De Beursvloer #78: Wachten met klamme handjes op opening

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 11:37 schreef superworm het volgende:
Nu móet Philips wel omlaag:

Philips roept miljoen Senseo's terug

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Sucker's Rally Approaching an End
by: Peter Cooper April 13, 2009 |

Whatever the technical reason for the 25 percent rise in the S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight percent bounce in GCC regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s rally ought to be obvious to all.

Unemployment is still rising, house prices are still falling, and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still deteriorating with total bad debts unknown except that we know they must be getting worse.

Global trade fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year. Even Mercedes car sales to the oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The collapse of the world’s second largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming

Nor do you have to look hard to see what the bad news to come might be: US banks will have to reveal all in government stress tests to be published at the end of this month; the bankruptcy of Chrysler and General Motors (GM) loom, two companies of vast importance to Main Street USA with a million jobs in jeopardy and huge borrowings to be written off by the banks.

The stock market pattern in 2008-9 has so far been a mirror image of the crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices from the autumn followed by a 25 per cent rally from March lows. In April 1930 stocks moved sideways and then they crashed another 50 per cent into the summer.

What possible reason is there for optimism to believe that history will not repeat itself? Government stimulus packages have more than likely been too small and too late to prevent another down leg in stocks, and will take time to revive the real economy, if indeed they can do so.

They might just stop the worst possible scenario but are they going to prevent the plunge downwards? Governments have not managed it so far.
Consumers and unemployment

At the commonsense level you have to ask why should an economy show signs of recovery as it lays off hundreds of thousands of people: the unemployed are not big consumers, and it frightens the hell out of people left in work who stop spending and save.

Consumer demand is the most important fundamental in modern economies and the confidence of consumers is being blown to pieces. It will take more than weasel words from US bankers and ‘green shoots’ in the waffle of President Obama to put things right.

Eventually global stock markets will reach a bottom but they are not close to having visited it just yet. Wall Street and its friends are playing investors as suckers but they are in danger of overdoing it. For once these guys are impoverished where will the next bunch of fools come from?

Goldman Sachs' (GS) results this week might well mark the top of the rally, beyond that the only way is down.

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 12:26 schreef Dave7 het volgende:

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http://seekingalpha.com/a(...)ource=hp_mostpopular

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Faber Says S&P 500 May Rise to 1,000 on Bank Earnings (Update3)

By Rita Nazareth and Ken Prewitt

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rise 17 percent to 1,000 in the next three months as government spending boosts bank profits, investor Marc Faber said.

U.S. stocks probably reached their bear market low when the S&P 500 fell to 666.79 during trading on March 6, Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, told Bloomberg Radio in an interview from Thailand.

Financial shares may increase further after the S&P 500 Banks Index jumped 25 percent on April 9, the biggest rally since at least 1989. Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among more than 30 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results this week.

“You have essentially a government that gives financials free money at the expense of the taxpayer,” Faber said. “With this free money, they may actually have decent earnings in the near future.”

Banks in the S&P 500 are forecast to post an 86 percent drop in first-quarter earnings, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profits are projected to fall 57 percent in the second quarter and 52 percent in the third before rebounding 277 percent in the year’s last three months.

Bank of America Corp. surged 15 percent to $11.02 in New York while Citigroup jumped 25 percent to $3.80, leading a gauge of 80 financial stocks to the biggest gain among 10 industry groups. The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent.

Outlook

Citigroup shares can “easily rebound” to $5 or $10 before drifting down again and possibly being wiped out, Faber said. The stock has fallen 85 percent over the last 12 months and has lost 50 percent of its value so far this year.

The S&P 500’s surge in the past month was triggered by speculation corporate profits will rebound following the government’s $12.8 trillion in pledges to rescue the financial system and stimulate the economy. Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan said last month they made money at the start of 2009, while Wells Fargo & Co. posted higher-than-estimated earnings last week.

“We’re now starting to see some clarity,” said Greg Woodard, portfolio strategist at Manning & Napier Advisors Inc., which manages $16 billion in Fairport, New York. “If some of the negative earnings news disappear, we’ll see an improvement not only in the financial sector but in the stock market as a whole.”

Bank of America climbed above $10 per share for the first time in three months as expectations the government may nationalize the company eased and estimates on home loan profits rose.

‘Overbought’

“The market very near term has become somewhat overbought and the correction should essentially follow, but I doubt it will go and make new lows in the intermediate future,” Faber said. “The lows in early March at 666 in the S&P will hold and we’ll have another push up into July.”

Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio on April 7 that the S&P 500 may drop as much as 10 percent after climbing 24 percent from 676.53 on March 9, its lowest close in 12 years. The index lost 2.4 percent that day, then climbed 5 percent over the next two. The 5 percent to 10 percent “correction” would be followed by a rally into July, Faber said in the interview.

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 12:41 schreef tony_clifton- het volgende:
Ik denk niet dat die regel deze keer zal gelden P, iedereen zit er met z'n ogen op en er wordt teveel gesleuteld aan de heropleving om zomaar die regel te kunnen toepassen...

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 23:38 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Met Randstad zit ik ook long dus ik ben benieuwd of je gelijk hebt

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 12:20 schreef UncleSam het volgende:

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Als ik het goed heb:
Long = speculeren op stijging
Short = speculeren op daling
Limiet = is iets kopen of verkopen op een vast bedrag wat jij hebt ingevoerd.
Stop order = is iets kopen tussen een koers van twee bedragen.

Call en put weet ik niet zoveel over.

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 12:59 schreef m0m0 het volgende:

ben een beetje lopen experimenteren met opties

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 12:51 schreef tony_clifton- het volgende:
Wat denken jullie eigenlijk over groene aandelen? Heb een pakket VWS, Vestas (marktleider op gebied van windmolens) dat voorlopig wel goed uitdraait...

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 13:00 schreef Mr.J het volgende:

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Anders stort je je geld gewoon even op mijn rekening, lijkt me een betere besteding.

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 12:51 schreef tony_clifton- het volgende:
Wat denken jullie eigenlijk over groene aandelen? Heb een pakket VWS, Vestas (marktleider op gebied van windmolens) dat voorlopig wel goed uitdraait...

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 13:08 schreef edwinh het volgende:
daarnet toch nog maar effe 100 shortjes aex gekocht

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 13:02 schreef Mendeljev het volgende:

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Ik denk dat dat duurzame energie en duurzaamheid an sich de nieuwe bubble gaat worden. Alleen gaan dat geen stockpicks worden, maar een hele markt die totaal over de kop zal gaan.

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 13:06 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

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zal dan waarschijnlijk ook wel wat groene potjes aanschaffen, al moet ik nog even verder onderzoek doen naar de inkomsten en rendabiliteit van sommige bedrijven. Ik ga geen centen in een bedrijf stoppen die in de hoofdzaak worden gesponsord door overheid en andere bedrijven en die dus niet in staat zijn normale nettowinsten kunnen creeeren.

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 13:06 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:
en andere bedrijven en die dus niet in staat zijn normale nettowinsten kunnen creeeren.

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 12:59 schreef m0m0 het volgende:

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Thanks!
Vertel me wat meer over opties, ben een beetje lopen experimenteren met opties en een Put gezet op de AEX voor 250 in mei. En heb nu al een rendement van -4%.
Hoe werkt het precies. (ps, heb maar 2 atuks gekocht )

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Op dinsdag 14 april 2009 13:15 schreef rvlaak_werk2 het volgende:

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Je verwacht slechte cijfers om 14:30?