De Beursvloer #105: STAMPEDE op het Damrak. Stieren op hol.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 13:36 schreef RvLaak het volgende:

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Ze komen met cijfers? En hoe laat?

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 14:12 schreef pberends het volgende:

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ING is gewoon een handelsaandeel, koersdoeladviesjes van die smerige dwaze analisten hebben we wel gehad en de kwartaalcijfers hebben we nu ook wel gezien. Nu is het aandeel een speelbal van het sentiment.

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MARKET COMMENT: AEX in de min na consumentenvertrouwen VS
14-08-2009 16:19:00

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De AEX belandt vrijdagmiddag in het rood, na een tegenvallend cijfer over het Amerikaanse consumentenvertrouwen. "Dat zet de markt lager. Dat is ook niet zo gek, nadat we gisteren al te maken hadden met een onverwachte daling van de detailhandelsverkopen", zegt Koen Bender van Mercurius Vermogensbeheer. Bender wijst er daarnaast op dat de werkloosheid blijft oplopen in de VS. "Het lijkt erop dat het herstel in de VS minder hard gaat dan verwacht", zegt Bender, die spreekt van een rustige handel vrijdag op het Damrak. Omstreeks 16.20 uur noteert de AEX-index 1,10% lager op 286,84 punten. (EHI)

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 16:30 schreef dvr het volgende:
Is de AEX sinds maart zoveel meer gestegen dan de S&P500?

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 16:55 schreef dvr het volgende:

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Om mijn eigen vraag te beantwoorden: Nee, allebei zo'n 40%.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 16:58 schreef LXIV het volgende:

Toch verwacht ik nog een terugval naar beduidend lagere koersen. Dat is iedere keer na een crash nog gebeurd in de herstelfase.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 16:58 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Het is wel zo dat de koersen in tijden van stijging welhaast doof zijn voor slecht nieuws, terwijl dit in tijden van dalingen 100x uitvergroot wordt.

Toch verwacht ik nog een terugval naar beduidend lagere koersen. Dat is iedere keer na een crash nog gebeurd in de herstelfase.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 17:07 schreef Zero2Nine het volgende:
Zou het met die insidersdump (Beursvloer #105 STAMPEDE op het Damrak. Stieren op hol.) van gister te maken hebben?

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 17:17 schreef pberends het volgende:
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcY7SfdMZJE8.asf

Tice Says Stocks Overpriced, to Test `Breakthrough Lows'

De grootste Wall Street-beer is terug .

edit: filmpje doet 't op dit moment nog niet.

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U.S. Stocks Fall on Concern Rally Outpaced Recovery Prospects

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid, erasing this week’s gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as lower-than- estimated consumer confidence added to concern a five-month rally has outpaced prospects for the economy.

Boeing Co., the world’s second-largest commercial airplane manufacturer, led declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after saying it found flaws in 23 of its 787 Dreamliners. Alcoa Inc., 3M Co. and Travelers Cos. also slumped as commodity, financial and industrial shares posted the biggest declines. J.C. Penny Co. retreated after its forecast trailed estimates.

“A lot of people think the market has come up more than enough and it needs to rest,” said Charles Knott, chief investment officer at Knott Capital Management in Exton, Pennsylvania, who oversees about $550 million. “We’ve got a pretty sobering outlook and are concerned about the economy on a long-term basis. We think there’s neither the willpower nor the means to fully finance that type of V-shape recovery.”

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.4 percent to 998.12 at 10:39 a.m. in New York, heading for its first weekly drop in five. The Dow industrials lost 120.70 points, or 1.3 percent, to 9,277.49.

U.S. stocks are “dramatically overpriced” because the fallout from the financial crisis will continue to hurt consumer spending, said David Tice, Federated Investors Inc.’s chief portfolio strategist for bear markets. Tice, who predicts that the S&P 500 will eventually slump to 400, said he would add to short positions if the market goes much higher.

‘Need to Be Realistic’

“I’d love for prosperity to return, unfortunately I think you need to be realistic and it takes time to work off these excesses” from a bubble in credit markets, Tice said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Equities declined even after industrial production in the U.S. rose for the first time in nine months after mid-year retooling at automakers and as a federal “cash-for-clunkers” program fueled demand for cars. The 0.5 percent increase in output at manufacturers, mines and utilities was more than economists forecast, Federal Reserve figures showed.

A 50 percent rebound from a 12-year low on March 9 left the S&P 500 trading at 18.6 times the profits of its companies on Aug. 7, the highest valuation since 2004, according to weekly Bloomberg data. Stocks gained yesterday after investor John Paulson’s hedge fund bought stakes in banks, helping offset an unexpected slump in retail sales.

Earnings Season

Per-share earnings topped analysts’ estimates by 10 percent on average for the companies in the S&P 500 that have released results since June 17, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profits slumped about 30 percent in the period, a record eighth straight quarter of falling earnings.

Instead of a so-called New Normal of subdued growth, the U.S. may be heading for a robust recovery. The worst recession since the 1930s has created a reservoir of demand that will buoy the economy, say a growing number of economists led by James Glassman at JPMorgan Chase & Co., former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer and Stephen Stanley at RBS Securities Inc.

Boeing said it stopped work more than a month ago on two sections for the 787 Dreamliner after flaws were found on 23 airplanes. The 787 was almost two years behind its initial May 2008 first-delivery target before the latest delay. Shares of the second-biggest defense contractor fell 4.5 percent to $44.52, the biggest decline in more than a month.

J.C. Penny slid the most in almost two months, losing 5.2 percent to $31.60, after the third-largest U.S. department-store chain gave a third-quarter forecast trailing analysts’ estimates. Sales continue to decline, the company said.

Financials Slump

Financial shares, which have more than doubled since the S&P 500 hit a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, declined 2 percent as a group today. Bank of America Corp., along with the other largest U.S. lenders, may be poised to fall on concern that earnings prospects don’t justify the surge, based on price- earnings ratios. Bank of America slid 2 percent to $16.66.

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, dropped 2.8 percent to $13.33. 3M, the maker of 55,000 products, slid 1.9 percent, while Travelers, the New York-based insurer, slipped 1.2 percent to $46.91 after two days of gains.

Equity Residential declined after UBS AG cut the largest publicly traded owner of apartment complexes to “sell” from “neutral.” The shares lost 4.2 percent to $26.68.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 17:27 schreef Vandergeld het volgende:
Pberends, waarom wacht je niet met je shorts kopen, je gaat echt een heel stuk te vroeg zijn . Btw, zelf zit ik ook short, maar voor een veel kortere termijn tot 275 ongeveer

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 17:32 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Ik zou eerder 275-280 aanhouden voor korte termijn short. Maar nu nog shorts kopen is onzin. Ik zit verder niet "short", heb alleen wat langlopende putjes alvast ingekocht.

Vooral bij expiratie kunnen we weer op, waarschijnlijk weer naar de 290 of zelfs de 300. Daarna down met de clown, of we moeten eerst nog de 315-325 opzoeken, maar ik betwijfel of dat gaat gebeuren.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 17:17 schreef pberends het volgende:
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcY7SfdMZJE8.asf

Tice Says Stocks Overpriced, to Test `Breakthrough Lows'

De grootste Wall Street-beer is terug .

edit: filmpje doet 't op dit moment nog niet.

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RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets



Three-month slide could hit record lows, Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah predicts.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 8:26PM BST 12 Aug 2009

Britain's Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid "relief rally" over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears.

"We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up," he said in his latest confidential note to clients.

"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."

The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a "surge higher" in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely "less bad" will not suffice.

He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said.

Mr Janjuah, RBS's chief credit strategist, has a loyal following in the City. He was one of the very few analysts to speak out early about the dangerous excesses of the credit bubble. He then made waves in the summer of 2008 by issuing a global crash alert, giving warning that a "very nasty period is soon to be upon us" as – indeed it was. Lehman Brothers and AIG imploded weeks later.

This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250.

Mr Janjuah advises investors to seek safety in 10-year German bonds in late August or early September.

While media headlines have played up the short-term bounce of corporate earnings, Mr Janjuah said this is a statistical illusion. Profits were in reality down 20pc in the second quarter from the year before. They cannot rise much as the West slowly purges debt and adjusts to record over-capacity. "Investors are again being sucked back into the game where 'markets make opinions', where 'excess liquidity' is the driving investment rationale.

"The last two Augusts proved to be pivotal turning points: August 2007 being the proverbial 'head-fake' when everyone wanted to believe that policy-makers had seen off the credit disaster at the pass, and August 2008 being the calm before the utter collapse of Sept/Oct/Nov… 3rd time lucky anyone?"

The elephant in the room is the spiralling public debt as private losses are shifted on to the taxpayer, especially in Britain and America. "Ask yourself this: who bails out Government after they have bailed out everyone?"

Mr Janjuah said governments might put off the day of reckoning into the middle of next year if they resort to another shot of stimulus, but that would store yet further problems. "If what I fear plays out then I will have to concede that the lunatics who ran the asylum pretty much into the ground last year are back in control."

Over at Morgan Stanley, equity guru Teun Draaisma thinks we are through the worst. "We were on course for a Great Depression in February, but Armageddon was avoided. Governments did not repeat the policy errors of the 1930s."

"We have seen the lows of this crisis. This is a genuine rebound rally, and it has been short by historical standards so far," he said.

Mr Draaisma, who called the top of the bull market almost to the day in mid-2007, has crunched the worldwide data on 19 major stock market crashes over the last century. They show that the typical rebound rally (as opposed to bear trap rallies, when markets later plunge to new lows) lasts 17 months and stocks rise 71pc. The 1993 rally in the US was 170pc over 13 months. Finland's rally in 1994 was 295pc. Hong Kong rallied 159pc in 2000. This rebound is only five months old. The key indexes have risen 49pc in the US and 42pc in Europe. Mr Draaisma advises clients to stay in the stocks for now, but stick to telecom companies, utilities, and oil.

Yet he too expects a nasty correction once this rally falters. The usual trigger at this stage of the cycle is when central bankers start to make hawkish noises, typically a couple of months before the first turn of the screw (normally a rate rise, but in this case an end to "quantitative easing". "As long as policy-makers are talking about how fragile the recovery is, equities are unlikely to go down much."

This moment can be hard to judge. There has already been rumbling from some governors at the US Federal Reserve and from the European Central Bank's Jean-Claude Trichet. Markets are pricing in rates rises by early next year.

The pattern after major financial bust-ups is that the rebound rally gives way to another fall of 25pc or so, lasting a year, followed by five years of hard slog as stocks bounce up and down in a trading range, going nowhere. Mr Draaisma suggests taking a close look at the chart of Japan's Nikkei index from 1991 to 1999. Gains were zero.

We are in uncharted waters, however. Monetary and fiscal stimulus has been unprecedented. Russell Napier at Hong Kong brokers CLSA says a powerful bull market is already taking shape as the American giant reawakens. Perma-bears will be left behind. He said: "It is dangerous to be in cash."

When the finest minds in the business disagree so starkly, the rest of us can only shake our heads in confusion.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 17:33 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Ik hoop wel dat we nog even gaan wachten met crashen want eind van deze maand ga ik naar de rimboe in Indonesie en ben pas in november weer thuis om eventueel in te stappen.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 19:28 schreef LXIV het volgende:

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Theoretisch zouden we bij een expiratie down moeten gaan, terug naar de koersniveau's van een tijdje terug. Omdat profs meer schrijven en particulieren meer kopen. De profs hebben dus eerder belang bij een lage koers gedurende de expiratie.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 19:32 schreef LXIV het volgende:

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Wat is je instapniveau?

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 19:38 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Zelfs als we nieuwe lows maken dit najaar denk ik niet dat het de low wordt. Dat zal pas in 2010-2012 gebeuren .

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 19:48 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Ik denk ook dat het langer gaat duren dan ik eerst hoopte, vanwege de verobamisering van de economie. Maar je weet het nooit. Ik gok nog steeds dat de genadeklap komt als de reele rente gaat stijgen in combinatie met een economie die niet aantrekt. De FED staat dan schaakmat en bailouts/ stimulering zoals het afgelopen jaar kunnen dan niet meer.

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 17:39 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Filmpje doet het .

Fair value is 400 on the S&P .

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 19:54 schreef edwinh het volgende:
Gisteravond terug in de auto zat ik eens na te denken, een kennis van mij heeft een huis gekocht, kon eigenlijk niet ( 1 vast contract in de gehandicapten zorg, werkelijk het slechtste Cao in in NL, anyway) voor rond de 170k KK, een bult om op te knappen dus 190000 geleend. Nou heeft hij het met variabele rente bij ING voor geloof ik 1.2 % ofzo, nou dacht ik hoelang en hoeveel zullen er sneuvelen als de infaltie en de rente weer torenhoog oploopt binnen enkele jaren........

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Op vrijdag 14 augustus 2009 19:57 schreef MrUnchained het volgende:

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Als ik short zou zitten, zou ik ook wel op bloomberg tv willen verschijnen om te roepen dat de S&P naar de 400 gaat