other nations stand at 40 percent of the country’s GDP, which is sustainable for some nations, but not one as small as Ukraine. About $20 billion of these debts must be paid off in the next two years, so the aid packages offered by foreign nations will make only a small dent, especially if Ukraine can’t manage the added burden of the restrictions.

If President Barack Obama had been decisive and strong in addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin about his intentions to invade Ukraine, Putin may have thought twice about what kind of country he would be engaging with this move. Instead, he laughed and moved his pawn without a care in the world.

Since the crisis has happened, we must focus on what needs to be done in Ukraine. Proposed sanctions against Russia can wait while corruption and communism are eradicated in Ukraine.

Instead of offering the country limited aid when they sort out their rebellion, we should be helping them instate the government that we wanted for them in the first place. The parliament and supporters of democracy need resources to do this, and we can offer them. Once they have created a free government, hopefully with the freewill help of the U.S., then aid packages can realistically be offered.

First, the U.S. should engage in peaceful negotiations with Ukrainians supporting Russia as well as occupying Russian troops after the conclusion of the vote on the Russian annex. We should fully explain our stance on the aid package and the ideal of democracy that we would like to help the country achieve.

If this does not work, then the presence of American troops in Ukraine may be required as a last resort.

Either way, Ukraine should be assisted by the U.S. We may not have the funds to give as much as the EU can, but we can certainly help them turn their country around. Ukrainians, as well as all other people, deserve the rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

Quincy Balius is an eighth-grader at Lady of Lourdes and is a member of the Tribune's Teen Panel.

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 14:19 schreef DeJori het volgende:
21 mensen

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The break-up of the former Yugoslavia in the nineties brought numerous referendums. A precedent hopefully not followed in Crimea was the 1992 Bosnian independence referendum. The numbers record 99.7 per cent in favour of independence, the result was recognised by the USA and EEC and within two months Bosnia-Hercegovina was a member of the UN. But we know the tragedy that followed. The referendum had been boycotted by the Bosnian-Serbs, turnout was 63.4 per cent, the missing third approximating to the size of the Bosnian-Serb population. Was this a genuine popular reaction by Bosnian-Serb citizens, or were they intimidated by their leaders? We remember the Bosnian-Serbs as the aggressors and the perpetrators of war crimes. The referendum boycott cannot have helped their case, there is no record of how many genuinely opposed independence.

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 15:46 schreef DUTCHKO het volgende:

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En dat verklaard dus meteen dat Poetin staat te schuimbekken als hij dit ziet veranderen in EU/USA en extremistische handen plus zijn grootste navy basis word EU/USA "bezit".
Vreemd dat hij dit doet? Nou niet echt....

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 16:01 schreef Ali_boo het volgende:

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''This item is not avaible in your country''

Iemand met een link die wel werkt in nl?

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 16:00 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:

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zbig twitterde op maandag 17-03-2014 om 15:20:37 China’s decision not to join Russia in vetoing the UN resolution is a major blow to Putin. reageer retweet

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 16:45 schreef Idisrom het volgende:


Quote van Michail Gorbatsjov in de Telegraaf

Met de aansluiting van de Krim bij Rusland is „een historische fout hersteld”. Dat zei de laatste president van de Sovjet-Unie, Michail Gorbatsjov, maandag tegen het Russische persbureau Interfax.

„De Krim werd deel van Oekraïne volgens de sovjet-wetten, dat wil zeggen, volgens de wetten van de Communistische Partij, zonder de bevolking te raadplegen. Het volk heeft die fout nu hersteld”, zei Gorbatsjov (83). „Dat moet je toejuichen, niet bestraffen met sancties.”

In 1954 ging de Krim over van Rusland naar Oekraïne. Volgens een hardnekkig gerucht deed premier Nikita Chroetsjov het schiereiland van de hand toen hij dronken was.

→ Ik vind Gorbatsjov het meest in de steek gelaten door het Westen in de jaren 1989-1991.

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 17:42 schreef remlof het volgende:

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Apart, want een paar weken geleden zei ie nog het tegenovergestelde: Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev calls for Ukraine unity

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Op maandag 17 maart 2014 17:49 schreef Ugjerke het volgende:

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Ach, hoe vaak heeft Interfax er wel niet naast gezeten, de afgelopen weken? Kwamen die niet ook met de verhalen over bombardementen?