Bulls, Bears & Bucks #65 : Vastgoed of straks in je ondergoed

Japanse economie 'groeit'

quote:

Op zondag 15 november 2009 23:58 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:
boeie

en bovendien een volstrekt gebrek aan kennis hoe politiek en bankwezen met elkaar vervlochten zijn, en hoe ze elkaar gebruiken

Zonder tegenreactie ook weer een beetje een overbodige opmerking..

Wall Street op hoogste niveau dit jaar

quote:

De dollar kwam verder onder druk te staan nadat gesprekken over valuta tussen de VS en China in Singapore op niets waren uitgelopen. Bernanke zei in zijn toespraak in New York dat de Fed 'attent' is op veranderingen in de koers van de dollar en dat de Fed ervoor zal zorgen dat de dollar een sterke munt blijft.

Het ene zeggen... .

quote:

en dat de Fed ervoor zal zorgen dat de dollar een sterke munt blijft.

"Als de koers omlaag gaat gaan we NOG meer printen!"

Handelsoverschot eurozone stijgt fors

quote:

Op maandag 16 november 2009 20:42 schreef Q. het volgende:

[..]

"Als de koers omlaag gaat gaan we NOG meer printen!"

Misschien gaat Bernanke duurder papier/katoen gebruiken voor de dollar... zodat de intrinsieke waarde hoger wordt.

Meredith Whitney: "I Haven't Been This Bearish In A Year"

Meredith Whitney verwacht een double dip (inclusief filmpje).

Goldman Sachs heeft spijt

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 17:13 schreef pberends het volgende:
Goldman Sachs heeft spijt

Goldman heeft extreem grote short posities ingenomen!




Paints quite a picture, doesn’t it?

This alone, explains in no uncertain terms that the Financial Crisis is anything but over. Sure the Federal Reserve may have pumped $800+ billion into the financial system, yes the Fed is buying some $1.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and of course there are the Fed’s off balance sheet arrangements, which we cannot even begin to quantify.

But ALL OF THESE efforts amount to diddily-squat in the face of TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS in potential losses in the derivatives market.

Sure, the banks may not publicly state how much of their derivatives are “at risk” but when you’re talking about $200+ TRILLION (an amount equal to four times GLOBAL GDP) it doesn’t really matter how much is “at risk.” As I said before, if even 4% of this is “at risk” and 10% of that 4% goes bad, you’re talking $800 billion in equity wiped out (that’s the entire equity of the five largest commercial banks).

I know this… as does anyone who does a little homework on the banking industry. Including… THE BANKS THEMSELVES.

Goldman Sachs recently published its 13F, a quarterly filing in which all asset managers reveal their largest holdings. In it, Goldman’s asset management group reveals their largest long positions and their largest short positions.

Now, Goldie is widely held to be the “smartest” guys on Wall Street (not my opinion) so their net shorts (the stocks or companies they’re betting AGAINST) were particularly interesting to me:





The above positions combine Goldman’s long and shorts (stock and option based positions) for the NET short positions. In simple terms, Goldman MAY be long these companies, but because the bank is ALSO shorting them (and shorting more shares than it is going long) it has NET short positions. Put another way, these are the companies or positions that Goldman is betting the most money on falling in the future.

For starters, FOUR of the top 10 are financial companies. The largest financial short is Wells Fargo, which Goldman has committed $289 million to betting against. After that it’s Mastercard ($266 million), then PNC ($202 million), and finally AIG ($152 million).

Looking at Goldman’s positions, it’s plain as day that Wall Street’s “finest” do NOT believe the financial crisis is over (why are they betting against the banks if they do?). It’s also clear that Goldman’s analysts have noted as I have that both Wells Fargo and PNC both have massive exposure to the derivatives market (the fact that Goldman ALSO has massive derivative exposure is beyond ironic).

However, where things get absolutely absurd is Goldman’s short position of AIG. Goldman, as has been widely documented, was one of the largest benefactors of AIG’s bailout (the then investment bank had MASSIVE counter party exposure to AIG’s toxic balance sheet). To see Goldman now betting AGAINST AIG after receiving $13 billion in tax payer money to insure the former didn’t go under along with the latter is outrageous (if not infuriating) to say the least.

On a final note, I wanted to point out Goldman is also shorting a Euro index (betting against that currency) as well as two gold mining companies (Barrick and Agnico Eagle Mines). This indicates that Goldie is bearish on both the euro and gold which hints that Wall Street’s finest are likely betting on a US Dollar rally (that would, after all, be the most obvious catalyst for a correction in gold and the euro).

To be blunt, it’s clear that Goldman (like me) believes the financial crisis is nowhere near over: four of its top ten largest shorts are financial companies. It’s also worth noting that Goldman is betting against gold and the euro. Given Goldman’s incredible access to and close relationship with the regulators and federal government, I see this as further proof that we may be seeing another stock crisis triggered by a Dollar rally in the near future.

Indeed, if the Dollar rallies we could very well see stocks AND commodities COLLAPSE.

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 19:38 schreef edwinh het volgende:

[..]

Goldman heeft extreem grote short posities ingenomen!

[ afbeelding ]


Paints quite a picture, doesn’t it?

This alone, explains in no uncertain terms that the Financial Crisis is anything but over. Sure the Federal Reserve may have pumped $800+ billion into the financial system, yes the Fed is buying some $1.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and of course there are the Fed’s off balance sheet arrangements, which we cannot even begin to quantify.

But ALL OF THESE efforts amount to diddily-squat in the face of TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS in potential losses in the derivatives market.

Sure, the banks may not publicly state how much of their derivatives are “at risk” but when you’re talking about $200+ TRILLION (an amount equal to four times GLOBAL GDP) it doesn’t really matter how much is “at risk.” As I said before, if even 4% of this is “at risk” and 10% of that 4% goes bad, you’re talking $800 billion in equity wiped out (that’s the entire equity of the five largest commercial banks).

I know this… as does anyone who does a little homework on the banking industry. Including… THE BANKS THEMSELVES.

Goldman Sachs recently published its 13F, a quarterly filing in which all asset managers reveal their largest holdings. In it, Goldman’s asset management group reveals their largest long positions and their largest short positions.

Now, Goldie is widely held to be the “smartest” guys on Wall Street (not my opinion) so their net shorts (the stocks or companies they’re betting AGAINST) were particularly interesting to me:


[ afbeelding ]


The above positions combine Goldman’s long and shorts (stock and option based positions) for the NET short positions. In simple terms, Goldman MAY be long these companies, but because the bank is ALSO shorting them (and shorting more shares than it is going long) it has NET short positions. Put another way, these are the companies or positions that Goldman is betting the most money on falling in the future.

For starters, FOUR of the top 10 are financial companies. The largest financial short is Wells Fargo, which Goldman has committed $289 million to betting against. After that it’s Mastercard ($266 million), then PNC ($202 million), and finally AIG ($152 million).

Looking at Goldman’s positions, it’s plain as day that Wall Street’s “finest” do NOT believe the financial crisis is over (why are they betting against the banks if they do?). It’s also clear that Goldman’s analysts have noted as I have that both Wells Fargo and PNC both have massive exposure to the derivatives market (the fact that Goldman ALSO has massive derivative exposure is beyond ironic).

However, where things get absolutely absurd is Goldman’s short position of AIG. Goldman, as has been widely documented, was one of the largest benefactors of AIG’s bailout (the then investment bank had MASSIVE counter party exposure to AIG’s toxic balance sheet). To see Goldman now betting AGAINST AIG after receiving $13 billion in tax payer money to insure the former didn’t go under along with the latter is outrageous (if not infuriating) to say the least.

On a final note, I wanted to point out Goldman is also shorting a Euro index (betting against that currency) as well as two gold mining companies (Barrick and Agnico Eagle Mines). This indicates that Goldie is bearish on both the euro and gold which hints that Wall Street’s finest are likely betting on a US Dollar rally (that would, after all, be the most obvious catalyst for a correction in gold and the euro).

To be blunt, it’s clear that Goldman (like me) believes the financial crisis is nowhere near over: four of its top ten largest shorts are financial companies. It’s also worth noting that Goldman is betting against gold and the euro. Given Goldman’s incredible access to and close relationship with the regulators and federal government, I see this as further proof that we may be seeing another stock crisis triggered by a Dollar rally in the near future.

Indeed, if the Dollar rallies we could very well see stocks AND commodities COLLAPSE.

yeah sure, als ie er nou ook nog eens een overzicht van de
"The above positions combine Goldman’s long and shorts (stock and option based positions) for the NET long positions" bij had gedaan, had er nog enige conclusie uit getrokken kunnen worden. Hypertenditieus weer dit. Als Goldman short AMEX gaat, en long VISA, omdat ze VISA een beter creditcard company vinden dan AMEX, dan had de conclusie van bovenstaand artikel alleen geluid dat Goldman short AMEX is gegaan. Alleen kijken naar de net short posities zegt dus he_le_maal niks. Dat is één oog afdekken, en dan constateren dat je geen diepte ziet.

Dinosaur, wat stond er nu in het ED? Je hoeft het alleen maar kort samen te vatten hoor!

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 19:52 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Dinosaur, wat stond er nu in het ED? Je hoeft het alleen maar kort samen te vatten hoor!

meneer heeft mail

quote:

World economy setting itself up for a bigger bust, says Marc Faber



By Ryan Huang, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 19 November 2009 0321 hrs

SINGAPORE: Marc Faber - the man commonly referred to as Dr Doom by the investment community – said that the real financial crisis has yet to come for the global economy.

Speaking at a conference in Singapore on Wednesday, he said there will be another big bust stemming from credit expansion.

Mr Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report and famed for his bearish and contrarian views, is bullish about commodities and gold.

Mr Faber said: "The crisis has not solved anything. On the contrary there is less transparency today than there was before. The government's balance sheet is expanding, and the abuses that have led to the one cause of the crisis have continued.

"I think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end. But before that happens, they will print money, and they will grow into very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond.

"The average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to war. People ask me against whom? Well, they will invent an enemy."

Despite the gloom, Dr Faber is upbeat about commodities in the long term because of competition for natural resources.

"At some stage, somewhere in future, we will have a war - that you have to be prepared for. And during war times, commodities go up strongly,” said Mr Faber.

"If you want to hedge against war, you don't want to own derivatives in UBS and AIG, but you have to own them physically, like farmland and agricultural commodities. That is something to consider for you as a personal safety and hedge. You have to own some commodities," he added.

http://www.channelnewsasi(...)view/1019119/1/.html

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 20:11 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

[..]

meneer heeft mail

Bedankt!

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 19:52 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Dinosaur, wat stond er nu in het ED? Je hoeft het alleen maar kort samen te vatten hoor!

ED? Erectile dysfunction?

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 19:38 schreef edwinh het volgende:

[..]

Goldman heeft extreem grote short posities ingenomen!

[ afbeelding ]


Paints quite a picture, doesn’t it?

This alone, explains in no uncertain terms that the Financial Crisis is anything but over. Sure the Federal Reserve may have pumped $800+ billion into the financial system, yes the Fed is buying some $1.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and of course there are the Fed’s off balance sheet arrangements, which we cannot even begin to quantify.

But ALL OF THESE efforts amount to diddily-squat in the face of TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS in potential losses in the derivatives market.

Sure, the banks may not publicly state how much of their derivatives are “at risk” but when you’re talking about $200+ TRILLION (an amount equal to four times GLOBAL GDP) it doesn’t really matter how much is “at risk.” As I said before, if even 4% of this is “at risk” and 10% of that 4% goes bad, you’re talking $800 billion in equity wiped out (that’s the entire equity of the five largest commercial banks).

I know this… as does anyone who does a little homework on the banking industry. Including… THE BANKS THEMSELVES.

Goldman Sachs recently published its 13F, a quarterly filing in which all asset managers reveal their largest holdings. In it, Goldman’s asset management group reveals their largest long positions and their largest short positions.

Now, Goldie is widely held to be the “smartest” guys on Wall Street (not my opinion) so their net shorts (the stocks or companies they’re betting AGAINST) were particularly interesting to me:


[ afbeelding ]


The above positions combine Goldman’s long and shorts (stock and option based positions) for the NET short positions. In simple terms, Goldman MAY be long these companies, but because the bank is ALSO shorting them (and shorting more shares than it is going long) it has NET short positions. Put another way, these are the companies or positions that Goldman is betting the most money on falling in the future.

For starters, FOUR of the top 10 are financial companies. The largest financial short is Wells Fargo, which Goldman has committed $289 million to betting against. After that it’s Mastercard ($266 million), then PNC ($202 million), and finally AIG ($152 million).

Looking at Goldman’s positions, it’s plain as day that Wall Street’s “finest” do NOT believe the financial crisis is over (why are they betting against the banks if they do?). It’s also clear that Goldman’s analysts have noted as I have that both Wells Fargo and PNC both have massive exposure to the derivatives market (the fact that Goldman ALSO has massive derivative exposure is beyond ironic).

However, where things get absolutely absurd is Goldman’s short position of AIG. Goldman, as has been widely documented, was one of the largest benefactors of AIG’s bailout (the then investment bank had MASSIVE counter party exposure to AIG’s toxic balance sheet). To see Goldman now betting AGAINST AIG after receiving $13 billion in tax payer money to insure the former didn’t go under along with the latter is outrageous (if not infuriating) to say the least.

On a final note, I wanted to point out Goldman is also shorting a Euro index (betting against that currency) as well as two gold mining companies (Barrick and Agnico Eagle Mines). This indicates that Goldie is bearish on both the euro and gold which hints that Wall Street’s finest are likely betting on a US Dollar rally (that would, after all, be the most obvious catalyst for a correction in gold and the euro).

To be blunt, it’s clear that Goldman (like me) believes the financial crisis is nowhere near over: four of its top ten largest shorts are financial companies. It’s also worth noting that Goldman is betting against gold and the euro. Given Goldman’s incredible access to and close relationship with the regulators and federal government, I see this as further proof that we may be seeing another stock crisis triggered by a Dollar rally in the near future.

Indeed, if the Dollar rallies we could very well see stocks AND commodities COLLAPSE.

Bron: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15105.html

Ik vraag me altijd af waar die lui van zo'n weblog hun betrouwbare info vandaan halen. Die "13F filings", zijn die openbaar? Lijkt me sterk.

Wel kan ik me voorstellen dat GS er belang bij heeft dat zoiets uitlekt, maar dan kunnen ze net ze goed meteen hun hele portefeuille online zetten.

Volgens mij handelt Goldman helemaal niet zoveel in aandelen, meer in grondstoffen en valuta.

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 22:02 schreef pberends het volgende:
Volgens mij handelt Goldman helemaal niet zoveel in aandelen, meer in grondstoffen en valuta.

Nou, toch wel meer dan ik hoor!

Maareh, wat is nou die ED?

Eindhovens Dagblad!

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 22:21 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Eindhovens Dagblad!

Oh. Ik dacht even iets spannends op het spoor te zijn.

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 22:16 schreef BoeufBourguignon het volgende:
Maareh, wat is nou die ED?

Exposure Draft, toch?

Enforcement Droid

quote:

Op donderdag 19 november 2009 01:13 schreef BoeufBourguignon het volgende:
Enforcement Droid

[ afbeelding ]

Ben Bernanke ziet er raar uit.

quote:

Op donderdag 19 november 2009 01:13 schreef BoeufBourguignon het volgende:
Enforcement Droid

[ afbeelding ]

Dit is wel een beetje het beeld dat ik heb van de FED

quote:

Op donderdag 19 november 2009 07:38 schreef Q. het volgende:
Ben Bernanke ziet er raar uit.

quote:

ABN Amro krijgt weer miljardeninjectie

De Nederlandse overheid steekt opnieuw miljarden euro’s in ABN Amro. De bank krijgt 4,4 miljard euro steun, zo maakte minister Bos (Financiën, PvdA) vanmiddag bekend. Bos stort 3 miljard contant en zet 1,4 miljard aan staatsleningen aan ABN om in aandelen.

De kapitaalinjectie van vandaag komt bovenop de 2,5 miljard euro die in juni werd gegeven. Het is de vierde keer dat de overheid geld uitgeeft aan ABN Amro. De Nederlandse overheid tilde vorig jaar Fortis Nederland en ABN Amro Nederland voor 16,8 miljard euro uit de boedel van Fortis. Daarna volgde een kapitaalversterking met 6,5 miljard euro.

Bos zei te verwachten dat dit „de laatste kapitaalinjectie” van de staat is. De door Brussel afgedwongen verkoop van ABN-dochter HBU blijkt miljardenrisico’s met zich mee te brengen. Staatsbank ABN Amro heeft toegezegd de komende 30 tot 35 jaar voor driekwart van de kredietverliezen borg te staan tot een maximum van 1,6 miljard euro. De afgesproken verkoopprijs van HBU van 700 miljoen euro kan daarnaast neerwaarts worden aangepast.

Nieuwe NV
Bos wil Fortis en ABN Amro in een nieuwe nv onderbrengen om „te starten met een schone lei”. Dit stuit echter op grote bezwaren van de Algemene Rekenkamer, die de wettelijke taak heeft om de inkomsten en uitgaven van het Rijk te controleren.

Volgens de Rekenkamer blijven de twee banken „feitelijk intact”, maar mag zij volgens de wet alleen de nieuwe holding erboven controleren. „Wij zijn van mening dat de gewijzigde omstandigheden in de financiële sector en de grote belangen van de staat daarin het noodzakelijk maken dat expliciet wordt vastgelegd dat de onderzoeksbevoegdheden van de Algemene Rekenkamer zich uitstrekken tot de dochters van ABN Amro Group NV”, schrijft president Saskia Stuiveling deze week aan minister Bos.

Beperkte controle
Daarnaast waarschuwt de Rekenkamer dat zij de toezichthouders onvoldoende kan controleren, omdat de toegang tot informatie bij De Nederlandsche Bank en de Autoriteit Financiële Markten beperkt is. Daarom verzoekt de Rekenkamer „op korte termijn” inzagerecht in individuele dossiers. Bos zegt niets toe, behalve dat hij afspraken zal gaan maken over de ontstane situatie.

De Tweede Kamer is al langer kritisch op de aanvullende steun die de banken nodig blijken te hebben. Ook is er kritiek op het geringe zicht van het parlement op de financiële situatie bij Fortis en ABN Amro, en op de openheid van de toezichthouders.

Bij het onderzoek naar de ondergang van DSB frustreert de geheimhoudingsplicht van de toezichthouders de mogelijkheid om onafhankelijk onderzoek te doen. Minister Bos heeft al gezegd dat hij gaat onderzoeken hoe die regels kunnen worden versoepeld.

3 miljard handje contantje en 1,4 miljard eigen vermogen er bij. Sinterklaas is weer in het land.

4,4 miljard, alsof het niks is. Maar geen euro voor de DSB-gezinnen.

Niet dat ik vind dat die laatsten per se overheidsgeld moeten krijgen, maar als er dan toch voor Sinterklaas gespeeld moet worden, dan wist ik het wel.

EUR 3.000.000.000,00 (200 EUR per inwoner, 1000 van mijn gezin) EXTRA is een hoop geld, gelukkig weet Bos dat dit een goede investering is voor ons Nederlanders, al moeten we hier wel allemaal 2 jaar extra voor werken (graag gedaan ABN AMRO) Ik betwijfel overigens of dit de laatste keer is. De commercieel vastgoed herwaarderingen zullen ook nog wel wat balansversterking vragen. Ze kunnen ook gewoon alle werknemers miljonair maken, eens kijken wat dat betekent voor de economie. Dat zou goed nieuws zijn voor de auto industrie.

quote:

Op donderdag 19 november 2009 17:08 schreef zoost het volgende:

Dat zou goed nieuws zijn voor de auto industrie.

Ja, want Nederland heeft zo'n enorme auto-industrie die volledig draait op interne consumptie.

quote:

Op woensdag 18 november 2009 21:48 schreef BoeufBourguignon het volgende:

[..]

Bron: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15105.html

Ik vraag me altijd af waar die lui van zo'n weblog hun betrouwbare info vandaan halen. Die "13F filings", zijn die openbaar? Lijkt me sterk.

Wel kan ik me voorstellen dat GS er belang bij heeft dat zoiets uitlekt, maar dan kunnen ze net ze goed meteen hun hele portefeuille online zetten.

Die 13F filings kun je gewoon terugvinden op de site van de SEC: http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html

Volgens mij is dit is de laatste filing van GS:
http://www.sec.gov/Archiv(...)769993-09-001011.txt