De Beursvloer #106: Heil Expiratie

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Op donderdag 20 augustus 2009 16:34 schreef Vandergeld het volgende:

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Maar waarom schrijf je alles toe aan manipulatie, kan toch ook gewoon een herstelbeweging zijn op de daling van 2007- early 2009

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Op donderdag 20 augustus 2009 18:19 schreef tony_clifton- het volgende:
Kennen jullie nog olie-trackers buiten US Oil Fund eigenlijk? Bestaan er ook zo'n die in euro noteren?
Of is dat laatste gewoon een domme vraag? Ik weet wel dat wanneer de dollar zakt de olieprijs meezakt, maar vermijd je zo niet dat je dubbel verlies hebt?

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Op donderdag 20 augustus 2009 18:39 schreef tony_clifton- het volgende:

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Haha, ik merk net de ironie .
Kopen in de veronderstelling dat het gaat dalen .

Hmm, die is in pond... Thx but no thanks
Het pond moet ondertussen toch wel gepositioneerd worden tussen de Amerikaanse en de Zimbabwaanse dollar denk ik .

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Moody's verlaagt kredietstatus waardepapieren ING
20-08-2009 18:27:00

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Kredietbeoordelaar Moody's Investor Service heeft donderdag de ratings verlaagd voor een aantal door ING Groep nv en dochterbedrijven uitgegeven waardepapieren.

De preferente aandelen van ING Groep werden verlaagd naar Ba1 van A3. De kredietbeoordelaar zette ook de achtergestelde leningen van ING Verzekeringen nv terug naar Ba1 van A3.

Verder verlaagde Moody's de ratings voor ING Capital Funding Trust III, naar B1 van A3, en de preferente aandelen van Equitable of Iowa Companies Capital Trust II naar Ba1 van Baa1.

Naast bovenstaande effecten, is ook een reeks achtergestelde perpetuele leningen van ING Groep op de lijst 'onder herziening' gezet voor mogelijke verlaging van de kredietstatus.

De kans is volgens de kredietbeoordelaar toegenomen dat de couponbetaling op de instrumenten wordt uitgesteld, omdat ING Groep hierover in discussie is met de Europese Commissie.

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When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.

July 9, 2009, 5:02PM



The so-called "green shoots" of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. On one side are the V-shapers who look back at prior recessions and conclude that the faster an economy drops, the faster it gets back on track. And because this economy fell off a cliff late last fall, they expect it to roar to life early next year. Hence the V shape.

Unfortunately, V-shapers are looking back at the wrong recessions. Focus on those that started with the bursting of a giant speculative bubble and you see slow recoveries. The reason is asset values at bottom are so low that investor confidence returns only gradually.

That's where the more sober U-shapers come in. They predict a more gradual recovery, as investors slowly tiptoe back into the market.

Personally, I don't buy into either camp. In a recession this deep, recovery doesn't depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.

Problem is, consumers won't start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don't have the money, and it's hard to see where it will come from. They can't borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water -- owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can't are hunkering down, as they must.

Eventually consumers will replace cars and appliances and other stuff that wears out, but a recovery can't be built on replacements. Don't expect businesses to invest much more without lots of consumers hankering after lots of new stuff. And don't rely on exports. The global economy is contracting.

My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.

The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.

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He served as the twenty-second United States Secretary of Labor under President Bill Clinton, from 1993 to 1997.