De Beursvloer #72: Faber's nieuwsbrief

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Greenspan: Stocks Will Rise and Lift Economy

Wednesday, April 1, 2009 11:32 AM

By: Dan Weil Article Font Size

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says that stocks are headed higher and will take the economy with them.

“Stock markets across the globe have to be close to a turning point,” he writes in the Financial Times.

“Even if a stock market recovery is quite modest, as I suspect it will be, the turnaround may well have large (and positive) economic consequences.”

And why will stocks rise? Because they’re cheap, Greenspan says, even after their recent 18 percent rise.

“But, as history also counsels, they may get a lot cheaper before they return to more normal levels,” he writes.

“Stock prices today are being suppressed by a degree of fear not experienced since the early 20th century. But history tells us that there is a limit to how long fear can paralyze market participants.”

The economy’s downturn can’t continue forever, Greenspan points out.

“At some point, global stock prices will bottom out and rise,” he says. “A rise in global private sector equity will tend to raise the net worth of virtually all business entities.”

As a result, the economy will thrive too, he says, as stock-market strength helps open up clogged lending markets.

And “restoration of normal global lending could be as effective a stimulus as any fiscal program,” Greenspan writes.

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 19:37 schreef dramatiek het volgende:
Roubini: Go Ahead, Keep Dreaming of That "V-Shaped" Recovery
Posted Apr 01, 2009 07:30am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking

As we noted earlier, Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor actually has a surprisingly non-apocalyptic forecast for the economy: The first quarter of this year will mark the worst rate of decline, and the outlook will gradually improve from there.

We'll still be in a recession through 2009, says Roubini (in contrast to most economists, who think the economy will be growing nicely by Q4). But then, finally, the economy will begin to recover.

But what will this recovery look like? Will it be the V-shaped rocket launch that some bulls are looking for?

No.

It will be an L-shaped slog, says Roubini. The economy will grow at a depressingly slow rate for quite a while, and the stock market will tread water. We may have seen the lows on the S&P 500 (or close to it) but that doesn't mean stocks will make you any money anytime soon

Video
http://finance.yahoo.com/(...)s=xlf,%5Edji,%5Egspc

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 21:50 schreef edikt het volgende:
dow toch wel fiks in het groen atm

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 22:07 schreef Oizno het volgende:
"Dieptepunt wellicht achter de rug

Deze minder tegenvallende ontwikkelingen werden door beleggers opgevat als teken dat de Amerikaanse economie het dieptepunt van de recessie wellicht achter de rug heeft."

http://www.belegger.nl/Be(...)f_gestemd-65518.news

Nu instappen of niet?

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 23:03 schreef lammegiraf het volgende:

[..]

Zelfs dan zou ik nog niet 100% instappen. Moet zeggen dat ik zeer benieuwd ben of en hoe herstel dit jaar begint.

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 22:42 schreef Oizno het volgende:
*Gaat zitten en wacht* (bang om de boot te missen)

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Op woensdag 1 april 2009 23:26 schreef Dirk-Kuijt het volgende:
Ik heb het gevoel dat we de grootste dip al achter de rug hebben. En ik ben naar mijn mening precies op tijd ingestapt. Ik heb een zooi van die India Warrants gekocht toen ze 26 cent waard waren. En kijk eens waar ze nu staan... Op 36 cent. Ik denk dat menig belegger daar er blij mee zou zijn op dit moment.
Helaas heb ik er geen duizenden euro's in zitten